Q2 FY 2015 Earnings Transcript - National Fuel Gas Company

Transcription

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EDITED TRANSCRIPT
NFG - Q2 2015 National Fuel Gas Co Earnings Call
EVENT DATE/TIME: MAY 01, 2015 / 3:00PM GMT
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MAY 01, 2015 / 3:00PM, NFG - Q2 2015 National Fuel Gas Co Earnings Call
CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS
Brian Welsch National Fuel Gas Company - IR Director
Ron Tanski National Fuel Gas Company - President & CEO
Matt Cabell National Fuel Gas Company - SVP
Dave Bauer National Fuel Gas Company - Treasurer & Principal Financial Officer
CONFERENCE CALL PARTICIPANTS
Carl Kirst BMO Capital Markets - Analyst
Kevin Smith Raymond James & Assoc. Inc. - Analyst
Timm Schneider Evercore ISI - Analyst
Chris Sighinolfi Jefferies & Company - Analyst
PRESENTATION
Operator
Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Q2 2015 National Fuel Gas Company earnings conference call.
(Operator Instructions)
As a reminder this call is being recorded for replay purposes. I will now turn the conference over to your host for today Mr. Brian Welsch, Director
of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Brian Welsch - National Fuel Gas Company - IR Director
Thank you, Whitley, and good morning. We appreciate you joining us on today's conference call for a discussion of last evening's earnings release.
With us on the call from National Fuel Gas Company are Ron Tanski, President and Chief Executive Officer; Dave Bauer, Treasurer and Principal
Financial Officer; and Matt Cabell, President of Seneca Resources Corporation. At the end of the prepared remarks we will open up the discussion
to questions.
Last night we posted a new slide deck to our Investor Relations website. We may refer to it during today's call.
We would like to remind you that today's teleconference will contain forward-looking statements. While National Fuel's expectations, beliefs and
projections are made in good faith and are believed to have a reasonable basis, actual results may differ materially. These statements speak only
as of the date on which they are made and you may refer to last evening's earnings release for a listing of certain specific risk factors.
With that I will turn it over to Ron Tanski.
Ron Tanski - National Fuel Gas Company - President & CEO
Thanks, Brian, and good morning everyone. Given the lower commodity prices that we saw during the quarter our operating results of $86 million
reflect a really solid performance from each one of our operating segments.
2
Our utility employees did a great job running our system during another harsh winter and our customers benefited from continued low unit pricing
due to the availability of cheap supplies of shale gas. We had another winter quarter where new temperature records were set in our utility service
territory but if you recall we set records last year also. As a result, earnings in our utility business were up modestly over last year.
We continue to move forward with our plans to grow our pipeline business. We received FERC certificates for each of our West Side Expansion,
Tuscarora Lateral and Northern Access 2015 projects and construction is underway for each of those projects with targeted completion dates either
late this fiscal year or in the first quarter of next fiscal year. We're projecting an increase to our annual revenues of approximately $33 million from
these projects beginning next fiscal year.
We also submitted our formal FERC filing for our Northern Access 2016 project in mid-March. We had been in the prefiling process since last July
and we're pleased with the progress on the project so far but we recognize that we have a tight timeline to get the project in-service by our targeted
date of November 2016.
You may have noticed that we upsized our capacity on this project from 350,000 dekatherms per day to 497,000 dekatherms per day. Our engineers
were able to redesign Seneca's compression facilities to deliver gas at a higher pressure into the pipeline and this will allow Seneca to ship more
production on this project.
All of these projects are designed to move production for Seneca and other third parties out of the basin to higher priced markets. As more and
more pipeline capacity comes online we expect Seneca's pricing realizations to improve.
Seneca continues to become more efficient in drilling and completing wells. Our drilling and completion schedule is designed for Seneca to be
able to fill the firm capacity that we've taken on our Northern Access 2016 project and Transco's Atlantic Sunrise project. Until that capacity comes
online, Seneca is busy trying to find a home for some production that is otherwise subject to low spot pricing.
Low commodity prices were the biggest factor affecting our earnings for the quarter in our exploration and production business. Persistently low
prices affected our results in three ways.
First, the lower unit pricing reduced the revenues for the production that we did sell. Second, spot pricing for the production that was not committed
under a sales contract decreased to the point that we elected to curtail that production so our production volumes were lower. And third was the
ceiling test charge that we were required to take under the SEC full cost accounting rules as a result of the decrease in commodity prices over the
past 12 months.
Matt will provide some more details regarding our hedging and marketing efforts at Seneca and Dave will provide a few more details on the ceiling
test later in the call. Overall, I'm very pleased with the operations of each of our segments during the past quarter. We've continued to execute on
all our plans as we've discussed with the investment community over the past two years and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
On a macro basis we continue to see more and more drilling rigs being idled and we believe that this will help bring the current oversupply more
in balance with near-term demand. And as each new pipeline project out of the basin comes online we expect to see the basis differentials in our
production areas decrease.
We recognize that there will be some low spot pricing and curtailments that we need to deal with in the short term but we anticipated that and
our plans are designed to deal with that issue. We've got a strong balance sheet and plenty of liquidity that will allow us to follow through with
our plans.
Now I'll turn the call over to Matt.
3
Matt Cabell - National Fuel Gas Company - SVP
Thanks, Ron and good morning everyone. Fiscal second quarter Seneca produced 35.7 Bcfe, or 3% less than last year's second quarter. However,
during the second quarter of 2015 we sold only our firm volumes in the Marcellus and curtailed 13.5 Bcf or approximately 150 million cubic feet
per day of potential spot sales due to lower prices.
Absent those curtailments production would have been up 34%. We have firm sales for a substantial portion of our fiscal 2015 and fiscal 2016
production and for the majority of those firm sales we have associated hedges. For the second quarter that resulted in an after-hedging gas price
of $3.65 per Mcf.
We continue to utilize a portfolio approach to maximize the value of our significant firm transport position which has included fixed-price firm
sales starting prior to the in-service date of a new pipeline project. A year ago this approach allowed us to negotiate a contract to sell 50 million
cubic feet per day of our Lycoming production from November 2014 through October 2017 at a fixed price of $3.77. This compares favorably to
Leidy line spot prices which average $1.36 since January 1.
Last week we took another positive step in creating additional price certainty. This time for our Clermont and Tioga production which today flows
into Tennessee 300. We negotiated a structured deal which starting today, May of 2015 and extending through March 2017, adds 50 million cubic
feet per day of additional firm at a fixed price of $3.
This deal provides immediate firm sales and pricing support at an attractive level until Northern Access 2016 goes into service. Future deals we
enter into will focus on maximizing value to Seneca during the 15-year term of our capacity. And we still have some 415 million cubic feet per day
of Northern Access 2016 capacity to optimize through this portfolio approach.
Inclusive of this most recent transaction, we now have almost 100 Bcf of fiscal 2016 gas production locked in at an average price of $3.60 per Mcf.
Moving on to the Utica, in Tioga County we tested our Tract 007 Utica well at a 24-hour rate of 22.7 million cubic feet per day from a relatively short
lateral of 4,600 feet. On an initial rate per thousand feet of lateral this is one of the best IP rates for any Utica Point Pleasant well surpassing all but
a few of the high rate wells drilled in Eastern Ohio and Southwest Pennsylvania.
We hold approximately 10,500 acres in the Tract 007 area and another 15,000 acres nearby. We estimate the Utica resource potential at Tract 007
alone to be over 1 trillion cubic feet. We will likely begin development of the area in 2017 when we expect a significant improvement in Northeast
Pennsylvania spot pricing as new pipeline capacity is put into service.
We see additional Utica potential along trend at our Clermont-Rich Valley area and plan to drill two Utica wells there in fiscal 2016 in conjunction
with our ongoing Clermont Marcellus development. This will allow us to drill each Utica appraisal well on a multiwell pad and tie it into the Clermont
gathering system. This approach will enable us to materially reduce drilling and completion costs and immediately take advantage of our firm
transportation by producing our Utica appraisal wells into the Clermont Gathering System.
We anticipate the initial flow test from the first well in the third quarter of fiscal 2016 and the second well toward the end of fiscal 2016. Our three
horizontal rigs are currently all drilling Marcellus wells in the Clermont area. And we have plans to complete drill out and bring online approximately
30 new wells into the Clermont system by November when Northern Access 2015 is expected to be in-service.
Seneca holds 158 million cubic feet per day of firm transportation capacity on this project. Drilling and completion efficiencies will allow us to reach
our production targets with fewer rigs and reduced CapEx. Over the past three years we have cut our well costs by 28% while increasing the lateral
length by 41% such that our cost per foot of lateral is roughly half what it was in 2012.
Year-to-date in fiscal 2015 our average well has a completed lateral length of 7,200 feet and a total cost of $6.3 million. Because of this improved
efficiency in the second quarter of 2016 we plan to drop one horizontal rig, reducing our rig count to two. Our fiscal 2016 CapEx forecast is $400
million to $475 million, a 20% reduction as compared to fiscal 2015.
4
In summary, we are continuing to execute the plan in part due to the steps we've taken to insulate Seneca from current low natural gas prices and
takeaway constraints. We have firm sales and associated hedges for the majority of our forecasted 2015 and 2016 production.
In early fiscal 2017 we will have over 700,000 dekatherms of firm transportation to premium markets. We have a deep inventory of Marcellus drilling
locations and in some areas we have potential in two or even three shale horizons, the Marcellus, the Geneseo and of course the Utica.
And with that I will turn it over to Dave.
Dave Bauer - National Fuel Gas Company - Treasurer & Principal Financial Officer
Thank you, Matt, and good morning everyone. As you saw in last night's release second-quarter earnings were $0.20 a share, down $0.92 from last
year largely because of an $0.82 ceiling test impairment charge. Under full cost accounting rules the book value of our oil and gas properties can't
exceed the PV-10 of our reserves at any quarter-end.
Because of the significant drop in prices book value of our properties exceeded PV-10 at March 31. And therefore under the rules we were required
to write down their value.
It's important to note that this non-cash impairment charge was entirely related to the decline in 12-month average pricing. In fact, our net reserve
revisions for the quarter were a positive number.
Excluding the ceiling test charge our operating results were down from the second quarter of 2014. As Ron indicated lower commodity prices were
the main driver of our weaker results. After hedging oil prices were down nearly $30 a barrel and gas prices were down $0.24 per Mcf. Combined
these price drops impacted earnings by about $0.22 per share.
Putting aside the drop in commodity prices it was a good quarter for the Company particularly at our regulated businesses. In the Pipeline and
Storage segment revenues were up $3 million over our internal estimates. As in prior quarters we continue to see high demand for short-term
transportation on our system.
Some of it was weather related but most was producer volumes looking to get out of the basin. Though it's not obvious from last night's release
our Utility had a terrific quarter as well. The weather in our Pennsylvania service territory while only 2.5% colder than last year was 23% colder than
normal which added about $0.04 per share to earnings relative to our forecast and remember our forecast assumes normal weather.
Also earnings in our New York jurisdiction benefited from a $4.5 million pretax adjustment that was recorded to true-up a receivable from customers
for a state regulatory assessment.
Moving to the E&P business, Seneca's focus on drilling and completion efficiencies have driven well cost down leading to improved F&D costs and
a consistent decline in our DD&A rate which dropped from $1.66 in the first quarter of fiscal 2015 to the $1.61 we saw this quarter. A good example
of these efficiencies is our Clermont/Rich Valley area where our proved undeveloped reserves are booked at an average F&D cost of $0.90 per Mcf.
That's based upon historical capital costs and P90 EURs.
Continued operational efficiencies coupled with vendor concessions should continue to drive our Clermont F&D costs downward.
Looking forward our new earnings range for fiscal 2015 is $2.75 to $2.90 per share. It's important to note that our updated guidance excludes both
the ceiling test charge we recorded this quarter and any future ceiling test impairments we may record later in the year.
If oil and natural gas prices do not recover significantly from the current strip we do expect further impairments. In addition to reflecting our results
for the second quarter our guidance incorporates several other changes and assumptions. Seneca's updated production forecast is now 155 to
175 Bcfe.
5
We lowered the high-end of our previous 155 to 190 Bcfe range to reflect the 13.5 Bcf of estimated curtailments for the second quarter. The
difference between the high and low end of our production range is driven entirely by curtailments. The low-end assumes we curtail 100% of our
spot production while the high-end assumes we have no curtailments.
We've also updated our commodity price assumptions. Our forecast now reflects a NYMEX oil price of $60 a barrel for the last six months of the
year, up from $50 in our previous forecast.
However, the earnings impact of this change will be fairly minimal. For one, we are fairly well hedged for the last six months of the year, about 60%.
And in addition refinery outages in Southern California have weakened physical pricing differentials below our prior forecast which offset some
of the uplift from the higher WTI prices.
Turning to natural gas we're assuming a $2.75 per Mcf NYMEX price for the last six months of the fiscal year, down from $3. However, because
substantially all of Seneca's firm sales have been hedged changes in NYMEX gas prices will have a minimal impact on our earnings for the second
half of the year.
With respect to spot prices our updated guidance assumes we sell our Marcellus spot production for between $1.75 and $2 per Mcf, down $0.25
from our previous guidance. The midpoint of our new production guidance assumes that for the last six months of the year we have about 10 Bcf
of spot sales of which about 6 Bcf is from our own operations and 4 Bcf is from our joint venture with EOG Resources.
Therefore based on that 10 Bcf of spot sales every $0.25 in the average spot price will impact earnings by about $0.02 per share. And as a reminder
because we curtail production when prices get too low this spot price assumption is only for the volumes we actually sell into the market.
Seneca should see some improvement in its per unit operating expenses during the last two quarters of the fiscal year. LOE expense for the second
quarter was $1.16 per Mcfe, up from $0.97 in the first quarter.
While some of that increase was attributable to winter road maintenance in the Eastern Development Area. Most of it was due to the 13.5 Bcf of
pricing-related curtailments. Absent those curtailment per unit LOE would have been in the low dollar per Mcfe area.
Looking forward assuming the 165 Bcfe midpoint of Seneca's production guidance we expect our full-year LOE expense will be a little over the
midpoint of our $1 to $1.10 per Mcfe of guidance. We're now forecasting Seneca's per unit DD&A rate at a range of $1.55 to $1.65 per Mcfe. As I
mentioned earlier lower drilling and completion costs have had a favorable impact on Seneca's rate and we expect that trend will continue.
Also it's important to note that while our DD&A guidance reflects the impact of the ceiling test impairment we recorded this quarter it does not
incorporate any future ceiling test charges.
Lastly, in the Pipeline and Storage segment on the strength of an excellent second quarter and the prospects for continued demand for short-term
transportation services we're upping our expected revenues to a range of $280 million to $290 million. With respect to financing needs our overall
plans have not changed. Consolidated capital spending for fiscal 2015 is expected to be in the range of $990 million to $1.155 billion unchanged
from our previous guidance.
We had a good second quarter and have revised a number of earnings-related assumptions but given our high hedge percentage we're not
expecting any significant change in cash from operations. We still expect an outspend that's in the range of $450 million which we're planning to
finance with a long-term debt issuance in the months to come. The ultimate timing of that issuance will depend on market conditions.
With that I will close and ask the operator to open the line for questions.
6
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Carl Kirst, BMO Capital.
Carl Kirst - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst
Thank you, good morning everybody and nice results. Matt, you had mentioned the 50 million a day of new hedging beginning today which is
certainly great to see.
Just for clarity is that a netback? Is that an NYMEX and I guess also was there any costs associated with entering into that?
Yes, so Carl that's a realized price. We'll get $3 for our gas delivered at the point where the Clermont System hits Transco, I mean hits TGP.
There's more to the deal. There's also 75 million a day of indexed sales beginning in April 2017. It goes for 7.5 years at that point.
That 75 million will be at a Dawn Index and it's got a cap of $4. So essentially what we get is a very favorable price, even at that cap of $4 we're at
a 41% IRR for our Clermont production. And then we get this very favorable price in the near-term of $3.
And Matt, that $4 cap in the future that would be a $4 Dawn price?
It's a little more complicated than that but we actually get the benefit of a premium at Dawn relative to NYMEX. And we could get hurt a little on
a deficit to NYMEX. So think of it as a $4 NYMEX cap but it's priced at Dawn, if that makes sense.
No, that is helpful. Thank you.
Question, a follow-up question on Northern Access 2016 and I guess generally we've certainly seen infrastructure get impacted by regulatory
delays, etc. and I may be wrong but I thought I potentially caught something with the Fish and Wildlife Service requesting the FERC do an EIS versus
an EA. And I guess maybe the question here really is do you guys see any potential delay risk beyond the 2016, late 2016 in-service date at this
point?
Well, Carl, there's always a little bit of risk. As a matter of fact the last three certificates that we got I mean those were delayed about a month from
when we had originally expected them, maybe a month or two.
7
It put us a little bit under the gun to get timber cleared before we ran into a moratorium because of the long-eared bat migration but we were able
to get that done for those three projects. I don't -- we're not seeing it as a terribly big risk but obviously that's something that we've got to keep
our eye on.
The good thing about this project is there's a lot of rights-of-way, existing rights-of-way that we're following. We've only got 90 I think a little over
90 miles of newbuild right-of-way and then we've got the rights-of-way secured for the bulk of that. So sure, there's always some risk but we think
that's manageable.
Okay. Nothing you're seeing as you said terribly big risk so that's very helpful, Ron. Thank you.
Yes, no showstoppers.
Okay and then maybe lastly just to ask with the dropping because of the efficiencies with the dropping of the rigs from three rigs to two rigs and
taking the CapEx down for 2016, does that in any way impact your timing of looking at an MLP as a potential funding solution in as much as you
guys have historically looked at that through a funding lens?
I think as we have said before, Carl the MLP option is more tied to our spending in the Pipeline and Storage segment. So we're still targeting that
and looking at the receipt of a certificate for Northern Access 2016 and the funding of that $450 million project with that as an option there rather
than funding Seneca's operations.
Seneca with the drop we're hoping to be have pretty much living within cash flow in 2016. So it's really the pipeline project that's determining that
rather than Seneca's drilling.
Perfect. Thank you so much.
Operator
Kevin Smith, Raymond James & Assoc. Inc.
Kevin Smith - Raymond James & Assoc. Inc. - Analyst
Good morning.
8
Good morning, Kevin.
Matt, are there any structural probems curtailing this month's production? I know it really is more impactful on the well side but just trying to think,
is there the possibility of losing reservoir pressure having to do with any sort of recompletions when you're putting that much back?
Short answer is no - really no risk, and in fact the way we determine what and when we're going to curtail, the first priority is always no negative
impact to long-term operations.
Okay, great. And then given the lower well costs and completion are we going to see any savings show up in your Capex budget in the form of
less spending this year or how are we thinking about that?
I think our efficiency gains and our vendor negotiations are all reflected in the current CapEx guidance.
Okay, that's all I had. Thank you.
Operator
Timm Schneider, Evercore.
Timm Schneider - Evercore ISI - Analyst
Hey, good morning guys. I just had a question real quick, can you run us through a timeline of the Certificates for Northern Access 2016? And with
that at which point would you guys have to start the initiating the MLP process because there is obviously a quiet period so all that takes a while
and then if you decide not to go the MLP route what's the funding plan for Northern Access alternatively?
Well we were maybe three weeks late or so with the filing for the Certificate from our original schedule. But we're still looking at a first calendar
quarter 2016 receipt, say January of 2016.
And we'll have obviously plenty of liquidity on our short-term lines of credit to the extent we needed a prepurchase or acquire any pipeline or pipe
or hardware for the project. But that's pretty much the timeline we're still looking for working toward our examination or let's say the details of an
MLP option.
9
To the extent we chose not to do an MLP there is any number of other say either joint venture on the Upstream so that if we didn't spend our own
money drilling the wells with Seneca, we could use the joint venture funds for that and then allocate that capital to the pipeline. But as we look at
it right now our plans still envision the MLP is probably the most likely way of financing the building of Northern Access 2016.
Timm Schneider - Evercore ISI - Analyst
Okay, got it. Thank you.
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Chris Sighinolfi, Jefferies.
Chris Sighinolfi - Jefferies & Company - Analyst
Hey Ron, how are you? Thanks for the time this morning.
I have a couple of follow-up questions. I guess for Matt first. Just trying to understand the curtailment range.
I know Dave spoke about what remains in terms of the bucket of curtailments for the year but just trying to jive that with what we heard last quarter.
Last quarter for example you guys gave a 35 Bcf range talking about that's what remained for the year. We saw 13.5 last quarter and the top end
of the guidance came down by about that amount.
But then you added this contract that you were talking with Carl about for order of magnitude 7 Bcf for the rest of the year. Does that like in effect
mean the range got a little bit wider or how do we think about the context of that contract with the firm sales, the fixed-price sales contract with
that? Just help me understand that.
I guess the way I would put it is the firm contract gave us complete certainty, well maybe complete is the wrong word, but essentially gave us
certainty around the bottom end of the guidance by adding 7.5 Bcf of firm. In fact I would say with some certainty we would be above that bottom
end of guidance at least a little.
Okay that's helpful.
Does that answer your question?
It does. Well, I guess stated another way would I like tally everything up at this point? It seems to me anyway that if we hadn't of had the price
situation that we had the initial range that you gave for the year stands to reason we would be in the upper half of that pretty comfortably.
10
That's true. Yes.
Okay. And then with regard I guess a follow-on to Kevin's question about the impact of curtailment when you speak about the JV with EOG who
makes the decisions on that whether or not to sell spot?
Is that you or is that a discussion with them? How does that process work? I realize it's small but I was just curious.
EOG makes that decision. I think the contract probably would allow us to take our gas in kind maybe if they wanted to curtail and we wanted to
produce. But generally what we do is we just they just sell that gas and we get a revenue stream from them.
Okay. And Ron, I know we've spoken a lot about the cost reductions you guys have been able to achieve on the Upstream side.
Williams was talking on their call yesterday about some cost improvement on one of their major projects, the Atlantic Sunrise project, due to
everything from labor availability to steel costs coming down. I'm just wondering as it pertains to Northern Access 2016 being the largest project
you guys will undertake are there opportunities do you think in this environment for the cost as advertised on that system to come down at all?
Well, there may be some Chris but I guess what's interesting is while we were in the planning stages for that project we had to revise our estimates
up because of bids from the contractors, initial bids that were coming in that were higher than our original estimates. Now you're right the things
in the industry certainly on the Upstream side have changed but it hasn't changed all that much on the Midstream side.
There's a lot of projects out there that are on the drawing boards. And recently at an INGAA meeting which was a joint meeting with the Foundation,
which all the members are mostly pipeline contractors, everyone is very upbeat about their business and they have a lot of business. So we might
see some but I wouldn't count on an order of magnitude change in the overall pricing for that project.
Okay, great. Thanks again for the time this morning.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our Q&A. I will now turn the call back over to Brian for closing remarks.
Brian Welsch - National Fuel Gas Company - IR Director
Thank you, Whitley. We'd like to thank everyone for taking the time to be with us today.
11
A replay of this call will be available at approximately 3 p.m. Eastern time on both our website and by telephone and will run through the close of
business on Friday, May 8, 2015. To access the replay online please visit our Investor Relations website at investor.nationalfuelgas.com and to access
by telephone call 1-888-286-8010 and enter passcode 60939904.
This concludes our conference call for today. Thank you and goodbye.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation.
You may now disconnect. Have a great day.
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12

Q2 FY 2015 Earnings Transcript - National Fuel Gas Company

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