Enable Midstream Partners, LP

Transcription

Enable Midstream Partners, LP
Enable Midstream Partners, LP
First Quarter 2015 Conference Call
May 6, 2015
Forward-looking Statements
This presentation and the oral statements made in connection herewith may contain “forward-looking statements” within the
meaning of the securities laws. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, regarding Enable Midstream Partners’
(“Enable”) strategy, future operations, financial position, estimated revenues, projected costs, prospects, plans and objectives of
management are forward-looking statements. These statements often include the words “could,” “believe,” “anticipate,” “intend,”
“estimate,” “expect,” “project,” “forecast” and similar expressions and are intended to identify forward-looking statements, although
not all forward-looking statements contain such identifying words. These forward-looking statements are based on Enable’s current
expectations and assumptions about future events and are based on currently available information as to the outcome and timing of
future events. Enable assumes no obligation to and does not intend to update any forward-looking statements included
herein. When considering forward-looking statements, you should keep in mind the risk factors and other cautionary statements
described under the heading “Risk Factors” included in our SEC filings. Enable cautions you that these forward-looking statements
are subject to all of the risks and uncertainties, most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond its control,
incident to the ownership, operation and development of natural gas and crude oil infrastructure assets. These risks include, but
are not limited to, contract renewal risk, commodity price risk, environmental risks, operating risks, regulatory changes and the other
risks described under “Risk Factors” in our SEC filings. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties occur, or should
underlying assumptions prove incorrect, Enable’s actual results and plans could differ materially from those expressed in any
forward-looking statements.
2
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
The Partnership has included the non-GAAP financial measures gross margin, Adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow
in this presentation based on information in its condensed combined and consolidated financial statements.
Gross margin, Adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow are supplemental financial measures that management and
external users of the Partnership’s financial statements, such as industry analysts, investors, lenders and rating agencies may use,
to assess:
• The Partnership’s operating performance as compared to those of other publicly traded partnerships in the midstream energy
industry, without regard to capital structure or historical cost basis;
• The ability of the Partnership’s assets to generate sufficient cash flow to make distributions to its partners;
• The Partnership’s ability to incur and service debt and fund capital expenditures; and
• The viability of acquisitions and other capital expenditure projects and the returns on investment of various investment
opportunities.
The appendix to this presentation includes a reconciliation of gross margin to revenues, Adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash
flow to net income attributable to controlling interest, and Adjusted EBITDA to net cash provided by operating activities, the most
directly comparable GAAP financial measures, on a historical basis, as applicable, for each of the periods indicated. The
Partnership believes that the presentation of gross margin, Adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow provides information useful
to investors in assessing its financial condition and results of operations. Gross margin, Adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash
flow should not be considered as alternatives to net income, operating income, revenue, cash from operations or any other measure
of financial performance or liquidity presented in accordance with GAAP. Gross margin, Adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash
flow have important limitations as analytical tools because they exclude some but not all items that affect the most directly
comparable GAAP measures. Additionally, because gross margin, Adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow may be defined
differently by other companies in the Partnership’s industry, its definitions of gross margin, Adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash
flow may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies, thereby diminishing their utility.
3
First Quarter 2015 Highlights
►
Started full operations of the Bradley Plant in the
SCOOP and the Bear Den Crude Oil and
Produced Water Gathering System in the Bakken
►
Began commissioning of our second Bakken crude
gathering system
►
Conducted an open season on EGT
►
Completed an organizational restructuring
►
Announced a first quarter 2015 distribution of
$0.3125/unit
►

1.2% increase over fourth quarter 2014 distribution

8.7% increase over the partnership’s minimum
quarter distribution
On May 1, 2015, acquired an $80 million gas
gathering system in the Texas Panhandle

4
Acquisition is immediately accretive
Current Market Update
Many plays across Enable’s footprint continue to provide strong returns for producers, including
the Bakken, SCOOP and Cana Woodford plays
►
►
Production in these plays drives growth across Enable’s value chain – from building more gathering and
processing capacity to holding an open season for expansion of interstate transportation
►
The Haynesville Shale is starting to see growing natural gas output again1, despite low natural gas prices,
as drilling costs decline and new demand develops in Gulf Coast markets
End-user opportunities continue to develop on and around our transportation systems driven by
lower gas prices, including recent announcements of new natural gas-fired power generation
►
►
Natural gas consumption in the power sector is projected to grow by 11.5% in 2015 and the industrial sector
consumption to increase by 4.9% in 20152
►
Contango in natural gas markets is increasing the value of natural gas storage
►
Approximately 227 rigs are currently operating in the counties in which Enable operates or is
constructing assets as of April 29, 2015, a decrease of approximately 119 rigs since February 13,
20153
The largest decline is in the Bakken where Enable’s anchor customer, XTO Energy, still remains active
►
Enable has seen trends of producers maintaining current drilling schedules in core plays and continuing with
drilling after initially reducing plans
Enable expects that changing markets and supply dynamics will continue to create opportunities
►
5
►
1.
2.
3.
April 2015 U. S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Drilling Productivity Report
EIA Short-term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook April 2015
Per Drillinginfo as of April 29, 2015
By-play Return Analysis
►
Enable’s growth areas still rank as some of the highest returning plays in the country
►
Enable is positioned in the core of the Bakken and SCOOP plays where returns are
strongest
Internal Rate of Returns for Major Plays
Plays with Enable assets
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Base Case
6
20% Completed Well Costs Reduction
Gas Price = 12 month forward average curve for each regional pricing point (range $1.92 - $2.91/Mcf)
Oil Price = 12 month forward average WTI +/- differential (range $38.82-$54.24/barrel)
NGL Prices = weighted average $/barrel, 12-mo forward average Mt. Belvieu prices (range $19.25-$26.36/barrel)
Source: Bentek
SCOOP Overview
►
SCOOP breakeven prices estimated at $41-$47 per barrel for the SCOOP Core in Grady, Garvin and
Stephens Counties of Oklahoma
►
Over $63 billion remaining to be spent in the SCOOP, STACK and Cana footprint through 2025 with
approximately $19 billion related to investments in the SCOOP Core
►
SCOOP production expected to more than double over 10 years
►
Enable has significant, long-term contracts and acreage dedications with the largest leaseholders and
most active operators in the play
►
Currently, 18 rigs in the SCOOP area are drilling wells scheduled to be connected to Enable’s
gathering systems
Remaining Producer Capex by Sub-play
SCOOP Production Outlook
$ billions
1,400
$19
$13
$8
$5
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Cana WDFD
Dry Gas
SCOOP
WDFD Oil
SCOOP WDFD
Condensate
SCOOP
Ardmore WDFD
Cana WDFD
Core
STACK
SCOOP Core
$3
$3
$1
Cana WDFD
Liquids-Rich
$6
SCOOP
WDFD Gas
$7
Production (mboe/d)
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Gas
NGL
Crude & Condensate
Well-Positioned in the SCOOP
Enable is the leading midstream provider in the SCOOP and is well-positioned to
continue to capture additional volume growth
Enable continues to build out gathering,
compression, processing and transportation
infrastructure.
►
SCOOP Footprint and Activity1
►
Completed the 200 MMcf/d Bradley Plant
in the first quarter of 2015 in the heart of
the SCOOP
►
Over 130,000 total HP of compression
installed
►
Bradley Lateral estimated to be in service
in the fourth quarter of 2015
►
On target to add another 200 MMcf/d natural gas processing plant by the first quarter of 2016 to
support volume growth
►
Still expect additional transportation takeaway capacity will be needed as volumes grow
►
Enable holds the leading position in processing capacity in the SCOOP, STACK and Cana region2
1.
2.
Per Drillinginfo as of April 29, 2015
Source: Wood Mackenzie
8
Texas Panhandle Acquisition
On May 1, 2015, Enable purchased a natural gas gathering system in the Texas
Panhandle from Monarch Natural Gas for $80 million
►
Acquisition is immediately accretive
►
A strategic extension of Enable’s assets into the
Anadarko Cleveland play; an active, top-tier
return play located in Hemphill and Lipscomb
counties in the Texas Panhandle
►
Provides the ability to tie into Enable’s existing
“super-header” system
►
Underpinned with a long-term dedication from an
anchor producer of approximately 35,000 net
acres and allows Enable to target additional third
party producers
►
System includes approximately 88 miles of
recently built gathering pipeline and more than
5,000 horsepower of compression
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Acquisition Extends Texas Panhandle Footprint
Anadarko Basin Activity
Producers remain active across Enable’s footprint in the Anadarko Basin
►
Significant drilling activity continues in
the SCOOP but producers also remain
active throughout Enable’s Anadarko
footprint
►
Customers remain active in the
Northwest Cana area in Blaine, Custer
and Dewey counties of Oklahoma,
including one customer that recently
moved four rigs into the area supported
by a drilling carry
►
Customers also remain active in the
Granite Wash, including one customer
currently running two rigs in the play
with plans to expand up to eight rigs
1. Per Drillinginfo as of April 29, 2015
10
Anadarko Footprint and Activity1
Monarch
Transportation and Storage Update
Open Season Update
►
In the first quarter, Enable announced an open season on EGT for additional transportation options
from receipt points in Oklahoma to Bennington, Oklahoma, and Perryville, Louisiana
►
Received a positive response and currently evaluating bids received
►
This additional capacity would enhance Enable’s leading position to provide transport services from
the Anadarko basin to key downstream markets
Market Update
►
Power plant and LDC loads account for over 5.0
Bcf/d on our systems
►
Enable is well-positioned to capture additional
demand with over 45 coal-fired plants located
within a 50-mile radius of our pipelines
►
Within a 50 mile radius are another 60+ units
totaling 6+ Bcf/d of gas fired capacity that is not
connected to Enable
1. Power Plant locations per the EIA
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Power Plants Near Enable’s Footprint1
Bakken Update
Asset Update
Enable recently announced that its Bear Den Crude Oil and Produced Water Gathering System in
North Dakota is fully operational
►
►
System began construction in August 2013 with initial segments of the system starting service
in November 2013
►
Provides services to producer XTO Energy Inc. in its Little Missouri Field and will have a
maximum throughput of 19,500 Bbl/d
In February of 2015, Enable began commissioning of its second crude oil and produced water
gathering system, the Nesson System, and anticipates the system’s full capacity of 30,000 Bbl/d will
be available by the end of 2015
►
Bakken Footprint and Activity2
Enable continues to add origin points and is looking
to bring non-system barrels onto existing systems
►
Market Update
►
93% of the active rigs in North Dakota are active in
counties in which the partnership operates or is
constructing assets1
►
XTO, Enable’s top customer in the Bakken, is the
most active producer in North Dakota with 12 rigs
running in the state1
1.
2.
Per North Dakota’s Department of Mineral Resources website as of April 28, 2015
Per Drillinginfo as of April 29, 2015
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Growth Strategy
►
Capture organic growth
opportunities in our core basins
►
Extend the value chain from
wellhead to end users in our core
commodities of gas, NGLs and
crude
►
Establish a presence in high-growth
basins
►
Develop a meaningful and
competitive position in any basin
where we participate
►
Capture additional market demand
on and around our system
►
Maximize earnings stability by
increasing fee-based margin
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First Quarter Operating Statistics
Q1 2015
Q1 2014
Gathered volumes (TBtu/d)
3.18
3.31
Natural gas processed volumes (TBtu/d)
1.68
1.44
NGLs produced (MBbls/d)1
65.00
65.28
Condensate sold (MBbls/d)
5.96
5.15
Crude Oil – Gathered Volumes (MBbl/d)
6.72
1.00
Transportation volumes (TBtu/d)
5.72
5.55
Interstate firm contracted capacity (Bcf/d)
7.82
7.93
Intrastate transported volumes (TBtu/d)
1.84
1.57
1.
14
Excludes condensate
First Quarter Results
Q1 2015
Q1 2014
$324
$369
Gathering and Processing
$179
$207
Transportation and Storage
$145
$162
$130
$126
$91
$149
$204
$228
Adjusted Interest Expense, net
$22
$15
Maintenance Capital
$39
$30
Distributable Cash Flow
$143
$183
Expansion Capital
$200
$119
$ in millions
Gross Margin
Operation and Maintenance Expense
Net Income 1
Adjusted EBITDA
1.
15
Net income attributable to Enable Midstream Partners, LP
2015 Outlook
Feb 18, 2015
2015 Outlook
May 6, 2015
2015 Outlook
Natural Gas Gathered Volumes (TBtu/d)
3.1 – 3.3
3.1 – 3.3
Natural Gas Processed Volumes (TBtu/d)
1.6 – 1.8
1.7 – 1.9
20.0 – 22.0
13.0 – 15.0
Adjusted EBITDA
$800 – $860
$800 – $840
Adjusted Interest Expense, net
$95 – $105
$100 – $110
Maintenance Capital
$140 – $160
$140 – $160
Distributable Cash Flow
$540 – $590
$540 – $590
3% – 7%
3% – 7%
6% – 8%
6% – 8%
1.0x – 1.08x
1.0x – 1.08x
$ in millions, except volume numbers
Crude Oil – Gathered Volumes (MBbl/d)
Per-unit Distribution Growth 1
Per-unit Distribution Growth from MQD 2
Coverage Ratio
2015 guidance centered around the following price assumptions:
• Natural Gas (Henry Hub) at $2.80/MMBtu (compared to $2.85/MMBtu on February 18, 2015)
• Natural Gas Liquids Composite3: Mont Belvieu, Texas at $.48/gal; Conway, Kansas at $.45/gal (compared to $.47/gal and $.46/gal ,
respectively, on February 18, 2015)
• Crude Oil (WTI) at $56.00/Bbl (compared to $52.50 on February 18, 2015)
1.
16
2.
3.
Distribution growth calculated as the growth rate from Enable’s $0.30875 fourth quarter 2014 distribution to Enable's projected fourth quarter 2015
distribution
Distribution growth calculated as the compound annual growth rate from Enable’s minimum quarterly distribution of $0.2875 per unit through the fourth
quarter of 2015 (7 quarterly compounding periods)
Natural gas liquids composite based on an assumed composition of 45%, 30%, 10%, 5%, and 10% for ethane, propane, normal butane, isobutane and
natural gasoline, respectively.
Expansion Capital Outlook
$ in millions
Contracted Expansion
Acquisitions
Identified Opportunities
Total
►
17
May 6, 2015
2015 Outlook
$600 – $800
$600 – $800
–
$80
$0 – $300
$0 – $300
$600 – $1,100
$680 – $1,180
Contracted Expansion includes:
►
►
Feb 18, 2015
2015 Outlook
Gathering, compression and processing infrastructure to support projected volume growth from current contracts and
acreage dedications, including infrastructure in the SCOOP, Bakken and Greater Granite Wash plays
Identified Opportunities include transportation and G&P projects in late-stage negotiation, such as:
►
Additional Bakken crude gathering expansions
►
Anadarko gas gathering and processing expansions
►
New end-user transportation service and market access pipeline opportunities
►
NGL transportation infrastructure
Commodity Exposure
►
Enable targets fee-based contracts on a firm basis, when possible
►
Some gathering and processing contracts have provisions to protect against low
commodity price environments and volume decreases
►
Commodity sensitivities for second quarter 2015 through fourth quarter 2015, including the
impact of hedges:
►
A 10% increase or decrease in the price of natural gas from forecasted levels would result in an increase or decrease
of approximately $6 million in gross margin
►
A 10% increase or decrease in the price of NGLs and condensate from forecasted levels would result in an increase
or decrease of approximately $1 million in gross margin
Q1 2015 – Q4 2015 Fee-Based Margin Profile1
Commodity
6%
Q2 – Q4 2015
Natural Gas2
11%
~94% feebased or
hedged
Q2 2015 – Q4 2015 Commodity Hedging Summary
53%
30%
Exposure Hedged (%)
66%
Average Hedge Price ($/MMBtu)
$3.23
Crude3
Exposure Hedged (%)
Average Hedge Price ($/Bbl)
79%
$59.16
Propane
18
Firm/MVC Fee-based
Other Fee-based
Commodity-based Hedged
Commodity-based Unhedged
1.
2.
3.
Exposure Hedged (%)
81%
Average Hedge Price ($/gal)
$0.58
Percentages in pie charts based on Gross Margin contribution
Excludes basis not matched with NYMEX and natural gas shrink associated with ethane spread positions
Enable hedges condensate exposure with crude
Enable is Well-positioned for the Future
►
Investment grade ratings, low leverage and substantial liquidity
►
Significant fee-based margin
►
Hedging program provides downside protection
►
Integrated and scalable assets in top-tier basins
►
High-quality customers
►
Seasoned management team
►
Solid growth strategy driven by organic opportunities and capacity
for asset acquisitions
19
Question and Answer
Question & Answer
20
Appendix
21
Appendix
Non-GAAP Reconciliations
3 Months Ended
March 31,
2015
2014
Revenues
616
1,002
Cost of goods sold, excluding depreciation and amortization
292
633
Gross Margin
324
369
91
149
Depreciation and amortization expense
73
67
Interest expense, net of interest income
20
14
1
1
185
231
Distributions from equity method affiliates
12
3
Other non-cash losses
14
—
Other non-cash gains
—
(3)
Equity in earnings of equity method affiliates
(7)
(3)
204
228
(22)
(15)
Maintenance capital expenditures
(39)
(30)
Distributable cash flow
143
183
Net income attributable to Enable Midstream Partners, LP
Add:
Income tax expense
EBITDA
Add:
Less:
Adjusted EBITDA
Less:
Adjusted interest expense, net
22
1