full report - Profindo International Securities

COMPANY NOTES
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia TBK
(TLKM:IJ)
Bayu Cahyadi
[email protected]
MARKET CAP
IDR 285.77 TRILLION
SHARES OS
100.8 BILLION SHARES
CURRENT PRICE
IDR 2835/SHARE
TARGET PRICE
IDR 3338/SHARE
UP/DOWNSIDE
+17.74%
RATING
BUY
SUSTAINING THE SUPPLY LEADER POSITION
FY14 Revenue increased 8.1% yoy to IDR 89.7 tn while Bottom Line up
slightly by 3% yoy to IDR 14.6 tn. The result was quite amazing,
mention that XL and Indosat inked negative result. Look forward, the
company stays optimistic in 2015 in beating the industry, which now
becomes more addictive to the Data & Internet. In a slow growth
industry, it is rare to have growing company like Telkom. Recent
market correction gives investors a buying opportunity with a Target
Price of 3338/share, 21.8x PE FY15F.
FY14 Result: Higher than Industry
Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk, the biggest telecommunication company in Indonesia,
has been successfully expanding its business on the back of intense competition in the
industry. Consolidated FY14 revenue grew by 8.1% yoy to IDR 89.7 tn while Telkomsel
Revenue grew by 10.4% yoy to IDR 66.3 tn. Moreover, EBITDA margin stayed strong at
51.1% (consolidated).
While revenue was growing better than the industry, the company has been
attracting more users. Full Year 2014, Broadband users grew 12.1% yoy to 71.3
million, cellular subscriber grew 6.9% to 140.6 million and mobile data user grew by
12.1% yoy to 67.9 million. The company stated the optimism that the subscribers
number will grow even more in the future due to high quality service provided.
At the end of the day, market will look wisely on the bottom line. Telkom’s net profit
was up 3% yoy to IDR 14.6 tn while EBITDA increased by 9.7% yoy to IDR 45.8 tn.
Jump to the conclusion, we believe that the result is quite satisfying investors as the
other players in the market such as Indosat and XL stated negative bottom line.
Source: Company
April 2, 2015
www.profindo.com
Focusing on Data & Internet in 2015
Since we are now facing 2015, enough for 2014 result discussion. In 2015, the
company believes that revenue from data, internet and IT growth will boost the
overall revenue. The optimism comes from rapid increase smart phone users in
Indonesia. While cellular revenue is predicted to be stagnant, overall revenue is
projected to be higher than the industry. Last time, Telkom forecasted IDR 100 Trillion
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk
FY15 revenue, +11.5% yoy. During our visit to the company, the corporate secretary
did not confirm the forecast number. But, he said that Telkom is very optimistic to
grow above the market growth.
We estimate that the bottom line FY15F should be around IDR 15.45 tn, +5.56% due
to lower profit margin by ~1% due to higher transportation, depreciation and space
rental costs. Those higher costs are for expanding company’s infrastructure in order
to maintain company’s status as “Supply Leader” in the industry.
Jump to valuation, we estimate that the equity fair value should be at IDR 336.5 tn or
3338/share, valued at PER 21.8x FY15F.
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PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk
KANTOR PUSAT
KANTOR CABANG BANDUNG
http://www.profindo.com
Gedung Permata Kuningan, Lt. 19
Jl. Kuningan Mulia, Kav. 9C, Guntur
Setiabudi
Jakarta Selatan 12980
Phone : +62 21 8378 0888
Fax
: +62 21 8378 0889
Jl. Sunda No. 50B
Bandung, Jawa Barat
Phone : +62 22 420 2678
Fax
: +62 22 420 2676
EMAIL :
[email protected]
[email protected]
DISCLAIMER
This research report is prepared by PT PROFINDO INTERNATIONAL SECURITIES for information purposes only and is
not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or
other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance,
need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all
investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this
report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be
independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers
independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).
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