Know More - HDFC Securities

SECTOR UPDATE
15 APR 2015
MCHI Exhibition
Dream home remains a dream?
We attended MCHI Navi Mumbai & Mumbai - Apr’15
exhibition and interacted with about 50 developers
showcasing 3,500 properties across Navi Mumbai &
Mumbai. The general mood amongst developers was
that of optimism, which reflected in average Navi
Mumbai price increase of 10% across location’s and
20-25% in some key pockets of Ulwe & Kharghar
whilst Mumbai projects saw muted price increase of
0-3%. Old projects continue to be marketed at 1030% higher prices on average (vs Oct-13 MCHI Navi
Mumbai exhibition, Oct-14 Mumbai MCHI exhibition)
there was pick up in newer launches with pricing at
par with under construction projects.
Obviously, at these prices there was limited buying
interest. Checks with 4-5 housing finance companies
suggest that mortgage rates range between 9.85.110.25% for new housing loan, which is a cut of 25bps.
With such high appreciation in Navi Mumbai &
Mumbai, Thane seems to be better placed to capture
incremental housing demand. Oberoi Realty (OBER
IN, Mkt cap Rs99bn, Not Rated) & Kolte Patil (KPDL
IN, mkt cap Rs17bn, Not rated) remain our top
sectoral picks amongst Western India developers.

Parikshit D Kandpal
[email protected]
+91-22-6171-7317
Price appreciation 5-25% across Kharghar & Ulwe, 510% rest of Navi Mumbai, 3% average in Mumbai &
Suburbs : We have seen maximum price appreciation
across Kharghar (5-18%) & Ulwe (5-25%) on
expectation of upcoming infrastructure projects (new
Airport, Suburban rail & Trans harbor link). Dronagiri
the node closest to the Trans-harbour link is witnessing
higher volume of new launches with prices ranging
Rs4,200-5,000/sqft,
despite
not
having
any
infrastructure in place. One developer (which
commands high premium) is expecting to launch
Dronagiri project at Rs6,000/sqft. In case of Mumbai,
average prices increase was ~3% with highest price
appreciation in Mulund (~5%).

Ulwe & Panvel still in the affordable zone, despite 525% hike, Mumbai new supply largely concentrated in
Mulund & Thane : With the Navi Mumbai Airport
getting final approvals, the project seems to be back on
track and with Environment Clearance for transharbour link in place, the property price in Ulwe has
seen a 5-25% price appreciation. The average price
now ranges Rs5,200-8,000/sqft (Rs6,000/sqft), still
Ulwe remains the only affordable market in the entire
Navi Mumbai Realty. Mulund is witnessing high supply
~10mn sqft of new launches, despite this the average
prices have moved higher by 5%.

Rest of Navi Mumbai – witnessed 3-10% price
appreciation : Panvel saw some new projects going on
ground, 42 acres new township by Paradise at launch
price of Rs6,500/sqft. India Bulls Green Phase Greens
price has corrected by 12% for Phase 1 to base price of
Rs5,555/sqft. There was exhibition offer with free club
membership, no floor rise, no preferred location
charge etc. Mumbai new launches were Oberoi
projects (~3mnsqft) at base price of Rs12,250/sqft
whilst in Thane 3-4 townships of more than 100 acres
are in various launch phases.
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters
MCHI EXHIBITION


After such price increase, some developers offered
free-bies : Few developers (4-5 only) offered schemes
viz (i) 10:80:10 (ii) free registration & stamp duty (iii)
free Honda city & Activa (iv) free Iphone & (v) waiver of
club, floor rise, preferred location & golf club
membership charges. Couple of developers offered 05% base price discount ranging in Rs100-200/sqft for
spot booking. Overall, 6-10% was the price discount
being offered by 4-5 developers only. Whilst in case of
Mumbai developers the offers were largely limited to
20:80, 10:80:10 schemes only.
Mortgage rates seeing correction after RBI push for
transmission, 25bps of cut passed on to mortgage
subscribers : Most of the banks were offering
mortgage rates in the 9.85-9.9% range depending on
the loan amount. Lowest interest rate was offered by
SBI & HDFC at flat ~9.9% whilst LIC Housing & Kotak
Bank was offering 10-1-10.15%. Other charges
remained same for bankers which include Rs10,000+ST
as processing fee, 0.2% franking charges and Rs1500 as
other charges. Our channel check with mortgages
financiers suggest subdued market sentiments in
Mumbai & Suburbs with further slowdown expected
during the upcoming Monsoon session.
EXHIBIT 1 : FLOATING MORTGAGE RATES – 20YRS %
Bank
Axis Bank
HDFC
ICICI Bank
Kotak Bank
LIC Housing
SBI
Apr'15
Oct’14
9.95
10.25
9.9
10.15
9.9
10.15
10.15
10.15
10.1
10.1
9.85*-9.9#
10.1-10.15
Our view

We don’t expect any sharp correction in the property
prices in the Navi Mumbai owing to scarce land
availability and limited stock. Whilst the high property
prices have left limited price differential (10-15%)
between Vashi & Kharghar. Ulwe, Dronagiri & Panvel
remain the lowest price point markets and will see
future price appreciation depending on progress on
infrastructure projects. Navi Mumbai prices are now
equivalent to their Western Suburbs counterparts and
hence the projects in Goregaon, Mulund, Kandivali
region would see renewed traction for being better
developed alongside strong social infrastructure.

The way prices have moved the neighboring markets of
Pune would witness renewed Mumbai investor’s
activity. Kolte Patil developers will be key beneficiary
of likely shift in investors demand from Mumbai to
Pune. With regards to Mumbai markets, prices will see
a longer cycle time correction & muted (0-10%) near
term absolute price correction. We remain bullish on
prospects of Oberoi Realty, being the beneficiary of
consumer shift from high price point Navi Mumbai
market to Oberoi Mulund & Oberoi Goregaon projects
and also having the highest quality inventory in lowly
rated current supply (largely with low quality highly
leveraged private developers).
Source: Company, * for female borrowers, # for male borrowers
Page | 2
MCHI EXHIBITION
EXHIBIT 2: MUMBAI DEVELOPERS AVERAGE PRICE INCREASE OF ~3%
S.NO.
Developer
Project Name
Location
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Ackruti City (Hubtown)
Acme Group
Acme Group
Acme Group
Acme Group
Acme Group
Ahuja Group
Ahuja Group
Ajmera Realty
Ajmera Realty
Ajmera Realty
Ajmera Realty
Ajmera Realty
Ajmera Realty
Dosti Group
Dosti Group
Dosti Group
Ghatkopar (E)
Kandivali (E)
Goregaon (E)
Kandivali (W)
Andheri (E)
Thane (W)
Goregaon (W)
Ambernath (E)
Wadala (E)
Wadala (E)
Wadala (E)
Borivili (W)
Borivali (W)
Kalyan (W)
Thane (W)
Wadala (E)
Thane (W)
18
Dosti Group
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
Dosti Group
Ekta Group
Ekta Group
Ekta Group
HDIL
HDIL
HDIL
Kalpataru Developers
Kalpataru Developers
Kalpataru Developers
Kalpataru Developers
Kalpataru Developers
Kalpataru Developers
Kanakia Developers
Kanakia Developers
Kanakia Developers
Rising City
Acme Oasis
Acme Hills
Acme Avenue
Acme Boulevard
Acme Ozone
L'Amor
Prasadam
Ajmera Aeon
Ajmera Zeon
Ajmera Treon
Ajmera Pristine
Ajmera Regalia
Yogi Dham
Dosti Vihar
Dosti Ambrosia
Dosti Imperia
Dosti Planet North
(Centerio)
Dosti Landmark
Parksville
Tripolis
Bhoomi Garden III
Majestic Towers
Premier Exotica
Whispering Towers
Kalpataru Avana
Kalpataru Sparkle
Kalpataru Solitaire
Kalpataru Crest
Sunrise Grande
Kalpataru Riverside
Kanakia Sevens
Kanakia Rainforest
Kanakia Levels
Apr 15
Oct 14
Saleable Rate Saleable Rate
(INR/sft)
(Rs/sf)
13,100
12,600
13,500
13,500
12,500
12,000
11,500
10,900
14,200
13,999
10,500
10,000
12,750
12,100
3,750
3,500
20,000
19,800
19,500
19,500
19,000
18,900
14,500
14,040
13,750
13,500
5,500
5,310
10,500
10,500
18,500
19,500
10,500
10,050
Price Change
(%)
Possession Apr 15
4.0
4.2
5.5
1.4
5.0
5.4
7.1
1.0
0.5
3.3
1.9
3.6
(5.1)
4.5
Jun-18
Dec-17
Dec-17
Dec-16
Oct-18
Dec-16
Dec-17
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-16
Jun-15
Dec-15
Dec-15
Jun-15
Jun-15
Dombivali (E)
4,950
5,600
(11.6)
Dec-15
Thane (W)
Virar (W)
Goregaon (W)
Borivali (E)
Nahur (W)
Kurla (W)
Mulund (W)
Parel
Bandra (E)
Juhu
Bhandup (W)
Thane (W)
Panvel
Andheri (E)
Andheri (E)
Malad (E)
7,500
4,585
15,545
13,545
10,250
12,500
12,500
30,870
43,000
45,000
12,645
8,826
7,920
13,900
14,250
12,750
New Launch
5,190
15,570
13,000
10,250
12,500
12,250
New Launch
New Launch
New Launch
11,750
7,500
7,500
13,500
13,500
12,400
NA
(11.7)
(0.2)
4.2
2.0
NA
NA
NA
7.6
17.7
5.6
3.0
5.6
2.8
Dec-18
Jun-15
Dec-17
Jun-15
Dec-16
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
May-16
Apr-17
Apr-17
Jun-18
Mar-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-17
Page | 3
MCHI EXHIBITION
S.NO.
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
Developer
Project Name
Location
Kanakia Developers
Lalani Group
Lalani Group
Marathon Group
Marathon Group
Marathon Group
Mayfair Housing
Nirmal Lifestyle
Nirmal Lifestyle
Nirmal Lifestyle
Nirmal Lifestyle
Nirmal Lifestyle
Nirmal Lifestyle
Nirmal Lifestyle
Rajesh Lifespaces
Rajesh Lifespaces
Rajesh Lifespaces
Rajesh Lifespaces
Rajesh Lifespaces
Rajesh Lifespaces
Rajesh Lifespaces
Rajesh Lifespaces
Rajesh Lifespaces
Romell Group
Romell Group
Romell Group
Romell Group
Runwal Group
Runwal Group
Runwal Group
Runwal Group
Runwal Group
Runwal Group
Runwal Group
Kanakia Arohi
Grandeur
Valentine
Marathon Nexzone
Marathon Nextown
Nexworld
Mayfair Hillcrest
Sports City
US Open Apartments
Nirmal Turquoise
Nirmal Olympia
Nirmal Panorama
Nirmal Omega
Lifestyle City
Raj Infinia
Raj Altezza
Raj Grandeur
Raj Trinity
Raj Spectrum
White City
Raj Tattva
Raj Torres
92 Bellevue
Romell Aether
Unmiya Grandeur
Romell Diva
Romeel Peyton
Runwal Anthurium
My City
Eirene
Runwal Greens
Runwal Forest
Runwal Bliss
Runwal Pearl
Borivali (E)
Goregaon (E)
Goregaon (E)
Panvel
Dombivali (E)
Dombivali (E)
Vikhroli (W)
Thane (W)
Mulund (W)
Mulund (W)
Mulund (W)
Mulund (W)
Mulund (W)
Kalyan (W)
Malad (W)
Mulund (W)
Powai (W)
Powai (W)
Sion (E)
Kandivali (E)
Thane (W)
Thane (W)
Borivali (W)
Goregaon (E)
Goregaon (E)
Malad (W)
Santacruz (E)
Mulund (W)
Dombivali (E)
Thane (W)
Mulund (W)
Kanjur Marg (W)
Kanjur Marg (E)
Thane (W)
Apr 15
Oct 14
Saleable Rate Saleable Rate
(INR/sft)
(Rs/sf)
12,900
12,500
13,000
12,500
14,500
14,000
6,091
5,591
4,991
4,991
4,291
4,191
15,500
15,500
12,345
12,006
12,137
11,304
12,500
12,006
12,568
11,007
10,965
10,800
12,250
12,204
5,750
5,598
14,150
14,000
12,330
11,700
25,000
23,000
19,000
18,000
15,000
14,809
12,330
12,200
9,630
9,500
9,160
9,500
18,000
18,000
14,500
13,900
14,500
14,000
14,000
13,500
18,000
New Launch
12,500
11,750
4,950
4,802
7,750
7,794
13,000
12,500
12,500
11,750
12,000
New Launch
9,299
8,500
Price Change
(%)
Possession Apr 15
3.2
4.0
3.6
8.9
2.4
2.8
7.4
4.1
14.2
1.5
0.4
2.7
1.1
5.4
8.7
5.6
1.3
1.1
1.4
(3.6)
4.3
3.6
3.7
NA
6.4
3
(1)
4.0
6.4
NA
9.4
Jun-17
Jun-15
RFP
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
RFP
Dec-17
Oct-18
Dec-17
Oct-18
Oct-18
Dec-17
Oct-17
Jun-17
Jul-16
Jun-15
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-17
Dec-17
Dec-17
Dec-17
Oct-16
Oct-16
Jun-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Jun-18
Dec-16
Jun-18
Dec-18
Dec-16
Source: MCHI Mumbai exhibition
Page | 4
MCHI EXHIBITION
EXHIBIT 3: NAVI MUMBAI PROJECTS AVERAGE PRICE INCREASE OF ~10%
S.No. Developer
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Arihant
Arihant
Arihant
Arihant
Arihant
Arihant
Arihant
Arihant
Bhairaav
Bhairaav
Bhairaav
Enkay Homes
13
Indiabulls Real Estate
14
Indiabulls Real Estate
15
Indiabulls Real Estate
16
Juhi Developers
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
Juhi Developers
Juhi Developers
Juhi Developers
Juhi Developers
Lakhani Developers
Lakhani Developers
Lakhani Developers
Lakhani Developers
Marathon Group
Marathon Group
Marathon Group
Neelsidhi
Neelsidhi
Neelsidhi
Neelsidhi
Neelsidhi
Neelsidhi
Project Name
Location
Amodini
Aarohi
Aloki
Anmol
Anshula
Arshiya
Amisha
Akansha
Signature
Palm View
Garden view
Enkay Garden
Indiabulls Greens Ph 1
Indiabulls Greens Ph 2
Golf City - Ph I
Bhumika
Residency
Juhi Lawns
Juhi Greens
Juhi Pride
Niharika Reisdency
Orchid Woods
La Riveria
Prestige
Skyways
Nexzone - Ph I
Nexzone - Ph II
Nextown
Amarante
Balaji Garden
Neelsidhi Morya
Atlantis
Neelsidhi Joya
Neelsidhi Gloria
Taloja
Kalyan Shil Road
Karjat
Badlapur
Taloja
Khalapur toll naka
Taloja
Palaspe
Belapur
Ghansholi
Ghansholi
Taloja
Apr 15
Oct 13
Price increase
Saleable Rate Saleable Rate
%
(Rs/sf)
(Rs/sf)
5500
5100
3555
3350
4250
3050
3400
5500
9500
8730
8550
3200
3,000
6.7
Possession –
Apr 15
May-15
Dec-16
May-18
Dec-16
May-18
May-17
May-17
May-19
Dec--15
Dec--18
Dec--18
Oct-15
Panvel
5555
6,299
(11.8)
Dec-15
Panvel
5555
5,199
6.8
Dec-18
Savroli
5555
5,499
1.0
Dec-16
Kalamboli
6100
5,500
10.9
Ready
Nerul
Nerul
CBD Belapur
Kharghar
Khopoli
Panvel
Ulwe
Ulwe
Panvel
Panvel
Dombivali (E)
Kalamboli
Dombivali (E)
Titwala
Nerul
Ulwe
Ulwe
10100
11500
10500
7500
3500
7100
6700
6700
6091
6091
4991
5500
5500
3150
12500
6000
5500
9,500
10,500
9,000
7,000
3,200
6,500
4,951
5,151
4,191
4,900
6,000
2,900
11,000
5,000
4,750
6.3
9.5
16.7
7.1
9.4
9.2
23.0
18.2
19.1
12.2
(8.3)
8.6
13.6
20.0
15.8
Mar-15
May-17
Ready
May-17
Dec-16
Mar-17
Mar-17
Dec-15
Dec-16
Ready
Page | 5
MCHI EXHIBITION
S.No. Developer
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
Paradise Group
Paradise Group
Paradise Group
Paradise Group
Paradise Group
Paradise Group
Paradise Group
Paradise Group
Paradise Group
Paradise Group
Paradise Group
Paradise Group
Paradise Group
Paradise Group
Paradise Group
Paradise Group
Paradise Group
Paradise Group
Patkon Lifespaces
Patkon Lifespaces
Patkon Lifespaces
Patkon Lifespaces
Patkon Lifespaces
Patkon Lifespaces
Prajapati
Satyam Developers
Satyam Developers
Satyam Developers
Satyam Developers
Satyam Developers
Satyam Developers
Satyam Developers
Satyam Developers
Satyam Developers
Shikara Constructions
69
Shikara Constructions
Project Name
Location
Sai Jewel
Sai Moksh
Sai Mannat
Sai Crystals
Sai Solitaire
Sai Miracle
Sai Spring
Sai Symphony
Sai Wonder
Sai Sapphire
Sai Harmony
Sai Fortune
Sai Sahil
Sai Ganga
Sai Riverdale
Sai Gems
Sai Divine
Sai World City
Vishwamukha
Apramit
Avaneesh
Sumukha
Avighna
Haridra
Magnum
Empress
Mayfair
Majestic
Aura
Harmony
Pride
Imperial Heights
Exotica
Paradise
Shikara Estates
Shikara Palace
Gardens
Kharghar
Kharghar
Kharghar
Kharghar
Kharghar
Kharghar
Kharghar
Kharghar
Kharghar
Ulwe
Ulwe
Ulwe
Ulwe
Ulwe
Taloja
Dronagiri
Lonavala
Panvel
Nerul
Nerul
Roadpali
Kharghar
Ulwe
Kharghar
Dronagiri
Kharghar
Kharghar
Ulwe
Ulwe
Panvel-Matheran Rd
Kalamboli
Kalamboli
Ulwe
Ulwe
Panvel
Panvel
Apr 15
Oct 13
Price increase
Saleable Rate Saleable Rate
%
(Rs/sf)
(Rs/sf)
8500
7,200
18.1
9100
7,500
21.3
9700
8,400
15.5
8500
7,200
18.1
8500
7,200
18.1
8500
7,200
18.1
8500
7,200
18.1
8500
7,200
18.1
8500
7,200
18.1
5850
5,650
3.5
5850
5,650
3.5
5850
5,650
3.5
6200
5,800
6.9
5850
5,650
3.5
5850
5,100
14.7
NA
4,250
7000
7,000
0.0
6500
5,500
18.2
10500
11000
5800
6550
5700
6850
4850
8500
6500
6000
6000
4350
5850
5850
6000
5700
4800
4,500
6.7
3999
3,750
6.6
Possession –
Apr 15
Ready
Ready
May-17
Oct-15
Dec-15
May-16
May-19
May-19
May-19
Dec-16
Dec-16
Jul-15
Jul-15
Ready
Ready
Dec-16
May-16
Ready
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Ready
Dec-17
Page | 6
MCHI EXHIBITION
S.No. Developer
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
Shikara Constructions
Tejas Group
Vishwa Green
Vishwa Green
Vishwa Green
Vishwa Green
Vishwa Green
Xrbia
Xrbia
Xrbia
Xrbia
Xrbia
Project Name
Location
Platinum
Parishma
Vishwa Siyona
Vishwa Hans
Vishwa Abha
Vishwa Nidhi
Vishwa Spandan
Atria
Aman Villas
Eiffel City II
Edge Water
Abode
Panvel
Ulwe
Ulwe
Kharghar
Dronagiri
Dronagiri
Kharghar
Madap
Madap
Chakan
Neral
Talegaon
Apr 15
Oct 13
Price increase
Saleable Rate Saleable Rate
%
(Rs/sf)
(Rs/sf)
4999
5200
4,500
15.6
8000
6,000
33.3
8100
8,100
0.0
4300
4,200
2.4
4300
4,300
0.0
8500
8,000
6.3
4223
5000
3487
2990
3284
-
Possession Apr15
May-19
Dec-17
Mar-16
Apr-18
Nov-17
Apr-18
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Source: MCHI Navi Mumbai Exhibition
Page | 7
MCHI EXHIBITION
Disclosure:
I, Parikshit Kandpal, MBA, author and the name subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject
issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its
Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research
Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock – No
Disclaimer:
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