Robinson Department Store

ALERT
Thailand
Robinson Department Store
(ROBINS.BK/ROBINS TB)*
1Q15 earnings review: Beat our forecast by 10.8%
Outperform‧Maintained
Price as of 15 May 2015
45.75
12M target price (Bt/shr)
66.00
Unchanged / Revised up (down) (%) Unchanged
Upside/downside (%)
44.30
Key messages
ROBINS reported a 1Q15 net profit of Bt615mn,
up 14.1% YoY and 3.3% QoQ. The result beat
our forecast by 10.8% and the Bloomberg
consensus by 5.7%. Though weak sentiment in
department store business should continue, an
anticipated pickup in demand in 2H15 should
allow 2015 SSSG to rebound 3.5% from a drop of
5.8% in 2014. In addition, ongoing expansion
would help 2015 sales grow 9.2% YoY to
Bt26.0bn. Meanwhile, a high occupancy rate of
over 90.0% in rental area at its Lifestyle format
should allow rental fees to increase 9.4% YoY
and boost 2015 net profit 23.9% YoY to Bt2.3bn.
We maintain a rating of Outperform on the
counter with a target price of Bt66.00.
Event
ROBINS reported a 1Q15 net profit of Bt615mn, up 14.1% YoY and 3.3% QoQ. The result
beat our forecast by 10.8% and the Bloomberg consensus by 5.7%.
lmpact
Though a decline in tourists in some locations such as Phuket and sluggish economy caused
same store sales growth (SSSG) to drop to -6.6%, low impact from cannibalization and fullyear operations of new stores helped keep 1Q15 sales flat at Bt6.0bn, from Bt5.9bn in
1Q14. In addition, substantial rental fee growth of 41.0% YoY, thanks to a high occupancy
rate, helped offset a drop in gross profit margin (GPM) to 24.7%, from 25.1% in 1Q14, and
allowed 1Q15 earnings to increase to Bt615mn.
Going forward, weak sentiment in department store business should continue but an
anticipated pickup in demand in 2H15 should allow 2015 SSSG to rebound to 3.5% from a
drop of 5.8% in 2014. In addition, ongoing expansion would help 2015 sales grow 9.2%
YoY to Bt26.0bn. Meanwhile, a high occupancy rate of over 90.0% in rental area at its
Lifestyle format should allow rental fees to increase 9.4% YoY and boost 2015 net profit
23.9% YoY to Bt2.3bn.
Valuation & action
With the better than expected 1Q15 earnings and a strong earnings outlook in 2015, we
maintain a rating of Outperform on the counter with a target price of Bt66.00.
Risks
A slower than expected economic recovery.
Nat Panassutrakorn
66.2658.8888 Ext. 8849
[email protected]
1Q15 earnings beat our forecast by10.8%
Bt mn
Revenue
Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses
Other incomes
Operating Profit
Operating EBITDA
Interest Expense
Net Investment Income/(Loss)
Pre-tax Profit
Current taxation
Minorities
Net Profit
EPS (Bt)
Percent
Gross margin
SG&A/sales
1Q15
6,036
(4,545)
1,491
(1,629)
849
711
1,995
18
118
811
(142)
(54)
615
0.55
1Q15
24.7
27.0
1Q14
5,941
(4,447)
1,494
(1,449)
602
647
1,794
1
92
739
(130)
(70)
539
0.49
1Q14
25.1
24.4
YoY (%)
1.6
2.2
(0.2)
12.4
41.0
9.8
11.2
1,471.7
27.7
9.8
9.3
(22.2)
14.1
14.1
YoY (ppts)
(0.4)
2.6
4Q14
QoQ (%)
6,680
(9.6)
(5,031)
(9.7)
1,649
(9.5)
(1,805)
(9.8)
872
(2.7)
716
(0.6)
2,224
(10.3)
16
8.0
96
23.3
795
2.1
(140)
1.7
(60)
(9.3)
595
3.3
0.54
3.3
4Q14 QoQ (ppts)
24.7
0.0
27.0
(0.0)
Comments
Showed flat growth due to weak sentiment
Rental space increases as stores expand
Pick ups in the performances at Super Sport and Power Buy
Beat our forecast and Bloomberg Consensus by 10.8% and 5.7%
Dropped due to high marketing campaigns
Increased from pre-opening store expense
Source: KGI Research
May 18, 2015
*The Company may be issuer of Derivative Warrants on these securities.
http://research.kgi.com; Bloomberg: KGIT <GO>
Please see back page for disclaimer
1
Thailand
Robinson Department Store
Quarterly Income Statement
Ju n -12A
Sep -12A
D ec-12A
M ar-13A
Ju n -13A
Sep -13A
D ec-13A
M ar-14A
Ju n -14A
Sep -14A
Dec-14A
M ar-15A
5,004
(3 ,7 6 2 )
1,242
(1,130)
424
535
891
1,426
102
637
(1 1 3 )
(4 9 )
474
0 .4
5,204
(3 ,9 7 7 )
1,227
(1,193)
439
473
803
1,277
60
534
(1 0 1 )
(5 3 )
380
0 .3
6,341
(4 ,7 5 8 )
1,583
(1,446)
624
761
1 ,1 8 3
1,943
115
875
(5 6 7 )
(6 8 )
240
0 .2
6,305
(4 ,8 1 2 )
1,493
(1,291)
474
676
1 ,0 5 2
1,729
80
756
(1 3 4 )
(7 0 )
552
0 .5
5,560
(4 ,1 7 4 )
1,386
(1,351)
492
526
820
1,346
40
40
75
561
(1 0 2 )
(5 1 )
407
0 .4
5,869
(4 ,4 7 4 )
1,395
(1,433)
516
478
880
1,358
(40)
(4 0 )
90
609
(9 3 )
(5 1 )
465
0 .4
6,567
(4 ,9 2 7 )
1,640
(1,611)
615
643
1 ,3 4 8
1,992
114
757
(1 2 6 )
(6 8 )
562
0 .5
5,941
(4 ,4 4 7 )
1,494
(1,449)
602
647
1 ,1 4 6
1,794
1
1
92
739
(1 3 0 )
(7 0 )
539
0 .5
5,500
(4 ,1 5 4 )
1,346
(1,492)
620
473
993
1,466
9
9
121
585
(9 9 )
(4 6 )
440
0 .4
5,774
(4 ,4 2 0 )
1,355
(1,581)
624
397
696
1,093
14
14
95
478
(7 9 )
(4 7 )
353
0 .3
6,680
(5 ,0 3 1 )
1,649
(1,805)
872
716
1 ,5 0 8
2,224
16
16
96
795
(1 4 0 )
(6 0 )
595
0 .5
6,036
(4 ,5 4 5 )
1,491
(1,629)
849
711
1 ,2 8 3
1,995
18
18
118
811
(1 4 2 )
(5 4 )
615
0 .6
In co m e Statem en t (B t m n )
R ev en u e
C o st o f G o o d s So ld
Gro s s Pro f it
Op eratin g Ex p en s es
O ther inco m es
Op eratin g Pro f it
D ep reciatio n o f fix ed assets
Op eratin g EB IT DA
No n -Op eratin g In co m e
Interest Inco m e
O ther N o n-o p Inco m e
No n -Op eratin g Ex p en s es
Interest Ex p ense
O ther N o n-o p Ex p enses
N et Inv estm ent Inco m e/(Lo ss)
Pre-tax Pro f it
C urrent tax atio n
M ino rities
Ex trao rd inary item s
Net Pro f it
EPS (Bt)
M arg in s (% )
G ro ss p ro fit m arg in
O p erating m arg in
O p erating EBITD A m arg in
N et p ro fit m arg in
Gro w th (% )
Rev enue g ro w th
O p erating g ro w th
O p erating EBITD A g ro w th
N et p ro fit g ro w th
2 4 .8
1 0 .7
2 8 .5
9 .5
2 3 .6
9 .1
2 4 .5
7 .3
2 5 .0
1 2 .0
3 0 .6
3 .8
2 3 .7
1 0 .7
2 7 .4
8 .7
2 4 .9
9 .5
2 4 .2
7 .3
2 3 .8
8 .1
2 3 .1
7 .9
2 5 .0
9 .8
3 0 .3
8 .6
2 2 .3
1 5 .1
1 8 .7
2 3 .7
2 0 .3
3 .6
5 .7
3 .0
2 4 .1
3 6 .6
4 9 .0
(2 1 .0 )
2 4 .3
4 .0
4 .6
(2 .2 )
1 1 .1
(1 .7 )
(5 .6 )
(1 4 .2 )
1 2 .8
1 .0
6 .4
2 2 .5
3 .6
(1 5 .4 )
2 .5
1 3 3 .9
2 5 .1
1 0 .9
3 0 .2
9 .1
2 4 .5
8 .6
2 6 .6
8 .0
2 3 .5
6 .9
1 8 .9
6 .1
2 4 .7
1 0 .7
3 3 .3
8 .9
2 4 .7
1 1 .8
3 3 .0
1 0 .2
(5 .8 )
(4 .3 )
3 .8
(2 .3 )
(1 .1 )
(1 0 .1 )
8 .9
8 .2
(1 .6 )
(1 7 .0 )
(1 9 .5 )
(2 4 .2 )
1 .7
1 1 .3
1 1 .7
5 .9
1 .6
9 .8
1 1 .2
1 4 .1
Source: KGI Research
KGI Locations
China
Shanghai
Room 1907-1909， Tower A, No. 100 Zunyi Road,
Shanghai, PRC 200051
Shenzhen
Room 24D1, 24/F, A Unit, Zhen Ye Building, 2014 Bao’annan Road,
Shenzhen, PRC 518008
Taiwan
Taipei
700 Mingshui Road, Taipei, Taiwan
Telephone 886.2.2181.8888 ‧ Facsimile 886.2.8501.1691
Hong Kong
41/F Central Plaza, 18 Harbour Road, Wanchai, Hong Kong
Telephone 852.2878.6888 Facsimile 852.2878.6800
Thailand
Bangkok
8th - 11th floors, Asia Centre Building
173 South Sathorn Road, Bangkok 10120, Thailand
Telephone 66.2658.8888 Facsimile 66.2658.8014
KGI's Ratings
Rating
Definition
Outperform (OP)
The stock's excess return* over the next twelve months is ranked in the top 40% of KGI's coverage
universe in the related market (e.g. Taiwan).
Neutral (N)
The stock's excess return* over the next twelve months is ranked in the range between the top 40%
and the bottom 40% of KGI's coverage universe in the related market (e.g. Taiwan).1.3
Under perform (U)
The stock's excess return* over the next twelve months is ranked in the bottom 40% of KGI's
coverage universe in the related market (e.g. Taiwan).
Not Rated (NR)
The stock is not rated by KGI Securities.
Restricted (R)
KGI policy and/or applicable law regulations preclude certain types of communications, including an
investment recommendation, during the course of KGI's engagement in an investment banking
transaction and in certain other circumstances.
Excess return = 12M target price/current priceNote
Disclaimer
May 18, 2015
When an analyst publishes a new report on a covered stock, we rank the stock's excess return with
those of other stocks in KGI's coverage universe in the related market. We will assign a rating based
on its ranking. If an analyst does not publish a new report on a covered stock, its rating will not be
changed automatically.
KGI Securities (Thailand) Plc. ( “The Company” ) disclaims all warranties with regards to all information contained herein. In no event
shall the Company be liable for any direct, indirect or any damages whatsoever resulting from loss of income or profits, arising by
utilization and reliance on the information herein. All information hereunder does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any
securities but constitutes our sole judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
*The Company may be issuer of Derivative Warrants on these securities.
http://research.kgi.com; Bloomberg: KGIT <GO>
Please see back page for disclaimer
2