US Business Activity Monitor BTMU Business Barometer

US Business Activity Monitor
BTMU Business Barometer
23 APRIL 2015
MUFG UNION BANK, N.A.
ECONOMIC RESEARCH (NEW YORK)
HIROSHI KURIHARA
CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST
(212) 782-5701
[email protected]
Barometer up in week ending April 11, 2015
For the week ending April 11 2015, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rose by 0.2 percent
to 99.0, the highest level since the beginning of the year. This week’s barometer was mainly
fuelled by strong performances in consumption indexes. Chain store sales increased by 0.9
percent, extending the positive trend for three weeks in a row. Railroad freight car loadings as
well rose by 1.1 percent after declining by 1.8 percent last week. As to the production side, all
indexes except steel and truck production reported losses. For example, lumber and coal
production dropped by 1.7 and 1.6 percent, respectively.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer showed a gain of 0.7 percent, which compares to
an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (ended in June 2009 according to
the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer
bounced back in 2010 to rise by 3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994
(+4.0 percent), but not so impressive when compared to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009. The rate
of increase for the 2013 slowed to 0.7 percent following 1.5 percent in 2012.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility,
increased again by 0.1 percent to 98.8. Its year-over-year growth rate was 0.6 percent.
The BTMU Business Barometer includes four components from the goods producing sectors steel, the Western lumber region, auto, and truck production1 - as well as electricity output, a
measure of utility production, and coal production, a proxy for the mining industry. The financial
sector is represented by the Mortgage Bankers Association's purchase index, while the
services sector is covered by inflation-adjusted chain-store sales and by box office receipts, as
well as by freight car loadings, which is also an early indicator of goods orders.
A separate BTMU index of production trends, which is drawn from the six production-related
components and is statistically indexed to the Federal Reserve's industrial production index,
declined slightly by 0.1 percent to 95.3. See the end of this report for the graph.
The BTMU U.S. Business Barometer is released every Thursday morning at 10:00am eastern
time on our website at http://researchreports.mufg-americas.com/reports/economic-research.
1
1
After August 2 2014, weekly auto and truck production are based on internal estimates using historical data.
US Business Activity Monitor-BTMU Business Barometer | 23 April 2015
U.S. Business Activity Monitor
BTMU BUSINESS BAROMETER
2005 = 100, Smoothed
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
The Barometer is a composite index of weekly
economic data series covering production,
consumption, and investment
99.0
98.8
98.6
98.4
98.2
98.0
11-Apr-15 04-Apr-15 28-Mar-15
Preliminary
Revised
Revised
Smoothed Barometer, 2005=100 *
98.8
98.7
98.6
% Change from Prior Week
0.1
0.1
0.2
Barometer, 2005=100
99.0
98.8
98.7
% Change from Prior Week
0.2
0.1
0.4
U.S. Production Index (Statistically Indexed to FRB Production Index)
Production Index, 2005=100
95.3
95.4
95.5
% Change from Prior Week
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
* Smoothed using a 9-point centered binomial filter.
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US Business Activity Monitor-BTMU Business Barometer | 23 April 2015
21-Mar-15
Revised
98.4
0.1
98.3
0.2
14-Mar-15
Revised
98.3
0.0
98.1
-0.3
95.6
0.3
95.3
-0.7
BTMU U.S. Business Barometer (2005=100)
Composite Index
BTMU Business Barometer
% Change (W/W)
% Change (Y/Y)
BTMU BB Smoothed Version
% Change (W/W)
% Change (Y/Y)
Composite Index
BTMU Business Barometer
% Change (W/W)
% Change (Y/Y)
BTMU BB Smoothed Version
% Change (W/W)
% Change (Y/Y)
Composite Index
BTMU Business Barometer
% Change (W/W)
% Change (Y/Y)
BTMU BB Smoothed Version
% Change (W/W)
% Change (Y/Y)
Composite Index
BTMU Business Barometer
% Change (W/W)
% Change (Y/Y)
BTMU BB Smoothed Version
% Change (W/W)
% Change (Y/Y)
3
11-Apr-15 04-Apr-15 28-Mar-15 21-Mar-15 14-Mar-15 07-Mar-15 28-Feb-15
99.0
98.8
98.7
98.3
98.1
98.4
98.4
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
-0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.7
0.5
0.7
0.9
0.6
1.0
1.1
98.8
0.1
0.6
98.7
0.1
0.6
98.6
0.2
0.7
98.4
0.1
0.7
98.3
0.0
0.8
98.3
-0.1
0.9
98.4
0.0
1.1
21-Feb-15 14-Feb-15 07-Feb-15 31-Jan-15 24-Jan-15 17-Jan-15 10-Jan-15
98.5
98.3
98.3
98.3
98.2
98.5
98.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.3
-0.4
0.4
1.7
0.7
1.1
0.9
0.7
1.5
1.0
98.4
0.0
1.2
98.4
0.1
1.1
98.3
0.0
1.0
98.3
-0.1
1.0
98.4
-0.2
1.0
98.6
-0.2
1.0
98.8
-0.4
0.9
03-Jan-15 27-Dec-14 20-Dec-14 13-Dec-14 06-Dec-14 29-Nov-14 22-Nov-14
98.5
100.3
100.2
99.9
98.6
98.8
99.1
-1.8
0.1
0.3
1.3
-0.2
-0.3
0.5
0.1
1.8
1.3
0.9
1.2
1.1
0.9
99.2
-0.4
1.0
99.6
-0.1
1.1
99.7
0.2
1.1
99.5
0.3
1.1
99.2
0.3
1.1
98.9
0.1
1.0
98.8
0.2
1.0
15-Nov-14 08-Nov-14 01-Nov-14 25-Oct-14 18-Oct-14 11-Oct-14 04-Oct-14
98.6
98.2
98.0
98.1
98.1
98.3
98.3
0.4
0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.7
1.3
0.9
98.6
0.3
0.9
98.3
0.1
0.8
98.2
0.1
0.8
US Business Activity Monitor-BTMU Business Barometer | 23 April 2015
98.1
0.0
0.8
98.1
-0.1
0.8
98.2
0.0
0.9
98.2
-0.1
0.9
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
% Change (SMSAR)
% Change (SMSAR)
Industrial Production
10
-20
96
97 98 99 00
01
02 03 04 05
06
07 08
09 10 11 12 13
14 15
BTMU Production Index (Monthly Av erages, Lef t Scale)
FRB Industrial Production (Right Scale)
BTMU Weekly U.S. Business Barom eter Grow th
vs. Real GDP Grow th
8
6
5
4
0
2
-5
0
-2
-10
-4
-15
Annualized Percent Change
Annualized Percent Change, Smoothed
10
-6
-20
-8
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
Weekly Business Barometer Growth (Lef t Scale)
Real GDP growth (Right scale)
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US Business Activity Monitor-BTMU Business Barometer | 23 April 2015