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MRPC Regional Energy Model
8
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
9
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
10
%4*%!+$!%4&#!i*0+$&!30-'![+%4-/%j!-0!-/%$+(&!%4&!'-(&1!>-/)(*0#]!YURZ![&!/$&(!%4+$!i$,&)*0+-!
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
11
/).0&(+,%*>1&!)*%/0&!-3!%4&!3/%/0&!+)!*!,-'.1&_!$#$%&'!*)(!%4&#!>-%4!&),-/0*2&!$#$%&'+,!%4+)P+)2!
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
12
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
13
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
14
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Table 1. System Dynamics Symbols!
Name
Stock
Flow
Influence
Arrow
Description
A stock represents things in the model that can
accumulate. The stock will rise and drop
depending on its flows, and will remain constant
while in equilibrium.
A flow is the rate of change of a stock. Inflows
add to a stock, out flows take away from the
stock. Equilibrium occurs when inflows to all
stocks are equal to the outflows.
The blue arrows in the model represent when
one variable, a, directly influences the current
value of another, b.
!
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
15
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
16
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
17
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
18
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
19
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;/>1+,!"&09+,&$!b!0&,#,1+)2]![*%&0]!$&[&0$]!&%,N!
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
20
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
21
3&&(>*,P!30-'!%4&!*%%&)(&&$N!D4+$!'&&%+)2!*2*+)!*..1+&(![4*%!-%4&0!'-(&1&0$!4*9&!(-)&![+%4!
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D4&!0&2+-)*1!&)&02#!'-(&1!0&J/+0&(!%4&!*,,/'/1*%+-)!-3!(*%*!30-'!%4&!5=;B!0&2+-)N!L&,*/$&!
-3!%4&!1*02&!*'-/)%!-3!+)3-0'*%+-)!%4*%![*$!>&+)2!,-11&,%&(!-9&0!%4&!1+3&!-3!%4&!.0-<&,%!*!(*%*>*$&!
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>&$%!$-3%[*0&!3-0'*%!3-0!,0&*%+)2!%4&!(*%*>*$&!>&,*/$&!-3!+%$![&11bP)-[)!3&*%/0&$!*)(!*,,&$$+>+1+%#N!
L&,*/$&!-3!%4&!*'-/)%!-3!(*%*]!%4&!(*%*>*$&![*$!,0&*%&(!%-!)-%!-)1#!-02*)+W&!%4&!(*%*!+)!*!$+'.1+$%+,!
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• E*)(!I$&Q!"&&!?+2/0&!>&1-[!
!
MRPC Regional Energy Model
22
Table 2 MRPC Total Land Use
!
73%&0!*11!%4&!(*%*!3-0!&*,4!%-[)![*$!,-11&,%&(!%4&!%-[)$![&0&!*((&(!%-2&%4&0!%-!2+9&!*!%-%*1!
.+,%/0&!-3!%4&!0&2+-)N!A%4&0!.*0%$!-3!%4&!(*%*>*$&!,-'.-$&!%4&!$/09&#\$!0&$/1%$]!&)&02#!(*%*]!
%0*)$.-0%*%+-)!(*%*!*)(!-%4&0!&_%0*!(*%*N!C)&02#!,-)$/'.%+-)!(*%*![*$!,-11&,%&(!3-0!%4&!0&2+-)![*$!
-02*)+W&(!>#!&)&02#!%#.&N!D0*)$.-0%*%+-)!(*%*![*$!2*%4&0&(!%-!$&&!%4&!)/'>&0!-3!9&4+,1&$!*)(!
&$%+'*%&!%4&!,-)$/'.%+-)!-3!2*$-1+)&N!?-0!%4&!&)&02#!/$&!-3!%4&!0&2+-)!$%*%&!*9&0*2&$![&0&!/$&(!3-0!
%4&!'-$%!.*0%]!>/%!*%!$-'&!.-+)%!)*%+-)*1!*9&0*2&$![&0&!-)1#!->%*+)*>1&N!D4&!3/&1!/$&!3-0!%4&!0&2+-)\$!
0&$+(&)%+*1!,-)$/'.%+-)![*$!->%*+)&(!%40-/24!%4&!,&)$/$]!>/%!3-0!>/$+)&$$&$!3/&1!/$&![*$!)-%!1-,*%&(!
3-0!%4&!5=;B!0&2+-)N!!
D4&!(*%*!$%-0&(!+)!%4&!(*%*>*$&![*$!0&%0+&9&(!30-'!%4&!3-11-[+)2!$-/0,&$Q!5=;B]!%4&!IN"N!
B&)$/$!L/0&*/]!IN"N!C)&02#!8)3-0'*%+-)!7('+)+$%0*%+-)]!5*$$*,4/$&%%$!K+9+$+-)!-3!C)&02#!=&$-/0,&$]!
MRPC Regional Energy Model
23
IN"N!K&.*0%'&)%!-3!C)&02#]!*)(!C_&,/%+9&!A33+,&!-3!C)&02#!*)(!C)9+0-)'&)%*1!733*+0$N!D4&!$-/0,&$!-3!
&*,4!%*>!+)!%4&!(*%*>*$&!*0&!1-,*%&(!+)!%4&!i"-/0,&$j!%*>!-3!%4&!(*%*>*$&!-0!*%!%4&!>-%%-'!-3!&*,4!
%*>N!
)L+(:,5+*(
9+8,2%&SL1'(&/5(;,3#1/2(6+'$,%(
D4&!K&'-20*.4+,!*)(!G-/$+)2!"&,%-0![*$!+)!1*02&!.*0%!>-00-[&(!30-'!*!'-(&1!-3!"%&01+)2!
5*$$*,4/$&%%$!>#!*!@;8!$%/(&)%]!l*%0+)*!G/11N!YUfZ!!D4+$!$&,%-0!3&*%/0&$!*!a!$%-,P!*2+)2!,4*+)!%4*%!
0&.0&$&)%$!%4&!%-%*1!.-./1*%+-)!>0-P&)!(-[)!>#!*2&!20-/.$!iTbUfj]!iRTbaaj]!iaSbcaj]!*)(!%4&!icSsj!
20-/.N!!D4&!$%-,P!*)(!31-[!$%0/,%/0&!-3!%4&!*2+)2!,4*+)!>&2+)$![+%4!%4&!+)31-[!-3!L+0%4$!%-!%4&!$%-,P!-3!
TbUfN!!711!%4&!>+0%4$!-3!%4&!0&2+-)!-9&0!%4&!$.*)!-3!-)&!#&*0!*,,/'/1*%&!+)!%4&!TbUf!$%-,PN!!D4+)P+)2!
>*,P!%-!%4&!>*%4%/>!*)*1-2#]!%4&!>+0%4$!*0&!%4&!3*/,&%!*)(!%4&!$%-,P!iTbUfj!+$!%4&!>*%4%/>N!!7$![&!
.0-20&$$!3/0%4&0!*1-)2!%4&!*2+)2!,4*+)]![&!)&_%!$&&!*)!-/%31-[!30-'!%4&!iTbUfj!$%-,P!,*11&(!
i5*%/0+)2jN!!D4+$!-/%31-[!+$!*)*1-2-/$!%-!%4&!(0*+)!-3!%4&!>*%4%/>N!!7$!,*)!>&!$&&)!+)!%4&!(+*20*']!
5*%/0+)2!+$!)-%!-)1#!%4&!A/%31-[!Y(0*+)Z!-3!%4&!iTbUfj!"%-,P!Y>*%4%/>Z]!>/%!+%!*1$-!>&,-'&$!%4&!+)31-[!
Y3*/,&%Z!%-!%4&!iRTbaaj!*2&!20-/.]![4+,4!+$!%4&!)&_%!"%-,P!+)!%4&!$&J/&),&N!!D4&!*2+)2!,4*+)!,-)%+)/&$!
[+%4!%4&!-/%31-[!i72+)2j!>&,-'+)2!%4&!+)31-[!%-!%4&!iaSbcaj!*2&!20-/.]!3-11-[&(!>#!%4&!-/%31-[!
i=&%+0+)2j!31-[+)2!+)%-!%4&!1*$%!*2&!20-/.!$%-,P!icSsj!%4*%!%4&)!4*$!%4&!-/%31-[!iC1(&0!K&*%4$jN!!!
@4+1&!%4&!>+0%4!0*%&!*)(!%4&!(&*%4!0*%&![+11!*33&,%!%4&!%-%*1!.-./1*%+-)]!%4&!'-$%!+'.-0%*)%!3*,%-0!%4*%!
(0+9&$!%-%*1!.-./1*%+-)!/.!-0!(-[)!0&1*%+9&!%-!%4+$!.0-<&,%!+$!%4&!i;&0,&+9&(!7%%0*,%+9&)&$$j!-3!%4&!
0&2+-)N!!D4*%!+$!%-!$*#!%4*%!+3!.&-.1&!.&0,&+9&]!-0!>&1+&9&!%4*%!*!0&2+-)!+$!.*0%+,/1*01#!*%%0*,%+9&n!%4&#!
[-/1(!%4&)!'+20*%&!%-!%4*%!0&2+-)N!!A)!%4&!-%4&0!4*)(!+3!.&-.1&!.&0,&+9&!*!0&2+-)!%-!>&!/)*%%0*,%+9&Q!
%4&#![-/1(!%4&)!'+20*%&!*[*#!30-'!%4*%!0&2+-)N!!i;&0,&+9&(!7%%0*,%+9&)&$$j!+$!(&%&0'+)&(!>#!%4&!
7%%0*,%+9&)&$$!"&,%-0]![4+,4![+11!>&!(+$,/$$&(!1*%&0!+)!%4+$!0&.-0%N!
MRPC Regional Energy Model
24
!
!"#$%&'KN':&;+#%.93",'=.%*'+>'*3&':&;+#%.93",'./0'?+$7"/#')&,*+%'
D4&!G-/$+)2!.*0%!-3!%4&!K&'-20*.4+,!*)(!G-/$+)2!"&,%-0!(&$,0+>&$!4-[!%4&!9*0+*>1&!
iG-/$+)2j!+'.*,%$!%4&!>&4*9+-0!-3!%4&!'-(&1N!!D4&!+)31-[!iG-/$&!B-)$%0/,%+-)j!*(($!%-!%4&!$%-,P!
iG-/$+)2j]![4+1&!%4&!-/%31-[!iG-/$+)2!K&'-1+%+-)j!(0*+)$!%4&!iG-/$+)2j!$%-,P]!*1>&+%!*%!*!9&0#!1-[!
0*%&N!!iG-/$&!,-)$%0/,%+-)j!+$!(&%&0'+)&(!>#!$&9&0*1!3*,%-0$!%4*%!,-'>+)&!%-!$4-[!%4*%!.&-.1&!'-9&!
+)%-!*!0&2+-)!+3!%4&0&!+$!*>/)(*)%!4-/$+)2]!*)(!.&-.1&!'-9&!*[*#![4&)!4-/$+)2!+$!$,*0,&N!!G-/$&!
B-)$%0/,%+-)!+),0&*$&$![4&)!%4&!iG-/$&4-1(!%-!G-/$&!=*%+-j!+$!4+24]![4+,4!'&*)$!%4&0&!*0&!'-0&!
.&-.1&!(&'*)(+)2!4-/$+)2!%4*)!+$!*9*+1*>1&!+)!%4&!0&2+-)N!!D4&!iD-%*1!;-./1*%+-)j!30-'!%4&!
K&'-20*.4+,!.*0%!-3!%4&!$&,%-0!3&&($!+)%-!%4&!iG-/$&4-1(!%-!G-/$&!=*%+-j]!1+)P+)2!%4&!%[-!.*0%$!
%-2&%4&0N!!L/%!%4&0&!+$!</$%!$-!'/,4!1*)(!*9*+1*>1&!%-!>/+1(!-)!*)(!*$!1*)(!>&,-'&$!'-0&!*)(!'-0&!
$,*0,&]!%4&!iG-/$&!B-)$%0/,%+-)j!0*%&![+11!(&,0&*$&N!!D4+$!+$!$&&)!+)!%4&!(+*20*'!*$!*!0&$/1%!-3!
=&$+(&)%+*1!E*)(!?0*,%+-)!A,,/.+&(!YE?AZ!3*,%-0&(![+%4!%4&!iG-/$+)2!E*)(!5/1%+.1+&0jN!!!
MRPC Regional Energy Model
25
!"#$%&'NO'?+$7"/#'=.%*'+>'*3&':&;+#%.93",'./0'?+$7"/#')&,*+%'
!
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+%!+$!4&1.3/1!%-!1--P!*%!*!,*/$*1!1--.!(+*20*'N!!!D4&!B*$/*1!E--.!K+*20*'!YBEKZ!+)!?+2/0&!S!+11/$%0*%&$!%4&!
'*<-0!3&&(>*,P!1--.!30-'!%4+$!$&,%-0!*)(!4-[!+%!+$!1+)P&(!%-!%4&!7%%0*,%+9&)&$$!$&,%-0N!!!
!
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iD-%*1!;-./1*%+-)j!+)31/&),&$!%4&!iG-/$&4-1(!%-!G-/$&!=*%+-j]![4+,4!+)31/&),&$!%4&!iG-/$+)2j]![4+,4!
+)31/&),&$!%4&!i;&0,&+9&(!7%%0*,%+9&)&$$j]![4+,4!%4&)!3&&($!>*,P!%-!+)31/&),&!%4&!iD-%*1!;-./1*%+-)jN!!
D4&!.1/$!$+2)!*%!%4&!*00-[!4&*($!$+2)+3#!%4*%]!+3!iD-%*1!;-./1*%+-)j!+),0&*$&$]!%4&)!%4&!iG-/$&4-1(!%-!
MRPC Regional Energy Model
26
G-/$&!=*%+-j!+),0&*$&$N!!7)(]!+3!iD-%*1!;-./1*%+-)j!(&,0&*$&$]!%4&)!iG-/$&4-1(!%-!G-/$&!=*%+-j!
(&,0&*$&$]!-0!+)!-%4&0![-0($!'-9&$!+)!%4&!$*'&!(+0&,%+-)N!!D4&0&!*0&!*1$-!'+)-0!3&&(>*,P!1--.$!+)!%4+$!
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K&'-20*.4+,!.*0%!-3!%4&!$&,%-0!%4&0&!+$!*!'+)-0!1--.!,-)%*+)+)2!L+0%4$!*)(!;-./1*%+-)]!*)(!+)!%4&!
G-/$+)2!.*0%!-3!%4&!$&,%-0!%4&0&!+$!%4&!'+)-0!3&&(>*,P!1--.!,-)%*+)+)2!%4&!31-[!iG-/$&!B-)$%0/,%+-)j!
*)(!%4&!iG-/$+)2j!$%-,PN!!D4&$&!'+)-0!1--.$!(0+9&!%4&!'-(&1!3-0!.-$+%+9&!20-[%4]!>/%!*$!#-/!,*)!$&&!
30-'!?+2/0&!c!%4&#!*0&!>*1*),&(!>#!)&2*%+9&!1--.$]!%4/$!1+'+%+)2!%4&!.-$+%+9&!20-[%4!%4*%!%4&$&!'+)-0!
1--.$!+'.*0%N!!A9&0*11!%4&!'+)-0!1--.$!(-!)-%!,-)%0+>/%&!+)!*)!+)%&0&$%+)2![*#!%-!%4&!-9&0*11!(#)*'+,$!
-3!%4&!'-(&1N!!?+2/0&!c!>&1-[!$4-[$!.-$+%+9&!*)(!)&2*%+9&!'+)-0!1--.$N!!;-$+%+9&!1--.$!(0+9&!%4&!
20-[%4!+)!%4&!'-(&1]![4+1&!)&2*%+9&!1--.$!1+'+%!%4&!20-[%4N!
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
27
-3!-/0!5=;B!'-(&1N!!@&!>&1+&9&!4&0!$%0/,%/0&![-/1(!>&!&J/*11#!$/+%&(!3-0!-/0!0&2+-)*1!'-(&1!*$!+%!
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8)(/$%0+*1!"%0/,%/0&$!+)!%4&!0&2+-)N!!D-!(-!%4+$![&!)&&(&(!%-!3+2/0&!-/%!%4&!%-%*1!*'-/)%!-3!1*)(!W-)&(!
3-0!0&$+(&)%+*1]!,-''&0,+*1]!*)(!+)(/$%0+*1N!!@&![&0&!*>1&!%-!2&%!%4*%!(*%*!30-'!V*$-)!"%*)%-)!-3!%4&!
5=;BN!!83![&!1--P!*%!%4&!,-''&0,+*1!1&2!-3!%4&!$&,%-0![&!,*)!$&&!%4*%!%4&!9*0+*>1&!E*)(!I$&(!
B-''&0,+*1!(+9+(&(!>#!%4&!9*0+*>1&!E*)(!r-)&(!B-''&0,+*1!2+9&!/$!%4&!B-''&0,+*1!E*)(!?0*,%+-)!
A,,/.+&(N!!D0*,+)2!>*,P!+)!%4+$!1&2!-3!%4&!$%0/,%/0&]!%4&!9*0+*>1&!iE*)(!I$&(!B-''&0,+*1j!+$!,*1,/1*%&(!
>#!'/1%+.1#+)2!%4&!9*0+*>1&$!iE*)(!;&0!B-''&0,+*1b>#bB-''&0,+*1!"%0/,%/0&$j]!*)(!%4&)!%4+$!.0-(/,%!
+$!,-'>+)&(![+%4!%4&!.0-(/,%$!30-'!%4&!-%4&0!1&2$!-3!%4&!$&,%-0!*)(!3+)*11#!(+9+(&(!>#!%4&!iD-%*1!E*)(!
79*+1*>1&j!%-!2+9&!/$!%4&!iD-%*1!E*)(!?0*,%+-)!A,,/.+&(jN!
iD-%*1!E*)(!?0*,%+-)!A,,/.+&(j!*33&,%$!%4&!*%%0*,%+9&)&$$!-3!%4&!0&2+-)N!!83!%4&!iE*)(!?0*,%+-)!
A,,/.+&(j!+$!1-[]!%4&)!%4&!5-)%*,4/$&%%!0&2+-)![+11!>&!.&0,&+9&(!%-!>&!'-0&!*%%0*,%+9&!%-!.&-.1&!*)(!
>/$+)&$$&$N!!7$!'-0&!1*)(!+$!/$&(!3-0!4-/$+)2]!,-''&0,+*1]!*)(!+)(/$%0+*1!)&[!,-)$%0/,%+-)]!1*)(!
>&,-'&$!+),0&*$+)21#!$,*0,&0]!*)(!%4&!iD-%*1!E*)(!?0*,%+-)!A,,/.+&(j!+),0&*$&$N!!!
8%\$!+'.-0%*)%!%-!)-%&!%4*%!%4&!5=;B!'-(&1!4*$!%[-!7%%0*,%+9&)&$$!$&,%-0$]!-)&!3-0!0&$+(&)%+*1!
,-)$%0/,%+-)!0&.0&$&)%&(!>#!%4&!9*0+*>1&!iG-/$+)2j]!*)(!*)!7%%0*,%+9&)&$$!"&,%-0!3-0!L/$+)&$$&$N!!
B-)$&J/&)%1#!%4&0&!*0&!%[-!3&&(>*,P!1--.$!+)!%4+$!$&,%-0Q!!-)&!3&&(>*,P!1--.!3-0!4-/$+)2!*)(!-)&!
3&&(>*,P!1--.!3-0!>/$+)&$$&$N!!D4&$&!%[-!1--.$!*0&!+)(&.&)(&)%!30-'!-)&!*)-%4&0!*)(!>-%4!*0&!
>*1*),+)2]!-0!)&2*%+9&!1--.$!*$!&9+(&),&(!>#!*%%0*,%+9&)&$$!2-+)2!(-[)!*$!iD-%*1!E*)(!?0*,%+-)!
A,,/.+&(j!2-&$!/.N!E*)(!W-)+)2!3-0!'-$%!'-(&1!$+'/1*%+-)!0/)$!0&'*+)$!/),4*)2&(]!4-[&9&0]!1*)(!
W-)+)2!+$!*!%-.+,!-3!+)%&0&$%!%-!%4&!5=;B!*)(![&![+11!+),1/(&!*!,-/.1&!$+'/1*%+-)!0/)$!%4*%!(&*1![+%4!
W-)+)2!,4*)2&$N!
MRPC Regional Energy Model
28
!
!"#$%&'N<'8./0'J7&')&,*+%'
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,-''&0,+*1!*)(!+)(/$%0+*1!$%0/,%/0&$N!YUfZ!8)!4&0!"%&01+)2!D-[)!'-(&1]!l*%0+)*!G/11!1--P&(!*%!
>/(2&%+)2!(&,+$+-)$!3-0!%4&!%-[)N!!G-[&9&0!+)!-/0!'-(&1![&!1--P!*%!%4&!3/%/0&!&)&02#!(&'*)($!-3!*)!
&)%+0&!0&2+-)]!%4/$![&!4&*9+1#!'-(+3+&(!%4&!"%&01+)2!D-[)!'-(&1!>/$+)&$$!$&,%-0]!'*+)1#!%40-/24!
&1+'+)*%+)2!'*)#!-3!%4&!9*0+*>1&$!/$&(!%-!'-(&1!>/(2&%+)2!3-0!%4&!%-[)N!!A/0!0&2+-)*1!'-(&1]!3-0!
+)$%*),&!(-&$!)-%!+),1/(&!*)#!.0-9+$+-)$!3-0!3+0&!(&.*0%'&)%$]!.-1+,&!(&.*0%'&)%$]!-0!%*_&$N!!D4&!'*+)!
2-*1!-3!%4&!L/$+)&$$&$!"&,%-0!-3!%4&!5=;B!'-(&1!+$!%-!%0*,P!%4&!20-[%4!-0!(&,1+)&!-3!,-''&0,+*1!*)(!
+)(/$%0+*1!>/$+)&$$&$!+)!%4&!0&2+-)N!L/$+)&$$&$![+11!20-[!+)!%4&!0&2+-)]!+3!%4&!0&2+-)!+$!.&0,&+9&(!%-!>&!
*%%0*,%+9&!%-!>/$+)&$$N!!E+P&[+$&]!>/$+)&$$&$!,-/1(!$%*2)*%&]!-0!&9&)!(&,1+)&!+)!%4&!0&2+-)!+3!%4&!
MRPC Regional Energy Model
29
.&0,&.%+-)!-3!%4&!0&2+-)!+$!)&/%0*1!-0!/)*%%0*,%+9&N!
!
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!"#$%&'N@'L$7"/&77'M**%.,*"G&/&77'8++9'
MRPC Regional Energy Model
30
!
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9*0+-/$!3*,%-0$!*33&,%!%4&!-9&0*11!*%%0*,%+9&)&$$!-3!%4&!0&2+-)!%-!,/00&)%!*)(!.-%&)%+*1!0&$+(&)%$N!!
D4+)2$!1+P&!2--(!%-[)!$&09+,&$]!-.&)!$.*,&!*)(!*!0/0*1!3&&1]!*)(!<->$!'*P&!%4&!0&2+-)!*%%0*,%+9&]![4+1&!
%4&+0!*>$&),&$!'*P&!%4&!0&2+-)!/)*%%0*,%+9&N!!D4&$&!3*,%-0$![&0&!,4-$&)!>&,*/$&!-3!%4&!0&$/1%$!-3!%4&!
[-01(!,*3m!'&&%+)2!*)(!%4&!$/09&#N!!C*,4!-3!%4&$&!3*,%-0$!+$!$,*1&(!30-'!W&0-!%-!%[-]![+%4!W&0-!>&+)2!
&_%0&'&1#!/)*%%0*,%+9&!*)(!%[-!>&+)2!&_%0&'&1#!*%%0*,%+9&N!!C*,4!&33&,%!+$!*1$-!*$$+2)&(!*!$%0&)2%4!
MRPC Regional Energy Model
31
9*0+*>1&N!!D4&$&!9*1/&$!*0&!-)1#!+'.-0%*)%!0&1*%+9&!%-!-)&!*)-%4&0]!*)(!*0&!/$&(!%-![&+24%!%4&$&!
&33&,%$!>*$&(!-)![4*%!.&-.1&!,-)$+(&0!'-0&!+'.-0%*)%N!!?-0!%4&!>*$&!0/)]![&!$&%!*11!$%0&)2%4$!&J/*1!
*%!TNSN!!D4&!&33&,%$!*)(!%4&+0!$%0&)2%4$!*0&!*9&0*2&(!%-2&%4&0!+)%-!-9&0*11!0&2+-)!*%%0*,%+9&)&$$!/$+)2!
%4&+0!2&-'&%0+,!'&*)N!!D4+$!P&&.$!%4&!*%%0*,%+9&)&$$!>&%[&&)!-)&!*)(!%[-]!*)(![+11!)-%!2-!%-!W&0-!
/)1&$$!*11!%40&&!3*,%-0$!2-!%-!W&0-N!!D4&!-)&!*((+%+-)*1!.+&,&!-3!%4+$!'-(&1!+$!%4&!.&0,&.%+-)!$%0/,%/0&N!!
8%!(-&$!)-%!'*%%&0!%-!.&-.1&!4-[!*%%0*,%+9&!%4&!0&2+-)!+$N!!@4*%!*33&,%$![4&%4&0!-0!)-%!%4&#!'-9&!
+)%-!-0!-/%!-3!%4&!0&2+-)!+$!4-[!*%%0*,%+9&!%4&#!.&0,&+9&!+%!*$N!!;&-.1&!(-!)-%!,4*)2&!%4&+0!'+)($!*>-/%!
*!0&2+-)!+)$%*)%1#n!+%!%*P&$!$-'&!%+'&!3-0!%4+$!,4*)2&!%-!-,,/0N!!D-!0&.0&$&)%!%4+$]!%4&0&!+$!*!$%-,P!3-0!
.&0,&+9&(!*%%0*,%+9&)&$$]![+%4!*!31-[!%-!0&.0&$&)%!%4&!,4*)2&!+)!.&0,&.%+-)N!!D4&!.&0,&.%+-)![+11!
,4*)2&![4&)!+%!(-&$!)-%!0&.0&$&)%!%4&!*,%/*1!*%%0*,%+9&)&$$!%-!'*%,4!+%!'-0&!,1-$&1#N!!D4&!'-(&1!
*$$/'&$!+%!%*P&$!.&-.1&!*>-/%!*!#&*0!%-!$&&!%4&!,4*)2&$!+)!*%%0*,%+9&)&$$N!
!
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
32
7%%0*,%+9&)&$$!"&,%-0!&_,&.%!3-0!%4&!3*,%-0$N!!D4&0&!*0&!3+9&!3*,%-0$!*33&,%+)2!>/$+)&$$!*%%0*,%+9&)&$$Q!
*9*+1*>+1+%#!-3!$P+11&(!1*>-0]!%*_!0*%&$]!%0*)$.-0%*%+-)]!.0-_+'+%#!%-!'*<-0!4+24[*#$!*)(!$&*.-0%$]!*)(!
0&2+-)*1!0&2/1*%-0#!&)9+0-)'&)%N!!D4&$&!3*,%-0$!*)(!%4&+0!$%0&)2%4$![&0&!,4-$&)!>*$&(!-)!%4&!0&$/1%$!
-3!%4&!$/09&#]!*)(!30-'!*!.*.&0![0+%%&)!>#!?*40+!l*0*P*#*!*)(!B&'!B*)&1!%+%1&(!iI)(&01#+)2!
K+'&)$+-)$!-3!L/$+)&$$!E-,*%+-)!K&,+$+-)$Nj!!D4+$!.*.&0!(&$,0+>&(!%4&!0&$/1%$!-3!*!$/09&#!-3!
>/$+)&$$&$!+)!%4&!H&[!C)21*)(!*0&*!*$P+)2!*>-/%![4*%!3*,%-0&(!+)%-!(&,+$+-)$!-3![4&0&!%-!1-,*%&!
>/$+)&$$&$N!!D4&!.*.&0!*20&&(!+)!1*02&!.*0%![+%4!-/0!-[)!$/09&#]!$-![&!3&1%!,-)3+(&)%!+)!%4&!3*,%-0$![&!
/$&(!*)(!%4&!0&1*%+9&!$%0&)2%4$!-3!&*,4N!
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H*%/0*1!O*$!K&'*)(j]!iD-%*1!C1&,%0+,+%#!K&'*)(j!*)(!iD-%*1!G&*%+)2!A+1!K&'*)(jN!!D4&$&!a!*0&!%4&)!
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iB/'/1*%+9&!C)&02#!K&'*)(!.&0!B*.+%*jN!!!!!
MRPC Regional Energy Model
33
D40-/24!(*%*!,-11&,%+-)]![&!(&%&0'+)&(!%4&!)/'>&0!-3!&)&02#!,-)$/'&0$!+)!%4&!0&2+-)!*)(!%4&#!*0&!
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/$&!-3!&)&02#!.&0!#&*0N!!?-0!&_*'.1&]!1&%\$!1--P!*%!iG-/$+)2j]!3-0!&*,4!4-/$&!%4&0&!*0&!UNfR!9&4+,1&$!
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%0+,P#!>&,*/$&!-3!9*0+*>1&$!$/,4!*$!*2&!-3!9&4+,1&]!*)(!%4&!%#.&!-3!9&4+,1&N!YB*0!-0!1+24%!%0/,PZ!!@&!
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(*%*!3-0!%4&!*9&0*2&!/$&!.&0!#&*0!3-0!iG-/$+)2j]!iB-''&0,+*1!L/$+)&$$&$j]!*)(!i8)(/$%0+*1!
L/$+)&$$&$j]!*)(!%4&)!'/1%+.1#+)2!%4&!*9&0*2&!/$&!.&0!#&*0!>#!%4&!)/'>&0!-3!4-/$&$]!*)(!%4&!)/'>&0!
-3!,-''&0,+*1!*)(!+)(/$%0+*1!>/$+)&$$&$N!!7((+)2!/.!iG-/$+)2!C1&,%0+,+%#!K&'*)(j]!iB-''&0,+*1!
C1&,%0+,+%#!K&'*)(j]!*)(!i8)(/$%0+*1!C1&,%0+,+%#!K&'*)(j!2+9&$!/$!%4&!iD-%*1!C1&,%0+,+%#!K&'*)(jN!!D4&!
)*%/0*1!2*$!*)(!4&*%+)2!-+1!1&2$!-3!%4&!$&,%-0!*0&!%-%*1&(!%4&!$*'&![*#N!!!
?+)*11#]!*11!a!&)&02#!$-/0,&$!*0&!,-)9&0%&(!%-!LDI$!*)(!%4&)!*((&(!/.!%-!2&%!%4&!iD-%*1!=&2+-)*1!
C)&02#!K&'*)(j]![4+,4!%4&)!+$!,-)9&0%&(!%-!*!.&0!,*.+%*!0*%&!%4*%!*,,/'/1*%&$!+)!%4&!$%-,P!,*11&(!
iB/'/1*%+9&!C)&02#!K&'*)(!.&0!B*.+%*jN!!711!%4&!0&2+-)*1!&)&02#!(&'*)(&(!30-'!%4&!>&2+))+)2!-3!
%4&!'-(&1!YUfdTZ!*,,/'/1*%&$!+)!%4+$!$%-,PN!
(
MRPC Regional Energy Model
34
!
!"#$%&'NK'P/&%#Q')&,*+%'
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/)0&*$-)*>1&N!!7)!&_*'.1&!-3!%4+$!'*#!>&!+)!%4&!#&*0!RTRT]!*11!4-/$&$!+)!%4&!0&2+-)!$%*0%!2&%%+)2!
(&'-1+$4&(]![+%4!4-/$&!,-)$%0/,%+-)!$%-..+)2!*1%-2&%4&0!*%!%4&!$*'&!%+'&N!!I$+)2!,-''-)!$&)$&]!
[4*%!$4-/1(!4*..&)!4&0&h!!;&-.1&![+11!4*9&!)-!.1*,&!%-!1+9&]!$-!%4&#![+11!0/)!-/%!-3!%4&!0&2+-)N!!
=&2+-)!*%%0*,%+9&)&$$!$4-/1(!(0-.N!!L/$+)&$$&$!,*)!$%+11!3/),%+-)!3-0!*!1+%%1&!>+%!(/&!%-![-0P&0$!*)(!
,/$%-'&0$!,-''/%+)2!30-'!&1$&[4&0&]!>/%!$4-/1(!J/+,P1#!3-11-[!%4&!.&-.1&!-/%!-3!%4&!0&2+-)N!!C)&02#!
/$&!$4-/1(!(0-.!%-!W&0-!-),&!)-!-)&!+$!%4&0&!%-!/$&!*)#!'-0&!&)&02#N!!@4&)!%4&!$,&)*0+-![*$!0/)!+)!
%4&!'-(&1]!%4+$![*$!&_*,%1#![4*%!4*..&)&(N!!D4&!-)&!$/0.0+$&![*$!%4*%!>/$+)&$$&$!4/)2!*0-/)(!
MRPC Regional Energy Model
35
1-)2&0!%4*)!&_.&,%&(]!>/%!%4&#!(+(!J/+,P1#!*)(!$%&*(+1#!31&&!%4&!0&2+-)$]![+%4!*>-/%!U`!>/$+)&$$&$!1&3%!
>#!%4&!#&*0!RTdT]![4+,4!,*)!'*P&!$&)$&!>&,*/$&!*!3&[!>/$+)&$$&$!,-/1(!-.&0*%&!)&*0!%4&!&(2&!-3!%4&!
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$,&)*0+-$![+%4!&J/*11#!&_%0&'&!*)(!+'.-$$+>1&!,*$&$!$/,4!*$!3&0%+1+%#!+),0&*$+)2!%-!%4&!.-+)%![4&0&!%4&!
*9&0*2&!RTbaa!#&*0b-1(![-/1(!4*9&!3+9&!>*>+&$!.&0!#&*0]!%*P+)2!*11!<->$!-/%!-3!%4&!0&2+-)]!$4/%%+)2!
(-[)!>+0%4$]!*)(!)-%!1&%%+)2!*)#-)&!&)%&0!-0!1&*9&!%4&!0&2+-)N!!C*,4!-3!%4&$&!$,&)*0+-$![*$!%&$%&(!+)!
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&)$/0&!%4*%!%4+$!%+'&!$%&.![*$!)-%!,*/$+)2!*)#!&00-0$]![&!0&b0*)!$-'&!0/)$!/$+)2!%+'&!$%&.$!-3!TNRS!
#&*0$!Y`!'-)%4$Z!*)(!TNTUScRS!Y*>-/%!c!(*#$ZN!!D4&!0&$/1%$![&0&!%4&!$*'&!0&2*0(1&$$!-3!,4*)2&$!%-!
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,-'.*0&$!%4&!*9&0*2&!9*1/&$!-3!%4&!*,%/*1!*)(!$+'/1*%&(!(*%*N!!6*0+*),&!1--P$!*%!4-[!,1-$&1#!%4&!
%0&)($!+)!%4&!*,%/*1!*)(!$+'/1*%&(!(*%*!'*%,4N!!?+)*11#]!,-9*0+*),&!1--P$!*%!4-[!,1-$&!%4&!*,%/*1!*)(!
$+'/1*%&(!(*%*!-)!*!.-+)%b>#b.-+)%!>*$+$N!!D4&!9*1/&$!2+9&)!>#!%4&$&!%40&&!&00-0$!0&.0&$&)%!%4&!
.&0,&)%*2&!-3!%4&!%-%*1!&00-0]![4+,4![*$!,*/$&(!>#!&*,4!$-/0,&]![+%4!%4&!$/'!-3!%4&!>+*$]!9*0+*),&]!
*)(!,-9*0+*),&!>&+)2!UN!
MRPC Regional Energy Model
36
D4&0&![&0&!3-/0!9*0+*>1&$![&!4*(!&)-/24!4+$%-0+,!(*%*!-)!%-!,-'.*0&![+%4!$+'/1*%&(!(*%*!*)(!
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[*$!%4&!.0+'*0#!,*/$&!-3!&00-0!+$!%4&!.-./1*%+-)N!!D4+$![*$!$-'&[4*%!-3!*!,-),&0)!>&,*/$&!+%!'&*)$!
%4&!'*<-0+%#!-3!%4&!&00-0![*$!>&,*/$&!%4&!%0&)(!+$!-33]!>/%!$+),&!%4&!%-%*1!&00-0![*$!1&$$!%4*)!St]!%4+$!
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
37
B-9*0+*%+-)!
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[4&0&!,&0%*+)!3&&(>*,P!1--.$![&0&!0&'-9&(!30-'!%4&!'-(&1N!!D4&!3+0$%!1--.![&!%0+&(!0&'-9+)2![*$!
%4&!-)&!+)9-19+)2!<->$N!!8)$%&*(!-3!1&%%+)2!<->$!9*0#!(&.&)(+)2!-)!%4&!>/$+)&$$&$!+)!%4&!0&2+-)]![&!$&%!
+%!&J/*1!%-!UTT]TTT!3-0!%4&!&)%+0&!0/)N!!D4&!0&$/1%!-3!%4+$![*$!'/,4!J/+,P&0!+)+%+*1!20-[%4!+)!.-./1*%+-)!
%4*)!%4&!>*$&!0/)]!3-11-[&(!>#!*!(&,1+)&![4&)!%4&0&!*0&!'-0&!.&-.1&!%4*)!<->$]!*)(!)&[!<->$!*0&)\%!
>&+)2!,0&*%&(N!!D4&!0&$/1%$!-3!%4&!0/)![&0&!$+2)+3+,*)%1#!(+33&0&)%!%4*)!%4&!>*$&!0/)]!+)(+,*%+)2!%4*%!%4&!
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.&-.1&!*%%0*,%+)2!>/$+)&$$&$]!>#!$&%%+)2!%4&!$P+11&(!1*>-0!%-!*!,-)$%*)%!9*1/&!-3!aS]TTT!.&-.1&N!!D4&!
0&$/1%!-3!%4+$![*$!3*$%&0!+)+%+*1!>/$+)&$$!20-[%4]!3-11-[&(!>#!$1-[&0!20-[%4!%-[*0($!%4&!&)(!-3!%4&!
0/)N!!72*+)]!%4&!0&$/1%$![&0&!$+2)+3+,*)%1#!(+33&0&)%!30-'!%4&!>*$&!0/)]!$-![&!(&%&0'+)&(!%4*%!%4&!1--.!
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6+;91&X'[+%10!>#!V-4)!KN!"%&0'*)N!YRaZ!
Boundary Adequacy:
The following chart shows the variables of the model that are endogenous, exogenous, and
variables that are excluded.
Table 5. Model Boundary Chart
MRPC Regional Energy Model
38
Endogenous
Population of the region
• !"#$%&'
• ()"*)'
$%#+,)%'
-.,/$%++.'
• 01-$%&'
• 2")#-$"+*' $+34#+5' $%1'
#1)"+*'
Housing
Labor force – gainfully employed
Land already used
Commercial businesses
Industrial Businesses
Region business attractiveness
Region attractiveness to people
Total energy demand
• 6+$-/'
*-$,#-/'
)-&'
.15-*.'
• 6+$-/')-&+/"*1'-*.'."1&1/'
.15-*.'
• 6+$-/'
%1-$"*)'
+"/'
.15-*.'
• 6+$-/'1/17$#"7"$8'.15-*.'
Exogenous
Birth rate
Death rate
House construction rate
Demolition rate
Influence of relative regional
services
Influence of proximity to
major highways/seaports
Influence of relative
regulatory environment
Influence of relative tax rates
Excluded
Energy Supply
Prices/Costs
As John D. Sterman says in his textbook, “System dynamics seeks endogenous explanations for
phenomena”. (24) The variables that are endogenous in the model interact to generate dynamics within
the model’s boundary. On the flip side, variables that are outside the model’s boundary are exogenous
variables. Much of the behavior of exogenous variables in the model is assumed, and not explicitly
modeled.
The Minnesota Project discussed earlier in the report gave us confidence using exogenous
variables, many of which came about from running the simulations of the stakeholder scenarios. That
being said, there were a few areas in the model that we would have liked to expand upon, if time
available, but this was didn’t occur. Because people of different age groups are attracted to a region for
different reasons, we would have liked to add endogenous variables to the aging chain from the
MRPC Regional Energy Model
39
demographic sector to model that behavior. More recommendations will be mentioned later in this
report.
Family Member:
Our model was built to mimic the Montachusett region. The family member test asks, “Can the
model generate the behavior of other instances in the same class as the system the model was built to
mimic”. (24) Our answer to this question is “Yes”. Our model can be applied to other regions as well
as individual towns. During the process of the model build the team discussed from time to time this
“Family Member” quality of our model.
(
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%+'&!+)!%4&!>*$&!0/)!+$!%4&!4&*%+)2!-+1!/$&(!.&0!4-/$&!*)(!>/$+)&$$]![4+,4!4*$!>&&)!4+$%-0+,*11#!
(0-..+)2!(/&!%-!*(9*),&$!+)!%&,4)-1-2#!+)!%4*%!*0&*N!
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
40
G-[&9&0!9&0#!$--)!$-'&!.&-.1&!1&*9&]!$-'&!4-/$&$!2-!/.]!*)(!>#!UfdR!%4&!0&2+-)!+$!*%%0*,%+9&!+)!
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%4*)!%4&#!*0&!'-9+)2!-/%N!!D4&!'*+)!0&*$-)!3-0!%4+$!+$!(/&!%-!%4&!9&0#!1*02&!*'-/)%$!-3!-.&)!1*)(]!
[4+,4!.&-.1&!3+)(!%-!>&!*!9&0#!*%%0*,%+9&!3&*%/0&!-3!%4&!5-)%*,4/$&%%!0&2+-)N!!;&-.1&!'-9&!+)!
>&,*/$&!+%!+$!*%%0*,%+9&]!*)(![4+,4!4*$!'*)#!&33&,%$N!!D4&!(+0&,%!&33&,%$!*0&!%4*%!%4&!4+24&0!.-./1*%+-)!
+),0&*$&$!%4&!4-/$&4-1(!%-!4-/$&!0*%+-]!%4&!1*>-0!3-0,&]!*)(!%4&!&)&02#!/$&(N!!D4&$&!&33&,%$!+)!%/0)!
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41
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
42
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
43
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
44
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45
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
46
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
47
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
48
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
49
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
50
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
51
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
52
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
53
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
54
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
55
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
65
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
66
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MRPC Regional Energy Model
69
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93
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95
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96
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97
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98
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99
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100
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101
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105
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106
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108
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109
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110
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111