Oslo Børs - investeringsmuligheter

Oslo Børs - investeringsmuligheter
Kristian Tunaal
November 2014
Aksjer som investering
[email protected]
2
STRATEGY: VALUATION
OSEBX P/B and 12m forward P/E
OSEBX: P/B and forward P/E
2.76
20
18
2.26
16
14
1.76
12
10
Historical average
1.26
8
6
0.76
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
P/B
P/E
4
STRATEGY: VALUATION
S&P 500 P/B and 12m forward P/E
S&P 500: P/B and forward P/E
5.74
26
4.74
21
3.74
Historical average
2.74
16
1.74
11
0.74
1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
6
P/B
P/E
Euroland: Prising
5
Praktiske konjunkturindikatorer
Konjunkturindikatorer
14000
BDIY Index
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
6
Praktiske konjunkturindikatorer
CRY råvareindeks
500
Prisutvikling råvareindeks
450
400
350
300
250
200
CRY
Index
7
Oljepris i USD vs. NOK
120
Oljepris - utvikling i år (USD)
110
100
30/05/2014
90
29/08/2014
80
31/10/2014
70
60
CO1
Comdty
700
CO3
Comdty
CO12
Comdty
CO36
Comdty
CO60
Comdty
CO80
Comdty
Oljepris - utvikling i år (NOK)
650
600
30/05/2014
31/07/2014
550
31/10/2014
500
450
CO1
Comdty
CO3
Comdty
CO12
Comdty
CO36
Comdty
CO60
Comdty
CO80
Comdty
Optimisme i næringslivet
Business sentiment
ISM
65
60
55
ISM USA
HSBC PMI China
50
Markit PMI Euroland
45
40
35
01.10.2011
01.10.2012
01.10.2013
01.10.2014
9
Olje: Tilbud og etterspørsel
10
Long Term Oil Price Forecast – New
(The forecast is for the average of the rolling 1st month ICE Brent future contract)
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Historical
Real (2013) $/b
32.2
32.4
36.5
47.2
65.0
75.3
81.3
105.2
67.0
84.9
115.2
113.3
108.7
Forecast
Real (2014) $/b
108
110
104
85
102
80
84
85
85
86
86
Spot Brent History & FWD looking
160
140
120
100
$/b
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Historical
Nominal $/b
24.4
25.0
28.8
38.3
54.5
65.1
72.4
97.3
61.7
79.5
111.3
111.7
108.7
Forecast
Nominal $/b
108
110
104
85
102
80
85
88
90
93
95
80
60
40
20
0
1995
Source: Reuters, DNB Markets
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
Possible range
FWD (nominal)
Historical
Forecast real (2014 USD)
2016
2019
Forecast nominal
11
E&P vs. oljepris
12
Sjømat: Laksepriser
NOK/Kg
13
Relativ prising sjømataksjer
Prising sjømataksjer (EV/EBITDA 12 mnths)
12
12
11
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
sep 11 des 11 mar 12 jun 12 sep 12 des 12 mar 13 jun 13 sep 13 des 13 mar 14 jun 14 sep 14 des 14
Marine Harvest ASA
Austevoll Seafood ASA (Rebased)
SalMar ASA (Rebased)
14
Det Norske Oljeselskap (DETNOR)
• Oljeselskap med fokus på norsk sokkel
• Har eierandel i Johan Sverdrup, Johan Aasen m.fl.
• Har fusjonert med Marathon Norge
• => gir løpende kontantstrøm til å finansiere videre utbygginger
• => største uavhengige oljeselskap i Europa
• Vil endre posisjon fra leteselskap til etablert selskap
• => lettere å verdsette
• => Mindre risiko
• Dollarstigning kompenserer for oljeprisfallet
• Våre base case estimater er basert på USD 100 bbl/d og USDNOK 6.0. Dette gir
P/E 2015 est. på EPS 9.6 og NAV på 84 NOK/aksje
• Mark to market oljepris USD 84 bbl/d og USD/NOK 6.57 gir NAV på 77/aksje og
EPS 2015 est. på 8.2 EPS
• Fremdeles P/NAV 0.55 og P/E 2015 est. på 5.2
15
Marine Harvest
 Verdens største oppdrettselskap
 Størrelse gir
 markedspremie
 Geografisk diversifikasjon
 Oppdrettslaks er ikke dyrt!
 Andre matvarer har over tid steget like mye i pris
Key figures
VALUAT ION
EPS
EPS adj
Dividend ps
2012
2013 2014e
NOK
NOK
NOK
1.09
1.25
0.1
6.39
4.66
2.61
4.23
7.36
8.1
11.03
11.03
8.5
Book per share
Price
Price
P/ E
P/ E adj
Dividend yield
NOK
NOK
NOK
X
X
%
31.2
51.2
39.9
73.85
35.7
91.35
39.2
91.35
47
41
0.2
11.6
15.8
3.5
21.6
12.4
8.9
8.3
8.3
9.3
P/ Book
X
1.6
1.9
2.6
2.3
 Og oppdrettsaksjer er ikke dyre
 P/E 2015. est. på 8.3
 Og premien til industrien ikke større enn den pleier
å være
 Gode utbytter
 Begrenset tilbudsvekst i 2015/2015. Historisk
har dette alltid gitt økte priser
16
2015e
Opera Software
 Teknologi-selskap som leverer programvare
som gir kobler internett med
mobil/laptop/desktop
 Over 350 mn brukere og 130 mobiloperatører
benytter Opera programvare for internettilgang
 Viktigste inntektskilde er annonsører til mobiler
 H1 2014 vs. H1 2013;
 39% vekst i omsetning
 39% vekst i operativ kontantstrøm
Key figures
VALUAT ION
EPS
EPS adj
Dividend ps
2014e
2015e
USD
USD
USD
0.24
0.57
0.05
0.53
0.89
0.05
Price
Price
P/ E
P/ E adj
Dividend yield
NOK
USD
X
X
%
90
13.66
56.3
23.8
0.3
90
13.66
26
15.3
0.4
 Nyheter;
 Oppkjøp av AdColony juni 2014
 Styrker posisjonen på videoannonser
 Vekst;
 Mobil allerede større enn desktop og vokser raskest
 Video vokser raskest på mobil
 Tar markedsandeler
17
Morning Presentation
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19