Modelling environmental influences on calving at Helheim Glacier in

The Cryosphere
Open Access
The Cryosphere, 8, 827–841, 2014
www.the-cryosphere.net/8/827/2014/
doi:10.5194/tc-8-827-2014
© Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.
Modelling environmental influences on calving at Helheim Glacier
in eastern Greenland
S. Cook1,2 , I. C. Rutt1 , T. Murray1 , A. Luckman1 , T. Zwinger3 , N. Selmes1 , A. Goldsack1 , and T. D. James1
1 Glaciology
Group, Geography Department, Swansea University, Swansea, SA2 8PP, UK
of Arctic Geology, University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS), Pb. 156, 9171 Longyearbyen, Norway
3 CSC – IT Center for Science Ltd., P.O. Box 405, 02101 Espoo, Finland
2 Department
Correspondence to: S. Cook ([email protected])
Received: 13 August 2013 – Published in The Cryosphere Discuss.: 4 September 2013
Revised: 3 March 2014 – Accepted: 11 March 2014 – Published: 6 May 2014
Abstract. Calving is an important mass-loss process for
many glaciers worldwide, and has been assumed to respond to a variety of environmental influences. We present
a grounded, flowline tidewater glacier model using a
physically-based calving mechanism, applied to Helheim
Glacier, eastern Greenland. By qualitatively examining both
modelled size and frequency of calving events, and the subsequent dynamic response, the model is found to realistically
reproduce key aspects of observed calving behaviour. Experiments explore four environmental variables which have been
suggested to affect calving rates: water depth in crevasses,
basal water pressure, undercutting of the calving face by submarine melt and backstress from ice mélange. Of the four
variables, only crevasse water depth and basal water pressure were found to have a significant effect on terminus behaviour when applied at a realistic magnitude. These results
are in contrast to previous modelling studies, which have suggested that ocean temperatures could strongly influence the
calving front. The results raise the possibility that Greenland
outlet glaciers could respond to the recent trend of increased
surface melt observed in Greenland more strongly than previously thought, as surface ablation can strongly affect water
depth in crevasses and water pressure at the glacier bed.
1
Introduction
Calving is an important mass loss process for both ice sheets
and smaller tidewater glaciers (e.g., Church et al., 2001; Rignot and Thomas, 2002; Blaszczyk et al., 2009) and plays a
strong role in tidewater glacier dynamics (Meier and Post,
1987). In the past there has been debate about whether
changes in glacier dynamics and terminus retreat, observed at
a number of locations worldwide, were triggered by changes
in calving rate or changes in glacier velocity, a debate made
more complicated by the potential feedback between the two
mechanisms (van der Veen, 2002). Modelling work has since
shown that changes at the terminus are able to trigger retreat
(Nick et al., 2009) and it is now generally thought that calving rates are affected by a number of external environmental
variables. The four main hypothesized mechanisms for tidewater glacier retreat are as follows:
1. increased water in crevasses, which promotes calving
by increasing the depth of fractures around the calving
front (Benn et al., 2007a);
2. increased basal water pressure, leading to faster sliding, which can also enhance fracturing by increasing
longitudinal strain rates (van der Veen, 2002);
3. undercutting of the terminus by submarine melt, which
alters the stress field around the terminus and is hypothesized to enhance calving (Motyka et al., 2003;
O’Leary and Christofferson, 2013);
4. reduction in backstress from proglacial ice mélange,
which can otherwise provide a stabilising force to the
calving face and inhibit calving (Nick et al., 2009;
Amundson and Truffer, 2010).
These mechanisms depend on atmospheric and ocean temperatures driving either surface or submarine ice melt. This
means that the environmental signals involved are strongly
Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.
828
linked, as increased air and ocean temperatures are typically
strongly correlated (Deser and Blackmon, 1993). In addition,
the physical mechanisms relating ice dynamics to oceanic
and atmospheric warming are also interrelated. For example, modelling of the proglacial fjord by O’Leary (2011) and
Xu et al. (2012) shows that undercutting rates at the terminus are affected not only by the surrounding water temperature, but also by the rate of subglacial discharge, which is
directly linked to glacier surface ablation and hence air temperatures. The interaction between different forcing variables
and mechanisms makes it difficult to distinguish the precise
causes of tidewater glacier retreat by observation alone.
By including calving in an ice flow model it is possible to
experiment with applying these environmental forcing factors separately and deduce the likely sensitivity of tidewater glaciers to them. Such a study has previously been performed by Vieli and Nick (2011) using a physically-based
calving criterion based on the modelled depth of crevasses in
the ice. However, the vertically averaged model used in previous studies (e.g., Nick et al., 2010; Vieli and Nick, 2011)
is likely to lead to inaccuracies in modelled crevasse penetration, as earlier models have shown strong vertical variation in longitudinal stresses around the calving front (Hanson and Hooke, 2000; Hanson and Hooke., 2003). A previous
publication presented a two-dimensional, vertically-resolved
flowline model of Columbia Glacier, Alaska, using a similar
calving criterion (Cook et al., 2012). That study was limited
in scope due to the time-consuming, manual implementation
of calving. In this paper we present an extension of the previous model which now automates the calving process, making
model runs significantly faster and allowing a greater scope
of experiments. The model has also been extended to include
a parameterization of lateral processes and a non-linear sliding law, although it is still currently limited to representing
grounded ice.
The chosen study location is Helheim Glacier, in eastern
Greenland (Fig. 1a), which was selected due to its recent interesting behaviour. The mean annual terminus location of
Helheim Glacier was stable throughout the late 1980s and
early 1990s, although sub-annual variations of between 2 and
4 km are typical (Bevan et al., 2012). After a period of thinning in the 1990s (Abdalati et al., 2001), the front began
to retreat in 2001. Over the period 2001–2005 the front retreated by 6 km, the main trunk sped up by around 3.0 km a−1
and the surface lowered by 40 m (Howat et al., 2005; Luckman et al., 2006). By 2006, thinning had stopped near the
front and the glacier slowed, advancing approximately 4 km
from its most retreated position. Since 2007 the glacier has
once again shown a stable mean annual terminus position,
although somewhat further retreated than the pre-2004 position (Howat et al., 2007; Bevan et al., 2012). Although large
annual variation in terminus position is typical during some
periods at Helheim Glacier, the rapid and consistent retreat
of 2001–2005 was exceptional and a similar retreat was also
observed in other glaciers in the region, leading to the conThe Cryosphere, 8, 827–841, 2014
S. Cook et al.: Modelling calving at Helheim Glacier
Fig. 1. Model set-up. (a) Location of Helheim Glacier, with path of
chosen flowline and two indicative terminus positions. Numbers indicate distance along flowline in km. (b) Comparison of measured
and modelled surface velocity at end of spin-up. (c) Comparison of
observed surface profile with relaxed surface profile used to initialize model.
clusion that it was likely the result of a single environmental
event (Howat et al., 2008). The cause of this synchronous retreat has been widely debated, with high air and sea temperatures hypothesized as potential triggers (e.g., Joughin et al.,
2008b; Murray et al., 2010; Christofferson et al., 2012). The
bed elevation data available for Helheim Glacier are limited
to ice-covered areas, where airborne radar measurements can
be made; therefore, this retreat has also provided a modelling opportunity with data available to set up a model which
has sufficient bed data available to experiment with a full
range of terminus behaviour: retreating, steady and advancing. In this paper our time-evolving, flowline model of Helheim Glacier is tested for sensitivity to the four main environmental inputs outlined above.
2
Model setup
This study uses a vertical two-dimensional (2-D) ice flow
model to analyse the stresses along a flowline within the
glacier, which can then be used to determine whether and
www.the-cryosphere.net/8/827/2014/
S. Cook et al.: Modelling calving at Helheim Glacier
829
where calving occurs. The model is allowed to evolve
through time, with calving applied according to the crevassedepth calving criterion proposed by Benn et al. (2007b) and
used in previous modelling studies (Nick et al., 2010; Otero
et al., 2010; Cook et al., 2012). The criterion states that calving will occur where the surface crevasse field penetrates below sea level. The depth of surface crevasses is calculated
by the Nye formulation (Nye, 1955, 1957). Allowing for the
effect of water in crevasses this means that the base of the
crevasse field occurs where
σxx + Dw ρw g = 0 ,
(1)
where σxx is the longitudinal component of the
Cauchy stress, Dw the depth of water in the crevasse,
ρw = 1000 kg m−3 is the density of the water and
g = 9.81 m s−2 is gravitational acceleration.
The ice flow solution is calculated using the open source
Elmer/Ice finite element modelling software (Gagliardini
et al., 2013). Calving is applied using additional code which
examines the output from the Elmer/Ice software and updates
the geometry to allow for any calving events. If the model is
run with a sufficiently short time-step, multiple time-steps
will occur between each calving event, thus allowing individual calving events to be distinguished. In this case the
model also provides data on the modelled size and frequency
of calving events which can be compared to observed data.
The calving criterion is not intended to precisely represent
individual calving events, but to provide a way to link calving rates to ice dynamics in a physically-based manner, so
that only the bulk calving behaviour of the model is physically meaningful. It should also be noted that the calving
events do not necessarily represent individual icebergs, but
instead a rapid change of terminus position which could also
encompass the release of numerous smaller ice volumes.
2.1
Data sources
The study used data from Helheim Glacier at its point of
furthest retreat in July 2005, since the terminus position at
this date allowed 2 km of bed elevation data for the model
to advance into; this enabled an investigation of a full range
of glacier behaviour. Elevation and velocity were measured
along a flowline close to the centre of the glacier, identified using surface debris features and velocity data (Fig. 1a).
A flowline model is not well suited to representing areas
of convergent flow, such as where the outlet glacier meets
the Greenland Ice Sheet. Therefore, a point was identified
at 152 km along the flowline where the behaviour of the
glacier changes from ice-sheet-type, funnelling ice from a
wide range of angles, to an outlet glacier where the flow is
channelized and the velocity vectors are roughly parallel; the
model was limited to locations downstream of this point.
Bed elevation was taken from a gridded data product available from the Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) (Gogineni, 2012); this product is derived from radar
www.the-cryosphere.net/8/827/2014/
Fig. 2. Model output for 5 yr run with no seasonal inputs. (a) Histogram of calving event sizes (b) Comparison of modelled and observed terminus evolution.
depth measurements made by CReSIS from 2006–2009 and
NASA’s Operation IceBridge from 2009–2011 (Leuschen
et al., 2011). These data provide a horizontal resolution of
500 m and vertical error of around 20 m in areas of good bed
signal, while areas of poor radar return use an interpolated
bed with higher associated error. Surface elevation data were
taken from a pair of ASTER images (July 2005), with photogrammetry providing a digital elevation model (DEM) with
a vertical accuracy of ∼ 10 m (Murray et al., 2010). Surface
velocity was measured by feature tracking between consecutive Landsat-7 ETM+ images (July, August and September
2005), the method and errors are described in detail in Bevan et al. (2012). The model output was compared to observed terminus position; this was measured at the intersection between the flowline and a manually digitized ice front,
mainly using images from Landsat-7 ETM+, but also supplemented by ASTER, SPOT 5 and airborne LiDAR images
where available (Fig. 2b). Errors on these terminus positions
have been estimated to be less than 100 m (Bevan et al.,
2012). The resulting initial geometry of the model is shown
in Fig. 1c.
2.2
Ice flow model
The geometry is used to find the velocity and stress fields
within the glacier using Stokes flow for an incompressible
The Cryosphere, 8, 827–841, 2014
830
S. Cook et al.: Modelling calving at Helheim Glacier
fluid:
∇ · u = 0,
∇ · τ − ∇p = −ρi g,
(2)
(3)
where u is the 2-D velocity vector in the vertical plane, τ
is the deviatoric stress tensor, p is pressure, ρi = 910 kg m−3
is the ice density and g = (0,0,-9.81) m s−2 is gravitational
acceleration. The deviatoric stress is related to the strain rate
(˙ij ) by the constitutive relation:
τij = 2µ˙ij ,
(4)
where the effective viscosity µ is given by
1−n
1
µ = A1/n ˙e n .
2
(5)
where ˙e2 = tr(˙ 2 )/2 is the square of the second invariant of
the strain rate. We use n = 3, as it is the most commonly
used exponent in glaciology. The Arrhenius factor A depends
on the temperature of the ice relative to the pressure melting
point (T 0 ) according to the Arrhenius equation:
0
A = A0 e−Q/RT ,
(6)
where R is the universal gas constant, and Q, the creep activation energy, and the constant A0 depend on the ice temperature. For this study standard values of these constants were
taken from Paterson (1994). In the absence of observational
data, the ice temperature profile with depth was approximated from a thermomechanical modelling study of Jakobshavn Isbræ, a similar outlet glacier on the west coast of
Greenland (Funk et al., 1994). The ice temperature against
relative depth was estimated by fitting a quadratic function
to the modelled profile in Funk et al. (1994)
T = 69.88
z 2.0
z
− 65.08
− 8.85,
H
H
(7)
is measured in ◦ C, z is the height
where the ice temperature T
above the bed and H is the ice thickness. This temperature
profile means that the basal ice never reaches the pressure
melting point.
2.3
Boundary conditions
The glacier surface is assumed to be traction-free, and elevation changes are calculated by the equation for the kinematic
boundary condition:
∂s
∂s
+ ux
= uz + M,
∂t
∂x
(8)
where s is the surface elevation and M the surface mass balance. Mass balance values were estimated from Andersen
et al. (2010), who directly observed melt from stakes placed
along the glacier in two consecutive melt seasons in 2007 and
The Cryosphere, 8, 827–841, 2014
2008. These measurements were assumed to approximate the
entire summer melt. Using a polynomial fit of ablation rates
against elevation this leads to a summer ablation rate of:
M = −1.8 × 10−9 s3 + 4.2 × 10−6 s2 + 1.3
× 10−3 s − 6.9 m a−1 ,
(9)
which places the entire model domain in the ablation area. In
winter, surface mass balance was assumed to be zero since
the dynamic effect of any winter snow is negligible if it all
melts in the succeeding summer.
Since the model uses only a two-dimensional geometry,
technically there are no lateral boundary conditions to apply.
However, this neglects important 3-D processes such as the
confluence of tributaries, the effect on volume conservation
of changes in channel width, and lateral drag from the glacier
margins, which has been suggested to have a stabilising effect on glacier termini (O’Neel et al., 2005). Little can be
done to address the effect of tributaries without switching to
a 3-D geometry, but by measuring the channel width at the
surface and making assumptions about the channel geometry we are able to estimate the lateral drag and flux contribution from changes in channel width. We assume a trapezoidal
channel shape with a width at the base two thirds of that at
the surface, a constant lateral velocity gradient and sliding
at the margins of half the centreline velocity. This leads to a
volume contribution from lateral spreading or constriction of
ice (φ):
φ=−
5 H Ux ∂W
,
8 W ∂x
(10)
where H is the ice thickness and Ux and W are the velocity
and channel width at the surface. This was added as an additional surface mass balance term. The geometry can also be
used to derive a vertically varying lateral drag term:
1
F=
2w(z)
1 ux
2A w(z)
1
n
,
(11)
where w(z) is the channel width at an elevation z and ux the
velocity along flowline. The vertically varying force (F ) was
imposed on each element in the glacier body, opposing flow.
To initialize the model and remove the destabilizing effects of errors in the DEMs used, a spin-up run was performed allowing the surface elevation to evolve until its rate
of change came into line with annual mass balance values.
This process provides a stable starting point for experiments,
although it also means that there are some areas of difference between the modelled and observed geometry and surface velocity profile (Fig. 1b and c). These differences occur
where the model fails to reproduce the full flow behaviour of
the ice, such as regions where 3-D flow features are significant, or where there are errors in the bed DEM, which have
been shown to have a significant effect on modelled velocities (Zwinger and Moore, 2009; Seroussi et al., 2011).
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S. Cook et al.: Modelling calving at Helheim Glacier
831
At the bed, a no-penetration boundary condition was applied. Basal drag was implemented in the model using the
non-linear scheme proposed by Gagliardini et al. (2007). The
drag depends on the effective pressure (N), which is defined
as the difference between ice overburden pressure and water
pressure at the bed (Pw ) which was taken to be equivalent to
depth below sea level.
N = ρi gH − Pw
(12)
In this model the basal drag is given by
1/n
τb
χ
=C
,
N
1 + αχ q
(13)
where
χ=
ub 1/n
C n N n As
(14)
(q − 1)q−1
.
qq
(15)
and
α=
As is the sliding parameter without caviation (as used in
Weertman-type sliding laws), C is the maximum value
reached by τb /N and ub is the basal sliding velocity. The
constants C, As and q were tuned to find the best fit
to the observed surface velocity when the model reached
its relaxed state. The values used were C = 1.0, q = 2.0
and a good fit required two different sliding parameters, As = 1.66×10−58 (m kg)0.5 a−2 where x <166.1 km and
As = 2.76×10−57 (m kg)0.5 a−2 where x >166.1 km.
At the inflow boundary a constant velocity of 3500 m a−1
was applied (an average of the observed surface velocity of
4006 m a−1 and the modelled sliding velocity of approximately 3000 m a−1 ). See Fig. 1b for the surface velocity profile after spin-up.
At the terminus, water pressure was applied to the calving
face, which was allowed to evolve according to the modelled
velocity profile. In experiments where an additional backstress was applied to the calving face to replicate the effect
of ice mélange, this acted parallel to the x axis, in the opposite direction to ice flow, over an appropriate vertical range.
In experiments designed to replicate submarine melt, nodes
on the calving face were negatively displaced, parallel to the
x axis and according to the assumed melt rate. Because the
applied water pressure acts perpendicular to the boundary,
in these experiments the model was able to fully represent
the buoyancy forces arising from the undercut cavity. However, the model is unable to represent floating ice caused by
detachment of the basal ice boundary from the underlying
bedrock, and model runs in which the glacier reached the
flotation point were terminated.
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2.4
Model experiments
The first experiment performed was a control run with no
external forcing, in order to produce a base set of terminus
position and calving event size data. This was used for sensitivity analysis and model validation. The model was then
tested using the four external variables hypothesized to affect
terminus behaviour: depth of water in crevasses, basal water
pressure, undercutting of the terminus by submarine melt and
backstress from ice mélange. The results from the crevasse
water depth experiments were also used to identify cases with
steady and retreating terminus behaviour; these settings were
then used to test the other variables in scenarios with differing terminus behaviour. Each variable was applied in a seasonally varying manner, with maximum values occurring in
a summer season, assumed to last from May to September in
most cases. The only exception was experiments using backstress from ice mélange, which was applied over a reduced
winter season of January–May, effectively creating an additional autumn season (September–January) in which no surface ablation or undercutting occurred and no backstress was
applied. The precise values used for each variable are discussed separately in the relevant results section for the sake
of clarity, and a list of all experiments performed is provided
in Table 1.
In each experiment, the time-step was chosen to ensure
that multiple time-steps occurred between calving events.
This choice is important: if calving were allowed to occur
at every time-step there would be a spurious dependence of
calving rate on the time-step. The time-step necessary depends on the environmental forcing used; in cases where the
model produced more frequent calving events, a time-step
of 0.001 yr (8.8 h) was used, while for cases with less frequent events (such as those with low crevasse water depth) a
maximum of 0.003 yr was chosen. The model used a variable
mesh size of 100 m near the upstream boundary and 40 m at
the calving front.
3
Control run results
In an initial control experiment the model was allowed to run
freely for a 5 yr period, with no water in crevasses or other
external forcing variables. Over the 5 yr period the model
produced 130 calving events (or one every 14 days, on average), with the size distribution roughly normally distributed
around a mean length of 479 m (Fig. 2a). Comparing the
modelled and observed terminus behaviour over this period,
we see that both the model and the real glacier advanced
substantially from their position in July 2005, although the
real glacier advanced somewhat sooner and further than the
model (Fig. 2b). After 1 yr the model’s terminus position
stabilized, whereas the true glacier continued to fluctuate in
length, probably in response to external climate factors.
The Cryosphere, 8, 827–841, 2014
832
S. Cook et al.: Modelling calving at Helheim Glacier
Table 1. Full list of experiments performed, arranged by results section. S and W refer to summer and winter values. Dw is the crevasse water
depth (cwd), dP is the change in hydrostatic head applied to the basal water pressure, Mf is the maximum melt rate applied at the calving
face and Ff is the force applied to the calving front over a vertical range of −120 to 15 m a.s.l. In ice mélange experiments where both the
cwd and the backstress vary, the length of seasons in cwd and backstress do not match, meaning that there is also an autumn season where
both the cwd and the backstress are set at zero.
Cwd
Basal water pressure
dP
(m)
Dw
(m)
3.1
Undercutting
Dw
(m)
Mf
(m a−1 )
Ice mélange
Dw
(m)
Ff
(Nm−1 )
Dw
(m)
S
W
S
W
S
W
S
W
S
W
S
W
S
W
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
0
0
0
0
0
30
0
30
0
0
0
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0
150
150
150
150
150
0
150
150
150
150
150
0
0
0
0
0
0
30
30
30
30
30
30
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5 × 107
10 × 107
25 × 107
50 × 107
0
5 × 107
10 × 107
25 × 107
50 × 107
0
0
0
0
0
30
30
30
30
30
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sensitivity analysis
To test if the chosen mesh density and time-step affected the
results, terminus position and calving event size were examined using a range of time-steps (0.001–0.01 a) and grids
(10–50 m). A grid size of 40 m was selected on the basis that
it was able to resolve all calving events identified with the
10 m mesh, and produced only a 0.2 % change in mean calving event size, and 1.3 % change in terminus position at the
end of a 5 yr run, compared to a grid size of 30 m (the maximum density which could be run in serial due to memory
constraints). Changes in timestep size of only 0.001 a had
a significant effect on the mean size of calving events produced (up to 35 % in some cases), as smaller time-steps allowed smaller calving events to be resolved. However, the
0.003 a timestep chosen had a less than 1.0 % change in final
terminus position compared to a 0.001 a timestep, giving us
confidence in the terminus position as a robust model result.
The model was also tested for sensitivity to errors in the input data used, by examining the terminus position over a 5 yr
run in advancing, steady and retreating experiments (Cook,
2012). No observable effect on the evolution of terminus position arose from changes in the length of the surface relaxation period, the precise formulation of the lateral drag term,
the applied surface mass balance or minor changes in the
bed elevation profile. Changes to the inflow velocity boundary condition (±500 m a−1 ) and the mass balance term used
to correct for 3-D flux properties (50–110 %) were found to
result in minor differences in terminus evolution – the final
terminus position remained the same, but the timing of the
The Cryosphere, 8, 827–841, 2014
advance or retreat differed by an average of 0.75 a with a
maximum of 2.3 a. Changes in the basal water pressure input
to sliding of up to ±100 m showed similar results, though
in one case (with an altered hydrostatic head of 100 m) a
change in final terminus position of 2.5 km occurred. These
three input parameters have the potential to affect results, but
the impact of small errors is likely to be minor. The only input variable to have a substantial effect on model results was
the ice temperature profile used. A change of ±5 ◦ C in the
glacier ice was able to alter final terminus position by up to
4.0 km. To reduce the impact of uncertainty in the ice temperature profile on future modelling work, an extension of
the model to include full thermomechanical coupling should
be used, preferably constrained by observations of ice temperature through borehole measurement.
3.2
Model validation
The nature of these experiments makes it difficult to use normal validation methods to compare the model’s performance
against observed measurements. The terminus evolution of
the model may be tuned to a wide range of behaviour by altering the crevasse water depth, which is a poorly known input variable; therefore, comparing terminus behaviour on its
own was not an appropriate validation method. Instead we
used the control run, which provided a reasonable fit of modelled to observed terminus position, and chose two methods
of comparing the model output to known glacier behaviour:
comparing calving event size distribution and the glacier’s
dynamic response to calving.
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S. Cook et al.: Modelling calving at Helheim Glacier
The model dynamics may be tested by examining the effect of calving events on glacier velocity. It has been reported
by Nettles et al. (2008) that large calving events at Helheim
Glacier occur at the same time as rapid increases in flow
speed of up to 15 % near the calving front, decreasing further
upglacier. When the modelled velocity was examined immediately after large calving events (400–450 m), a similar increase in velocity was observed of up to 10 % near the front,
decreasing to around 1 % 20 km upstream. This behaviour
provides evidence that the model provides a reasonable representation of the interaction between calving and glacier dynamics.
To test the performance of the calving law, we compared modelled calving events with similar observations
from satellite imagery. A calving event is a retreat in the
terminus position over a single timestep, which is directly
comparable to the high frequency observations of terminus
position which can be obtained from satellite imagery. During its retreat, Helheim Glacier was observed to produce distinct calving episodes days to weeks apart, during which the
terminus retreated by 0.5 to 1 km (Joughin et al., 2008b).
This qualitatively agrees with the style of calving produced
by the results presented here, with a typical calving length
of 479 m and frequency of every 14 days. A similar calving event size was also produced by a recent particle-based
model of Helheim Glacier (Bassis and Jacobs, 2013). The approximately normal calving event size distribution produced
by the model disagrees with other published studies which
observe a power-law type distribution of iceberg sizes, where
small ice losses are the most common (Dowdeswell, 1989;
Chapuis, 2011; Åström et al., 2013). This difference is to be
expected given the mesh resolution of 40 m and time-step
of 0.003 yr used in most experiments – this is insufficient to
model very small calving events, but able to capture large
changes in terminus position which are likely to dominate
long-term behaviour. The discrepancy is also affected by the
fact that each calving event predicted by the model does not
necessarily occur by the release of a single iceberg but could
also indicate a rapid disintegration into smaller ice masses. In
fact, this second possibility may be the most likely; in most
of the modelled calving events, areas of ice downstream of
the predicted calving point also become crevassed below the
water line in the same timestep.
4
4.1
Environmental forcing results
Crevasse water depth
Few data are available on the depths of water in crevasses;
therefore, a range of crevasse water depths (henceforth abbreviated as cwd) from 0 to 50 m was selected to represent
a wide range of terminus behaviour (see Table 1). As would
be expected, larger water depths had the effect of deepening
the base of the surface crevasse field (Fig. 3a), causing more
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Fig. 3. Results of crevasse water depth (cwd) experiments. (a) Longitudinal deviatoric stress near terminus (first timestep), showing
the base of the crevasse field (white lines) with differing depths
of water in crevasses from 0 to 50 m. Lower profiles correspond
to greater cwd. (b) Terminus position over the 5 yr model run,
grey shading indicates winter periods where there is no water in
crevasses, white shading indicates summer where a range in cwd
was applied. For clarity the terminus position shown is measured
after each calving event. Experiments were terminated where the
model reached the flotation point.
frequent calving events to occur. The mean calving rate increased from 10.3 km a−1 for the experiment with zero cwd
to 38.2 km a−1 with 50 m cwd. The higher calving rate had
a significant effect on the terminus evolution (Fig. 3b), with
greater crevasse water depths causing the terminus to retreat
up to 17.5 km, while for lower water depths the terminus advanced by up to 3.9 km.
In some experiments the terminus reached the flotation
point, after which point the experiment was terminated as
the model cannot represent floating ice. Figure 3b also shows
that the terminus position at times became fixed at a particular point. These locations typically coincided with a local
bedrock maximum, on which the terminus was pinned as advance of the model into deeper water triggered calving. This
behaviour echoes results using empirical calving laws which
also inhibit advancement into deeper water (Nick and Oerlemans, 2006). However, unlike the experiments using empirical calving laws, as the terminus geometry evolved our model
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S. Cook et al.: Modelling calving at Helheim Glacier
was able to advance past bedrock overdeepenings, although
this often coincided with the model reaching flotation point.
This behaviour mirrors the observation by Joughin et al.
(2008b) that Helheim Glacier advanced past an overdeepening by forming a floating ice tongue to “bridge” the gap.
4.2
Basal water pressure
Observations at Helheim Glacier have linked basal water
pressure and velocity; a study by Andersen et al. (2010) used
a surface mass balance model to find a correlation between
observed surface velocity and estimates of melt water availability. The relationship between surface meltwater and velocity is expected to be complicated; velocities tend to increase with increasing basal water pressure, however, the
basal water pressure depends not only on the flux of water
to the bed but also on the type of drainage system at the
bed. If sufficient water is added to the system it may trigger a change from a distributed to a more efficient channelized drainage system, thus decreasing basal water pressure
(Bartholomew et al., 2010; Howat et al., 2010). Generally,
the percentage of seasonal changes in velocity appear to be
higher on the ice sheet than on outlet glaciers, but even outlet glaciers can show seasonal variations in speed of up to
15 %, thought to be caused by changes in basal water pressure (Joughin et al., 2008a). Satellite observations of Helheim Glacier have shown sub-annual velocity changes of approximately 20–30 % (Bevan et al., 2012); however, it is unclear whether these arise mainly from changes in basal sliding conditions or coincident changes in terminus position.
The model was tested with a summer increase in basal
water pressure of 50 m (measured as change in hydrostatic
head), equivalent to a change in velocity of approximately
15 % as observed by Joughin et al. (2008a), which was designed to represent a spring speed-up event. Since the observed velocities were derived during the period of highest
sliding, this meant that a new set of sliding parameters had
to be used for this experiment. Compared to the control experiment the model with variable basal water pressure has a
lower average sliding velocity, due to the lower sliding rate
in the winter period.
Although the seasonal change in basal sliding had relatively little effect on the instantaneous longitudinal deviatoric stress, causing a mean percentage change of only 1.2 %
(Fig. 4a), it decreased both the mass flux reaching the calving
front and longitudinal extension, thus having a long-term effect on the predicted crevasse field. Two sets of experiments
were performed, first using cwd fixed at 0 m and second using a seasonally varying cwd, with a summer value of 30 m.
Seasonal variation in basal water pressure had a significant
effect on the modelled terminus behaviour in both sets of experiments (Fig. 4), with lower winter sliding velocity causing
a decrease in calving rates and hence a relative advance of
the terminus. For the experiment with 0 m cwd the change in
mean calving rate was not statistically significant, although
The Cryosphere, 8, 827–841, 2014
Fig. 4. Results of basal water pressure experiments. (a) Change in
longitudinal deviatoric stress when a change in hydrostatic head
at the bed of 50 m is applied (first timestep). The base of the
crevasse field is almost identical in both the initial and perturbed
experiments. (b) Seasonally applied change in basal water pressure.
(c) Resultant change in surface velocity at calving front. (d) Evolution in terminus position with fixed and seasonally varying basal
water pressure. (e) Repeat of results shown in (d) but with an additional seasonal change in cwd of 30 m. Grey lines show the continuous terminus position, while darker lines show the terminus position
after each calving event to highlight overall trends.
the final terminus position was altered by 1.9 km. For the experiment with 30 m cwd, the final terminus position changed
by 7.3 km and the mean winter calving rate was 5.1 km a−1
lower than during the summer high sliding period (Fig. 4e).
4.3
Undercutting by submarine melt
Undercutting of the calving face by submarine melt is
hypothesized to affect the surrounding stress balance by
removing supporting ice, and hence affect calving rates
(O’Leary and Christofferson, 2013). Recent observations
around Greenland suggest that submarine melt rates in this
region may be sufficient to have an effect on calving; studies have used either measurements of fjord temperature and
water velocity to estimate the heat flux transported to the
glacier terminus, or used the difference between ice flux
to the grounding line and surface ablation to infer average
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S. Cook et al.: Modelling calving at Helheim Glacier
melt rates across the calving face. Estimated mean melt rates
range from 11 to 1424 m a−1 for glaciers across Greenland
(Rignot et al., 2010; Enderlin and Howat, 2013) and between
205 and 1238 m a−1 for Helheim Glacier (Sutherland and
Straneo, 2012; Enderlin and Howat, 2013). Based on these
estimates, a range of maximum undercutting rates from 1000
to 5000 m a−1 were applied parallel to the flowline, with a
vertical profile of zero melt at the waterline, increasing linearly towards the bed. During the winter season a fixed maximum melt rate (m.m.r.) of 150 m a−1 was used, based on
plume modelling results by O’Leary (2011). A full list of
values used is given in Table 1.
The effect of undercutting on the longitudinal deviatoric
stress distribution around the front is shown in Fig. 5a. There
are areas where the stress is clearly affected, particularly at
the bed around a kilometre behind the front, where the stress
is affected by increased buoyancy forces acting on the ice.
However, the mean change in the stress profile is only 0.6 %
from the original profile, and the change in crevasse field
depth is relatively small, with a maximum of 12 m. As might
be expected from this, the undercutting applied had relatively
little effect on the modelled terminus behaviour, with all experiments reaching the same position after the 5 yr model run
(Fig. 5b). The experiments did show some difference in the
timing of the advance, which was delayed by up to a maximum of 0.44 a for the 5000 m a−1 experiment. In order to
test this result further, a wider range of undercutting rates
was tested to see at what point the terminus would begin to
retreat. As shown in Fig. 6, the rates required to cause terminus retreat were between 10 and 20 km a−1 , around an orderof-magnitude higher than published estimates of melt rates.
4.4
Ice mélange
Ice mélange is a mixture of calved ice and sea ice, often
observed in front of Greenland glaciers. In winter months
this mélange can freeze solid, and provide a stress opposing the flow of the glacier, which has been hypothesized to
inhibit calving. Relatively little is known about the mélange
due to the difficulties in performing studies in the proglacial
fjord environment. In order to include the effects of the ice
mélange in the calving model both its thickness and the stress
it applies on the calving face must be known. Using LiDAR data from July 2007, the ice mélange in front of Helheim Glacier was measured to have a typical freeboard of
10–20 m, discounting isolated larger icebergs. We use a mean
freeboard value of 15 m, equivalent to a full thickness of approximately 135 m. The only study to measure the stress exerted on the calving face used a coincident change in velocity of 15 % upon the break up of the ice mélange at Store
Gletscher, in western Greenland, to estimate a backstress of
30–60 kPa over the full calving face, equivalent to a force of
1.8–3.6 × 107 Nm−1 (Walter et al., 2012). Initial experiments
showed that values lower than this had no observable effect
on the model, therefore experiments were performed using
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Fig. 5. Results of submarine melt experiments. (a) Change in longitudinal deviatoric stress caused by an applied cavity of 200 m, the
resulting displacement in the base of the crevasse field (solid and
dashed lines) was small. (b) Terminus evolution over 5 yr model
run (measured after each calving event). Grey shaded areas indicate
winter season with fixed m.m.r. of 150 m a−1 , white areas indicate
summer with varying m.m.r. applied. The 1000 and 2000 m a−1
lines coincide. (c) Terminus evolution repeated with an additional
seasonal change in cwd of 30 m applied (all lines overlie each
other).
a range of backstress from 0.0 to 50.0 × 107 Nm−1 over the
vertical range of 120 m below to 15 m above sea level, applied during the winter season (see Table 1).
The effect of two of the backstress values on the modelled longitudinal deviatoric stress profile can be seen in
Fig. 7. A backstress of 5.0 × 107 Nm−1 caused very little difference to the stress field around the front (mean absolute
change of 8.5 %), while for a backstress of 25.0 × 107 Nm−1
the change in the stress field was 60.0 %. The effect on the
modelled crevasses was also more significant, showing a
clear reduction in longitudinal crevassed extent of 490 m in
the 25.0 × 107 Nm−1 experiment, while the 5.0 × 107 Nm−1
experiment showed a change in crevassed extent of 25 m
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S. Cook et al.: Modelling calving at Helheim Glacier
Fig. 6. Terminus location after a one year model run, forced with
varying rates of submarine melt. (top) No water in crevasses. (bottom) Seasonally varying cwd with 0 m in winter and 30 m in summer.
(Fig. 7). When the modelled terminus evolution was examined, only the very highest backstress was seen to be able
to affect terminus behaviour (Fig. 8). For both sets of experiments, only a backstress of 50.0 × 107 Nm−1 caused the final
terminus position to change, although in the 0 m cwd experiment the lower values changed the timing of the glacier’s
advance by up to 0.31 a.
5
Discussion
The modelled glacier behaviour is shown to be significantly
more sensitive to environmental factors related to air temperature and surface run-off than to oceanic forcing. This is
of particular interest given that surface mass balance models generally agree that surface ablation has been steadily
increasing in Greenland over the past two decades (Vernon
et al., 2013). The strong effect of water in crevasses may be
expected as this relationship arises axiomatically from the
calving model used. Selecting the values of cwd to use was
challenging as no measurements of observed water depth
have been published, and likely values are difficult to predict given the changing volume of crevasses as ice advects
downstream, and the probable high rate of drainage in the
fractured area around the terminus. Observations have shown
that water-filled crevasses can occur even near the calving
margin (Danielson and Sharp, 2013), so it is at least known
that high water depths are possible in this region, and may
The Cryosphere, 8, 827–841, 2014
become more frequent if the trend of increasing surface ablation continues.
If a hydraulic connection exists between the glacier surface and the bed, surface meltwater can also affect the terminus behaviour by altering basal water pressure, and hence
sliding velocity. Observations of seasonal velocity variations
of 15 % on Greenland outlet glaciers had previously been
concluded to be insufficient to have a large effect on terminus behaviour (Joughin et al., 2008a). The results presented
here indicate that changes in basal water pressure leading
to velocity changes of this magnitude can in fact have a
strong influence on modelled calving rates. The finding supports previous tidewater glacier modelling work (Vieli et al.,
2000) and observations at other tidewater glaciers (Kamb
et al., 1994; Sugiyama et al., 2011; Danielson and Sharp,
2013) which had already observed a significant dynamic response to changes in basal water pressure, and highlights
that changes in basal conditions should not be excluded as
an important influence on tidewater glaciers. The link between changes in air temperature and run-off, and changes
in velocity may, however, be complicated. Adaptations in the
basal hydrology system can mean that an increased input of
water to the bed results in a more efficient drainage system
and hence reduces basal water pressure (Bartholomew et al.,
2010). In the context of previous debate over whether dynamic changes in tidewater glaciers are triggered at the terminus or by changes in velocity (e.g., van der Veen, 2002),
the results from these two sets of experiments (crevasse water depth and basal water pressure) suggest that either mechanism may have a strong influence on glacier dynamics.
In contrast to previous results, the insensitivity to undercutting by submarine melt shown in these experiments
was surprising. Previous research has indicated that a link
between glacier retreat in southeast Greenland and ocean
warming was likely (Murray et al., 2010; Vieli and Nick,
2011), with retreat coinciding with warm ocean temperatures. Previous modelling work has also indicated that undercutting has the potential to cause tidewater glacier retreat (Vieli and Nick, 2011), and in modelling work using a
similar two-dimensional, high-resolution solution of stresses
around the calving front, cavity formation has been shown to
have a significant effect on the stresses around the terminus
(O’Leary and Christofferson, 2013). The study by O’Leary
and Christofferson (2013) was diagnostic, not time-evolving,
and we hypothesize that this was the reason for the difference
between their results and ours.
To test this hypothesis, we set up two experiments: one
applied an undercut cavity of varying length to a fixed terminus while the second applied a fixed undercutting rate, but
also allowed the ice around the terminus to evolve as the
undercut cavity size increased. The results in Fig. 9 show
that when the terminus geometry was fixed, our model reproduced the linear relationship between cavity length and stress
displacement previously reported (O’Leary and Christofferson, 2013). However, when the ice was allowed to deform
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S. Cook et al.: Modelling calving at Helheim Glacier
837
Fig. 7. Change in longitudinal deviatoric stress caused by applying a backstress of both 5.0 × 107 Nm−1 and 25.0 × 107 Nm−1 to the
terminus, over a vertical range of +15 to −120 m (first timestep). Solid lines show the depth of the crevasse field in the initial state and
dashed lines show crevasse depth with backstress applied. The lower backstress value causes little change in the modelled crevasse depth.
it acted to counterbalance this stress displacement, creating
a significantly reduced response to undercutting in the stress
field. It may be, therefore, that the fixed geometry causes the
O’Leary and Christofferson (2013) model to overestimate the
effect of undercutting.
The insensitivity to undercutting would be significantly
different if the undercutting were to be concentrated at the
waterline (i.e. notching), as has previously been observed in
lake-terminating glaciers (Kirkbride and Warren, 1997; Benn
et al., 2001) and tidewater glaciers in Svalbard (Vieli et al.,
2002). In that case the remaining ice block would be unsupported and highly likely to shear off from the glacier, leaving behind a submarine ice foot. This style of calving was
not considered in our model. The terminus of the model remained on a downward sloping bed throughout the experiments, which may also have contributed to the observed insensitivity to undercutting. Previous work on ice sheets has
shown that glaciers may be stable even under grounding-line
retreat on downward facing slopes, but much more sensitive
on reverse bed slopes (Schoof, 2007). To fully determine the
sensitivity of tidewater glaciers to undercutting, future work
should include experiments on a wider range of bed topography.
The experiments presented also showed little relationship
between backstress and terminus behaviour, except in experiments in which the backstress was likely to be unrealistically high. Although little is known about the likely
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magnitude of backstress provided by a proglacial mélange,
it is unlikely to exceed the shear strength of sea ice,
which has been measured at 550 ± 120 kPa (Frederking and
Timco, 1984), while our experiments used stresses of up
to 3.7 MPa. Although these results show that backstress
from ice mélange is unlikely to have a direct effect on the
crevasse field around the terminus, it has been hypothesized
by Amundson et al. (2010) to affect calving rates by exerting enough force to prevent a calved block of ice from tipping, thus keeping it pinned in contact with the main body
of the glacier. Such large blocks of ice could feasibly have a
much greater effect on the stress at the front of the glacier, so
the winter ice mélange should not be discounted as having a
possible effect on calving rates, and future modelling work
should include this type of process.
Model validation using terminus evolution, calving event
size and dynamic response to calving demonstrates that the
model reproduces some key aspects of tidewater glacier behaviour. However, there are areas in which it could be improved; in its current form the model has a number of shortcomings, particularly the approximated ice temperature profile, and the oversimplified parameterization of lateral drag.
The simplified lateral drag means that the model cannot
account for lateral variations in bed topography and sliding rate, which could affect the results. This problem could
be addressed by scaling the model up to three dimensions.
The current temperature field could be improved by using
The Cryosphere, 8, 827–841, 2014
838
Fig. 8. Terminus evolution of modelled glacier with varying backstress applied. (a) No water in crevasses, (b) seasonally varying
cwd applied with a winter value of 0 m and summer value of 30 m.
The two subfigures have different vertical scales. In (a) and (b),
blue shading indicates winter when backstress is applied and there
is no water in crevasses. White shading indicates summer when
backstress is zero and there may be water in crevasses. In (b), yellow shading indicates autumn when there is no backstress and the
crevasses are dry. In (b) all lines overlie each other, with the exception of 50.0 × 107 Nm−1 , which shows different terminus behaviour.
thermodynamically coupled equations to solve for the ice
temperature. The current model presents a thermodynamic
contradiction in that basal temperature is below the pressure
melting point, while our sliding law assumes a non-zero basal
water pressure. This was necessary to perform our basal sliding experiments, however an improved solution for ice temperature would allow us to apply basal sliding in a more rigorous manner.
Aside from these shortcomings, the fact that the terminus
behaviour depends strongly on poorly constrained input variables such as the crevasse water depth means that at present
it is not suitable for use in predicting future tidewater glacier
behaviour. If the model could be more thoroughly validated it
would be a powerful tool to investigate the behaviour of tidewater glaciers, capable of including a wide range of environmental inputs and producing a detailed set of model outputs
for comparison to observation. First, it would also have to be
tested using a better constrained data set with reliable basal
elevation, ice temperature and crevasse depth data. Of these,
the data on crevasse depths would be hardest to procure, and
are unlikely ever to be available on a wide scale. Although
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S. Cook et al.: Modelling calving at Helheim Glacier
Fig. 9. Displacement in stress field caused by undercut cavities of
varying length, applied with both a fixed and evolving terminus.
When the terminus is allowed to evolve, the ice displacement counterbalances the change in the stress field caused by the applied cavity.
this is a significant limitation of the model, it is possible that
with improved data sets for validation and refined models of
crevasse depth it could be overcome.
Despite this limitation in the model presented, by using
consistent crevasse water depths we have produced a set of
properly controlled experiments which allow the impact of
other environmental variables on calving to be investigated.
The results show that both undercutting of the calving face by
subaqueous melt and backstress from ice mélange have little
impact on calving in the model. This result does not depend
on the crevasse water depth, and is observed in experiments
using both 0 m cwd and a seasonally applied depth of 30 m.
In the case of basal sliding the model was observed to respond more strongly to changes in basal water pressure when
combined with a larger crevasse water depth. Although we
can conclude from both sets of experiments (0 m and 30 m
cwd) that a change in basal sliding caused a change in terminus evolution, the strength of the response seems to be
affected by the crevasse water depth used and further experiments using a better validated model of crevasse depth would
be required to assess the magnitude of the response more rigorously.
6
Conclusions
This paper presents a flowline, tidewater glacier model, capable of representing the calving of grounded ice using a
physically-based calving criterion. The results demonstrate
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S. Cook et al.: Modelling calving at Helheim Glacier
that it reproduces key aspects of observed calving behaviour,
examined qualitatively by comparing the size and frequency
of calving events, and the subsequent dynamic response.
However, it would benefit from better data availability for
more rigorous validation. In response to previous debate over
whether glacier retreat is triggered first by glacier acceleration or increases in calving rate, the model results indicate
that either process has the potential to cause terminus retreat and it may be more enlightening to consider the specific
mechanisms involved.
The results presented show a surprising insensitivity to
oceanic influences and a noticeable sensitivity to the effects
of surface ablation. The lack of sensitivity to simulated ice
mélange may be because of the relatively simple representation of its effect on the calving front used in the model. However, the weak effect of submarine melt on calving rates appears to arise from the ability of ice deformation in the model
to counteract the stress displacement caused by a cavity in the
calving front. The strong effect of both crevasse water depth
and basal water pressure on the model’s behaviour raises the
possibility that outlet glaciers may be strongly affected by
recent trends in surface ablation. The results demonstrate the
potential for this type of model to improve understanding of
tidewater glacier dynamics, their response to external forcing, and to diagnose the causes of glacier retreat.
Acknowledgements. This research forms part of the GLIMPSE
project F/00391/J, funded by the Leverhulme Trust Research
Leadership Scheme. The work has been supported by the HPCEUROPA2 project (Project No. 228398) with the support of the
European Commission Capacities Area – Research Infrastructures
Initiative and resources from CSC-Scientific Computing Ltd. We
acknowledge the use of data from CReSIS generated with support
from NSF grant ANT-0424589 and NASA grant NNX10AT68G
and from NASA Operation IceBridge. S. Cook was funded by a
Swansea University postgraduate research studentship; additional
funding was provided by the Conoco-Phillips/Lundin Northern Area Program (CRIOS: Calving Rates and Impact on Sea
Level). N. Selmes was supported by NERC grant [grant number
NE/I007148/1], A. Goldsack by a postgraduate scholarship from
the Leverhulme Trust, and T. D. James by the Climate Change
Consortium of Wales (C3W). This publication is contribution
number 27 of the Nordic Centre of Excellence SVALI, “Stability
and Variations of Arctic Land Ice”, funded by the Nordic Top-level
Research Initiative (TRI).
Edited by: E. Larour
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