Score Prediction Score Prediction

PRO football
Score Prediction
guide
WILLIAM HALL, III
PRO FOOTBALL
SCORE PREDICTION
GUIDE
Copyright © 2015 by William Hall, III
and Andrew Batson
All Rights Reserved.
For more information, visit www.BookwormSports.com
NFL SCORE PREDICTION:
THE BOOKWORM’S BY-THE-NUMBERS CHECKLIST
It all starts with Plays: The first step in predicting the score of an
NFL game is determining the number of offensive plays each team
will have. There are 64 offensive plays in the average NFL game: 27
rushing plays and 37 passing plays. Once you have estimated the
number of offensive plays for each team, the next step is to project
how each team will use its plays. There are only two ways the plays
can be used: (1) Rushing Attempts and (2) Passing Attempts.
From Yards Per Attempt to Total Rushing and Passing Yards: Next
up is to determine the average yards per attempt each team will
gain on its passing and rushing plays. In the NFL, the average yards
per rushing attempt is 4.2 yards and the average yards per passing
attempt is 6.4 yards. Once you have rushing and passing plays and
rushing and passing yards per attempt, you can calculate the number
of net rushing and passing yards that each team will have.
Converting Running and Passing to Points Scored: With an
estimate of rushing plays, rushing yards, passing plays and passing
yards in hand, you can then apply the Get In and Win Score Sheet
factors to forecast how many points each team will score based on
their rushing and passing offenses.
The Impact of Turnovers: The final step is to estimate the number
of points each team will net based on turnovers: Interceptions,
Fumbles and Missed Field Goals. Obviously, takeaways are positive
adjustments to the number of points each team will score and
giveaways are negative adjustments. The Get In and Win Score Sheet
Factors provide the required adjustment for each giveaway and
takeaway.
The Get In and Win Score Sheet provides the Game Plan: The Score
Sheet provides a step-by-step method for forecasting the score of
an NFL game. All you have to do is plug the relevant statistics into
the easy-to-use Score Sheet and — presto — out pops an accurate
prediction of the game score. Best of all, it’s free and can be found in
the Free Stuff Section at www.BookwormSports.com.
Get out of the bleachers and use your expert football knowledge
to GET IN THE GAME: Of course, crunching the numbers is just where
the score prediction fun begins. To really get it right, you need to
consider how the teams matchup against each other and adjust
the calculated numbers up or down based on your own experience,
knowledge and judgment.
Good luck, have fun and may
the odds be with you!!!
NFL SCORE PREDICTION
THE BOOKWORM’S BY-THE-NUMBERS APPROACH
To accurately predict the number of points each team will score in
an NFL game, all you need to do is make a sensible estimate of the
following seven statistics for each of the teams playing in the game:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Rushing attempts
Net rushing yards
Passing attempts
Net passing yards
Fumbles
Interceptions thrown
Missed field goals
1
IT ALL STARTS WITH PLAYS
OFFENSIVE PLAYS ARE PRECIOUS
The economic theory behind allocating scarce and valuable
investment capital forms the basis for my score prediction method,
with offensive plays serving as the underlying currency and points
earned being the economic measurement unit.
When managing an investment portfolio, my principle consideration
is properly allocating the precious investment capital that has been
entrusted to my care. That’s because the amount of capital that any
investor has is limited. Thus, it is paramount to deploy the capital
carefully to maximize investment returns while minimizing risk.
Plays in a football game can be viewed in the same way as investment
capital. Since plays are limited in number (which obviously makes
them precious), coaches and quarterbacks should spend them wisely
to maximize their value.
VALUING PLAYS AND YARDS
RUSHING AND PASSING PLAY VALUES
Passing and rushing plays represent a charge or use of capital, with
each passing play being assigned a negative value because the play
consumes a resource. There are 64 offensive plays in the average NFL
game: 37 passing plays (sacks are considered passing plays) and 27
rushing plays.
Since plays are limited in number (which obviously makes them
precious), coaches should “spend” them carefully.
In terms of capital allocation, a passing play can have an additional
negative impact because the game clock stops on incomplete passes,
which allows more time for the opposing team to possess the ball
and provides additional opportunities for the opponent to score.
Thus, passing plays cost a negative .31 points per play.
2
On the other hand, while a rushing play also represents a spent play,
the game clock usually continues to run after the rushing play is
completed, which has the benefit of reducing the amount of time the
opponent can possess the ball. For rushing plays, the value received
from keeping the game clock winding down more than compensates
for the negative spending associated with using the play to run the
football.
That’s why rushing plays have a positive value in my economically
based score prediction model. Thus, rushing plays are rewarded and
credited a positive value of .07 points per play.
Since the basic purpose of rushing and passing plays is to advance
the ball while attempting to score points, a point value can also be
determined and assigned to each rushing yard and passing yard.
Rushing yards have a value of .08 points per yard. Because more bad
things can happen on a pass play (sack, interception, incompletion)
than on a running play, pass plays are more risky, but when a pass
is completed the average total yards gained are more than for the
average running play. Thus, pass plays are higher-risk but higherreward and are assigned a value of .10 points per yard.
The following chart summarizes the point values associated with
running plays, passing plays and yards gained:
RUSHING
PASSING
Play Value
.07 points per play
-.31 points per play
Yardage Value
.08 points per yard
.10 points per yard
3
TURNOVERS ARE A MAJOR FACTOR
TURNOVER VALUES
Any experienced NFL fan can tell you that turnovers significantly
influence game outcomes. Here’s why: In the average NFL game, each
team has approximately 12 scoring possessions, or drives, so each
drive is extremely valuable.
Every turnover committed (fumble and interception) or missed field
goal uses up one of the 12 scoring opportunities with no points
earned. To make matters worse, giveaways provide the opponent
with an additional chance to score.
The values for turnovers and missed field goals are reported in the
table below.
GIVEAWAYS
TAKEAWAYS
Interceptions
-1.6 points
3.1 points
Fumbles
-2.1 points
1.9 points
Missed Field Goals
-4.2 points
N/A
STOLEN TREASURE AND DREADFUL DEEDS
I think about takeaways as stolen treasure because of the high pointvalue associated with each fumble recovered and pass intercepted.
On the other hand, a turnover (including a missed field goal) is the
worst thing that can happen offensively on the football field. That’s
because giveaways completely eliminate a scoring drive and often
give the other team favorable field position from which to begin their
scoring drive. That’s why I refer to fumbles lost, interceptions thrown
and missed field goals as dreadful deeds.
4
PLAYS ARE PRECIOUS
ALLOCATING PLAYS: COACHES SHOULD USE THE
MIDAS TOUCH
Now that we know the value of each passing play and each running
yard; the point-value corresponding to each passing and running
yard; and the points associated with turnovers, the remaining scoring
prediction analysis focuses on how each team chooses to use their
plays and how successful they are in executing them.
As a professional money manager, I am trained to selectively allocate
— or spend — a client’s investment funds because everyone’s
investment capital is limited. Analyzing how a portfolio is allocated
can tell you a lot about an investor’s approach to the financial
markets and their risk tolerance.
I view football plays in the same way as investment capital and
studying how a team allocates its limited number of plays (or its
football investment capital) can provide an insider’s perspective into
their approach to winning football games.
As an example, consider the Seattle Seahawks. While many teams in
the NFL have taken to the air in recent years as offensive coordinators
have built their game plans around favorable rules restricting
defensive contact with receivers, the Seahawks have instead adopted
a run-heavy offensive approach which emphasizes ball control and
limiting turnovers.
“It’s a commitment,” said Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell
Bevell. “It’s something that we’re totally committed to.” When head
coach Pete Carroll was asked about the Seahawks’ commitment
to the run, he confidently offered this summary of his overall
philosophy: “It’s the most consistent, proven championship formula
in the history of this game.”
Seattle’s ground-and-pound system has indeed been successful as
the Seahawks were the 2013 NFL Champions and the runner-up in
2014.
5
Carroll’s run-first view was formed early in his NFL coaching career
which began in the mid-1980s. It was the success of the Buffalo Bills,
the Dallas Cowboys and Denver Broncos in the 1990s that focused
Carroll on the importance of a potent running attack.
That’s because from 1990 to 1993, Buffalo went to four consecutive
Super Bowls while leading the NFL in rushing in 1991 and 1992 and
finishing seventh in running yards gained in 1990 and eighth in 1993.
When the Cowboys won the Super Bowl in 1992, they were fifth in
rushing. And Dallas was even better when they won it again in 1993
and 1995, ranking second in the league in rushing in both seasons.
The Broncos, the Super Bowl winners in 1997 and 1998, stacked up as
the fourth best running team in 1997 and second best in 1998.
According to Carroll, “The running game enables a team to control
the ball, convert short-yardage and goal-line situations, and wear
down the opposition.”
Running back Marshawn Lynch is the bell cow of Seattle’s running
game which was tops in the league in 2014. Lynch is a bruising, movethe-chains type who can quickly turn arm tackles into turnstiles. His
punishing bowling ball-like running style can wear down defenses
and is a perfect fit for Carroll’s grind-it-out formula for winning
championships.
Recall, that a team has only about 64 offensive plays to allocate in an
NFL game. Looking at a team’s historical run-pass distribution and
then considering how they matchup against their opponent’s defense
should be your guide when estimating how a team will allocate its
limited offensive opportunities.
6
GET IN AND WIN SCORE SHEETS
A QUICK REVIEW
To recap, to predict the score of an NFL game, you’ll need to make an
accurate estimate of the following seven statistics:
•
Rushing attempts
•
Net rushing yards
•
Passing attempts
•
Net passing yards
•Fumbles
•
Interceptions thrown
•
Missed field goals
THE GET IN AND WIN PRO FOOTBALL SCORE SHEETS
To help organize the score prediction process, I created proprietary
Get In and Win Pro Football Score Sheets. The Score Sheets provide a
step-by-step method for forecasting the score of an NFL game.
All you have to do is plug the relevant statistics into the easy-to-use
Score Sheet and – presto – out pops an accurate score prediction of
the game score.
On the next page you’ll find a blank Get In and Win Pro Football Score
Sheet.
7
GET IN AND WIN SCORE SHEET
PRO FOOTBALL
GAME:
DATE:
VISITOR
FACTOR VALUE
PLAY AVG
HOME
PLAY AVG
RUSHING
Play Cost
0.07
Rushing Plays
Yardage Value
0.08
Yards
Rushing Points
PASSING
Play Cost
-0.31
Passing Plays
Yardage Value
0.10
Yards
Passing Points
GIVEAWAYS
GIVEAWAYS
Interceptions
-1.6
Interceptions
Fumbles
-2.1
Fumbles
Missed FGs
-4.2
Missed FGs
Giveaway Points
TAKEAWAYS
TAKEAWAYS
Interceptions
3.1
Interceptions
Fumbles
1.9
Fumbles
Takeaway Points
PLUS HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE
3
SCORE PREDICTION
LEARN MORE ON HOW TO PREDICT NFL SCORES USING SCORE SHEETS! Visit www.BookwormSports.com for your copy of Changing the Game, and the
Get In and Win Pro Football Playbook.
8
WALL STREET USES DUPONT ANALYSIS
The Score Sheet allows you to drill into the detail and analyze the
individual factors that determine the score of the game with just a
few simple inputs.
When analyzing stocks on Wall Street, many professional investors
use a technique called DuPont analysis to drill deeper into the
elements influencing corporate profitability. There are five factors
that determine how much money a company will make: (1) asset
turnover; (2) operating margins; (3) amount of debt; (4) interest rate
paid on debt; and (5) effective income tax rate.
By breaking corporate financial performance into distinct parts and
focusing on the individual pieces, professional money managers
can evaluate how effectively a company is using its assets, leading
them to investment opportunities that are not apparent to less
sophisticated investors.
I created The Get In and Win Pro Football Score Sheet to provide NFL
fans with a tool similar to DuPont Analysis. That’s because the Score
Sheet separates the key statistics that determine how many points a
team will score in a game into distinct pieces so football fans can get
a better understanding of the factors influencing team performance.
9
GET IN THE GAME
IT’S GAME TIME!
To pull all of this together, let’s use a Score Sheet to predict the scores
of some games so you can see how all of this works.
That means it’s time to get your pencil sharpened so we can get down
to it!
Recall that the first step in formulating an accurate score prediction is
estimating the following key game statistics for each team:
•
Rushing attempts
•
Net rushing yards
•
Passing attempts
•
Net passing yards
•Fumbles
•
Interceptions thrown
•
Missed field goals
How do you come up with an estimate for each of these statistics?
To avoid guessing, I suggest looking at the per-game season averages
for each team. You can get these stats for free by sorting through
various football websites but I recommend using www.pro-footballreference.com.
You can also find them in the membership section of my website
www.bookwormsports.com but you’ll be asked to pay a small
weekly administrative fee to cover the cost of organizing them and
presenting them to you in an easy-to-use format.
While the Bookworm Stats may cost a couple of bucks a week, I think
you’ll find that they are worth it because with the Bookworm Stats in
hand you can spend your time making score predictions instead of
digging up and refining the underlying information.
Once you have gathered your stats, you’re ready to move on in the
score prediction process.
 10
For fun, let’s use the Score Sheets to see how the NFL’s conferencechampionship weekend might have turned out had the AFC and NFC
teams switched opponents – meaning what would have happened if
the Colts had played the Seahawks and the Patriots and had played
the Packers.
The table below reports the 2014 per-game season-average key
statistics for the Indianapolis Colts and the Seattle Seahawks prior to
their NFL conference championship games.
COLTS
Offense
Rushing
Attempts
SEAHAWKS
Defense
Offense
Defense
26.0
25.8
32.5
24.1
Rushing Yards
Rushing Yds
per Att
Passing
Attempts
101.4
111.8
168.4
84.5
3.9
4.3
5.2
3.5
43.2
37.2
30.6
34.2
Passing Yards
Passing Yds per
Att
307.1
222.9
205.8
188.2
7.1
6.0
6.7
5.5
Interceptions
1.0
0.7
0.4
0.9
Fumbles
Missed Field
Goals
0.9
0.9
0.4
0.7
0.1
0.4
We can use these statistics and put them in a Get In and Win Pro
Football Score Sheet to predict the score of an imaginary game
played between the Colts and the Seahawks at Seattle’s CenturyLink
field.
You’ll see the results on the next page.
 11
GET IN AND WIN SCORE SHEET
PRO FOOTBALL
GAME: Indianapolis
DATE:
Colts vs. Seattle Seahawks
January 18, 2015
VISITOR
HOME
COLTS
SEAHAWKS
NFL
Average
Colts
Offense
Seahawks
Defense
Rushing Att
26.7
26.0
24.1
Rushing Yds
111.3
101.4
84.5
4.2
3.9
Yds per Att
3.5
Points
Passing Att
37.3
43.2
34.2
Passing Yds
236.8
307.1
188.2
Yds per Att
6.4
7.1
5.5
Points
Predicted
Seahawks
Offense
Colts
Defense
32.5
25.8
168.4
111.8
23.5
76.9
3.3
7.8
5.2
4.3
Points
39.7
244.1
6.1
12.1
30.6
37.2
205.8
222.9
6.7
6.0
Points
Predicted
31.4
169.1
5.3
15.7
30.5
193.7
6.3
9.9
GIVEAWAYS
Points
1.0
1.0
0.1
-4.2
Points
0.3
0.6
2.1
Interceptions
0.9
1.0
0.9
Fumbles
0.6
0.9
0.7
Missed FG
0.3
0.1
Points
0.3
0.6
0.4
-3.3
Points
1.0
1.0
5.0
0.4
0.7
0.4
0.9
0.4
TAKEAWAYS
Interceptions
Fumbles
TOTAL POINTS
17.8
TOTAL POINTS
Plus Home Field
17.8
27.4
3
30.4
LEARN MORE ON HOW TO PREDICT NFL SCORES USING SCORE SHEETS! Visit www.BookwormSports.com for your copy of Changing the Game and the
Get In and Win Pro Football Playbook.
 12
As you can see, this Score Sheet Analysis takes the season-average
key statistics for the Colts and the Seahawks and then combines
them with season-average stats for the entire NFL using a time-tested
statistical technique to calculate the expected result for each of the
key Get In and Win game statistics. It then reports the score prediction
for the Colts-Seahawks matchup.
This Score Sheet forecasts that the Seahawks will defeat the Colts
by the score of 30.4 to 17.8 (after considering the 3-point home team
advantage in the NFL). Let’s review the key variables used in this
Score Sheet:
Number of Plays: During the 2014 season, the Colts averaged
about 69 offensive plays per game and the Seahawks
averaged about 63 offensive plays. The NFL average is 64
offensive plays per game.
Using these numbers as inputs, the Score Sheet assumes
that Colts will have approximately 63 offensive plays and
the Seahawks will have 62 in our imaginary Colts-Seahawks
matchup.
Rushing Offense: During the 2014 season, the Colts ran the
ball 26 times per game, gaining 101.4 yards while averaging
3.9 yards per running attempt. On the other hand, the
Seahawks ran the ball 32.5 time per game, gaining 168.4 yards
while averaging 5.2 yards per running attempt.
The average NFL team ran the ball 26.7 times per game,
gaining 111.3 yards while averaging 4.2 yards per rushing
attempt.
After considering how Indianapolis’s rushing offense matches
up against Seattle’s rushing defense and Seattle’s rushing
offense matches up against Indianapolis’s rushing defense,
the Score Sheet forecasts that in our imaginary ColtsSeahawks matchup the Colts will run the ball about 24 times,
gain about 77 yards and average 3.3 yards per rushing attempt
while the Seahawks will run the ball about 31 times, gain
about 169 yards and average 5.3 yards per rushing attempt.
 13
Passing Offense: During the 2014 season, the Colts attempted
to pass the ball 43.2 times per game, gaining 307.1 yards while
averaging 7.1 yards per passing play. On the other hand, the
Seahawks attempted to pass the ball 30.6 time per game,
gaining 205.8 yards while averaging 6.7 yards per passing play.
The average NFL team attempted to pass the ball 37.3 times
per game, gaining 236.8 yards while averaging 6.4 yards per
passing play.
After considering how Indianapolis’s passing offense matches
up against Seattle’s passing defense and Seattle’s passing
offense matches up against Indianapolis’s passing defense,
the Score Sheet forecasts that in our imaginary ColtsSeahawks matchup the Colts will attempt to pass the ball
about 40 times, gain about 244 yards and average 6.1 yards
per passing play while the Seahawks will attempt to pass the
ball about 31 times, gain about 194 yards and average 6.3
yards per passing attempt.
Giveaways and Takeaways: During the 2014 season, the
Colts, threw, on average, 1 interception, fumbled the ball
away .9 times and missed .1 field goals per game. On the
other hand, the Seahawks threw, on average, .4 interceptions,
fumbled the ball away .4 times and missed .4 field goals per
game.
The average NFL team threw, on average, .9 interceptions,
fumbled the ball away .6 times and missed .3 field goals per
game.
After considering how Indianapolis’s offense matches up
against Seattle’s defense and Seattle’s offense matches up
against Indianapolis’s defense in terms of turnovers, the
Score Sheet forecasts that in our imaginary Colts-Seahawks
matchup the Colts will throw 1 interception, fumble the ball
away 1 time and not miss a field goal while the Seahawks will
likely fumble the ball away 1 time.
 14
In an NFL game, a team’s passes intercepted and fumbles
recovered must be equal to their opponent’s interceptions
thrown and fumbles lost. Thus, the takeaway portion of the
Score Sheet for each team is completed using their opponent’s
giveaway statistics.
With an estimate of rushing plays, rushing yards, passing
plays, passing yards, giveaways and takeaways in hand, the
Score Sheet applies the Get In and Win factors to these key
statistics to predict how many points each team will score.
Drilling down further into the key performance areas, we see:
Rushing Offense: Seahawks with a 7.9 point predicted
advantage (15.7 points for Seattle, compared to 7.8 points for
Indianapolis).
Passing Offense: Colts with a 2.2 point predicted advantage
(12.1 points for Indianapolis, compared to 9.9 points for
Seattle).
Giveaway Points: Seahawks with a .9 point predicted
advantage (3.3 points given away by Seattle, compared 4.2
points given away by Indianapolis).
Takeaway Points: Seahawks with a 2.9 point predicted
advantage (5 points for Seattle, compared to 2.1 points for
Indianapolis).
Adding this all up and considering the 3-point home field advantage,
the Score Sheet forecasts that the Seahawks would likely defeat the
Colts by the score of 30.4-17.8.
What’s more, from the Score Sheet, you know that the primary factors
likely to propel Seattle to victory are the significant advantages the
Seahawks have in running the football and in points generated from
turnovers. The Score Sheet analysis also reveals that while the Colts
have an advantage in passing offense, it’s probably not going to
be enough to offset the advantage Seattle gains from successfully
running the football.
 15
Now, let’s take a look at the Packers-Patriots game using the Get In
and Win Score Sheet.
The table below reports the 2014 per-game season-average key
statistics for the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots
prior to their NFL conference championship games.
PACKERS
Offense
Rushing
Attempts
PATRIOTS
Defense
Offense
Defense
27.4
28.1
26.5
26.3
Rushing Yards
Rushing Yds
per Att
Passing
Attempts
119.8
121.4
102.4
106.2
4.4
4.3
3.9
4.0
35.4
36.9
40.5
38.8
Passing Yards
Passing Yds per
Att
268.6
223.1
266.4
242.9
7.6
6.0
6.6
6.3
Interceptions
0.4
1.1
0.6
1.1
Fumbles
Missed Field
Goals
0.5
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.1
As we did in the previous Colts-Seahawks example, we can use these
statistics for Green Bay and New England and put them in a Get In
and Win Pro Football Score Sheet to predict the score of an imaginary
game played between the Packers and the Patriots at Gillette
Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
The results appear on the next page.
 16
GET IN AND WIN SCORE SHEET
PRO FOOTBALL
GAME: Green
Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots
DATE: January 18, 2015
VISITOR
HOME
PACKERS
PATRIOTS
NFL
Average
Packers
Offense
Patriots
Defense
Rushing Att
26.7
27.4
26.3
Rushing Yds
111.3
119.8
106.2
4.2
4.4
Yds per Att
4.0
Points
Passing Att
37.3
35.4
38.8
Passing Yds
236.8
268.6
242.9
Yds per Att
6.4
7.6
6.3
Points
Predicted
Patriots
Offense
Packers
Defense
26.5
28.1
102.4
121.4
26.9
114.3
4.2
11.0
3.9
4.3
Points
36.8
275.5
7.4
16.1
40.5
36.9
266.4
223.1
6.6
6.0
Points
Predicted
27.9
111.7
4.0
10.9
40.1
251.0
6.2
12.7
GIVEAWAYS
Points
0.4
0.4
0.4
-3.0
Points
0.7
0.2
2.6
Interceptions
0.9
0.4
1.1
Fumbles
0.6
0.5
0.5
Missed FG
0.3
0.4
0.6
1.1
0.2
0.6
0.1
Points
0.7
0.2
0.1
-2.1
TAKEAWAYS
Interceptions
Fumbles
TOTAL POINTS
26.7
0.4
0.4
2.1
TOTAL POINTS
Plus Home Field
26.7
23.5
3
26.5
LEARN MORE ON HOW TO PREDICT NFL SCORES USING SCORE SHEETS! Visit www.BookwormSports.com for your copy of Changing the Game and the
Get In and Win Pro Football Playbook.
 17
This Score Sheet forecasts that the Packers-Patriots matchup is a toss
up with a predicted final score of 26.7-26.5 points (after considering
New England’s 3-point home field advantage).
Let’s drill down into the key performance areas to see what the Score
Sheet tells us:
Rushing Offense: Packers with a .1 point predicted advantage
(11 points for Green Bay, compared to 10.9 points for New
England).
Passing Offense: Packers with a 3.4 point predicted
advantage (16.1 points for Green Bay, compared to 12.7 points
for New England).
Giveaway Points: Patriots with a .9 point predicted advantage
(2.1 points given away by New England, compared 3 points
given away by Green Bay).
Takeaway Points: Packers with a .5 point predicted
advantage (2.6 points for Green Bay, compared to 2.1 points
for New England).
Looking at the Score Sheet, we can see that Green Bay has an
advantage in all of the key performance areas except giveaway points
which is a result of the Packer’s shaky field goal kicking. Moreover, the
Score Sheet confirms that because of their outstanding quarterbacks,
Aaron Rodgers for the Packers and Tom Brady for the Patriots, these
teams would have been evenly matched had they played a year-end
shootout in Foxborough.
 18
THE WINNING EDGE: EXPERIENCE, KNOWLEDGE AND JUDGMENT
Of course, crunching the numbers is just where the score prediction
fun begins. To really get it right, you need to consider how the teams
matchup against each other and adjust the calculated numbers up
or down based on your own expert insights. That’s because it’s your
own experience, knowledge and judgment that will give you the
winning edge!
 19
GET OUT OF THE BLEACHERS AND IN THE GAME!
An excel Score Sheet (similar to those presented for the ColtsSeahawks and Packers-Patriots games) that performs all the
calculations for you is available for free on the Bookworm Sports
website (link). It’s in the Free Stuff section (link).
ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS ENTER YOUR ESTIMATES FOR THE KEY STATS
INTO THE SCORE SHEET AND OUT WILL POP THE EXPECTED RESULT
OF THE GAME. THE SCORE SHEET DOES ALL THE MATHEMATICAL
HEAVY LIFTING FOR YOU!
You can even change your inputs for different game scenarios and
watch the score prediction adjust in real time.
IT’S EASY, FUN AND BEST OF ALL, THE RESULT IS STATISTICALLY
ACCURATE!
For those interested in the mathematical theory supporting the Score
Sheet’s predicted results for each team’s stats, there’s an explanation
in the FAQ section of the website (link).
Of course, crunching the numbers is just where the score prediction
fun begins. To really get it right, you need to consider how the teams
matchup against each other and adjust the calculated numbers up or
down based on your own experience, knowledge and judgment. You
can purchase the Get In and Win Pro Football Matchup Analysis Charts
in the membership section of the website (link).
That’s because, in the end, it’s your own expert insights into the NFL
that will give you the winning edge! But the Get In and Win By-TheNumbers Score Sheet Analysis is a great starting point.
And it’s a lot of fun too!!! Try it and I think you’ll agree!!!
Please feel free to email me ([email protected]) with your
questions or comments.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
WILLIAM HALL, III
Bill Hall loves numbers! As a
professional money manager, he
uses them every day on Wall Street to
predict which investments have the
best potential for future profits. Bill’s
passion for the stock market is rivaled
only by his love of sports.
Bill believes that sports wagering
provides informed sports fans a fun
and exciting chance to Get In the
Game alongside their favorite players,
coaches and teams. And when
pursued with the same rigor as stock market investing, he’s
confident that — for those select few that decide to take their
passion for sports to the next level — it’s an opportunity to make
a lot of money.
That’s why Bill wrote this guide. He is committed to showing you
how to break through the traditional NFL box score in a way that
reveals an entirely new way of thinking about the game. As you
read it, you’ll gain fascinating new insights into how the game is
played and what separates the winners from the losers.
Bill has attained and holds the prestigious credentials of
Certified Public Accountant (CPA), Chartered Financial Analyst
(CFA) and Certified Financial Planner (CFP). During his career, Bill
has founded his own accounting firm, served as the managing
director of a large regional trust company and held the positions
of senior executive officer and CEO in a world renowned
publically traded investment management company.
Currently, he is a principal of a wealth management firm that
provides financial, investment and tax advice to wealthy families
located all over the world. He lives in Cape Elizabeth, Maine.
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