CCC long term care funding and costing model (slides)

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CCC long term care funding and costing model (slides)
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CCC Long Term Care
Funding and Costing Model
Alan Stockbridge
September 2001
Introduction
 Model developed 1998-99
 2 parts to the model :
 Costing model
 Funding model
 Projections up to 2030
Aims of Model
 To put a cost on the current level of long term
care
 To calculate the split of costs paid for by the
state and the person receiving care
 To enable the CCC to contribute fully to the
public debate once the Royal Commission
was published
Costing Model
 Number of individuals needing care in a
nursing home, residential home and in their
own home
 Per person total cost of care in each of these
environments
 Split of these costs into :
 Nursing care
 Personal care
 Living costs
Nursing Homes
 Number in nursing home :
 OPCS survey of disability in Great Britain
 Disability categories 9 and 10 and 50% category 8
 Cost estimate £350 per week
 Split of costs from sample nursing home
Residential Home
 Number in residential homes : OPCS
disability categories 1-7 plus 50% category 8
 Cost estimate £250 per week
 Split of costs estimated from Laing and
Buisson and Joseph Rowntree Foundation
Inquiry
D
Domiciliary Care
 OPCS number of lives with disabilities in
domiciliary environment split by severity
categories
 Cost estimated as
 hours care per week x cost of care
 NHS care counted as nursing care
 Private, local authority and informal care
counted as personal care
DOMICILIARY CARE
Domiciliary Care - Numbers (000’s over age 60 needing care)
Total population over 60
12,157
Severity category 1-3
2,039
Severity category 4-7
1,888
Severity category 8-10
912
Total disabled over 60
4,839
Estimated number in
establishments
Estimated number in domiciliary
environment
459
4,380
Informal Care
 Cost of informal care estimated as cost of
home help at £4 an hour
 Number of hours care needed estimated by
severity category:
1 - 3
4 - 7
 8 - 10
10 hours per week
30 hours per week
30 hours per week
 Subjective assumptions
Project Number - Needing Care Total
9000
8000
Number (000's)
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2000
2005
2010
Nursing Homes
Year
2015
Residential Home
2020
Domiciliary Care
2025
2030
Estimated Total Costs - Care In 2000
Split of Care Costs
Estimated Care
Costs
Percentage of
Total Costs
Living Costs
£ 4.17 bn
14%
Personal Care
£ 4.88 bn
16%
Informal Care
£19.04 bn
62%
Nursing Care
£ 2.59 bn
8%
Total Costs
£30.68 bn
Funding Model
 Individual funding :
 income
 financial assets
 housing equity
 Government funding :
 attendants allowance
 personal allowance
 means test allowance
Estimated Split of Funding
% paid by the
government
% paid by the
individual
Nursing Home
40%
60%
Residential Home
45%
55%
Domiciliary Care
13%
87%
Sensitivity to Assumptions
 Model only as good as the assumptions it is
based on
 More up to date information available?
 Impact of future trends
 Sensitivity analysis
Reduction in Informal Care
 Total informal care costs estimated at £19bn.
 Impact of a 10% shift from a domiciliary
environment to care homes
 nursing home costs increase by 30%
 residential home costs increase by 155%
 total care costs increase by 12%
Increase in Care Costs
 A 5% increase in the cost of providing
domiciliary care increases total care costs by
3.8%
 A 5% increase in both nursing home and
residential home costs only increases total
care costs by 1%

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