Retail Property in Belgium

Retail Property in Belgium
Large project pipeline for 2016
Quarterly Market Update - Pulse June 2016
146,000 sq.m. taken up as at mid-May
2016, of which 105,300 sq.m. in the first
quarter alone.
115,200 sq.m. delivered in Q1 2016, the
highest quarterly volume of the past five
years.
€
€ 2,000/sq.m./year prime rent for
high streets.
Prime rents forecast to remain stable for
prime locations.
€ 168 million invested as at mid-May 2016,
of which € 113 million in the first quarter.
2
| pulse | BELGIAN RETAIL MARKET |
JUNE 2016
www.jll.be
Key Market Indicators
• Total take-up in Q1 2016 was 105,300 sq.m., the highest level recorded in a first quarter in the
past three years, but 20% below the volume registered the previous quarter. As at mid-May
the take-up volume had risen to 146,000 sq.m., mainly retail warehousing.
• Large transactions in 2016 so far include 4,000 sq.m. let by Decathlon in Hasselt, 1,800 sq.m.
let by JD Sports in Brussels (Rue Neuve) and 1,650 sq.m. let by H&M in Geraardsbergen.
• Over 115,200 sq.m. were delivered in Q1 2016, the highest quarterly volume of the past five
years.
• Prime rents in high streets amount to €2,000/sq.m. p.a. and apply to the prime high streets
in Brussels (Rue Neuve, Avenue Louise) and to Antwerp (Meir, Schuttershofstraat).
• € 168 mln were invested in retail so far this year, €113 mln of which in the first quarter, 16%
below the volume recorded in the same quarter last year. The pipeline, however, is worth close
to €1.3 billion.
• Prime yields for high streets amount to 3.75%, 4.25% for shopping centres and 5.75% for
retail warehousing. The downward trend persists.
• Market conditions are difficult due to the lockdown after the terrorist attacks in Paris and
Brussels. As a consequence online sales grew 34% in 2015, to €8.2 bn, but overall retail sales
still declined q-o-q. Consumer confidence stabilised at -8 in May after declining in the first
four months of the year, mainly due to deteriorating prospects for the general economy and
for employment.
Market conditions
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Change
Consumer Confidence (NBB/BNB)
-3
-7
-4
Retail Sales Vol. Index* (Eurostat)
101.26
100.08
-118bps
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Change
Take-up - current quarter (sqm)
135,200
105,300
-22%
Take-up - LTM** cumulative (sqm)
384,800
417,000
8%
Completions - LTM** cumul. (sqm)
159,000
247,500
56%
Prime Rent (€/sq.m./year)
2,000
2,000
0%
Investment market
> 2.5 MEUR
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Change
Investment volume LTM**
cumulative (MEUR)
2,086
2,016
-3%
Prime Yield % - high street
3.75
3.75
0%
Prime Yield % - shopping centres
4.25
4.25
0%
Prime Yield % - retail warehousing
5.75
5.75
0%
Occupier market
*DEFLATED AND DESEASONALISED - 2010 = 100
**LTM : LAST 12 MONTHS
Outlook
Outlook
Outlook
Sources : Eurostat, NBB, JLL Research 3
| pulse | BELGIAN RETAIL MARKET |
JUNE 2016
www.jll.be
Take-up
High Streets
Just under 25,000 sq.m. were taken up in the Belgian high streets in the first quarter of 2016, up 11% on the
first quarter last year, and 26% above the average volume recorded in a first quarter in the past five years. As
at May 2016 the total volume registered in high streets had risen to 35,600 sq.m. The Big Six cities (Brussels,
Antwerp, Ghent, Liège, Brugge and Hasselt) attracted two thirds of the volume taken up in high streets so far
this year, in line with previous years. This year so far the volume represents over 23,000 sq.m.. The highest
volume was recorded in Brussels (10,430 sq.m.), followed by Antwerp (6,000 sq.m.) and Ghent (2,650 sq.m.).
1,750 sq.m. were taken up in Brugge, 831 sq.m. in Liège and 670 sq.m. in Hasselt.
With regard to number of transactions, 191 transactions were recorded as at mid-May 2016, representing
already 47% of the average number of transactions for a whole year, 405. The largest transactions in high
streets were the letting by JD Sports of 1,800 sq.m. in Brussels Downtown, Rue Neuve 48, formerly occupied
by Bershka, 1,650 sq.m. let by H&M in Geraardsbergen and 850 sq.m. let by Fish & Chips in Antwerp
(Kammenstraat).
Shopping Centres
Approx. 8,800 sq.m. were taken up in shopping centres in Q1 2016, nearly triple the volume registered in the
same quarter last year and the highest volume for a first quarter of the past four years. It remains nevertheless
30% below the average quarterly volume of the past five year, 12,500 sq.m., which confirms that a first quarter
is usually the weakest quarter of the year. As at mid-May, the take-up volume had risen to 11,500 sq.m. As
at mid-May, 7 transactions were recorded in Waasland Shopping Center, some 10 pre-lettings were signed in
Docks Bruxsel and 6 transactions in Les Grands Prés in Mons. The largest transactions so far this year were
signed by Rekhet (1,060 sq.m., Den Tir Antwerp), by JBC (825 sq.m. in K in Kortrijk), and by Bel & Bo (710
sq.m. in Ring Shopping Kortrijk). 47 % of the take-up was recorded in shopping centres in Flanders, 27% in
the Walloon Region and 24% in Brussels.
Retail Warehousing
71,600 sq.m. were taken up in retail warehousing
in Q1 2016, rising to 99,000 sq.m. as at midMay. The volume at mid-May equals 48% of the
total volume of the market segment last year,
which was the highest volume of the last four
years. The major part representing 76% of the
take-up volume so far this year was recorded in
Flanders, 14% in Wallonia and 4% in Brussels.
Large transactions were recorded in Hasselt,
where Decathlon took 4,000 sq.m., in Mechelen
where Intercarro let 2,785 sq.m. and in KnokkeHeist, where Albert Heijn let 2,365 sq.m. in the
Duinenwater project.
TAKE-UP PER MARKET SEGMENT
sq.m.
400.000
350.000
300.000
250.000
200.000
150.000
100.000
50.000
0
2011
Shopping Centres
2012
High Street
2013
2014
Retail Warehousing
2015
5-yr Ave
“Despite difficult market conditions, take-up is expected to repeat the solid
performance recorded in 2015, thanks to large transaction volumes in retail
warehousing parks.”
WALTER GOOSSENS,
HEAD OF RETAIL AGENCY
4
| pulse | BELGIAN RETAIL MARKET |
www.jll.be
JUNE 2016
Projects
Docks Bruxsel
49,000 sq.m.
Q4 2016
Rive Gauche, Charleroi
35,000 sq.m.
Q1 2017
Kanaalkom, Hasselt
21,700 sq.m.
Est. Q3 2018
Uplace, Machelen
72,000 sq.m.
Est. 2018/2019
SOLID PROJECT PIPELINE IN 2016-2017
115,207 sq.m. were delivered in the first quarter of 2016,
and at mid-May 150,000 sq.m. were completed. The
volume scheduled for delivery in the whole year 2016 is
close to 250,000 sq.m., 39% above the 5-year average of
175,000 sq.m. In addition, over 100,000 sq.m. are under
construction for delivery from 2017 to 2019.
Large projects that were completed recently include
the Ikea megastores in Hasselt (39,000 sq.m.) and
Mons (34,000 sq.m.), and Dok-Noord (16,000 sq.m.), the
redevelopment of the former ACEC-site at the Dampoort in
Ghent. The largest projects to be delivered later this year
are Docks Bruxsel (49,000 sq.m.), the first new shopping
centre to open in Brussels in over 30 years. Also in 2016 a
6,000 sq.m. extension to Les Grands Prés in Mons will be
completed together with a new retail park of 12,000 sq.m.
linked to the shopping centre. Another shopping centre,
Rive Gauche in Charleroi (38,000 sq.m.), is scheduled for
opening in Q1 2017. In Hasselt works started recently on
the mixed redevelopment project Quartier Bleu, which
includes 21,000 sq.m. retail.
Turnova, Turnhout
15,000 sq.m.
Est. Q2 2018
Côté Verre, Namur
23,000 sq.m.
Est. 2019
COMPLETIONS AND FUTURE SUPPLY
2016 will see a high level of completions
300.000
250.000
200.000
sq.m. 150.000
100.000
50.000
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Completions
Future Supply
5-y Average
Two other large new shopping centres are planned in the Brussels area, Uplace in Machelen (72,000 sq.m.) on the
northeastern periphery and the Mall of Europe in the north of Brussels (80,000 sq.m.), part of the redevelopment of
the Heysel platform, which are still in an early stage.
Source all charts : JLL Research 5
| pulse | BELGIAN RETAIL MARKET |
www.jll.be
JUNE 2016
Prime Rents & Investment
PRIME RENTS
High Streets
«Main Six»
STRONG INVESTMENT PIPELINE
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
€/sq.m./year
€/sq.m./year
Brussels
1,850
2,000
Antwerp
1,850
2,000
Ghent
1,550
1,550
Liège
1,200
1,200
Bruges
1,200
1,200
Hasselt
1,100
1,100
Shopping
Centres
Brussels
Antwerp
Retail
Warehousing
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
€/sq.m/year
€/sq.m./year
1,600
1,600
1,600
Q1 2015
1,600
Q1 2016
€/sq.m./year
€/sq.m./year
Brussels
150
185
Antwerp
165
165
The total transacted volume amounted to € 168
million as at mid-May 2016, of which € 113 million
were invested in Q1, a relatively weak quarter, 38%
below the volume recorded in the same quarter last
year and 15% under the 5-year average volume of a
first quarter.
Retail warehousing deals accounted for 57% of the
volume and high street retail took the remaining 43%.
No shopping centre deal was finalised this year so far.
The largest transaction in the year-to-date was
the acquisition by Bimmo NV of the Dansaert Park
(Groot-Bijgaarden), for an estimated € 25 million.
Large transactions in the pipeline include the sale of
three shopping centres: Docks Bruxsel in Brussels,
Médiacité in Liège and K in Kortrijk. We also expect
the sale of the Toison d’Or high street complex in
Brussels uptown, occupied among others by Apple
and Marks & Spencer.
Prime retail yields remained stable this quarter at
3.75% for high street, 4.25% for shopping centres and
5.75% for retail warehousing. On the latter, there is
still compression potential as demand is high, and as
far as high street shops are concerned, “super prime”
locations trade at even lower yields.
PRIME YIELDS
Downward trend persists
“2015 was exceptional both
in terms of volume invested
and yields, and 2016 looks
promising.ˮ
JEAN-PHILIP VRONINKS,
HEAD OF CAPITAL MARKETS
%
7,0
6,5
6,0
5,5
5,0
4,5
4,0
3,5
6,25
5,00
4,25
6,00
5,75
5,00
4,00
4,25
3,75
Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q1
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Shopping Centre
High Street
Retail Warehousing
Source all charts : JLL Research 6
| pulse | BELGIAN RETAIL MARKET |
www.jll.be
JUNE 2016
Top transactions
OCCUPIER MARKET 2016
High Streets
Year
Qtr
City
Address
Type
Sq.m.
Retailer
2016
1
Brussels
Rue Neuve 48-50
Letting
1,800
JD Sports
2016
1
Geraardsbergen
Oudenaardsestraat 35
Letting
1,650
H&M
2016
1
Antwerpen
Kammenstraat
Letting
850
Fish & Chips
Shopping Centres
Year
Qtr
City
Shopping Centre
Type
Sq.m.
Retailer
2016
2
Brussels
Docks Bruxsel
Pre-letting
3,108
Zara*
2016
1
Wijnegem
Wijnegem Shopping
Letting
2,700
C&A
2016
2
Brussels
Docks Bruxsel
Pre-letting
2,000
Kiabi*
Retail Warehousing
Year Qtr
City
Address
Type
Sq.m.
Retailer
2016
1
Hasselt
Kuringensteenweg 491
Letting
4,000
Decathlon
2016
1
Mechelen
Jubellaan 78
Letting
2,800
Intercarro
2016
1
Knokke-Heist
Project Duinenwater
Letting
2,400
Albert Heijn
INVESTMENT MARKET 2016 (as at mid-May)
Price Yield
MEUR
%
Year
Qtr
Type**
City
Building
2016
1
RW
Groot-Bijgaarden
Dansaert Park
25
2016
2
HS
Brussels
Toison d’Or 14-15
(&Other Stories)
2016
1
RW
Deinze
2016
1
HS
2016
2
RW
**RW : retail warehousing
HS : high street
SC : shopping centre
Seller
Buyer
+5
FRI
Bimmo NV
22
-
JV Besix RED &
D. Janne
Group Hayen
D-Shopping
18
5
NV B.Kernretail
Bimmo NV
Brussels
Bd de Waterloo 57
14
3.5
Family Hocedez
Ramy Baron
Sint-GenesiusRode
Retail & kmo-park
13.02
-
Private
Warehouses
Estates Belgium
Transactions in bold were advised by JLL - *:JLL co-agent
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CONTACTS
WALTER GOOSSENS
Head of Retail Leasing Belgium
+32 (0)2 550 25 47
[email protected]
THIERRY DEBOURSE *
Head of Retail Benelux
+32 (0) 2 550 25 78
[email protected]
*SPRL ECML Consulting
ANN VANDERWEGEN
Senior Research Analyst
+32 (0) 2 550 26 81
[email protected]
PIERRE-PAUL VERELST
Head of Research Belux
+32 (0) 2 550 25 04
[email protected]
JEAN-PHILIP VRONINKS *
Head of Capital Markets Belux
+32 (0) 2 550 26 64
[email protected]
*Revron GCV
VINCENT H. QUERTON
CEO Benelux
+32 (0) 2 550 25 25
[email protected]
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