March - What Really Wins Money

March 2012 Volume 8 Issue 03
What Really Wins Money
***** An Independent Review of Tipsters and Betting Systems *****
W
elcome to March’s post Cheltenham Guinness-stained WRWM. The Guinness cans
have been recycled (how dare they put a major
national hunts festival so near to St Patrick’s Day!)
and it’s back to business.
This month’s newsletter has morphed into a bit of
a laying love-in. But hey, it makes money and that’s
the key.
horse races. And he comes to some very interesting
conclusions.
I take a quick look at Matt Houghton’s Goal-den
Formula. It has promise, why? Because its bedrock
is research! And I’ll offer a little idea on how we
can increase potential returns.
We start March with a review of the home-grown
betting systems I introduced you to at the start of
2012. Which ideas are still profiting?
And no WRWM would be complete without the
Patriarch, who wants to get his money back from
Beaten Favourites, and the Cash-Master, who
rounds up the best and worst of the current systems
and tipsters.
And with laying very much on my mind, I argue
that low risk laying systems can allow for high risk
staking plans. The low risk comes from fixing our
liabilities (the amount we’ll lose if a horse we’ve
layed happens to win!). The conclusions are eyeopening, the profits more so.
Enjoy, and don’t forget to recycle your Guinness
cans!
The lay theme continues with a great little lay
system which profits by laying selections priced, on
average, at evens. These selections are actually well
thought of by the Racing Post’s Spotlight Verdict
but lose enough to allow us to profit by laying.
The Statman this month has turned his attentions
towards discovering the truth behind the racing
cliché that we should back the outsider in three-
Inside this issue:
Lay Betting System
Low Liability Allows for High Risk Staking..........3
Betting Strategy
Hard to Beat? Hard to Win, More Like!...............5
The STATMAN Presents
The Outsider of 3..................................................6
Football Betting
Is This the Goalden Formula?...............................8
The Patriarch Presents
How to Profit From Beaten Favourites................9
Reviews
The Cash Master Systems and Tipsters Update...10
And don’t forget folks, that there are videos to
accompany the articles which will immediately take
you through selection systems, staking, and any
other areas where clarification might be sought.
Clive
Clive Keeling,
Editor, What Really Wins Money
Systems Update
An Update on
Home-grown
Systems
I
am going to continue my focus on the homegrown ideas I introduced to you in January’s
WRWM. And in particular I want to focus on the
consistent profit makers.
NAPS 12/13
This is a simple backing system. We back all
horses in the Selection Box at the Racing Post
who have been selected by 12 or 13 of the featured “tipsters”.
It’s simple. It’s effective. It’s unadventurous
please turn over...
though and you’ll not be backing life-changing
priced horses. But you can bet and go and slowly
build up a betting bank.
One hundred and three bets since 24th September 2011 has produced a 77% strike rate and a
12-point profit to level stakes. The average odds
are a measly 1/ 2. I said it was slow! There are not
selections every day. In fact, the last qualifier – as I
write – was on 13th March 2012. There have been a
number of horses selected by 11 of the journalists in
the Selection Box.
Price gapper lays
We are laying to 5% of the betting bank as the
Initial Stake. The price-gapper lay strategy does
require you to follow the live betting market (level
stakes does not, of course).
I have decided to break this down month by
month. To remind you, we look to lay horses who
are “price gappers” in the Betting Forecast.
A very recent example will show you exactly what
I mean by a price gapper:
Reducing the stake to 2.5% of the betting bank, a
profit of £1,150 has accrued so far in March 2012
with the highest stake a manageable £95.
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Sustainability, 6/1
Granville Island.
Now, if you want, you have the option to stop
once £1,000 has been made, take out the profit, and
begin again at £100.
The favourite is 5/4 in the Betting Forecast at the
Racing Post. Next best is 6/1. That’s some price
gap! Sustainability therefore becomes a qualifying
bet.
A current strike rate of 60% and average lay odds
of 2.58 still make this price-gapper lay idea of great
interest.
This price-gapper lay idea is the same one I
recounted to you in previous newsletters, as having
the ability to consistently turn £100 into £1,000 or
more using a rather interesting staking plan called
Lay % Up Down ( I’ll go into greater detail in the
accompanying video) available at www.stakingmachine.com. This consistency is becoming likeable!
The accompanying video will refresh your
memory as regards selection:
www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk/resourcepage
Note this profit is for March only, starting with
a £100 betting bank. £2,400 profit is excellent but
stakes increase markedly, hence the ideal to make
£1,000 then start again.
I feel we should have a high risk element to the
betting portfolio, and this system with accompanying staking plan, and the Novice Hurdle Lay system
with accompanying high risk staking plan, fit the
bill admirably.
And here’s another newbie
You’ve doubtless heard the “urban racing myth”
that we can profit from laying the favourite in the
last race of the day. Well, I thought I’d check it out.
The graph shows you the profit growth for the
Price gapper system for March, where we now place
a cap on horses to lay of 5. I.e. we will lay horses
priced at 5.00 decimal odds, (4/1) but no bigger:
It’s easy, isn’t it? If you follow my directions
in the accompanying video www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk/resourcepage you’ll be able to see
instantly the final race of the day.
It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot be held
responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on this understanding. ISSN: 1741 9018
All subscription correspondence to: What Really Wins Money, Subscription Office, Unit 3, Hainault Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford,
RM6 5NF. Tel: 0208 597 0181 Fax: 0208 597 4040.
Registered office: Canonbury Publishing Ltd. Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ. Registered in England No. 4765425 Vat Reg No.
811 5700 64 © Copyright What Really Wins Money 2012
2
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At www.racingpost.com click on cards:
profit over the long term. These systems are delivering at present.
Lay Betting System
Low Liability Allows
for High Risk Staking
Choose the option to “Order all races by time”.
So far I have recorded 127 bets, with a lay strike
rate of 70% and, using the fixed liability I introduced to you with the novice hurdle article, a
respectable 26-point profit has accrued.
I
introduced you to a lay system idea in February’s
newsletter and I want to look at it in more detail
and also argue for higher risk staking.
I will be monitoring this lay idea. As you can see,
it is simplicity itself to follow. Ideally, though, I
want a year’s worth of results over both the flat and
jumps season.
Why?
It is my contention that higher risk staking and
fixed liability laying can work together. But first,
let’s look at the staking options.
Initially though, there is promise and this is something I want to continue with in following issues
of What Really Wins Money. The ideal would be to
have a number of these rather simplistic betting systems running in tandem and making slow, gradual
profits over the long term.
Lay staking options
There are two-staking options whenever you are
laying on the betting exchanges.
Option 1 (see below) is to look to win a specific
amount of money, also known as fixed stake laying.
In this instance, the liability (the amount paid out if
a horse wins the race) will fluctuate with the change
My aim with these home-grown betting systems
is to give you something which requires no direct
form analysis at all, and which produce a consistent
Option 1
Option 2
3
please turn over...
in odds. The bigger the odds, the more you will
have to pay out if the horse wins.
I have layed Medic Man here, to win £100. Note
the liability (the amount I pay out if he has the
temerity to win the race!) is £500.
Option 2 (see the bottom chart on the previous
page) looks to limit potential losses (liability) to
a specific amount, known as fixed liability laying.
Here, the liability is fixed regardless of the odds of
the horses/teams/players we are laying.
Here, we have limited our payout (liability) to
£100 rather than the £500 above. We are controlling
losses, but naturally have to take reduced winnings
of £20 if the horse loses the race. The arrow below
shows the Liability Box. By clicking that box, we
can insert an amount that is to be our fixed liability
(in this case, of course, £100).
The advantage of using fixed liability laying is
obvious... we can:
1. Lay at all prices safe in the knowledge that we
have already fixed potential losses.
2. We can still make a profit long term with a
decent strike rate lay selection strategy albeit
slower than fixed stake laying.
In this race, there are 2 joint favourites at 13/2, 3
2nd favourites at 7/1 making the “3rd” favourite the
8/1 horse with the star above. At this price I would
include this horse as a qualifier. It is at your discretion. Remember that as this is fixed liability laying,
we can be open about the odds at which we lay.
3. Because we are laying to lose a fixed sum per
lay bet, we can experiment with the staking,
and even consider higher risk staking.
And it is with the latter point that I want to focus
here.
Performance so far
Two hundred and forty one bets so far see a 91.3%
strike rate, which you would expect from a lay
system as it is the equivalent of backing extremely
short-priced horses to win.
So let me return to the novice hurdle lay system
I wrote about last month. To refresh your memory,
we quite simply lay the 3rd favourites in all novice
hurdles races in the UK and Ireland.
Using a level fixed liability amount per bet, for
example £10, has turned a £217 profit, or 21.7
points. For me this is quite acceptable.
Some housekeeping
This is a live market system, because we need to
distinguish the 3rd favourite(s) at the off.
Because we are fixed liability laying, it is my
contention that our staking can become a little
more adventurous. After all, we are laying at prices
from 3/1 to 25/1 yet not risking incrementally more
money the bigger the odds.
There will be co-favourites of three (i.e.three first
favourites) meaning that the “real” 3rd favourite is
the 5th horse in the betting.
There are also occasions where there are joint first
and 2nd favourites. Again the 3rd favourite will be
the 5th horse in the betting.
If you want to keep this strategy simple, then
ignore these potentially niggling races such as the
example shown below from a qualifying novice
hurdle.
Adventurous staking, eh? That can only mean one
thing... variants of loss retrieval.
So let me take you through a staking plan, and see
if you agree with me that this low risk fixed liability
laying deserves higher risk staking.
4
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regards the staking plan featured in this article:
www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk/resourcepage
Staking Plan
P.S. The staking plans I use here are called the
FASTTRACKPLANS, by APC Hadley. He no
longer sells the Fasttrackplans, nor is the website
www.fasttrackplans.com running anymore.
If anyone knows where I can contact Mr Hadley,
then please email me at the usual address. His excel
spreadsheets will add a professionalism to your
money management.
Betting Strategy
Hard to Beat? Hard to
Win, More Like!
Look at that graph and look at the profit – from a
starting fixed liability of only £10, a profit of over
£1,200 has accrued. I go into this staking plan in
detail in the accompanying video:
www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk/resourcepage
W
ith my new staking software to test ideas, I
thought I’d try a new one: taking advantage
of apparent strong favourites, the type of favourites
who are extremely well thought of by the Racing
Post Spotlight writer.
The staking plan I chose here is a “loss recovery”
staking plan, ideally used for backing, but equally
as effective for laying.
And it’s another simple system. Look in Spotlight
Verdict for very confident language. Here are some
real-world examples:
Loss recovery and high strike rate systems should
go together. And any lay system should have a
higher strike rate than any back system (the inference being that it’s far easier to pick a loser in an
eight-runner race, say, than the winner).
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some chance perhaps
that the reigning champion will be a little short of
his peak for this seasonal debut, but it would go
against the grain to oppose HURRICANE FLY.
Bottom line
By using fixed liability laying we have a number
of advantage:
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A golden opportunity for
NOBLE PAGEANT to win a maiden and Irish ones
rarely come weaker than this one.
1. We can lay a horse theoretically at any price
because we control liabilities. We no longer
have to find a way to get favourites beaten!
Third favourites could even suffice!
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Very hard to get away
from TETLAMI (nap).
Look at the words “go against the grain to
oppose”, “a golden opportunity” and “very hard to
get away from”. Confident language from Spotlight
Verdict.
2. Fixed liability laying is low risk, so we can
take a chance with a higher risk staking plan.
As this novice hurdle system has a handsome
strike rate, there are staking plans which produce
admirable profits using traditional fixed stake
laying. This is something I will focus on next
month.
The logic behind this idea was that it could form a
good backing system. After all, we are largely dealing with favourites here, favourites who Spotlight
Verdict is extremely confident about.
As you can see though, simple lay systems and
simple low risk staking produces a good profit. But
these profits can sky rocket with a loss retrieval
staking plan, safe in the knowledge that we are
always in control of our losses.
Eleven 2nd places this month alone attest to a
degree of frustration with this as a backing system.
But, as this newsletter is turning into a laying lovein, why not look at this as a lay system?
Please take a look at the accompanying video as
5
After all, we are dealing with favourites, average
odds of just over evens, and a heck of a lot of oddsplease turn over...
on shots.
The STATMAN Presents
So what’s the “verdict” laying Spotlight Verdict’s
confident selections?
The Outsider of 3
T
his month, Sean Trivass, Statman, investigates
the “racing urban myth” of backing outsiders in
three-runner races.
Well, it’s pretty good.
After 167 bets, using £5 stakes as fixed stake
laying (here we are looking to win £5 rather than
fix our liability because we are largely dealing
with evens or odds-on bets here and so liability is
naturally low), a £100 bank has doubled to £209,
£109 clear profit. Again this is very encouraging,
and there are staking plans which will increase this
return, but I want more bets under my belt.
As we wander innocently in to the time of year
when it all kicks off (Grand National, Turf flat
season, Guineas, Frankel...) I have no end of
choices for what to investigate, and the real beauty
is that I NEVER go in with pre-conceived ideas.
I get given a concept, I look at the mechanics,
record the results, and then we see whether it was or
wasn’t a brilliant idea!
As a racing man of many years, I have been
brought up with numerous racing sayings and have
always felt that they must be founded on some semblance of truth and thus worth further investigation,
and this month I thought we would look at the old
chestnut of backing the outsider in a field of three.
Now before you start shouting “heard it”, you
are correct, it is (or was) a misnomer but with the
advent of the exchanges and better odds I wonder if
that has all changed, or if certain races or distances
sway in or out of our favour?
As I point blank refuse to either make odds up or
add an obligatory percentage, my statistics only go
back to the end of December 2007 but I will use
BETFAIR SP, or its equivalent, to see what pans
out, and then see if we can turn those figures to our
financial and punting advantage.
We started with a negative position, but the value
of hindsight shows you that an eventual profit
ensued laying to win a level stake.
Being totally honest, I expected a small profit
if – and only if – I played around with the statistics
looking for a particular line of thought, but what I
found amazed even me.
Bottom line
Like the price gapper system, this HTB system
is largely discretionary. There is no specific rule
to follow which will ensure everybody selects the
same horse. What I would urge you to do is to
watch the accompanying video and I’ll take you
through real-world examples in the hope you’ll get
a flavour of the types of horses that qualify.
Blindly backing the outsider in a field of three on
the exchanges showed not only a profit but a decent
one at that!
In this month of fixed stake laying and fixed
liability laying systems, I hope I’ve shown you
that laying is a realistic and profitable horse racing
angle. And as the months go by, your confidence in
these lay systems should increase as the profit figure
increases (I hope) month on month.
From a total of 371 bets since 30th December
2007 this simple system, gave us a total of 59 winners (16%) but, thanks to the enhanced odds on the
exchanges,
these showed a level stakes profit of
158.92 points (before commission). That calculates
out to over 40 points a year which I think is pretty
impressive for about the simplest betting strategy I
can possibly imagine.
www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk/resourcepage
Having got the bottom line figure I looked closer
6
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to see if there was any way I could improve the
figures by adding filters such as race distance, race
type, time of year, etc.
What I really like about this is that it seems that
virtually anyone can make a success of it. I get
emails from people from all walks of life - the
system really is that easy to get to grips with.
I came up with precious little that made a massive
difference. Yes, if you filter and ignore some of the
silly prices (anything larger than 30/1), you can add
50 points to the overall total (209.92).
Here’s what some of the members have to say:
‘Since last writing to you, my bank is standing just
short of £4,000 from the original £500 7 weeks ago
and is forecast to surpass that in the next couple of
days. Keep up the good work!’
This could also apply to certain courses, but if
you look carefully at the figures in the attached
tables and acknowledge the limited amount of available data, I would not personally want to risk losing
out on some potentially massive priced options, and
will be backing the outsider of three everywhere
over every distance regardless of the odds from now
on.
Mr. D.T., Grantham
“A year ago, using mainly my profits I bought a
boat, 25ft cabin cruiser... It really is a dream come
true.”
Chris Roberts
For a list of qualifiers for the “Outsider of 3”
system, go to the resource page at:
www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk/resourcepage
“... it’s PROFIT ALL THE WAY once again thank
you for making a difference to my life.”
Stephen
‘...it’s a good feeling to make your target in 10-20
mins, then turn off the computer knowing you have
made what some people earn in 8 hours.’
Publisher Recommends
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following the Pegasus
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Mr. L. C., Middlesbrough
This really is worth looking into even if you are
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No time wasted studying manuals... no listening
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Enough said! Follow this link and take a look for yourself:
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R
acing systems come and go... and often come
back dressed up with a different name.
Highly recommended!
Clive
Tipping services open and fold...
But I’ve given this one my personal thumbs up
since 2006 and continue to rate it very highly today. Clive Keeling
P.S. Here are some more of those testimonials:
Why? Because it’s one of those rare tipping services that consistently delivers.
“I made £25 in my first day - amazing - I’ll be a
member for a long time. Day two - covered my first
month’s subscription already.”
Even the most cynical reviewer has to admit the
figures are nothing short of outstanding! View the
track record in more detail by following this link:
www.pegasusracingresults.com
T.R., Didcot
‘...and I can’t thank you enough for the improvements in my lifestyle that the Pegasus Club has given
me’
I like to keep you up to date with tipping services
that are doing well and Pegasus is one of those that
just keeps performing. 7
Mr. D.R., Leicester
please turn over...
Quite simply, teams who both show a propensity
for over 2.5 goals should be backed (and conversely
teams who shy away from goals regularly can
allow for under 2.5 goals bets). The Formula looks
at recent matches, and importantly at home teams’
home form, and away teams’ away form, as well as
head to heads. All standard research areas. (Please
do take a look at my betting research template at
http://bettinresearchtemplate.blogspot.com for a
more indepth look at football matches, to be used in
conjunction with www.soccerstats.com.
‘I was sceptical at first, but I quickly realised the
potential of this amazing system. I started small,
making about £20 per day in the first 2 weeks, but
now I have built my betting bank to a level that has
enabled me to achieve £100 per day! Thank you once
again.’
Mr. J.C., Hull
Football Betting
Is This the Goalden
Formula?
Staking is simple and potentially effective and
there is a price limit in place.
M
This is a logical and potentially profitable betting
system. The research is basic, but effective. It does
not really account for time of the year (e.g. changes
in personnel post transfer windows, and the relegation/title battles that come March/April time) but
historically, based solely on the top three leagues
in England, the Formula has profited very well, for
example, over £1,100 to £20 stakes since January
2011.
att Houghton’s recent release, the Goalden
Formula caught my attention this month, so
I thought I’d give you the lowdown on the system
and a personalised idea on how to increase the
strike rate.
This manual’s focus is primarily on the goals markets in all football matches, specifically the unders/
overs 2.5 goals markets and the both teams to score
market (the latter I have not really focussed on and
should, as research can readily identify teams which
score and concede regularly).
There is scope for greater profits if we increase
leagues’ coverage. Major European leagues can
be incorporated, as can leagues which are familiar
to you. There’s nothing like a bit of “local knowledge”.
Goals betting is worthy of your attention for
two reasons.
1. Goals bets are what I call “neutral” bets. That
is, we are not betting on either one team or
the other. With “neutral” bets like goal bets,
we have both teams working for us. (Other
neutral bets include the corner market, bookings markets and total goals markets among
others.)
And alternatives...
There was once a website called www.oversandundersbetting.com which sold a superb “formula”
for discovering over and under 2.5 goals bets (this
website is defunct now). Those long-term readers
will recognise one Stephen Brookes? If you have
this manual to hand, then I suggest you dust off
the pdf and get using it. It is close in logic to Matt
Houghton’s Goal-den Formula and was extremely
effective.
2. Goals betting largely has two outcomes. Either
it’s over 2.5 goals or it’s under 2.5 goals.
Simple. And if you do your research then you
can increase your effectiveness at selecting the
right bet.
Any, ahem, lucky readers of my In Play Profit
Generator will have an excellent goals-based strategy which is highly effective and enhanced further
with trading.
The Goal-den Formula’s foundation is its research
and that is a great sign. Regular readers will know
I’ve been harping on about research being the key
to your football success for years.
Now Matt Houghton’s Goal-den Formula is a
“bet and go” strategy and that will suit many, but I
suspect we can increase the strike rate further with
the introduction of trading.
Stats sites such as www.soccerway.com contain
the information for the formula, which is logical
and historically profitable. www.futbol24.com and
www.soccerstats.com are the other two main stalwarts for football researchers.
Any users or potential users of Matt Houghton’s
Goal-den Formula should at the very least consider
the trading angle in locking in profit especially in
8
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scenarios like the ones below.
The Patriarch Presents
I am not saying that we have to rigidly trade all
potential bets. Rather, we should lock in profit when
a profit is apparent as early as half-time, or when we
are on the cusp of a winning bet.
How to Profit From
Beaten Favourites
T
his month I’m going to take a look at a source
of winners that I touched on in a piece back in
November 2010 – beaten favourites. It’s so well
recognised as a potential aid that it has its own letters, BF for beaten favourite after the name of the
horse in every racing page that I’ve ever studied.
The only other letters that share that same honour
are C and D to indicate that a horse has won over
the course (C) or won over the distance (D) of the
present race. If it has both C and D then that is quite
a strong recommendation in itself.
I.e. we have backed over 2.5 goals and it is 1-1
at half-time (Two goals have been scored – the
market reacts by shortening the over 2.5 goals price
because we are 2/3rds of the way there. Traders can
lay off their bet and ensure their stake is returned).
Another example: Let’s say we have backed under
2.5 goals in a match. It’s 0-0 at half-time. We can
trade out for a marginal profit as early as half-time.
Similarly if we’ve backed under 2.5 goals, and it’s
1-1 coming to the 80th minute. A goal will end the
“bet and go” bet. A trade will lock in a large chunk
of profit, safe in the knowledge that we will not lose
care of a late-late goal.
Bottom line
Matt Houghton’s Goal-den Formula will work
long term, I am convinced, because its foundation is
simple: RESEARCH.
Indeed, many years ago there was a system on
the market called The Four (or Five) Letter System,
depending on which daily paper you were using.
Let me explain. Then, and still today, some papers
use the letter F to indicate a horse is fancied by
the stable. Others use the letters SF to show it
is strongly fancied. So, the Four Letter System
required a horse to be a beaten favourite (BF) and a
course and distance winner (CD) – that is a distance
winner at the present course – or C and D, a course
winner and a distance winner at some other course.
It also had to be fancied (F). So, the four letters
were B, F, C and D. For the five letters we had to
add on the S for the strongly in strongly fancied.
There you had it. Four or five letters following the
horse’s name, couldn’t be simpler, and it produced
lots and lots of winners. I imagine it will still do so
today.
And any strategy based on sound, logical research
will have longevity and the strike rate that ensures a
long-term gain.
I offer a great goals-based research strategy in my
In play Profit Generator e-book. It is akin to Matt
Houghton’s Goal-den Formula in its methodology.
And note. If you want to increase potential strike
rate, consider trading to lock in profit when you are
on the cusp of a winning goals bet ( on in play football matches only at www.betfair.com).
An afterthought...
Why not try some “rules” of your own for over
2.5 /under 2.5 goals betting? Visit www.soccerstats.
com which has immediately calculated season-long
over/under 2.5 goals percentages. www.soccerstats.
com also shows you recent over 2.5/under 2.5 goal
sequences, as well as a timetable when goals have
been scored. Have some fun! And keep records of
your selection method and profit/loss.
The Goal-den Formula is available at http://www.
bettingrant.co.uk/goal-den-formula
Fire in Babylon, in the above race, is a course
winner (C) and a beaten favourite (BF). Gower
Rules is a course and distance winner (CD).
9
But I want to look at beaten favourites in rather
more detail. Two questions concern me. What
made them favourite for that race, and how, and
why, were they beaten? To have been made favouplease turn over...
rite they must have shown some degree of form or
ability, and they must have attracted betting money
from somewhere – the owner, the stable or the
public.
rowly beaten? If any of these things happened then
it would be fair to say that it’s worth giving that
beaten favourite another chance – as long as all the
other requirements mentioned earlier are fulfilled.
If that lost money came from the owner or stable
it would seem natural that if they still considered
the horse good enough then they would try and
recoup that money as soon as possible while the
horse still retained its form. Therefore, rule number
one in considering a beaten favourite is – look out
for a beaten favourite that is returning to the racecourse fairly soon after being beaten, let’s say not
more than a fortnight later.
If your viewing of the race shows the beaten
favourite to have lacked resolution in the final
furlong then avoid it. If it has shown a lack of pace
throughout, or has run without any kind of enthusiasm, then again, leave it alone. A careful viewing
can reveal a lot.
If you are not able to view that previous race
then you’ll have to rely on the written word in the
Form Book that describes the performance of each
horse in it. The words or phrases that we are looking for in support of our beaten favourite would
be – unlucky in running, baulked or hindered, or
impeded or checked, not clear run, boxed in, finished strongly, better for the run, ran on, ran on
strongly, fitter next time. Any comment along those
lines would give you encouragement to support that
beaten favourite in its present race.
Rule number two. Make sure that the present race
is not a higher class race than the last one in which
it was beaten. Ideally, the present race should be
lower in class. If the trainer knows what he’s doing
then that should be already taken care of. The next
thing I’d be looking for would be that my beaten
favourite had won a race sometime in its career. If it
happened to be over the present course or distance,
then so much the better. (Remember the Four or
Five Letter System mentioned earlier.) I’ve noticed
a horse running on the All Weather this winter that
has been a beaten favourite on four successive occasions, and each time finished second. That looks to
me like a horse that doesn’t know how to win, and
probably never will – one to be avoided at all costs.
My final requirement at this stage would be that the
beaten favourite can handle today’s going. A quick
look through its previous races should soon show
what going it likes or dislikes. We now move on to
the next stage.
The comments you don’t want to see and which
would put you off backing a beaten favourite would
include – ridden over one furlong out, no impression, soon weakened, beaten over a furlong out, no
extra at the distance, soon beaten, never nearer to
challenge – and any other comment that suggests
the horse is not putting everything into its racing,
that it lacks the spirit for a battle. If you take all of
this advice into account then you should be left with
beaten favourites that will give you a good run for
your money.
Please do take a look at the accompanying video
which will take you through all of the elements of
the above article: www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk/
resourcepage
What follows now applies mainly to flat racing.
NH racing will require a slightly different approach.
Since there are so many beaten favourites to be
looked at we have to be ruthless in weeding out
the weak ones. It is worth remembering that they
appear in about 67% of all races. Favourites, historically, win around 33% of races so beaten favourites
constitute the remaining 67%. Therefore, we must
examine closely the last race in which the favourite was beaten. Ideally, make use of the sites like
Attheraces, Racing Post or Sporting Life which
show video replays of all races. Pay close attention
to how the favourite ran. Was it unlucky? Was it
hampered or baulked at a crucial stage of the race?
Did anything else happen to affect its chances? In
a sprint, was it slowly away? Did it get boxed in
on the rails? Did it finish strongly and was nar-
Reviews
The Cash Master
Systems and
Tipsters Update
I
’ve found a couple of gems for you this month
with an excellent cricket tipping service that
makes good profits on the side markets plus a
very profitable football service. I’ve also got some
updates on services continuing to perform well and,
10
For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.whatbizopp.com
of course, reviews on services that just don’t live up
to their claims.
nature of this sport, it’s played around the world in
different time zones so to take full advantage of this
service you need to be able to access your emails
“out of hours” so to speak.
All current system tests and all past reviews can
be found on the blog here:
Most of us have smartphones these days so that
shouldn’t be a problem, especially as you can place
your bets with them too!
http://www.cash-master.com/blog
Cricket Tipster
This is a great value service (£7 for the first
month!) and does deliver what it promises, which is
a consistent profit for not much effort. A good strike
rate, good customer service and good profits, I have
no option other than to give this a big thumbs up
from me.
This, as the name suggests, is a tipping service
for cricket. You don’t need to know anything about
cricket to be able to use the service as the emails are
very clear about what you need to bet on. Obviously, if you do have an interest in cricket then this
service can give you that little bit extra, as you’ll
have some money riding on the game.
You can try Cricket Tipster for £7 here:
The tipster, Anth, concentrates on side markets
within cricket as they frequently contain big value
bets and the results are very encouraging. When
I started my test of this service, it had apparently
made 100 points in 2011 already, up to the beginning of December.
http://www.crickettipster.com
Bet Mentor
I recorded the results of this service for just over a
month and am now ready to give my overall opinion.
This is a superb result considering there are only a
few bets each week.
Over the test period a £10 Level Stakes approach
made a profit of £16.08 and a Recovery Bank
approach made a profit of £37.08. I did not find
the profit level nor the strike rate to be as good as
advertised on the sales page but I do also have some
other worries about this service.
The e-mails are short and to the point. This is a
typical example:
Hi Everyone
PAKISTAN V ENGLAND 3RD T20 INT 4.00 PM
GMT 27/2/12
Not long after we started the trial an advanced
staking method to complement the tips was offered
at an additional cost, I do feel that the recovery
methods used within that plan are very aggressive
when you consider that you are nearly always dealing with odds-on prices. A quick sum showed that if
you had a run of three losers at odds of around 1.7
then you would very quickly find yourself staking
over £300 to win £10 overall (once lost stakes were
recovered). Also included in the staking plan pdf
were details of how to open and run accounts with
smaller Asian bookmakers and offers were made
for the service to get involved in the opening and
running of these accounts. Whilst I obviously do not
cast any doubt on the honesty of the people behind
Bet Mentor, I would never advise anyone to allow
any third party to be involved in opening or running any account on your behalf. It is fraught with
dangers.
5 PTS ENGLAND (STAN JAMES 4/5)
3 PTS KEVIN PIETERSEN OVER 25.5 RUNS (5/6
LADBROKES)
YOURS IN SPORT
ANTH
On to the results of my test: I have used the
service for the three months of December, January
and February and am pleased to report a profit of 52
points, which is a very healthy £520 at £10 bets, or
£1300 for £25 stakes.
This is definitely one I shall continue to use as it
requires very little input, just a few minutes to place
your bets, and provides an excellent return.
My one criticism of this service is that sometimes
the tips come at short notice. You may get an email
at around 8pm for a match due to start that night
or in the early hours somewhere in the world, but
I guess that’s no different to getting horse tips in
the morning for races in the afternoon. That’s the
11
There were also several emails containing a “Job
Offer” whereby you would be taken on as an agent
(after a trial period during which you were basically using an odds-to service) to help the service
please turn over...
place large bets. Again, no aspersions are cast on
Bet Mentor, but I would be extremely wary of such
offers.
minutes before the game starts. It’s very straightforward and takes a maximum of five minutes per
game to find the selection.
When it comes to the actual performance of the
tips I can say that it did make a profit at level stakes
but did not cover its modest purchase price. I did
not achieve the Return On Investment levels advertised on the sales page and the strike rate was significantly less too, although it is not all that straightforward to calculate a strike rate when dealing with
Asian Handicaps. This is tricky because you are not
always dealing with a straight win/lose outcome,
you may have a partial win, a partial loss or a push
scenario where your stake is returned and it is up for
debate as to what constitutes a positive outcome for
a strike rate.
There are games most days, and I placed bets of
£10 on every selection.
Between 1st December and 22nd February it produced a profit of £327.70.
The support is excellent and any questions I had
were answered promptly, and at a cost of £67.77
that still produces a net profit of £259.93.
I have happily added this to my portfolio.
You can get Scoring for Profit here:
http://www.scoringforprofit.co.uk
Racing Winners
I’m a little up in the air about where to file this
service. It has made a profit so should be a candidate for Approved even though it didn’t cover its
purchase price as it’s a one-off charge for a year’s
worth of tips and it never really dipped into negative
territory but given that it never got near the results
level claimed and my concerns about the extra parts
of the service (in particular the aggressive staking
plan), I’m not going to approve it. My own feeling is that Neutral is probably the most fair rating,
although I’m closer to a Fail than an Approved.
Racing Winners is a backing system. It is designed
to compare the strengths and weaknesses of the top
few horses in particular races. It is a rating-based
system, and you basically back the horse with the
highest rating. The rules are that you only bet a
maximum of two bets per day. There is no reason
why you couldn’t bet more, but looking at two
races per day seems to be a happy medium between
spending time finding selections and having enough
races to bet on. The selection process used to take
between 30 – 40 minutes per day, and pretty soon
you could get quite quick at finding the selections.
I won’t be signing up to continue receiving the
tips and I wouldn’t be too enthusiastic about advising anyone to join either, so it’s an odd rating of
Low NEUTRAL for me. Somewhere between Neutral and Fail.
During our trial of this system we started off with
a £1000 bank, and we actually made 154% profit,
which increased our bank to an amazing £2,544.
In September 2011 Mark reduced the main selection filters from five to three, as the process was
taking too long for many people, and this seems
to have cut down on the time from 30 to between
15 and 20 minutes, and has still given a pretty
decent return of nearly 30% for the past 5 and a 1/2
months.
I admitted before the trial started that I’m not
a fan of Asian Handicap betting and I’m still not
convinced they’re a good idea long-term. I do fully
acknowledge that many people like them but I just
feel it’s tough enough to show long-term profit
when betting on football without giving the opposition a head start and still betting odds-on.
Having a good system is important obviously,
but so is good after-sales support. Mark Boyle (the
author) provided great support during this trial,
answering questions very promptly and with quality
of content.
You can join Bet Mentor here:
http://www.betmentor.com
Scoring for Profit
I love the game of football and always keep a look
out for any systems, so I was intrigued by Scoring
for Profit by Gary Fonzy.
Gary won the Betfair World Cup 2010 forum
competition using this system. The system uses
games shown on TV and you place your bets 30
Racing Winners is actually a gem of a system, and
I highly recommend it.
You can get Racing Winners here:
http://www.racing-winners.co.uk
12
For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.whatbizopp.com
I only ran this trial for 37 days because I believe
I have enough evidence to call this. In total we
had 177 bets and of these 132 were winning bets
where the horse lost. This generated a profit of only
£12.40.
Bet4mula – Update
This, you may recall, is a service where Paul
advises selections that are suggested by a computer
program. His program carries no bias or opinion,
and are a pure mathematical entity that suggest
value selections on which to place bets.
The main issue is the strike rate of 74.58% when
coupled with average odds of 4.83. To explain:
Of course, you do not get a copy of this computer
program, the selections link is emailed to your
inbox daily and in good time for you to peruse the
market – generally between 8 and 9 in the morning.
The selections instruction is clear and advises how
many points to place, bet type (win/each way) and
away you go using your preferred BOG bookie.
Out of 100 races, you will get 74.58 wining bets
At £10 per bet, this is £717 profit after deducting
5% commission.
You will also get 25.42 losing bets.
The odds for each losing bet are 4.83.
According to the Betfan website where all the
system results are published – this particular tipping service appears to have only been running
since October and its results were showing a profit
of 186 points which, I am sure you will agree is
pretty exceptional – this figure-given a significant
boost during December (133 of these points were
achieved from 23rd November when the system
fillers were changed slightly, so it would appear the
tweaks are working in its favour).
So at £10 per bet you lose 25.42 * (4.83 – 1) * 10,
which is £973.
So, at these odds and with this strike rate, this has
to lose long term.
However, before we consign this to the bin, let’s
look to see if there are any days where betting is
particularly poor.
Profit
Tuesday
£122.50
Monday
During our trial up to the end of December we
made a total of 143.52 points profit. Quite some
achievement!
Wednesday
£16.20
£50.90
Thursday-£65.90
However, the results this year (2012) have been
equally as impressive.
Friday
£79.10
Saturday-£171.50
Here’s the breakdown:
Sunday-£18.90
January: -31.06 points
Grand Total
February: +190.38 points
£12.40
Fairly obvious that Saturdays have been poor.
Two caveats: 1) this analysis is on 200 races and is
a statistically (very) poor sample on which to base
any conclusions, you’d need a year’s worth of data
really; 2) this is for the final weeks of the jumps
season, I don’t know, and nor will I be monitoring,
whether this angle will continue through the flat
season.
March (so far): +304 points!
If you’re not using this service already then you
should seriously consider adding it to your portfolio:
http://www.bet4mula.co.uk
The Laying Game
Removing Saturdays from the data the total profit
becomes £284, however, the strike rate remains at
76.81% and the average odds are 4.69, and this still
is not a recipe for long-term success.
I have been looking at The Laying Game, a
selection bot which sells for £39.99. This is simple
enough, download and install the software, get a
key (which lasts for 12 months). Press “Scan”, wait
a minute and bet on the selections.
I used BSP for the odds and £10 stakes. I used the
rule from the website and filter selections with odds
above 10.
Day
Odds Range Number of Bets Profit
< 2.0
13
-£14.20
3 to 3.99
37
-£3.20
2 to 2.99
13
25
£76.40
please turn over...
4 to 4.99
30
6 to 6.99
13
5 to 5.99
7 to 7.99
8 to 8.99
9 to 9.99
£60.60
28
-£230.50
11
-£113.20
9
£85.50
10
It clearly states in the e-book that the system
targets favourites at certain tracks. While I cannot
see it specifically stated in the book, from studying
the sales page and the video, it seems clear that bets
are placed on the unnamed favourite at SP. Given
the volatility of this market this is probably the best
approach, as placing a bet about a minute before the
off on the trap with the shortest odds will not guarantee that this will be the favourite at the off.
£56.00
£95.00
So if we apply a maximum odds filter of 4.99 the
total profit becomes £119, the strike rate 70.48%
and the average odds are 3.29.
Staking is not a simple Martingale or Fibonacci
progression, though it does resemble one of these.
The progression is fairly short and it is claimed
that a winner will be found 85% of the time. On
those occasions that a winner is not found within
the sequence, the bank will take a fairly substantial
hit, but according to the e-book this should not be
anything from which it cannot quickly recover. I do
have some serious reservations about this, however.
From the above, 15% of the time around 33% of the
bank will be lost. The first stake in the sequence is
more than one point and assuming most greyhound
favourites have an SP of 3.5 or less, then the other
85% of the time it seems that a profit of only 3.5%
of the bank, or less, will be achieved.
(70.48 * 10 * 0.95) less (29.52 * 10 * (3.29 – 1))
= -£6.44
So long term this odds filter brings you to break
even!
Removing Saturdays too the total profit becomes
£220, the strike rate 74.12% and the average odds
are 3.25. We finally get a profit figure of £121, so
this will generate long-term success.
In conclusion then, the data collected suggests
that this system cannot generate long-term success
and therefore has to be categorised as FAILED. I
have shown a possible route to long-term success,
but this is based on only a few samples and contains little flat data; therefore this analysis cannot be
applied to the data with any degree of confidence.
The sales page claims to show full P&L, but what
I found was a video covering 25 days in considerable detail. I don’t have the expertise to know
whether this could be faked, but I’d think it would
be extremely unlikely. The problem I have with the
video is that I’ve no way of knowing if the 25 days
were representative or cherry-picked.
You can try The Laying Game here:
http://www.racinghorsesoftware.com/cmlayinggame.htm
Russell Gibbs
The e-book is 46 pages and reasonably well
written. However, there are one or two typos and
(unless I’ve totally misunderstood) there are frequent references to “meeting” which doesn’t make
any sense, but replace “meeting” with “race” and
it does make sense. This threw me at first as it
happens repeatedly, but when the penny dropped,
it made sense. That said, overall the e-book is
straightforward and easy to understand. The process
is explained once briefly and then again in more
detail. I found this repetition useful as it clarified
certain points.
Despite the poor racing over February, Russell
Gibbs managed 13-points profit on the back bets,
£130 to £10 stakes, and £490 on the lay bets to £100
fixed liabilities at BSP. This service has yet to have
a losing month!
You can join Russell Gibbs here:
http://www.russellgibbs.net
Greyhound Betting System
Betting systems that target anything other than
horse racing or football are already in the minority,
but what sets this apart from other greyhound racing
systems is that it uses progressive staking. A few
horse racing systems use progressive staking, are
very successful and have stood the test of time, but
this is the first time I’ve seen this approach applied
to dog racing.
14
With a quick scan and then a more thorough read,
the system appears very easy to follow, as claimed.
An amazing 300% increase in the bank every 25
days is also claimed and that was certainly borne
out by the video. How easily and how often this
can be replicated remains to be seen, but I’d happily settle for 100% every 25 days – and as previ-
For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.whatbizopp.com
ously mentioned, until I have seen the proof, I have
reservations.
apparent just what is being claimed. Market liquidity would not permit it, but if it did, starting with a
£100 bank and using a rolling bank as prescribed
in the e-book, in 175 days (just under six months)
the bank would stand at £1,638,400. I haven’t made
a typo, that is more than one million, six hundred
thousand pounds in six months! A few months after
that and the bank would be worth more than some
small countries. Also, on day 175 the last bet in a
sequence would be over £270,000. This is roughly
the total amount matched on Betfair – where liquidity is transparent – for every runner in 10 (greyhound) races.
Using a £100 betting bank, on Day 1 I lost 33.5%
of the bank. Day 2 gave £2 profit. Day 3 another
£22.90 loss (over 50% of bank now gone). Day 4
£4.56 profit.
Since then I have run three sequences. The first
went to the end of the sequence before a winner was
found, but the odds were low: barely breaking even.
The next produced a winner in the first race, again
at low odds: producing a small profit. Then disaster
struck... again! The third sequence was a loser and
had I been using level stakes my bank and I would
have parted company. In fairness, a rolling bank is
used, staking to a fixed percentage of the outstanding bank. Even so, nearly 70% of the bank has gone
in just a few days.
Moving on, there is a tab on the sales page
labelled “Full P&L”. Seeing that, I expected to be
taken to a spreadsheet (or something similar) showing several months’ figures, at least. I also expect
it to be reasonably up to date. What shows on the
“Full P&L” page is a sequence of 25 pages in date
order, apparently grabbed from a Bet365 account’s
results pages. My concern here is that, as they cover
only 25 days seven months ago, are these results
representative or could they have been cherrypicked?
Mainly in view of the above, but for other reasons
as well, I have decided that it is time to call a halt to
this trial.
At the start of the blog, I put my concerns to one
side so that I could conduct a fair test. However, I
feel that I should now air some of those concerns:
While looking at these results, something struck
me as odd. This is a system that uses progressive staking and the e-book is quite clear that bets
should be placed on the best track each day, as
defined by their stats. On that basis, I should see
a clear progression in the size of the stakes, until
there is a win or the progression ends with a loss.
The progression should then restart with the stakes
adjusted to the new bank. There are a reasonable
number of pages where I can see no clear progression. From what I can see, it appears to me as if
two sequences are often being run in parallel and
sometimes three. Assuming this is so and one bank
is being used, this is extremely dangerous. It is not a
case of if there will be two or three losing sequences
side by side, but when. When that happens with
two sequences 70% of the bank will be gone. With
three sequences, the entire bank would be gone. An
alternative explanation is that two or more banks
are being used. If that is the case, the bank has not
increased from £100 to £400, but from £200, or
£300 to £400.
The sales page goes to some lengths to point out
that if I have previously bought a system or service I have been lied to, conned, cheated, etc. The
problem with this – other than that it is often true
– is that it is a sales technique used by most dodgy
system sellers and by a fair percentage of honest
ones, too. That warned me to be on my guard, but
doesn’t prove anything. It also states on the same
page that results are fully verified, but apart from a
short video apparently showing someone genuinely
logging into their Bet365 account, I cannot see
where or by whom the results have been verified.
The sales page also informed me that the system
quadrupled the bank during the 25 days recorded on
the results page and then projected that forward as
if it is achievable every month. If something sounds
too good to be true, probably it is too good to be
true. I suppose if it’s said quickly, quadrupling the
bank in 25 days doesn’t sound that astounding? But
for me a claimed 300% increase in the bank in less
than a month, when a lot of people would be happy
with 10%, is dubious.
To project that forward, as if it is what should
be expected every month, is very hard for me to
swallow. However, it was only when I projected
the figures forward to six months that it became
Finally, when my bank started looking very sick
I did some quick mental arithmetic and from that it
looked like there was no way this system could produce a profit. I later went back and did some more
15
please turn over...
thorough calculations: I used the strike rate they
quote; from their stats I assumed that on average the
winner comes in the third race of a sequence (it’s
probably just before that); I also assumed average
SP odds of 3.00 for winning favourites. Based on
this, over 100 sequences the amount staked would
comfortably exceed the winnings.
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I recommend that this is filed firmly under
FAILED.
I
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your own part-time online home business – WHATEVER your Internet or technical knowledge – you
probably wouldn’t believe me...
But then I couldn’t really blame you!
It’s so hard to know who to believe these days...
there are THOUSANDS of “make money online”
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you supposed to know which ones will actually
work and which ones will swallow your cash and
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This has bothered me for a long time... the fact
that there’s no one out there who is prepared to tell
you straight-up what really makes money online.
So I decided to do something about it...
You can get Greyhound Betting System here:
http://www.greyhoundbettingsystem.com
Beaumonts Bets
February is always a difficult month for racing,
what with meetings abandoned, frost and difficult
racing conditions all round.
Still, despite all that, Paul managed a pretty
impressive 45-points profit on the Beaumonts Bets
service for the month.
As always, that’s using an 80-point bank, so that
equates to a 56% increase in the bank in one month.
Now, some people may say that Beaumonts
Bets is a lot of effort. It’s far too much work to be
making a few points profit a day. But look at it this
way.
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A couple of weeks ago Paul moved to Lanzarote.
All he has to do is get up by 10am, probably a bit
earlier to get some breakfast, then spend a couple
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laptop. Interspersed with tea breaks of course, it’s
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“I’ve read, watched and listened to many courses,
books etc on the subject over the years, and yours,
without doubt, makes it easier to understand than
any other... It really gives me the belief that after a
lot of years trying to make a living online that it can
be done.” – Grant
Two hours later, he sets up his bot to place the lay
bets in the afternoon and then thinks about what
he’s going to do for the rest of the day.
Lunch at the beach? A nice stroll round the island?
A bike ride? Take a boat to another island?
Doesn’t matter. The point is, he makes more
money doing this in two hours a day than the vast
majority of people make in the UK working 40
hours a week. And it’s tax free too.
Is that too much effort?
You decide.
http://www.beaumontsbets.com
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16