Pre-Session Reading Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile
Transcription
Pre-Session Reading Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile
Pre-Session Reading Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision RETAIL MARKETING FOR GROWTH AND PROFITABILITY Jay W. Coakley President Coakley Strategic Solutions LLC Jefferson City, Missouri [email protected] 573-462-6260 August 11 & 12, 2016 N9-208-029 SEPTEMBER 14, 2007 DENNIS CAMPBELL F. ASÍS MARTÍNEZ-JEREZ PETER TUFANO EMILY MCCLINTOCK EKINS Central Bank: The ChexSystems QualiFile® Decision SM Jay Coakley let out a slow breath as he glanced over the numbers in Central Bancompany’s latest report. In spite of an aggressive marketing campaign aimed at signing up new customers and opening more accounts, it appeared that growth at the bank hadn’t budged in 2004. How was this possible? Coakley thought. If we don’t attract customers to the basic checking account, we’ll never establish the kind of lasting relationships we need for long-term growth in other areas. As Senior Vice President and Director of Marketing at the bank, he had a vested interest in finding out what had gone wrong. Coakley slipped on his reading glasses and took a closer look at the statistics. When he reached the section on risk assessment, Coakley did a double-take. On average, he saw, 20% of checking account applicants had been turned down as a result of the bank's risk policies. That meant that the bank’s affiliates had lost as many as 7,000 potential customers over the course of the year. If the risk calculations were overly conservative and even half of these customers could be retrieved, the bank would have no problem meeting its elusive growth targets. Coakley quickly rummaged through his desk, looking for some promotional materials he had been given earlier that week. ChexSystems, the Minneapolis-based debit bureau, was offering a new product called QualiFile that claimed to produce a finer segmentation of customers according to risk. Coakley knew that purchasing the product would be a financially significant decision, and if the bank bought it, he would have to decide how to use it. But if QualiFile could deliver on its promise, his customer acquisition headaches might be over. A solid year of growth at the bank might even help make up for the insult of the previous weekend, when Coakley had seen his beloved football team, the Indianapolis Colts, lose in the playoffs to the New England Patriots. History of Central Bancompany Central Bancompany had started out in 1902 as private bank serving customers in Jefferson City, Missouri. Early on, the bank—then known as the Central Missouri Trust Company—had been led by Sam Baker Cook, a former Missouri Secretary of State. By 2004, the holding company had acquired 13 affiliates and a trust company throughout the states of Missouri and Oklahoma. It had remained in ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Professors Dennis Campbell, F. Asís Martínez-Jerez and Peter Tufano and Research Associate Emily McClintock Ekins prepared this case. HBS cases are developed solely as the basis for class discussion. Cases are not intended to serve as endorsements, sources of primary data, or illustrations of effective or ineffective management. Copyright © 2007 President and Fellows of Harvard College. To order copies or request permission to reproduce materials, call 1-800-545-7685, write Harvard Business School Publishing, Boston, MA 02163, or go to http://www.hbsp.harvard.edu. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without the permission of Harvard Business School. 208-029 Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision private hands, with the Cook family maintaining leadership through four generations and retaining ownership of much of the stock held by the company’s shareholders. Connection with local communities had been a guiding principle of the bank for over a century. Whenever it acquired a new affiliate, Central encouraged the new member to retain its original name, board, employees, and overall local identity. It also gave the affiliates a large measure of autonomy in decision-making. The banks chose whom to hire and fire, where to close or open branches, and, most importantly, which customers merited a particular product.1 Because local bank employees were expected to know many of their clients personally, the company believed that they were in a better position to decide who should open a checking account or receive a mortgage than the central office. The parent company, led by co-chairmen Robert Robuck and CEO Bryan Cook, oversaw those functions that were characteristic of a corporate center or for which economies of scale or scope justified centralized management. Thus, corporate strategy, including the acquisition of new affiliates; legal work; and internal audits were carried out by the holding company. The central office was also responsible for asset and liability management, information technology, group marketing, and, though the affiliates had the final say in loan approvals, for the group-wide system of credit risk assessment. Additionally, in 2001, management decided to standardize some practices across the entire Central Bancompany family—for instance, by allowing the central office to define product suites and product characteristics such as pricing guidelines and overdraft policies—though the final decision for these issues, as with loan approvals, was left to the local member banks. Cook explained the company’s strategic balance between small-bank style and large-bank capabilities this way: The theory that we go on is that a lot of the smaller community banks offer pretty good service, but they don’t really have the capacity, the money, and oftentimes they don’t really have the capabilities of top management. You go to the large banks and they are able to offer sophistication of management, the technology, those types of things. But they sometimes forget customer service. We, I think, are able to bring both together.2 Along with smaller community banks such as Exchange National Bank and Premier Bank, Central Bancompany, with 4% of total bank branches in Missouri and 5.5% ($5.9 billion) of total deposits, had to compete with financial giants such as Bank of America and large regional competitors such as Commerce Bank and United Missouri Bank (UNB). In spite of the heavyweight competition, however, in 2004 Central achieved a return on equity of 11.3% against an industry average of 12.6% (See Exhibit 1 for a summary financial report). The Challenge of Growth As the banking industry had grown increasingly competitive in the last 20 years, profit margins for banks had narrowed. Net interest margin, a traditional source of bank profit, had been eroded by sustained low interest rates and intense competition (Exhibit 2). In this economic environment, banks turned to new avenues for profit such as increasing fee revenue and improving efficiency through growth (Exhibit 3). 1 Vanderwerf, Martin. “First National Banker is a Hard Charger with a Soft Touch. The Successful strategy of S. Bryan Cook is simple: Be accessible, build relationships and invest in the community,” St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 11 March 2005. 2 Vanderwerf. 2 Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision 208-029 The new course led to drastic changes in the competitive landscape. Relaxed federal regulations led many banks to attempt growth through combination, resulting in a wave of mergers and acquisitions. Nationwide, the number of FDIC-insured commercial banks fell from 14,496 in 1984 to 7,630 in 2004.3 Changes in marketing strategies mirrored the dynamics of the takeover-driven market. Rather than waiting for clients’ needs to drive them to a branch, banks had begun to aggressively court new customers. Central Bancompany saw these trends alter its competitive landscape significantly over the years. In the bank’s home state of Missouri, the number of financial institutions fell 54% between 1984 and 2004, from 722 to 338.4 Central responded by pursuing careful acquisitions of smaller local banks. By 2004 its affiliates included branches in Oklahoma as well as in Missouri, and CEO Cook had set his sights on future growth in “contiguous states.”5 At the same time, the bank was trying to grow organically by broadening its customer base in current branches. However, Central remained a moderately sized regional institution. And as larger and more powerful banks swallowed smaller banks in surrounding areas, the fight for market share was growing more and more difficult. According to Coakley’s latest report, the bank was successfully attracting new customers, but the volume of new accounts was not large enough to satisfy Central’s growth goals: Convincing individuals to change banks is very expensive, so a retail bank like Central can’t try to grow by stealing competitors’ clients. Instead, we capture individuals in a period of life transition—people who are moving, getting married, starting a new job, or buying a home. Our marketing dollars have to aim to capture the attention of those customers and bring them into the branch. Each year, we lose 30,000 customer accounts, about 20,000 of which are due to transition and 10,000 to excessive overdrafts or account mismanagement, but we also sell 35,000 new accounts. If we wanted to increase our 170,000 checking accounts by 5% we would need to sell 3,500 more accounts. If half of the 7,000 applications we reject every year are actually viable customers, we can easily achieve our target. But we have to find out who those customers are. Coakley’s thoughts pointed to two remedies: either the bank could redirect its marketing campaigns so as to attract customers with more dependable records, or the bank could reevaluate its denial decisions. With a finer segmentation of the large group of denied customers, the bank might be able to salvage some clients who initially seemed too risky or unattractive and find ways to serve them profitably. Coakley, who regularly taught at the University of Wisconsin’s Graduate School of Banking and was a regular attendee of professional conferences approached the problems he encountered at the bank with a slightly different mindset than many of his colleagues. In particular Coakley believed it was unwise to make blanket assumptions about all customers with a bad credit history. As a case in point, he thought about his neighbor, Larry.6 Larry had long held a six-figure middle-management 3 FDIC Statistics At a Glance, “Historical Trends,” http://www.fdic.gov/bank/statistical/stats/2007Jun/FDIC.pdf (accessed August 23, 2007). 4 Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Reports of Condition and Income for all Insured U.S. Commercial Banks, “Commercial Banks in Missouri,” accessed through the Reserve Bank of St. Louis website. 5 Vanderwerf. 6 Disguised name. 3 208-029 Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision position, but when he lost his job following the firm’s IPO (initial public offering), he struggled to keep up with his previous lifestyle. Coakley reflected on Larry’s situation: Because options in the region were limited for someone with Larry’s expertise, it took him more than a year to find a similar position—and by that time, he had lost his house and filed for bankruptcy. But as soon as he found a new job, he was back in business. He was stuck in a bad situation temporarily, but he wasn’t a bad customer. Knowing Larry made me realize that some of the people we were turning down might be potentially valuable clients. The Economics of a Checking Account To help grow the bank, Coakley wanted to focus its marketing efforts on customers who needed a checking account. Checking accounts were a baseline product that helped establish a relationship with customers and led to future purchases of credit products, car loans, or mortgages, all three of which were major sources of profit for the bank. In essence, Coakley explained, the checking account was a loyalty-generating product: On average, capturing a new checking account customer costs us about $100. This cost includes the risk assessment test, the time employees spend processing the transactions, and the allocation of marketing expenses. But over an average tenure of five years, we expect to more than recover these costs through the profitability of the checking account itself and the cross-selling of additional products. Historically, most banks had charged a monthly fee for checking accounts, but increased competition had led many banks, including Central Bancompany affiliates, to offer the standard account for free. The remaining sources of revenue associated with an account were relatively small. In 2004, the average checking account at Central Bancompany generated about $10 in fees linked to transactions such as funds transfers. The bank also earned a spread on deposited funds of about 3% (the average account held $1,000 in deposited funds). Customers who paid for items with a debit card generated an additional average of $30 annually for the bank through interchange fees,7 but only 80% of checking-account clients held a debit card and only 60% used them for retail purchases. Central Bancompany spent about $160 per year to maintain each checking account. This cost included fixed-cost allocations for the brick-and-mortar branch network and call center, IT expenses, and transaction-related costs such as mailing the monthly statement or checking a balance. Because most checking accounts at Central Bancompany were only marginally profitable on their own, their usefulness to the bank lay mainly in their role as a gateway to more profitable lending products. Although Central did not explicitly measure customer profitability, Coakley knew from customer surveys that clients seeking a loan provider were likely to stay with the bank in which they held their checking account. Another source of profit attributed to the checking accounts was a segment of customers that generated substantial overdraft fees. While most customers overdrew their accounts infrequently, if 7 Banks can earn revenue from consumer use of debit cards in a variety of ways, depending on their role in the transaction. In debit card transactions, a bank can be an “issuing bank” (which issues the debit card to the consumer) or an “acquiring bank” (which acquires the transaction via its relationship with the merchant.) Merchants typically accept a discount off of the amounts the consumer promises to pay under debit and credit card transactions. A debit card issuer, like Central Bank, would typically capture its portion of this discount in “interchange fees.” . 4 Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision 208-029 at all, a significant minority—about 11%—overdrew approximately 50 times per year, generating $25 in fees each time. Another 11% did not overdraw their accounts at all, and the rest overdrew their accounts once or twice a year. Nationwide, the fees generated from overdraft programs was a major source of revenue for retail banks, and though relatively recent, was growing fast. Between 1999 and 2003, the number of banks using the leading vendor’s overdraft protection program increased more than fourfold.8 The policies behind this service were as controversial as they were popular. Overdraft Protection In the past, the probability of a consumer defaulting on an overdrawn check deterred most banks from covering account overdrafts. Only credit-worthy customers were awarded overdraft protection in the form of a line of credit.9 In addition, managers sometimes approved overdrafts on a case-bycase basis for customers with a high net worth or a longstanding relationship with the bank.10 Checks from other customers written with insufficient funds simply “bounced,” returning to the retailer unpaid. Bounced checks triggered a charge on the client’s bank account of more than $25, often in addition to a penalty charged by the retailer.11 But by 2004, many banks had decided to offer universal overdraft protection—not only for checks, but also, often, for transactions at ATMs and other points of service—in exchange for overdraft fees. Those in the industry saw overdraft protection as an improvement for consumers, especially when compared with past practices. “Universal overdraft protection, sometimes called ‘courtesy’ protection, applies to checking accounts automatically,” Coakley explained. “It puts an end to the old ad-hoc system and its bias. Branch managers often unintentionally favored people more like themselves. An automatic program gives all customers the same treatment regardless of gender, age, or ethnicity.” Paul Smith, Central Bank’s Overdraft Product Manager, emphasized the sense of security that the product gave customers. “It saves them from hassle and embarrassment,” he said. “Although we do charge a fee for the service, we essentially help clients avoid the cost and shame of a bounced check.” Overdraft services came in many different forms (see Exhibit 4 for examples). Some banks charged a flat fee for overdrafts, and some charged an additional amount by the day.12 The coverage limit also varied, usually between $500 and $1,200. But overall, the fees accounted for an increasing amount of bank revenue, and the service was becoming more and more common throughout the industry. According to the FDIC, A.T.M., bounced-check, and overdraft fees totaled $30 billion in 2003, a 14 percent increase over 2001.13 This figure represented 30% of banks operating profits.14 8 Alex Berenson, “Banks Encourage Overdrafts, Reaping Profit,” The New York Times, January 22, 2003. 9 Jean Ann Fox, “Overdrawn: Consumers Face Hidden Overdraft Charges Form Nation’s Largest Banks,” Consumer Federation of America, June 9, 2005, p. 3. 10 Fox, p. 3. 11 http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/CheckingStudy2004/interest/nsf-fee.asp, accessed on August 30, 2007. 12 Department of the Treasury, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency [Docket No. 05-03], Federal Reserve System [Docket No. OP-1198], FDIC, National Credit Union Administration, “Joint Guidance on Overdraft Protection Programs,” p. 6. 13 Quoted in Berenson. 14 Quoted in Berenson. 5 208-029 Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision Opposition to the new overdraft programs grew as the practice became more popular. Consumer advocates argued that the fees took advantage of low-income customers, comparing them to the charges for salary advances offered by check-cashing outlets.15 The FDIC warned that “some institutions have adopted marketing practices that appear to encourage consumers to overdraw their accounts, such as by informing consumers that the service may be used to take an advance on their next paycheck.”16 A report by the Consumer Federation of America claimed that “the depositors who most frequently face [overdraft] fees are the lowest income and youngest consumers.”17 According to the New York Times, overdraft fees could “translate into an annual interest rate [of] several thousand percent” depending on the rate of repayment.18 In 2001, Central Bancompany introduced its own overdraft protection plan, called Overdraft Access (see Exhibit 5 for details). Covering all customers inevitably resulted in some defaults. If a customer defaulted on an overdrawn account, the average cost to the bank was $250. However, responsible customers more than made up for this loss. The majority of customers who incurred overdraft fees at Central Bancompany branches paid their bills reliably, albeit late. They also came from a wide range of social and economic demographics, suggesting that they lacked the discipline needed to balance a checking account rather than the financial ability to do so. By 2004, overdraft fees accounted for about 25% of Central Bancompany’s revenue. Opening an Account at Central Bancompany The USA PATRIOT Act of 2001 required banks in the United States to verify the identity of their clients through a customer identification program (CIP).19 Thus, like most American banks, Central required potential customers seeking a new checking account to visit an affiliate branch in person rather than contacting the bank by phone or over the internet. At Central, a customer service representative (CSR) at the branch interviewed each potential client to assess his or her checking account needs. This interview also served to collect the information required by the CIP, including full name, date of birth, and a physical street address verified by a document such as a driver’s license or passport.20 When the CSR entered a potential client’s information into the bank’s main database, it was automatically submitted to the bank’s risk assessment system, an external data solution called ChexSystems provided by a firm of the same name. ChexSystems compared the data with information from other banks in order to flag applicants who had recently experienced a negative, risk-enhancing event. The system notified the bank if the customer had been forced to close an account or had left bills unpaid at a participating retailer. It also informed the bank of cases in which 15 Berenson. 16 “Joint Guidance on Overdraft Protection Programs.” 17 Fox, p. 18. 18 Berenson. 19 Susan B. Hollinger, “USA Patriot Act Requires Banks to Implement Customer Identification Programs,” Gallagher, Callahan & Gartrell, PC, http://www.gcglaw.com/resources/financial/identification.html. Viewed June 11, 2007. 20 Carl Fornaris, “USA Patriot Act: Long-Awaited Final Customer Identification Regulations That Apply to Banks, Broker Dealers, Trust Companies, Mutual Funds and Other Financial Institutions,” Greenberg Traurig LLP, http://www.gtlaw.com/ pub/alerts/2003/fornarisc_05.asp. Viewed June 11, 2007. 6 Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision 208-029 the given social security number and other identifying information did not seem to match, signaling a possible incidence of identity fraud or theft (a typical screen is displayed in Exhibit 6). Central Bancompany’s historic policy was to reject all account applicants who were listed with a negative event in ChexSystems. In theory, the CSR had the authority to override a warning generated by ChexSystems. These overrides were then submitted to a branch manager for approval. However, as Eileen Richter, a CSR in the main branch of Central Bank in Jefferson City explained, her colleagues did not exercise this discretionary power lightly: [CSRs] don’t overrule the system unless they have access to some very compelling information not captured by the bank database—for instance, if the customer has a long history with the bank and the CSR is familiar with his or her story. If I approve a flagged customer and the relationship turns sour, I know that I will get my hand slapped. Sarah Wood, the branch manager, corroborated Richter’s account: “As the largest branch, we open some 140 accounts per month. All requests to override the ChexSystems recommendation have to go through me, but in any given month I only receive one or two requests. Of these, I only approve about half.” If a CSR decided to reject an account based on a negative risk assessment, he or she informed the applicant and provided a document detailing how to contact ChexSystems to find out the reason for denial (Exhibit 7). As Richter noted, “applicants usually know what the problem on their record is in advance. They may even indicate as much in the initial interview.”21 From Coakley’s point of view, the current risk-assessment policies amounted to a black and white system of approval: I’m sure that Larry, my hard-working neighbor, would not make it past the first interview in one of our branches. His past bankruptcy would probably scare off the CSR. In the current climate, a lot of people like him may be walking out of the branches empty-handed—or, rather, carrying the denial sheet generated by ChexSystems. Back in his office, Coakley scanned the sales pitch Tom Lankford, a sales executive at ChexSystems, had given him describing the firm’s new QualiFile product. Coakley had voiced some of his frustrations about the “black and white” evaluation system to Lankford a few months earlier, in the fall of 2004. But before he made any calls about the new system, he decided to give the company profile a closer look. eFunds ChexSystems, Inc. was a wholly owned subsidiary of eFunds Corporation. eFunds, in turn, was a Scottsdale-based firm that focused on three business segments: electronic payments, global outsourcing, and risk management (see Exhibit 8 for the relative contribution of each segment). The electronic payments segment processed transactions at approximately 140,000 ATMs, retail terminals, 21 The decision to approve or decline was made by the individual financial institution and not by eFunds. If a decline decision was made by the financial institution based on ChexSystems data, the standard practice was to provide the consumer with an adverse action notice with information on how to review a free copy of the consumer's ChexSystems report. The ChexSystems report given to the consumer provided detailed information on how to dispute incorrect data. 7 208-029 Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision and other points of service nationwide.22 The global outsourcing division offered products that helped collect data and support call centers and back-office services outside the United States.23 The risk management segment helped banks verify customer identities, detect fraud, and prevent financial loss (see Exhibit 9 for a list of services and suite of products of eFunds risk management segment). Paul Bjerke, Director of Product Management for ChexSystems, commenting on the scope of the information captured in the company's databases, noted that “approximately 9,000 financial institutions, representing over 100,000 banking locations, report to ChexSystems. That’s about 90% of all commercial banks, credit unions, and savings institutions.” The eFunds risk management business grew out of an earlier response to a simple problem. In 1971, two Minneapolis grocers decided to share the names of customers who had paid for their groceries with bad checks. Over time, more grocers joined their group and area banks agreed to provide them with the identities of clients whose accounts had been closed. Later on, this list was taken over by a third party that maintained the archive, responded to inquiries, and shared information with banks and retailers. The company grew quickly, about 20 percent a year, and the list of customers soon filled walls of shelves and filing cabinets. According to company legend, the firm was forced to adopt electronic files when employees, who continuously handled the heavy files, began to complain of back pain. This electronic database eventually came to be known as ChexSystems. In 1984, ChexSystems was purchased by the Deluxe Corporation. By April 1999, the Deluxe Corporation had combined ChexSystems with three other operating units—DebitBureau, Deposit Payment Protection Services, and an electronic check conversion company—to form eFunds. In June 2000, the eFunds Corporation held its initial public offering on the NASDAQ national market and later that year completed its separation from Deluxe. The launch of the new eFunds Corporation brought a new CEO, Paul Walsh, and with him a new team. Walsh’s team led efforts to develop a diverse suite of risk assessment products, one of which was QualiFile. QualiFile The QualiFile product was part of eFunds’ initiative to create a higher value-added product for customers seeking a finer segmentation of risk. Instead of providing raw information about a customer’s negative financial events, like ChexSystems, QualiFile integrated proprietary information with data from other sources in an econometric model. The model weighed each factor to produce a number known as the QualiFile Risk Score, which ranged from 100 to 899 (Exhibit 10). Higher scores predicted a lower likelihood of eventual default. Customers without any information were assigned a score reflecting the historic risk of a no-information applicant. While recent fraud still triggered a very low score, other negative events that had simply been flagged in the ChexSystems database were put into perspective using a more holistic view of the customer’s financial history. Along with the risk score, QualiFile was able to generate customized action recommendations for each applicant based on a set of rules adopted by the bank using the service. In fact, front-line employees at the bank never saw the score but a screen suggesting a specific commercial action (Exhibit 11). Each bank that purchased QualiFile could request that eFunds program the system 22 eFunds Annual Report 2005. Revenue generated by ATM Management’s processing fees was recorded under the Electronic Payments business segment. 23 eFunds Annual Report 2005. 8 Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision 208-029 according to the bank’s current strategy. Thus, if a bank wanted to be more aggressive and assume more risk, it could set a lower cut-off point for account approval. The bank could also manage its risk by offering different product features (such as overdraft protection or a credit card offer) depending on the QualiFile Risk Score of the applicant. Although Coakley was only considering the version of QualiFile that focused on debit risk, eFunds also offered versions of the product that bundled debit risk information with data from the credit bureaus and/or data from suppliers of socio-demographic information. Banks could incorporate this information into their customer relationship management (CRM) systems to design a more sophisticated segmentation of the product offering for potential applicants. After carefully reviewing the rest of the brochure, Coakley turned to the chart that eFunds had created to support QualiFile sales and help customers understand the value of the product. Using actual information from a nationally representative sample of one million accounts opened by banks that were customers of eFunds, the chart compared the performance of customers who were offered a checking account based on the information in ChexSystems with the score they would have received using QualiFile (Exhibit 12). QualiFile’s statistical model seemed to offer the potential for an improvement over ChexSystems’ system of flags. Still, Coakley wondered exactly how much value it could offer the bank. The average ChexSystems inquiry costed $2; the same inquiry using QualiFile would cost $2.75. Would QualiFile really help Central accept more valuable customers? How much would the bank lose on bad customer bets? Would CSRs trust or fear the new tool? If the bank bought the product, what kind of customer acquisition strategy should it pursue? 9 208-029 Exhibit 1 Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision Summary Financial Information: Central Bancompany in millions Interest Income 2001 $ 379.85 2002 $ 308.93 2003 $ 269.38 2004 $ 289.94 Interest Expense 169.99 94.91 66.53 66.06 Net Interest Income 209.86 214.03 202.85 223.87 Noninterest income $ 83.64 $ 91.74 $ 105.51 $ 101.34 Noninterest expense 168.17 174.10 181.32 189.80 Net Noninterest Income -84.53 -82.36 -75.81 -88.46 Provision for loan losses $ Income before taxes Income taxes Net income (12.89) $ (16.03) $ (14.87) $ 112.44 115.64 112.18 -42.65 $ 69.79 -40.98 $ 74.66 -36.79 $ 75.39 (9.24) 126.18 -45.74 $ 80.43 Assets Cash and Due from Banks Investment securities Money Market Obligations Loans less Unearned Income Allowance for Loan Losses Net Loans Other Assets Total Assets $163.33 1,233.64 $189.13 $183.38 1,468.15 1,698.63 $184.30 275.21 262.52 214.35 1,683.47 172.50 3,663.28 3,716.49 3,782.08 4,122.01 (63.82) (67.52) (71.03) (73.90) 3,599.46 3,648.97 3,711.04 4,048.11 295.65 295.20 313.96 335.18 $5,567.29 $5,863.98 $6,121.36 $6,423.56 Liabilities Non-interest-Bearing Demand Deposits $745.84 $849.96 $977.41 $1,055.04 Savings, NOW, and oney Market Deposits 1,589.57 1,725.62 1,781.85 1,974.15 Time Deposits 1,913.01 1,830.91 1,773.79 1,710.79 Total Deposits $4,248.42 $4,406.49 $4,533.05 $4,739.98 652.18 736.04 810.84 837.75 Borrowed Funds 58.40 52.72 50.44 58.55 Other Liabilities 81.88 81.08 82.44 76.26 5,040.88 5,276.33 5,476.78 5,712.54 Federal Funds Purchased & Repurchase Agreements Total Liabilities Total Stockholder Equity Total Liabilities and Stockholder Equity Source: Central Bank documents. 10 526.41 587.65 644.59 711.01 $5,567.29 $5,863.98 $6,121.36 $6,423.56 Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision Exhibit 2 208-029 Evolution of the U.S. Call Rate, 1984-2004. Yields in percentages. Call Rate 1/6/2004 1/6/2002 1/6/2000 1/6/1998 1/6/1996 1/6/1994 1/6/1992 1/6/1990 1/6/1988 1/6/1986 1/6/1984 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Source: Global Financial Data. Note: The call rate is the interest rate for overnight deposits in the interbank market. Exhibit 3 Breakdown of Financial Institutions’ Income by Source. FDIC-Insured Banks, 1982–2004. $ Billions, Percentage. 100%= 86.7 Other Income 23% Net Interest Income 77% 1982 128.9 174.6 256.4 356.6 433.6 27% 32% 37% 43% 42% 73% 68% 63% 57% 58% 1986 1991 1996 2000 2004 Sources: Standard & Poor’s Banking Industry Surveys: November 12, 1992, November 11, 1999; November 8, 2001; November 6, 2003; July 7, 2005 11 208-029 Exhibit 4 Comparison of Overdraft Products Overdraft Protection Program Non-Credit Line Protection Credit Line Protection Bounced Check Fees Source: -12- Bank of America Premier Bank Commerce Bank Exchange National Bank United Missouri Bank Central Bank No Yes No No No Yes Cost Free Free Free Free $15 Free Savings account link Yes Yes No No No No Courtesy protection No No No Yes No Yes Fee per overdraft $10 (per transfer) $22 N/A $24 N/A $25-$35 Offered Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Fee amount Yearly, first offense $20; $35 thereafter $28 Yearly, first offense $25; $35 thereafter $24 $32 $25-$35 Automatic www.bankofamerica.com, accessed July 13, 2007; www.wellsfargo.com, accessed July 13,2007; www.commercebank.com, accessed July 13, 2007; www.exchangebk.com, accessed July 14, 2007; www.umb.com, accessed July 14, 2007; Central Bancompany documents. Note: 2007 pricing schedules. Although 2004 price levels may differ, diversity of schemes is representative of 2004 overdraft protection products 208-029 Exhibit 5a Overdraft Access at Central Bancompany: Product Brochure Source: Central Bank documents. See Exhibit 5b for detail of far right column. -13- 208-029 Exhibit 5a (continued) For more information stop by any of our convenient locations, or call us. Source: Central Bank documents. -14- Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision Exhibit 5b 208-029 Detail of Overdraft Access Brochure Overdraft Access Policy It is the policy of all Central Bancompany Affiliates (hereafter known as Bank) to comply with all applicable safety and soundness standards. Your Understanding Your Deposit Account brochure describes the duties, obligations and rights of the Depositor, the Authorized Signatories and the Bank with regard to your deposit accounts. Your Understanding Your Deposit Account brochure is incorporated herein for all purposes as if it were set forth verbatim, and its terms shall control any possible conflict, if any, between any provision of the Overdraft Access Policy and that of the Understanding Your Deposit Account brochure. The Bank is not obligated to pay any item presented for payment if your account does not contain sufficient collected (available) funds. Any discretionary service payment by the Bank of any non-sufficient fund check, inperson withdrawal, ATM withdrawal, or other electronic item or to provide prior written notice of its decision to refuse to pay any additional non-sufficient fund check, in-person withdrawal, ATM withdrawal, or other electronic item. Pursuant to the Bank’s commitment to always provide better customer service, if you maintain an account that has been open for a minimum of thirty days, the Bank will consider approving your overdrafts, whether they result from checks, in-person withdrawal, ATM withdrawal, or other electronic transactions. In deciding whether or not to approve your overdrafts, the Bank may consider a number of factors, including but not limited to, whether or not your account is in good standing, how long your account has been open, your average deposit balances held with the Bank, and/or whether or not you or your account is subject to any legal or administrative order or levy. Then the Bank will consider, as a discretionary courtesy and not a right or obligation, approving your reasonable overdrafts. Overdraft Access is neither an overdraft line of credit nor an overdraft protection agreement. Each month your Overdraft Access amount will appear on your deposit account statement. Any and all bank fees and charges, including without limitation the non-sufficient fund/overdraft fees, will be added to your Overdraft Access balance, regardless of whether such charges and fees result in a balance exceeding your overdraft Access limit. The total overdraft Access (negative) balance, including any and all bank fees and charges, is due and payable upon demand, and the Depositor and each Authorized Signatory will continue to be liable for such amounts, as described in the Understanding Your Deposit Account brochure. Again, approval of reasonable overdrafts through Overdraft Access on accounts in good standing (as described above) is only a courtesy, and not a right or obligation. Accordingly, the listing of an Overdraft Access amount on your account statement is not a guarantee or agreement that your overdrafts will be paid. It is within the Bank’s sole and absolute discretion to cease this service at any time without prior written notice, reason or cause. If you present a check, in-person withdrawal, ATM withdrawal, or other electronic transaction for payment and we create an overdraft, pursuant to provisions in the Understanding Your Deposit Account brochure, you agree to pay us the amount of any overdraft and applicable fees as published, immediately, without notice or demand from us, unless you otherwise specify you wish all NSFs returned. Each account holder is jointly and severally responsible under the terms outlined in Understanding Your Deposit Account brochure for paying any overdraft amounts. All Overdraft/NSF fees are listed in the Common Features section of the Understanding Your Deposit Account brochure. You have the right to “Opt-Out” of Overdraft Access. Contact any Customer Service Representative to request removal of Overdraft Access from your account. Source: Central Bank documents. 15 208-029 Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision Exhibit 6 Sample ChexSystems Response Screen MCD712A-01 SS NBR : 996-52-8512 LAST NAME : ADAMS STREET : 1234 ELM AVENUE ZIP CODE : 55551 DOB: 9566 TIME AT ADDR : 1 YRS 2 MOS CHEXSYSTEMS 08:55:22 DL NBR: A100100100100 FIRST NAME : ROBERT CITY : STILLWATER PHONE (H) : 999-555-1234 PRV STS : OR 01/07/04 DL ST : MN MI : R ST : MO DEPOSIT : 500.00 (01) SS NBR: BECAME AVAILABLE FOR ISSUANCE IN 1956 IN CO (Possible Manipulations Delivered Next Day) (02) DL VALIDATION: VALID DRIVER’S LICENSE FORMAT: ADAMS, ROBERT R DOB: 09/05/66 (03) 06 PREVIOUS INQUIRIES BY 04 F.I.(S) (Tracked for Next 30 Days) (04) REPORTED INFORMATION: (Tracked for Next 90 Days) SS NBR: 996-52-8512 ADAMS, ROBERT R 5234 GET-A-WAY STREET BLUFFTON, KS 55551 REASON: NSF ACTIVITY (05))COLLECTION INFO: DEBT REPORTED OF $190 REPORTED BY: DATE: 06-07-00 METROBANK/FIRST STREET OFFICE 1234 BANK STREET BANKTOWN, MO 555555 (06) RETAIL: 6 ITEMS FOR $150 (07) WARM ADDRESS: MAIL BOX ETC (08) PHONE INFO: CELLULAR PH# / PHONE NUMBER NOT FOUND IN ZIP CODE (09) SSN/DOB INFORMATION: SSN BECAME AVAILABLE BEFORE DATE OF BIRTH. CURRENTAGE 29 Source: eFunds documents. 16 Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision Exhibit 7 Checking Account Refusal Letter Source: Central Bank documents. 17 208-029 208-029 Exhibit 8 Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision Contribution to eFunds Operating Income by Division, US$ Millions, 2004 $16.0 ($2.3) ($29.6) $26.5 $58.5 $47.9 46 Division Risk Management Electronic Payments Global ATM Outsourcing Management* Corporate Expenses Total Source: eFunds, Casewriter analysis. Note: On November 19, 2004, eFunds sold the ATM management business, simultaneously entering a five-year master service agreement with the buyer to operate significant parts of the business. Thereafter, eFunds ceased to present ATM management as an independent segment, recording the operating results of the agreement within the electronic payments segment. 18 Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision Exhibit 9a 208-029 eFunds Risk Management Division Services Fraud Prevention Targeting Drive traffic to branches and web sites Move from free checking to relationships: universe expansion Regulatory Compliance Non-intrusive Streamline fraud screening enterprise during the compliance account opening activities and process costs Need for increased efficiency Know-YourCustomer Minimize false positives Move from unbanked to banked Risk Management Relationship Expansion Improve riskreward ratio through automated account opening Enforce consistent decisions across delivery channels Account Management Leverage account Increase opening to build efficiency while relationships minimizing losses Target products to consumers’ Gain insight on needs account portfolio Leverage account opening “data” Manage fraud at the enterprise Cross sell level Improve chargeoff recovery New Account Decisioning New Account Opening Know Your Customer Account Management Enterprise Fraud Management Source: eFunds documents. Exhibit 9b eFunds Product Suite New Account Opening New Account Decisioning • EFD DebitBureau ® • EFD ChexSystems SM New AccountChex • EFD eXpress Accounts Know Your Customer • EFD ID Verification • EFD Government List Screening • EFD ChexSystems QualiFile® • EFD Address Analysis • EFD Cross Sell • EFD ID Authentication SM • EFD FraudFinder • EFD Debit Report • EFD Account Ownership • EFD Background Reports Focus of the case Source: eFunds documents 19 Account Management Enterprise Fraud Management • EFD Behavior Monitoring • EFD Integrated Fraud Platform • EFD Consumer Education • EFD Investigative Case Management • EFD Deposit Account Recovery 208-029 Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision Exhibit 10a QualiFile Risk Score Breakdown Am ounts Ow ed, 3.8% Account Type, 4.0% Recent Activity, 9.5% Current Status, 35.4% Length of History, 14.7% Paym ent History, 32.7% Current Status Payment History Length of History Recent Activity Account Type Amounts Owed The percentage assigned to each of the factors depicted above reflects its impact to the QualiFile score with respect to the entire population. The impact of these factors may vary from individual to individual due to differences in credit and debit history. • • • • • Current Status • Present status of all credit accounts • Present status of specific types of credit accounts • Present status of all debit accounts Payment History • Delinquency details (including lack of delinquency) on all credit accounts • Delinquency details (including lack of delinquency) on specific types of credit accounts • The number and timing of retail items Length of History • The length of overall credit history • The length of history for specific types of credit accounts • The length of debit account history Account Type • The types of credit accounts • The number of each credit account type Amounts Owed • The percentage of revolving credit line currently in use Source: eFunds documents. 20 Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision 208-029 Exhibit 10b QualiFile Information Structure Information from Financial Institutions Information from Retailers Third-Party Information Over 9,000 institutions and 100,000 locations Over 70,000 locations―70% of retail check payments > Account applications > 3.5 billion checks verified at point-of-sale > Reported account openings > Unpaid NSF checks > Paid NSF checks > Reported account closures > Positive pay records > Check printing histories > Time-to-pay records Analytics and Decisions > State-of-the-art consumer data integration > Demographic data > Public records > Predictive risk models > Cross-industry fraud suspect data > Neural net fraud models > Driver’s license files Links > Phone information > Warm address files > Lost and stolen account numbers > Postal information > Fraud hot list records > Social Security Administration data > Integrated to major credit bureaus > Other industry partners Source: eFunds documents. Exhibit 11 Sample QualiFile Response Screen QUALIFILE MCD704A-01 SS NBR : 996-52-8512 LAST NAME : ADAMS STREET : 1234 ELM AVENUE ZIP CODE : 55551 DOB: 9566 TIME AT ADDR : 1 YRS 2 MOS 21 DL NBR: A100100100100 FIRST NAME : ROBERT CITY : STILLWATER PHONE (H) : 999-555-1234 PRV STS : OR (01) ACTION (02) PRODUCT OFFER(S): ATM CARD DEBIT CARD CREDIT CARD LINE OF CREDIT OVERDRAFT PROTECTION NOTIFY BROKERAGE SERVICES Source: eFunds documents. : 08:54:02 ACCEPT CHECKING ACCOUNT MAIL THANK YOU NOTE 06/01/04 DL ST : MN MI : R ST : MO DEPOSIT : 500.00 COPY DRIVERS LICENSE + $200 $5000 $2000 $1500 + 09.99% 16.80% 18.00% 208-029 Exhibit 12 Segment Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision QualiFile Risk Score Performance Table Score Interval # of Accounts # of Bads New AccountChex Plus Hit Indexed Revenue Per Account Indexed Losses Per Bad 1 100 - 132 45,103 16,257 37,170 136 120 2 133 - 155 45,368 13,753 24,607 120 104 3 156 - 176 44,660 12,347 21,273 116 105 4 177 - 197 46,130 11,495 20,083 108 99 5 198 - 220 45,592 10,555 20,193 113 100 6 221 - 245 45,569 9,627 19,034 113 102 7 246 - 275 45,611 8,971 19,757 120 103 8 276 - 307 45,004 8,070 18,098 117 105 9 308 - 345 45,311 7,232 16,620 114 100 10 346 - 384 45,883 5,948 15,590 113 117 11 385 - 415 45,952 5,683 7,554 90 97 12 416 - 466 45,493 5,039 9,695 103 108 13 467 - 525 45,001 4,236 8,373 107 115 14 526 - 586 46,054 3,459 6,172 99 109 15 587 - 647 45,228 2,569 3,895 97 125 16 648 - 707 45,391 2,303 2,788 91 89 17 708 - 766 46,141 1,822 1,777 81 151 18 767 - 832 45,395 1,417 701 76 129 19 833 - 873 6,350 261 27 93 22 20 998 (Deceased SSN) 187 21 999 (No Data) Total 636 87 205 160 174,130 24,997 0 71 65 1,000,000 156,127 253,611 100 100 The first five columns in this table are drawn from a database eFunds compiled from approximately 1 million accounts in client banks. eFunds then applied QualiFile and AccountChex Plus to these accounts. • Segment: An arbitrary grouping of accounts by score defined so that each group contains roughly the same number of accounts. • Score Interval: The minimum and maximum scores in each segment assessed at the moment the accounts were opened. • # of Accounts: The number of accounts in each segment. • # of Bads: The number of accounts forcibly closed by the bank within one year of the account opening. • New AccountChex Plus Hit: The number of accounts in each segment that were flagged at the time of opening due to a negative event (the forcible closing of an account, an unpaid check, or an unpaid retailer account) within the previous five years. If a bank used a rule to deny accounts to all consumers with a check system “hit” these accounts would not have been opened. The last two columns in this table were constructed using the data of an undisclosed customer bank for which eFunds performed a special study. The indices are built so that the average of all segments = 100. • Indexed Revenue Per Account: The financial margin and fees minus the operating costs for a good account. • Indexed Losses Per Bad: The revenues generated by the account minus the outstanding unpaid overdrafts and the costs of bill collection. Source: eFunds. 22 Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision 23 208-029