Agile Development and UAV Costs

Transcription

Agile development and
Cost of UAV
A pe rsona l opinion from
Pa ul Ba gule y with the
he lp from Colle a gue s
Structure
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Agile Examples
Notional Cost Estimates
Agile Concepts
Cost Engineering in Agility
UAV information
Obsolescence
Affordability
Uncertainty Methodology
Some models of Agility
Qualitative indicator of cost
Cranfield Pre vious
Proje cts dra wn on
• Product Service Systems
• Uncertainty
• Obsolescence
• Affordability
• Uncertainty in Cost Estimates during
Manufacturing
• NECTISE (Networked Enabled Capability Through
Innovative Systems Engineering)
• This is a personal opinion from Paul Baguley only
Agility has different
fa ce s
• Agility forum at Iacocca Institute, Lehigh University, in
the USA in 1991
• For software development is: Initially blend of lean
management principles and Flexible Manufacturing
System technologies (Vinodh et al 2010)
Vinodh, S. , Sundararaj, G. , Devadasan, S. R. and Rajanayagam, D.(2009) 'TADS-ABC: a system for
costing total agile design system', International Journal of Production Research, 47: 24, 6941 — 6966
Lehigh University, 4
points of Agility
• Enriching customers, Products versus Solutions
• Mastering Change and Uncertainty, Entrepeneurial
Organisation
• Cooperating to enhance competitiveness, Virtual
Organisation
• Leveraging the impact of people and information
Overall less uncertainty in manufacturing costs?
Reduced development costs for new capabilities?
http://www.lehigh.edu/~inesc/index_files/Page1266.htm
Sunday Times
Higher training costs
• Nevertheless, the principles for such a transition are clear enough. Investment in the
new technologies of command and control, communication and surveillance, of seeing
and interpreting the operational space clearly and getting the right forces to where they
are needed, should take precedence over investment in weapons platforms. Smart
command is more important than smart weapons in almost any military operation.
• At the other end of the scale, the skills and training of the personnel—the soldiers, the
sailors, the airmen and women—are also critical to "transformative" forces. Their ability
to adapt and maintain their high professionalism and dedication in a range of roles and
with a variety of technologies is key to playing to British strengths. The challenge is to
produce military units that can master the integration of systems, make the most of civil
technologies and restructure their own organisations flexibly, as occasion demands.
• Not least, "transformative" armed forces should be backed up by excellent intelligence.
All military commanders want good tactical intelligence to give them the greatest
advantage. A bigger national challenge is to invest in better strategic intelligence to
detect shifts in Britain's security environment in Europe, the Middle East and elsewhere.
Raw information is not intelligence. The intelligence picture must be expertly interpreted
and then acted upon. The most transformative military in the world cannot rescue a
defence policy that is not politically sensitive to its own neighbourhood.
Our most devastating weapon is agility; THINK TANK NEW IDEAS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY
The services must get smarter to cope with today's threats, says Michael Clarke
Michael Clarke
882 words
24 January 2010
The Sunday Times
Agility Examples
• “The UK Royal Air Force (RAF) has announced on November 8,
2007, that its MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is ready
for service and flying operations in Afghanistan. One of the three
purchased under an urgent operational requirements in 2006, the
general Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc (GAASI) Reaper arrived in
Afghanistan in October 2007. The rapid acquisition and deployment of
Reaper is considered by the UK Ministry of Defence as a successful
demonstration of the flexibility and agility of its procurement process.
Reaper is tasked with providing an all-weather, persistent intelligence,
surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance (ISTAR) capability
over a wide area to improve the situational awareness for ground
troops. Reaper is also equipped with Raytheon's AN/DAS-1
Multispectral Targeting System and GSSAI's AN/APY-8 Lynx 1
synthetic aperture radar with a ground moving-target indicator mode”.
Jane’s Defence Weekly November 2007 MJ Gething
Background Information
a bout UAVs a nd Cost
In Europe achieving excellence in autonomous systems is
challenging in the following projects:
• Neuron: a multilateral European project led by French
aeronautics major Dassault Aviation;
• Taranis: the UK newcomer being developed by BAE
Systems; and
• Barracuda: a German-Spanish bilateral project developed
by EADS Germany, suspended in late 2007 following the
loss of a prototype.
Agile Support Project Mary Ann Clement PM Jan 1999
UAV SURVEY
Anonymous
Flight International; Aug 7-Aug 13, 2007; 172, 5099; ABI/INFORM Trade & Industry
pg. 22
US Air Force Remotely Piloted Aircraft
And un-manned aerial vehicle: strategic vision
Levels of Agility
Ma ckle y e t a l from
NECTISE
Example
• The current prototype has a single engine and a swept W-shaped
wing, similar to the American B-2 Sprint strategic bomber. The plane,
to a scale three quarters the size of the future operational UCAV,
measures 9.3 metres in length with a 12.5 metre wingspan. Take-off
weight is estimated at 5-6.5 tonnes. It is a subsonic craft (Mach 08.5)
with endurance of some 12 hours.
• Agile support strategies include : the development of a real time
maintenance network (investment cost), resupply of key suppliers
using commercial business techniques and strategic business
relationships (lower costs), and reduced inventories of spare parts
(lower cash flow).
UAV SURVEY
Anonymous
pg. 22
SEER-H e xa mple
e stima te UAV
Agile Design Model
Agile Manufacturing Models
Agile Software Development
Models
Agile Maintenance
Agile Operations, Network
Enabled Capability
PRICE Systems example
Agile Concepts from
the lite ra ture :
Ma nufa cturing
• Taxonomy of types of manufacturing agility being basically
quick, responsive, pro-active (Zhang 2010)
• Workforce agility modelled using the real options method.
Maintain workforce capacity per unit of production (Qin and
Nembhard 2010)
• Agility index in the supply chain (Lin et al 2006) (e.g. The Agile
Drivers are: customer requirement, competition criteria, market,
technological innovation)
More Research & Developent Investment Costs?
Structure of Agility
Conce pts in the Supply
Cha in
Lin et al 2006
Agile Concepts from the
lite ra ture :
Ma nufa cturing
• Business case decision models for agile
manufacturing plants in the automotive industry
(Elkins 2004)
• Supply chain flexibility in the construction sector
using pools of suppliers through framework
agreement, preferred suppliers and approved
suppliers(Gosling et al 2009)
• Supply chain risk through characteristics,
performance and the environment (Trkman and
McCormack (2009))
Skewed cost risk profiles in supply costs to more probable lower costs and less risks
Cost Engineering of
Agility
• Activity Based Costing example next slides
• CoSosimo University of Southern California for cost
of System of Systems
Need more information sources to cost Agility, hence cost of cost estimates greater
Total Agile Design
Syste m (TADS) ABC
• Agile manufacturing electronic switches
• Agile manufacturing (“customers reactions and proactive participations”, “data technology”, then Quality
Function Deployment, CAD, CAM, rapid protoyping,
then mass customisation)
Total Agile Design
Syste ms (TADS ABC)
Total Agile Design
Syste ms (TADS ABC)
PSS-Cost Project
Researcher:
Francisco Romero Rojo
Supervisors:
Prof Rajkumar Roy
Dr Essam Shehab
Project Manager: Dr Kalyan Cheruvu
7th Joint Obsolescence
Management Working Group
(JOMWG)
11th May 2010
Identify Obsolescence issues
for the a gile e tc a nd UAV
te chnologie s (FR)
• Obsolescence issues in communications system
between UAV and ground stations.
• Evolution of network architectures and technologies
• Backwards compatibility?
• Modularity to simplify upgrades?
• Avionics short lifecycle
Identify Obsolescence issues
for the a gile e tc a nd UAV
te chnologie s (FR)
• Agile development gets rid of obsolete components
but it may have an impact on the rest of the system 
redesigns
• Agile designs are flexible, so the impact of
obsolescence is reduced.
Obsolescence issues for the
UAV te chnologie s
• Air vehicle
• Structure
•
•
•
•
Wing – Structural Materials obsolescence
Empennage – Structural Materials obsolescence
Fuselage – Structural Materials obsolescence
Secondary Structure – Structural Materials
obsolescence
• Alighting Gear – Structural Materials obsolescence
• Engine Section – Structural Materials obsolescence
• Air Induction – Structural Materials obsolescence
UAV te chnologie s
• Propulsion
• Engine – Materials & EEE obsolescence
• Fuel System – Materials & EEE obsolescence
• Systems
•
•
•
•
Aircraft Com Nav – EEE & S/W obsolescence
Aircraft Flight Controls – EEE & S/W obsolescence
Harnesses – Materials obsolescence
Hydraulic/Pneumatic – EEE & Materials
obsolescence
UAV te chnologie s
• Payload
•
•
•
•
•
Antenna – Materials obsolescence
Antenna Electronics – EEE obsolescence
Payload Electronics – Materials obsolescence
CPU – EEE obsolescence
Harnesses – Materials obsolescence
UAV te chnologie s
• Ground Components
• Tactical Ground Mobile Unit
• Humvee Vehicle (High Mobility Multi-purpose
Wheeled Vehicle) – EEE & Materials obsolescence
• Electronic Gear
• Flight Control CPU – EEE & S/W obsolescence
• Flight Data CPU – EEE & S/W obsolescence
• Mission CPU– EEE & S/W obsolescence
UAV te chnologie s
• Electronic Gear
• Flight Transmitters Receivers – EEE obsolescence
• Mission Transmitters Receivers – EEE
obsolescence
• Antenna Electronics – EEE obsolescence
• Antenna – Materials obsolescence
• Launcher
• Launcher – Materials obsolescence
Agile Support Concepts
Agility in support:
• A telemaintenance system that has been put in place to link up the operational and flight test bases with the
• Teledyne Ryan Action Center and its key suppliers.
• An automated fault diagnostics capability used for troubleshooting, consisting of expert systems and
integrated database and digital images of the problem areas.
• Supplier strategic partnering consisting of electronic web-based procurement of spares and supplier
agreements for rapid spares delivery. (from the Global Hawk Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) program)
Agile techniques:
More Knowledge and Automated Support
• Strategic Partnering
Requires investment in Maintenance Technologies
• Multi-tier Purchasing Agreements
• Vendor Certifications
• Delivery to Point of Use
Faults detected and solved better,
• Vendor Base Consolidations
less maintenance operating costs
• Networked Information Systems and
• Resource Planning
• Rapid Supply Chain Contracting
• Electronic Data Interchanges
UAV SURVEY
Anonymous
pg. 22
In Europe achieving excellence in autonomous systems is
challenging in the following projects:
• Neuron: a multilateral European project led by French
aeronautics major Dassault Aviation;
• Taranis: the UK newcomer being developed by BAE
Systems; and
• Barracuda: a German-Spanish bilateral project developed
by EADS Germany, suspended in late 2007 following the
loss of a prototype.
UAV SURVEY
Anonymous
pg. 22
Literature Source on
UAV costs
manned systems, life-cycle operating and maintenance costs may be
significantly less. For example, operator training potentially can be
conducted using robust mission simulators, reducing or eliminating
the need for dedicated training flights with the actual aircraft. Reduced
use of the aircraft for training results in less maintenance and greater
availability for operational use. Based on recent studies and current
projected funding levels, there is no need for large increases in
research and development funding in the area of low-observability
technology. Unmanned systems can use a combination of current
low-observable technology, electronic countermeasures, active
defenses, and high-altitude flight to achieve a level of protection
comparable to advanced manned systems. However, propulsion
technologies and technologies that enable autonomous operation,
including robust human-machine interfaces for operator situational
awareness and system oversight, require increased emphasis; many
of the potential attributes of
UAV SURVEY
Anonymous
pg. 22
UAV costs
Policy Costs?
unmanned systems can only be realized through advances in these areas that are not
currently programmed or fully funded. Unmanned systems, with their long loiter times,
are collecting vast amounts of imagery, but there is currently no Air Force policy or
methodology for retaining or aggregating this data. Each unit is developing policies for
archiving and eventually disposing of the images they take. This increases local costs
for hardware and manpower without a firm basis in requirements. The Air Force must
work with DoD to establish policy for image reconnaissance data disposition in order to
drive down these costs. Tradespace is a significant challenge that unmanned systems
will face as manned and unmanned systems both grow in cost and complexity. The
challenge is in finding the proper mix of manned and unmanned systems in a “revenueneutral” environment; the result may be a lower number of total systems. Addressing
this challenge requires innovative thinking. For example, when designing new RPAs
and UAVs, the Air Force and other Services should consider whether a larger number
of small, inexpensive systems could provide the same or better capability provided by a
smaller number of larger, more expensive.
UAV SURVEY
Anonymous
pg. 22
UAV costs
The application of Agile support concepts to the Global Hawk program results in a $22-million decrease
to the overall life-cycle cost of the program, while contributing to a 20-percent increase in operational
availability. (From the Global Hawk Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) program)
UAVs come in two varieties: some are controlled from a remote location, and others fly autonomously
based on pre-programmed flight plans using more complex dynamic automation systems.
Classifying UAV’S
• They can also be categorised in terms of range/altitude and the following has been
advanced as relevant at such industry events as ParcAberporth Unmanned Systems
forum:
• Handheld 2,000 ft (600 m) altitude, about 2 km range
• Close 5,000 ft (1,500 m) altitude, up to 10 km range
• NATO type 10,000 ft (3,000 m) altitude, up to 50 km range
• Tactical 18,000 ft (5,500 m) altitude, about 160 km range
• MALE (medium altitude, long endurance) up to 30,000 ft (9,000 m) and range over
200 km
• HALE (high altitude, long endurance) over 30,000 ft (9,100 m) and indefinite range
• HYPERSONIC high-speed, supersonic (Mach 1–5) or hypersonic (Mach 5+) 50,000 ft
(15,200 m) or suborbital altitude, range over 200 km
• ORBITAL low earth orbit (Mach 25+)
• CIS Lunar Earth-Moon transfer
• CACGS Computer Assisted Carrier Guidance System for UAVs
Technology in UAV’s
Less costs for sensors integration
Because of interoperability
•
Autonomy technology that is important to UAV development falls under the following
categories:
•
•
Sensor fusion: Combining information from different sensors for use on board the vehicle
Communications: Handling communication and coordination between multiple agents in the
presence of incomplete and imperfect information
Path planning: Determining an optimal path for vehicle to go while meeting certain objectives
and mission constraints, such as obstacles or fuel requirements
Trajectory Generation (sometimes called Motion planning): Determining an optimal control
maneuver to take to follow a given path or to go from one location to another
Trajectory Regulation: The specific control strategies required to constrain a vehicle within
some tolerance to a trajectory
Task Allocation and Scheduling: Determining the optimal distribution of tasks amongst a
group of agents, with time and equipment constraints
Cooperative Tactics: Formulating an optimal sequence and spatial distribution of activities
between agents in order to maximize chance of success in any given mission scenario
•
•
•
•
•
An example cost estimate
for ma nufa cturing
• The RQ-4 Global Hawk produced by the American company Northrop Grumman is a
high altitude long endurance (HALE) UAV. It has a unit cost of 35 million dollars and
can fly for 36 hours at 20 000 metres altitude. 14.5 metres long and with a wingspan of
39 metres, it has a maximum weight of 14.6 tonnes ("Euro Hawk"). It is the first UAV to
have crossed the Pacific from the United States to Australia (in 22 hours, in 2001).
Known in Europe as "Euro Hawk", this model was the fruit of cooperation between
Northrop Grumman and EADS. www.luftwaffe.de
• Taranis is about the practical implementation of the concepts developed in the
framework of those various projects:
• Replica: stealth combat aircraft project conducted in the framework of the "Future
Offensive Air Systems" (FOAS) programme in order to develop British stealth
technologies. Following a five-year research effort a full-scale prototype was built in
1999 for a total cost of 20 million pounds. In 2005, FOAS was replaced by a new
programme called "Future Combat Air Capability" (FCAC). The UK also has access,
through its participation in the F-35 Lightning II-Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) programme, to
the more advanced American research in the area of stealth.
Potential investment in
UAVs
• Notwithstanding these qualities, however, UCAV systems are not at
the top of the list of priorities when it comes to modernising and
replacing European air fleets, a fact which is reflected in the sums
invested in the three programmes - Neuron, Taranis and Barracuda amounting to 500 to 600 million euros over five or six years.
• This may not have happened yet, but the matter deserves to be given
thought, particularly in the context of Europe's regularly declining
population rates and tight defence budgets, which are no longer
sufficient to pay for all the major land, air, naval but also space
equipment programmes that are under way or planned for the coming
years. The aeronautical sector is particularly at risk, because
production series are smaller and states can no longer really afford to
buy hundreds of aircraft at a unit cost of 40 to 50 million euros.
UAV market segments
- R&D, tests and evaluation
- Unmanned Air Vehicles
- Payloads
- Ground Control Systems
- Service, support and maintenance
- Training
- Data management
- Revenues by UAV Groups (by vehicle airspeed,
weight, and operating altitude)
Investigate the concept of Affordability from 3 perspectives:
Customer
Affordability
Affordability
Supplier
Sustainability
Manufacturer
Profitability
Dimensions of Supplier Sustainability
Dimensions and measures of
Supplier Sustainability
Supplier Sustainability
Delivery & Quality – refers to the totality of features and characteristics of a
product or service that bear on its ability to satisfy customer need which
make it fitness for purpose. (SC21, 2009, Whicker et al., 2009).
- Agility to respond to customer requirement change is the ability to respond
to short-term changes in demand or supply quickly and handles external
disruptions smoothly. This is measured by the speed of supplier’s response
as seen below.
Measure
Score Definition
1
responds to short-term changes quickly and maintain
quality
3
responds to short-term changes gradually and maintain
5
responds to short-term changes slowly
quality
Lee et al (2005), control
syste m for a gile
ma nufa cturing
Decrease overall cost of new developments through
Modular design
• Standard interfaces, modularity
• “respond rapidly and flexibly to volume changes, speed up
model turnover, facilitate equipment upgrading”
• “respond rapidly and flexibly to unpredictable market
demands”
• “flexibility, reconfigurability, re-usability”
• “new functions and process technology to be rapidly
integrated”
• Physical, Functional, Knowledge modularity
Lee, S.M., Harrison, R., and West, A.A., (2005), “A component based control system for agile manufacturing”,
Proc. IMechE Vol. 219 Part B: J. Engineering Manufacture, pp.123-135
Agile Manufacturing
Crite ria
Vinodh, S. , Sundararaj, G. , Devadasan, S. R. , Maharaja, R. , Rajanayagam, D. and Goyal, S. K.(2008)
'DESSAC: a decision support system for quantifying and analysing agility', International Journal of Production Research,
46: 23, 6759 — 6780
Increasing or Decreasing
Unce rta intie s
(Pa re kh e t a l 2010)
• Correlation uncertainty decreased
• Skews to lower costs
Evolution of Uncertainty from Service Bid to Disposal (Erkoyuncu et al., 2010)
• Bid cost
• Exchange
rate
• Revenue
• Affordability
• Turnaround time
• Tooling
• Repair cost
• Technology Refresh
Requirements
• Operational cost
• Spares cost
• Obsolescence
Resolution
• Disposal cost
• Disposal strategy
• Environmental Legislation
Time
Bid
In-service phase
Disposal
Sources of uncertainty in service delivery (Erkoyuncu et al., 2010)
Sources of uncertainty
Service demand uncertainty
Service supply uncertainty
Type
Nature
Type
Nature
Reliability
Aleatory
Mean Time to
Aleatory-Epistemic
Repair
Availability
Aleatory
Supply Chain:
Aleatory-Epistemic
Capacity,
Capability
Mean Time
Aleatory
Human
Epistemic
Between Failure
Involvement
Scope of Service Epistemic-Aleatory
Fault Freeness
Epistemic
Delivery Urgency
Aleatory
Responsiveness
Aleatory
Differences Across
Aleatory
Repair Time
Aleatory
Customer Demand
Maintainability
Epistemic-Aleatory
Maintenance
Aleatory
requirement
Obsolescence
Epistemic-Aleatory
Stock level
Epistemic
Classification of uncertainties in cost data and models (Xu et al., 2010)
Data Uncertainty
Classification
Variability
Source
Inherent randomness
Type
Aleatory
Statistical error
Lack of data
Epistemic and aleatory Reliability data
Vagueness
Linguistic uncertainty
Epistemic and aleatory The component needs
to be replaced about
every 2 to 3 months.
Ambiguity
Multiple
data
Subjective judgement
Optimism bias
sources
Imprecision
Model Uncertainty
Future decision
choice
Intuitive/expert opinion Judgement
of Epistemic
Epistemic
or Epistemic
Epistemic
Analogical
Selection
of Epistemic
benchmark
model
(qualitative
characteristics)
Parametric
Cost
drivers/parameters
CER choice
Regression fit
Data uncertainty
Extrapolation
Scope
Level of details
Analytical/engineering
Example
Repair time, Mean
Time Between Failure
Expert 1 and expert 2
provides
different
values to end-of-life
costs.
Over confidence in
schedule allocation.
Supplier A or B
Similar manufacturing
process will be used
but
geometrical
changes are made
The system will have
20% higher capacity
than existing system
and consumes 10%
less fuel
Epistemic and aleatory Missing
key
cost
drivers
Unsuitable
CER
function form
Epistemic and aleatory Simplification in WBS
due to lack of time
Types of uncertainty in Contracting for Availability (Erkoyuncu e t a l., 2010)
PSS
Focus
Performance
Internal factors: Performance against key performance indicators
External factors: Combination of all other categories
Engineering
Internal factors: Skill level of maintainers,
repair time, rate of availability of facility
External factors: Rate of emergent work,
complexity of equipment, no fault found rate,
quality of components and manufacturing,
transport, rate of repairability, equipment
utilisation rate or component stress and load,
mean time between failure data, logistic delays,
rate of materials, rate of materials,
rate of beyond economical repair, location of
maintenance, failure rate of hardware, rate of
consumables requirements, operating
parameters, maintenance policy part level
Training
Internal factors: Availability of trainers,
facilities availability, courses to be
offered
External factors: Trainee skill level,
number of students, affordability of
customer, ability to screen candidates,
length of course
Commercial
Internal factors: Bid success rate, whole life cycle cost
External factors: Customer ability to spend, economy
Internal factors: Cost estimation process, labour efficiency, labour
availability, level of uncertainty contingency, relationship with
suppliers process
External factors: Customer misuse, KPI specification, changing
requirements, customer relationship, work share between partners,
environmental burden, material cost
PSS
Setting
Affordability
PSS
Enabling
Internal factors: Rate of system
integration issues, maintaining design
rights, rate of rework, quality of
engineering, cost estimating data
quality, cost estimating data,
interpretation management of risk and
opportunities
External factors: Rate of capability
upgrades, licensing and certification,
Failure rate for software, technology
refresh, severity of obsolescence, rate of
fault investigation
Operation
Uncertainties Identified
Uncertainty
Technology transfer
Technology implementation
Breaches in intellectual property rights
Retention of technology advantage
Increase in complexity
Slow performance
Higher performance
Obsolescence - Planned
Obsolescence - Unplanned - Technical
Obsolescence - Unplanned - Functional
Accelerated rate of Technology Change - Increased rate of
technology insertion and upgrade
Design tools are not adequate (CAD, CAE)
Unproven Technology
Accuracy of cost estimates
Poor product definition for costing purposes
The need to spend to meet performance guarantees
Non-contractual BoM growth
Non-contractual change in scope
Impact of schedule changes
Impact of engineering changes
Level of internal cost competitiveness
Level of purchasing power
Programmatic risks
Programming language variance
Licensing issues
Slow software performance - Programming language
Slow software performance - Due to software/hardware
combination
Lack of system integration
IT System failure
Variation in Simulation and Sample data
Third party software agreements
Does not meet requirements
Software is not available on time
No recognisable upgrade path
Software is not supportable
Change in scope
Change in work pattern
Change in Scale (i.e. quantity)
Readability
Sequence identification
Site Facility
Consumabl Finished
SubProduct
Process
Supplier
e
Product Procurement Technology Technology TechnologyComponent Assembly Assembly Overhead Software
1
3
0
1
0
2
2
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
3
2
3
3
3
1
1
3
2
1
2
1
0
3
3
3
1
1
4
4
4
3
3
1
1
3
3
3
4
4
4
3
3
1
1
3
3
3
2
1
2
1
0
3
3
3
1
1
2
2
3
2
3
3
3
1
1
3
2
2
3
2
3
3
3
1
1
3
2
2
3
2
3
3
3
1
1
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
3
3
3
1
1
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
2
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
3
0
4
3
3
3
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
3
3
3
4
3
3
0
3
3
3
0
0
3
1
3
1
4
1
3
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
3
3
3
1
4
1
3
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
3
3
1
2
3
3
3
4
3
3
0
3
3
3
0
0
3
1
0
0
3
0
4
3
3
3
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
4
3
3
3
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
4
3
3
3
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
3
3
3
3
0
3
1
0
2
2
2
2
2
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
3
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
0
2
2
0
1
3
2
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
0
2
2
0
3
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
0
0
0
0
0
Agile Properties in
Softwa re De ve lopme nt
(Foge lstrom e t a l 2010)
Decrease requirements creep costs in
Software development?
•
•
•
•
•
Feature orientation (in small and frequent iterations)
Reactive development
Evolving project release scope (updating the release scope)
Applicability of agile to large critical systems?
Lack of large documentation and planning stages will reduce
costs here at the front.
• Cost of requirements volatility decreased? (see reactive
development)
• What are the needs of defence versus agile development:
(“balancing different requirement types”, “trade-off between
market pull and technology push”, “release content planning”).
This was agile versus market driven software product
development.
JOURNAL OF SOFTWARE MAINTENANCE AND EVOLUTION: RESEARCH AND PRACTICE
J. Softw. Maint. Evol.: Res. Pract. 2010; 22:53–80
Published online 21May 2009 inWiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/spip.420
SOFTWARE PROCESS IMPROVEMENT AND PRACTICE ARTICLE
The impact of agile principles
on market-driven software
product development
Nina Dzamashvili Fogelstr¨om1,∗, †, Tony Gorschek1
Mikael Svahnberg1 and Peo Olsson2
1Department of Systems and Software Engineering
Types of Uncertainty
• Unknown unknowns
• Service perspective uncertainties (Erkoyuncu et al.,
2010):
• commercial
• affordability
• performance
• training
• operation
• engineering
Example Maintenance
Activitie s
• MQ-1 Predator Aircraft and Aircraft Related (Airframe) The airframe consists of the structural repair of the main body of the aircraft. It includes
structural members, control surfaces, and other integral airframe components.
• MQ-1 Predator Ground Data Terminal (GDT)
- The GDT maintains the line-of-sight radio frequency (RF) data link with the aircraft.
The GDT is remotely located from the ground control station (GCS).
• MQ-1 Predator Primary Satellite Link (PSL)
- Software portion of the ground control station that functions as the aircraft cockpit.
• MQ-1 Predator Ground Control Station (GCS)
- Functions as the aircraft cockpit. The control station can control the aircraft either
within the line of sight (LOS) or beyond the LOS (BLOS). The GCS is either mobile to
support forward operating locations or at a fixed facility to support remote fixed
operation.
• MQ-9 Reaper Airframe
- The airframe consists of the structural repair of the main body of the aircraft. It
includes structural members, control surfaces, and other integral airframe components.
(defenceacquisition.com)
Issues in Agility
• Risk – software entropy when using agile software
development is
• “Software entropy is a phenomenon where repeated
changes gradually degrade the structure of the
system, making it hard to understand and maintain”
(Hansen et al 2010)
• Mobile and wireless technologies for asset
management and maintenance (Emmanouilidis et al
2009)
Richter 2010
• Shifts design decisions from the system level to the module
level
• What is the contract, how is its incompleteness modelled?
• Life Cycle Cost supplier reductions as part of new industrial
product service business models
• Flexibility in opportunities in providing service caused by
contracts
• Product architecture designed with regards to flexibility of
supply chain
• Risks are risks to the supply chain being flexible or not
• Modularisation
• How can management accounting measure flexibility?
Richter, A., et al., Flexibility in industrial product-service systems and use-oriented business
models. CIRP Journal of Manufacturing Science and Technology (2010),
Richter et al (2010)
• Flexibility is considered with other aspects of changeability
• Because of flexibility target costing and NPV not used but real options
for instance
• “literature on modularisation shows a negative economic
consequences must be expected with over or under modularisation”
Richter, A., et al., Flexibility in industrial product-service systems and use-oriented business models. CIRP Journal of Manufacturing Science and Technology (2010)
Agility Enablers
Ma ckle y e t a l
Liu et al
• Increased cost of testing because of poor scalability
of agile development to large NEC projects as
compared to small agile software development
methods
Agile Properties of Service
Oriented Architectures for
Network Enabled Capability
Lu Liu, Duncan Russell & Jie
Xu
School of Computing
University of Leeds
Leeds, West Yorkshire, U.K.
{luliu, duncanr & jxu}@comp.leeds.ac.uk
John K Davies & Ken Irvin
BAE Systems Insyte
Victory Point
Frimley, U.K.
{john.k.davies & ken.irvin}@baesystems.com
Liu et al
• Sensors deployed on a UAV as part of a new
capability
Agile Properties of Service Oriented Architectures for
Network Enabled Capability
Lu Liu, Duncan Russell & Jie Xu
School of Computing
University of Leeds
Leeds, West Yorkshire, U.K.
{luliu, duncanr & jxu}@comp.leeds.ac.uk
John K Davies & Ken Irvin
BAE Systems Insyte
Victory Point
Frimley, U.K.
{john.k.davies & ken.irvin}@baesystems.com
Agile acquisition
• Maneouvre in acquisition like an F18. F18 had a
larger canopy and assisted controls to change
quicker than the Mig in the Korean War
• Asymmetric transients
• Get inside the opponents agility loop (Mackley et al)
Agile Acquisition
Exa mple
•
•
•
“A good example of a team that was enabled in this manner is the team that developed and fielded
the BLU-118/B Thermobaric Weapon. On 11 Oct 01, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency
organized a quick-response team including Navy, Air Force, Department of Energy (DOE), and
industry. Their purpose was to look at a number of on-going Advanced Concept Technology
Demonstrations and then “identify, test, integrate, and field a rapid solution that would enhance
weapons options in countering hardened underground targets.5” The Navy focused on development
of the new explosive, while the Air Force had system integration, safety and flight, and a modified
fuze. On 14 Dec 01, the BLU-118/B was successfully tested at a Nevada Test Site tunnel. On 21
Dec 01, Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Edward C. Aldridge, announced a small number
of the weapons were being deployed to support the war in Afghanistan. In late January 02, the Air
Force completed technical data and flight"
“certifications, clearing the way for operational use of the ten warheads that were available. The first
combat use of the warhead occurred on 3 Mar 02.6”
“The team was formed in mid-October and ten warheads were available for use at the end of
January – approximately three and half months later. The team created an “asymmetric fast
transient” by modifying an existing penetrator with new capability to reach the enemy where
previously they had been safe. The compressed process employed on the BLU-118/B initiative
should be the rule, instead of the exception. It should not take actual combat for the acquisition
community to shift into high gear. Whether we are at war or not, every delay drives two major
impacts: 1) the capability delayed is not available for use in the field, and 2) resources for
addressing other warfighting capabilities are not available”.
AIR FORCE FELLOWS (SDE)
AIR UNIVERSITY
“ASYMMETRIC FAST TRANSIENTS”
APPLIED TO
REDUCE DOD ACQUISITION CYCLE TIME
by
Jeffrey L. Schaff, Lt Col, USAF
A Research Report Submitted to Air Force Fellows, CADRE/AR
In Partial Fulfillment of the Graduation Requirements Advisor: National Laboratory Liaison Officer, Col Steven C. Suddarth
Organization: USSTRATCOM
High Level Trade-off a t
the ca pa bility le ve l
(Ma ckle y e t a l)
• Service provision, asymmetric threats, urgent
operational requirements, legacy systems,
sustainable solutions
Uncertainty Identification
Tool (UnIT)
The purpose of the UnIT is to assist users into making
effective decisions concerning the feasibility of a
cost estimate
Methodology
Tool for classifying
unce rta intie s
(AACE, 1997)
Identify public domain models
Neuron, Taranis and Barracuda represent three UAV programmes in Europe
Examples of Uncertainty
(Ma ckle y e t a l)
Correlations in types of
Cost (Ma ckle y e t a l)
Agility activities
(Ma ckle y e t a l, NECTISE)
Conclusions
• Investments needed to adopt agile practice
• Costs should focus on capability and capability
profiles
• Initial investments are offset against the lower costs
of capability updates
• Requirements uncertainty decreased
• Shorter lead times
• Less risk with standardised parts
• Trade-off new capability against training and
operations costs
• Different types of uncertainties
Comments
Reduced Development Costs for new
Capabilities
Higher Training Costs to Master new
Capabilities
Less Uncertainty in Manufacturing
Cost
Investment costs for real-time
maintenance network
Lower cost of supply
Cost of cost estimating greater
Faults detected and solved better
hence less maintenance costs
More knowledge and automated
support requires investment in
maintenance technologies
Decrease overall cost of new
developments through modular design
Correlation uncertainty decreased
Increased cost of testing
Software entropy risk

Agile Development and UAV Costs

Transcription

Similar documents

Digital Industry - PASSTI | Perkumpulan Assessment Center Indonesia

IT Governance for Agility

Cybex Trazer

Estimating Functional Obsolescence Working RE

Safety, Reliability and Restoration PDF

Panera Experience Report

Wherever you are. Whenever you need it.

MC01515L Technical Sheet

AGILE Data Center

X-47B UCAS - Northrop Grumman

powerful•flexible•gentle

The Agile Business Analyst

Staff includes… Price… $480

KING AIR C90GTx - Beechcraft

White Paper: Developing an Internal Agile Coaching Capability