Luxembourg Netherlands ODA支出と各種経済指標との関係

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Luxembourg Netherlands ODA支出と各種経済指標との関係
ODA支出と各種経済指標との関係
Luxembourg
10000 20000 30000 40000
34
36
38
40
8
9
10
11
0
100
200
300
200
oda
100
0
40000
30000
gdp
20000
10000
10
rgdpg
5
0
40
38
taxr
36
34
10
5
govbalr
0
11
10
govdebtr
9
8
14
12
car
10
8
200
intres
100
0
5
4
unem
3
2
0
100
200
300
0
5
10
0
5
10
8
10
12
14
2
3
4
5
Netherlands
200000
400000
600000
35
40
45
50
100
0
20000
6000
oda
4000
2000
600000
gdp
400000
200000
5
rgdpg
0
45
taxr
40
35
0
govbalr
-5
-10
100
govdebtr
50
10
car
5
0
20000
intres
0
6
unem
4
2
2000
4000
6000
0
5
-10
-5
0
54
0
5
10
2
4
6
ODA支出と各種経済指標との関係
New Zealand
40000 60000 80000100000
32
34
36
38
20
40
60
0
5000
10000
300
200
oda
100
100000
80000
gdp
60000
40000
10
5
rgdpg
0
38
36
taxr
34
32
5
govbalr
0
-5
60
govdebtr
40
20
-2
-4
car
-6
-8
10000
intres
5000
0
10
8
unem
6
4
100
200
300
0
5
10
-5
0
5
-8
-6
-4
-2
4
6
8
10
Norway
100000150000200000250000
40
42
44
20
40
60
10000 20000 30000 40000
3000
oda
2000
1000
250000
200000
gdp
150000
100000
6
4
rgdpg
2
0
44
42
taxr
40
20
10
govbalr
0
60
govdebtr
40
20
20
car
10
0
40000
30000
intres
20000
10000
6
unem
4
2
1000
2000
3000
0
2
4
6
0
10
20
55
0
10
20
2
4
6
ODA支出と各種経済指標との関係
Portugal
100000 150000 200000 250000
30
35
40
60
65
70
75
0
5000
10000 15000
1000
oda
500
0
250000
200000
gdp
150000
100000
4
2
rgdpg
0
-2
40
35
taxr
30
-2
-4
govbalr
-6
-8
75
70
govdebtr
65
60
0
car
-5
-10
15000
10000
intres
5000
0
8
unem
6
4
0
500
1000
-2
0
2
4
-8
-6
-4
-2
-10
-5
0
4
6
8
Spain
500000
1000000
1500000
32
34
36
40
60
80
0
20000 40000 60000
4000
3000
oda
2000
1000
1500000
gdp
1000000
500000
5
rgdpg
0
-5
36
taxr
34
32
0
govbalr
-5
-10
80
govdebtr
60
40
0
car
-5
-10
60000
40000
intres
20000
0
20
15
unem
10
1000
2000
3000
4000
-5
0
5
-10
-5
0
56
-10
-5
0
10
15
20
ODA支出と各種経済指標との関係
Sweden
150000200000250000300000
46
48
50
52
50
60
70
80
10000
15000
20000
4000
3000
oda
2000
1000
300000
250000
gdp
200000
150000
4
2
rgdpg
0
-2
52
50
taxr
48
46
5
0
govbalr
-5
-10
80
70
govdebtr
60
50
10
5
car
0
-5
20000
15000
intres
10000
10
8
unem
6
4
1000
2000
3000
4000
-2
0
2
4
-10
-5
0
5
-5
0
5
10
4
6
8
10
Switzerland
150000 200000 250000 300000
26
28
30
30
40
50
60
20000
30000
40000
2000
1500
oda
1000
500
300000
250000
gdp
200000
150000
4
2
rgdpg
0
-2
30
28
taxr
26
2
0
govbalr
-2
-4
60
50
govdebtr
40
30
15
10
car
5
40000
intres
30000
20000
4
unem
3
2
500
1000
1500
2000
-2
0
2
4
-4
-2
0
2
57
5
10
15
2
3
4
ODA支出と各種経済指標との関係
UK
1000000 1500000 2000000
32
34
36
38
30
40
50
24000 26000 28000 30000
15000
10000
oda
5000
0
2000000
gdp
1500000
1000000
4
2
rgdpg
0
-2
38
36
taxr
34
32
5
0
govbalr
-5
-10
50
govdebtr
40
30
0
car
-2
-4
30000
28000
intres
26000
24000
10
8
unem
6
4
0
5000
10000 15000
-2
0
2
4
-10
-5
0
5
-4
-2
0
4
6
8
10
US
5000000
1.00e+07
1.50e+07
26
28
30
55
60
65
70
45000 50000 55000 60000
30000
20000
oda
10000
1.50e+07
gdp
1.00e+07
5000000
4
rgdpg
2
0
30
28
taxr
26
5
0
govbalr
-5
70
65
govdebtr
60
55
0
-2
car
-4
-6
60000
55000
intres
50000
45000
8
unem
6
4
10000
20000
30000
0
2
4
-5
0
5
58
-6
-4
-2
0
4
6
8
表5-5 時系列多変数相関係数
GDP
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Luxembourg
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States
(参考)pool
0.6882
0.7688
0.7975
0.4379
0.8859
0.3725
0.1143
0.4454
0.952
0.9632
0.0605
-0.2045
0.9761
0.861
0.7986
0.9006
0.4525
0.8666
0.6573
0.7245
0.8631
0.7758
0.8295
ODAとの相関係数
外貨準備
GDP成長率 租税負担率 財政収支
公的債務
経常収支 失業率
0.8769
-0.2763
0.3812
0.325
-0.4743
-0.6053
-0.5968
-0.5312
0.198
-0.2669
0.3115
0.091
0.6939
0.6967
-0.6882
-0.0397
0.2753
0.3819
-0.8031
-0.6845
0.0218
0.009
-0.2192
-0.5534
-0.0492
-0.5892
-0.0057
-0.1494
0.775
0.2566
0.7193
0.8589
-0.7531
0.3605
-0.7311
-0.1026
-0.435
-0.6342
0.25
-0.7761
-0.3747
-0.7034
-0.444
-0.3431
-0.3668
-0.485
-0.0002
-0.7625
0.1734
-0.3677
-0.0619
-0.4984
-0.2412
0.2412
0.7517
0.3643
-0.8645
0.5157
-0.3981
-0.034
0.3935
-0.7161
-0.5525
-0.8992
-0.6161
0.1107
-0.0495
-0.7223
-0.8604
-0.3913
-0.2685
-0.565
-0.4108
-0.4485
-0.5407
-0.6328
-0.6611
-0.2035
0.0984
0.1675
0.0694
-0.2243
-0.011
-0.2892
0.8164
0.152
-0.5002
-0.5585
-0.3927
-0.046
0.8324
-0.6143
-0.1795
-0.611
0.3049
-0.7364
0.7401
-0.2807
0.8621
-0.3653
0.6103
0.575
-0.6989
-0.8416
-0.7717
0.9258
-0.3634
0.7405
0.7125
0.8537
0.7166
-0.3426
-0.5149
-0.3422
0.2407
0.0818
0.3396
-0.1579
0.2528
-0.7626
0.1939
0.8744
0.7231
-0.6827
-0.879
-0.683
0.5763
0.1179
-0.1049
0.2745
-0.6427
0.482
-0.17
0.1984
0.3809
0.3513
0.3744
0.3899
0.7049
0.5759
-0.1041
0.0761
0.5465
0.0975
-0.0764
-0.6255
-0.6088
-0.4907
-0.1127
-0.4302
-0.2908
-0.3246
-0.7616
-0.0654
0.4712
-0.1749
-0.3167
-0.2339
0.1824
-0.0809
-0.1155
59
表5-6 時系列重回帰分析
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Luxembourg
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UK
US
(参考)pool
GDP
外貨準備
0.002258**
none
none
0.002816***
0.006787***
0.008261***
0.003356***
-0.00447***
0.002636***
0.033641***
none
none
-0.1268***
none
none
none
none
0.0092*
none
none
none
none
0.007814*** none
0.018891*** none
0.001963*** none
0.019301*** none
none
-0.08789***
0.00229*** none
none
0.085654**
0.012708*** none
0.016131*** none
0.002123***
-0.4738***
0.001517*** 0.013909***
*** 1%水準で有意
GDP
租税
公的債務
財政収支
成長率
負担率
-75.6081** -157.315*** none
26.68895***
none
-267.602*** 170.5586*** none
-81.6238*** -258.569*** none
-37.7374***
none
none
none
-49.7155***
none
69.43829** none
none
none
76.39264** -62.3626*** none
none
none
none
none
none
1155.721** none
none
none
none
none
none
all dropped because of estimability
-217.755* none
-365.843*** 196.1962***
none
none
none
none
none
none
5.608119** none
none
125.6354* none
70.39346***
none
9.974313** none
none
none
none
none
none
-83.8058* -581.66*** 215.1825*** 50.46806**
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
-71.6239***
none
-199.901*** none
none
-473.792*** 1087.921*** none
none
none
none
-1311.7*** none
-145.561** 55.06034*** -125.695*** -14.7272***
** 5%水準で有意
* 10%水準で有意
60
経常収支
失業率
-64.865***
none
none
none
none
-23.787**
-1448.3***
1272.12***
none
none
469.7248***
219.7572***
none
none
-91.8758***
1251.411***
none
-25.642**
-963.62***
none
-4.6847**
none
-12.795**
-52.278***
-101.95**
-277.75***
none
none
718.952*
none
59.3396**
none
none
35.58945***
none
none
187.6989***
none
156.2269***
265.4576***
none
2224.758***
none
none
修正決定 DW値
係数
0.9589
3.01
0.7322
2.28
0.9337
3.21
0.8378
2.34
0.8281
1.04
0.9361
2.38
0.8978
2.82
0.8158
2.49
0.9315
2.63
.
0.8408
1.7
0
1.52
0.9916
2.05
0.8771
1.82
0.9108
2.05
0.9249
1.43
0.7359
2.88
0.9347
1.93
0.7772
1.69
0.7313
1.86
0.9497
1.6
0.8967
2.14
0.7507
-
表5-7 時系列重回帰(対数変換)
lnGDP
ln外貨準備
Australia
1.322***
0.350**
Austria
2.512***
none
Belgium
none
none
Canada
0.865***
-0.900***
Denmark
0.545***
none
Finland
1.695***
none
France
0.611***
none
Germany
-1.345***
none
Greece
1.544***
none
Ireland
none
none
Italy
none
none
Japan
none
none
Luxembourg 1.594***
-0.218**
Netherlands none
-0.294***
New Zealand none
none
Norway
1.180***
none
Portugal
4.967***
-0.549**
Spain
1.056***
none
Sweden
none
0.446**
Switzerland 2.431***
none
none
United Kingdom1.201***
United States none
-1.449***
(参考)pool 0.892***
0.140***
*** 1%水準で有意
GDP
租税
成長率
負担率
-0.088***
-0.202***
none
none
-0.071***
-0.199***
none
none
none
0.044**
none
0.102*
none
none
none
0.142**
none
none
none
none
-0.120***
-0.089**
none
none
none
0.081***
none
none
none
0.084**
none
0.142*
none
-0.908***
none
none
none
none
none
-0.186***
none
0.290***
none
none
none
0.053***
** 5%水準で有意
財政収支
公的債務
none
0.025***
none
none
none
-0.030***
none
-0.022***
none
none
-0.112***
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
-0.124***
0.076***
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
-0.020***
none
none
0.252***
none
none
-0.012*
none
-0.027***
none
none
-0.123***
none
-0.095***
none
-0.053***
-0.0083***
* 10%水準で有意
61
経常収支
失業率
-0.091***
none
none
none
none
-0.040**
-0.217***
0.167***
none
none
-0.345***
none
-0.037***
0.067***
-0.061*
-0.026**
none
-0.079**
none
none
none
-0.164***
0.057***
none
none
0.170***
none
none
-0.164***
0.190***
none
none
none
none
none
0.223***
none
none
0.189***
none
0.068***
0.098***
none
none
none
-0.054***
修正決定
DW値
係数
0.93
2.62
0.599
1.14
0.936
2.79
0.824
2.27
0.841
1.23
0.929
2.28
0.85
2.43
0.814
2.2
0.895
2.14
0.935
1.3
0
1.45
0.994
2.55
0.87
2.9
0.884
1.9
0.882
1.31
0.833
2.96
0.919
2.29
0.749
1.81
0.677
1.93
0.916
1.91
0.885
1.88
0.893
-

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