2016-17 market conditions outbound travel canada`s performance at

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2016-17 market conditions outbound travel canada`s performance at
JAPAN
2016-17 MARKET CONDITIONS
Source: Oxford Economics, April 2016
The Japanese economy is forecasted to
maintain flat growth in 2016 amid the economic
weakening in Asia. Unemployment remains low
and stable.
2016
GDP
0.5%
0.5%
Consumer spending
-1.2%
-0.1%
Unemployment
3.4%
3.1%
Inflation
0.8%
0.0%
Although a slight appreciation of the yen
was recorded in the first quarter of 2016, the
persistent weakness of the Japanese currency
is anticipated to continue in 2016.
OUTBOUND TRAVEL
Japanese long-haul (LH) travel1 has slowed
since 2013, now accounting for 47% of total
outbound trips from Japan. The emergence
of Asian low-cost carriers in recent years is a
major factor explaining why short-haul travel
outpaced LH travel in recent years.
Arrivals to Canada have been gaining
momentum since 2012, helped by additional air
capacity.
2017
9.4M LH trips
in 2015
175
Trend
180
80
USD
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Short-haul
Long-haul destination share
Long-haul
Canada
150
1. United States
35%
2. France
8%
3. Germany
7%
4. Spain
5%
5. Italy
4%
47%
53%
125
100
75
50
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Despite global outbound travel of Japanese
travellers contracting in 2015, overnight arrivals
to Canada rose 7.6% in 2015. Approximately
259,000 Japanese visited Canada, generating
$459 million in tourist receipts and
supporting about 3,300 jobs.
700,000
2014
Overnight Arrivals to Canada
2008 = 100
650,000 Peak arrivals (1996)
500,000
300,000
100,000
2013
2014
2015
TRAVEL TO CANADA: PLEASURE TRIPS
4%
7. Canada
3%
8. Austria
3%
9. Switzerland
2%
10. India
2%
2015
2016
Est. Forecast
Arrivals (,000s)
241
259
269
Y/Y %
+ 14.2%
+ 7.6%
+ 4.0%
Receipts ($M)
$437
$474
$549
Avg. spend
per trip
$1,817
$1,829
$2,039
2016
Source: Destination Canada estimates, ITS, Statistics Canada
Trip Purpose (,000s)
120
Pleasure trips, 2015
100
JP
39%
80
60
Business
Pleasure
VFR
Other
40
20
0
6. Australia
Source: International Travel Survey, Statistics Canada
DC forecasts that arrivals from Japan will
increase by 4% in 2016.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
CANADIAN DESTINATIONS VISITED, 2015
With direct air access from Japan, BC, Ontario
and Alberta are also the most visited places in
Canada among Japanese visitors. The North
also captures a significant share of Japanese
travel to Canada with 7% of total visitors.
EUR
CAD
AUD
Source: Tourism Economics
Japan Outbound
2008 = 100
Japan was Canada’s 6th largest source of
overseas visitors in 2015, representing an
estimated 5.6% of Canada’s overseas (excl. US)
tourist export receipts.
Although Japanese pleasure trips were much
shorter than the average among DC’s overseas
markets in 2015, Japanese travellers spent
86% more per night.
Less expensive to visit
Canada versus 2008
130
CANADA’S PERFORMANCE AT-A-GLANCE
In 2015, pleasure was the main trip purpose of
Japanese travellers to Canada, accounting for
39% of total trips. VFR trips accounted for 22%
of total trips by Japanese visitors to Canada in
2015.
Relative value of JPY vs. EUR, CAD, USD, AUD
2008 = 100
Total DC
Overseas
Duration (nights)
5.4
13.4
Avg. spend per trip
$1,878
$2,321
Avg. spend per night
$347
$187
2015
Source: DC estimates based on ITS, Statistics Canada, 2015
North
BC
AB
MB/SK
ON
QC
Atlantic
Share of visitors3
7%
35%
28%
3%
51%
13%
6%
Avg. annual visits (,000s)
18
91
72
6
132
33
15
April 2016 | 1 of 2
JAPAN
OVERNIGHT VISITORS BY AGE GROUP, 2014
Age Groups
Total
Leisure
Business
<19
6.8%
3.9%
1.3%
20-34
40.3%
43.5%
29.0%
35-44
14.7%
14.1%
28.6%
45-54
11.4%
10.7%
21.9%
55-64
11.1%
11.6%
10.3%
>65
14.1%
13.3%
8.0%
Not Stated
1.7%
2.9%
0.9%
Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Source: International Travel Survey, Statistics Canada, 2014
Millenial visitors (aged 20-34 years) account for the largest share of total visitation from Japan at
40%. The majority of leisure travellers are aged 20-44 years (58%).
AIR SERVICE TO CANADA Seat capacity from Japan will grow by 6%,
with most of the growth on Air Canada route
between Tokyo-Narita and Toronto, Calgary
and Vancouver.
AC will maintain its service from Osaka
introduced in 2015 (4x weekly in May and Oct,
5x weekly Jun-Sep).
Air seat capacity from Japan to the United
States will rise only moderately in 2016 (+0.7%).
The main US connection points for travel
from Japan are Honolulu, Los Angeles, San
Francisco and Chicago.
Source: Diio Mi, April 2016
Traveller routing to Canada, 2015
2016 seats (,000s)
Y/Y #
Y/Y %
Source: International Travel Survey, Statistics Canada
Total
517
+ 30
+ 6%
1%
Direct from Overseas
8%
Air via US
24%
66%
BC
278
+5
+ 2%
ON
178
+ 18
+ 11%
AB
61
+7
+ 12%
Land (from US)
Sea
About two third of Japanese visitors entered
Canada by air direct from overseas and the rest
(34%) via the U.S. in 2015, including 24% by air.
TRAVEL PLANNING
Role of travel agent
In contrast to most other markets, the role of travel agent is increasing for trips to Canada: in our
2015 study, about 75% of recent visitors to Canada consulted with a travel agent for information
or to book versus 67% in our 2013 study
Booking channel for flights
Travel agent ≈ 60%, Direct with airline ≈ 20%, Retailer online ≈ 15%
Planning timeframe
25% at least 4 months prior, 75% within 3 months of travelling (Source: GTW, 2013)
Booking timeframe
21% at least 4 months prior, 79% within 3 months of travelling (Source: Intervistas, 2015)
TRAVEL TRADE
16 key accounts most in Tokyo and Osaka
Top products include: West Coast, Canadian
Rockies, Niagara Falls and Eastern Canada
(fall foliage, history, culinary), Northern Canada
(Aurora), Atlantic (living the life of Anne).
Products combining dual provinces such as
Aurora with Vancouver or Canadian Rockies
and Canada with US are increasing.
DEFINITIONS
1
Long-haul (LH) travel
Travel beyond northeast Asia and mid-haul destinations in southeast Asia
2
Other Leisure trip to Canada
A trip where the main reason was something other than holiday, vacation, visiting friends and
family or business. Common reasons include educational study, personal motives (e.g. wedding,
medical), in transit and shopping.
3
Share of visitors
The share of visitors by province/region will sum to more than 100% because a visitor may visit
more than one province or region.
April 2016 | 2 of 2

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