Adding value to IRENA`s REmap 2030 project using a European

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Adding value to IRENA`s REmap 2030 project using a European
Adding value to IRENA’s REmap 2030 project using a
European Electricity Model
Seán Collins, Deger Saygin, Paul Deane, Dolf Gielen, Brian Ó Gallachóir
International Energy Workshop
Cork| 2nd June 2016
Agenda
• Overview
• Data and Methodology
– 9 REmap and 19 Non-REmap
countries
– Soft-linked methodology
• Results
Overview
• Adds value and tests power
sector results from REmap 2030
for electricity sector
• Done using a dedicated power
system model (PLEXOS).
• Model simulates the operation of
the EU power system at high
temporal and technical
resolution for a target year.
Objectives
• Test using a soft-linking methodology how plausible the REmap results
are for the European power sector
• Added value of this analysis at a country level of:
 Renewable curtailment
 Pricing
 Flexibility of the power system to absorb variable renewables
 Congestion on interconnector lines
REmap 2030
 Pathways for doubling the share of
renewable energy in the global energy
mix based on the national plans +
 Around 70% of EU final electricity
demand
 Developed through close IRENA-country
cooperation
 Reference Case (government plans, e.g.
NREAP of EU countries)
 REmap (realistic potential of RE beyond
the Reference Case, estimated through
country consultation)
+IRENA (2016) REmap: Roadmap for A Renewable Energy Future.
IRENA (2015) Renewable energy prospects: Germany, REmap 2030 analysis.
IRENA (2015) Renewable energy prospects: Poland, REmap 2030 analysis.
Methodology
-Detailed analysis of results using
soft-linking techniques+
-High temporal resolution (1 hr)
-High technical detail
-Ramping costs, flexibility metrics
EU 28 Model- 3,000 generators, 22
PHES Units, 53 IC Lines
+ Deane, J.P., Chiodi, A., Gargiulo, M., Ó Gallachóir, B.P., 2012. Soft-linking of a power
systems model to an energy systems model. Energy 42, 303–312.
Deane, J., Gracceva, F., Chiodi, A., Gargiulo, M., & Gallachóir, B. P. (2015). Assessing power
system security. A framework and a multi model approach. International Journal of
Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 73, 283-297.
Collins, S., Deane, J. P., & Ó Gallachóir, B. P. (2015). The EU Energy System in 2030:
Investigating electricity sector challenges. (In review)
Input Data
EU28 – 2030 Hourly Dispatch Electricity Model
• 9 Country Portfolios based on REmap
– Substitution method replacing fossil fuelled
generation with mainly VRES
• 19 Country Portfolios based on 2015
PRIMES reference scenario modified with
REmap methodology
– Increased penetration of VRES without
substitution of conventional generation
• Network based on latest ENTSOE TYNDP
• Standard generation units for all modes of
generation
• Carbon price of €30
REmap
NonREmap
19 Non REmap Vs. 9 REmap
• VRES is 25.7% of model
generation
• VRES is 30.5% of model
generation
Non REmap country differences
from reference case:
• 47% increase in Solar PV
installed capacity
• 10% Increase of Wind Installed
Capacity
• Total 32% increase in VRES
capacity
Differences from reference case:
• 42% Increase of Solar PV
Installed Capacity
• 54% Increase of Wind Installed
Capacity
• Total 48% increase in VRES
capacity
Wholesale Electricity Prices
• Increased VRES causes
systematic decrease in
system pricing
• Renewables causing a
shift in the merit order
curve
• Affects revenues of
conventional power
plants
Wholesale Electricity Prices
Changes Vs PRIMES REF 2013
• Difference between REmap
simulation results and
simulation of PRIMES REF
for 2030
Emissions Intensity
• Reduction in dispatchable
capacity across REmap countries
causes increased emissions in
non-REmap countries
• Coal Generation @40%
efficiency
– 850 kg CO2/MWh.
Emissions Intensity
Changes Vs PRIMES REF 2013
• Difference between REmap
simulation results and
simulation of PRIMES REF for
2030
Natural Gas Generation Capacity Factors
• A market with reduced capacity
factors
• Significant increase in price
received by generators per MWh
• Overall profitability reduced
CCGT Capacity Factors
100
90
80
70
%
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GR HR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK
PRIMES REF
REmap
Interconnector Congestion
• Limits the efficient movement of electricity particularly FR, DE
and UK
• Raises concerns over the flexibility of the power systems within
these member states with significantly increased VRES
Interconnector congestion
8000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
PRIMES REF
REmap
PL-SK
PL-SE
NO-UK
NO-SE
NO-NL
NO-FI
NO-DE
NL-UK
NI-UK
LT-PL
IT-SI
IE-UK
HU-SK
HU-RO
GR-IT
FR-UK
FR-IT
FR-IE
FR-ES
ES-FR
DK-SE
DK-NO
DK-NL
DE-SE
DE-PL
DE-NL
DE-FR
CZ-PL
CZ-DE
CH-IT
CH-FR
CH-DE
BG-GR
BE-UK
BE-NL
BE-FR
BE-DE
AT-SI
AT-IT
AT-DE
AT-HU
0
AT-CZ
Hours Congested
7000
Variable Renewable Curtailment
• Raises concerns regarding
the ability of the power
system to absorb the
variable renewables
• Well interconnected states
within the model run
experiencing curtailment
increased need for
flexibility
Interesting Findings By Country
France
• Significant amounts of dispatchable
Capacity is replaced by VRES
• Currently leading to highly congested
interconnectors
• Shadow Price of certain
interconnectors is over €300/MW
• To incorporate CHP demands is
challenging due to reduced natural gas
capacity
UK
• Very low electricity price – €50/MWh
(2014: €52/MWh)
• caused by high penetration wind
• Large exporter of power – very
congested Interconnectors
• High reliance on CCGT
Italy
• Most expensive large country – Also
one of the higher priced countries in
PRIMES REF
• Baseload CCGT generation + net import
of electricity seems to be the cause of
this
Germany
• Experiences curtailment
• Highly congested interconnectors
• Large exporter of power
• Great importer also due to reduced
dispatchable capacity – Polish Coal and
French Nuclear Generation mainly
Take home points
• REmap results enhanced with broader
regional modelling of interconnected
regions
• REmap EU power sector possible subject
to careful substitution of dispatchable
generation with VRES
• High VRES generation leads to increased
importance of interconnection
• Low curtailment even with high
penetration of VRES
• Reduction in dispatchable capacity of
REmap countries causes increased
emissions intensity in other MS
Thank You
www.ucc.ie/energypolicy

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