# :F$ EF FE # EE - Center for Financial Stability

Transcription

!"#$!%
$&'()&*&+)*,
-%*.),)%/
*#!),'0121
!34567'58'9:8;8<:;='>7;?:=:7@
*46:='0121
!"#$%&'()*#+*,'(*-./+.0*1(23(,%*4.56
!"#$%&'(0*%5*7'.0/(8*)09*:5)0;&*<%2=5
<3.#.)&;/*,>0*?@A9*B@C?DE*4").F(&,
GGG925#9'"
H<<1*CD?I@?JJ?*K=5$%5(L
!"#$#%"$&' ()$*"&")+' "(' $' ()$),' "#' -."%.' ).,' /"#$#%"$&' (+(),01' "#%&23"#4' 5,+' /"#$#%"$&' 0$65,)(' $#3' /"#$#%"$&' "#()")2)"7#(1' "('
%$8$*&,'7/'-").()$#3"#4',%7#70"%'(.7%5('$#3'%$#'/2&/"&'")('5,+'/2#%)"7#('(077).&+1'"9,9'"#),60,3"$)"#4'/"#$#%"$&'6,(726%,(1'
0$#$4"#4'/"#$#%"$&'6"(5('$#3'867%,(("#4'8$+0,#)')6$#($%)"7#(9
:.,';$4+$6'<,0=,)"'>$#5?('/2#3$0,#)$&'"#),6,()'$#3'@7"#)'6,(87#("*"&")+'-").'7).,6'47A,6#0,#)'"#()")2)"7#('"(')7'0$"#)$"#'
$#3' 86707),' ).,' ()$*"&")+' 7/' ).,' 370,()"%' /"#$#%"$&' (+(),09' :.,' 67&,' 7/' ).,' ;$4+$6' <,0=,)"' >$#5' "#' ).,' 0$"#),#$#%,' 7/'
/"#$#%"$&'()$*"&")+'"(' 3,/"#,3'*+').,'B,#)6$&'>$#5'C%)'$#3'$';,076$#320'7/'D#3,6()$#3"#4'7#'%7E78,6$)"7#'*,)-,,#').,'
F2#4$6"$#'!"#$#%"$&'G28,6A"(76+'C2).76")+1').,';"#"()6+'7/'!"#$#%,'$#3').,';$4+$6'<,0=,)"'>$#59'
:.,';$4+$6'<,0=,)"'>$#5'/$%"&")$),('$#3'()6,#4).,#('/"#$#%"$&'()$*"&")+'2("#4'$&&').,')77&('$)'")('3"(87($&'$#31'(.72&3').,'#,,3'
$6"(,1'0$#$4,(').,'"08$%)'7/'(.7%5(9'C('8$6)'7/')."('$%)"A")+1').,';$4+$6'<,0=,)"'>$#5'2#3,6)$5,('$'6,42&$6'$#3'%7086,.,#("A,'
$#$&+("('7/').,'0$%67,%7#70"%',#A"67#0,#)1').,'78,6$)"7#'7/').,'/"#$#%"$&'0$65,)(1'370,()"%'/"#$#%"$&'"#),60,3"$6",('$#3'
).,' /"#$#%"$&' "#/6$()62%)26,1' 6,A",-"#4' 6"(5(' -."%.' 87(,' $' ).6,$)' )7' /"#$#%"$&' ()$*"&")+' $#3' "3,#)"/+"#4' ).,' %7087#,#)(' $#3'
)6,#3('-."%.'"#%6,$(,').,'A2&#,6$*"&")+'7/').,'/"#$#%"$&'(+(),09'
:.,'86"0$6+'7*@,%)"A,'7/').,'H,876)'7#'!"#$#%"$&'G)$*"&")+'"(')7'"#/760'()$5,.7&3,6('7#').,')78"%$&'"((2,('6,&$),3')7'/"#$#%"$&'
()$*"&")+1' $#3' ).,6,*+' 6$"(,' ).,' 6"(5' $-$6,#,((' 7/' ).7(,' %7#%,6#,3' $(' -,&&' $(' 0$"#)$"#' $#3' ()6,#4).,#' %7#/"3,#%,' "#' ).,'
/"#$#%"$&'(+(),09'C%%763"#4&+1'")'"(').,';$4+$6'<,0=,)"'>$#5?('"#),#)"7#')7',#(26,').,'$A$"&$*"&")+'7/').,'"#/760$)"7#'#,,3,3'
/76'/"#$#%"$&'3,%"("7#(1'$#3').,6,*+'0$5,'$'%7#)6"*2)"7#')7'"#%6,$("#4').,'()$*"&")+'7/').,'/"#$#%"$&'(+(),0'$('$'-.7&,9'
%45&67689:5:&;7&<4;:&!5=>?<&@5?5&=?5=6?5A&B9&<45&(;767C;68&-<6B;8;<9D&(;767C;68&*7689:;:D&E>75<6?9&:<?6<5F9&67A&"C>7>G;C&
*7689:;:& 6:& @588& 6:& <45& #69G57<:& 67A& -5CH?;<;5:& -5<<85G57<:& I;?5C<>?6<5:D& H7A5?& <45& F575?68& A;?5C<;>7& >J& #K<5?& %*.LMD&
I;?5C<>?N&%45&=?>O5C<&@6:&G676F5A&B9&EP?<>7&'*Q/D&I5=H<9&R56A&>J&(;767C;68&-<6B;8;<9N&%45&!5=>?<&@6:&6==?>S5A&J>?&
=HB8;C6<;>7&B9&TU8;6&M)!L,/D&I5=H<9&Q>S5?7>?N&
#?;G6?9& C>7<?;BH<>?:& <>& <4;:& !5=>?<& ;7C8HA5& THA;<& *'%*,D& %6GP:& .*,L-D& LAPG& .*'*)D& IP7;58& R$E$,/*D& *7A?P:&
RVI"+WD&'>?B5?<&EN&M)--D&"G5:5&MV!V+D&E;X8Y:&,V-#*/D&W>8<P7&E$,'L!D&EP?<>7&'*Q/D&!;<6&$I$!L'D&W:>8<&
$8P4D&THA;<&#L,"-D&!YB5?<&-W"Q"I)D&.K86&-WZ!()&67A&":[<5?&%*'*)N&$<45?&C>7<?;BH<>?:&<>&<45&B6CXF?>H7A&67689:5:&;7&
<4;:&!5=>?<&;7C8HA5&Q5?F589&(L.)L'D&#K<5?&(L/M)--D&Q9\7F9;&MZ!E"'I)D&67A&.P8;7<&%*EL-)N&
%45&!5=>?<&;7C>?=>?6<5:&<45&E>75<6?9&+>H7C;8]:&S68H6B85&C>GG57<:&67A&:HFF5:<;>7:&J>88>@;7F&;<:&G55<;7F:&>7&3^&E6?C4&
67A&31&*=?;8&1232N&R>@5S5?D&<45&!5=>?<&?5J85C<:&<45&S;5@:&>J&<45&C>7<?;BH<;7F&>?F67;:6<;>768&H7;<:&67A&A>5:&7><&75C5::6?;89&
?5J85C<&<4>:5&>J&<45&E>75<6?9&+>H7C;8&>?&<45&E'.N
%4;:&!5=>?<&;:&B6:5A&>7&;7J>?G6<;>7&;7&<45&=5?;>A&<>&31&E6?C4&1232N
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
3
Contents
Overall assessment
7
1 Money market and macroeconomic risks
11
1.1 Improving global economic outlook, risks in developed countries’ fiscal policies and in the functioning of
the credit channel
14
1.2 Domestic economic outlook and external equilibrium are improving, but high external debt still causes
vulnerability
19
2 Risks of the financial intermediary system
25
2.1 Significant decline in lending
28
2.2 Liquidity of the money market and the banking system is improving, the strong reliance on external
funding is only declining slowly
42
2.3 Deteriorating portfolio quality, growing loan restructuring
51
2.4 Low market risks
55
2.5. High profitability, strong capital position
57
2.6 Liquidity and credit risk stress tests show adequate shock-absorbing capacity
63
2.7 High returns for institutional investors
67
2.8 Low risks in the domestic payment and settlement systems
69
Appendix: Macro-prudential indicators
73
Notes to the appendix
86
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
5
Overall assessment
Vulnerability resulting from the high
net external debt and the decline in
corporate lending, which hampers
economic recovery, are key risks
"_<5?768& 5`H;8;B?;HG& ;G=?>S5A& 7><6B89D& 67A& 75<& 5_<5?768& A5B<& A5C8;75A& ;7&
122a& 6:& 6& ?5:H8<& >J& <45& :;F7;J;C67<& J;:C68& 6AOH:<G57<& ;7& ?5C57<& 956?:& 67A& 67&
;7C?56:5&;7&<45&75<&J;767C;7F&C6=6C;<9&>J&<45&=?;S6<5&:5C<>?N&R>@5S5?D&<45&4;F4&
5_<5?768& 67A& F>S5?7G57<& A5B<:D& <45& B67X;7F& :5C<>?]:& 4;F4& 8>67b<>bA5=>:;<&
?6<;>& 67A& 4>H:54>8A:]& C>7:;A5?6B85& J>?5;F7& CH??57C9& 8>67& :<>CX& C>7<;7H5& <>&
G6X5&RH7F6?9&SH875?6B85&<>&5_<5?768&:4>CX:N
$7& <45& A5G67A& :;A5D& C>?=>?6<5& 857A;7F& ;:& ?5:<?6;75A& B9& 8>@& ;7S5:<G57<&
6C<;S;<9& 67A& >789& F?6AH6889& ?;:;7F& =?>AHC<;>7D& @4;85& >7& <45& :H==89& :;A5& ;<& ;:&
?5:<?6;75A&B9&<45&8>@&85S58&>J&4>H:54>8A]:&B67X&:6S;7F:&6:&@588&6:&B67X:]&8>@&
?;:Xb<6X;7F&@;88;7F75::&AH5&<>&;7C?56:5A&8>67&8>::5:N&*:&6&?5:H8<&>J&<;F4<5?&7>7b
=?;C5&C>7A;<;>7:D&B67X:&857A&>789&<>&C>?=>?6<;>7:&@;<4&B5<<5?&C?5A;<@>?<4;75::&
<467&=?5S;>H:89D&@4;C4&;:&4;7A5?;7F&5C>7>G;C&?5C>S5?9N
Durability of the global economic
upturn remains uncertain
Q8>B68&5C>7>G;C&6C<;S;<9&<H?75A&6?>H7A&;7&G;Ab122aD&6:&<45&?5C>S5?9&J?>G&
<45& ?5C5::;>7& F><& H7A5?@69N& R>@5S5?D& ;7& <5?G:& >J& <45& :H:<6;76B;8;<9& >J& <4;:&
F?>@<4& C6H<;>7& ;:& @6??67<5A& B9& <45& J6C<& <46<& 6& :;F7;J;C67<& =6?<& >J& <45&
J6S>H?6B85&A5S58>=G57<:&;:&6<<?;BH<6B85&<>&F>S5?7G57<&:<;GH8H:N&I;:<H?B67C5:&
;7&<45&>=5?6<;>7&>J&<45&C?5A;<&C467758&G69&68:>&46G=5?&<45&5C>7>G;C&?5C>S5?9&
;7&A5S58>=5A&C>H7<?;5:N
Government debt has increased as a
result of efforts to restore financial
stability in developed countries and
may cause financing problems
E679& A5S58>=5A& C>H7<?;5:& @5?5& 6B85& <>& :<6B;8;:5& <45& JH7C<;>7;7F& >J& <45&
J;767C;68&:9:<5G&67A&<45&5C>7>G9&>789&B9&6::HG;7F&6&=>?<;>7&>J&<45&?;:X:&67A&
:;F7;J;C67<89& ;7C?56:;7F& <45;?& J;:C68& A5J;C;<& 67A& F>S5?7G57<& A5B<N& (?>G& 57Ab
122a& >7D& <45& ;7C?56:5& ;7& J;767C;7F& ?;:X:& C>7<;7H>H:89& 6AA5A& <>& <45& +I-&
:=?56A:&>J&;7A5B<5A&C>H7<?;5:N&%4;:&85A&<>&J;767C;7F&A;JJ;CH8<;5:&>S5?&<45&:4>?<&
?H7&;7&Q?55C5D&@4;85&>S5?&<45&8>7F5?&<5?G&<45&;7C?56:5&;7&<45&F>S5?7G57<&A5B<&
>J&><45?&A5S58>=5A&C>H7<?;5:&68:>&?6;:5:&:H:<6;76B;8;<9&=?>B85G:N
The credit channel has not yet
normalised
I5:=;<5& <45& <H?76?>H7A& ;7& <45& F8>B68& 5C>7>G;C& C9C85D& 857A;7F& B9& B67X:&
C>7<;7H5:&<>&A5C8;75&;7&A5S58>=5A&C>H7<?;5:N&,6?F5&B67X:&6?5&;7CH??;7F&8>::5:&
6:&6&?5:H8<&>J&=>?<J>8;>&A5<5?;>?6<;>7D&@4;C4&856A:&<>&4;F4&C>:<:&>J&JH7A;7F&67A&
6&JH?<45?&A5C8;75&;7&85S5?6F5&C>G=6?5A&<>&=?5bC?;:;:&85S58N&)7&<5?G:&>J&857A;7F&
A5C;:;>7:& 67A& <45& ?5F;>768& 688>C6<;>7& >J& JH7A:D& ;<& G69& B5C>G5& ;7C?56:;7F89&
;G=>?<67<& @457& 67A& 4>@& 86:<;7F& F?>@<4& :<6?<:& ;7& ;7A;S;AH68& :5C<>?:& 67A&
C>H7<?;5:D&67A&J?>G&@457&C8;57<:]&C?5A;<&`H68;<9&@;88&B5F;7&<>&;G=?>S5N
Domestic growth prospects and
external equilibrium are improving,
but the economy is still vulnerable
due to the high external and
government debt
)G=?>S;7F&5_<5?768&A5G67A&46A&6&J6S>H?6B85&5JJ5C<&>7&RH7F6?9]:&5C>7>G;C&
=5?J>?G67C5&6:&@588N&*<&<45&:6G5&<;G5D&A>G5:<;C&A5G67A&:<;88&:4>@:&J5@&:;F7:&
>J&?5C>S5?;7FN&*88&>J&<4;:&46:&C>7<?;BH<5A&<>&6&:<?>7F&;G=?>S5G57<&;7&5_<5?768&
5`H;8;B?;HGN& c;<4& <45& A5C8;75& ;7& <45& A5=57A57C9& >7& J>?5;F7& JH7A;7F& 75<&
5_<5?768&A5B<&46:&68:>&A5C?56:5AD&BH<&?5G6;7:&4;F4&;7&?5F;>768&C>G=6?;:>7D&
856S;7F&RH7F6?9&SH875?6B85&<>&5_<5?768&:4>CX:N
Corporations’ and households’ net
financing capacity may remain
positive further as well
#?5:HG6B89& 6:& 6& ?5:H8<& >J& <45& H7C5?<6;7& F?>@<4& 67A& ;7C>G5& =?>:=5C<:D& <45&
A5C8;75&;7&<45&=?;S6<5&:5C<>?]:&C>7:HG=<;>7&67A&;7S5:<G57<&46:&B557&:<?>7F5?&
<467& <45& A5C8;75& ;7& ;<:& ;7C>G5N& +>7:5`H57<89D& 75<& :6S;7F:& 46S5& ;7C?56:5A&
C>7:;A5?6B89D& G6;789& ;7& <45& C>?=>?6<5& :5C<>?N& R>H:54>8A]:& >H<:<67A;7F&
6G>H7<& >J& 8>67:& 46:& A5C8;75A& >789& G;8A89D& @4;85& <45;?& J;767C;68& 6::5<:& 46S5&
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
7
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
;7C?56:5AN& R>@5S5?D& <45& ;7C?56:5& ;7& J;767C;68& 6::5<:& 46:& J68857& :4>?<& >J& <45&
G6F7;<HA5& =?5C5A;7F& <45& C?;:;:D& @4;C4& 6AA:& <>& <45& 8>7Fb<5?G& :H:<6;76B;8;<9&
?;:X&>J&5C>7>G;C&F?>@<4N&%45&=?;S6<5&:5C<>?]:&75<&:6S;7F:&=>:;<;>7&G69&?5G6;7&
;7&=86C5&;7&<45&JH<H?5N&
8
The banking sector’s loan-to-deposit
ratio remains high, and may decline
further
c;<4& <45& =?;S6<5& :5C<>?]:& ;G=?>S;7F& 75<& J;767C;7F& C6=6C;<9D& <45& 8>67b<>b
A5=>:;<&?6<;>&>J&<45&A>G5:<;C&B67X;7F&:5C<>?&A5C8;75A&;7&122aN&R>@5S5?D&<45&
CH??57<& 85S58& >J& <45& 8>67b<>bA5=>:;<& ?6<;>& 67A& 6CC>?A;7F89& A5=57A57C5& >7&
J>?5;F7& JH7A;7F& C>7<;7H5& <>& B5& 4;F4& ;7& ;7<5?76<;>768& C>G=6?;:>7N& %45&
A5=57A57C5&>J&<45&B67X;7F&:5C<>?&>7&J>?5;F7&JH7A;7F&G69&C>7<;7H5&<>&A5C8;75&
;7&=6?68858&@;<4&<45&=?;S6<5&:5C<>?]:&75<&:6S;7F&=>:;<;>7N&
The tight non-price credit conditions
hinder corporate lending
considerably, and thus slow down
economic recovery
I>G5:<;C&C>?=>?6<5&8>67:&A5C8;75A&B9&dNe&=5?&C57<&;7&122aN&-86CX&A5G67A&J>?&
8>67:& C6H:5A& B9& <45& ?5C5::;>7& =8695A& 6& :;F7;J;C67<& ?>85& ;7& <45& :<?>7F5?& <467&
5_=5C<5A& A5C8;75& ;7& C>?=>?6<5& 857A;7FN& R>@5S5?D& ;7& 6AA;<;>7& <>& A5G67A&
J6C<>?:D& :H==89& C>7:<?6;7<:& 68:>& 4;7A5?5A& 857A;7FN& )7& S;5@& >J& <45& H7C5?<6;7&
F?>@<4&=?>:=5C<:&67A&8>67&8>::5:D&@4;C4&6?5&5_=5C<5A&<>&A5C8;75&>789&:8>@89D&
B67X:]& ?;:Xb<6X;7F& @;88;7F75::& ;:& 5_=5C<5A& <>& ?5G6;7& 8>@& H7<;8& 5C>7>G;C&
?5C>S5?9&:<?57F<457:N&%4;:&C>7<?;BH<5:&F?56<89&<>&<45&=5?:;:<57C5&>J&<;F4<&7>7b
=?;C5& C?5A;<& C>7A;<;>7:f& <45?5J>?5D& B67X:& 857A& >789& <>& C8;57<:& @;<4& B5<<5?&
C?5A;<@>?<4;75::& <467& ;7& <45& =6:<N& +>7:5`H57<89D& 6& :HB:<67<;68& ;7C?56:5& ;7&
C>?=>?6<5&8>67:&;:&>789&5_=5C<5A&J?>G&1233&>7N
The decline in corporate lending
may be reduced by risk sharing
%45& =5?:;:<57C5& >J& <45& C>?=>?6<5& 857A;7F]:& :H==89& C>7:<?6;7<:& G69& :8>@& <45&
?5C>S5?9& ;7& <45& 5C>7>G9D& @4;C4& 6JJ5C<:& <45& A5S58>=G57<:& ;7& C>?=>?6<;>7:]&
:>8S57C9D&67A&<4H:&G69&?5:H8<&;7&6&JH?<45?&A5<5?;>?6<;>7&;7&B67X:]&=>?<J>8;>:N&
%45& J;767C;7F& C>7A;<;>7:& >J& G;C?>D& :G688& 67A& G5A;HG& 57<5?=?;:5:& C67& B5&
G6A5&G>?5&6AS67<6F5>H:&B9&<6X;7F&>S5?&=6?<&>J&B67X:]&?;:X:N&(;:C68&=>8;C9&C67&
;7<5?S575& 5JJ;C;57<89& B9& JH?<45?& ;G=?>S;7F& >J& <45& :<6<5& FH6?67<55& C>7A;<;>7:&
67A&8>67&5_<57:;>7&@;<4&;7<5?5:<&:HB:;A;5:N&
Tight household credit conditions
help reduce of risks of overindebtedness
%45&S>8HG5&>J&8>67:&<>&4>H:54>8A:&A5C8;75A&B9&3N1&=5?&C57<&;7&122aN&)7&<45&
C6:5&>J&J>?5;F7&CH??57C9&G>?<F6F5&8>67:D&;<&@6:&G6;789&=?;C5&C>7A;<;>7:&@4;C4&
@5?5&<;F4<575Af&=6?<;CH86?89&AH5&<>&<45&:4;J<&J?>G&-@;::&J?67C&<>&5H?>&857A;7FN&
'>7b=?;C5& C>7A;<;>7:& <;F4<575A& <>& 6& :G688& 5_<57<& 6:& =69G57<b<>b;7C>G5&
?5`H;?5G57<:&B5C6G5&4;F45?&67A&<45&8>67b<>bS68H5&?6<;>&A?>==5AN&%45&A5C8;75&
;7& -@;::& J?67C& A57>G;76<5A& 857A;7F& 67A& ;7& 857A;7F& @;<4& 5_C5::;S589& 8>>:5&
C>7A;<;>7:&?5AHC5:&<45&?;:X:&;7&<45&J;767C;68&:9:<5GN&*7&H=:@;7F&;7&857A;7F&<>&
4>H:54>8A:&;:&5_=5C<5A&@;<4&67&;G=?>S5G57<&;7&86B>H?&G6?X5<&A5S58>=G57<:&
:<6?<;7F&J?>G&1233N
Forint lending to households may
gain ground within new loans
c;<4;7& G>?<F6F5& 8>67:D& @4;C4& C>7:<;<H<5& 6& 86?F5& =>?<;>7& ;7& 857A;7F& <>&
4>H:54>8A:D& J>?5;F7& CH??57C9& 8>67:& C>7<;7H5& <>& =869& 6& A5<5?G;7;7F& ?>85N& *<&
<45&:6G5&<;G5D&@;<4&<45&6==56?67C5&>J&J>?;7<&8>67:&<46<&6?5&GHC4&8>@5?&=?;C5A&
<467&56?8;5?D&<45&:46?5&>J&J>?;7<bA57>G;76<5A&8>67:&G69&;7C?56:5&C>7:;A5?6B89&
@;<4;7&75@&857A;7F&;7&<45&756?&JH<H?5N&R>@5S5?D&;7&<45&C6:5&>J&5_;:<;7F&8>67:D&
<45&A5C8;75&;7&<45&=?>=>?<;>7&>J&J>?5;F7&CH??57C9&8>67:&G69&B5&GHC4&:8>@5?D&
6:&<45&A;JJ5?57C5&B5<@557&;7<5?5:<&?6<5:&>7&>H<:<67A;7F&J>?5;F7&CH??57C9&8>67:&
67A& >7& 75@89& 5_<57A5A& J>?;7<& 8>67:& C>7<;7H5:& <>& B5& :;F7;J;C67<D& 67A& <45&
?5G6;7;7F&G6<H?;<9&>J&<45&C>7<?6C<:&;:&3g&956?:&>7&6S5?6F5N&
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
$h"!*,,&*--"--E"'%
Promoting a sound structure of
lending to households in terms of
denomination and credit conditions
is a key issue
%45& F>S5?7G57<& A5C?55& >7& =?HA57<& 857A;7F& 6A>=<5A& 6<& <45& ;7;<;6<;S5& >J& <45&
E'.& G69& :<?57F<457& J;767C;68& :<6B;8;<9& B9& =?5S57<;7F& 5_C5::;S5& 56:;7F& >J&
C?5A;<&C>7A;<;>7:&67A&5_C5::;S5&J>?5;F7&CH??57C9&;7A5B<5A75::&>J&4>H:54>8A:N&
(>?;7<&A57>G;76<5A&G>?<F6F5&857A;7F&;:&57467C5A&B9&<45&=?>F?6GG5&6;G;7F&
6<&<45&A5S58>=G57<&>J&<45&G>?<F6F5&B>7A&G6?X5<D&6:&6&J;?:<&585G57<&>J&@4;C4&
<45&E'.&BH9:&J>?;7<&G>?<F6F5&B>7A:&;7&<45&=?;G6?9&67A&:5C>7A6?9&G6?X5<:N&
%45&.67X&68:>&;7;<;6<5A&6&:<HA9&>J&@;A57;7F&<45&:C>=5&>J&=><57<;68&G>?<F6F5&
B>7A&;::H5?:D&@4;C4&857F<457&<45&G6<H?;<9&>J&B67X&JH7A;7FD&67A&:<?57F<457&
<45&JH7C<;>7;7F&>J&<45&G6?X5<&B9&;7C?56:;7F&;::H67C5&S>8HG5:N&%45&;7;<;6<;S5&
?5F6?A;7F& <45& A5S58>=G57<& >J& G>?<F6F5& 8>67& =?>AHC<:& ;:& 6;G5A& 6<& G6X;7F&
<45:5&=?>AHC<:&G>?5&<?67:=6?57<&67A&6<&57467C;7F&<45&;7<5?5:<&?6<5&C467758&>J&
G>75<6?9&=>8;C9&<?67:G;::;>7N
The domestic financial system has
ample liquidity, but long-term
liabilities continue to be tight and
expensive
M59&A>G5:<;C&J;767C;68&G6?X5<:&:<6B;8;:5A&F?6AH6889&:<6?<;7F&J?>G&<45&:=?;7F&
>J&122aN&%45&(i&:@6=&G6?X5<&?5<H?75A&<>&7>?G68D&@4;85&6&:8>@5?&C>??5C<;>7&
@6:&>B:5?S5A&;7&<45&:=><&J>?5;F7&CH??57C9&67A&F>S5?7G57<&:5CH?;<;5:&G6?X5<:D&
67A&<45&8;`H;A;<9&>J&<45&H7C>S5?5A&>S5?7;F4<&;7<5?B67X&G6?X5<&?5C>S5?5A&>789&
=6?<;6889N& '><& >789& G6?X5<& BH<& B67X& JH7A;7F& 8;`H;A;<9& ;G=?>S5A& 6:& @588D&
<467X:&<>&<45&E'.]:&8;`H;A;<9&;7C?56:;7F&G56:H?5:D&=6?57<&B67X:]&J;767C;7F&
C>GG;<G57<D&<45&;7C?56:5&;7&<45&J>?5;F7&CH??57C9&J;767C;7F&>J&<45&F>S5?7G57<&
A5B<&67A&C467F5:&;7&<45&B67X;7F&:5C<>?]:&857A;7FbA5=>:;<;7F&6C<;S;<9N
Deterioration in loan portfolio
quality is significant, but more
moderate than expected
IH5& <>& <45& ?5C5::;>7D& <45& `H68;<9& >J& B><4& <45& C>?=>?6<5& 67A& <45& 4>H:54>8A&
8>67&=>?<J>8;>&A5<5?;>?6<5A&7><6B89D&68B5;<&<>&6&85::5?&5_<57<&<467&=?5S;>H:89&
5_=5C<5AN&%45&?6<;>&>J&7>7b=5?J>?G;7F&B67X&8>67:&;7C?56:5A&<>&32&=5?&C57<&;7&
<45& C6:5& >J& C>G=67;5:& 67A& <>& d& =5?& C57<& ;7& <45& C6:5& >J& 4>H:54>8A:& B9& 57Ab
122aN& )7& =6?68858& @;<4& <4;:D& <45& ?6<;>& >J& 8>67& 8>::5:& J>?& B><4& C>?=>?6<5& 67A&
4>H:54>8A&8>67:&OHG=5A&J?>G&3&=5?&C57<&;7&122d&<>&6?>H7A&1Nj&=5?&C57<&B9&
57Ab122aD& @4;C4& ;:& >789& :8;F4<89& 8>@5?& <467& >H?& J>?5C6:<N& %45& =>?<J>8;>& >J&
J;767C;68&57<5?=?;:5:&A5<5?;>?6<5A&GHC4&J6:<5?&<467&<46<&>J&B67X:k&<45&?6<;>&>J&
7>7b=5?J>?G;7F&8>67:&;7C?56:5A&J?>G&j&=5?&C57<&<>&6B>S5&33&=5?&C57<D&@4;85&
<45&8>67&8>::&?6<5&?>:5&J?>G&3Nj&=5?&C57<&<>&756?89&eNj&=5?&C57<&;7&122aN&
Household loan portfolio quality
may improve more slowly than the
corporate loan portfolio
(>?& 1232& R1& @5& 68?56A9& 5_=5C<& :8;F4<& F?>@<4& ;7& <45& RH7F6?;67& 5C>7>G9N&
*CC>?A;7F89D& <45& 8>67& 8>::& ?6<5& >J& C>?=>?6<5& 8>67:& G69& =56X& ;7& 1232& R3D&
B5J>?5&:<6?<;7F&<>&A5C8;75N&%45&;7C?56:5&;7&<45&H75G=8>9G57<&?6<5&G69&:8>@&
A>@7&;7&56?89&1232D&F?>@;7F&>789&:8;F4<89&J?>G&<45&G;AA85&>J&<45&956?D&67A&
<45& A5C8;75& ;7& ?568& ;7C>G5& G69& 68:>& A5C585?6<5N& '5S5?<4585::D& AH5& <>&
:HB:<67<;68&8>67&?5:<?HC<H?;7FD&<45&`H68;<9&>J&<45&4>H:54>8A&8>67&=>?<J>8;>&C67&
;G=?>S5& >789& :8>@89D& 67A& @5& 5_=5C<& <45& 8>67& 8>::& ?6<5& <>& A5C8;75& >789&
G>A5?6<589&J?>G&1232&R1&>7N&
Restructuring of loans contributes to
the restoration of clients’ solvency
only in the case of a temporary
economic recession
.9&?5:<?HC<H?;7F&8>67:&67A&<5G=>?6?;89&?5AHC;7F&A5B<&BH?A57:&B67X:&6?5&6B85&
<>&;G=?>S5&C8;57<:]&:>8S57C9&67A&?5AHC5&8>67&8>::5:N&*J<5?&<45&F?6C5&=5?;>AD&
4>@5S5?D&<45&A5B<&BH?A57&;7C?56:5:&:;F7;J;C67<89&6F6;7D&67A&G69&5S57&5_C55A&
<45& 85S58:& <46<& @5?5& <9=;C68& B5J>?5& <45& ?5:<?HC<H?;7FN& *& A5B<>?& C67& =69& <4;:&
BH?A57& >789& ;J& 4;:& ;7C>G5& =>:;<;>7& ;G=?>S5:N& *CC>?A;7F89D& ?5:<?HC<H?;7F&
?5AHC5:& <45& =?5::H?5& >7& B67X:]& =?>J;<:& >789& ;7& 6& <5G=>?6?9& ?5C5::;>7N&
R>@5S5?D& ;7& <45& 5S57<& >J& 6& 85::& B57;F7& :C576?;>& <467& <45& G6C?>5C>7>G;C&
B6:58;75&=6<4D&;N5N&6&=?><?6C<5A&A5C8;75&>?&=5?G6757<89&8>@&5C>7>G;C&F?>@<4D&
<45&J6S>H?6B85&5JJ5C<:&>J&?5:<?HC<H?;7F&@;88&7><&G6<5?;68;:5N
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
9
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
10
Despite high loan losses, Hungarian
banks’ profitability is considerable
%45&B67X;7F&:5C<>?]:&=?5b<6_&=?>J;<&6G>H7<5A&<>&RV(&g2^&B;88;>7&;7&122aD&H=&
j& =5?& C57<& >7& 122dD& @4;85& J;767C;68& 57<5?=?;:5:& ?5C>?A5A& 8>::5:& >J& 6?>H7A&
RV(&33&B;88;>7&;7&122aN&%45&=?5b<6_&=?>J;<&>J&<45&B67X;7F&:5C<>?D&@4;C4&;:&
GHC4&B5<<5?&<467&>H?&56?8;5?&=?>O5C<;>7D&;:&=?;G6?;89&5_=86;75A&B9&:;F7;J;C67<&
?5S57H5:&J?>G&J;767C;68&>=5?6<;>7:N&%45&3&=5?&C57<&=?5b<6_&!$*&67A&3g&=5?&
C57<&!$"&;7A;C6<>?:&6?5&68G>:<&:;G;86?&<>&<45&S68H5:&>J&122dN&%45&A;:<?;BH<;>7&
>J&=?>J;<6B;8;<9&@;<4;7&<45&B67X;7F&:5C<>?&@6:&6:9GG5<?;CD&<45&:46?5&>J&B67X:&
@;<4&8>@&=?>J;<6B;8;<9&;7C?56:5AN&c5&C>7:;A5?&<45&4;F4&?5S57H5:&J?>G&J;767C;68&
>=5?6<;>7:&6:&6&>75b>JJ&J6C<>?N&%45?5J>?5D&;7&1232&B67X:&@;88&B5&6B85&<>&>JJ:5<&
<45&=?>J;<&?5AHC;7F&5JJ5C<&>J&4;F4&8>67&8>::5:&>789&B9&;7C?56:;7F&<45;?&857A;7F&
6C<;S;<9&67Al>?&B9&@;A57;7F&<45&;7<5?5:<&G6?F;7N&%45?5&;:&68?56A9&67&5_6G=85&
J>?& <45& 86<<5?k& A5:=;<5& <45& A5C8;75& ;7& JH7A;7F& C>:<:& B67X:& 6?5& X55=;7F& <45&
857A;7F&;7<5?5:<&?6<5:&J>?&5_;:<;7F&4>H:54>8A&C8;57<:&4;F4N&
The banking sector’s capital position
is adequate
.67X:]&C6=;<68&=>:;<;>7&;:&6A5`H6<5f&<45&C6=;<68&6A5`H6C9&?6<;>&;7C?56:5A&J?>G&
33&=5?&C57<&6<&57Ab122d&<>&31Na&=5?&C57<&6<&57Ab122aN&E6;789&<45&A5C8;75&;7&
857A;7F&6C<;S;<9D&6HA;<;7F&<45&=?>J;<&AH?;7F&<45&956?&67A&C6=;<68&;7C?56:5:&B9&
=6?57<&B67X:&C>7<?;BH<5A&<>&<4;:&;7C?56:5N&%45&G6?X5<&:46?5&>J&B67X:&@;<4&6&
8>@5?D&dm32&=5?&C57<&C6=;<68&6A5`H6C9&?6<;>&A5C8;75AN&
Based on liquidity and credit risk
stress tests, banks resilience to
shocks is adequate
%45& 8;`H;A;<9& :<?5::& <5:<& :4>@:& <46<& B67X:]& 8;`H;A;<9& ?5:5?S5:& 6?5& :HJJ;C;57<&
5S57&;7&<45&5S57<&>J&:;GH8<675>H:&>CCH??57C5&>J&:;F7;J;C67<&J;767C;68&G6?X5<&
<H?BH857C5:D&A5=>:;<&@;<4A?6@68&67A&67&5_C467F5&?6<5&:4>CXN&*:&6&?5:H8<&>J&
<45&B67X;7F&:5C<>?]:&4;F4&C6=;<68&6A5`H6C9D&;7&<45&B6:58;75&:C576?;>&<45?5&;:&
7>& 755A& J>?& C6=;<68& ;7C?56:5:N& )7& <45& :<?5::& :C576?;>D& 6& =?><?6C<5A& 5C>7>G;C&
?5C5::;>7&G69&;7C?56:5&8>67&8>::5:D&67A&<4H:&<45&755A&J>?&6&C6=;<68&;7O5C<;>7&>J&
RV(&ejmj2&B;88;>7&n"V!&3o2b3a2&G;88;>7p&C>H8A&6?;:5&@4;C4&;:&8>@5?&<467&;7&
<45&'>S5GB5?&122a&:<?5::&<5:<N
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
2''A583@'B;6C37';8D'B;<653<585B:<'6:>C>
E$'"/&E*!M"%&*'I&E*+!$"+$'$E)+&!)-M-
I#'$2)20#'JKKL').,'4&7*$&',%7#70+'6,$%.,3'$')26#"#4'87"#)1'
0$"#&+'$('$'6,(2&)'7/',M8$#("A,'07#,)$6+'$#3'/"(%$&'87&"%",(1'
$#3'6,%7A,6+'-$('/,&)'"#'$&07()'$&&'3,A,&78,3'6,4"7#(9'I#').,'
3,A,&78,3' %72#)6",(1' ).,' %7()(' 7/' ()$*"&"("#4' ).,' /"#$#%"$&'
(+(),0' $#3' ).,' ,%7#70+' .$A,' &,3' )7' $' 6$8"3' "#%6,$(,' "#'
47A,6#0,#)'3,*)1',M$%,6*$)"#4'/"#$#%"#4'6"(5('$#3'"#%6,$("#4'
).,'%.$#%,(').$)'$#7).,6'%7#/"3,#%,'%6"("('-"&&',628)9'N,(8"),'
).,' )26#$672#3' "#' ).,' 4&7*$&' ,%7#70"%' %+%&,1' *$#5' &,#3"#4'
%7#)"#2,(')7'3,%&"#,1'32,'"#'&$64,'8$6)')7'*$#5(?'-,$5'$*"&")+'
)7'&,#3'$#3'&7-'6"(5')7&,6$#%,9'C%%763"#4&+1'O2,()"7#('6,0$"#'
$(')7'.7-'326$*&,').,'4&7*$&'6,%7A,6+'-"&&'*,9
$33")"7#' )7' ,M),6#$&' 3,0$#3' /$%)76(9' N70,()"%' 3,0$#3' "('
&$64,&+'"#/&2,#%,3'*+').,'"#),6$%)"7#'*,)-,,#'%.$#4,('"#').,'
86"A$),' (,%)76?(' %7#(208)"7#Q($A"#4' 87(")"7#' $#3' *$#5(?'
*$&$#%,' (.,,)' $3@2()0,#)9' I#' JKKL1' ).,' 86"A$),' (,%)76?(' #,)'
/"#$#%"#4'%$8$%")+'"#%6,$(,3'(.$68&+1'0$"#&+'$('$'6,(2&)'7/').,'
&$64,6E).$#E,M8,%),3' /$&&' "#' *7667-"#49' :.,' /"#$#%"$&' $((,)('
7/' )."(' (,%)76' .7-,A,6' 7#&+' "#%6,$(,3' (&"4.)&+1' %708$6,3' )7'
86,A"72('+,$6(9
RM),6#$&',O2"&"*6"20'"('"0867A"#41'$#3',M),6#$&'3,*)'$('$'
867876)"7#'7/'SNT'"('3,%&"#"#49'>+'"#),6#$)"7#$&'()$#3$63(1'
.7-,A,61' ).,' &,A,&' 7/' )7)$&' 3,*)' "(' ()"&&' ."4.1' $#3' )."('
P").' 6,4$63' )7' F2#4$6+?(' ,%7#70"%' 467-).1' 8,6("(),#)&+' %7#)"#2,(' )7' *,' ).,' 0$"#' (726%,' 7/' ).,' %72#)6+?('
-,$5' 370,()"%' 3,0$#3' "(' $&(7' $#' "0876)$#)' 6"(5' /$%)761' "#' A2&#,6$*"&")+9
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
13
1.1 Improving global economic outlook, risks in
developed countries’ fiscal policies and in the
functioning of the credit channel
G"#%,'JKKL'UJ1'3,A,&78,3'07#,+'0$65,)('.$A,'*,,#'0$65,3' Chart 1-1
*+'/$A726$*&,'&"O2"3")+'%7#3")"7#(9'C')26#"#4'87"#)'-$('$&(7' Changes in TED spreads and risk indicators
7*(,6A,3'"#'6,$&',%7#70"%'3,A,&780,#)('"#'JKKL'UV9'I)'-$('
;<=*23&)"-2
0$"#&+'%,#)6$&'*$#5'$#3'47A,6#0,#)'0,$(26,(').$)'6,(2&),3'
.6:;:&=>;7<
.6:;:&=>;7<
122
122
"#' ).,(,' 87(")"A,' )6,#3(1' $#3' -").36$-$&' 7/' ).,(,' 0,$(26,('
3oj
3oj
0$+' &,$3' )7' $' .$&)' "#' ).,' %7#(7&"3$)"7#' 7/' ).,' /"#$#%"$&'
3j2
3j2
0$65,)'$#3'"#',%7#70"%'467-).9
14
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
"H?>
a2
(5BN&32
T67N&32
I5CN&2a
'>SN&2a
$C<N&2a
-5=N&2a
TH89&2a
2
TH75&2a
2
E69&2a
1j
*=?N&2a
j2
1j
E6?N&2a
j2
(5BN&2a
oj
T67N&2a
322
oj
I>886?
>+27*+1-+0".$&2
#5?&C57<
.6:;:&=>;7<
a22
1j&(5BN&32
1d&T67N&2a
2
g3&I5CN&2a
2
g&I5CN&2a
322
j&'>SN&2a
122
32
d&$C<N&2a
g22
12
32&-5=N&2a
e22
g2
3g&*HFN2a
j22
e2
3^&TH89&2a
j2
3d&TH75&2a
^22
13&E69&2a
o22
^2
1g&*=?N&2a
d22
o2
1^&E6?N&2a
d2
1^&(5JBN&2a
!"#$%&"'()* (+,%+-+./* 0$1-+.+$12* 3&)#"+()-* +1* .4)*
-)#)($3)-* 5+1"10+"(* 6"&7).28* "1-* .4+2* 1$."'()*
+63&$#)6)1.*+2*"..&+'%."'()*.$*.4)*2%33$&.+#)*)55)0.*
$5*0)1.&"(*'"17*"1-*9$#)&16)1.*6)"2%&)2:&IH?;7F&<45&
=6:<& 468J& 956?& G>759& G6?X5<:& C>7<;7H5A& <>& 7>?G68;:5&
n+46?<& 3b3pN& %45& ;G=?>S;7F& ?5:;8;57C5& >J& <45& J;767C;68&
:9:<5G& ;7& <45& 6AS67C5A& 5C>7>G;5:& 67A& B5<<5?& 5C>7>G;C&
=5?J>?G67C5&GH<H6889&:H==>?<5A&>75&67><45?N&%45&=>:;<;S5&
A5S58>=G57<:D&4>@5S5?D&:<5GG5A&J?>G&<45&6G=85&8;`H;A;<9D&
@4;C4&C>7<;7H5A&<>&B5&=?>S;A5A&B9&C57<?68&B67X:D&<45&8>@&
;7<5?5:<& ?6<5& 57S;?>7G57<& 67A& F>S5?7G57<& :H==>?<&
G56:H?5:N& *8<4>HF4& :;F768:& J?>G& C57<?68& B67X:& ;7A;C6<5&
<46<&;7<5?5:<&?6<5:&G69&?5G6;7&6<&8>@&85S58:D&:>G5&C6H<;>H:&
<;F4<57;7F&>J&G>75<6?9&=>8;C9&46:&68?56A9&:<6?<5AN&+57<?68&
B67X:& 6?5& F?6AH6889& =46:;7F& >H<& <45& :H==89& >J& :H?=8H:&
8;`H;A;<9D& 67A& 6?5& @;<4A?6@;7F& <4;:& 8;`H;A;<9& B9& H:;7F&
=6::;S5&;7:<?HG57<:N&
322
1a&T67N&2a
1.1.1 GLOBAL ECONOMIC
PERFORMANCE IS IMPROVING,
ALTHOUGH THE UPSWING IS FRAGILE
31j
3&T67N&2a
:.,' 47A,6#0,#)' 3,*)' $#3' 6,&$),3' /"#$#%"#4' 6"(5' "#' (70,'
8,6"8.,6$&',267'$6,$';,0*,6'B72#)6",('"#%6,$(,3'("4#"/"%$#)&+9'
I#'A",-'7/').,'#20,672('%.$##,&('7/'%7#)$4"7#1',(%$&$)"7#'7/'
).,'/"(%$&'867*&,0('7/'(70,';,0*,6'B72#)6",(')7'$//,%)').,'
,#)"6,',267'$6,$'.$('%7#("3,6$*&+'"#%6,$(,3').,'%.$#%,('$'#,-'
%7#/"3,#%,' %6"("(' ,0,64"#49' C#7).,6' "0876)$#)' 867*&,0'
/$%"#4' ).,' ,267' $6,$' "(' 8,6("(),#)&+' -,$5' &,#3"#4' $%)"A")+1'
6,(2&)"#4'/670').,'."4.'&7$#'&7((,('7/'*$#5(9'N,),6"76$)"7#'7/'
).,' *$#5"#4' (,%)76?(' &7$#' 876)/7&"7' $#3' ).,' 6,(2&)"#4'
3,),6"76$)"7#' 7/' ")(' 867/")$*"&")+' 0$+' .$A,' $' (2()$"#,3'
#,4$)"A,' "08$%)' 7#' ).,' $*"&")+' )7' &,#39' :.,' *$#5(?' &7-'
-"&&"#4#,((')7')$5,'6"(5('$#3'072#)"#4',M),6#$&',M8,%)$)"7#('
6,4$63"#4'%$8")$&'$#3'&"O2"3")+'#,,3('$&(7'87"#)')7'3,&,A,6$4"#49'
N"(763,6(' "#' ).,' %6,3")' %.$##,&' ."#3,6' ).,' 7%%266,#%,' 7/' $'
(2()$"#,3',%7#70"%'6,%7A,6+9
31j
h)i&;7A5_
"V!lV-I&>75bG>7<4&;G=8;5A&S>86<;8;<9
"E.)&Q8>B68&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
<7),W').,':RN'(86,$3('$6,').,'3"//,6,#%,'*,)-,,#').,'VE07#).'"#),6*$#5'
$#3'7A,6#"4.)E"#3,M,3'(-$8'XYIGZ'"#),6,()'6$),(9
G726%,W'H,2),6(9
;4)* )0$1$6+0* %3.%&1* 4"2* '))1* * 5)(.* * +1* "(6$2.* "((*
-)#)($3)-* &)9+$128* '%.* +.2* -%&"'+(+./* &)6"+12*
,%)2.+$1"'():&*:&6&?5:H8<&>J&<45&5C>7>G;C&=>8;C9&;7C57<;S5:&
;7<5?76<;>768&5C>7>G;C&6C<;S;<9&?56C45A&6&<H?7;7F&=>;7<&;7&
G;Ab122aD& 67A& 6& ?5C>S5?9& J?>G& <45& ?5C5::;>7& :<6?<5AN& )7&
<45&<4;?A&`H6?<5?&F?>@<4&@6:&?5C>?A5A&7><&>789&;7&<45&V-&
5C>7>G9D& BH<& 68:>& ;7& <45& 5H?>& 6?56& 67A& T6=67& 6:& @588&
n+46?<& 3b1pN& "_=5C<6<;>7:& ?586<5A& <>& <45& =5?J>?G67C5& >J&
E$'"/&E*!M"%&*'I&E*+!$"+$'$E)+&!)-M-
Chart 1-2
<45&F8>B68&5C>7>G9&;G=?>S5A&G6?X5A89&;7&<45&=6:<&`H6?<5?D&
6:& ?5J85C<5A& B9& <45& G>?5& >=<;G;:<;C& J>?5C6:<& >J& G6O>?&
;7<5?76<;>768& ;7:<;<H<;>7:& n%6B85& 3b3pN& *<& <45& :6G5& <;G5D&
@56X& 86B>H?& G6?X5<& A5S58>=G57<:& 67A& :HBAH5A& 857A;7F&
6C<;S;<9& C>7<;7H5& <>& ?5=?5:57<& 6& :5?;>H:& ?;:X& J6C<>?& ;7& <45&
A5S58>=5A& 5C>7>G;5:N& )7& <5?G:& >J& <45& :H:<6;76B;8;<9& >J&
F?>@<4D&C6H<;>7&;:&68:>&@6??67<5A&B9&<45&J6C<&<46<&:>G5&>J&
<45&B57;F7&A5S58>=G57<:&6?5&?586<5A&<>&<5G=>?6?9&J6C<>?:D&
;N5N&:<?>7F5?&;7S57<>?9&A976G;C:&67A&5C>7>G;C&:<;GH8H:&>J&
<45&=?;S6<5&:5C<>?N&
Economic growth and global imbalances
1233&"
1232&"
122a&"
122d
122o
122^
122j
122e
122g
1.1.2 FISCAL PROBLEMS AND
DISORDERS IN THE BANK CREDIT
CHANNEL REPRESENT THE MAIN RISK IN
EUROPE
;4)* 0$2.2* $5* 2."'+(+2+19* .4)* 5+1"10+"(* 2/2.)6* "1-* .4)*
)0$1$6/*4"#)*()-*.$*"*&"3+-*+10&)"2)*+1*9$#)&16)1.*
-)'.* +1* <%&$3)8* )?"0)&'".+19* 5+1"10+19* &+272* "1-*
+10&)"2+19* .4)* 04"10)2* $5* "1$.4)&* 0$15+-)10)* 0&+2+2*
$00%&&+19:& IH5& <>& J688;7F& <6_& ?5S57H5:& 67A& ?;:;7F& :>C;68&
5_=57A;<H?5:&;7&<45&@6X5&>J&<45&5C>7>G;C&A>@7<H?7&6:&@588&
6:& <45& =6CX6F5:& 6;G5A& 6<& :<;GH86<;7F& <45& 5C>7>G9& 67A&
:H==>?<;7F& B67X:D& <45& J;:C68& =>:;<;>7& ;7& G679& A5S58>=5A&
C>H7<?;5:& 46:& A5<5?;>?6<5A& :;F7;J;C67<89D& 67A& <45& J;767C;7F&
?;:X:& >J& <45;?& F>S5?7G57<& A5B<& 46S5& ;7C?56:5A& n+46?<& 3bgpN&
)7<5?5:<& ?6<5:& 6?5& B5;7F& X5=<& 6<& 8>@& 85S58:& B9& C57<?68& B67X:&
67A&<4;:&57:H?5:&C456=&JH7A;7F&J>?&:<6<5:D&BH<&:;7C5&<45&57A&
>J& 122a& <45& ;7C?56:5& ;7& J;767C;7F& ?;:X:& 46:& 85A& <>& 6& :<56A9&
?;:5& ;7& +I-& :=?56A:& n+46?<& 3bep& 67A& 9;58A:& >7& 8>7Fb<5?G&
F>S5?7G57<&B>7A:&;::H5A&B9&;7A5B<5A&C>H7<?;5:N&%4;:&C67&B5&
C>7:;A5?5A&67&6CH<5&=?>B85G&;7&"H?>=5N&*&C>7J;A57C5&C?;:;:&
G69& 46S5& <45& :<?>7F5:<& 75F6<;S5& ;G=6C<& >7& <45& G>:<&
;7A5B<5A&:<6<5:D&BH<&;7A;?5C<89&;<&G69&68:>&6JJ5C<&B67X:&@;<4&
;7<5?5:<:& ;7& <45:5& C>H7<?;5:& 6:& @588& 6:& <45& G>?5& SH875?6B85&
C>H7<?;5:&<4?>HF4&<45&C>7<6F;>7&5JJ5C<:N3&*&F>>A&;7A;C6<;>7&
>J& <45& A;?5C<& 5JJ5C<& ;:& <46<& ?6<;7F& 6F57C;5:& 46S5& 68?56A9&
V*
$#"+&C>H7<?;5:
T6=67
"6:<5?7b+57<?68&"H?>=5
1233&"
1232&"
122a&"
122d
122o
122^
122j
122e
122g
G%&&)1.*"00$%1.*'"("10)*"2*"*3)&0)1."9)*$5*@=A
#5?&C57<
1221
3^
3e
31
32
d
^
e
1
2
m1
me
m^
md
m32
@=A*&)"(*9&$B.4*&".)*CDE$EDF
#5?&C57<
1221
3^
3e
31
32
d
^
e
1
2
m1
me
m^
md
m32
"H?>[>75
!5:<&>J&*:;6
+4;76
<7),W'I;!'PRY'/76,%$()9
G726%,W'I;!9
Table 1-1
Changes in forecasts for euro-area GDP growth
X$##2$&'467-).1'"#'8,6'%,#)Z
2010
2011
November
February
November
February
MNB
0.4
0.7
1.3
1.3
IMF
0.3
1
1.3
1.6
0
0.9
–
1.7
OECD
G726%,(W'I;!1'YRBN1'I;!9
1
Possible contagion channels are: revaluation of sovereign risks, exposures of banks and other resident investors to the Greek economy, a global increase in risk
premia and costs of funds, the exposure of Greek banks in other countries, and concerns about European integration and depreciation of the euro.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
15
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
Chart 1-3
Chart 1-4
Budget balances and government debt in
developed countries
5-year CDS spreads of selected countries
T6=67
122
d2
d2
^2
^2
e2
e2
12
12
2
2
)?5867A
322
-=6;7
322
#>?<HF68
T67N&32
-5=N&2a
E69&2a
T67N&2a
-5=N&2d
E69&2d
T67N&2d
e22
g22
Q?55C5
-5=N&2o
j22
Q?55C5
#>?<HF68
-=6;7
)<689
T67N&32
-5=N&2a
E69&2a
T67N&2a
-5=N&2d
E69&2d
T67N&2d
-5=N&2o
E69&2o
T67N&2j
2
T67N&2o
322
-5=N&2^
3e2
312
(?67C5
Q5?G679
^22
312
Q5?G679
VM
.6:;:&=>;7<
E69&2^
#5?&C57<
T6=67
(?67C5
T67N&2^
#5?&C57<
o22
-5=N&2j
3e2
@$#)&16)1.*-)'.
V-*
E69&2o
m3e
T67N&2o
m3e
-5=N&2^
m31
E69&2^
m32
m31
T67N&2^
m32
-5=N&2j
md
V-
md
VM
m^
"V
m^
)?5867A
me
-=6;7
m1
me
#>?<HF68
m1
Q?55C5
2
)<689
2
(?67C5
1
Q5?G679
1
.6:;:&=>;7<
E69&2j
e
122
3d2
3^2
3e2
312
322
d2
^2
e2
12
2
E69&2j
#5?&C57<
T67N&2j
e
@$#)&16)1.*'%-9).*'"("10)
#5?&C57<
RH7F6?9
G726%,W':.70(7#'N$)$()6,$09
16
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
VM
"V
)<689
<>& B5& H:5A& ;J& 6& G5GB5?& >J& <45& 5H?>& 6?56& C677><& ?6;:5&
:HJJ;C;57<&JH7A:&>7&<45&G6?X5<N&c4;8:<&<45&6F?55G57<&;<:58J&
122o
122d
122a
6JJ5C<5A& <45& J;767C;68& G6?X5<:& J6S>H?6B89D& :>S5?5;F7& A5B<&
<7),W' N$)$' %$&%2&$),3' 2("#4' RGCL[' 0,).737&74+1' $(' $' 8,6%,#)$4,' 7/' =?>B85G:& 6?5& 8;X589& <>& ?5G6;7& 6& :;F7;J;C67<& C>7C5?7& ;7& <45&
SNT9
5H?>& 6?56& J>?& :>G5& <;G5& <>& C>G5N& %45& ?;:X:& 6?5& C856?89&
G726%,W'R2678,$#'B700"(("7#1'R2678,$#'R%7#70"%'!76,%$()1'JKKL9
;88H:<?6<5A& B9& <45& J6C<& <46<D& A5:=;<5& <45& G>?5& =>:;<;S5&
:57<;G57<& ;7& <45& @6X5& >J& <45& 6F?55G57<D& Q?55C5& @6:& >789&
6B85& <>& B>??>@& >7& <45& G6?X5<& 6<& H7J6S>H?6B85& C>7A;<;>7:k&
A>@7F?6A5A&<45&A5B<&>J&Q?55C5&67A&#>?<HF68D&67A&6?5&68:>& ob956?&67A&31b956?&Q?55X&B>7A&;::H67C5:&@5?5&C46?6C<5?;:5A&
C>7:;A5?;7F& :;G;86?& :<5=:& ;7& ?586<;>7& <>& -=6;7N& #?5::H?5& >7& B9&?586<;S589&@56X&A5G67A&67A&`H;<5&4;F4&:=?56A:N
Q?55X& F>S5?7G57<& B>7A:& @6:& G;<;F6<5A& B9& 6& J6S>H?6B85&
C467F5& ;7& <45& "+.]:& C>886<5?68& J?6G5@>?XD& 6:& <45& CH??57<& >+2+19* -)'.* +1* -)#)($3)-* 0$%1.&+)2* 6"/* 4+1-)&*
G;7;GHG& C?5A;<& <4?5:4>8A& >J& ...b& @;88& ?5G6;7& ;7& =86C5& &)0$#)&/* 5&$6* .4)* 0&+2+2* $#)&* ($19)&* .)&6* "2* B)((:&
B59>7A&<45&57A&>J&1232D&G567;7F&<46<&>S5?&<45&8>7F5?&<5?G& *8<4>HF4&:>8S;7F&<45&=?>B85G&>J&Q?55C5&C67&B5&C>7:;A5?5A&
5H?>b6?56&B67X:&@;88&C>7<;7H5&<>&46S5&6CC5::&<>&C57<?68&B67X& 6:&<45&G>:<&H?F57<&;::H5&>S5?&<45&:4>?<&?H7D&<45&;7C?56:5&;7&
857A;7F& @;<4& Q?55X& F>S5?7G57<& B>7A:& 6:& C>886<5?68N& )7& F>S5?7G57<& A5B<& >J& ><45?& A5S58>=5A& C>H7<?;5:& 68:>& ?6;:5:&
6AA;<;>7D&J>88>@;7F&8>7F&75F><;6<;>7:D&<45&856A5?:&>J&<45&"V& :H:<6;76B;8;<9& =?>B85G:& >S5?& <45& 8>7F5?& <5?GN& )7C?56:5A&
67A&<45&)E(&?56C45A&67&6F?55G57<&>7&4>@&<>&458=&Q?55C5N& F>S5?7G57<& B>7A& ;::H67C5& G69& 856A& <>& F?>@<4& ;7& 9;58A:D&
%45& :H==>?<& =6CX6F5& G69& ;7S>8S5& )E(& J;767C;7FD& BH<& <45& @4;C4&G69&<?;FF5?&6&A5B<&:=;?68&;7&C>H7<?;5:&@45?5&<45&85S58&
G6O>?;<9&>J&JH7A:&@>H8A&C>G5&J?>G&"H?>=5N&)<&;:&;G=>?<67<& >J&F>S5?7G57<&;7A5B<5A75::&;:&68?56A9&4;F45?N&#?;S6<5&:5C<>?&
<>&7><5&<46<&<45&6F?55G57<&A>5:&7><&;7S>8S5&<45&5_<57:;>7&>J& J;767C;7F&G69&68:>&B5&C?>@A5A&>H<&>?&4;7A5?5A&B9&;7C?56:;7F&
6&8>67&?;F4<&7>@D&BH<&?6<45?&?5=?5:57<:&6&:H==>?<&G5C467;:GD& :H==89&>J&F>S5?7G57<&:5CH?;<;5:&;7&<45&C>G;7F&1mg&956?:N&
E$'"/&E*!M"%&*'I&E*+!$"+$'$E)+&!)-M-
2
3
2a&qg
2a&q3
2a&qg
2d&qg
2a&q3
2d&q3
2d&qg
2o&qg
2d&q3
2o&q3
2o&qg
2^&qg
2o&q3
2^&q3
2^&qg
2j&qg
2^&q3
2j&q3
2e&q3
2j&qg
2g&qg
2e&q3
2e&qg
2g&q3
2g&qg
2j&q3
21&qg
2g&q3
2e&qg
21&q3
21&qg
"H?>=5
VM
2a&qg
2a&q3
2d&qg
2d&q3
2o&qg
2o&q3
2^&qg
2^&q3
2j&qg
2j&q3
2e&q3
2g&qg
2g&q3
21&qg
2e&qg
G"3+."(*()#)&"9)
ej
e2
gj
g2
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
21&q3
I$.4* 0$&3$&".+$12* "1-* 4$%2)4$(-2* 0$1.+1%)* .$* 5"0)*
.+94.*'"17*0&)-+.*0$1-+.+$12*+1*.4)*J1+.)-*K.".)2*"1-*
.4)* )%&$* "&)":& %><68& 8>67:& <>& C>G=67;5:& 6?5& :<56A;89&
A5C8;7;7FD&@4;85&857A;7F&<>&4>H:54>8A:&;:&756?89&:<6F76<;7F&
;7& <45& V-*& 67A& <45& 5H?>& 6?56N& *8<4>HF4& 7>G;768& ;7<5?5:<&
?6<5:& >7& 8>67:& 6?5& A5C8;7;7F& F?6AH6889D& <45& 5_<57<& >J& <4;:&
A5C8;75&;:&8;G;<5A&B9&<45&J6C<&<46<&B67X:&6?5&C46?F;7F&<45;?&
CH:<>G5?:& 4;F45?& 67A& 4;F45?& C?5A;<& ?;:X& =?5G;HG:N&
E>?5>S5?D& B67X:& ;7& <45& V-*& 67A& <45& 5H?>& 6?56& 6?5& :<;88&
<;F4<57;7F& <45;?& 7>7b=?;C5& C?5A;<& C>7A;<;>7:D& 68B5;<& 6<& 6&
:8>@5?& =6C5& n+46?<& 3b^pN& (>?& :G688& 57<5?=?;:5:& 67A&
4>H:54>8A:D&;<&;:&A;JJ;CH8<&<>&:HB:<;<H<5&B67X&J;767C;7FN&)7&
<45& C6:5& >J& 86?F5& C>G=67;5:& =?5:57<& >7& >?& 57<5?;7F& <45&
C6=;<68&G6?X5<D&4>@5S5?D&<45&@5;F4<&>J&7>7bB67X&J;767C;68&
;7<5?G5A;6<;>7& ;:& ;7C?56:;7FD& 6:& <45& J;767C;7F& C>:<:& 6?5&
8>@5?&<467&J>?&B67X&J;767C;7F&n+46?<&3b^pN&%4;:&;7C?56:5&;7&
C>?=>?6<5& B>7A& ;::H67C5& ;:& B575J;C;68& J>?& B67X:& >S5?& <45&
:4>?<&?H7D&6:&<45&?586<5A&<?67:6C<;>7&J55:&6AA&<>&<45&=?>J;<:D&
BH<&>S5?&<45&8>7F5?&<5?G&<45&:=?56A&>J&7>7bB67X&J;767C;68&
;7<5?G5A;6<;>7& G69& ?5:H8<& ;7& 6& =5?G6757<& A5C8;75& ;7&
;7C>G5N
21&q3
;4)* -).)&+$&".+$1* $5* ($"1* 3$&.5$(+$2* +1* -)#)($3)-* Chart 1-5
0$%1.&/*'"17+19*2)0.$&2*6"/*4"#)*"*2%2."+1)-*1)9".+#)* Changes in return on equity, capital adequacy and
+63"0.*$1*'"172H*"'+(+./*.$*()1-8*.4)&)5$&)*-)()#)&"9+19* leverage ratios in the banking sector of the
3&$0)22*0$1.+1%)2*5%&.4)&:*#?>S;:;>7;7F&B9&86?F5&V-&67A& developed countries
5H?>b6?56&B67X:&;7C?56:5A&:;F7;J;C67<89&;7&122aD&@4;85&<45;?&
>L<
>=5?6<;>7:& 46S5& B5C>G5& 8>::bG6X;7F& n+46?<& 3bjpN& -<6?<;7F&
1j #5?&C57<
J?>G&122a&R1D&4>@5S5?D&B67X:]&8>::5:&:<6?<5A&<>&A5C8;75&AH5&
12
3j
<>&<45&J688&;7&J;767C;7F&C>:<:&67A&<45&?;:;7F&:8>=5&>J&<45&9;58A&
32
CH?S5N&%45&A5<5?;>?6<;>7&;7&<45&8>67&=>?<J>8;>&;:&5_=5C<5A&<>&
j
1D&g
?5AHC5&B67X:]&=?>J;<:&67A&C6=;<68&;7&1232&6:&@588N &*8<4>HF4&
2
86?F5&B67X:&C>7<;7H5&<>&=?>AHC5&8>::5:D&<45;?&C6=;<68&6A5`H6C9&
mj
;:& ;G=?>S;7F& n+46?<& 3bjpN& )7& <45& =5?;>A& H7A5?& ?5S;5@D& <4;:&
m32
<?57A& @6:& :H==>?<5A& B9& =6?<;7F& @;<4& ?;:X9& 6::5<:D& ?5AHC;7F&
m3j
B6867C5&:455<&<><68:&67A&;7C?56:;7F&C6=;<68N&*<&<45&:6G5&<;G5D&
C6H<;>7& ;:& @6??67<5A& B9& <45& J6C<& <46<& 68<4>HF4& C6=;<68&
6A5`H6C9&;:&;G=?>S;7F&6<&<45&:5C<>?&85S58D&G6O>?&A;JJ5?57C5:&
G"3+."(*"-),%"0/*&".+$
#5?&C57<
3d
6?5&>B:5?S5A&;7&=?>J;<6B;8;<9D&85S5?6F5&67A&C6=;<68&6A5`H6C9&
3o
6<&<45&85S58&>J&;7A;S;AH68&B67X:N&)7&<5?G:&>J&6B;8;<9&<>&857AD&
3^
3j
<45?5& 6?5& 68:>& ?;:X:& ?586<5A& <>& <45& @;<4A?6@68& >J& C57<?68&
3e
3g
B67X:]& 8;`H;A;<9b;7C?56:;7F& G56:H?5:& 67A& F>S5?7G57<& B67X&
31
FH6?67<55:D& 6:& @588& 6:& <45& 4;F45?& C6=;<68& 67A& 8;`H;A;<9&
33
32
?5`H;?5G57<:& 57S;:6F5A& ;7& ?5FH86<>?9& =867:N& )7& 857A;7F&
a
d
A5C;:;>7:D& 67& ;7C?56:;7F89& ;G=>?<67<& ?>85& ;:& =8695A& B9& <45&
o
A5S58>=G57<&>J&?;:X&6==5<;<5D&@4;C4&;:&?586<5A&<>&5_=5C<6<;>7:&
^
?5F6?A;7F& 5C>7>G;C& F?>@<4& 67A& C467F5:& ;7& 8>67& =>?<J>8;>&
`H68;<9N
V-*
<7),W' $A,6$4,(' X-,"4.),3' *+' *$&$#%,' (.,,)' )7)$&Z' %$&%2&$),3' /670' ).,'
"#3"%$)76('7/').,'\'&$64,()'*$#5('"#').,'D#"),3']"#43701').,'^['&$64,()'
*$#5(' "#' ).,' R2678,' $#3' ).,' JK' &$64,()' *$#5(' "#' ).,' DGC9' _,A,6$4,' `'
*$&$#%,'(.,,)')7)$&'a',O2")+9'B$8")$&'$3,O2$%+'6$)"7'`'$A$"&$*&,'%$8")$&'a'
6"(5E-,"4.),3'*$&$#%,'(.,,)')7)$&9':.,'3$)$'"('2#%7#(7&"3$),39
G726%,W'>&770*,649
Source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report; October 2009; www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2009/02/.
Source: ECB Financial Stability Report December 2009; www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/other/financialstabilityreview200912en.pdf.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
17
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
Chart 1-6
Lending and corporate bond issuance in the USA and the euro area
;4)*0&)-+.*0$1-+.+$12*"1-*.4)*1).*0&)-+.*5($B
12
12
g2
122
2
2
12
322
m12
m12
32
2
me2
2
m322
'5<&J8>@&>J&C>?=>?6<5&8>67:&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
'5<&J8>@&>J&4>H:54>8A&8>67:&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
+?5A;<&C>7A;<;>7:&m&C>?=>?6<5
+?5A;<&C>7A;<;>7:&m&4>H:54>8A:
G726%,(W'RB>1'!RN1'>&770*,649
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
d2
o22
o2
^22
^2
j22
j2
e22
e2
g22
T67N&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH89&2o
-5=N&2o
'>SN&2o
T67N&2d
E6?N&2d
E69&2d
TH89&2d
-5=N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
E6?N&2a
E69&2a
TH89&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
E6?N&2o
-5=N&2^
-5=N&2a
I5CN&2a
E6?N&2a
-5=N&2d
E6?N&2d
-5=N&2o
E6?N&2o
-5=N&2^
me2
-5=N&2a
I5CN&2a
e2
E6?N&2a
e2
-5=N&2d
^2
E6?N&2d
^2
'5<&r&>J&<;F4<57;7F&B67X:
V-*
-5=N&2o
d2
#5?&C57<
322
"H?>[>75
d2
322
18
;4)*"6$%1.*"1-*&)(".+#)*3&+0)*$5*0$&3$&".)
'$1-*+22%"10)2
.7&"H?
.6:;:&=>;7<
'5@&C>?=>?6<5&B>7A&;::H67C5&m&V-*
'5@&C>?=>?6<5&B>7A&;::H67C5&m&"H?>[>75
I;JJ5?57C5&B67X&67A&C>?=>?6<5&C>:<&>J&JH7A:
"H?>[>75&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
I;JJ5?57C5&B67X&67A&C>?=>?6<5&C>:<&>J&JH7A:&
V-*&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
1.2 Domestic economic outlook and external
equilibrium are improving, but high external
debt still causes vulnerability
M1.)&1".+$1"(* +1#)2.$&* 2)1.+6)1.* 4"2* 3("/)-* -)0+2+#)*
&$()*+1*.4)*-)#)($36)1.2*$5*G)1.&"(*<"2.)&1*<%&$3)"1*
"22).*3&+0)28*B4+()*".*.4)*2"6)*.+6)8*.4)*&)(".+#)*&+27*
"22)226)1.*$5*.4)*&)9+$1*+63&$#)-:&IH?;7F&<45&=6:<&468J&
956?D&<45&<?57A:&>7&<45&?5F;>7]:&J;767C;68&G6?X5<:D&;7C8HA;7F&
(5BN&32
T67N&32
I5CN&2a
'>SN&2a
-5=N&2a
*HFN&2a
TH89&2a
TH75&2a
E69&2a
*=?N&2a
E6?N&2a
T67N&2a
I5CN&2d
'>SN&2d
$C<N&2d
-5=N&2d
RH7F6?9
+?>6<;6
!>G67;6
+""E"*&->S_
3d&(5BN&32
e&(5BN&32
13&T67N&32
o&T67N&32
1e&I5CN&2a
32&I5CN&2a
1^&'>SN&2a
.6:;:&=>;7<
31&'>SN&2a
e22
goj
gj2
g1j
g22
1oj
1j2
11j
122
3oj
3j2
*HFN&2d
.6:;:&=>;7<
a22
d22
o22
^22
j22
e22
g22
122
322
2
1a&$C<N&2a
1.2.1 INVESTORS’ SENTIMENT ON
HUNGARY IMPROVED COMPARED TO
OTHER COUNTRIES
5-year CDS spreads of selected countries of the
region
3j&$C<N&2a
:.,' 3"A,64,#)' )6,#3(' "#' 370,()"%' $#3' ,M),6#$&' 3,0$#3'
6,(2&),3' "#' $' ()67#4' $3@2()0,#)' 7/' F2#4$6+?(' ,M),6#$&'
87(")"7#'&$()'+,$69'I#'&"#,'-").').,'"0867A,0,#)'"#',M),6#$&'
,O2"&"*6"201' F2#4$6+?(' 72)()$#3"#4' 3,*)' "(' 3,%&"#"#4'
46$32$&&+1' *2)' ")(' &,A,&' %7#)"#2,(' )7' *,' ."4.' "#' 6,4"7#$&'
%708$6"(7#9':.,'."4.'67&&7A,6'6"(5'7/').,',M),6#$&'/"#$#%"#4'
7/' ).,' ()$),' $#3' ).,' *$#5"#4' (,%)76' %7#)"#2,(' )7' 0$5,'
F2#4$6+'A2&#,6$*&,')7',M),6#$&'(.7%5(9
Chart 1-7
TH89&2d
I#'JKKL'FJ1').,'"0867A,0,#)'"#',M),6#$&'3,0$#3'$&(7'.$3'
$' /$A726$*&,' ,//,%)' 7#' ).,' 8,6/760$#%,' 7/' 370,()"%' (,%)76('
86732%"#4' /76' ,M876)9' N2,' )7' ).,' (2*()$#)"$&' 3,%&"#,' "#'
370,()"%' %7#(208)"7#' $#3' "#A,()0,#)' 3,0$#31' .7-,A,61'
)."('-$('7#&+'$*&,')7'0")"4$),').,'/$&&'"#'SNT9'YA,6').,'(.76)'
62#1' -,' ,M8,%)' )7' (,,' $' (&7-1' 46$32$&' "#%6,$(,' "#' 72)82)9'
C%%763"#4' )7' ).,' !,*62$6+' JK^K' /76,%$()' 7/' ).,' ;$4+$6'
<,0=,)"' >$#51' 72)82)' 0$+' 3,%&"#,' (&"4.)&+' "#' JK^K1' -").' $'
("4#"/"%$#)'"#%6,$(,'7#&+')$5"#4'8&$%,'"#'JK^^9'F7-,A,61').,'
0$%67,%7#70"%' *$(,&"#,' (%,#$6"7' "(' (26672#3,3' *+' 0$#+'
37-#("3,' 6"(5(1' -."%.' $6,' 0$"#&+' 6,&$),3' )7' &,((' /$A726$*&,'
).$#',M8,%),3'3,A,&780,#)('"#',M),6#$&'3,0$#39
<45& RH7F6?;67& J;767C;68& G6?X5<:D& @5?5& 5::57<;6889&
A5<5?G;75A& B9& ;7<5?76<;>768& A5S58>=G57<:N& *CC>?A;7F89D&
J8HC<H6<;>7:&;7&F8>B68&?;:X&6==5<;<5&@5?5&?5J85C<5A&;7&?5F;>768&
G6?X5<& ;7A;C6<>?:& 6:& @588k& <45& J6S>H?6B85& ;7<5?76<;>768&
57S;?>7G57<& 57<6;85A& 6& A5C8;75& ;7& ?;:X& =?5G;6& 67A& 67&
;7C?56:5&;7&5`H;<9&=?;C5:&67A&J>?5;F7b5_C467F5&?6<5:D&@4;85&
>CC6:;>768&75F6<;S5&75@:&67A&;7S5:<>?:]&@>??;5:&:<>==5A&>?&
?5S5?:5A&<45&;7C?56:5N&*<&<45&:6G5&<;G5D&C>G=6?5A&<>&><45?&
A5S58>=5A& 67A& A5S58>=;7F& C>H7<?;5:D& <45& +57<?68& "6:<5?7&
"H?>=567& ?5F;>7& @6:& 85::& 6JJ5C<5A& B9& H7J6S>H?6B85& 75@:D&
67A& <45& 5_<57<& >J& J8HC<H6<;>7:& @6:& :G6885?& <467& <46<&
3&$C<N&2a
:.,' 6"(5' $((,((0,#)' 7/' B,#)6$&' R$(),6#' R2678,$#' %72#)6",('
$#3' 3,A,&780,#)(' "#' ).,"6' $((,)' 86"%,(' .$(' 0$"#&+' /7&&7-,3'
).,' )6,#3(' "#' "#),6#$)"7#$&' "#A,()76' (,#)"0,#)9' N2,' )7' ).,'
/$A726$*&,' 3,A,&780,#)(' "#' ,O2"&"*6"201' ).,' 6,4"7#?('
(,#(")"A")+' )7' #,4$)"A,' #,-(' .$(' 3,%&"#,39' C(' $' 6,(2&)' 7/' ).,'
(2*()$#)"$&' /"(%$&' $3@2()0,#)' $#3' ).,' "0867A"#4' ,M),6#$&'
,O2"&"*6"201' (,#)"0,#)' 7#' F2#4$6+' "(' 46$32$&&+' "0867A"#41'
*2)'3,(8"),'()$*&,')6,#3('"#'$((,)'86"%,(1').,6,'$6,'#20,672('
6"(5(' )7' 370,()"%' 0$65,)' 3,A,&780,#)(9' I0876)$#)' 6"(5'
/$%)76(' "#%&23,' $' 87(("*&,' "#),6628)"7#' 7/' ).,' R2678,$#'
28(-"#41' %7#)$4"7#' ,//,%)(' "/' S6,,%,?(' 867*&,0(' *,%70,'
-76(,1'87(("*&,'/26).,6'("4#"/"%$#)'-,$5,#"#4'7/').,',267'$#3'
).,'826(2")'7/'$'()6"%)'/"(%$&'87&"%+9
.H8F6?;6
,;<4H67;6
<7),W':.,'BRR;RC'G7Ab'"('$'%7087("),'"#3,M'%$&%2&$),3'/670').,'^['
07()' &"O2"3' (7A,6,"4#' BNG' (86,$3(' 7/' ).,' ,0,64"#4' B,#)6$&' R$(),6#'
R2678,$#1';"33&,'R$()'$#3'C/6"%$#'6,4"7#9
G726%,W':.70(7#'H,2),6(9
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
19
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
5_=5?;57C5A& ;7& <45& C>H7<?;5:& <46<& @5?5& A;?5C<89& 6JJ5C<5AN&
$75&=>::;B85&H7A5?89;7F&?56:>7&G69&46S5&B557&<46<&68<4>HF4&
<45&J;:C68&=>:;<;>7&68:>&A5<5?;>?6<5A&;7&G>:<&C>H7<?;5:&;7&<4;:&
?5F;>7D& <45& G6F7;<HA5& >J& <4;:& J;:C68& A5<5?;>?6<;>7& @6:& 85::&
=?>7>H7C5A& <467& ;7& <45& A5S58>=5A& C>H7<?;5:& 67A& <4H:& <45&
?586<;S5& 6::5::G57<& <57A5A& <>& :4;J<& ;7& <45& J6S>H?6B85&
A;?5C<;>7N& -<?>7F5?& A;JJ5?57<;6<;>7& @6:& >B:5?S5A& B5<@557&
<45& =5?;=45?9& >J& <45& 5H?>& 6?56& 67A& <45& +57<?68& "6:<&
"H?>=567&?5F;>7&>7&<45&=6?<&>J&;7S5:<>?:N&*<&<45&:6G5&<;G5D&
A;JJ5?57<;6<;>7& @;<4;7& <45& ?5F;>7& >7& <45& =6?<& >J& ;7S5:<>?:&
@56X575AD& @4;C4& ;:& 68:>& @588& ;88H:<?6<5A& B9& <45& 76??>@;7F&
A;JJ5?57C5:& B5<@557& +I-& :=?56A:& n+46?<& 3bopN& %45&
;G=?>S5G57<& ;7& ?;:X& 6::5::G57<& @6:& 68:>& ?5J85C<5A& B9& <45&
:HCC5::JH8&:>S5?5;F7&5H?>B>7A&;::H5:&67A&J6S>H?6B85&C467F5:&
;7&C?5A;<&?6<;7F:&n.>_&3b3pN
=)#)($36)1.2*+1*N%19"&+"1*5+1"10+"(*6"&7).2*6$#)-*
+1*(+1)*B+.4*&)9+$1"(*.&)1-28*B4+()*.4)*2)12+.+#+./*$5*
-$6)2.+0* "22).* 3&+0)2* .$* 6"&7).* &+272* -)0(+1)-:&
)7S5:<>?:]&6<<;<HA5&<>@6?A:&RH7F6?9&;:&F?6AH6889&;G=?>S;7FD&
G6;789& AH5& <>& <45& 86?F5b:C685& J;:C68& 6AOH:<G57<& 67A& <45&
:;F7;J;C67<&;G=?>S5G57<&;7&5_<5?768&B6867C5N&%45&A5C8;7;7F&
:57:;<;S;<9& >J& A>G5:<;C& 6::5<& =?;C5:& <>& G6?X5<& ?;:X:&
?5=?5:57<:&6&:;F7;J;C67<&C467F5&C>G=6?5A&<>&56?8;5?&<?57A:N&
)7&6AA;<;>7&<>&<45&J;:C68&6AOH:<G57<&67A&;G=?>S;7F&5_<5?768&
5`H;8;B?;HGD&<4;:&@6:&68:>&B5C6H:5&<45&RH7F6?;67&5C>7>G9&
@6:& >789& ;7A;?5C<89& 6JJ5C<5A& B9& <45& H7J6S>H?6B85&
;7<5?76<;>768&A5S58>=G57<:N&-4>@;7F&?586<;S5&:<6B;8;<9D&<45&
5_C467F5&?6<5&>J&<45&J>?;7<&?5G6;75A&;7&<45&?67F5&>J&"V!l
RV(&1^2m1d2&@4;C4&46:&B557&<9=;C68&:;7C5&<45&:HGG5?&>J&
122aN& -HB:<67<;68& G>75<6?9& 56:;7F& <>>X& =86C5& ;7& <45&
C57<?68& B67X& B6:5& ?6<5D& @4;C4& A5C8;75A& B9& 6& <><68& >J& e22&
B6:;:&=>;7<:&J?>G&T67H6?9&122a&<>&E6?C4&1232N&)7A;S;AH68&
?6<5& CH<:D& 4>@5S5?D& @5?5& 8;G;<5A& <>& 1j& B6:;:& =>;7<:& J?>G&
I5C5GB5?& >7N& (>?& G>:<& >J& <4;:& =5?;>AD& <45& J;S5b956?&
RH7F6?;67& +I-& :=?56A& J8HC<H6<5A& B5<@557& 122& 67A& 1j2&
B6:;:&=>;7<:N
M1* #+)B* $5* .4)* 0$%1.&/H2* 4+94* #%(1)&"'+(+./8* .4)*
-$6)2.+0* 6"&7).* 6"/* &)"0.* 7))1(/* .$* +1.)&1".+$1"(*
5+1"10+"(* 6"&7).* .%&'%()10)2:& *8<4>HF4& ;7& G6?X5<&
67689:5:&<45&?586<;S5&67A&6B:>8H<5&;G=?>S5G57<:&;7&B6867C5&
;7A;C6<>?:&n;N5N&;7&<45&J;:C68&A5J;C;<&67A&<45&CH??57<&6CC>H7<p&
C>7<;7H5&<>&B5&=>:;<;S5&J6C<>?:&;7&RH7F6?9]:&?;:X&6::5::G57<D&
688& <4;:& G567:& >789& 8;G;<5A& =?><5C<;>7& ;7& <5?G:& >J&
SH875?6B;8;<9N&"_<5?768&67A&F>S5?7G57<&A5B<&C>7<;7H5&<>&B5&
4;F4D&A5S58>=G57<:&;7&5C>7>G;C&6C<;S;<9&6?5&@56X&C>G=6?5A&
<>&><45?&C>H7<?;5:&>J&<45&?5F;>7D&67A&H7C5?<6;7<9&?586<5A&<>&
5C>7>G;C& =>8;C9& 67& ;7C?56:;7F& @5;F4<& ;7& ;7S5:<>?:]&
6::5::G57<N&
Box 1-1: Foreign-exchange bond issues in the region and key credit rating decisions since October
2009
Driven by the mounting financing requirements stemming from
Chart 1-8
swelling budget deficits and facilitated by investors’ sustained
Relationship between the CDS spread and the
foreign-exchange bond issuing premium
favourable opinion on emerging markets, the intensive sovereign
bond issuance activity that started in the spring of 2009 has
continued in recent months. In the region in a wider sense, since
October 2009, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Poland, Lithuania,
d22
Slovakia, Slovenia and Turkey have also successfully issued bonds
o22
on the international capital markets (Table 1-2), in addition to
^22
Hungary.
j22
Overall, the issues were characterised by favourable trends, as
reflected by high demand and issue volumes and the declining yield
premia and increasing maturities. Lithuania carried out its largest
RV&n"V!p
g22
RV&nV-Ip
122
322
Croatia’s borrowing of USD 1.5 billion was also unprecedented. In
2
eurobond issue is a four-year record.
9&s&e1&t&3D13uAv+I-&t&eeuAHGG9v"E&
!w&s&2Ddo
e22
foreign-exchange bond issues ever (USD 1.5 and 2 billion), and
terms of both its maturity and size (EUR 3 billion) Poland’s fifteen-year
-=?56A&>7&J>?5;F7&CH??57C9&A57>G;76<5A&B>7A:
n6B>S5&B57C4G6?X&9;58Ap
2
j2
322 3j2 122 1j2 g22 gj2 e22 ej2 j22
+I-&:=?56A&nA>G5:<;C&S:&B57C4G6?X&C>H7<?9p
G726%,(W'>&770*,641':.70(7#'H,2),6(9
20
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
E$'"/&E*!M"%&*'I&E*+!$"+$'$E)+&!)-M-
Table 1-2
Foreign-exchange bond issues in the region
XY%)7*,6'JKKLQ!,*62$6+'JK^KZ
Issuer
Lithuania
Date
Maturity
date
Currency
Amount
(bn)
07/10/2009
15/01/2015
USD
1.5
Coupon
6.75
Spread
vs
benchmark
government
securities
(bp)
CDS
(domestic)
CDS
(benchmarkcountry)
CDS
spread
462.5
318
23
295
Poland
08/10/2009
15/10/2019
EUR
0.5
4.675
138
113
21
92
Czech Rep.
21/10/2009
23/11/2016
CHF
0.5
2.875
104
73
20
53
Croatia
29/10/2009
05/11/2019
USD
1.5
6.75
350
250
24
226
Poland
06/11/2009
13/11/2012
JPY
23.3
1.92
147
121
69
52
21.5
Poland
06/11/2009
13/11/2014
JPY
2.34
159
121
69
52
Slovakia
14/12/2009
04/03/2013
EUR
0.105
3.5
114
72
22
50
Turkey
05/01/2010
30/05/2040
USD
2
6.75
224.7
173
36
137
Poland
11/01/2010
20/01/2025
EUR
3
5.25
143
116
26
90
Slovenia
18/01/2010
26/01/2020
EUR
1.5
4.125
72
31
41
Hungary
26/01/2010
29/01/2020
USD
2
6.25
265
89.3
234
42
192
Lithuania
04/02/2010
11/02/2020
USD
2
7.375
401.7
292
57
235
G726%,(W'>&770*,641':.70(7#'H,2),6(9
In January 2010, Hungary issued foreign-exchange bonds with a value
spreads compared with euro-area countries with the same risk, i.e. a
of USD 2 billion marked by high demand and relatively narrow pricing.
similar CDS spread. According to our calculations,4 the yield spreads
There was outstanding interest for the new 10-year USD-denominated
of international bond issues since the Lehman bankruptcy can be
reference bond: offers were received in a value of USD 7 billion from
described by the following factors::a constant, a risk-dependent- and
more than 250, mostly high-quality, investors. With the issuance, the
an emerging market dummy-component.
debt manager agency fulfilled the foreign-exchange borrowing plans
for the whole year, in the amount of EUR 1.5 billion. The bond was
Spreadabove reference government security = 42 bp + 1,21*(CDS spreadissuer –
priced at 265 basis points above the 10-year USD benchmark yield.
– CDS spreadreference country )+44*dummy(EM)
Compared to the EUR-bond issued last summer, this issue had a
significantly more favourable yield premium.
Based on the relation observed, the yield premium of the Hungarian
dollar bond issue can be assessed as favourable (Chart 1-8).
The yield spread continues to exceed the differences between the
4
CDS spreads of the issuing country and the reference country.
The improving risk assessment of the Central East European region
Moreover, emerging market sovereign issuers have to pay higher
was clearly reflected in credit rating agencies’ evaluations as well
50 foreign-exchange bond issues of 17 countries were used for the calculation. In addition to international issues of the countries of the Central East European
region (Czech Republic, Croatia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia), those of other emerging markets (Brazil, South Africa, Israel
and Turkey) as well as peripheral euro area countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain) were also taken into account. For details of the estimate see: Norbert
Kiss M. and István Mák: Developments in sovereign bond issuance in the Central and East European region after the Lehman collapse, MNB Bulletin, December 2009.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
21
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
Table 1-3
Credit rating events related to countries of the region
Date
Agency
Country
Event
Direction
Rating
S&P
Hungary
Outlook change
Improvement
(BBB-) Negative to stabile
01/12/2009
S&P
Bulgaria
Outlook change
Improvement
(BBB) Negative to stabile
03/12/2009
Fitch
Turkey
Credit rating change
Improvement
BB- to BB+
02/10/2009
08/06/2010
Moody's
Turkey
Improvement
Ba3 to Ba2
21/06/2010
Moody's
Bulgaria
Outlook change
Improvement
(Baa3) Stabile to positive
25/01/2010
Fitch
Russia
Outlook change
Improvement
02/02/2010
Fitch
Romania
Outlook change
Improvement
(BB+) Negative to stabile
03/02/2010
S&P
Lithuania
Outlook change
Improvement
05/02/2010
Fitch
Estonia
Outlook change
Improvement
(BBB+) Negative to stabile
11/02/2010
S&P
Estonia
Outlook change
Improvement
(A-) Negative to stabile
12/02/2010
S&P
Latvia
Outlook change
Improvement
(BB) Negative to stabile
19/02/2010
S&P
Turkey
Improvement
BB- to BB
08/03/2010
Fitch
Lithuania
Outlook change
Improvement
10/03/2010
S&P
Romania
Outlook change
Improvement
(BB+) Negative to stabile
30/03/2010
Fitch
Estonia
Watch list
+
BBB+
G726%,(W'>&770*,641':.70(7#'H,2),6(9
(Table 1-3). Since October 2009 favourable credit rating actions
Hungary’s rating outlook was upgraded from negative to stable by
have taken place with regard to several countries in the region. The
S&P at the beginning of October 2009 (Hungary has the worst,
long-term foreign exchange debt outlook of Bulgaria, Russia,
BBB-, rating from S&P, at the bottom of the investment category.
Romania and the Baltic states was upgraded, while the debt rating
Compared with S&P, Hungary’s foreign rating is one notches higher
of Turkey was also improved by all three large agencies (by two
at Fitch (BBB) and two notches higher at Moody’s (Baa1),
notches in the case of Fitch). While maintaining the BBB- rating,
respectively.
1.2.2 SUBSTANTIAL ECONOMIC
GROWTH IS EXPECTED ONLY FOR 2011,
HIGH EXTERNAL DEBT WILL ONLY
DECLINE GRADUALLY
O2* "* 0$12),%)10)* $5* 3)&2+2.)1.(/* B)"7* -$6)2.+0*
-)6"1-8* N%19"&/H2* )0$1$6+0* &)0$#)&/* +2* $1(/*
5$(($B+19*.4)*-)#)($3)-*"1-*&)9+$1"(*0$%1.&+)2*B+.4*"*
-)("/:&-;7C5&<45&G;AA85&>J&86:<&956?D&C>7<?6C<;>7&;7&A>G5:<;C&
>H<=H<&46:&G>A5?6<5AD&@4;85&;7C?56:;7F89&7><6B85&A;S5?F57C5&
B5<@557& <45& 5_<5?768& 67A& A>G5:<;C& A5G67A& C>G=>757<:&
@6:&>B:5?S5A&;7&<45&:<?HC<H?5&>J&F?>@<4N&IH5&<>&J6S>H?6B85&
5_<5?768&5C>7>G;C&6C<;S;<9D&5_=>?<&:685:&F?6AH6889&;7C?56:5A&
J?>G& q1& >7D& @4;85& <45& F575?68& A>@7<H?7& ;7& <45& G6;7&
C>G=>757<:& >J& A>G5:<;C& A5G67A& C>7<;7H5AN& %45&
C>7:HG=<;>7& 67A& :6S;7F& B546S;>H?& >J& 4>H:54>8A:D& @4;C4&
46A& 6CCHGH86<5A& A5B<& ?6=;A89& ;7& <45& =?5bC?;:;:& 956?:D& 46:&
C467F5A& C>7:;A5?6B89& :;7C5& <45& C?;:;:& 5?H=<5AN& %45& :5C<>?]:&
C>7:HG=<;>7& 5_=57A;<H?5:& 46S5& J68857& G6?X5A89D& @4;85&
J;767C;68& :6S;7F:& m& @4;C4& 46A& =?5S;>H:89& A5C8;75A& <>&
4;:<>?;C68&8>@:&m&68?56A9&:<6?<5A&;7C?56:;7F&6F6;7&86:<&956?N&
22
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
)7&6AA;<;>7&<>&<45&F575?6889&A5<5?;>?6<;7F&;7C>G5&=>:;<;>7D&
<45& ;7<57:;J;C6<;>7& >J& =?5C6H<;>76?9& C>7:;A5?6<;>7:& ;7& 6&
G>?5&H7C5?<6;7&5C>7>G;C&57S;?>7G57<&G69&68:>&B5&B54;7A&
<45& :<?>7F& A5C8;75& ;7& C>7:HG=<;>7N& Q?>::& J;_5A& C6=;<68&
J>?G6<;>7&@6:&C46?6C<5?;:5A&B9&;7C?56:;7F89&:5S5?5&A5C8;75:&
;7&122aN&+>?=>?6<5&67A&4>H:54>8A&;7S5:<G57<&A?>==5A&>JJ&
:;F7;J;C67<89D&@4;85&;7J?6:<?HC<H?5&;7S5:<G57<&?586<5A&<>&<45&
=HB8;C&:5C<>?&J588&>789&<>&6&85::5?&5_<57<N&*:&6&?5:=>7:5&<>&<45&
C?;:;:D&;7&56?89&122a&C>G=67;5:]&C6=6C;<9&H<;8;:6<;>7&A5C8;75A&
:46?=89D&@4;85&<459&68:>&?5AHC5A&<45;?&5_;:<;7F&;7S57<>?;5:N&
*8<4>HF4& C>??5C<;>7:& @5?5& 68?56A9& >B:5?S5A& ;7& <45:5&
A5S58>=G57<:& ;7& <45& :5C>7A& 468J& >J& <45& 956?D& C>?=>?6<5&
C6=6C;<9&H<;8;:6<;>7&?5G6;7:&6<&6&4;:<>?;C6889&8>@&85S58N
;4)* -).)&+$&".+$1* +1* 0$&3$&".)* 2)0.$&* 3&$5+."'+(+./* +2*
2($B+19* -$B1:* )7& 122a& R3D& C>G=67;5:]& =?>J;<6B;8;<9&
A5<5?;>?6<5A&C>7:;A5?6B89D&=6?<;CH86?89&;7&<45&G67HJ6C<H?;7F&
:5C<>?N& %45& C>?=>?6<5& :5C<>?& 6A6=<5A& <>& <45& H7J6S>H?6B85&
G6C?>5C>7>G;C& 57S;?>7G57<& G6;789& S;6& 86B>H?& C>:<&
?5AHC<;>7:D& <45& 5_<57<& 67A& <;G;7F& >J& @4;C4& S6?;5A& J?>G&
:5C<>?&<>&:5C<>?N&)7&<45&J;?:<&468J&>J&<45&956?D&6&:46?=&A5C8;75&
E$'"/&E*!M"%&*'I&E*+!$"+$'$E)+&!)-M-
Chart 1-9
Annual and quarterly changes in GDP
X(,$(7#$&&+'$3@2(),3'3$)$1'8,6'%,#)Z
#5?&C57<
22&q3
22&qg
23&q3
23&qg
21&q3
21&qg
2g&q3
2g&qg
2e&q3
2e&qg
2j&q3
2j&qg
2^&q3
2^&qg
2o&q3
2o&qg
2d&q3
2d&qg
2a&q3
2a&qg
32&q3
32&qg
33&q3
33&qg
32 #5?&C57<
d
^
e
1
2
m1
me
m^
md
m32
*77H68
1Nj
1N2
3Nj
3N2
2Nj
2N2
m2Nj
m3N2
m3Nj
m1N2
m1Nj
qH6?<5?89&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
<7),W'JK^KQJK^^';<>'/76,%$()9
G726%,W';<>9
:<6?<;7F&J?>G&122d&qe&@6:&?5J85C<5A&;7&B><4&6&:;F7;J;C67<&J688&
;7&<45&7HGB5?&>J&5G=8>95A&67A&6&A5C8;75&;7&@6F5&A976G;C:N&
V75G=8>9G57<& ?>:5& <>& 6& ?6<5& 7><& :557& :;7C5& 3aajN& $7& <45&
@4>85D&<45&F>S5?7G57<&G56:H?5:&<46<&46S5&B557&;7<?>AHC5A&
68:>& 57<6;85A& 6& A5C8;75& ;7& 4>H:54>8A& ;7C>G5N& )7& <45& :5C<>?:&
<46<& 6?5& ;G=>?<67<& ;7& <5?G:& >J& 4>H:54>8A:]& 57<?5=?575H?;68&
;7C>G5:& n?568& 5:<6<5D& 6F?;CH8<H?5D& <?6A5D& C>7:<?HC<;>7&
;7AH:<?9pD&7>&J6S>H?6B85&:4;J<&C67&B5&5_=5C<5A&>S5?&<45&:4>?<&
?H7& 5;<45?N& IH?;7F& <45& C?;:;:& =5?;>AD& ;7C>G5& ?568;:5A& >7&
J;767C;68& @568<4& 46:& 68:>& A5C8;75AN& $S5?688& 4>H:54>8A&
;7C>G5&;:&5_=5C<5A&<>&?;:5&>789&J?>G&1233N
O*2($B8*9&"-%"(*+10&)"2)*+1*$%.3%.*+2*)?3)0.)-*$#)&*.4)*
24$&.* &%1:& I>G5:<;C& QI#& J588& B9& ^Ng& =5?& C57<& ;7& 122aN&
*CC>?A;7F&<>&<45&(5B?H6?9&J>?5C6:<&>J&<45&E6F96?&'5G[5<;&
.67XD&>H<=H<&G69&A5C8;75&B9&67><45?&2N1&=5?&C57<&;7&1232D&
@;<4& 6& :;F7;J;C67<& ;7C?56:5& >789& <6X;7F& =86C5& ;7& 1233&&
n+46?<&3bapN&
;7&@6F5&A976G;C:&@6:&5_=5?;57C5A&;7&G67HJ6C<H?;7FD&67A&6<&
<45&:6G5&<;G5&<45&7HGB5?&>J&5G=8>955:&68:>&J588N&)7&=6?68858&
@;<4& <45& H=:@;7F& ;7& 5_<5?768& 5C>7>G;C& 6C<;S;<9D& 4>@5S5?D&
<4;:&=?>C5::&C856?89&<H?75A&6?>H7A&;7&<45&:5C>7A&468J&>J&<45&
956?D& 5:=5C;6889& ;7& <45& C6:5& >J& @6F5:D& <4H:& <45& ;7C?56:5& ;7&
:685:& @6:& >789& 6B85& <>& G;<;F6<5& <45& 5_<57<& >J& <45& A?>=& ;7&
=?>J;<:&;7&<45&G67HJ6C<H?;7F&;7AH:<?9N&)7&<45&:5?S;C5:&:5C<>?D&
A5C585?6<;>7&>J&@6F5:&@6:&C46?6C<5?;:<;C&>J&<45&@4>85&956?D&
67A& C>7:5`H57<89D& <45& =?>J;<& :;<H6<;>7& A;A& 7><& A5<5?;>?6<5&
679&G>?5&;7&qeN&)7&8;75&@;<4&<45&JH?<45?&;G=?>S5G57<&;7&<45&
5C>7>G;C& 57S;?>7G57<& 67A& <45& C>7<;7H;7F& 86B>H?& G6?X5<&
6AOH:<G57<D& @5& 5_=5C<& 6& F?6AH68& ?5C>S5?9& ;7& C>?=>?6<5&
=?>J;<6B;8;<9& ;7& 1232D& 68<4>HF4& =?>J;<:& 6?5& 5_=5C<5A& <>&
?5G6;7&B58>@&<45&=?5bC?;:;:&85S58:&>S5?&<45&75_<&<@>&956?:N
<?.)&1"(* 5+1"10+19* 0"3"0+./* 6"/* &)6"+1* 3$2+.+#):* )7&
=6?68858& @;<4& <45& 5C>7>G;C& 67A& J;767C;7F& 6AOH:<G57<&
6CC>G=679;7F& <45& ?5C5::;>7D& <45& 86?F5& CH??57<& 6CC>H7<&
A5J;C;<&<46<&@6:&<9=;C68&>J&?5C57<&956?:&A5C8;75A&?6=;A89D&67A&
;7& 122a& R1& 6& :HB:<67<;68& :H?=8H:& @6:& ?5C>?A5A& >7& <45&
CH??57<&6CC>H7<&B6867C5N&%45&A976G;C&;G=?>S5G57<&;7&<45&
B6867C5& G6;789& ?5J85C<:& <45& A5C8;75& ;7& A>G5:<;C& A5G67AD&
@;<4& <45& H=:@;7F& ;7& 5_=>?<& =5?J>?G67C5& 68:>& G6X;7F& 6&
C>7<?;BH<;>7& ;7& <45& :5C>7A& 468J& >J& <45& 956?N& "_<5?768&
J;767C;7F&C6=6C;<9&@6:&68:>&:H==>?<5A&B9&A5C8;7;7F&;7C>G5&
>H<J8>@:D& ;7& @4;C4& <45& G6;7& ?>85& @6:& =8695A& B9& <45&
:HB:<67<;68& A5C8;75& ;7& <45& =?>J;<:& >J& J>?5;F7b>@75A&
C>G=67;5:N&)7&=6?68858&@;<4&<4;:D&6&C>??5C<;>7&@6:&>B:5?S5A&
;7& 5_<5?768& C>:<:& >J& JH7A:& 6:& @588D& @4;C4& 46A& ;7C?56:5A&
N$%2)4$(-2H*+10$6)*3$2+.+$1*-).)&+$&".)-*0$12+-)&"'(/* 56?8;5?N&c5&5_=5C<&<46<&<45&?5:H8<;7F&4;F4&5_<5?768&J;767C;7F&
+1*PQQR:&%45&;7<57:;S5&86B>H?&G6?X5<&6AOH:<G57<&5_=5?;57C5A& C6=6C;<9&@;88&?5G6;7&;7&=86C5&AH?;7F&<45&C>G;7F&<@>&956?:&
Table 1-4
External position and net financing capacity of individual sectors
X$('$'8,6%,#)$4,'7/'SNTZ
2003
2004
2005
–8.0
–8.3
–7.2
2006
2007
2008
2009
–6.8
–7.2
0.4
–0.4
Estimated
A. Current account
B. Capital account
2010
2011
Forecast
–7.5
–0.4
0.0
0.1
0.7
0.7
0.7
1.0
1.4
2.0
2.4
C Net financing position, ˝top-down˝ (=A+B)
–8.0
–8.2
–6.5
–6.8
–6.1
–6.2
1.8
1.6
2.0
I. Public budget*
–8.3
–8.3
–9.4
–9.5
–5.8
–3.8
–4.7
–5.2
–4.5
II. Households
0.1
2.3
4.3
3.3
1.5
1.2
3.3
4.5
4.1
III. Corporations and ˝error˝ (=C-I.-II.)
0.2
–2.2
–1.4
–0.5
–1.8
–3.7
3.2
2.4
2.4
<7),W'I#'$33")"7#')7').,'/"(%$&'*234,)1').,'%7#(7&"3$),3'4,#,6$&'47A,6#0,#)'"#%&23,('&7%$&'47A,6#0,#)(1'"#()")2)"7#('3"(%.$64"#4'O2$("E/"(%$&'32)",('
XF2#4$6"$#' G)$),' H$"&-$+(' c;def' $#3' ).,' >23$8,()' T2*&"%' :6$#(876)' B708$#+' c>]efZ1' ).,' ;<>' $#3' $2).76")",(' "08&,0,#)"#4' %$8")$&' 867@,%)('
"#")"$),3'$#3'%7#)67&&,3'*+').,'47A,6#0,#)'$#3'/760$&&+'"08&,0,#),3'2#3,6'TTT'(%.,0,(9'G)$*"&")+'6,(,6A,('$#3'6,(,6A,('8$+$*&,'/76'"#),6,()'.$A,'
#7)'*,,#')$5,#'"#)7'$%%72#)'"#').,'/76,%$()'/76').,'/"#$#%"#4'6,O2"6,0,#)'7/').,'4,#,6$&'47A,6#0,#)9
G726%,W';<>9
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
23
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
6:& @588& n%6B85& 3bepN& *8<4>HF4& <45& ?5C>S5?9& J?>G& <45& C?;:;:&
G69& 856A& <>& 6& :H:<6;75A& ;7C?56:5& ;7& ;G=>?<& A5G67A& 67A& 6&
A5<5?;>?6<;7F& ;7C>G5& B6867C5& <4?>HF4& <45& :8>@& F?>@<4& ;7&
C>?=>?6<5&=?>J;<:D&;7C?56:;7F89&J6S>H?6B85&5_=>?<:&67A&JH7A:&
J?>G&<45&"V&G69&>JJ:5<&<45:5&75F6<;S5&5JJ5C<:&>7&B6867C5N
;4)* '"("10)* 24)).* "-S%2.6)1.* $5* .4)* 3&+#".)* 2)0.$&*
3&+6"&+(/*.$$7*3("0)*.4&$%94*"*2%'2."1.+"(*-)0(+1)*+1*
'$&&$B+19:&%45&;G=?>S5G57<&;7&<45&5_<5?768&B6867C5&@6:&
6<<?;BH<6B85&<>&<45&:46?=&;7C?56:5&;7&<45&=?;S6<5&:5C<>?]:&75<&
:6S;7F:&n+46?<&3b32pD&6:&4>H:54>8A:&67A&C>?=>?6<;>7:&:=57<&
5S57& 85::& >7& C>7:HG=<;>7& 67A& ;7S5:<G57<& <467& <45;?&
A5C8;7;7F& ;7C>G5:& ;7& 122a& nA5C8;75:& ;7& <45& ?6<5:& >J&
C>7:HG=<;>7&67A&;7S5:<G57<pN&R>H:54>8A:]&75<&B>??>@;7F&
Chart 1-10
Net financing capacity of households and
non-financial corporations
X(,$(7#$&&+'$3@2(),3'A$&2,(1'$('$'867876)"7#'7/'SNT
N$%2)4$(-2
#5?&C57<
31
32
d
d
^
^
e
e
1
1
2
2
m1
m1
ao&q3
ao&qg
ad&q3
ad&qg
aa&q3
aa&qg
22&q3
22&qg
23&q3
23&qg
21&q3
21&qg
2g&q3
2g&qg
2e&q3
2e&qg
2j&q3
2j&qg
2^&q3
2^&qg
2o&q3
2o&qg
2d&q3
2d&qg
2a&q3
2a&qg
32
12
#5?&C57<
T$1E5+1"1+0"(*0$&3$&".+$12
#5?&C57<
32
32
j
j
2
2
mj
mj
m32
m32
m3j
m3j
ad&q3
ad&qg
aa&q3
aa&qg
22&q3
22&qg
23&q3
23&qg
21&q3
21&qg
2g&q3
2g&qg
2e&q3
2e&qg
2j&q3
2j&qg
2^&q3
2^&qg
2o&q3
2o&qg
2d&q3
2d&qg
2a&q3
2a&qg
3j
,;6B;8;<;5:
G726%,W';<>9
5
24
Chart 1-11
12
3j
'5<&J;767C;7F&=>:;<;>7
*::5<:
T).*)?.)&1"(*-)'.*-)0(+1)-8*"(.4$%94*+.2*()#)(*&)6"+12*
4+94* +1* &)9+$1"(* 0$63"&+2$1:& %45& ?6=;A& J688& ;7& <45&
5_<5?768& J;767C;7F& ?5`H;?5G57<& <>>X& =86C5& ;7& =6?68858& @;<4&
:;F7;J;C67<& >H<J8>@:& >J& A5B<b<9=5& 8;6B;8;<;5:D& @4;C4& @6:&
6<<?;BH<6B85&<>&6&?5AHC<;>7&;7&B67X:]&5_<5?768&A5B<N&*8<4>HF4&
<45:5& >H<J8>@:& >J& J>?5;F7& 8;6B;8;<;5:& 6?5& ?586<5A& <>& <45&
?5C5::;>76?9& 5C>7>G;C& 57S;?>7G57<D& SH875?6B;8;<9& ;:&
?5AHC5A&B9&<45&J6C<&<46<&RH7F6?9]:&5_<5?768&A5B<D&@4;C4&46A&
=?5S;>H:89& :4>@7& 6& ?;:;7F& <?57AD& :<6?<5A& <>& A5C8;75& J?>G&
122a& q3N& )7& ;7<5?76<;>768& C>G=6?;:>7D& 4>@5S5?D& F?>::&
5_<5?768&A5B<&6G>H7<;7F&<>&ad&=5?&C57<&>J&QI#&6<&<45&57A&
>J&122a&qg&67A&<45&75<&5_<5?768&A5B<&>J&je&=5?&C57<j&C67&B5&
:<;88&C>7:;A5?5A&4;F4&;7&<45&?5F;>7&n+46?<&3b33pN&
Net external debt as a proportion of GDP, 2008
d2
^2
e2
12
2
m12
me2
m^2
md2
m322
#5?&C57<
Q?55C5
#>?<HF68
-=6;7
'5@&W56867A
RH7F6?9
,6<S;6
*H:<?68;6
V7;<5A&-<6<5:
-@5A57
I57G6?X
":<>7;6
+?>6<;6
)<689
,;<4H67;6
-8>S57;6
(?67C5
*H:<?;6
'5<45?867A:
+676A6
#>867A
%H?X59
V7;<5A&M;7FA>G
!>G67;6
.H8F6?;6
-8>S6X&!5=HB8;C
(;7867A
E5_;C>
.?6[;8
VX?6;75
+4;85
'>?@69
+[5C4&!5=HB8;C
.58F;HG
Q5?G679
):?658
*?F57<;75
+9=?H:
T6=67
31
#5?&C57<
J?>G&B67X:&n75@&B>??>@;7F&85::&?5=69G57<p&J588&5_<?5G589&
:46?=89N& )7& <45& C6:5& >J& 7>7bB67X& nG6;789& 856:;7Fp& 8>67:D&
4>H:54>8A:& 46S5& B5C>G5& 75<& 8>67& ?5=695?:N& (>88>@;7F& <45&
>H<B?56X& >J& <45& C?;:;:D& @;<4;7& <45& :C>=5& >J& C>G=67;5:]&
8;6B;8;<;5:D&<45&C>?=>?6<5&:5C<>?]:&H:5&>J&<?6A5&C?5A;<&A5C8;75A&
J;?:<& 6:& 6& ?5:H8<& >J& <45& C>886=:5& ;7& J>?5;F7& <?6A5N& %4;:& @6:&
J>88>@5A&B9&A>@7<H?7:&;7&B>??>@;7F&J?>G&B67X:&67A&J?>G&
6B?>6AN& %45& 6CCHGH86<;>7& >J& 4>H:54>8A:]& J;767C;68& 6::5<:&
@6:& :;F7;J;C67<89& 8>@5?& C>G=6?5A& <>& <45& =?5bC?;:;:& =5?;>AD&
@4;C4&G69&B5&?586<5A&<>&<45&A5C8;75&;7&5G=8>9G57<&67A&<45&
@>?:5&<467&5_=5C<5A&A5C8;75&;7&;7C>G5N&*<&<45&:6G5&<;G5D&
J>?&122a&6:&6&@4>85D&<45?5&@6:&=?6C<;C6889&7>&G6O>?&A5C8;75&
;7&<45&6CCHGH86<;>7&>J&<45&6::5<:&>J&C>?=>?6<;>7:N&c4;85&;7&
122a& R3& <45& A5=85<;>7& >J& =?5S;>H:89& 6CCHGH86<5A&
;7S57<>?;5:& 67A& <45& =>:<=>75G57<& >J& ;7S5:<G57<& @5?5&
?5J85C<5A&;7&67&;7C?56:5&;7&<45&:5C<>?]:&:6S;7F:D&C>?=>?6<;>7:]&
J;767C;68&?5C5;S6B85:&68?56A9&A5C8;75A&;7&<45&:5C>7A&468J&>J&
<45&956?N
<7),W'<,)',M),6#$&'3,*)',M%&23"#4'(.$6,.7&3,6'&7$#(9
G726%,(W'I!G1'R267()$)9
Debt indicators calculated on forint basis, excluding shareholder loans and financial derivatives.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
0''!:>C>'59'7E3'9:8;8<:;=':8736B3D:;6@'>@>73BF'
6
The banking sector refers to the banks, branches and specialised credit institutions excluding Eximbank, MFB, KELER and savings cooperatives.
!)-M-&$(&%R"&()'*'+)*,&)'%"!E"I)*!/&-/-%"E
:.,' 0$"#(' 6"(5(' 7/' ).,' F2#4$6"$#' /"#$#%"$&' (+(),0' $6,' ).,'
()67#4'867%+%&"%$&'*,.$A"726'7/').,'*$#5"#4'(,%)76'"#').,'/",&3'
7/'%76876$),'&,#3"#41').,'."4.'$072#)'7/'.72(,.7&3(?'/76,"4#'
%266,#%+' &7$#(1' "#(2//"%",#)' 3,87(")' %6,$)"7#1' ).,' 3,%&"#"#41'
*2)' ()"&&' ."4.' &7$#E)7E3,87(")' 6$)"7' $#3' ."4.' %6,3")' 6"(5('
XB.$6)'JE^Z9'
I#' JKKL1' ).,' /$&&' "#' &,#3"#4' )7' %76876$)"7#(' -$(' #7)$*&,' "#'
"#),6#$)"7#$&' %708$6"(7#1' "#' -."%.' ).,' )"4.)1' #7#E86"%,'
%6,3")' %7#3")"7#(' 7/' *$#5(' 8&$+,3' $' 8670"#,#)' 67&,9' >$#5(?'
*,.$A"726' ."#3,6(' ).,' ,%7#70"%' 6,%7A,6+9' H"(5' (.$6"#4'
*,)-,,#'*$#5('$#3'()$),1'"9,9').,'()$),'42$6$#),,'86746$00,('
$#3'(2*("3+'(%.,0,'%$#',$(,'(288&+'%7#()6$"#)('$#3',//"%",#)&+'
6,32%,'/"#$#%"#4'%7()(9'
*$#5"#4' (,%)76?(' &7$#E)7E3,87(")' 6$)"7' "(' ()"&&' ."4.' "#'
"#),6#$)"7#$&' %708$6"(7#1' $#3' $%%763"#4&+' ")(' 6,&"$#%,' 7#'
/76,"4#'/2#3"#4'"('()"&&'("4#"/"%$#)9'F7-,A,61'/26).,6'$3@2()0,#)'
7/').,'86"A$),'(,%)76?('*$&$#%,'(.,,)'$#3',$6&",6'%6"("(',M8,6",#%,('
(244,()').$)').,'&7$#E)7E3,87(")'6$)"7'-"&&'%7#)"#2,')7'3,%&"#,9'
;$"#&+'7-"#4')7'7#,E7//'/$%)76(1').,'0$@76")+'7/'*$#5('-,6,'
$*&,' )7' %7A,6' ).,' "#%6,$("#4' &7$#' &7((,(' "#' JKKL9' ;76,7A,61'
).,'*$#5"#4'(,%)76'$%.",A,3'867/")(',M%,,3"#4').,',M8,%)$)"7#('
&$()' +,$61' $&).724.' ).,"6' 3"()6"*2)"7#' -$(' $(+00,)6"%9' :.,'
(2()$"#$*"&")+' 7/' )."(' /$A726$*&,' 867/")$*"&")+' "(' ."4.&+'
2#%,6)$"#'"#'JK^K9'>$#5(?'%$8")$&'87(")"7#'"('$3,O2$),9'C&7#4'
-").' *$#5(?' *$&$#%,' (.,,)' $3@2()0,#)1' %$8")$&' "#%6,$(,(' 7/'
8$6,#)' *$#5(' $#3' 6,"#A,()0,#)' 7/' 867/")(' .$A,' %7#("3,6$*&+'
"#%6,$(,3' ).,' %$8")$&' $3,O2$%+' 6$)"7' $)' ).,' *$#5"#4' (,%)76'
&,A,&9' >$#5(?' &"O2"3")+' $#3' %6,3")' 6"(5' ()6,((' ),()(' (.7-'
$3,O2$),'(.7%5(E$*(76*"#4'%$8$%")+9
:7)$&'&7$#(')7'.72(,.7&3('/,&&'7#&+'(&"4.)&+9'P."&,'3,0$#3'/76'
&7$#(' 3,%&"#,31' *$#5(' #$667-,3' ).,' %6,3")' (288&+' "#' )."('
(,40,#)' $(' -,&&1' 86"0$6"&+' *+' )"4.),#"#4' "#),6,()' 6$),'
%7#3")"7#(9' P,' %7#("3,6' ).,' %766,%)"7#' "#' #7#E86"%,' %6,3")' Chart 2-1
%7#3")"7#(1'-."%.'.$3'*,%70,')77'&77(,'"#'6,%,#)'+,$6('$#3'
).,'("4#"/"%$#)'3,%&"#,'"#'G-"(('/6$#%E3,#70"#$),3'&,#3"#4')7' Changes in main risk indicators between December
2008 and December 2009
*,' $' 87(")"A,' )6,#31' $&7#4' -").' ).,' "#%6,$(,' "#' ).,' (.$6,' 7/'
,>67b<>bA5=>:;<&?6<;>
n3^2rm3egrp
/76"#)E3,#70"#$),3'86732%)('-")."#'#,-'"((2$#%,9'F7-,A,61'
3Nj2
+*!
(>?5;F7&8;6B;8;<;5:l
n33N1rm31Narp
7#,'2#/$A726$*&,')6,#3'"(').$)').,'(.$6,'7/'/76,"4#'%266,#%+'
<><68&6::5<:
ngermg1rp&
&7$#('-")."#').,',M"()"#4',M87(26,'"('7#&+'3,%&"#"#4'$)'$'(&7-'
$H<:<67A;7F&6G>H7<&
6$),9' I#' $33")"7#' )7' *$#5(?' 6"(5' $A,6("7#1' ).,' 47A,6#0,#)'
!$*
(i&:@6=:l
&n3N2jrm2Naorp
<><68&6::5<:
3,%6,,'7#'8623,#)'&,#3"#4'$#3').,'%,#)6$&'*$#5'86746$00,' K$(#)10/8
n33rmorp& O-S%2.6)1.2*+1*
.4)*'"17+19
3&$5+."'+(+./
2)0.$&8*(+,%+-+./
8$%5$4,'$"0,3'$)'3,A,&78"#4').,'/76"#)'076)4$4,'0$65,)'0$+'
+1-+0".$&2
+>:<&>J&
*FF?5F6<5A&
=?>S;:;>7;7F
G6?X5<
$&(7' (28876)' ).,' %6,$)"7#' 7/' $' .,$&).",6' %6,3")' ()62%)26,' "#'
<>&<><68&8>67:&
&8;`H;A;<9&;7A5_
n3N3erm1Nedrp
nm1N2^mm2Nd1p
),60('7/'3,#70"#$)"7#'$#3'%6,3")'%7#3")"7#(9
:.,' *$&$#%,' (.,,)' 7/' ).,' *$#5"#4' (,%)76' .$(' %.$#4,3'
%7#("3,6$*&+'-").').,'"0867A,0,#)'"#').,'/"#$#%"#4'87(")"7#'
7/' ).,' 86"A$),' (,%)769' :.,' &7$#E)7E3,87(")' 6$)"7' 3,%&"#,39'
F7-,A,61' ).,' 8$%,' 7/' $3@2()0,#)' 3,%,&,6$),3' 326"#4' JKKL1'
87(("*&+' $(' $' 6,(2&)' 7/' -").36$-$&(' 7/' 3,87(")(' *+' %708$#",('
$#3' .72(,.7&3(?' &7-' 3,87(")E)$5"#4' "#' 8$6)9' :.,' 370,()"%'
*S5?6F5&G6<H?;<9&>J&J>?5;F7
8;6B;8;<;5:
n1N1&956?:m1N1&956?:p
I5CN&2d
,;`H;A&6::5<:&<>&
<><68&6::5<:&;7&<45
B67X;7F&:9:<5G&
n3arm1erp
I5CN&2a
<7),W' G)$#3$63"(,3' "#3"%$)76(9' ;,$(26,(' (%$&,3' )7' K' $#3' ^' "#),6A$&'
*,)-,,#').,'0"#"020'$#3'0$M"020'*,)-,,#',$6&+'JKK['$#3'N,%,0*,6'
JKKL9'I#').,'%.$6)1'"#').,'%$(,'7/'"#3"A"32$&'"#3"%$)76(').,'87"#)('%&7(,6'
)7').,'%,#)6,'7/').,'%.$6)'"#3"%$),').,'&7-,6'6"(59
G726%,W';<>9
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
27
2.1 Significant decline in lending
:.,'%76876$),'&7$#'0$65,)'3,),6"76$),3'("4#"/"%$#)&+'"#'JKKL' Chart 2-2
XB.$6)' JEJZ9' N2,' )7' -,$5' 370,()"%' $*(768)"7#1' %708$#",(?' Annual growth rates of the private sector’s bank,
3,0$#3' /76' %6,3")' "(' /$&&"#49' :.,' 3,%&"#,' "#' *$#5(?' 6"(5' domestic and total loans and indebtedness as a
$88,)"),' "(' 6,/&,%),3' "#' /26).,6' )"4.),#"#4' #7#E86"%,' %6,3")' proportion of GDP
%7#3")"7#(9':.,'3,%&"#"#4'/2#3"#4'%7()('$6,'$&6,$3+'*,"#4'(,,#'
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
"#' "#),6,()' 6$),(' 7#' #,-' &7$#(1' *2)' )."(' 8$6)&+' 6,/&,%)(' ).$)' g2
*$#5(' $6,' 7#&+' /"#$#%"#4' ).,' 07()' %6,3")-76).+' %708$#",(9' 1j
C%%763"#4' )7' 726' ,M8,%)$)"7#(1' %76876$),' &7$#(' 0$+' 7#&+' 12
,M8$#3' $4$"#' "#' ).,' (,%7#3' .$&/' 7/' ).,' +,$61' -").' $' 076,'
3j
("4#"/"%$#)'28(-"#4'7#&+',M8,%),3'"#'JK^^9':.,'07()'(2")$*&,'
32
)77&'/76'()"02&$)"#4'%76876$),'&,#3"#4'$%)"A")+'"('8$6)"$&'6"(5E
j
(.$6"#4'*,)-,,#').,'47A,6#0,#)'$#3').,'*$#5('"#').,'/760'7/'
2
47A,6#0,#)'42$6$#),,'$#3'(2*("3"(,3'&7$#'86746$00,(9'
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
mj
m32
:.,'B,#)6$&'>$#5'.$('0$3,'#20,672('6,42&$)76+'86787($&('
)7'86707),'$'.,$&).",6'()62%)26,'7/'&,#3"#4')7'.72(,.7&3(9'C)'
).,';<>?('"#")"$)"A,1').,'47A,6#0,#)'6,42&$)"7#'7#'8623,#)'
&,#3"#4' -$(' $378),39' I)(' 86"0$6+' 7*@,%)"A,' "(' )7' 86,A,#)'
,M%,(("A,' ,$("#4' 7/' %6,3")' %7#3")"7#(' "#' ).,' ,A,#)' 7/' $#'
,%7#70"%'28)26#'$#3')7'86,A,#)'6,$%%,&,6$)"7#'7/'.72(,.7&3?('
/76,"4#' %266,#%+' &,#3"#49' I#' $33")"7#1' ).,' ;<>' -"(.,(' )7'
(28876)' 3,A,&780,#)' 7/' ).,' /76"#)E3,#70"#$),3' 076)4$4,'
&7$#' $#3' 076)4$4,' *7#3' 0$65,)9' :.,' /"6()' (),8' 7/' )."('
86746$00,' "(' ).,' B,#)6$&' >$#5?(' /76"#)E3,#70"#$),3'
076)4$4,' *7#3' 826%.$("#4' 78,6$)"7#9' I#' $33")"7#1' ).,'
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
mj
G)$6)"#4'/670',$6&+'JKKL').,'()7%5'7/'.72(,.7&3(?'&7$#('$&(7' m32
3,%&"#,31'0$"#&+'$('$'6,(2&)'7/').,'3678'"#'&7$#('/76'A,."%&,' m3j
/"#$#%"#49' Y#' ).,' 7#,' .$#31' ).,' 3,%&"#,' "#' )7)$&' &7$#(' "('
$))6"*2)$*&,' )7' .72(,.7&3(?' /$&&"#4' 3,0$#3' 32,' )7'
86,%$2)"7#$6+' %7#("3,6$)"7#(1' $#3' 7#' ).,' 7).,6' .$#3' )7' ).,'
)"4.)'86"%"#4'X"#),6,()'6$),Z'%7#3")"7#('7#').,'(288&+'("3,9':.,'
467-).' 72)&775' /76' .72(,.7&3' &7$#(' %7#)"#2,(' )7' *,'
2#/$A726$*&,'$#3'-,'7#&+',M8,%)')7'(,,'$'(2*()$#)"$&'6,%7A,6+' 3Ne
"#')."('(,40,#)'/670'JK^^'7#9
m3j
.67X&8>67:
I>G5:<;C&8>67:
%><68&=?;S6<5&:5C<>?&8>67:
3Ne
3N1
3N1
3N2
3N2
2Nd
2Nd
2N^
2N^
2Ne
2Ne
2N1
2N1
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
:.,'6$3"%$&'%.$#4,'"#'*$#5(?'(288&+'7/'%6,3")'6,(2&),3'"#').,'
%766,%)"7#'7/',M%,(("A,&+'&77(,'%6,3")'%7#3")"7#(1'$'3,%&"#,'"#'
G-"(('/6$#%E3,#70"#$),3'&,#3"#4'$#3'$#'"#%6,$(,'"#').,'(.$6,'
7/' /76"#)E3,#70"#$),3' %7#)6$%)(' -")."#' #,-' "((2$#%,9'
F7-,A,61'$('7887(,3')7'#,-'&7$#(1').,'3,%&"#,'"#').,'(.$6,'7/'
/76,"4#' ,M%.$#4,' &7$#(' -")."#' ,M"()"#4' ,M87(26,(' "(' 02%.'
(&7-,61'$(').,'$A,6$4,'6,0$"#"#4'0$)26")+'7/'076)4$4,'&7$#('
"('^V'+,$6(9'C&(71').,'3,%6,$(,'"#').,'"#),6,()'6$),'3"//,6,#%,'
*,)-,,#' ,M"()"#4' /76"#)' $#3' /76,"4#' %266,#%+' &7$#(' $6,' &,(('
("4#"/"%$#)9'
28
g2
.67X&8>67:&l&QI#
%><68&=?;S6<5&:5C<>?&8>67:&l&QI#
I>G5:<;C&8>67:&l&QI#
<7),W' N70,()"%' &7$#(' `' *$#5' &7$#(' g' &7$#(' 7/' 7).,6' /"#$#%"$&'
"#),60,3"$6",(9' :7)$&' 86"A$),' (,%)76' &7$#(' `' 370,()"%' &7$#(' g' /76,"4#'
&7$#(' S67-).' 6$),(' )7' *,' 2#3,6()773' $(' ,M%.$#4,' 6$),' $3@2(),3' 3$)$9'
:7)$&'&7$#('-").72)'$3@2()0,#)'/76').,',M%.$#4,'6$),',//,%)'$#3'$##2$&'
#70"#$&'SNT'-,6,'2(,3'"#').,'%.$6)'7#').,'6"4.)9
G726%,W';<>9
86746$00,' $"0(' $)' 0$5"#4' 076)4$4,' &7$#' 86732%)(' 076,'
)6$#(8$6,#)' $#3' $)' 87(("*&,' -"3,#"#4' ).,' (%78,' 7/' /"#$#%"$&'
"#()")2)"7#(',#)")&,3')7'"((2,'076)4$4,'*7#3(9
!)-M-&$(&%R"&()'*'+)*,&)'%"!E"I)*!/&-/-%"E
U+.4+1*-$6)2.+0*'"17*($"128*+.*B"2*6"+1(/*24$&.E.)&6*
($"12* .4".* -)0(+1)-:* %45& CH??57C9& C>G=>:;<;>7& >J& <45&
A5C8;75&A>5:&7><&:4>@&6&C>45?57<&=;C<H?5k&6<&<45&B5F;77;7F&
67A&<45&57A&>J&<45&956?&<45&J688&@6:&G>?5&<9=;C68&>J&J>?;7<&
8>67:D&@4;85&;7&<45&G;AA85&>J&<45&956?&J>?5;F7&CH??57C9&8>67:&
J588N&c;<4;7&<><68&8>67:D&<45&A5C8;75&;7&:4>?<b<5?G&8>67:&@6:&
F?56<5?D&B5C6H:5&AH?;7F&B6867C5&:455<&6AOH:<G57<&<45&J6:<5:<&
@69& J>?& B67X:& <>& ?5AHC5& <45;?& C>?=>?6<5& 5_=>:H?5:& ;:& <>&
?5:<?6;7& :4>?<b<5?G& 8>67:& n+46?<& 1bepN& )7& 6AA;<;>7D& C?5A;<&
C>7A;<;>7:& B5C6G5& <;F4<5?& G6;789& S;:bxbS;:& <45& :G688& 67A&
G5A;HG& 57<5?=?;:5:& :5C<>?D& @45?5& :4>?<b<5?G& J;767C;7F& ;:&
<9=;C68N
G$66)&0+"(*&)"(*)2.".)*5+1"10+19*+2*7)3.*%3*6"+1(/*'/*
1)0)22+./:**:&6&?5:H8<&>J&56?8;5?&86?F5bS>8HG5&A5S58>=G57<:D&
<45& C>GG5?C;68& ?568& 5:<6<5& G6?X5<D& 67A& @;<4;7& <46<& <45&
>JJ;C5& G6?X5<& ;7& =6?<;CH86?D& ;:& C46?6C<5?;:5A& B9& 5_C5::&
:H==89N& %4;:& :;<H6<;>7& ;:& ?5J85C<5A& B9& <45& 6S5?6F5& ?57<& 67A&
H<;8;:6<;>7&;7A;C6<>?D&@4;C4&@6:&>7&<45&A5C8;75&J>?&68G>:<&688&
>J&122a&n+46?<&1bjpN&*CC>?A;7F&<>&<45&C57<?68&B67X]:&:H?S59&
>7&B67X&857A;7F&=?6C<;C5:D&B67X:&C856?89&C>7:;A5?&J;767C;7F&
C>GG5?C;68& ?568& 5:<6<5& =?>O5C<:& ?;:X;5?& <467& <45& 6S5?6F5&
C>?=>?6<5& =>?<J>8;>N& %45?5J>?5D& <459& 6?5& ?5J?6;7;7F& J?>G&
JH?<45?&6C<;S5&857A;7F&;7&<4;:&:5FG57<N&%4;:&;:&:4>@7&B9&<45&
J6C<&<46<&6&86?F5?&=?>=>?<;>7&>J&B67X:&;7A;C6<5A&<;F4<57;7F&
;7& C?5A;<& C>7A;<;>7:& J>?& <4;:& :5FG57<& <467& J>?& C>?=>?6<5&
8>67:N& R>@5S5?D& =?>O5C<& 8>67:& C677><& A5C8;75& ?6=;A89D& 67A&
Industrial production and non-financial
corporations’ leverage as well as the quarterly value
of net flow of corporate domestic and foreign loans
M1-%2.&+"(*3&$-%0.+$1
3^2
1N3j
3j2
1N32
3e2
1N2j
3g2
1N22
312
3Naj
332
3Na2
322
3Ndj
a2
3Nd2
d2
3Noj
o2
3No2
2j&q3
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
G$&3$&".+$12*"&)*&"3+-(/*&)-%0+19*.4)+&*()#)&"9):&122a&
@6:&G6?X5A&B9&6&:5S5?5&5C>7>G;C&?5C5::;>7&67A&A5<5?;>?6<;7F&
C?5A;<& C>7A;<;>7:& >7& <45& @4>85N& %45& C>?=>?6<5& :5C<>?&
?56C<5A& <>& <45& H7J6S>H?6B85& G6C?>5C>7>G;C& 67A& C?5A;<&
G6?X5<&57S;?>7G57<&B9&?5AHC;7F&;<:&<><68&A5B<N&%45&?;:5&>J&
;7A5B<5A75::& @4;C4& 86:<5A& H7<;8& <45& B5F;77;7F& >J& 86:<& 956?&
C6G5& <>& 67& 57AD& 67A& 6CC>?A;7F& <>& <45& J;767C;68& 6CC>H7<:D&
C>?=>?6<5& 85S5?6F5& A?>==5A& :;F7;J;C67<89& 6:& 6& ?5:H8<& >J& <45&
A5C8;75& ;7& >H<:<67A;7F& 8>67:N& )7& 122aD& <><68& 8>67:& >J& 7>7b
J;767C;68&C>?=>?6<;>7:&J588&B9&33No&=5?&C57<D&@4;85&A>G5:<;C&
8>67:&>H<:<67A;7F&A5C8;75A&B9&dNe&=5?&C57<&n+46?<&1bgpN&%45&
G6F7;<HA5& >J& <4;:& A5C8;75& 5_C55A5A& >H?& =?5S;>H:&
5_=5C<6<;>7:N& )7& <5?G:& >J& 6G>H7<D& <45& 86?F5:<& A5C8;75& @6:&
>B:5?S5A& ;7& 8>67:& J?>G& <45& A>G5:<;C& B67X;7F& :5C<>?D&
68<4>HF4& ;7& <5?G:& >J& =?>=>?<;>7& <45& J688& @6:& 68:>& S5?9&
:;F7;J;C67<& ;7& A>G5:<;C& 7>7bB67X& C>?=>?6<5& 8>67:& n<4>:5&
5_<57A5A& B9& A>G5:<;C& J;767C;68& C>?=>?6<;>7:pN& ,6?F5&
C>?=>?6<;>7:& A;A& 7><& :HB:<;<H<5& <45& A5C8;7;7F& A>G5:<;C&
J;767C;7F&@;<4&5_<5?768&J;767C;7FN&(>88>@;7F&<45&;7C?56:5&;7&
122a& R3D& <45& 6G>H7<& B>??>@5A& J?>G& 6B?>6A& 68?56A9& J588&
C>7:;A5?6B89&;7&qg&67A&C>7<;7H5A&<>&:4?;7X&;7&qeN
Chart 2-3
)7AH:<?;68&=?>AHC<;>7
I>G5:<;C&:685:
"_=>?<&:685:
+6=;<68&85S5?6F5&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
T).*0&)-+.*5($B*.$*1$1E5+1"10+"(*
0$&3$&".+$12
d22
^22
e22
122
2
m122
me22
m^22
md22
.7&RV(
.7&RV(
2j&q3
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
2.1.1 TIGHT CORPORATE CREDIT
CONDITIONS MAY HINDER ECONOMIC
RECOVERY
d22
^22
e22
122
2
m122
me22
m^22
md22
'5<&J8>@D&A>G5:<;C&8>67:
'5<&J8>@D&J>?5;F7&8>67:
'5<&J8>@D&<><68
<7),W' !76' ).,' "#32()6"$&' 86732%)"7#' A7&20,' "#3,M' ).,' $A,6$4,' 7/' JKK['
,O2$&(' ^KKh' (,$(7#$&&+' $3@2(),3' 3$)$9' _,A,6$4,' `' )7)$&' /"#$#%"$&'
&"$*"&")",(' a' 7-#' /2#3(9' :.,' &,A,6$4,' 6$)"7' "(' $3@2(),3' /76' 6,A$&2$)"7#(9'
<,)'"#%6,$(,'"#')7)$&'&7$#(1'(,$(7#$&&+'2#$3@2(),3'$#3'%766,%),3'/76').,'
,M%.$#4,'6$),',//,%)9
G726%,(W'BGY'$#3';<>9
<45?5&;:&J>?C5A&857A;7F&F>;7F&>7&;7&<4;:&:5C<>?N&.67X:&C677><&
?5<?56<&J?>G&<4;:&:5C<>?&`H;CX89D&6:&B9&A>;7F&:>&<459&@>H8A&
:;F7;J;C67<89& A55=57& <45& ?5C5::;>7& >7& <45& C>GG5?C;68& ?568&
5:<6<5&G6?X5<D&67A&@>H8A&<4H:&5_6C5?B6<5&<45;?&8>67&8>::5:N&
*<&<45&:6G5&<;G5D&<45&:<6F76<;7F&:<>CX&>J&=?>O5C<&8>67:D&67A&
;7&=6?<;CH86?&C>GG5?C;68&?568&5:<6<5&=?>O5C<&8>67:D&6CC>H7<&
J>?&67&;7C?56:;7F&=>?<;>7&>J&C>?=>?6<5&8>67:N
O* -)0(+1)* +1* .4)* $%.2."1-+19* "6$%1.* $5* ($"12* B"2*
$'2)&#)-*+1*"(6$2.*"((*2)0.$&2*$5*.4)*)0$1$6/:*-<6?<;7F&
J?>G&122a&R1D&5_=>?<&:685:&:4>@5A&:;F7:&>J&?5C>S5?9D&@4;85&
<45&J688&;7&A>G5:<;C&:685:&6CC585?6<5AN&*CC>?A;7F89D&;7&122a&
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
29
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
Chart 2-4
Chart 2-5
Composition of the net borrowing of corporations
from domestic banks
Project loans of the banking sector and average
rent and absorption rate of the Budapest office
market
G$63$2+.+$1*'/*-)1$6+1".+$1
e22
.7&RV(
.7&RV(
e22
122
122
2
gD222
A&$S)0.*5+1"10)
.7&RV(
#5?&C57<
1e
e22
<7),W'G,$(7#$&&+'2#$3@2(),3'3$)$9'P").'67&&"#4',M%.$#4,'6$),'$3@2()0,#)'
"#').,'*6,$537-#('*+'&7#4'$#3'(.76)'),60('$#3'%266,#%+9'
G726%,W';<>9
de
31Dj
d1
31D2
d2
33Dj
od
33D2
o^
32Dj
*B:>?=<;>7&?6<5
2a&qg
'5<&J8>@D&:4>?<b<5?G&8>67:
3gD2
2a&q3
'5<&J8>@D&8>7Fb<5?G&8>67:
d^
2d&qg
mg22
3gDj
2d&q3
mg22
3eD2
dd
2o&qg
m122
5H?>lG1
2o&q3
m122
a2
2^&qg
m322
G$66)&0+"(*&)"(*)2.".)*+1-+0".$&2
#5?&C57<
2^&q3
m322
2a&qg
2
2a&q3
2
2d&qg
322
2d&q3
322
2o&qg
122
2o&q3
122
2^&qg
g22
2^&q3
g22
2j&qg
.7&RV(
$<45?:
!5:;A57<;68
$JJ;C5:
+>GG5?C;68&?568&5:<6<5&8>67:&<>&<><68&8>67:
n>H<:<67A;7F&6G>H7<D&?;F4<b467A&:C685p
2j&q3
G$63$2+.+$1*'/*6".%&+./
2a&qe
'5<&J8>@D&<><68&8>67:
2e&qg
e22
.7&RV(
RV(&8>67:
2e&q3
(i&8>67:
2a&qg
2
2a&q1
2
2a&q3
e
2d&qe
j22
2d&qg
m^22
2d&q1
m^22
2d&q3
d
2o&qe
3D222
2o&qg
me22
2o&q1
me22
2o&q3
31
2a&qg
3Dj22
2a&q3
m122
2d&qg
m122
2d&q3
3^
2o&qg
1D222
2o&q3
2
2^&qg
12
2^&q3
1Dj22
#?;G5&?57<&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
<7),W'G)7%5'3$)$'2("#4').,',M%.$#4,'6$),'7/'V^'N,%,0*,6'JKKL9
G726%,(W'B>HR1';<>9
<45&A5C8;75&;7&A>G5:<;C&B67X&8>67:&@6:&5:=5C;6889&7><;C56B85&
;7&<45&C>GG5?C;68&:5C<>?&=?>AHC;7F&J>?&<45&A>G5:<;C&G6?X5<&
67A&;7&<45&S54;C85&?5=6;?&:5C<>?N&*<&<45&B5F;77;7F&>J&<45&956?D&
GH8<;76<;>768& C>G=67;5:& m& @4;C4& 6CC>H7<& J>?& 6& :;F7;J;C67<&
=>?<;>7&>J&5_=>?<&:685:&m&G6;789&J;767C5A&<45&5_=67:;>7&;7&
6C<;S;<9& <4?>HF4& <45;?& =6?57<& C>G=67;5:D& 67A& :HB:5`H57<89&
J?>G& ;7<5?768& :>H?C5:N& %45?5J>?5D& ;<& ;:& 7><& :H?=?;:;7F& <46<&
<45?5& @6:& 68:>& 7>& C467F5& ;7& <45& G67HJ6C<H?;7F& 8>67&
=>?<J>8;>N& c;<4& <45& :8HG=& ;7& <>H?;:GD& <><68& 8>67:& 68:>&
A5C8;75A&;7&<45&6CC>GG>A6<;>7&:5?S;C5:&67A&C6<5?;7F&:5C<>?N&
%45& S5?9& :HB:<67<;68& J688& ;7& 8>7Fb<5?G& J>?5;F7& 5_C467F5&
8>67:&;7A;C6<5:&<46<&G679&;7S5:<G57<:&46S5&B557&=>:<=>75A&
;7& <4;:& :5C<>?N& c4;85& <45& ?5:;A57<;68& 67A& C>GG5?C;68& ?568&
5:<6<5& G6?X5<& J6C5:& ?5C5::;>7D& >H<:<67A;7F& 8>67:& A;A& 7><&
A5C8;75& ;7& <45& C>7:<?HC<;>7& >?& ?568& 5:<6<5& <?67:6C<;>7:& 67A&
5C>7>G;C& :5?S;C5:& :5C<>?:& ;7& 122aD& AH5& <>& <45& 8>7Fb<5?G&
30
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
G6<H?;<9& >J& <45& 8>67:& 67A& <45& ;7<57:5& @>?X>H<& 6C<;S;<9&
n+46?<&1b^pN
;4)* -)0(+1)* +1* ($"12* .$* .4)* 0$&3$&".)* 2)0.$&* +2* "*
9)1)&"(* 34)1$6)1$1* .4&$%94$%.* .4)* &)9+$1:& %45&
G6F7;<HA5&>J&<45&A5C8;75&;7&C>?=>?6<5&B67X&857A;7F&;7&<45&
+[5C4&!5=HB8;C&67A&,6<S;6&@6:&:;G;86?&<>&<46<&;7&RH7F6?9&
;7&122aD&@4;85&<45&C>7<?6C<;>7&@6:&5S57&F?56<5?&;7&,;<4H67;6&
n+46?<& 1bopN& )7& <45:5& C>H7<?;5:D& <45& A?>=& ;7& C>?=>?6<5&
857A;7F&C67&B5&5_=86;75A&B9&<45&4;F4&A5F?55&>J&>=5775::&>J&
<45& 5C>7>G9& 6:& @588& 6:& <45& A5C8;75& ;7& 5_=>?<& :685:& 67A&
;7S5:<G57<N
M1.)&)2.* &".)2* $1* -$6)2.+0* 0$&3$&".)* ($"12* "&)*
-)0(+1+19:*I"172H*3&+0)*5"0.$&2*+63&$#)-*+1*PQQR8*+:):*
!)-M-&$(&%R"&()'*'+)*,&)'%"!E"I)*!/&-/-%"E
Chart 2-6
Chart 2-7
Annual growth rate of bank loans outstanding by
sectors and sectoral output
Corporate lending in the CEE region (Dec. 2008 =
100 per cent) and the relationship between lending
and exports
j
#5?&C57<
a2
a2
m32
m32
m3j
m3j
m12
m12
m1j
m1j
mg2
mg2
!568&5:<6<5&67A
5C>7>G;C
:5?S;C5:
mj
%?6A5D&?5=6;?
67A&C6<5?;7F
:5?S;C5:
mj
+>7:<?HC<;>7
2
$H<=H<&>J&:5C<>?:
.Q
,h
#,
,%
-M
!$
G726%,W';<>9
1$6+1"(*+1.)&)2.*&".)2*5)((:&)7<5?5:<&?6<5:&>7&75@&J>?;7<b&
67A& 5H?>bA57>G;76<5A& 8>67:& J>88>@5A& <45& A5C8;75& ;7&
;7<5?B67X& ?6<5:N& R>@5S5?D& <45& A5C8;75& @6:& 4;7A5?5A& B9& 67&
;7C?56:5&;7&C?5A;<&?;:X&C>:<&67A&;<:&=?;C;7F&;7<>&;7<5?5:<&?6<5:N&
)7<5?5:<&?6<5&=?5G;6&>J&B><4&J>?;7<b&67A&5H?>bA57>G;76<5A&
8>67:& ;7C?56:5A& :;F7;J;C67<89& n<>& g& =5?C57<6F5& =>;7<:& J?>G&
<45& 3Nj& =5?C57<6F5& =>;7<:& B5J>?5& $C<>B5?& 122dpN& %45&
A;JJ5?57C5&B5<@557&<45&J>?;7<&67A&5H?>&;7<5?5:<&?6<5:&;:&:<;88&
4;F4D&6<&6B>S5&j&=5?&C57<N&*<&<45&:6G5&<;G5D&<45&6S6;86B;8;<9&
>J&5H?>bA57>G;76<5A&8>67:&;:&8;G;<5A&n+46?<&1bdpN&*CC>?A;7F&
""
;4)*&)(".+$1*').B))1*0&)-+.*"1-*)?3$&.
+467F5:&;7&<45&S>8HG57&>J&5_=>?<&n122a&/b>b/D&rp
2
mj
""
+W
!$
RV
,h
m3j
#,
,%
m32
m32
.Q
m12
-M
QI#
<7),W'B.$#4,'"#'&7$#'A7&20,('"(',M%.$#4,'6$),'$3@2(),39'
+W
RV
I5CN&2a
a1
j
2
E67HJ6C<H?;7F
a1
'>7bJ;767C;68&C>?=>?6<5&8>67:
j #5?&C57<
*F?;CH8<H?5
ae
'>SN&2a
-5C<>?&8>67:
ae
$C<N&2a
mg2
a^
-5=N&2a
mg2
a^
*HFN&2a
m1j
ad
TH89&2a
m1j
ad
TH75&2a
m12
321
322
E69&2a
m12
#5?&C57<
322
*=?N&2a
m3j
#5?&C57<
E6?N&2a
m3j
321
V)1-+19*.$*1$1E5+1"10+"(
0$&3$&".+$12
(5BN&2a
m32
!568&5:<6<5&67A
5C>7>G;C
:5?S;C5:
m32
%?6A5D&?5=6;?
67A&C6<5?;7F
:5?S;C5:
mj
+>7:<?HC<;>7
mj
E67HJ6C<H?;7F
2
*F?;CH8<H?5
2
O67N&2a
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
I5CN&2d
j
md
m^
me
m1
2
m1j
+?5A;<&:<>CX&F?>@<4&n122a&/b>b/D&rp
<7),W' RM%.$#4,' 6$),' $3@2(),3' )"0,' (,6",(' "#' ).,' %$(,' 7/' &7$#(9' I#' ).,''
*7))70' %.$6)1' ).,' &$64,6' 6.70*2(,(' "#3"%$),' ()67#4,6' 3,%&"#,(' "#' SNT9'
>2&4$6"$' X>SZ1' B=,%.' H,82*&"%' XBiZ1' R()7#"$' XRRZ1' _$)A"$' X_eZ1'
_").2$#"$' X_:Z1' F2#4$6+' XFDZ1' T7&$#3' XT_Z1' H70$#"$' XHYZ1' G&7A$5"$'
XG]Z9
G726%,(W'<$)"7#$&'%,#)6$&'*$#5(1'R267()$)9
<>&<45&E'.]:&-57;>?&,>67&$JJ;C5?&-H?S59&>7&.67X&,57A;7F&
#?6C<;C5:& n(5B?H6?9& 1232pD& ;7& S;5@& >J& <45& :;F7;J;C67<&
<;F4<57;7F& ;7& 7>7b=?;C5& C>7A;<;>7:D& >789& C8;57<:& @;<4& S5?9&
F>>A&C?5A;<@>?<4;75::&6?5&6B85&<>&<6X5&>H<&5H?>bA57>G;76<5A&
8>67:N
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
31
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
Table 2-1
Contraction in corporate lending in December 2009 for different reference dates
BG
PL
SK
CZ
EE
LV
LT
RO
HU
Oct. 2008=100
96.4
96
95.5
91.2
94.1
92.7
90.3
95.4
90.7
Dec. 2008=100
96.3
95.9
96.7
92.2
95.1
92.9
90.6
98.4
92.7
G726%,(W'<$)"7#$&'%,#)6$&'*$#5(1'R267()$)9
;4)*-$6)2.+0*0%&&)10/*0$&3$&".)*($"1*+1.)&)2.*&".)*+1* ($B)2.:&%45&A;JJ5?57C5&;7&A>G5:<;C&CH??57C9&C?5A;<&?6<5:&;:&
N%19"&/*+2*$1)*$5*.4)*4+94)2.*+1*.4)*&)9+$18*B4+()*.4)* C856?89&=5?C5=<;B85&B5<@557&C>H7<?;5:&@4;C4&6?5&SH875?6B85D&
+1.)&)2.*&".)*$1*)%&$E-)1$6+1".)-*($"12*+2*$1)*$5*.4)* AH5& <>& <45;?& 4;F4& ?58;67C5& >7& 5_<5?768& J;767C;7FD& 67A& 85::&
SH875?6B85&C>H7<?;5:N&)7&RH7F6?9&67A&!>G67;6D&<45&;7<5?5:<&
Chart 2-8
?6<5:& >7& 8>67:& F?67<5A& ;7& A>G5:<;C& CH??57C9& ;7C?56:5A&
Average interest rates and spreads on new bank
loans to corporations
3
3
*S5?6F5&;7<5?5:<&?6<5&"V!bA57>G;76<5A&8>67:
*S5?6F5&;7<5?5:<&?6<5&RV(bA57>G;76<5A&8>67:
eN2
gNj
gN2
gN2
1Nj
1Nj
1N2
1N2
3Nj
3Nj
3N2
3N2
2Nj
2Nj
2N2
2N2
T67N&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH89&2o
-5=N&2o
'>SN&2o
T67N&2d
E6?N&2d
E69&2d
TH89&2d
-5=N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
E6?N&2a
E69&2a
TH89&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
gNj
-=?56A&>7&"V!&8>67:
-=?56A&>7&RV(&8>67:
<7),W'G86,$3('$6,'%$&%2&$),3'$('$'3"//,6,#%,'7/'"#),6,()'6$),('$#3').6,,E
07#).'"#),6*$#5'6$),(9
G726%,(W'BGY'$#3';<>9
32
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
!$
-M
<%&$*-)1$6+1".)-
RV
#5?&C57<
32
a
a
d
d
o
o
^
^
j
j
e
e
g
g
.Q
,h
I5CN&2o
#5?&C57<
#,
#5?&C57<
32
E6?N&2o
eN2
#5?&C57<
K3&)"-2
+W
I5CN&2a
e
E6?N&2o
e
#,
""
!$
I5CN&2a
2
o
-5=N&2a
2
o
-5=N&2a
1
32
TH75&2a
1
32
TH75&2a
e
3g
E6?N&2a
e
3g
E6?N&2a
^
3^
I5CN&2d
^
3^
I5CN&2d
d
11
3a
-5=N&2d
d
#5?&C57<
3a
-5=N&2d
32
TH75&2d
32
TH75&2d
31
=$6)2.+0*0%&&)10/*-)1$6+1".)-
E6?N&2d
31
#5?&C57<
11
E6?N&2d
3e
T67N&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH89&2o
-5=N&2o
'>SN&2o
T67N&2d
E6?N&2d
E69&2d
TH89&2d
-5=N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
E6?N&2a
E69&2a
TH89&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
3e
Interest rates on new corporate loans in the CEE
region
I5CN&2o
3^
-5=N&2o
#5?&C57<
-5=N&2o
M1.)&)2.*&".)2
TH75&2o
#5?&C57<
TH75&2o
3^
Chart 2-9
,%
RV
<7),W' I#' ).,' %$(,' 7/' G&7A$5"$1' ).,' 370,()"%' %266,#%+' %7#)$"#(' &7$#('
3,#70"#$),3'"#'*7).'G&7A$5'5762#$'$#3',2679
G726%,(W'<$)"7#$&'%,#)6$&'*$#5(9
!)-M-&$(&%R"&()'*'+)*,&)'%"!E"I)*!/&-/-%"E
G6?X5A89& ;7& <45& 86:<& `H6?<5?& >J& 122dD& 67A& A5:=;<5& <45&
F?6AH68&A5C8;75&<459&C>7<;7H5&<>&5_C55A&<45&85S58:&>J&><45?&
C>H7<?;5:& n+46?<& 1bapN& )7& <45& C6:5& >J& 5H?>bA57>G;76<5A&
8>67:D&<45&4;F45:<&7>G;768&;7<5?5:<&?6<5:&67A&=?5G;6&6?5&;7&
<45& !>G67;67& 67A& .H8F6?;67& B67X;7F& :5C<>?:N& %45:5& 6?5&
J>88>@5A&B9&<45&.68<;C&C>H7<?;5:D&@45?56:&;7<5?5:<&?6<5:&J>?&
C>?=>?6<;>7:& 67A& <45;?& =?5G;6& 6?5& <45& 8>@5:<& ;7& RH7F6?9&
67A&#>867AN
Box 2-1: Credit supply constrains
Banks can reduce their credit supply several ways. On the one hand,
Chart 2-10
banks may raise their interest rates to a greater extent than the
Distribution of new loan applications according
to risk
expected credit risk costs. On the other hand, banks may exclude
some riskier clients from potential borrowers, or require more
also decide to use a combination of these approaches.
Banks tighten basically for two reasons: due to weak ability or capacity
to lend and due to a decline in willingness to take risks. Ability to lend
means how much credit a bank is able to extend on the basis of its
liquidity and capital position. If a bank’s capital adequacy ratio is low
or its liquidity is stretched, and it cannot raise new capital or funds, its
lending capacity is limited. Willingness to take risks means how much
credit a bank intends to grant, and what size of risk it is ready to take
when selecting the portfolio.
!586<;S5&J?5`H57C9&>J&8>67&6==8;C6<;>7:
collateral, thus reducing the riskiness of the loan. Of course, banks may
y+H<b>JJz&=>;7<
For the corporate sector in particular, banks pay attention to the clients’
#?>B6B8;<9&>J&A5J6H8<&n#Ip&B9&:C>?;7F
probability of default (PD), and will accept or refuse a loan application
accordingly (Chart 2-10). In a recessionary environment, the distribution
of clients according to creditworthiness shifts to the right, the probability
of default of loan applicants grows, and thus the expected loss increases.
Even if the conditions of evaluating loan applications remain unchanged,
the bank will grant loans to fewer applicants. If the bank’s willingness to
take risks declines, credit conditions become tighter, and only more
' <7),W' :.,' -."),' $667-' (.7-(' ).$)' ).,' 3"()6"*2)"7#' "#' ).,' ,M$08&,'
(."/)(')7').,'6"4.)'*,%$2(,'7/').,'3,),6"76$)"#4',%7#70"%',#A"67#0,#)9'
:.,'*&$%5'$667-'"&&2()6$),(').$)').,'*$#5?('j%2)E7// ?'87"#)'(."/)(')7').,'
&,/)' 32,' )7' ).,' ."4.,6' 6"(5' $A,6("7#1' 6,(2&)"#4' "#' )"4.),6' %6,3")'
%7#3")"7#(9
G726%,W' ;"%.,&' B672.+1' N$#' S$&$"1' H7*,6' ;$65' XJKK\ZW' :.,'
,((,#)"$&('7/'6"(5'0$#$4,0,#)1';%S6$-EF"&&9
creditworthy clients will have access to credit. As shown in the chart
below, the ‘cut-off’ point (the condition of accepting or refusing the loan
In terms of financial stability the question whether the supply
application) will shift to the left.
constraint is caused by banks’ ability to lend or willingness to take
risks is very important. If there are problems with ability to lend,
In most cases, willingness to take risk depends on economic
individual banks’ capital and liquidity positions have to be
performance, developments in the loan portfolio and expectations. It
strengthened to facilitate lending. An increase in the willingness to
is difficult to measure the extent of and changes in this willingness; in
take risks can only be attained using indirect measures, improving
international practice the Senior Loan Officers survey on lending
the economic environment and reducing the expected loan losses
practices is used to gauge it in a qualitative manner, by asking banks
or it can be treated by risk sharing (e.g. through guarantee
about the extent of and reasons for tightening their credit conditions.
programmes).
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
33
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
Chart 2-11
Changes in credit conditions to non-financial
corporations in the banking sector
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
21&R1
2g&R3
2g&R1
2e&R3
2e&R1
2j&R3
2j&R1
2^&R3
2^&R1
2o&R3
2o&R1
2d&R3
2d&R1
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
32&R3&n5Np
2^&R3
2^&R1
2o&R3
2o&R1
2d&R3
2d&R1
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
32&R3&n5Np
21&R1
2g&R3
2g&R1
2e&R3
2e&R1
2j&R3
2j&R1
2^&R3
2^&R1
2o&R3
2o&R1
2d&R3
2d&R1
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
32&R3&n5Np
21&R1
2g&R3
2g&R1
2e&R3
2e&R1
2j&R3
2j&R1
2^&R3
2^&R1
2o&R3
2o&R1
2d&R3
2d&R1
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
32&R3&n5Np
"6:;7F
%;F4<57;7F
322
d2
^2
e2
12
2
m12
me2
m^2
md2
m322
'>7bJ;767C;68&
C>?=>?6<;>7:
,6?F5b&67A&E5A;HG
:;[5A&C>?=>?6<;>7:
-G688b&67A&E;C?>&:;[5A
C>?=>?6<;>7:
322
d2
^2
e2
12
2
m12
me2
m^2
md2
m322
+>GG5?C;68&?568&5:<6<5
<7),W'<,)'8,6%,#)$4,'7/'6,(87#3,#)('6,876)"#4')"4.),#"#4a,$("#49
G726%,W';<>9
Chart 2-12
+>7<?BH<;7F
<>&56:;7F
+>7<?;BH<;7F
<>&<;F4<57;7F
Factors contributing to changes in corporate credit
standards and conditions
322
d2
^2
e2
12
2
m12
me2
m^2
#5?&C57<
+6=;<68&
=>:;<;>7
,;`H;A;<9&
=>:;<;>7
"C>7>G;C
>H<8>>X
)7AH:<?9&:=5C;J;C
=?>B85G:
(6C<>?:&6JJ5C<;7F&?;:X
<6X;7F&C6=6C;<9
122d&R1
122a&qg
+467F5:&;7
C>G=5<;<;>7
57S;?>7G57<
+467F5:&;7&?;:X
<>85?67C5
#5?&C57< 322
d2
^2
e2
12
2
m12
me2
m^2
E6?X5<&
:46?5&F>68:
(6C<>?:&6JJ5C<;7F&?;:X&<6X;7F
;7C8;76<;>7
122a&q3
122a&qe
122a&q1
1232&R3&n5Np
<7),W'<,)'8,6%,#)$4,'7/'6,(87#3,#)('6,876)"#4')"4.),#"#4a,$("#49
G726%,W';<>9
=%)*.$*.4)*0$1.+1%$%2*.+94.)1+19*+1*1$1E3&+0)*0&)-+.*
0$1-+.+$128* 0$&3$&".+$12* 5"0)* )55)0.+#)* ()1-+19*
0$12.&"+1.2:& %45& 8>@& ;7<5?5:<& ?6<5:& >7& 5H?>bA57>G;76<5A&
=?>AHC<:&67A&<45&=?5G;6&>7&J>?;7<b&67A&5H?>bA57>G;76<5A&
=?>AHC<:&@4;C4&6?5&C8>:5&<>&<45&85S58&>J&<45&5H?>&6?56&G69&
68:>& ?5J85C<& 6& C>G=>:;<;>7& 5JJ5C<& ;7& <5?G:& >J& C8;57<&
C?5A;<@>?<4;75::N& +>?=>?6<5& =?>J;<6B;8;<9& A5<5?;>?6<5A&
C>7:;A5?6B89& ;7& 122aN& *:& 6& ?5:H8<D& ?5F6?A85::& <45& B67X:]&
B546S;>H?D& <45?5& 6?5& J5@5?& C?5A;<@>?<49& C>G=67;5:N&
R>@5S5?D& AH5& <>& <45;?& A5C8;7;7F& @;88;7F75::& <>& <6X5& ?;:X:D&
5S57&@;<4;7&<4;:&:G6885?&=>>8&>J&C>G=67;5:&B67X:&857A&>789&
<>& C8;57<:& @;<4& B5<<5?& C?5A;<@>?<4;75::& n.>_& 1b3pN& .67X:&
:<?;S5& <>& :585C<& C8;57<:& @;<4& F>>A& C?5A;<@>?<4;75::& B9&
<;F4<57;7F& <45;?& 7>7b=?;C5& C?5A;<& C>7A;<;>7:& n+46?<& 1b33pN&
8
34
%45?5&G69&B5&J;5?C5&=?;C5&C>G=5<;<;>7&J>?&<45:5&C8;57<:D&;N5N&
<45& ;7<5?5:<& ?6<5& =?5G;HG& ;:& 8>@N& %45& <;F4<57;7F& >J& 7>7b
=?;C5& C>7A;<;>7:& ;:& G6;789& 6==6?57<& ;7& 8;G;<6<;>7:& >7& <45&
G6_;GHG&G6<H?;<9&67A&<45&6G>H7<&>J&C?5A;<D&6:&@588&6:&;7&
4;F45?&C>886<5?68&?5`H;?5G57<:&67A&:<?;C<5?&8>67&G>7;<>?;7FN&
.67X:]&6B;8;<9&<>&857A&;G=?>S5A&;7&<45&86:<&`H6?<5?&>J&122af&
<45& 8;`H;A;<9& 67A& C6=;<68& =>:;<;>7& 68?56A9& =>;7<5A& <>& 67&
56:;7F& ;7& C?5A;<& C>7A;<;>7:N& .9& C>7<?6:<D& AH5& <>& <45&
A5<5?;>?6<;7F& 5C>7>G;C& 57S;?>7G57<& 67A& G>H7<;7F& 8>67&
8>::5:D& @;88;7F75::& <>& <6X5& ?;:X:& 8;G;<5A& 857A;7FN& )7AH:<?9b
:=5C;J;C&=?>B85G:&67A&<45&A5C8;75&;7&?;:X&<>85?67C5&=>;7<&<>&
JH?<45?&<;F4<57;7F&n+46?<&1b31pN
@&$B.4* +1* -$6)2.+0* 0$&3$&".)* ()1-+19* +2* )?3)0.)-*
5&$6* PQWQ* NP8* '%.* "* 2+91+5+0"1.* %32B+19* +2* $1(/*
"1.+0+3".)-* +1* PQWW:& *CC>?A;7F& <>& >H?& 5_=5C<6<;>7:D& <45&
5C>7>G9&G69&68?56A9&5_=67A&;7&R1D&G6;789&6:&6&?5:H8<&>J&
F?>@<4&;7&5_=>?<:N&*<&<45&:6G5&<;G5D&:H==89&:;A5&C>7:<?6;7<:&
>7& 857A;7F& G69& 56:5& :8>@89D& @;<4& 6& F?6AH68& ;7C?56:5& ;7&
857A;7F& 6C<;S;<9& B9& B67X:N& .67X:]& @;88;7F75::& <>& <6X5& ?;:X:&
G69& :<6?<& <>& ?;:5& J?>G& ;<:& CH??57<& 8>@& 85S58& @457& 67&
5C>7>G;C&?5C>S5?9&<6X5:&=86C5N
2.1.2 CORPORATE LENDING MAY BE
STIMULATED BY STATE GUARANTEES
AND INTEREST SUBSIDIES8
M1*.4)*0"2)*$5*0$&3$&".)*($"128*.4)*0$1.+1%)-*)?+2.)10)*
$5* 2%33(/* 0$12.&"+1.2* 6"/* 4+1-)&* "1* )0$1$6+0*
&)0$#)&/:* IH5& <>& <45& J;767C;68& C?;:;:D& B67X:]& C?5A;<&
C>7A;<;>7:&46S5&B5C>G5&<;F4<5?&;7&G679&C>H7<?;5:D&;7C8HA;7F&
RH7F6?9N& %45?5& ;:& 6& ?;:X& <46<& 67& ;7C?56:;7F& 7HGB5?& >J&
C>G=67;5:D& ;7C8HA;7F& :G688& 67A& G5A;HGb:;[5A& 57<5?=?;:5:&
n-E":p&;7&=6?<;CH86?D&@;88&B5&H76B85&<>&?575@&<45;?&5_=;?;7F&
@>?X;7F&C6=;<68&J;767C;7F&6:&@588&6:&:>G5&>J&<45;?&;7S5:<G57<&
8>67:& n6& :8;F4<5?& A5C8;75& 46:& B557& >B:5?S5A& ;7& 8>7Fb<5?G&
8>67:pN&%45&C?5A;<&C?H7C4&G6X5:&C>G=67;5:&;88;`H;A&>?&J>?C5:&
<45G& <>& C6??9& >H<& F?56<5?& 6AOH:<G57<:& ;7& 6C<;S;<9& <467&
A5:;?6B85D& @4;C4& G69& 4;7A5?& 67& 5C>7>G;C& ?5C>S5?9& <>& 6&
F?56<&A5F?55N
=%)* .$* .4)* ("07* $5* "* -)#)($3)-* 0"3+."(* 6"&7).8* $1)*
)55+0+)1.*B"/*$5*2.+6%(".+19*'"172H*B+((+191)22*.$*."7)*
&+272* 6"/* ')* .$* 6"7)* 9%"&"1.))* 3&$9&"66)2* 6$&)*
)55+0+)1.* +1* N%19"&/:& (>?& 86CX& >J& 6& A5S58>=5A& C6=;<68&
G6?X5<D&<45&:HCC5::&>J&=?>F?6GG5:&J>?&=H?C46:;7F&C>?=>?6<5&
:5CH?;<;5:&B9&<45&C57<?68&B67X&6:&46S5&B557&:557&;7&A5S58>=5A&
C>H7<?;5:&G69&B5&8;G;<5AN&R>@5S5?D&<45?5&6?5&<@>&@69:&J>?&
J;:C68& =>8;C9& <>& ;7<5?S575& 5JJ;C;57<89k& B9& =?>S;A;7F& :<6<5&
The statements here largely rely on the conclusions of the round-table conference entitled ‘Corporate and SME guarantee programmes, preferential loans’ held
at the Ministry of Finance (initiated by the European Bank Co-ordination Initiative) on 5 March with the participation of major domestic banks, important parent
banks as well as domestic and foreign authorities and guarantee institutions.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
!)-M-&$(&%R"&()'*'+)*,&)'%"!E"I)*!/&-/-%"E
Chart 2-13
Total and guaranteed loans to SMEs
#5?&C57< 12
3d
3^
3e
31
32
d
^
e
1
2
2a&qe
2a&qg
2a&q1
2a&q3
2d&qe
2d&qg
2d&q1
.7&RV(
2d&q3
jD222
eDj22
eD222
gDj22
gD222
1Dj22
1D222
3Dj22
3D222
j22
2
%45&>H<:<67A;7F&6G>H7<&F?67<5A&<>&-E"&57<5?=?;:5:&@;<4>H<
&<45&FH6?67<55&>J&Q6?67<;`6
%45&>H<:<67A;7F&6G>H7<&F?67<5A&@;<4&<45&FH6?67<55&>J&Q6?67<;`6
%45&=?>=>?<;>7&>J&FH6?67<55A&8>67:&B9&Q6?67<;`6&<>&<45&<><68&
75@&S>8HG5&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
%45&6::HG5A&C?5A;<&?;:X&B9&Q6?67<;`6&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
<7),W'S$6$#)"O$'i6)9'867A"3,('42$6$#),,('/76'$8867M9'kK'8,6'%,#)'7/').,'
)7)$&'$072#)'7/'&7$#(1').2(').,'$072#)'7/'$%)2$&&+'42$6$#),,3'&7$#('"('
(0$&&,6').$#').,')7)$&'$072#)'7/'-$66$#),3'&7$#(9
G726%,(W'S$6$#)"O$'i6)91';<>9
FH6?67<55& >?& ;7<5?5:<& :HB:;A;5:D& ;N5N& B9& =6?<89& :46?;7F& <45&
?;:X:&B5<@557&<45&B67X:&67A&<45&:<6<5N&)7&<4;:&@69D&<45&:<6<5&
G69& ?5AHC5& ;<:& >@7& 5_=5C<5A& 8>::5:N& #?>S;A;7F& n:<6<5p&
FH6?67<55:&;:&>J<57&5S57&G>?5&6AS67<6F5>H:&<467&=?>S;A;7F&
;7<5?5:<& :HB:;A;5:Na& .9& 6::HG;7F& 6& =6?<& >J& <45& ?;:X:& J?>G&
B67X:]& B6867C5& :455<:D& <45& :<6<5& C67& 56:5& B67X:]& 7>7b=?;C5&
C>7A;<;>7:&67A&?5AHC5&>?&5S57&=H<&67&57A&<>&<45&=457>G57>7&
>J&C?5A;<&?6<;>7;7F&;7&<45&-E"&:5C<>?N&%4;:&@>H8A&G;<;F6<5&
<45&=?5::H?5&>7&B67X:]&C6=;<68&67A&;7C?56:5&B67X:]&@;88;7F75::&
<>&<6X5&?;:X:N&*<&<45&:6G5&<;G5D&<45&=?>S;:;>7&>J&FH6?67<55:&
67A& ;7<5?5:<& :HB:;A;5:& @>H8A& ;G=?>S5& <45& =?;C5& J6C<>?& 6:&
@588N& )7& <45& C6:5& >J& =?>S;A;7F& FH6?67<55:D& <45& ;7<5?5:<& ?6<5&
@>H8A& B5& 8>@5?& B5C6H:5& >J& 6& A5C8;75& ;7& <45& C?5A;<& ?;:X&
=?5G;HGD&@4;85&;7&<45&C6:5&>J&;7<5?5:<&:HB:;A;5:&<45&;7<5?5:<&
?6<5&@>H8A&B5&8>@5?&6:&6&?5:H8<&>J&<45&=6?<;68&A;S;:;>7&>J&<45&
J;767C;7F&C>:<N
;4)*%.+(+2".+$1*$5*0&)-+.*9%"&"1.))2*3&$#+-)-*.$*'"172*
+2* +10&)"2+19* 6"&7)-(/8* "(.4$%94* .4)&)* "&)* 2.&$19*
(+6+.2* .$* 5%&.4)&* 9&$B.4:WQ& )<& ;:& G6;789& Q6?67<;`6& W?<N&
<46<&;:&B54;7A&<45&C?5A;<&FH6?67<55:&=?>S;A5A&<>&B67X:N&.9&
57Ab122a& <><68& 8>67:& 5_<57A5A& @;<4& Q6?67<;`6]:& FH6?67<55&
68?56A9& 5_C55A5A& RV(& ^g2& B;88;>7D& @4;C4& ;:& 756?89& 3d& =5?&
C57<&>J&<><68&B67X&8>67:&<>&-E":N&Q6?67<;`6&W?<N&=?>S;A5:&
JH88& FH6?67<55& J>?& 6==?>_;G6<589& d2& =5?& C57<& >J& <45& <><68&
FH6?67<55A&8>67:D&;N5N&J>?&RV(&j2^&B;88;>7&n+46?<&1b3gp&>J&
@4;C4&6==?>_;G6<589&RV(&3o&B;88;>7&46S5&B557&?5A55G5A&;7&
122aD& ?5=?5:57<;7F& 6& ?5A5G=<;>7& ?6<5& >J& gNe& =5?& C57<N& %45&
;7C?56:5&;7&H7C>7A;<;>768&FH6?67<55:&@6:&H76B85&<>&=?5S57<&
<45& A5C8;75& ;7& 857A;7FD& BH<& ;<& G69& 46S5& G;<;F6<5A& ;<:&
G6F7;<HA5N&$75&=?>B85G&;:&<46<&;7&<45&1232&BHAF5<&<45&<><68&
6G>H7<& >J& FH6?67<55:& ;:& 8;G;<5A& <>& RV(& jj2& B;88;>7D& 67A&
RV(&3jN1&B;88;>7&46:&B557&688>C6<5A&;7&<45&BHAF5<&<>&C>S5?&
?5A5G=<;>7:N& %45& CH??57<& FH6?67<55& J6C;8;<9& A>5:& 7><&
=?>G;:5& 67& ;7C?56:5A& 6S6;86B;8;<9D& 67A& 6::HG;7F& <46<& <45&
?5A5G=<;>7&?6<5&?5G6;7:&<45&:6G5&<45&?5A5G=<;>7&5_=57:5:&
G567& 6& <;F4<& C>7:<?6;7<& 6:& @588N& IH5& <>& <45& :<?;C<& BHAF5<&
C>7:<?6;7:& G6;789& "V& JH7A& :4>H8A& B5& ?5688>C6<5A33N& %45&
;7C?56:5& ;7& <45& 6G>H7<& >J& FH6?67<55:& :4>H8A& B5& =?5b
677>H7C5A& 67A& =?5A;C<6B85D& 6:& <4>:5& C>7C5?75A& C677><&
6AOH:<&<>&?6=;A89&C467F;7F&C>7A;<;>7:&>?&C67&>789&A>&:>&@;<4&
A;JJ;CH8<;5:N& )7& 6AA;<;>7D& 6<& =?5:57<& <45& 6S6;86B;8;<9& >J& <45&
FH6?67<55&=?>F?6GG5:&;:&8;G;<5A&B9&6AG;7;:<?6<;S5&BH?A57:&
6:& @588& 6:& <45& A;S5?F57<& 67A& C>G=8;C6<5A& :<?HC<H?5& >J& <45&
=?>F?6GG5N& )<& @>H8A& B5& 75C5::6?9& <>& :;G=8;J9& <45&
=?>F?6GG5:D&<>&586B>?6<5&6&=?>F?6GG5&;7&A5<6;8&<46<&6;G:&
6<& >75& >?& <@>& G6;7& ;7AH:<?;5:D& 67A& <>& A5<5?G;75& <45&
C>7A;<;>7:&>J&=?>S;A;7F&<45&FH6?67<55:&;7&6&C>H7<5?C9C8;C68&
G6775?N31
J.+(+2".+$1*$5*($"1*3&$9&"66)2*B+.4*+1.)&)2.*2%'2+-/*
+2* ($B:* *8<4>HF4& J?>G& '>S5GB5?& 122d& <45& F>S5?7G57<&
;7<?>AHC5A& J>H?& 75@& =?>F?6GG5:& <>& :H==>?<& <45& -E"&
:5C<>?]:&6CC5::&<>&C?5A;<&67A&<45:5&6==56?5A&;7&<45&:H==89&>J&
<45&86?F5:<&C>GG5?C;68&B67X:&;7&122a&R3&6<&<45&86<5:<D&<45;?&
5JJ5C<&>7&C>G=67;5:]&8>67&:<?HC<H?5&46:&?5G6;75A&G>A5?6<5N&
%><68& :HB:;A;:5A& 8>67:& 5_<57A5A& @;<4& <45& =6?<;C;=6<;>7& >J&
A>G5:<;C& B67X:3g& 5S57& A5C8;75AD& J688;7F& B9& 6==?>_;G6<589&
jN1&=5?&C57<&6<&<45&677H68&85S58&B9&57Ab122a&n5_C467F5&?6<5&
6AOH:<5A& J;FH?5pN& -HB:;A;:5A& 8>67:& A5C8;75A& 6<& 6& :>G5@46<&
:8>@5?&=6C5&<467&<45&<><68&C>?=>?6<5&=>?<J>8;>&n+46?<&1b3jpN&
*CC>?A;7F89D& <45& :46?5& >J& :HB:;A;:5A& 8>67:& @;<4;7& <><68&
C>?=>?6<5&8>67:&;7C?56:5A&<>&:8;F4<89&6B>S5&j&=5?&C57<N&
Stefan Arping–Gyöngyi Loránth–Alan Morrison: ”Public Initiatives to Support Entrepreneurs: Credit Guarantees versus Co-Funding,” Journal of Financial Stability
(2009)
10
The Garantiqa undertakes a maximum 80 per cent guarantee for individual loan agreements, 70 per cent of which may be counter-guaranteed by the state.
11
The amount of guarantees may be significantly increased by using the resources of the so-called JEREMIE (Joint European Resources for Micro to Medium
Enterprises) guarantee programme. This programme may provide a framework for guarantees behind new loans provided for business development, and – if
allowed by the European Commission – also for counter-guarantees of already existing loans that meet the relevant criteria. The details of possible uses and
concrete implementation are being discussed by the guarantee companies, the authorities and the EU Commission.
12
This latter step would be needed because currently the gradual tightening of the guarantee conditions results in a tightening of banks’ credit conditions.
Consequently, the guarantee programmes are in fact procyclical, while the objective would be to attain a countercyclical effect.
13
They include: For a New Hungary Enterprise Development Loan Programme, For a New Hungary Agricultural Development Loan Programme, Széchenyi loan,
Széchenyi card credit, Agricultural support prefinancing, loans related to grants from the European Union, credit extended with institutional support from the
European Union (refinancing, guarantee undertaking) as well as other loans with interest subsidy.
9
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
35
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
O00)22*.$*2%'2+-+2)-*($"1*3&$9&"66)2*0$1.+1%)2*.$*')*
(+6+.)-:* %45& ;7<5?5:<& ?6<5& >7& :HB:;A;:5A& 8>67:& ;:& 1mg& =5?&
C57<& 8>@5?& <467& G6?X5<& ?6<5:N& %45& 8>@& H<;8;:6<;>7& G69& B5&
5_=86;75A&B9&<45&?586<;S589&<;F4<&C>7A;<;>7:N&#?6C<;C6889&688&>J&
<45& =?>F?6GG5:& n;7C8HA;7F& @>?X;7F& C6=;<68& J;767C;7F&
=?>F?6GG5:&6:&@588p&C67&>789&B5&H:5A&J>?&;7S5:<G57<&>?&6<&
856:<& 6C<;S;<9& 5_=67A;7F& =H?=>:5:& nAH5& =?;G6?;89& <>& <45&
?585S67<& "V& ?5FH86<;>7:pD& 6& C>7A;<;>7& @4;C4& ;:& A;JJ;CH8<& <>&
JH8J;8&;7&<45&=5?;>A&>J&5C>7>G;C&?5C5::;>7N&,>67&?5=86C5G57<&
;:& 68:>& 5_C8HA5AN& '5S5?<4585::D& 6<& <45& 57A& >J& 86:<& 956?& <45&
C>7A;<;>7:& 56:5A& :>G5@46<k& <45& @>?X;7F& C6=;<68& C?5A;<&
=?>F?6GG5&@6:&68:>&>=575A&J>?&<45&C>G=67;5:&>=5?6<;7F&;7&
<45&<?6A;7F&:5C<>?N&
2.1.3 THE CHANGE IN THE
DENOMINATION STRUCTURE OF NEW
LOANS TO HOUSEHOLDS IS A
FAVOURABLE DEVELOPMENT,
ALTHOUGH THE DECLINE IN FOREIGN
CURRENCY LOANS CAN ONLY BE SLOW
?6<5&A5C8;75A&;7&6&75C5::6?9&67A&A5:;?6B85&@69&n+46?<&1b3epN&
%4;:& 6JJ5C<5A& 5S5?9A69& C>7:HG5?& F>>A:& <>& 6& 85::5?& 5_<57<&
67A& =H?C46:5:& >J& C>7:HG5?& AH?6B85:& m& 5:=5C;6889& G><>?&
S54;C85:& m& <>& 6& F?56<5?& 5_<57<N& *:& 6& ?5:H8<D& <45& J;767C;7F&
:<?HC<H?5& >J& C>7:HG=<;>7& 68:>& 46:& C467F5AN& (?>G& <45&
:5C>7A& 468J& >J& 122a& <45& 8>67& <>& C>7:HG=<;>7& ?6<5& B5C6G5&
75F6<;S5D& G567;7F& <46<& 4>H:54>8A:& 6?5& J;767C;7F& <45;?&
C>7:HG=<;>7& >789& J?>G& <45;?& ;7C>G5& 67A& H:;7F& <45;?&
=?5S;>H:89&6S6;86B85&@568<4N
KB+22* 5&"10E-)1$6+1".)-* ($"12* 4"#)* 5"(()1* .$* "* #)&/*
($B*()#)(*"1-*')0"%2)*$5*.4+2*+1.)&)2.*0$1-+.+$12*4"#)*
')0"6)* .+94.)&:* )7& ?5:=>7:5& <>& <45& 8;`H;A;<9& <57:;>7:&
?5:H8<;7F&J?>G&<45&J;767C;68&C?;:;:&67A&AH5&<>&<45&A5C8;75&;7&
?;:Xb<6X;7FD& B67X:& =?6C<;C6889& :H:=57A5A& <45& 5_<57:;>7& >J&
-@;::& J?67CbA57>G;76<5A& 8>67:D& @4;C4& 46A& A>G;76<5A&
=?5S;>H:89D& 67A& 5_<57A5A& J>?5;F7& CH??57C9& 8>67:& <>& <45;?&
C8;57<:&>789&;7&5H?>&J?>G&86:<&956?&>7N&*:&6&C>7:5`H57C5&>J&
<4;:& CH??57C9& :4;J<D& AH5& <>& <45& A;JJ5?57C5& ;7& B6:5& ;7<5?5:<&
?6<5:&n"V!m+R(p&<45&*#!&>J&75@&8>67:&;7C?56:5A&G6?X5A89D&
@4;C4& B9& ;<:58J& ?5AHC5A& <45& 6G>H7<& >J& 8>67:& 6S6;86B85& <>&
C8;57<:N& )7& <45& C6:5& >J& 4>H:;7F& 8>67:D& <45& ;7C?56:5& ;7&
;7:<68G57<:&G69&46S5&J6;85A&<45&57<;?5&B>??>@;7F&<?67:6C<;>7N&
R>@5S5?D&B5C6H:5&>J&<45&G>?5&:>H7A&A57>G;76<;>7&:<?HC<H?5&
>J& <45& 75@& 8>67:& @5& C>7:;A5?& <45& A5C8;75& ;7& -@;::& J?67Cb
A57>G;76<5A&857A;7F&<>&B5&6&=>:;<;S5&A5S58>=G57<N
23&q3
23&q1
23&qg
23&qe
21&q3
21&q1
21&qg
21&qe
2g&q3
2g&q1
2g&qg
2g&qe
2e&q3
2e&q1
2e&qg
2e&qe
2j&q3
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
M1* 3"&"(()(* B+.4* .4)* -&$3* +1* 0$12%63.+$18* ()1-+19*
"0.+#+./*+2*"(2$*-)0(+1+19:&)7&122^&4>H:54>8A:&?5:=>7A5A&
<>&<45&A5<5?;>?6<;>7&;7&<45;?&;7C>G5&=>:;<;>7:&AH5&<>&J;:C68&
<;F4<57;7F&B9&:G>><4;7F&<45;?&C>7:HG=<;>7&67A&;7C?56:;7F&
<45;?&B>??>@;7FN&.9&C>7<?6:<D&;7&122a&6:&6&?5:H8<&>J&<45&C?;:;:&
<45& J688& ;7& A;:=>:6B85& ;7C>G5& 67A& <45& H7C5?<6;7& 5C>7>G;C&
>H<8>>X&85A&<>&6&?5AHC<;>7&;7&C>7:HG=<;>7D&<4H:&C>7:HG=<;>7& A&+0)* 0$63).+.+$1* +1* .4)* 5$&+1.* 6$&.9"9)* 6"&7).* +2*
2.&)19.4)1+198*.4)*3&)6+"*$1*5$&)+91*0%&&)10/*($"12*
&)6"+1*4+94:&)7&=6:<&956?:&B67X:&@5?5&G6;789&57F6F5A&;7&
Chart 2-14
?;:X&C>G=5<;<;>7D&67A&AH5&<>&<45&:<?>7F&A5G67A&<459&@5?5&
The relationship between consumption and lending14
6B85& <>& =?;C5& 6& :;F7;J;C67<& =?5G;HG& ;7<>& <45& 8>67:N& %45&
#5?&C57< a 8;`H;A;<9& <57:;>7:& 67A& 86<5?& :<?>7F5?& ?;:X& 6S5?:;>7& 85A& <>& 6&
#5?&C57<
ag
d :HB:<67<;68& A?>=& ;7& 75@& 857A;7FD& 67A& 6CC>?A;7F89& 7>& =?;C5&
a1
o
a3
^ C>G=5<;<;>7& 6G>7F& =6?<;C;=67<:& 46:& B557& A5<5C<5A& ;7& <4;:&
a2
j =5?;>AN& R>@5S5?D& B9& <45& 57A& >J& 86:<& 956?& F?>@<4& B5C6G5&
da
e
dd
g G>?5&;G=>?<67<D&856A;7F&<>&6&:<?>7F5?&=?;C5&C>G=5<;<;>7&;7&
do
1 J>?;7<&G>?<F6F5&8>67:N&*:&6&?5:H8<D&;7<5?5:<&?6<5:&>7&J>?;7<b
d^
3
dj
2 A57>G;76<5A&G>?<F6F5&8>67:&A5C?56:5AN&)7&<45&J;768&G>7<4:&
de
m3
dg
m1 >J& <45& 956?& :5S5?68& B67X:& 677>H7C5A& 8>67& =?>AHC<:& @;<4&
d1
mg *#!:& 6?>H7A& 32& =5?& C57<& <;5A& <>& 6& B57C4G6?X& ?6<5& n+46?<&
d3
1b3jpN& %45:5& 8>67:& 6?5& B5C>G;7F& ;7C?56:;7F89& C>G=5<;<;S5&
S;:bxbS;:& J>?5;F7& CH??57C9& 8>67:f& <4;:& G69& 68?56A9& ;7A;C6<5&
+l/
R>H:54>8A&C?5A;<&J8>@&l&4>H:54>8A&C>7:HG=<;>7
67& H=<H?7& ;7& J>?;7<& G>?<F6F5& 857A;7FN& %45& A5C8;75& ;7& <45&
n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
JH7A;7F&C>:<:&@6:&>789&=6?<;6889&=6::5A&<>&5H?>bA57>G;76<5A&
#>8;7>GN&nR>H:54>8A&C?5A;<&J8>@&l&4>H:54>8A&C>7:HG=<;>7
n?;F4<b467A&:C685pp
8>67:D& 67A& <45& =?5G;6& F?5@& <>& 6& F?56<5?& 5_<57<& <467& ?;:X&
C>:<:N&
G726%,W';<>9
14
36
Not only consumer credit, but total loans are used for illustrating the relationship between consumption and lending. This is basically justified by the fact that
the majority of housing loans is related to buying second-hand homes; therefore, it financed consumption indirectly.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
!)-M-&$(&%R"&()'*'+)*,&)'%"!E"I)*!/&-/-%"E
Chart 2-15
Chart 2-16
Average APRC on new loans
Interest rates on new housing loans in international
comparison
G726%,W';<>9
M1*N%19"&/*B+.4+1*.4)*4$%2)4$(-*2)0.$&*'$.4*-$6)2.+0*
0%&&)10/E-)1$6+1".)-* "1-* )%&$E-)1$6+1".)-*
+1.)&)2.* &".)2* "&)* 4+94* +1* &)9+$1"(* 0$63"&+2$1:& *&
A>G;767<& =>?<;>7& >J& 4>H:54>8A& 8>67:& ;7& <45& ?5F;>7& ;:&
G>?<F6F5&8>67:D&6&:G6885?&=6?<&>J&@4;C4&;:&H:5A&J>?&4>H:;7F&
67A&6&86?F5?&=6?<&H:5A&J>?&C>7:HG=<;>7N&)7&<5?G:&>J&4>H:;7F&
8>67:&A57>G;76<5A&;7&A>G5:<;C&CH??57C9D&>789&;7&!>G67;6&
6?5& ;7<5?5:<& ?6<5:& 4;F45?& <467& <4>:5& >J& <45& J>?;7<& G>?<F6F5&
8>67:&;7&RH7F6?9&n+46?<&1b3^pD&@4;C4&C67&B5&5_=86;75A&B9&
<45:5&C>H7<?;5:]&4;F4&?;:X&=?5G;6N&RH7F6?9&;:&68:>&67&>H<8;5?&
;7& <5?G:& >J& <45& ;7<5?5:<& ?6<5:& 6==8;5A& ;7& 5H?>bA57>G;76<5A&
857A;7FN& )7<5?5:<& ?6<5:& >7& 5H?>bA57>G;76<5A& 4>H:;7F& 8>67:&
;7C?56:5A& G6?X5A89& 6<& 57Ab122d& 67A& 56?89& 122aD& 67A& 46S5&
7><&J>88>@5A&<45&"+.]:&;7<5?5:<&?6<5&CH<:&:>&J6?D&C>7:5`H57<89&
<45:5&;7<5?5:<&?6<5:&46S5&=?6C<;C6889&B557&:<6F76<;7F&n:;G;86?&
A5S58>=G57<:&6?5&>B:5?S5A&>789&;7&.H8F6?;6pN&
+W
.Q
a
!$
I5CN&2d
#,
,%
-M
RV
<%&$*-)1$6+1".)-
#5?&C57<
I5CN&2a
1
-5=N&2a
1
TH75&2a
e
E6?N&2a
e
-5=N&2d
^
TH75&2d
^
E6?N&2d
d
I5CN&2o
d
-5=N&2o
32
TH75&2o
32
#5?&C57<
a
j
j
e
e
g
g
.Q
,%
#,
!$
""
I5CN&2a
^
-5=N&2a
^
TH75&2a
o
E6?N&2a
o
I5CN&2d
d
-5=N&2d
d
TH75&2d
<7),W' !76,"4#' %266,#%+' "#),6,()' 6$),(' 0,$#' ).,' $A,6$4,' CTHB' A$&2,' 7/'
/76,"4#'%266,#%+'3,#70"#$),3'&7$#('-,"4.),3'*+'%7#)6$%)(9
3e
31
E6?N&2d
RV(b"V!&A;JJ5?57C5&;7&*#!+
#5?&C57<
31
I5CN&2o
$C<N&2a
TH89&2a
*=?N&2a
T67N&2a
$C<N&2d
TH89&2d
*=?N&2d
ge
g1
g2
1d
1^
1e
11
12
3d
3^
3e
31
32
d
^
e
1
2
=$6)2.+0*0%&&)10/*-)1$6+1".)-
#5?&C57<
-5=N&2o
"V!
#5?&C57<
3e
TH75&2o
RV(
$C<N&2o
TH89&2o
*=?N&2o
(i
T67N&2d
A)&2$1"(*($"12
#5?&C57<
T67N&2o
ge
g1
g2
1d
1^
1e
11
12
3d
3^
3e
31
32
d
^
e
1
2
3^
3j
3e
3g
31
33
32
a
d
o
^
j
e
g
1
3
2
E6?N&2o
#5?&C57<
E6?N&2o
X$&.9"9)*($"12
#5?&C57<
T67N&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH89&2o
-5=N&2o
'>SN&2o
T67N&2d
E6?N&2d
E69&2d
TH89&2d
-5=N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
E6?N&2a
E69&2a
TH89&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
3^
3j
3e
3g
31
33
32
a
d
o
^
j
e
g
1
3
2
,h
RV
<7),W' I#' ).,' %$(,' 7/' G&7A$5"$1' ).,' 370,()"%' %266,#%+' %7#)$"#(' &7$#('
3,#70"#$),3'"#'*7).'G&7A$5'5762#$'$#3',2679
G726%,W'<$)"7#$&'%,#)6$&'*$#5(9
;4)*)?0)22+#)(/*($$2)*0$1-+.+$12*$'2)&#)-*+1*3&)#+$%2*
/)"&2*4"#)*')0$6)*.+94.)&:*c;<4&<45&8;`H;A;<9&C>7:<?6;7<:&
6?;:;7F& 6:& 6& ?5:H8<& >J& <45& J;767C;68& C?;:;:D& B67X:& <;F4<575A&
<45;?&7>7b=?;C5&C>7A;<;>7:&:;F7;J;C67<89&n+46?<&1b3opN&%459&
5::57<;6889& <5?G;76<5A& :>8589& C>886<5?68bB6:5A& 857A;7FD& 67A&
;7C?56:5A& <45& S68H5& >J& <45& ?5`H;?5A& C>886<5?68N& *8<4>HF4&
J>88>@;7F& <45& 56:;7F& >J& 8;`H;A;<9& <57:;>7:& B67X:]& 6B;8;<9& <>&
857A&;G=?>S5A&C>7:;A5?6B89D&<4;:&A;A&7><&856A&<>&67&;7C?56:5&
;7& @;88;7F75::& <>& 857AN& c5& :55& <45& C>??5C<;>7& >J& C?5A;<&
C>7A;<;>7:D&@4;C4&46A&B5C>G5&<>>&8>>:5&;7&?5C57<&956?:D&6:&
6&J6S>H?6B85&A5S58>=G57<N
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
37
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
Chart 2-17
Chart 2-18
Credit conditions on households in the banking
sector
Distribution of net household credit flow between
credit institutions and financial enterprises, and as
well as main products
#5?&C57<
322
d2
^2
e2
12
2
m12
me2
m^2
md2
m322
.7&RV(
.7&RV(
e22
g22
g22
122
122
322
322
2
2
m322
m322
.67X:&67A&B?67C45:
;4)* -)0(+1)* +1* 4$%2)4$(-* ($"12* +2* 2+91+5+0"1.* +1*
&)9+$1"(*0$63"&+2$1:*c;<4;7&<45&?5F;>7&<45&A976G;C:&>J&
857A;7F& <>& 4>H:54>8A:& J8HC<H6<5A& ;7& 6& @;A5& ?67F5& ;7& 122aN&&
*& C>7:;A5?6B85& 5_=67:;>7& ;7& <><68& 8>67:& @6:& >B:5?S5A& ;7&
C>H7<?;5:& @;<4& 8>@& A>G5:<;C& ;7<5?5:<& ?6<5& 85S58:& 67A&
C>7:HG=<;>7b:<;GH86<;7F&5C>7>G;C&=>8;C;5:N&%45&A976G;C:&
>J& 857A;7F& <>& 4>H:54>8A:& ;7& ":<>7;6& A5C8;75A& <>& 6& :;G;86?&
5_<57<& 6:& ;7& RH7F6?9D& @4;85& <45& A?>=& @6:& 5S57& F?56<5?& ;7&
,;<4H67;6D&,6<S;6&67A&!>G67;6&n+46?<&1b3apN&%45&H7A5?89;7F&
?56:>7& J>?& <45& A5S58>=G57<:& >B:5?S5A& ;7& <45:5& 86<<5?&
38
2a&qe
2a&qg
2a&q1
2a&q3
2d&qe
2d&qg
(;767C;68&57<5?=?;:5:
%><68&8>67:
.7&RV(
j22
e22
g22
122
322
R>H:;7F&8>67:
2a&qe
2a&qg
2a&q1
2a&q3
2d&qe
2d&qg
2d&q1
2d&q3
2o&qe
2
2o&qg
2o&q1
2o&q3
;$."(* ($"12* .$* 4$%2)4$(-2* -)0(+1)-* 0$12+-)&"'(/:*
-<?57F<457;7F&>75&67><45?D&<45&H7J6S>H?6B85&A5G67A&67A& j22 .7&RV(
:H==89& J6C<>?:& 85A& <>& 6& A5C8;75& ;7& 857A;7F& 6C<;S;<9N&
+>7:5`H57<89D&6J<5?&G679&956?:D&<45&A976G;C:&>J&857A;7F&<>& e22
4>H:54>8A:& :8;==5A& ;7<>& 75F6<;S5& <5??;<>?9& ;7& 122ak& <45&
G6F7;<HA5&>J&<45&J688&@6:&3N1&=5?&C57<&6<&<45&677H68&85S58& g22
n+46?<& 1b3dpN& IH?;7F& <45& 956?D& <45& A5C8;75& ;7& >H<:<67A;7F&
122
8>67:& 6CC585?6<5AD& 67A& <4;:& @6:& >789& :8>@5A& A>@7& B9&
A5G67A&J>?&8>67:&B?>HF4<&J>?@6?A&AH5&<>&<45&<5?G;76<;>7& 322
>J& :<6<5& :HB:;A9& >J& 4>H:;7F& 8>67:N& *<& <45& :6G5& <;G5D& 6:& 6&
2
?5:H8<& >J& <45& A5C?56:5& ;7& :685:& >J& 75@& G><>?& S54;C85:D& 6&
A5C8;75&>J&G>?5&<467&j&=5?&C57<&;7&8>67:&@6:&5_=5?;57C5A&
6<& J;767C;68& 57<5?=?;:5:D& @4;C4& 6?5& J>CH:5A& G>:<89& >7& m322
S54;C85&J;767C;7FN
2d&q1
2d&q3
2o&qe
G726%,W';<>9
2o&qg
+>7:HG5?&8>67:
<7),W'<,)'8,6%,#)$4,'7/'6,(87#3,#)('6,876)"#4')"4.),#"#4a,$("#49
15
j22
e22
2o&q1
R>H:;7F&8>67:
j22
2o&q3
#5?&C57<
21&R1
2g&R3
2g&R1
2e&R3
2e&R1
2j&R3
2j&R1
2^&R3
2^&R1
2o&R3
2o&R1
2d&R3
2d&R1
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
32&R3
nJ>?5C6:<p
322
d2
^2
e2
12
2
m12
me2
m^2
md2
m322
m322
+>7:HG5?&8>67:
<7),W'F70,',O2")+1'8,6(7#$&1'A,."%&,'/"#$#%"#4'&7$#(',)%9'$6,'%70*"#,3'
"#'%7#(20,6'&7$#(9
G726%,W';<>9
C>H7<?;5:& G69& 46S5& B557& <46<& @4;85& C>7:HG=<;>7& A5C8;75A&
B9&6?>H7A&^&=5?&C57<&;7&RH7F6?9D&6&A?>=&>J&G>?5&<467&32&
=5?&C57<&@6:&>B:5?S5A&;7&!>G67;6&67A&<45&.68<;C&C>H7<?;5:&
;7&122aN3j
In these latter countries the fall in consumption was significantly exacerbated by the fact that before the crisis the rapid credit expansion was accompanied by
an asset price bubble as well.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
!)-M-&$(&%R"&()'*'+)*,&)'%"!E"I)*!/&-/-%"E
Chart 2-19
Chart 2-20
Lending to households among the new EU member
states (December 2008=100%), and the relationship
between credit and consumption
New loan agreements and total loans by
denomination in the banking sector
m1j
3j
+?5A;<&F?>@<4&n122a&/b>b/D&rp
<7),W':.,'72)()$#3"#4'$072#)'7#'&7$#('"(',M%.$#4,'6$),'$3@2(),39'Y#'
).,' 6"4.)' %.$6)1' &$64,6' 6.70*2(' "#3"%$),(' $' &$64,6' SNT' %7#)6$%)"7#9'
>2&4$6"$' X>SZ1' B=,%.' H,89' XBiZ1' R()7#"$' XRRZ1' _$)A"$' X_eZ1' _").2$#"$'
X_:Z1'F2#4$6+'XFDZ1'T7&$#3'XT_Z1'H70$#"$'XHYZ1'G&7A$5"$'XG]Z9
G726%,(W'<$)"7#$&'%,#)6$&'*$#5(1'R267()$)9
;4)*24"&)*$5*5$&+1.*($"12*B+.4+1*1)B*($"12*+2*+10&)"2+19:&
*& J6S>H?6B85& <?57A& C67& B5& ;A57<;J;5A& ;7& <45& CH??57C9&
C>G=>:;<;>7& >J& 75@& 8>67& 6F?55G57<:N& %45& <;F4<57;7F& >J&
C?5A;<& C>7A;<;>7:& G6;789& 6JJ5C<5A& 8>7Fb<5?G& 67A& <9=;C6889&
J>?5;F7&CH??57C9&n;7C8HA;7F&B><4&4>H:;7F&67A&4>G5&5`H;<9p&
8>67:&n+46?<&1b12pN&%45?5@;<4&6J<5?&<45&<5?G;76<;>7&>J&<45&
F>S5?7G57<b:HB:;A;:;7F&:C45G5&6<&<45&57A&>J&TH75&122a&75@&
J>?;7<bA57>G;76<5A& G>?<F6F5& 8>67:& @;<4& G>?5& J6S>H?6B85&
;7<5?5:<& ?6<5& C>7A;<;>7:& :<6?<5A& <>& F6;7& F?>H7A& J?>G&
I5C5GB5?&122aN&
=%)*.$*.4)*2($B*-)0(+1)*+1*4$%2)4$(-*5$&)+91*0%&&)10/*
($"128* .4)* #%(1)&"'+(+./* $5* .4)* 5+1"10+"(* 2/2.)6* +2*
-)0&)"2+19*$1(/*9&"-%"((/:*%45&:46?5&>J&J>?5;F7&CH??57C9&
8>67:& @;<4;7& 4>H:54>8A& 8>67:& ;:& A5C8;7;7F& :8;F4<89D& BH<& :<;88&
6G>H7<:&<>&6?>H7A&o2&=5?&C57<N&IH5&<>&<45&4;F4&=?>=>?<;>7&
'>SN&2a
-5=N&2a
TH89&2a
E69&2a
E6?N&2a
T67N&2a
'>SN&2d
-5=N&2d
TH89&2d
E69&2d
E6?N&2d
T67N&2d
aD222
dD222
oD222
^D222
jD222
eD222
gD222
1D222
3D222
2
L%.2."1-+19*"6$%1.
.7&RV(
#5?&C57<
ej
e2
gj
g2
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
'>SN&2a
32
RV(
T#/
"V!
+R(
#?>=>?<;>7&>J&RV(&A57>G;76<5A&8>67:&
n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
#?>=>?<;>7&>J&RV(&A57>G;76<5A&G>?<F6F5&8>67:&
n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
-5=N&2a
j
2
TH89&2a
mj
m12
2
2
E69&2a
mj
3j
E6?N&2a
2
m3j
,h
j2
T67N&2a
""
g2
'>SN&2d
,%
m32
j
m32
!$
322
-5=N&2d
RV
-M
ej
TH89&2d
.Q
3j2
E69&2d
#,
+W
oj
^2
""
;4)*&)(".+$124+3*').B))1*0&)-+.*"10$12%63.+$1
#5?&C57<
122
E6?N&2d
+W
RV
I5CN&2a
'>SN&2a
$C<N&2a
-5=N&2a
*HFN&2a
TH89&2a
E69&2a
TH75&2a
-M
!$
33e
331
332
32d
32^
32e
321
322
ad
a^
ae
T)B*($"1*"9&))6)1.2
.7&RV(
T67N&2d
#,
,%
#5?&C57<
1j2
+467F5:&;7&<45&S>8HG57&>J
C>7:HG=<;>7&n122a&/b>b/D&rp
.Q
,h
*=?N&2a
E6?N&2a
T67N&2a
(5BN&2a
#5?&C57<
I5CN&2d
33e
331
332
32d
32^
32e
321
322
ad
a^
ae
V)1-+19*.$*4$%2)4$(-2
RV(
T#/
"V!
+R(
%45&=?>=>?<;>7&>J&RV(&8>67:&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
G726%,W';<>9
>J&G>?<F6F5&8>67:&@;<4&67&6S5?6F5&3gm3e&956?:&<>&G6<H?;<9&
5_;:<;7F& J>?5;F7& CH??57C9& 8>67:& G69& >789& A5C8;75& 6<& S5?9&
:8>@& =6C5N& )J& <45?5& @6:& 7>& G>?5& 75@& 857A;7F& ;7& J>?5;F7&
CH??57C9& ;7& <45& JH<H?5& 6<& 688D& B6:5A& >7& >H?& 5:<;G6<;>7D&
J>?5;F7&CH??57C9&8>67:&@>H8A&A5C8;75&B9&6?>H7A&3g&=5?&C57<&
B9&<45&57A&>J&1233D&67A&<457&<45&A5C8;75&@>H8A&A5C585?6<5&6:&
<45& 5JJ5C<& >J& :4>?<5?b<5?G& <?67:6C<;>7:& J6A5A& >H<& n+46?<&
1b13pN&R>@5S5?D&6&?5AHC<;>7&>J&J>?5;F7&CH??57C9&8>67:&C>H8A&
B5&6C4;5S5A&B9&?5=86C;7F&<45:5&8>67:&@;<4&J>?;7<&8>67:N&(>?&
<4;:D&<45&G>7<489&?5=69G57<&>J&75@&J>?;7<&8>67:&:4>H8A&B5&
8>@5?D&>?&>789&:8;F4<89&B5&4;F45?&6:&<45?5&@>H8A&7>&8>7F5?&B5&
5_C467F5& ?6<5& ?;:XN& %6X;7F& J>?;7<& 8>67:& @;<4& <45& 68?56A9&
G>?5& J6S>H?6B85& ;7<5?5:<& C>7A;<;>7:& 6:& 6& B6:;:D& :4;J<;7F& <>&
J>?;7<:& @>H8A& ?5:H8<& ;7& 6& 12m1j& =5?& C57<& ;7C?56:5& ;7& <45&
G>7<489& ;7:<68G57<D& @4;C4& @>H8A& >BS;>H:89& 7><& G><;S6<5&
4>H:54>8A:& <>& C467F5N& IH5& <>& <45& 8>@5?& ;7<5?5:<& ?6<5&
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
39
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
Chart 2-21
57<5?=?;:5:&57F6F5A&;7&<4;:&:5FG57<N&%45&F>S5?7G57<&A5C?55&
>7&=?HA57<&857A;7F&@;88&68:>&C>7<?;BH<5&<>&6&:8;F4<&A5C8;75&;7&
8>67:& >S5?& <45& :4>?<& ?H7N& E>?5>S5?D& B67X:]& :<?>7F& ?;:X&
6S5?:;>7& G69& 68:>& 8;G;<& 857A;7FN& c;<4;7& <4;:D& 4>@5S5?D&
56:;7F& ;:& 5_=5C<5A& ;7& J>?;7<bA57>G;76<5A& G>?<F6F5& 8>67:D&
@45?5&;7<5?5:<&?6<5:&G69&C>7<;7H5&<>&A5C8;75N
Simulation of the change in households’ foreign
currency loans and the interest rate premium of
new forint mortgage loans compared to
outstanding CHF loans
K+6%(".+$1*$1*.4)*04"19)*+1*4$%2)4$(-2H*!Z*($"12
oD222
.7&RV(
.7&RV(
oD222
1D222
3D222
3D222
2
2
33&qe
1D222
33&qg
gD222
33&q1
gD222
33&q3
eD222
32&qe
eD222
32&qg
jD222
32&q1
jD222
32&q3
^D222
2a&qe
^D222
%45&?5AHC<;>7&>J&(ibA57>G;76<5A&>H<:<67A;7F&
6G>H7<&@;<4>H<&75@&(i&857A;7F
3e
;4)*+1.)&)2.*&".)*3&)6+"*$5*1)B*5$&+1.*6$&.9"9)
($"12*0$63"&)-*.$*GN!*($"12*$%.2."1-+19
#5?&C57<
31
32
gNja
d
gNed
^
e
1
2
R>H:;7F&8>67:
R>G5&5`H;<9&8>67:
%45&:=?56A&>7&*#!+&>J&75@&RV(&G>?<F6F5&8>67:&C>G=6?5A&
<>&<46<&>J&+R(&>75:
%45&C467F5&;7&<45&;7<5?5:<&?6<5:&n-5=N&122dmI5CN&122ap
*S5?6F5&*#!+&>J&75@&+R(&G>?<F6F5&8>67:
G726%,W';<>9
=?5G;HGD&B67X:&6?5&68:>&46?A89&;7<5?5:<5A&n<45&=?5G;HG&;:&
jm^&=5?&C57<&>7&J>?5;F7&CH??57C9&8>67:D&@4;85&;<&;:&<9=;C6889&
gNjmeNj& =5?& C57<& >7& 75@& J>?;7<bA57>G;76<5A& 8>67:& @;<4&
J6S>H?6B85& ;7<5?5:<& ?6<5& C>7A;<;>7:p& n+46?<& 1b13pN& $789& 6&
JH?<45?& A5C8;75& ;7& <45& ;7<5?5:<& ?6<5& :=?56A& C67& ?5:H8<& ;7&
:HB:<67<;68&=?>F?5::&;7&<4;:&?5F6?AN&
2.1.4 STRENGTHENING THE PRUDENT
LENDING AND DEVELOPING THE FORINT
MORTGAGE BOND MARKET ARE KEY
OBJECTIVES
;4)*$'S)0.+#)*$5*.4)*G)1.&"(*I"17H2*3&$3$2"(*&)()"2)-*
$1* Y* L0.$')&* PQQR* +2* .$* 3&)#)1.* 0&)-+.* 0$1-+.+$12*
5&$6* ')0$6+19* .$$* ($$2)* "9"+1:& )7& 122eb122d&
4>H:54>8A:]&;7A5B<5A75::&F?5@&J6:<5?&<467&@46<&@>H8A&46S5&
B557&OH:<;J;5A&B9&<45&C>7S5?F57C5&=6<4N3^&%45&6CC585?6<;>7&;7&
;7A5B<5A75::&@6:&JH5885A&B9&J>?5;F7&CH??57C9&8>67:D&G6X;7F&
4>H:54>8A:&@;<4&7>&76<H?68&45AF5&?;:X;5?&67A&<4H:&;7C?56:;7F&
<45& =?>B6B;8;<9& >J& A5J6H8<N& %45& 6J>?5G57<;>75A& ?;:X:&
:<5GG;7F& J?>G& J>?5;F7& CH??57C9& 857A;7F& G6<5?;68;:5A& 6:& 6&
?5:H8<&>J&<45&J;767C;68&C?;:;:N&)7&>?A5?&<>&=?5S57<&<45:5&?;:X:&
J?>G& ;7C?56:;7F& 6J<5?& <45& H=<H?7& ;7& 857A;7F& <>& 4>H:54>8A:&
J>88>@;7F& <45& ?5C>S5?9& >J& 5C>7>G;C& 6C<;S;<9D& <45& +57<?68&
.67X&;7;<;6<5A&J;767C;68&?5FH86<;>7N&%45&F>S5?7G57<&A5C?55&
C6G5&;7<>&J>?C5&>7&3&E6?C4&1232&;G=85G57<;7F&8;G;<6<;>7:&
>7&<45&8>67b<>bS68H5&?6<;>&n,%hp&67A&<45&G6<H?;<9&>J&S54;C85&
8>67:N&*CC>?A;7F&<>&<45&A5C?55&:<6?<;7F&J?>G&33&TH75&1232&
B67X:& 46S5& <>& 5:<6B8;:4& <45& :>& C6885A& y+?5A;<@>?<4;75::&
8;G;<6<;>7:z& 6==89;7F& A;JJ5?57<& C>7A;<;>7:& J>?& J>?;7<& 67A&
J>?5;F7&CH??57C9&8>67:&n%6B85&1b1pN&
;4)*-)#)($36)1.*$5*.4)*($19E.)&6*5$&+1.*2"#+192*6"&7).*
+2* $5* 7)/* +63$&."10):& *<& <45& G>G57<D& >75& >J& <45& G>:<&
;G=>?<67<& :>H?C5:& >J& SH875?6B;8;<9& J>?& <45& RH7F6?;67&
5C>7>G9& ;:& <45& 86CX& >J& 8>7Fb<5?G& J>?;7<& :6S;7F:N& %4;:& 46:&
?5:H8<5A&;7&67&;7C?56:;7F&?58;67C5&>7&J>?5;F7&C6=;<68&G6?X5<:N&
'>& JH?<45?& ;7C?56:5& C67& B5& 5_=5C<5A& ;7& 8>7Fb<5?G& J>?;7<&
:6S;7F:&@;<4>H<&6==?>=?;6<5&A5S58>=G57<&>J&<45&8>C68&C6=;<68&
G6?X5<:N& %>& 57467C5& <4;:D& <45& +57<?68& .67X& 677>H7C5A& 6&
JH?<45?& =?>F?6GG5& <>& A5S58>=& <45& G>?<F6F5& B>7A& G6?X5<&
n+46?<&1b11pN&*:&<45&J;?:<&:<5=&>J&<4;:&=?>F?6GG5&<45&E'.&;7&
1232& ;:& BH9;7F& 6& G6_;GHG& 6G>H7<& >J& RV(& 322& B;88;>7& >J&
G>?<F6F5&B>7A:&;7&<45&=?;G6?9&67A&:5C>7A6?9&G6?X5<:N&%45&
E'.& =H?C46:5:& 6& G6_;GHG& 12& =5?& C57<& >J& <45& <><68& ;::H5&
n7><& @;<4;7& 6& B67X;7F& F?>H=p& >J& 6& :5?;5:& >?& 67& ;::H5N& %45&
=H?C46:5&;:&:HBO5C<&<>&:<?;C<D&G6?X5<&<?67:=6?57C9&C>7A;<;>7:N&
N$%2)4$(-* ($"12* "&)* )?3)0.)-* .$* -)0(+1)* +1* PQWQ* "2*
B)((:**:&6&?5:H8<&>J&<45&86?F5?b<467b5_=5C<5A&J688&;7&8>67:&@5&
46S5&?5S;:5A&>H?&J>?5C6:<N&%45&86B>H?&G6?X5<&J>88>@:&QI#&
F?>@<4&@;<4&6&A5869D&67A&@5&5_=5C<&;<&<>&;G=?>S5&>789&J?>G&
1233& >7N& +>7:5`H57<89D& 4>H:54>8A& C>7:HG=<;>7& 67A&
A5G67A&J>?&8>67:&@;88&68:>&>789&5_=67A&:8>@89N&)7&=6?<;CH86?D&
<4;:&@;88&46S5&6&75F6<;S5&;G=6C<&>7&S54;C85&J;767C;7FN&%4H:D& M1*.)&62*$5*.4)*5%&.4)&*-)#)($36)1.*$5*5$&+1.*6$&.9"9)*
6& :HB:<67<;68& J688& ;7& 857A;7F& G69& <6X5& =86C5& 6<& J;767C;68& ()1-+19*+.*+2*&)"2$1"'()*.$*0$12+-)&*B+-)1+19*.4)*20$3)*
16
40
This may be indicated by the domestic consumption rate, which is high in international comparison, the noticeably increased loan/GDP ratio and the current
account deficit, which was permanently high in recent years.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
!)-M-&$(&%R"&()'*'+)*,&)'%"!E"I)*!/&-/-%"E
Table 2-2
Main figures in the Central Bank’ proposal and in the decree adopted by the government
Maximum Loan-to-Value ratio in
the case of mortgage loans
Effective from
03. 01. 2010
Maximum Loan-to-Value ratio in
the case of vehicle financing
MNB proposal
Government decree
HUF
70%
75%
Euro
54%
60%
Other currency
35%
45%
HUF
80%
75%
Euro
62%
60%
Other currency
40%
45%
5 years
7 years
Payment-to-income depending
on family income by law
Limits to grant loans
determined on bank level
Maximum maturity of loans and
leasing contracts in the case of
vehicle financing
Effective from
06. 11. 2010
Regulation on debt servicing
burden of customers
<7),W':.,'0$M"020'&7$#E)7EA$&2,'6$)"7'"('['8,6%,#)$4,'87"#)('."4.,6'"#').,'%$(,'7/'&,$("#49
G726%,W';<>9'
17
-5=N&2a
-5=N&2a
E69&2d
-5=N&2o
T67N&2o
E69&2^
-5=N&2j
T67N&2a
E69&2d
-5=N&2o
T67N&2o
E69&2^
-5=N&2j
T67N&2j
T67N&2j
E69&2e
-5=N&2g
T67N&2g
X"7+19* 0&)-+.* 0$1-+.+$12* .&"123"&)1.* +2* "(2$* "1*
+63$&."1.* 3"&.* $5* .4)* 3&$9&"66):& c4;85& ;7& =6:<& 956?:&
RH7F6?;67& B67X:& =?;C5A& <45;?& C>?=>?6<5& 8>67& =?>AHC<:& >7&
<45& B6:;:& >J& 6& ?5J5?57C5& ;7<5?5:<& ?6<5& 67A& 6& =?5G;HGD& <45&
=?;C;7F& >J& G>?<F6F5& 8>67:& @6:& <9=;C6889& 7><& ?H85bB6:5AN3o&
%45?5J>?5D&<45?5&;:&7>&C856?&?586<;>7:4;=&B5<@557&nRH7F6?;67&
67A&J>?5;F7p&C57<?68&B67X&?6<5:&67A&><45?&C>:<&585G57<:&67A&
R>G5&5`H;<9&8>67:&m&(i
<45&;7<5?5:<&?6<5:&=5?C5;S5A&67A&=6;A&B9&C8;57<:N&)7&6AA;<;>7&
R>H:;7F&8>67:&m&(i
R>H:;7F&8>67:&m&RV(
<>&<45&G>?5&H7;J>?G&467A8;7F&>J&=?;C;7F&=?6C<;C5:&67A&<45&
R>G5&5`H;<9&8>67:&m&RV(
E>?<F6F5&B>7A&B6CX5A&8>67:&=?>=>?<;>7&
G6F7;<HA5& >J& <45& =?5G;HGD& <45& =?>=>:68& ;7;<;6<;7F& :58Jb
n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
?5FH86<;>7&C>H8A&68:>&5_<57A&<>&<45&56:;7F&>J&8>67&?5=69G57<&
67A& C467F;7F& >J& B67X:& 6:& @588& 6:& <>& <45& =?>S;:;>7& >J& G726%,W';<>9
6A5`H6<5&;7J>?G6<;>7N&
o2
^2
j2
e2
g2
12
32
2
T67N&2a
jD1j2
eDj22
gDoj2
gD222
1D1j2
3Dj22
oj2
2
E69&2e
-5=N&2g
T67N&2g
$5*+12.+.%.+$12*"%.4$&+[)-*.$*+22%)*6$&.9"9)*'$1-2:&%45& Chart 2-22
J>?;7<&G>?<F6F5&B>7A&G6?X5<&C>H8A&B5&A55=575A&B9&5_<57A;7F& Mortgage bonds issued and outstanding mortgage
<45&?;F4<&>J&G>?<F6F5&B>7A&;::H67C5&<>&688&C?5A;<&;7:<;<H<;>7:N& loans at the end-December 2009 exchange rate
%45?5& 6?5& B6:;C6889& <@>& X;7A:& >J& ;7<5?76<;>768& ?5FH86<>?9&
.7&RV( 1D1j2
=6<<5?7:k& <45& :=5C;68;:5A& B67X& G>A58D& ;7& @4;C4& >789& C?5A;<& 1D1j2 .7&RV(
1D222
1D222
;7:<;<H<;>7:&:=5C;68;:;7F&;7&<4;:&J;58A&6?5&688>@5A&<>&;::H5&<45:5& 3Doj2
3Doj2
3Dj22
:5CH?;<;5:D&67A&<45&H7;S5?:68&G>A58D&@4;C4&688>@:&B>7A&;::H;7F& 3Dj22
3D1j2
3D1j2
<>& 688& C>GG5?C;68& B67X:& <46<& G55<& C5?<6;7& :<?;C<& C?;<5?;6N& 3D222
3D222
oj2
oj2
)7:<;<H<;>7:& J>?& @4;C4& m& AH5& <>& <45& C>:<:& m& 75;<45?& <45&
j22
j22
5:<6B8;:4G57<& >J& <45;?& >@7& G>?<F6F5& ;7:<;<H<;>7D& 7>?&
1j2
1j2
2
2
?5J;767C;7F& @;<4& <45& ;7S>8S5G57<& >J& 67><45?& G>?<F6F5&
;7:<;<H<;>7& 46:& B557& C>G=5<;<;S5& S;:bxbS;:& ><45?& 8;6B;8;<;5:&
C>H8A& 68:>& J;767C5& 6& =6?<& >J& <45;?& =>?<J>8;>& @;<4& G>?<F6F5&
(i&G>?<F6F5&B>7A:&;::H5A&6B?>6A
B>7A:N&%4;:&G>A;J;C6<;>7&C>H8A&;7C?56:5&;7:<;<H<;>768&;7S5:<>?:]&
(i&G>?<F6F5&B>7A:&;::H5A&;7&RH7F6?9
RV(&G>?<F6F5&B>7A:&;::H5A&6B?>6A
A5G67A& 6:& @588D& :;7C5& @;<4& G>?5& ;::H5?:& <45& ;7A;S;AH68&
RV(&G>?<F6F5&B>7A:&;::H5A&;7&RH7F6?9
;7:<;<H<;>768& ;7S5:<G57<& C>7:<?6;7<:& @>H8A& 8>>:57D& 67A& ;<&
#5?&C57< d2
.7&RV(
@>H8A&B5&56:;5?&<>&A;S5?:;J9&<45&G>?<F6F5&B>7A&=>?<J>8;>N&
^D222
It must be noted, however, that the number of household products where the interest rate is linked to some kind of reference rates is increasing, although the
practice of pricing remains diversified.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
41
2.2 Liquidity of the money market and the
banking system is improving, the strong reliance
on external funding is only declining slowly
:.,' 6$8"3' 3,),6"76$)"7#' "#' &"O2"3")+' 7/' ).,' 0$@76' 370,()"%'
/"#$#%"$&' 0$65,)(' $)' ).,' ,#3' 7/' JKKk' $#3' ,$6&+' JKKL' -$('
/7&&7-,3'*+'$'46$32$&'$3@2()0,#)'/670').,'(86"#4'7/'JKKL9'C('
$' 6,(2&)' 7/' ."4.,6' 6"(5' $88,)"),' 7#' "#),6#$)"7#$&' /"#$#%"$&'
0$65,)(1' ).,' *$&$#%,' (.,,)' $3@2()0,#)(' 7/' 370,()"%' *$#5('
$#3').,'-"3,#"#4'7/'%72#),68$6)+'&"0")(1'&"O2"3")+'7/').,'!b'
(-$8'0$65,)'O2"%5&+'#760$&"(,39'>+'%7#)6$()1').,'$3@2()0,#)'
-$(' (&7-,6' 7#' ).,' (87)' !b' $#3' 47A,6#0,#)' *7#3' 0$65,)(1'
-."&,' ).,' &"O2"3")+' 7/' ).,' 2#(,%26,3' 7A,6#"4.)' "#),6*$#5'
0$65,)'-$('6,()76,3'7#&+')7'$'&"0"),3'3,46,,9
:.,' &7$#E)7E3,87(")' 6$)"7' "#' ).,' F2#4$6"$#' *$#5"#4' (,%)76'
"#%6,$(,3'/670'^[['8,6%,#)'$)').,',#3'7/'JKKl')7'^\K'8,6%,#)'
*+').,',#3'7/'JKKk'$#3'3,%6,$(,3')7'^mV'8,6%,#)'*+').,',#3'7/'
JKKL9':.,'*$&$#%,'(.,,)'$3@2()0,#)('7/').,'370,()"%'*$#5"#4'
(+(),0' -,6,' 7*(,6A,3' 7#&+' "#' ).,' /"6()' .$&/' 7/' JKKL9' :.,'
37-#)6,#3'"#').,'&7$#E)7E3,87(")'6$)"7'7/'*$#5('(&7-,3'37-#'
("4#"/"%$#)&+'"#').,'(,%7#3'.$&/'7/').,'+,$69'I#'JKKL1').,'6$),'7/'
,M),6#$&' /2#3"#4' *$("%$&&+' 6,0$"#,3' 2#%.$#4,3' %708$6,3' )7'
).,'&,A,&'6,%763,3'"#'G,8),0*,6'JKKk'*,/76,').,'%6"("(1'$('*$#5('
"#%6,$(,3' ).,"6' /"#$#%"#4' 7/' ).,' ()$),' X%,#)6$&' 47A,6#0,#)'
*234,)'$#3'%,#)6$&'*$#5Z')7'$'%7#("3,6$*&,',M),#)9'
<20,672(' /$%)76(' (244,()' $' /26).,6' 3,%6,$(,' "#' ).,'&7$#E)7E
3,87(")'6$)"79':.,'#,)'/"#$#%"#4'%$8$%")+'7/').,'86"A$),'(,%)76'
0$+'6,0$"#'$)'."4.'&,A,&9';76,7A,61').,'3,%&"#,'"#').,'&7$#E
)7E3,87(")' 6$)"7' 6,$&"(,3' (7' /$6' (,,0(' 6$).,6' 073,()' "#'
%708$6"(7#')7',$6&",6'%6"("(',M8,6",#%,(1'-."%.'$&(7'"08&",('$'
(2()$"#,3' $3@2()0,#)' *+' ).,' *$#5"#4' (+(),09' :.,' 6$),' 7/'
3,%&"#,' "#' ).,' &7$#E)7E3,87(")' 6$)"71' .7-,A,61' "(' (26672#3,3'
*+' $' ."4.' 3,46,,' 7/' 2#%,6)$"#)+1' 8$6)"%2&$6&+' 7-"#4' )7' ).,'
%.$#4,3'()62%)26,'7/'.72(,.7&3'($A"#4(9'
2.2.1 CONTINUOUSLY IMPROVING
LIQUIDITY ON THE FINANCIAL MARKETS
M1* .4)* 3"2.* /)"&8* .4)* (+,%+-+./* +1-+0)2W\* $5* .4)* 6"S$&*
-$6)2.+0* 5+1"10+"(* 6"&7).2* 24$B)-* 9&"-%"(*
+63&$#)6)1.8* "(.4$%94* 6+1$&* .)12+$12* &)6"+18*
3"&.+0%("&(/* +1* &)(".+$1* .$* ($19)&* 6".%&+.+)2* "1-* .4)*
&)0$#)&/* $5* 0$%1.)&3"&./* (+6+.2:&%45&?6=;A&A5<5?;>?6<;>7&
;7& 8;`H;A;<9& >7& <45& G6O>?& A>G5:<;C& J;767C;68& G6?X5<:& 6<& <45&
57A& >J& 122d& 67A& 56?89& 122a& @6:& J>88>@5A& B9& 6& :8>@&
6AOH:<G57<& ;7& =6?68858& @;<4& <45& 4;F45?& ?;:X& 6==5<;<5& >7&
;7<5?76<;>768& J;767C;68& G6?X5<:& J?>G& <45& :=?;7F& >J& 86:<& 956?&
n+46?<&1b1gpN&#?5::H?5&J?>G&7>7b?5:;A57<&:5885?:&46:&56:5A&>7&
<45& F>S5?7G57<& :5CH?;<;5:& G6?X5<& :;7C5& E69& 122aN& %45&
%bB>7A&9;58A&:=?56A&6B>S5&<45&;7<5?5:<&:@6=&9;58A&J588&B58>@&
12&B6:;:&=>;7<:&J>?&>75b&67A&<4?55b956?&G6<H?;<;5:D&<>&6&85S58&
?5C>?A5A& =?;>?& <>& <45& C?;:;:D& @4;85& <45& CH??57<& e2bd2& B6:;:&
=>;7<&85S58&J>?&8>7F5?&G6<H?;<;5:&C>7<;7H5:&<>&:HFF5:<&<57:;>7:&
n+46?<& 1b1epN& %45& B?56X& ;7& <45& :588;7F& <?57A& >J& J>?;7<&
;7:<?HG57<:&:<6B;8;:5A&<45&J>?;7<&A5G67A&>J&7>7b?5:;A57<:&>7&
<45& (i& :@6=& G6?X5<& 67A& 68:>& ?5AHC5A& J8HC<H6<;>7:& ;7& <45&
RV(&5_C467F5&?6<5N&%45&B6867C5&:455<&6AOH:<G57<:&>J&B67X:&
n?5AHC<;>7& >J& (i& 6::5<:D& ;7C?56:5& >J& (i& 8;6B;8;<;5:p& ?5AHC5A&
<45;?&(i&8;`H;A;<9&?;:X:D&<4H:&<45&J>?5;F7&CH??57C9&A5G67A&>J&
?5:;A57<:&>7&<45&:@6=&G6?X5<&A5C8;75AN&%45&C>7:>8;A6<;>7&>J&
<45& (i& :@6=& G6?X5<& :;F7;J;C67<89& =?>G><5A& :<6B;8;:6<;>7& >J&
<45&RV(&5_C467F5&?6<5D&6:&RV(&9;58A:&A5?;S5A&n;G=8;5Ap&J?>G&
:@6=:&?5<H?75A&C8>:5&<>&RV(&;7<5?B67X&;7<5?5:<&?6<5:&@;<4&<45&
6==?>=?;6<5& G6<H?;<;5:N& %45& C>H7<5?=6?<9& 8;G;<:& >J& B67X:&
5_=67A5A& 6F6;7D& =?>AHC;7F& 6& =>:;<;S5& 5JJ5C<& =6?<;CH86?89& >7&
<45&(i&:@6=&67A&;7<5?B67X&G6?X5<N&*CC>?A;7F&<>&67&67689:;:&
>J&;7<5?B67X&?586<;>7:3aD&@;<4&<45&;7<57:;J9;7F&<57:;>7:&>7&<45&
A>886?&:@6=&G6?X5<&m& @4;C4& @6:&<45&A>G;767<&:HB:5C<>?&>J&
<45& (i& G6?X5<& m& <45& 5H?>& :@6=& G6?X5<D& @4;C4& F575?6889&
5_4;B;<5A&GHC4&8>@5?&<H?7>S5?D&@6:&=6?<89&6B85&<>&6::HG5&<45&
?>85&>J&<45&A>886?&:@6=&G6?X5<N&*8>7F&@;<4&56:;7F&>J&<57:;>7:D&
6& ?56??67F5G57<& >J& <45& 56?8;5?& C467F5:& :<6?<5A& ;7& <45&
B5F;77;7F& >J& 122aD& 67A& @6:& J>88>@5A& B9& 67& 6CC585?6<;>7& >J&
<4;:&<?57A&;7&<45&:5C>7A&468J&>J&<45&956?N&%45&7HGB5?&>J&6C<;S5&
B67X:&67A&<?6A;7F&=6?<75?:&A5C?56:5A&>7&<45&RV(&;7<5?B67X&
G>759& G6?X5<& AH?;7F& <45& C?;:;:& 67A& <45& C>??5C<;>7& ;7& 122a&
@6:& >789& =6?<;68N& %45& 7HGB5?& >J& ;7<5?B67X& ?586<;>7:& ;:& 8>@&
C>G=6?5A&<>&<45&7HGB5?&>J&6C<;S5&B67X:N&%45&;G=?>S5G57<&
Indicators were normalised on the basis of their long-term averages and distribution. For the details of the liquidity indices calculated by the MNB, see Judit
Páles–Lóránt Varga: Trends in the liquidity of Hungarian financial markets – What does the MNB’s new aggregate market liquidity index show? MNB Bulletin, April
2008. Since publication of the article, with regard to the government bond and interbank unsecured market, we modified the methodology of the bid-ask spread
due to conversion to more reliable data sources. According to the new methodology, we estimate the spread from the distribution of prices and interest rates
from the average on the given day. In relation to the FX swap market, we examine the full overnight segment in place of the 1-day tomnext USD/HUF market.
19
An MNB study analysing the interbank relations and the changes of counterparty limits with measures which are used to exemine the behaviour of the interbank
networks, will be published soon.
18
42
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
!)-M-&$(&%R"&()'*'+)*,&)'%"!E"I)*!/&-/-%"E
Chart 2-23
Consolidation of the major domestic financial markets
G$&,('7/'FD!'3,#70"7#$),3'$((,)('
*+'#7#E6,("3,#)('"('()788"#41').,'3,0$#3'
7#'FD!'$((,)('"('()$*"&"("#4
-H==89&>J&(i&;:&;G=?>S;7F&
>7&(ib:@6=&G6?X5<
I5G67A&>7&RV(&
;:&:<6B;8;:;7F
-685:&>J&
F>S5?7G57<&
:5CH?;<;5:&B9&
7>7b?5:;A57<:&
6?5&:<>==;7F
:26*2&,#%,'7/').,'
47A,6#0,#)'(,%26")",('
0$65,)'"('3,%6,$("#4
>$&$#%,'(.,,)'$3@2()0,#)'X&7$#E)7E3,87(")'
6$)"7'"('3,%6,$("#4Z1').,'-,"4.)'7/').,'
8$6,#)'*$#5n('/"#$#%"#4'"('"#%6,$("#4
"V!lRV(&5_C467F5&?6<5
;:&:<6B;8;:;7F
%45&=?;C5&
;7A;C5:&>J&
<45&:=><&G6?X5<
&6?5&;G=?>S;7F
,5::&
6AA;<;>768&
C>886<5?68
&;:&?5`H;?5A&
:26*2&,#%,'7/').,'
RDHaFD!'(87)'0$65,)
'"('3,%6,$("#4
T$6)#,6'&"0")('$07#4'
*$#5('$6,'-"3,#"#4
I5G67A&>7&(i&;:
A5C?56:;7F&>7&(ib:@6=&
G6?X5<D&?>88>S5?&?;:X&
;:&A5C?56:;7FD&G6<H?;<9&
>J&<?67:6C<;>7:&
;:&;7C?56:;7F
#?;C5&>J&
RV(&
J;767C;7F&
;:&7>?G6b
8;:;7F
%H?7>S5?&>7&<45&
;7<5?B67X&G6?X5<&
;:&;7C?56:;7FD&
?>88>S5?&?;:X&
;:&A5C?56:;7F
,;G;<:&6?5&@;A57;7F&>7&
<45&:@6=&G6?X5<
:26*2&,#%,'7/').,'!bE(-$8
'0$65,)'"('3,%6,$("#4
I5G67A&>7&
RV(&8;`H;A;<9&;:
A5C?56:;7F&>7&
<45&(ib:@6=&
G6?X5<
:26*2&,#%,'7/').,
'"#),6*$#5'FD!'0$65,)'
"('3,%6,$("#4
Chart 2-24
T67N&2d
(5BN&2d
E6?N&2d
*=?N&2d
E69&2d
TH75&2d
TH89&2d
*HFN&2d
-5=N&2d
$C<N&2d
'>SN&2d
I5CN&2d
T67N&2a
(5BN&2a
E6?N&2a
*=?N&2a
E69&2a
TH75&2a
TH89&2a
*HFN&2a
-5=N&2a
$C<N&2a
'>SN&2a
I5CN&2a
T67N&32
(5BN&32
>J& '>S5GB5?& 122aD& <4;:& G6?X5<& @6:& C46?6C<5?;:5A& B9& 8>@&
<H?7>S5?D&;7&C>G=6?;:>7&<>&<45&J;FH?5:&?5C>?A5A&B5J>?5&<45&
The aggregated liquidity index and its sub-indices
C?;:;:D&6:&@588&6:&;7<5?5:<&?6<5:&6==?>6C4;7F&<45&B><<>G&>J&<45&
3N2
1
;7<5?5:<& ?6<5& C>??;A>?N& )7& <4;:& =5?;>AD& >@;7F& <>& 8>@&
2Nj
3
C>H7<5?=6?<9& 8;G;<:& 67A& 5_<?5G589& C6H<;>H:& 8;`H;A;<9&
2N2
2
m2Nj
m3
G676F5G57<D& =6?<;C;=67<:& C>7<;7H>H:89& ?>885A& >S5?7;F4<&
m3N2
m1
A5=>:;<:& >7& <45& >?A5?& >J& RV(& g22bj22& B;88;>7N& %4;:& @6:&
m3Nj
mg
m1N2
me
576B85A& B9& <45& 4;F4& 85S58& >J& :9:<5G6<;C& ;7<5?B67X& J>?;7<&
m1Nj
mj
8;`H;A;<9&67A&6&76??>@&;7<5?5:<&?6<5&C>??;A>?N&(>88>@;7F&<45&
mgN2
m^
@;A57;7F& >J& <45& ;7<5?5:<& ?6<5& C>??;A>?& 6<& <45& 57A& >J& 122aD&
mgNj
mo
meN2
md
B67X:& F?6AH6889& G>S5A& 6@69& J?>G& C57<?68& B67X& A5=>:;<:&
6F6;7&;7&<45&A;?5C<;>7&>J&<45&H7:5CH?5A&>S5?7;F4<&;7<5?B67X&
G6?X5<N&$S5?7;F4<&;7<5?5:<&?6<5:&5G5?F5A&J?>G&<45&B><<>G&
RV(l"V!&:=><&(i&G6?X5<
>J& <45& ;7<5?5:<& ?6<5& C>??;A>?& 6:& 6& ?5:H8<& >J& G>?5& ;7<57:;S5&
$S5?7;F4<&H7:5CH?5A&
;7<5?B67X&G>759&G6?X5<
$%+&RV(&F>S5?7G57<&
8;`H;A;<9& G676F5G57<D& 856A;7F& <>& F?>@;7F& S>86<;8;<9& ;7&
B>7A&G6?X5<
*FF?5F6<5A&;7A5_
;7<?6A69&67A&;7<5?bA69&;7<5?5:<&?6<5:N&%4;:&85A&<>&A5<5?;>?6<;>7&
3bA69&RV(&(ib:@6=&G6?X5<&
n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
;7&<45&=?;C5&;7A;C5:&>J&8;`H;A;<9&@4;C4&C>H8A&7><&B5&>JJ:5<&B9&
<45&F?>@;7FD&BH<&8>@5?:&<467&=?5bC?;:;:&<H?7>S5?N&%4H:D&>7&
G726%,W'H,2),6(1';<>9'
<45& @4>85D& <45& 6FF?5F6<5A& ;7<5?B67X& 8;`H;A;<9& ;7A5_&
;7&>H?&8;`H;A;<9&;7A;C5:&;:&<45&86?F5:<&;7&?586<;>7&<>&<45&3bA69& C>7<;7H5:&<>&J688&:4>?<&>J&<45&8>7Fb<5?G&85S58N&
(i&:@6=&G6?X5<D&@4;C4&:4>@5A&<45&4;F45:<&A5S;6<;>7&;7&<45&
<H?BH857<& =5?;>AN& (?>G& *=?;8& 122aD& <45& ;7A;S;AH68& :5FG57<& ;4)* WE-"/* NJ!* !Z* 2B"3* 6"&7).* 0%&&)1.(/* -$)2* 1$.*
;7A;C6<>?:&>789&G>A5?6<589&S6?9&J?>G&<45;?&6S5?6F5&=?5bC?;:;:& &)#)"(* (+,%+-+./* .)12+$12:& %45& 8;`H;A;<9& >J& <45& A>G5:<;C&
J;FH?5:N&-8>@5?&6AOH:<G57<&@6:&>B:5?S5A&>7&<45&:=><&(i&67A& (i& :@6=& G6?X5<& ;G=?>S5A& :HB:<67<;6889& ;7& <45& :5C>7A&
F>S5?7G57<& B>7A& G6?X5<:D& @4;85& <45& 8;`H;A;<9& >J& <45& `H6?<5?&>J&122af&6:&8;G;<:&?5:<?;C<;7F&<?67:6C<;>7:&B5<@557&
H7:5CH?5A& >l7& ;7<5?B67X& G6?X5<& @6:& ?5:<>?5A& >789& <>& 6& C?5A;<& ;7:<;<H<;>7:& @5?5& F?6AH6889& ?586_5AN& *:& 6& ?5:H8<D& <45&
B67X:& @5?5& 6F6;7& 6B85& <>& C>7C8HA5& G>?5& <?67:6C<;>7:& @;<4&
8;G;<5A&A5F?55N
56C4& ><45?f& <45& =?;C5& >J& (i& BH9;7F& >7& <45& 3bA69& :@6=&
!$(($B+19*.4)*B+-)1+19*$5*.4)*+1.)&)2.*&".)*0$&&+-$&*".* G6?X5<& J588D& 67A& H:5& >J& <45& <@>b@69& n=?>S;A;7F& 5H?>& 67A&
.4)*)1-*$5*PQQR8*.%&1$#)&*$1*.4)*$#)&1+94.*%12)0%&)-* J>?;7<& 8;`H;A;<9p& >S5?7;F4<& C57<?68& B67X& (i& :@6=& `H;CX&
+1.)&'"17* 6"&7).* &$2)* "2* "* &)2%(.* $5* 6$&)* +1.)12+#)* <57A5?D& @4;C4& @6:& ;7<?>AHC5A& ;7& $C<>B5?& 122dD& B5C6G5&
(+,%+-+./*6"1"9)6)1.*$5*'"172:&(?>G&E6?C4&<>&<45&57A& 5_<?5G589&8>@N&%4;:&;7:<?HG57<&@6:&@;<4A?6@7&B9&<45&E'.&
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
43
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
Chart 2-25
Difference between implied HUF yields of one-day,
three- and six-month and one-year HUF FX swap
transactions vis-à-vis major currencies (EUR, USD,
CHF) and the HUF reference interest rates with
appropriate maturities
X,M87#,#)"$&'07A"#4'$A,6$4,Z
3
#5?C57<6F5&=>;7<
#5?C57<6F5&=>;7<
3
2
m3
m3
m1
m1
mg
mg
me
me
mj
mj
m^
m^
mo
mo
T67N&2d
(5BN&2d
E6?N&2d
*=?N&2d
E69&2d
TH75&2d
TH89&2d
*HFN&2d
-5=N&2d
$C<&2d
'>SN&2d
I5CN&2d
T67N&2a
(5BN&2a
E6?N&2a
*=?N&2a
E69&2a
TH75&2a
TH89&2a
*HFN&2a
-5=N&2a
$C<&2a
'>SN&2a
I5CN&2a
T67N&32
(5BN&32
2
3bA69
gbG>7<4
^bG>7<4
3b956?
<7),(W' :.,' #,4$)"A,' A$&2,(' 0$+' (244,()' &"O2"3")+' ),#("7#(' 7#' ).,' !b'
0$65,)1'$(').,+'"#3"%$),').$)').,'"08&",3'FD!'+",&3('-,6,'&7-,6').$#').,'
$886786"$),'6,/,6,#%,'"#),6,()'6$),(9'I#'6,&$)"7#')7').,')6$#($%)"7#('-").'
$'0$)26")+'7/'^'3$+1'-,'2(,3').,'7A,6#"4.)'2#(,%26,3'"#),6*$#5'07#,+'
0$65,)'6$),('$(').,'6,/,6,#%,'6$),9'I#'6,&$)"7#')7').,'7).,6')6$#($%)"7#(1'
-,'2(,3').,'87"#)('7/'$'/")),3'(87)'+",&3'%26A,'*$(,3'7#'!H C'$#3'"#),6,()'
6$),' (-$8' O27)$)"7#(9' :.,' %.$6)' 7#&+' "#3"%$),(' ).,' )6$#($%)"7#(' 7/'
F2#4$6"$#'%6,3")'"#()")2)"7#('%7#%&23,3'-").'370,()"%'$#3'#7#E6,("3,#)'
%6,3")'"#()")2)"7#(9
G726%,W'H,2),6(1';<>9
;7& E69& 122aD& 6:& ;7<5?G5A;6<;>7& @6:& 7>& 8>7F5?& 75C5::6?9N&
%45& 3bA69& :@6=& :5FG57<& 68:>& C>7<;7H5A& <>& ;G=?>S5& 6J<5?&
<4;:&A6<5N&%45&A;JJ5?57C5&B5<@557&<45&RV(&9;58A&>J&<45&:@6=&
G6?X5<& 67A& <45& H7:5CH?5A& >S5?7;F4<& ;7<5?B67X& J>?;7<&
;7<5?5:<&?6<5&46:&B6:;C6889&A;:6==56?5A&:;7C5&56?89&I5C5GB5?&
122aD& 67A& C>7A;<;>7:& =?5C5A;7F& <45& 6H<HG7& >J& 122d& 46S5&
B557&?5:<>?5A&n+46?<&1b1jpN&
A&+0)2* $1* .4)* NJ!* !Z* 2B"3* 6"&7).* B+.4* ($19)&*
6".%&+.+)2* 0$1.+1%)* .$* 2%99)2.* ($B)&* (+,%+-+./*
.)12+$12:*%45&RV(&9;58A&=?5G;6&>J&<45&:@6=&G6?X5<:&@;<4&
8>7F5?& G6<H?;<;5:& n>S5?& >75& G>7<4p& B5F67& ?;:;7F& ?6=;A89&
<>@6?A:&<45&G;AA85b&67A&57A&>J&E6?C4&122aD&?56C4;7F&<45;?&
G6_;GHG&S68H5:&;7&TH75N&%4;:&@6:&J>88>@5A&B9&6&G>A5?6<5&
A5C8;75&;7&:=?56A:&;7&<45&:5C>7A&468J&>J&<45&956?N&(?>G&56?89&
I5C5GB5?&122aD&:;G;86?89&<>&<45&3bA69&:5FG57<D&6&?5=56<5A&
?;:5& ;7& <45& RV(& 9;58A& =?5G;HG& @6:& >B:5?S5A& ;7& <4;:&
:5FG57<N& *:& 6& ?5:H8<D& <45& =?5G;HG& ?586<;7F& <>& <45& <4?55b
G>7<4D& :;_bG>7<4& 67A& >75b956?& G6<H?;<;5:& ;7C?56:5A& 67A&
?56C45A&67&6==?>_;G6<5&S68H5&>J&G;7H:&j2&B6:;:&=>;7<:D&67A&
20
44
?5G6;75A&6<&<46<&85S58&;7&G;Ab(5B?H6?9&1232&n+46?<&1b1jpN&
%45&=?5G;HG&>J&:@6=:&:<;88&7><&?56C4;7F&[5?>&:HFF5:<:&<46<&
8;`H;A;<9& 46:& 7><& 95<& <>& B5& JH889& ?5:<>?5A& >7& <45& (i& :@6=&
G6?X5<& @;<4& 8>7F5?& G6<H?;<;5:D& 67A& <45& (i& A5G67A& >J&
A>G5:<;C&B67X:&C>7<;7H5:&<>&G>A5?6<589&5_C55A&<45&J>?5;F7&
CH??57C9&:H==89lJ>?;7<&A5G67A&>J&7>7b?5:;A57<:N&%45&=?;C5&
>J&(i&:@6=:&@;<4&:5S5?68&956?:&G6<H?;<9&nB6:;:&:@6=:12p&68:>&
?5J85C<&<45&G>A5?6<5&8;`H;A;<9&<57:;>7&C46?6C<5?;:;7F&<45&(i&
:@6=&G6?X5<&@;<4&8>7F5?&G6<H?;<9N&%45&RV(&9;58A:&>J&<45:5&
<?67:6C<;>7:& 6?5& e2b^2& B6:;:& =>;7<:& 8>@5?& <467& B5J>?5& <45&
C?;:;:N&)7&(i&:@6=&<?67:6C<;>7:&@;<4&:5S5?68&956?:&G6<H?;<9D&
?5:;A57<&=6?<;C;=67<:&6?5&8;X589&<>&B5&(i&BH95?:&67A&:4>@&6&
=?5J5?57C5&J>?&<?67:6C<;>7:&@;<4&8>7F5?&G6<H?;<;5:N
2.2.2 THE INITIALLY INTENSIVE
BALANCE SHEET ADJUSTMENT OF THE
BANKING SECTOR IS SLOWING DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY
;4)* 1).* 5+1"10+19* 0"3"0+./* $5* .4)* 3&+#".)* 2)0.$&* +2* "*
2+91+5+0"1.* 5"0.$&* +1* .4)* -)#)($36)1.* $5* .4)* ($"1E.$E
-)3$2+.* &".+$:* %45& 75<& J;767C;7F& C6=6C;<9& >J& <45& =?;S6<5&
:5C<>?&G69&46S5&6&:HB:<67<;68&;G=6C<&>7&<45&B6867C5&:455<&>J&
<45& B67X;7F& :9:<5G& n+46?<& 1b1^pN& )J& <45& 75<& J;767C;7F&
C6=6C;<9&>J&<45&=?;S6<5&:5C<>?&;:&=>:;<;S5D&;<&;:&8;X589&<46<&<45&
75<& =>?<J>8;>& =>:;<;>7& >J& <45& :5C<>?& S;:bxbS;:& <45& B67X;7F&
:9:<5G& ;G=?>S5:D& ;N5N& <45& 8>67b<>bA5=>:;<& ?6<;>& A5C?56:5:N&
%4;:& C>??586<;>7D& 4>@5S5?D& G69& B5& G>A;J;5A& B9& :5S5?68&
J6C<>?:N& )<& ;:& =>::;B85& J>?& C>G=67;5:& n<>& 6& 75F8;F;B85& 5_<57<&
J>?& 4>H:54>8A:p& <>& A;?5C<89& 6CC5::& C?5A;<& 6B?>6A& n6::5<& :;A5&
A;:;7<5?G5A;6<;>7pN& %45& 8>67b<>bA5=>:;<& ?6<;>& G69& <4H:&
?5G6;7& H7C467F5AD& 7><@;<4:<67A;7F& <45& 75F6<;S5& 75<&
J;767C;7F& C6=6C;<9& >J& 7>7bJ;767C;68& C>?=>?6<;>7:N& %45&
:<?HC<H?5& >J& :6S;7F:]& 6CCHGH86<;>7& G69& 68:>& :;F7;J;C67<89&
6JJ5C<&<4;:&?586<;>7:4;=k&A5:=;<5&=>:;<;S5&J;767C;7F&C6=6C;<9D&
<45&8>67b<>bA5=>:;<&?6<;>&G69&5S57&?;:5&;J&<45&:6S;7F:&>J&<45&
=?;S6<5&:5C<>?&6?5&7><&;7&B67X&A5=>:;<:D&BH<&;7&F>S5?7G57<&
:5CH?;<;5:&>?&:46?5:&n8;6B;8;<9&:;A5&A;:;7<5?G5A;6<;>7pN&
;4)* 3&+#".)* 2)0.$&H2* 24+5.* .$* "* 1).* 2"#+192* 3$2+.+$1*
2+91+5+0"1.(/*0$1.&+'%.)-*.$*.4)*-)0&)"2)*+1*.4)*($"1E
.$E-)3$2+.*&".+$:*(?>G&1223&H7<;8&<45&:5C>7A&468J&>J&122^&
;7& RH7F6?9D& <45& J;767C;7F& C6=6C;<9& >J& <45& =?;S6<5& :5C<>?&
J8HC<H6<5A&6<&6?>H7A&[5?>D&BH<&<45&75<&=>?<J>8;>&=>:;<;>7&S;:b
xbS;:&<45&B67X;7F&:5C<>?&:8>@89&@>?:575A&7>75<4585::N&%4;:&
;:&C4;5J89&6<<?;BH<5A&<>&<45&B546S;>H?&>J&4>H:54>8A:D&6:&<459&
B>??>@5A&5_C8H:;S589&J?>G&B67X:&67A&J;767C;68&57<5?=?;:5:D&
@4;85& :5CH?;<;5:& G6A5& H=& 67& ;7C?56:;7F& S>8HG5& >J& :6S;7F:N&
%45& =>:;<;>7& >J& 7>7bJ;767C;68& 57<5?=?;:5:& S;:bxbS;:& <45&
B67X;7F&:9:<5G&A;A&7><&C467F5&C>7:;A5?6B89&;7&<45&G567<;G5N&
Basis swaps are FX swap transactions with maturity of over one year, in which variable interests relating to FX amounts constituting the basis of the swap are
exchanged during the maturity of the transaction (e.g. BUBOR and EURIBOR).
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
!)-M-&$(&%R"&()'*'+)*,&)'%"!E"I)*!/&-/-%"E
Chart 2-26
Net financing capacity of the private sector and its
position vis-à-vis the banking system
1j
;4)*1).*5+1"10+19*3$2+.+$1*$5*.4)*3&+#".)*2)0.$&
C2)"2$1"((/*"-S%2.)-8*"2*"*3)&0)1."9)*$5*@=AF
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
1j
12
12
3j
3j
32
32
j
j
2
2
m32
m32
m3j
m3j
22&q3
22&qg
23&q3
23&qg
21&q3
21&qg
2g&q3
2g&qg
2e&q3
2e&qg
2j&q3
2j&qg
2^&q3
2^&qg
2o&q3
2o&qg
2d&q3
2d&qg
2a&q3
2a&qg
mj
mj
*::5<:
322
,;6B;8;<;5:
Chart 2-27
'5<&J;767C;7F&=>:;<;>7
;4)*1).*5+1"10+19*3$2+.+$1*$5*.4)*3&+#".)*2)0.$&
B+.4*.4)*-$6)2.+0*+1.)&6)-+"&+)2*
C"2*"*3)&0)1."9)*$5*@=AF
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
;4)*-)0(+1)*+1*.4)*($"1E.$E-)3$2+.*&".+$*$5*.4)*-$6)2.+0*
'"17+19* 2/2.)6* 2($B)-* -$B1* +1* .4)* ("..)&* 4"(5* $5*
PQQR:&%45&8>67b<>bA5=>:;<&?6<;>D&G56:H?;7F&<45&<;F4<75::&>J&
<45& B67X;7F& :9:<5G]:& 8;`H;A;<9D& J588& B9& 32b3j& =5?C57<6F5&
=>;7<:&<>&3eg&=5?&C57<&B9&<45&57A&>J&122aD&C>G=6?5A&<>&<45&
85S58&=?;>?&<>&<45&C?;:;:&n+46?<&1b1opN&*&G6O>?&:4;J<&;7&<?57A:D&
4>@5S5?D&@6:&>B:5?S5A&AH?;7F&<45&956?N&%45&A5C8;75&;7&<45&
8>67b<>bA5=>:;<&?6<;>&:8>@5A&A>@7&:;F7;J;C67<89&;7&<45&<4;?A&
`H6?<5?&>J&122aN&*8<4>HF4&<45&A5C8;75&;7&857A;7F&C>7<;7H5A&
;7& <45& :5C>7A& 468J& >J& 122aD& <45& S>8HG5& >J& B67X& A5=>:;<:&
A5C?56:5A&6<&6&G>A5?6<5&?6<5N&)7&<45&:5C>7A&468J&>J&<45&956?D&
<45& C>?=>?6<5& :5C<>?& F?6AH6889& H<;8;:5A& ;<:& A5=>:;<:&
6CCHGH86<5A& ;7& <45& J;?:<& 468J& >J& <45& 956?N& *8<4>HF4& <45&
A5=>:;<& 4>8A;7F:& >J& 4>H:54>8A:& ;7C?56:5AD& <45& F?>@<4& ?6<5&
Change in the loan-to-deposit ratio of banks and
main types of savings
322
g22
V$"1E.$E-)3$2+.*&".+$
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
g22
m12
m12
j2
j2
me2
me2
2
2
I5=>:;<:&>J&=?;S6<5&:5C<>?&B9&A>G5:<;C&;7<5?G5A;6?;5:
,>67:&>J&=?;S6<5&:5C<>?&B9&A>G5:<;C&J;767C;68&
;7<5?G5A;6?;5:
%45&75<&=>:;<;>7&>J&<45&=?;S6<5&:5C<>?&@;<4&A>G5:<;C
;7<5?G5A;6?;5:
<7),W'Y#').,'288,6'%.$6)'#,)'/&7-')+8,'3$)$1'7#').,'&7-,6'%.$6)'()7%5'
)+8,' 3$)$' $6,' "#3"%$),3' "#' 8,6' %,#)' 7/' SNT9' :.,' *$#5(1' *6$#%.,(' $#3'
/"#$#%"$&',#),686"(,('*,&7#4')7').,'/"#$#%"$&'"#),60,3"$6+'(+(),09
G726%,W';<>9
e22
.7&RV(
T)B*#$(%6)*$5*&)()#"1.*2"#+19*
+12.&%6)1.2
TH89&2a
322
I5CN&2d
322
E69&2d
2
$C<N&2o
2
E6?N&2o
3j2
*HFN&2^
3j2
T67N&2^
12
TH75&2j
12
'>SN&2e
122
e2
*=?N&2e
122
e2
-5=N&2g
^2
(5BN&2g
^2
TH89&21
1j2
I5CN&23
1j2
E69&23
d2
22&q3
22&qg
23&q3
23&qg
21&q3
21&qg
2g&q3
2g&qg
2e&q3
2e&qg
2j&q3
2j&qg
2^&q3
2^&qg
2o&q3
2o&qg
2d&q3
2d&qg
2a&q3
2a&qg
d2
.7&RV(
e22
g22
g22
122
122
322
322
2
2
2a&qe
2a&qg
2a&q1
2a&q3
)7& 122oD& <45& A5<5?;>?6<;>7& ;7& <45& 75<& =>:;<;>7& S;:bxbS;:& <45&
B67X;7F& :9:<5G& 6CC585?6<5AD& 67A& <45& 8>67b<>bA5=>:;<& ?6<;>& m322
G6?X5A&B9&6&:<55=&?;:5D&6<<?;BH<5A&<>&<45&A5S58>=G57<&>J&<45& m122
75<& J;767C;7F& ?5`H;?5G57<& >J& <45& =?;S6<5& :5C<>?& 67A& ;<:& mg22
;7C?56:5N& *<& <45& 57A& >J& 122dD& <45& B546S;>H?& >J& <45& =?;S6<5& me22
:5C<>?& C467F5A& ?6A;C6889& 6:& 6& ?5:H8<& >J& <45& 6AS5?:5&
G6C?>5C>7>G;C& 67A& J;767C;68& 57S;?>7G57<& ;7& <45& @6X5& >J&
.67X&A5=>:;<:&m&4>H:54>8A:
<45& C?;:;:N& %45& 75<& :6S;7F& J;767C;68& =>:;<;>7& ?5:H8<5A& ;7& 67&
)7S5:<G57<&C>H=>7:&m&4>H:54>8A:
;G=?>S5G57<& ;7& <45& :5C<>?]:& =>:;<;>7& S;:bxbS;:& <45& B67X;7F&
.67X&A5=>:;<:&m&7>7bJ;767C;68&C>?=>?6<;>7:
Q>S5?7G57<&:5CH?;<;5:&m&4>H:54>8A:
:9:<5G&67A&6&A5C8;75&;7&<45&8>67b<>bA5=>:;<&?6<;>&;7&J;?:<&468J&
>J&122aN&%45&:=55A&>J&<4;:&A5C8;75&:8>@5A&A>@7&;7&122a&R1N& G726%,W';<>9
m322
m122
mg22
me22
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
45
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
A5C?56:5AD& <45?5J>?5& ;<& @6:& H76B85& <>& >JJ:5<& A5=>:;<& Chart 2-28
@;<4A?6@68:& B9& <45& C>?=>?6<5& :5C<>?N& )7& <45& G567<;G5D&
Loan-to-deposit ratios in international comparison
A5G67A&J>?&;7S5:<G57<&JH7A&H7;<:&:HB:<;<H<;7F&A5G67A&J>?&
B67X&A5=>:;<:&;7C?56:5A&:;F7;J;C67<89D&@4;C4&m&>7&<45&@4>85& g22 #5?&C57<
"H?>[>75
'5@&"V&G5GB5?&:<6<5:
m& 68:>& A5C?56:5A& <45& JH?<45?& 6AOH:<G57<& >J& B67X:& ;7& <45&
1j2
8>67b<>bA5=>:;<&?6<;>N13&
122
)1*"--+.+$1*.$*"*4+94*-)9&))*$5*%1-)&(/+19*%10)&."+1./8*
.4)&)*"&)*2)#)&"(*5"0.$&2*2%99)2.+19*"*5%&.4)&*-)0(+1)*
+1* .4)* ($"1E.$E-)3$2+.* &".+$:&.6:5A&>7&>H?&5_=5C<6<;>7:D&
<45& 75<& :6S;7F& J;767C;68& =>:;<;>7& >J& <45& =?;S6<5& :5C<>?& @;88&
?5G6;7& ;7& =86C5& ;7& 1232& 6:& @588& 67A& G69& 5S57& :<?57F<457&
n%6B85& 3bepD& :HFF5:<;7F& 6& JH?<45?& A5C8;75& ;7& <45& 8>67b<>b
A5=>:;<& ?6<;>N& "_=5?;57C5& J?>G& 56?8;5?& C?;:5:& 68:>& ;G=8;5:& 6&
3j2
322
I5CN&2d
+W
-M
#,
!$
.Q
RV
-)
,%
""
,h
+""
."
*%
I5CN&2o
I"
',
(!
2
)%
j2
"H?>[>75
O*-)0&)"2)*+1*.4)*($"1E.$E-)3$2+.*&".+$*+1*6$2.*$.4)&*
'"17+19* 2)0.$&2* 4"2* '))1* $'2)&#)-* "2* B)((]* .4)*
-$6)2.+0*&".+$*&)6"+12*4+94*+1*&)9+$1"(*0$63"&+2$1N&
c;<4&?5F6?A&<>&<45&8>67b<>bA5=>:;<&?6<;>D&G6O>?&6AOH:<G57<:&
6?5& >CCH??;7F& ;7& <45& B67X;7F& :9:<5G:& >J& <45& "V& E5GB5?&
-<6<5:D& ;7C8HA;7F& <45& +57<?68& "6:<5?7& "H?>=567& C>H7<?;5:N&
%4;:& 6AOH:<G57<& =?>C5::& ;:& G>:<& =?>7>H7C5A& ;7& <45& .68<;C&
C>H7<?;5:D& @45?5& 6& A5C?56:5& ;7& 8>67b<>bA5=>:;<& ?6<;>& ;:&
;75S;<6B85& AH5& <>& <;F4<& 8;`H;A;<9& C>7A;<;>7:& 6AOH:<G57<:& >7&
<45& C?5A;<& :;A5& 6?5& J>:<5?5A& B9& ;7:HJJ;C;57<& A5=>:;<;7F&
6C<;S;<9N&%45&8>67b<>bA5=>:;<&?6<;>&>J&<45&RH7F6?;67&B67X;7F&
:5C<>?&?5G6;7:&:<;88&4;F4&;7&;7<5?76<;>768&C>G=6?;:>7f&4;F45?&
?6<;>:&6?5&>789&?5C>?A5A&;7&<45&.68<;C&C>H7<?;5:&67A&-8>S57;6&
;7&<45&+57<?68&"6:<5?7&"H?>=567&?5F;>7&67A&)?5867A&6G>7F&
E5GB5?&+>H7<?;5:&>J&<45&5H?>&[>75&n+46?<&1b1dpN
I5CN&2a
<7),W' I:W' I)$&+1' !HW' !6$#%,1' <_W' <,).,6&$#3(1' C:W' C2()6"$1' NRW'
S,60$#+1' >RW' >,&4"201' BRRW' B,#)6$&' R$(),6#' R2678,$#' 6,4"7#1' _eW'
_$)A"$1' RRW' R()7#"$1' _:W' _").2$#"$1' _eW' _$)A"$1' GIW' G&7A,#"$1' FDW'
F2#4$6+1' >SW' >2&4$6"$1' HYW' H70$#"$1' T_W' T7&$#31' G]W' G&7A$5"$1' BiW'
B=,%.'H,82*&"%
G726%,W'RB>1';<>9
JH?<45?& A5C8;75& ;7& <45& 8>67b<>bA5=>:;<& ?6<;>& @4;C4& ?5G6;7:&
4;F4&;7&?5F;>768&C>G=6?;:>7&n.>_&1b1pN&%45?5&;:D&4>@5S5?D&6&
4;F4&A5F?55&>J&H7C5?<6;7<9&?5F6?A;7F&<45&?6<5&>J&A5C8;75&;7&
<45&8>67b<>bA5=>:;<&?6<;>D&=6?<;CH86?89&>@;7F&<>&<45&C467F5:&
;7& <45& :<?HC<H?5& >J& 4>H:54>8A& :6S;7F:f& 457C5D& ;7& C6:5& >J&
H=:@;7F& ;7& 5C>7>G;C& F?>@<4& 857A;7F& 6C<;S;<9& G69& B5&
:<?>7F5?N
Box 2-2: Changes in the loan-to-deposit ratio during financial crises22
Prior to the financial crisis, the loan-to-deposit ratio rose at the fastest
the rise in deposits, with smaller adjustment on the asset side. Beyond
rate in countries struggling with a currency mismatch and particularly
the balance sheet adjustment in the private sector, the banking sector
with imbalances. The leverage of the banking system declined
managed to dampen its reliance on external funds with only moderate
significantly following the year of crisis23. In countries which
adjustments in lending.
experienced a financial crisis, a substantial part of this decline occurs
in the first two years and amounts to a total of 15-25 percentage points
In the Scandinavian countries, there was banking crisis in the early
over five years. It is important to note, however, that the rate fell by
1990s (in Finland and Sweden a currency crisis as well). Both Finland
40-60 percentage points from a higher level in countries with a
and Sweden applied stringent banking regulations in the 1980s.
currency mismatch and particularly in countries struggling with
Competition between banks intensified in reaction to the liberalisation
external balance problems (Chart 2-29). A similar trend may be
of the financial sector in 1986-1989, accompanied, however, by lack of
observed in connection with the Asian crisis as well. The decline of the
prudential regulation reform, while banks assumed increasingly high
loan-to-deposit ratio in these countries was essentially attributed to
risks. The macroeconomic environment also favoured a rapid growth
At the end of 2009, bank deposits accounted for 40 per cent of the portfolio of investment funds as a result of the decline recorded in the second half of the year,
thus only a small portion of new savings managed by investment funds could flow back into the banking system.
22
The Box significantly relies on the mimeo entitled “Experience Related to Bank Crises – Macroeconomic Consequences and Management Strategies” authored by
Attila Csajbók, Dániel Felcser, Zoltán M. Jakab, Mária Gyöngyi Körmendi, Judit Krekó, Henrik Kucsera, Katalin Szilágyi.
23
An episode is defined as a banking crisis – in accordance with the classification of the IMF – when the number of bankruptcies significantly rises in the corporate
and financial sectors of a country and the companies struggle to pay their debts on time.
21
46
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
!)-M-&$(&%R"&()'*'+)*,&)'%"!E"I)*!/&-/-%"E
Chart 2-29
Loan-to-deposit ratios in countries undergoing a crisis
(;7867A
122o
122j
122g
#5?&C57<
1223
3aaa
3aao
3aaj
3aag
3aa3
3ada
V$"1E.$E-)3$2+.*&".+$
#5?&C57<
3ado
3d2
3^2
3e2
312
322
d2
^2
e2
12
2
3adj
<mj <me <mg <m1 <m3 < <t3 <t1 <tg <te <tj
+>H7<?;5:&@;<4&=6:<&C?;:5:&n<><68p
+>H7<?;5:&@;<4&CH??57C9&G;:G6<C4&=?>B85G:
+>H7<?;5:&@;<4&5_<5?768&B6867C5&=?>B85G:
*:;67&C?;:;:
3^2
3j2
3e2
3g2
312
332
322
a2
d2
o2
3adg
#5?&C57<
3ad3
#5?&C57<
3aoa
3^2
3j2
3e2
3g2
312
332
322
a2
d2
o2
;4)*($"1E.$E-)3$2+.*&".+$2*')5$&)*
"1-*"5.)&*.4)*0&+2)2
3d2
3^2
3e2
312
322
d2
^2
e2
12
2
-@5A57
<7),W')'"#3"%$),(').,'3$),'7/').,'%6"("(9':.,'($08&,'%7#)$"#(').,'/7&&7-"#4'%72#)6",('X+,$6'7/').,'%6"("('$#3')+8,'7/'6"(5'"#'*6$%5,)(Z'X%266,#%+'
0"(0$)%.Z'"#').,'86"A$),'(,%)76W'B;h',M),6#$&'*$&$#%,'867*&,0W'R>ZW'C64,#)"#$'XJKK^1'B;Z1'>7&"A"$'X^Lkm1'B;1'R>Z1'>6$="&'X^LLKZ1'>2&4$6"$'
X^LL\1' R>Z1' B."&,' X^Lk^1' B;Z1' B7&20*"$' X^LLkZ1' B67$)"$' X^LLk1' B;1' R>Z1' B=,%.' H,82*&"%' X^LL\Z1' R%2$376' X^LLk1' R>Z1' R()7#"$' X^LLJZ1'
!"#&$#3'X^LL^1'B;Z1'I#37#,("$'X^LLl1'B;1'R>Z1'o$8$#'X^LLl1'B;Z1']76,$'X^LLl1'B;Z1'_$)A"$'X^LL[Z1'_").2$#"$'X^LL[Z1';$&$+("$'X^LLl1'
B;Z1';,M"%7'X^LLm1'B;Z1'<76-$+'X^LL^Z1'T$6$42$+'X^LL[Z1'T."&"88"#,('X^LLl1'B;1'R>Z1'H2(("$'X^LLkZ1'G-,3,#'X^LL^1'B;1'R>Z1':.$"&$#3'
X^LLl1'B;1'R>Z1':265,+'XJKKK1'B;1'R>Z1'D56$"#,'X^LLkZ1'D6242$+'XJKKJZ'e,#,=2,&$'X^LLmZ1'e",)#$0'X^LLlZ9':.,'6"4.)'.$#3'%.$6)'(.7-('
).,'"#3"%,('7/'C("$#'%72#)6",('"#').,'/"A,'+,$6('/7&&7-"#4').,'%6"("(9'
'G726%,W'I;!'I!G1'YRBN9
in lending: these countries depreciated their currencies in the early
the bubble at the end of the 1980s. The loan portfolio declined
1980s, competitiveness improved, the global economy grew at a
significantly during the crisis, in the early 1990s, and so did the loan-
dynamic pace and the terms of trade were favourable as a result of
to-deposit ratio in parallel, resulting in a sharp economic downturn
falling oil prices. Budgetary policy was expansive for years, particularly
and plummeting home prices. Following a rapid rise, during the crisis
in Sweden. The negative after-tax real interest rate (due to high
in the first half of the 1990s, the loan-to-deposit ratio fell by nearly 60
inflation and tax benefits) made borrowing attractive. Growing
percentage points in Sweden and 25 percentage points in Finland.
demand led to an increase in real estate and share prices (price
The change in loans and deposits contributed to varying degrees to
bubble), triggering a credit boom.
the decline in the loan-to-deposit ratio. While bank deposits
increased in Sweden, households in Finland cut their bank savings.
Peaking real estate and share prices, market reactions to imbalances
This forced banks in Finland to tighten their lending more than in
and the rising domestic interest rates foreshadowed the bursting of
Sweden.
;4)*#$(%6)*$5*)?.)&1"(*5%1-2*-)0&)"2)-*$1(/*.$*"*#)&/*
6+1$&*)?.)1.:&)7&<45&6H<HG7&>J&122dD&<45&B67X;7F&F?>H=:&
=?5:57<&;7&<45&+57<?68&"6:<5?7&"H?>=567&?5F;>7&:HB:<67<;6889&
;7C?56:5A& <45;?& :HB:;A;6?;5:]& J>?5;F7& JH7A;7FN& )7& 122aD& <45&
S>8HG5& >J& 5_<5?768& JH7A;7F& B5F67& A5C8;7;7F& 6:& 6& ?5:H8<& >J&
7>?G68;:;7F& 8;`H;A;<9& 67A& B6867C5& :455<& 6AOH:<G57<:N& %45&
S>8HG5& >J& 5_<5?768& JH7A:& ?5G6;75A& 6B>S5& 85S58:& ?5C>?A5A&
=?;>?&<>&<45&C?;:;:&;7&-5=<5GB5?&122d&>789&;7&RH7F6?9&67A&
#>867A&n+46?<&1bg2pN&%45&:=55A&>J&B6867C5&:455<&6AOH:<G57<&
24
25
;:& ?5:<?6;75A& B9& <45& J6C<& <46<& <45& G6O>?& =6?57<& B67X:& 46S5&
C>GG;<<5A& <45G:58S5:& <>& :H:<6;7;7F& <45;?& 5_=>:H?5& 6<&
6==?>=?;6<5& 85S58:& @;<4;7& <45& J?6G5@>?X& >J& <45& :>bC6885A&
.?H::58:&=?>C5AH?5N1e&IH5&<>&<4;:&J6C<>?&7>&>?&>789&G;7;G68&
6AOH:<G57<& @6:& >B:5?S5A& ;7& <45& ?58;67C5& >J& <45& B67X;7F&
:9:<5G& >7& 5_<5?768& JH7A:N& )7& C6:5& >J& RH7F6?9D& <4;:& ;:&
6<<?;BH<6B85&<>&<45&J6C<&<46<&<45&B67X:&<>>X&>S5?&6&86?F5&:46?5&
>J&<45&J;767C;7F&>J&<45&:<6<5&nC57<?68&:<6<5&BHAF5<&67A&C57<?68&
B67Xp1j&n+46?<&1bg3pN&
http://www.mnb.hu/Engine.aspx?page=mnbhu_pressreleases_2009&ContentID=13393.
This process was realised in the stock of two-week MNB bills.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
47
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
Chart 2-30
Chart 2-31
Changes in the foreign funding of Central Eastern
European (CEE) banking systems and the foreign
funding of parent banks’ banking systems
Composition and maturity structure of the external
funds of the domestic banking system and net
exposure to economic sectors
!$
1j
122
3j2
2a&qe
2a&qg
2a&q1
2a&q3
12
j
32
2
2
-<6<H:&57A&>J&122a
%;G5&A;:=5?:;>7&m&122d&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p&n:<6?<;7F&122ap
%;G5&A;:=5?:;>7&m&122a&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
)%
(!
',
*HFN&2a
I5CN&2d
*=?N&2d
*HFN&2o
I5CN&2^
."
*%
<7),W'>S`'>2&4$6"$1'Bi`'B=,%.'H,82*&"%1'T_`'T7&$#31'HY`'H70$#"$1'
FD`'F2#4$6+1'NR'`'S,60$#+1'I:`'I)$&+1'>R`'>,&4"201'!H`'!6$#%,1'
<_`'<,).,6&$#3(1'C:`'C2()6"$Z9
G726%,W'RB>1'#$)"7#$&'%,#)6$&'*$#5(9
A"&)1.* '"17* 0$66+.6)1.2* 6+.+9".)* .4)* &+272* "&+2+19*
5&$6*.4)*4+94*&".)*$5*24$&.E.)&6*5$&)+91*5%1-+19:&*<&<45&
57A&>J&122aD&<45&?6<5&>J&:4>?<&<5?G&G6<H?;<;5:&@;<4;7&J>?5;F7&
JH7A:& 6==?>6C45A& ed& =5?& C57<N& *:& 6& ?5:H8<D& <45& ?>88>S5?&
A5G67A& >J& J>?5;F7& JH7A;7F& ?5G6;7:& 4;F4f& ;7& 1232& <45&
A>G5:<;C&B67X;7F&:9:<5G&:4>@:&6&:HB:<67<;68&n6==?>_;G6<589&
"V!& 3o& B;88;>7p& J;767C;7F& ?5`H;?5G57<N& #6?57<& B67X&
C>GG;<G57<:D& 4>@5S5?D& :;F7;J;C67<89& ?5AHC5& <45& ?>88>S5?&
?;:X:N&.9&<45&57A&>J&122aD&<45&?6<;>&>J&JH7A:&J?>G&>@75?:&<>&
5_<5?768&JH7A:&?>:5&<>&^2&=5?&C57<N&%4;:&<?57A&;:&;7&C>??586<;>7&
@;<4& <45& C57<?68;:6<;>7& >J& 8;`H;A;<9& G676F5G57<& @;<4;7& <45&
B67X;7F& F?>H=:D& @4;C4& ?5AHC5:& ?>88>S5?& ?;:X:& 67A& 576B85:&
G>?5& 5JJ;C;57<& 8;`H;A;<9& G676F5G57<& @;<4;7& <45& F?>H=D& BH<&
68:>&8;G;<:&<45&:HB:;A;6?;5:&;7&;7A5=57A57<&JH7A;7F&J?>G&<45&
G6?X5<:&n+46?<&1bg3pN
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
e2
gj
g2
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
T).*5+1"10+"(*3$+.+$12*"2*"*3)&0)1."9)*$5*@=A
#5?&C57<
I5CN&2g
*=?N&2e
*HFN&2e
I5CN&2e
*=?N&2j
*HFN&2j
I5CN&2j
*=?N&2^
*HFN&2^
I5CN&2^
*=?N&2o
*HFN&2o
I5CN&2o
*=?N&2d
*HFN&2d
I5CN&2d
*=?N&2a
*HFN&2a
I5CN&2a
I"
*=?N&2^
*HFN&2j
I5CN&2e
2d&qe
32
j2
48
2d&qg
g2
322
2
2d&q1
3j
121d
1j2
e2
121^
g22
j2
12
121e
gj2
;4)*6".%&+./*2.&%0.%&)*$5*5$&)+91*(+"'+(+.+)2
.7&"V!
#5?&C57<
1211
O22).2*$5*.4)*<%&$[$1)*'"17+19*2)0.$&2*+1*.4+&0$%1.&+)2*C=)0:*PQQ^*_WQQ`F
#5?&C57<
1212
RV
I5CN&2a
TH75&2a
I5CN&2d
TH75&2d
I5CN&2o
TH75&2o
#,
123d
e22
+W
d2
o2
^2
j2
e2
g2
12
32
2
-4>?<b<5?G&J>?5;F7&8;6B;8;<;5:&>J&B?67C45:
-4>?<b<5?G&J>?5;F7&8;6B;8;<;5:&>J&B67X:
#6?57<&B67X&8;6B;8;<;5:&<>&<><68&J>?5;F7&8;6B;8;<;5:
n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
,5::&<467&>75&956?&G6<H?;7F&J>?5;F7&8;6B;8;<;5:&<>
<><68&J>?5;F7&8;6B;8;<;5:&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
1232
.Q
I5CN&2^
TH75&2^
I5CN&2j
I5CN&2e
2
TH75&2j
322
2d&q3
122
2o&qe
2^&qe
g22
2o&qg
e22
2o&q1
j22
123^
^22
123e
o22
2o&q3
;4)*0$63$2+.+$1*$5*5$&)+91*(+"'+(+.+)2
#5?&C57<
E7&"V!
1eD222
13D222
3dD222
3jD222
31D222
aD222
^D222
gD222
1231
d22
!$&)+91*(+"'+(+.+)2*$5*G<<*'"17+19*2)0.$&2
C=)0:*PQQ^*_*WQQ*`F
#5?&C57<
'5<&J>?5;F7&6::5<:&>J&B67X:
%45&75<&=>:;<;>7&>J&<45&:<6<5&n;7C8N&C57<?68&B67Xp&@;<4&B67X:
%45&75<&=>:;<;>7&>J&=?;S6<5&:5C<>?&@;<4&B67X:
<7),W' I#' ).,' ()7%5' $072#)' 7/' (.76)E),60' ,M),6#$&' /2#3(1' &"$*"&")",(' $6,'
"#3"%$),3'*$(,3'7#'0$)26")+'X"9,9'/2#3('0$)26"#4'"#'7#,'+,$6Z9'I#').,'%$(,'
7/'(.76)E),60'/2#3"#41'/2#3"#4'0$)26"#4'"#'7#,'+,$6'"('"#3"%$),3'$#3'"#'
).,' %$(,' 7/' 0$)26")+' ()62%)26,' *$#5"#4' (,%)76' &,A,&' 3$)$' $6,' "#3"%$),3'
X*$#5"#4' (,%)76' ,M%&23"#4' ;!>1' RM"0' $#3' ],&,61' *2)' %7#)$"#"#4'
*6$#%.,('7/'/76,"4#'"#()")2)"7#(Z':.,'6$)"7'7/'8$6,#)'*$#5'/2#3('-")."#'
,M),6#$&' /2#3(' "#3"%$),(' ).,' 6$)"7' 7/' /2#3(' /670' 7-#,6(h' ).,' /"426,'
%7#)$"#(' 3$)$' 7#' *$#5(' ,M%&23"#4' *6$#%.,(1' ;!>1' RM"0' $#3' ],&,69'
I#%&23"#4'7/').,'%,#)6$&'*$#5'"#').,'()$),'"('#,%,(($6+'32,')7').,'!b'&7$#('
36$-#'*+').,'()$),9
G726%,W';<>9
!)-M-&$(&%R"&()'*'+)*,&)'%"!E"I)*!/&-/-%"E
J>?5;F7&CH??57C9&8>67&=>?<J>8;>&68:>&=8695A&6&G6O>?&?>85&;7&
<45&C8>:;7F&>J&<45&>7bB6867C5&:455<&=>:;<;>7N&)7&6AA;<;>7&<>&
<45& 6B>S5D& <45& :@6=& 5_=>:H?5& >J& <45& B67X;7F& :9:<5G& @6:&
8>@5?5A&B9&<45&J6C<&<46<&;7<5?76<;>76889&6C<;S5&B67X:&?5AHC5A&
<45;?&J>?5;F7&=86C5G57<:&;7&122aN&)7&<45&:5C>7A&468J&>J&<45&
956?D& ;7& =6?68858& @;<4& <45& A5C?56:;7F& :=55A& >J& >7bB6867C5&
:455<& 6AOH:<G57<D& <45& C8>:;7F& >J& <45& >7bB6867C5& :455<&
(ib=>:;<;>7&:8>@5A&6:&@588&n+46?<&1bg1pN
;4)*&$(($#)&*&+27*$5*!Z*2B"32*+2*&)-%0)-*'/*.4)*4+94)&*
"#)&"9)*6".%&+./*$5*.&"12"0.+$12*0$63"&)-*.$*3&)#+$%2*
/)"&2*"1-*.4)*2.+((*"0.+#)*&$()*$5*3"&)1.*'"172:&%45&?>85&
>J&=6?57<&B67X:&@;<4;7&<45&F?>::&=>?<J>8;>&?5G6;75A&4;F4&
Chart 2-33
FX swap portfolio of domestic credit institutions,
rate of intra-group transactions and average
maturity by partner type
jD222
eDj22
eD222
gDj22
gD222
1Dj22
1D222
3Dj22
3D222
j22
2
Chart 2-32
gN2
G726%,W';<>9
h>8HG5b5JJ5C<
RV(&5_C467F5&?6<5&5JJ5C<
%45&C467F5&;7&>7bB6867C5&
:455<&(i&=>:;<;>7
(>?5;F7&=6?57<
(>?5;F7&n<><68p
T67N&32
-5=N&2a
2N2
E69&2a
2N2
T67N&2a
m3D222
2Nj
-5=N&2d
m3D222
2Nj
E69&2d
mj22
3N2
T67N&2d
mj22
3N2
-5=N&2o
2
3Nj
E69&2o
2
3Nj
T67N&2o
j22
1N2
-5=N&2^
j22
1N2
E69&2^
3D222
1Nj
T67N&2^
3D222
T67N&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH89&2o
-5=N&2o
'>SN&2o
T67N&2d
E6?N&2d
E69&2d
TH89&2d
-5=N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
E6?N&2a
E69&2a
TH89&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
3Dj22
/56?: gN2
-5=N&2j
1D222
3Dj22
+>G=>:;<;>7b5JJ5C<
"V!l+R(&5_C467F5&
?6<5&5JJ5C<
j2
ej
e2
gj
g2
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
1Nj
E69&2j
1D222
/56?:
T67N&2j
X#7)'%202&$),3Z
.7&RV(
#5?&C57<
%><68&75<&:@6=&>H<:<67A;7F&6G>H7<
%45&?6<;>&>J&;7<?6bF?>H=&<?67:6C<;>7:&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
Development and breakdown of changes in the
on-balance sheet FX position of the domestic
banking system
.7&RV(
.7&RV(
T67N&2e
E69&2e
-5=N&2e
T67N&2j
E69&2j
-5=N&2j
T67N&2^
E69&2^
-5=N&2^
T67N&2o
E69&2o
-5=N&2o
T67N&2d
E69&2d
-5=N&2d
T67N&2a
E69&2a
-5=N&2a
T67N&32
!$(($B+19*.4)*0&+2+2*)?3$2%&)*$5*.4)*-$6)2.+0*'"17+19*
2/2.)6* -)0&)"2)-* 6"+1(/* -%)* .$* .4)* 9&$B.4* +1* .4)*
#$(%6)* $5* 5$&)+91* 0%&&)10/* -)3$2+.2* "1-* .4)* 5"((+19*
#$(%6)* $5* 5$&)+91* 0%&&)10/* ($"12:& %45& C467F5& ;7& <45&
>7bB6867C5&:455<&(i&=>:;<;>7&C6H:;7F&:@6=&5_=>:H?5&C67&B5&
B?>X57& A>@7& ;7<>& C>G=>:;<;>7D& S>8HG5& 67A& 5_C467F5& ?6<5&
5JJ5C<:N&%45&C>G=>:;<;>7&5JJ5C<&856A:&<>&6&C467F5&;7&<45&(i&
:@6=& =>?<J>8;>& ;J& <45& B67X& CH:<>G5?:D& @4;85& X55=;7F& <45&
6G>H7<&>J&6::5<:&n8>67:p&67A&8;6B;8;<;5:&nA5=>:;<:p&6<&6&:<6B85&
85S58D&C467F5&<45;?&A57>G;76<;>7&:<?HC<H?5N&)J&<45&>7bB6867C5&
:455<&(i&=>:;<;>7&67A&(i&:@6=&=>?<J>8;>&F?>@:&AH5&<>&<45&
C>G=>:;<;>7& 5JJ5C<D& <45& <><68& 6::5<:& >J& <45& B67X;7F& :9:<5G&
@;88&?5G6;7&6<&<45&56?8;5?&85S58N&*&S>8HG5&5JJ5C<&>CCH?:&;J&<45&
>7bB6867C5& :455<& (i& =>:;<;>7& C467F5:& ;7& ?56C<;>7& <>& ;<5G:&
@4;C4& 6CC>G=679& <45& ;7C?56:5& >?& A5C?56:5& >J& <45& B6867C5&
:455<& <><68N& %45& 5_C467F5& ?6<5& 5JJ5C<& ;:& <45& ?5:H8<& >J& <45&
C467F5&;7&>7bB6867C5&:455<&(i&6::5<:&67A&8;6B;8;<;5:&67A&<45&
J>?;7<&5`H;S6857<&>J&<45&:@6=&=>?<J>8;>&C6H:5A&B9&5_C467F5&
?6<5& J8HC<H6<;>7:N& %45& ?;:5& ;7& <45& RV(& :@6=& =>?<J>8;>&
5_=?5::5A&;7&J>?;7<&;7&<45&:=?;7F&>J&122a&;:&6<<?;BH<5A&<>&6&
86?F5& 5_<57<& <>& <45& @56X57;7F& >J& <45& J>?;7<& 5_C467F5& ?6<5D&
@4;85&<45&:HB:5`H57<&A5C8;75&@6:&8;7X5A&<>&<45&:<?57F<457;7F&
>J& J>?;7<& 5_C467F5& ?6<5N& %45& A5C8;7;7F& <?57A& >J& <45& :@6=&
=>?<J>8;>D& 4>@5S5?D& @6:& G6;789& <45& ?5:H8<& >J& <45& S>8HG5&
5JJ5C<N& %45& C>?=>?6<5& :5C<>?& 67A& <45& 4>H:54>8A& :5C<>?&
;7C?56:5A& <45;?& J>?5;F7& CH??57C9& A5=>:;<:& B9& <45& G;AA85& >J&
<45&956?&67A&B9&<45&6H<HG7&>J&122aD&?5:=5C<;S589D&B6:;C6889&
@;<4>H<&679&?5AHC<;>7&;7&<45&J>?;7<&A5=>:;<&=>?<J>8;>D&@4;C4&
=?;G6?;89& J;767C5A& J>?;7<& ;7:<?HG57<:N& %45& A5C8;75& ;7& <45&
c;<4>H<&J>?5;F7&=6?57<
I>G5:<;C
<7),W' :.,' 876)/7&"7' "#3"%$),(' #,)' ,M87(26,9' :.,' &,/)E.$#3' %.$6)' (.7-('
).,'6$)"7'7/'"#)6$E46728')6$#($%)"7#(')7').,')7)$&'467(('()7%5'7/'/76,"4#E
7-#,3'%6,3")'"#()")2)"7#(9'I#').,'6"4.)E.$#3'%.$6)1').,'$A,6$4,'0$)26")+'
6,&$),(')7').,'467(('876)/7&"79
G726%,W';<>9
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
49
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
85S58& ;7& <45& :5C>7A& 468J& >J& <45& 956?D& BH<& 6& :8;F4<& A5C?56:5&
J?>G&<45&=?5S;>H:&85S58&>J&6?>H7A&ejr&A;A&B5F;7N&%4;:&@6:&
G6;789& AH5& <>& <45& J6C<& <46<& ?58;67C5& >7& =6?57<& B67X:&
A5C?56:5A&@;<4&<45&5_=67:;>7&>J&C>H7<5?=6?<9&8;G;<:N&%45&
50
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
6S5?6F5& G6<H?;<9& >J& <45& :@6=& =>?<J>8;>& ;:& 8>7F5?& <467& ;7&
=?5S;>H:&956?:D&@;<4&<45&C?>::&CH??57C9&:@6=&<?67:6C<;>7:&
C>7C8HA5A& @;<4& =6?57<& B67X:& =869;7F& 6& :;F7;J;C67<& ?>85& ;7&
<4;:&n+46?<&1bggpN&
2.3 Deteriorating portfolio quality, growing loan
restructuring
P").' ).,' 6,%,(("7#' "#' JKKL1' ).,' O2$&")+' 7/' ).,' %76876$),' $#3' Chart 2-34
.72(,.7&3'&7$#'876)/7&"7'7/'*7).'*$#5('$#3'/"#$#%"$&',#),686"(,('
Major quality indicators of banks’ corporate
3,),6"76$),3' ("4#"/"%$#)&+9' _7$#' &7((,(' 076,' ).$#' 372*&,31' portfolio and their distribution
-."&,' ).,' 6$),' 7/' 6,()62%)26"#4' 67(,' (.$68&+' $(' -,&&9' >+'
#5?&C57<
6,()62%)26"#4'*$3'&7$#('$#3'),0876$6"&+'3,%6,$("#4'3,*)'(,6A"%,' 31 #5?&C57<
*263,#(1' *$#5(' %$#' "0867A,' ).,' 6,8$+0,#)' %$8$%")+' 7/' ).,"6'
32
%&",#)('$#3'0")"4$),'&7$#'&7((,('"/').,',%7#70+'6,%7A,6('O2"%5&+9'
I#' JK^K' FJ1' $%%763"#4' )7' ).,' *$(,&"#,' (%,#$6"7' ).,' ,%7#70+'
d
-"&&'6,%7A,6'$#3').,'&$*726'0$65,)'-"&&'()$*"&"(,9'C('$'6,(2&)1').,'
^
6"(,'"#').,'6$),'7/'#7#E8,6/760"#4'&7$#('%72&3'(&7-'37-#'"#').,'
*$#5"#4'(,%)76'$#3'$)'/"#$#%"$&',#),686"(,(9'C%%763"#4&+1'-,'$6,'
e
,M8,%)"#4' $' %7#)"#272(' 3,%&"#,' 7/' &7$#' &7((,(1' $&).724.' ).,"6'
1
&,A,&'0$+'%7#)"#2,')7'*,'."4.,6').$#'"#'JKKk9
U)*-$*1$.*"1.+0+3".)*5%&.4)&*2+91+5+0"1.*-).)&+$&".+$1*
$5* .4)* 3$&.5$(+$* +1* .4)* 0$&3$&".)* 2)0.$&* +1* PQWQ8* "1-*
.4)* ($"1* ($22)2* $5* '"172* 6"/* -)0(+1):* *8<4>HF4& <45&
?5C>S5?9& >J& <45& RH7F6?;67& 5C>7>G9& G69& 86F& B54;7A& <45&
=6C5& >J& <45& A5S58>=5A& C>H7<?;5:D& @5& 6?5& 75S5?<4585::&
5_=5C<;7F& G>A5?6<5& 5C>7>G;C& F?>@<4& ;7& 1232& R1N& )7& <4;:&
=5?;>A&6&?5S5?:68&;:&68:>&5_=5C<5A&;7&<45&857A;7F&6C<;S;<9N&%45&
?6<5& >J& C>?=>?6<5& B67X?H=<C;5:& G69& =56X& ;7& 1232& R3D&
J>88>@5A&B9&6&A5C8;75N&)7&46?G>79&@;<4&<45&6B>S5&<?57AD&<45&
8>::5:& :HJJ5?5A& <4;:& 956?& >7& <45& C>?=>?6<5& 8>67& =>?<J>8;>&
26
27
32
d
^
e
1
-5=N&33
E6?N&33
-5=N&32
E6?N&32
-5=N&2a
E6?N&2a
-5=N&2d
E6?N&2d
-5=N&2o
-5=N&2^
E6?N&2o
2
E6?N&2^
2
V$22)2* 2%55)&)-* '/* '"172* $1* .4)* 0$&3$&".)* ($"1*
3$&.5$(+$* 6$&)* .4"1* -$%'()-* +1* PQQR:& %45& 5C>7>G;C&
?5C5::;>7& @6:& 68:>& ?5J85C<5A& ;7& <45& ?;:5& ;7& <45& C>?=>?6<5&
B67X?H=<C9&?6<5&J?>G&gN3&=5?&C57<&<>&eNd&=5?&C57<N&)7&=6?68858&
@;<4& <4;:D& <45& ?6<5& >J& 7>7b=5?J>?G;7F& 8>67:& n>S5?& a2& A69:&
>S5?AH51^p&OHG=5A&J?>G&eNo&=5?&C57<&6<&<45&57A&>J&122d&<>&
32N3& =5?& C57<& B9& <45& 57A& >J& 122a& n+46?<& 1bgepN& R>@5S5?D&
<45?5& 6?5& G6O>?& A;JJ5?57C5:& 6G>7F& B67X:D& 6:& <45?5& 6?5&
G6?X5<& =6?<;C;=67<:& @45?5& <4;:& S68H5& B6?589& ?56C45:& g& =5?&
C57<D&@4;85&;<&6==?>6C45:&3j&=5?&C57<&J>?&><45?:N&%45&G>:<&
?58;6B85& G56:H?5& J>?& C?5A;<& ?;:XD& 8>67& 8>::& ?6<5& n8>67& 8>::&
=?>S;:;>7;7F&<>&<45&=>?<J>8;>p&68:>&?>:5&:;F7;J;C67<89N1o&%45&
8>67&8>::&?6<5&?>:5&J?>G&3N1&=5?&C57<&<>&1Nj&=5?&C57<&nS6?9;7F&
B5<@557& 3& 67A& g& =5?& C57<D& A5=57A;7F& >7& :=5C;J;C& B67Xp& ;7&
122aD& :8;F4<89& 85::& <467& <45& g& =5?& C57<& S68H5& ;7& >H?& 56?8;5?&
5:<;G6<5N&%45&G6;7&?56:>7&J>?&<45&yH7A5?5:<;G6<;>7z&;:&<46<&
<45&B67X:&?5:<?HC<H?5A&67&;7C?56:;7F&7HGB5?&>J&=?>B85G6<;C&
8>67:& ;7& <45& =5?;>A& H7A5?& ?5S;5@D& <45?5B9& G;<;F6<;7F& <45;?&
755A&J>?&8>67&8>::&=?>S;:;>7;7F&n.>_&1bgpN&
31
g2ba2&A69:&A58;7`H57C9&?6<;>
a2t&A69:&A58;7`H57C9&?6<;>
+>:<&>J&=?>S;:;>7;7F&<>&<><68&>H<:<67A;7F&6G>H7<&
m&31bG>7<4&G>S;7F&6S5?6F5
+>?=>?6<5&B67X?H=<C9&?6<5
#5?&C57<
3d
3j
31
a
^
g
g2ba2&A69:
A58;7`H57C9
a2t&A69:&
A58;7`H57C9
?6<;>
+>:<&>J&=?>S;:;>7;7F
<>&<><68&>H<:<67A;7F
6G>H7<&b31bG>7<4
G>S;7F&6S5?6F5
2
<7),W' Y#' ).,' 6"4.)E.$#3' %.$6)1' "#' %$&%2&$)"#4' ).,' 0"#"020' $#3'
0$M"020'A$&2,(1'-,'7#&+'%7#("3,6,3'*$#5('-").'$'0$65,)'(.$6,'7/'7A,6'
['8,6'%,#)'*$(,3'7#').,'*$&$#%,'(.,,)')7)$&9
G726%,W';<>9
C>H8A&A5C?56:5D&BH<&G69&?5G6;7&4;F45?&<467&;7&122dN&%4;:&
J>?5C6:<&;:&G>?5&J6S>H?6B85&<467&>H?&56?8;5?&5_=5C<6<;>7:N&)<&
;:& 5::57<;6889& :H==>?<5A& B9& <@>& X59& J6C<>?:k& 8>::5:& ;7& 122a&
@5?5& 8>@5?& <467& 5_=5C<5A& 67A& <45& 5C>7>G;C& >H<8>>X& 46:&
B5C>G5&G>?5&J6S>H?6B85N&
In case of an installment is 90 days overdue, all of the outstanding loans of the given customer are considered to be non-performing (cross-default).
See in more detail: Tamás Balás: Comparison of the indicators describing the loan portfolio quality of the banking sector (Background paper III), November 2009.
http://english.mnb.hu/Resource.aspx?ResourceID=mnbfile&resourcename=stabjel_3_balas_200911_en.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
51
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
52
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
-5=N&2a
E6?N&2a
-5=N&2d
E6?N&2d
-5=N&2o
E6?N&2o
-5=N&2^
-5=N&2j
E6?N&2^
#5?&C57<
E6?N&2j
a2
dj
d2
oj
o2
^j
^2
jj
j2
ej
e2
gj
g2
%45&:46?5&>J&G>?<F6F5bB6CX5A&8>67:&<>&<><68&8>67:
%45&:46?5&>J&G>?<F6F5bB6CX5A&8>67:&<>&<><68&B67X&8>67:
-5=N&2a
E6?N&2a
-5=N&2a
E6?N&2a
-5=N&2d
E6?N&2d
-5=N&2o
E6?N&2o
-5=N&2^
E6?N&2^
-5=N&2j
E6?N&2j
E6?N&2e
,%h&>J&RV(&8>67:
-5=N&2e
-5=N&2g
112
132
122
3a2
3d2
3o2
3^2
3j2
3e2
3g2
312
332
322
E6?N&2g
,%h&>J&(i&8>67:
-5=N&2d
E6?N&2d
-5=N&2o
E6?N&2o
-5=N&2^
E6?N&2^
#5?&C57<
-5=N&2j
a2
dj
d2
oj
o2
^j
^2
jj
j2
ej
e2
gj
g2
-5=N&21
M1* PQWQ8* ($"1* ($22)2* 6"/* -)0(+1)* +1* &)(".+$1* .$*
4$%2)4$(-* ($"12:& *CC>?A;7F& <>& <45& G6C?>5C>7>G;C&
B6:58;75&:C576?;>D&<45&H75G=8>9G57<&?6<5&G69&=56X&;7&<45&
G;AA85&>J&1232N&*8<4>HF4&?568&;7C>G5:&G69&A5C8;75&JH?<45?D&
<45& =6C5& ;:& 5_=5C<5A& <>& B5& :8>@5?& <467& 86:<& 956?N& %4H:& <45&
?5=69G57<& C6=6C;<9& >J& 4>H:54>8A:& @;88& @>?:57& <>& 6& 85::5?&
5_<57<&<467&;7&<45&=?5S;>H:&956?N&.6:5A&>7&<45&G6C?>5C>7>G;C&
J>?5C6:<:D&@5&6?5&<45?5J>?5&67<;C;=6<;7F&6&J86<<57;7F&H=@6?A&
<?57A&;7&<45&?6<5&>J&7>7b=5?J>?G;7F&8>67:N&IH5&<>&5_<57:;S5&
Average LTV ratio of household loans in the banking
system and home prices
E6?N&2j
;4)* 4$%2)4$(-* ($"1* 3$&.5$(+$* -).)&+$&".)-* "1-* .4)*
&)2%(.+19* ($22)2* &$2)* 2+91+5+0"1.(/* +1* .4)* '"17+19*
2/2.)6:& %45& @56X57;7F& C?5A;<@>?<4;75::& >J& 4>H:54>8A:&
@6:&68:>&G67;J5:<5A&;7&<45&A5<5?;>?6<;>7&>J&<45&B67X:]&8>67&
=>?<J>8;>&;7&<45&=6:<&956?N&%45&?6<5&>J&7>7b=5?J>?G;7F&8>67:&
n>S5?& a2& A69:& >S5?AH5p& @;<4;7& <45& <><68& 8>67& =>?<J>8;>& @6:&
<@;C5& 6:& 4;F4& 6:& <45& 85S58& ;7& 122d& 67A& 6==?>6C45A& d& =5?&
C57<N&%45&?6<;>:&6G>7F&G6O>?&B67X:&@5?5&:=?56A&;7&6&?67F5&
>J&^b3^&=5?&C57<N&%45&8>67&8>::&?6<5&68:>&G>?5&<467&A>HB85A&
n:=?56A&;7&<45&3b^&=5?&C57<&?67F5p&<>&1Nj&=5?&C57<&;7&>75&956?&
n+46?<&1bg^pN&-;G;86?89&<>&<45&C>?=>?6<5&:5C<>?D&<45&J;FH?5&;:&
G>?5& J6S>H?6B85& <467& @5& =?5S;>H:89& 5:<;G6<5A& AH5& <>&
?5:<?HC<H?;7FN&
Chart 2-35
E6?N&21
;4)* 0&)-+.B$&.4+1)22* $5* 4$%2)4$(-2* B$&2)1)-* "2* "*
&)2%(.* $5* .4)* 0$6'+1)-* +63"0.* $5* -).)&+$&".+19*
5+1"10+"(*"1-*6"0&$)0$1$6+0*5"0.$&2:&)7&122a&R3D&<45&
RV(& 5_C467F5& ?6<5& :HB:<67<;6889& A5=?5C;6<5AD& :;F7;J;C67<89&
;7C?56:;7F&<45&A5B<&:5?S;C5&BH?A57&>J&4>H:54>8A:&@4;C4&6?5&
G6;789& ;7A5B<5A& ;7& J>?5;F7& CH??57C9N& %4;:& ;G=6C<& @6:&
JH?<45?& 6FF?6S6<5A& B9& <45& ?;:5& ;7& B67X& J;767C;7F& C>:<:& 67A&
<45;?& 6==56?67C5& ;7& 857A;7F& ?6<5:N& (;767C;68& C>7A;<;>7:&
;G=?>S5A&F?6AH6889&AH?;7F&<45&956?D&BH<&75F6<;S5&5C>7>G;C&
5JJ5C<:&C6G5&<>&<45&J>?5N&%45&A>G5:<;C&?6<5&>J&H75G=8>9G57<&
5_C55A5A& 32& =5?& C57<& 67A& ?568& ;7C>G5& A5C8;75AD& ?5AHC;7F&
C8;57<:]&6B;8;<9&<>&?5=69&A5B<N&)7&?586<;>7&<>&5_=5C<5A&8>::5:D&
<?57A:&;7&<45&8>67b<>bS68H5&?6<;>&6?5&68:>&6&X59&J6C<>?D&6:&d2&
=5?&C57<&>J&4>H:54>8A&B67X&8>67:&6?5&G>?<F6F5&8>67:N&%45&
?6=;A&?;:5&;7&<45&,%h&?6<;>&>J&G>?<F6F5&8>67:&@;<75::5A&;7&
<45&=6:<&n=6?<;CH86?89&;7&?586<;>7&<>&J>?5;F7&CH??57C9&8>67:p&
:<>==5A&;7&122aN&*<&<45&57A&>J&122aD&<45&6S5?6F5&,%h&?6<;>&
>J&J>?5;F7&CH??57C9&8>67:&6==?>_;G6<5A&oj&=5?&C57<&67A&j2&
=5?& C57<& ;7& ?586<;>7& <>& J>?;7<& 8>67:& n+46?<& 1bgjpN& *8<4>HF4&
<45& ,%h& ?6<;>& ;:& ?586<;S589& 8>@D& <45& =?5:57<& J688& ;7& 4>G5&
=?;C5:&?5AHC5:&C>S5?6F5&AH5&<>&<45&?5S68H6<;>7&>J&C>886<5?68N&
*:&67&6AA;<;>768&?;:XD&<45&B67X:&G69&:588&<45&C>886<5?68:&>J&
A5J6H8<5A& A5B<:D& C6H:;7F& 6& :;F7;J;C67<& A?>=& ;7& ?568& 5:<6<5&
=?;C5:N&R>@5S5?D&AH5&<>&<45&A5=?5::5A&=?;C5:&B67X:&=?5J5?&<>&
6S>;A&J;?5b:685:&>J&C>886<5?68:N
(R.&4>H:5&=?;C5&;7A5_
<7),W'I#'6,&$)"7#')7').,'!F>'.70,'86"%,'"#3,M1').,'JKK^'$##2$&'$A,6$4,'
`'^KK9':.,',M)6,0,'A$&2,'7/').,'_:e'6$)"7'"#';$6%.'JKKL'-$('%$2(,3'
*+').,'("4#"/"%$#)'-,$5,#"#4'7/').,',M%.$#4,'6$),
G726%,W';<>9
!)-M-&$(&%R"&()'*'+)*,&)'%"!E"I)*!/&-/-%"E
Chart 2-36
Chart 2-37
Major quality indicators of the credit institutions’
household portfolio and their distribution
Portfolio quality of financial enterprises
3j
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
3j
3^
RQa*-)(+1,%)10/*&".+$
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
3^
3e
3e
31
31
32
32
d
d
12
+>:<&>J&=?>S;:;>7;7F
<>&<45&<><68
>H<:<67A;7F&6G>H7<&m
31bG>7<4&G>S;7F
6S5?6F5
I5CN&2a
-5=N&2a
TH75&2a
E6?N&2a
I5CN&2d
-5=N&2d
TH75&2d
E6?N&2d
I5CN&2o
^
j
j
2
-5=N&2o
2
$<45?:
%><68
I5CN&2a
2
-5=N&2a
3
TH75&2a
3
E6?N&2a
1
I5CN&2d
1
-5=N&2d
31
TH75&2d
g
E6?N&2d
g
I5CN&2o
e
TH75&2o
e
e
a2t&A69:&
A58;7`H57C9
?6<;>
^
3^
d
g2ba2&A69:
A58;7`H57C9
-5=N&2o
;4)*0$2.*$5*3&$#+2+$1+19*.$*.$."(*$%.2."1-+19
"6$%1.
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57< o
o
E6?N&2o
g2ba2&A69:&A58;7`H57C9&?6<;>
a2t&A69:&A58;7`H57C9&?6<;>
+>:<&>J&=?>S;:;>7;7F&<>&<45&<><68&>H<:<67A;7F&6G>H7<&
m&31bG>7<4&G>S;7F&6S5?6F5
V75G=8>9G57<&?6<5
#5?&C57<
TH75&2o
1
2
E6?N&2o
1
2
-5=N&33
e
E6?N&33
e
-5=N&32
g
E6?N&32
g
-5=N&2a
^
E6?N&2a
^
-5=N&2d
^
E6?N&2d
^
-5=N&2o
a
E6?N&2o
a
-5=N&2^
31
E6?N&2^
31
c;<4&B67X&B6CXF?>H7A
<7),W'P,',M%&23,3'/$%)76"#4'%708$#",('"#'6,&$)"7#')7').,'6$)"7'7/'&7$#('
7A,632,' *+' 7A,6' LK' 3$+(' $#3' ).,' %7A,6$4,' 6$)"71' $(' ).,(,' -72&3'
("4#"/"%$#)&+'3"()76)'3$)$'32,')7').,"6'(8,%"$&"(,3'$%)"A")+9
<7),W'I#').,'6"4.)E.$#3'%.$6)1'"#'%$&%2&$)"#4').,'0"#"020'$#3'0$M"020'
A$&2,(1'-,'7#&+'%7#("3,6,3'*$#5('-").'$'0$65,)'(.$6,'7/'7A,6'['8,6'%,#)'
*$(,3'7#').,'*$&$#%,'(.,,)')7)$&9
G726%,W';<>9
G726%,W';<>9
c;<4&6&A5C8;75&;7&S54;C85&:685:D&<45&7HGB5?&>J&75@&C8;57<:&
;:& :;F7;J;C67<89& 85::& <467& ?5C>?A5A& ;7& <45& =?5S;>H:& 956?:D&
@4;85&<45&J688&;7&;7C>G5:&85A&<>&6&:<55=&?;:5&;7&<45&7HGB5?&
>J&<4>:5&A5J6H8<;7F&>7&<45;?&8>67:N&!5=69G57<&@;88;7F75::&
?586<5A& <>& <45:5& 8>67:& 68:>& A5C?56:5A& C>7:;A5?6B89& ;7&
C>G=6?;:>7& <>& G>?<F6F5& 8>67:N& *:& 6& ?5:H8<& >J& <45& 6B>S5&
J6C<>?:D& ;7& <45& C6:5& >J& J;767C;68& 57<5?=?;:5:D& <45& ?6<5& >J&
7>7b=5?J>?G;7F&8>67:&OHG=5A&J?>G&j&=5?&C57<&<>&>S5?&33&
=5?& C57<& 67A& 8>67& 8>::5:& ?>:5& J?>G& 3Nj& =5?& C57<& <>&
6==?>_;G6<589& eNj& =5?& C57<& ;7& 122aN& .><4& >J& <45:5&
;7A;C6<>?:& J>?& J;767C;68& 57<5?=?;:5:& @;<4>H<& B67X;7F&
B6CXF?>H7A& 6?5& 4;F45?& <467& ;7& <45& C6:5& >J& B67X:N& c4;85&
<45&?6<5&>J&8>67:&>S5?AH5&B9&>S5?&a2&A69:&?56C45A&32N1&=5?&
C57<& ;7& <45& =>?<J>8;>& >J& B67X& >@75A& 57<5?=?;:5:D& <4;:&
C?5A;<& ?5:<?HC<H?;7F& n.>_& 1bgp& 67A& <45& 8>@& ?6<;>& >J& :588;7F&
B6A&8>67:D&<45&4>H:54>8A&8>67&=>?<J>8;>&G69&B5&C85675A&H=&
6<& 6& ?586<;S589& :8>@& =6C5D& 67A& 6:& ?5:H8<& <45& ?6<;>& >J& 7>7b
=5?J>?G;7F& 8>67:& G69& ?5G6;7& 4;F4& J>?& 6& 8>7F& =5?;>A& >J&
<;G5N1d&%45&?6<5&>J&8>67&8>::5:&G69&68:>&A5C8;75&6<&6&F?6AH68&
=6C5D& BH<& ;<:& 85S58& @;88& C>7<;7H5& <>& :;F7;J;C67<89& 5_C55A&<45&
85S58&>J&<45&956?&122dN&
!+1"10+"(*)1.)&3&+2)2*B)&)*04"&"0.)&+2)-*'/*"*&"3+-(/*
-).)&+$&".+19* 3$&.5$(+$* "1-* ($"1* ($22)2* )?0))-+19*
.4)*($22)2*$5*'"172:*h54;C85&=H?C46:5&8>67:&?5=?5:57<&6&
:HB:<67<;68&=>?<;>7&;7&<45&=>?<J>8;>&>J&J;767C;68&57<5?=?;:5:N&
28
Ratio of non-performing loans can decrease without credit expansion if non-performing loan become performing again or if the banks write down or sell
them.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
53
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
J;FH?5& @6:& 3eNe& =5?& C57<& ;7& ?586<;>7& <>& 7>7bB67X& >@75A&
57<5?=?;:5:N&*&:;G;86?&A;JJ5?57C5&;:&>B:5?S5A&;7&?586<;>7&<>&
8>67& 8>::& =?>S;:;>7;7Fk& <45& ?6<5& ;:& gNo& =5?& C57<& J>?& <45&
J>?G5?&67A&jNa&=5?&C57<&J>?&<45&86<<5?&n+46?<&1bgopN&.67Xb
>@75A& J;767C;68& 57<5?=?;:5:& C>7<?;BH<5A& :;F7;J;C67<89& <>&
<45&8>67&8>::5:&>J&<45&B67X;7F&F?>H=:N&*<&<45&:6G5&<;G5D&
J;767C;68& 57<5?=?;:5:& @;<4>H<& 6& B67X;7F& B6CXF?>H7A& 68:>&
;7A;?5C<89& :HB:<67<;6889& ;7C?56:5& <45& C?5A;<& ?;:X:& ;7& <45&
B67X;7F& :9:<5GD& 6:& <45:5& J;767C;68& 57<5?=?;:5:& 6?5&
=?5A>G;767<89&J;767C5A&B9&?5:;A57<&B67X:1aN&
Box 2-3: Restructuring of loans
In the course of the financial crisis, banks have reinforced their
Chart 2-38
workout activity and supported the repayment capacity of their
Distribution of redefaulters among banks after
restructuring and ratio of restructuring to the
total credit portfolio in relation to households
customers by restructuring of loans. Restructuring may include
extending the maturity, temporarily modifying lending terms (e.g.
reducing instalments for a temporary period) or even rescheduling
principal repayments. Three factors can determine a bank’s
procedures, and the provisioning policy applied to restructuring
d2
caused by existing or potential loan repayment problems: firstly,
o2
expectations related to the recovery of customer solvency; secondly,
^2
profitability factors related to provisioning; and thirdly, the necessary
j2
prudent, cautious approach.
e2
#5?&C57<
bQa*-)(+1,%)10/*&".+$*B+.4+1*.4)*
&)2.&%0.%&)-*($"12
g2
In 2009, the ratio of restructured loans to the total bank loan portfolio
12
increased significantly, reaching 1.5 per cent for corporate customers
32
and over 3 per cent for households. According to the MNB lending
2
2m32r
32m12r
R>H:;7F&8>67:
survey , restructuring does not offer a final solution in many cases. On
30
the basis of banks’ experience, we may establish that the ratio of
delinquencies within restructured loans is not negligible in relation to
12mg2r
g2r{
R>G5&5`H;<9&8>67:
h54;C85&J;767C;7F&8>67:
;4)*&)2.&%0.%&)-*($"12*.$*.$."(*$%.2."1-+19
"6$%1.*+1*.4)*2)96)1.
#5?&C57<
certain types of loans. Half of the banks estimate the ratio of
“redefaults” at 20-30 per cent in relation to vehicle purchase loans,
eN2
gNj
while the majority observed a 10-20 per cent ratio in connection with
gN2
mortgage backed loans (Chart 2-38).
1Nj
1N2
The rise in restructuring has also attracted attention to the
3Nj
deficiencies in provisioning regulations relating to restructured
3N2
Government Decree 250/2000. (XII. 24.), effective as of 1 January
2010, restructured loans may not be rated in a more favourable
%><68
+>GB;75A&8>67:
'>SN&2a
$C<N&2a
-5=N&2a
*HFN&2a
of these is quite uncertain; thus the government decree permitted
lower-than-necessary provisioning. Pursuant to the amendment of
TH89&2a
2N2
into account that in the case of restructured transactions, the value
TH75&2a
2Nj
only on the basis of anticipated loss and collateral and failed to take
I5CN&2d
transactions. In the past, the law set out the necessary provisions
E>?<F6F5&8>67:
$<45?&8>67:
'G726%,W';<>9
category after restructuring; moreover, these may receive a rating
better than ‘substandard’ only in special cases. They are qualified as
repayment capacity of the debtor is satisfactory under the revised,
“problem-free” only upon joint fulfilment of three conditions:
new repayment terms; in the 365 days from restructuring, the debtor
possibly anticipated future losses – not probable at the time of
does not default for a period of over 15 days or 30 days in relation to
restructuring – are fully covered; the future principal and interest
households.
Financial enterprises without a banking background represent only 3 per cent of total banking system in terms of total assets, and only 6 per cent in terms of
claims on customers.
30
Senior Loan Officer survey on bank lending practices (February 2010), MNB,
http://www.mnb.hu/engine.aspx?page=mnbhu_hitelezesi_felmeres&ContentID=13740.
29
54
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
U+.4*.4)*)?0)3.+$1*$5*'"172*B+.4*5$&)+91*2%'2+-+"&+)28*
.4)* -$6)2.+0* '"17+19* 2/2.)6* "2* "* B4$()* 7))32* +.2*
.$."(* $3)1* !Z* 3$2+.+$1* ".* "* 2."'()8* ($B* ()#)(8* B4+04*
&),%+&)2*.4)*26$$.4*$3)&".+$1*$5*.4)*!Z*2B"3*6"&7).:&
c;<4&<45&5_C5=<;>7&>J&B67X:&@;<4&J>?5;F7&:HB:;A;6?;5:D&<45&
G6O>?;<9&>J&A>G5:<;C&C?5A;<&;7:<;<H<;>7:&G676F5A&<>&68G>:<&
JH889&45AF5&<45;?&>7bB6867C5&:455<&5_C467F5&?6<5&5_=>:H?5D&
B6:;C6889& H:;7F& CH??57C9& :@6=& <?67:6C<;>7:& n+46?<& 1bgapN&
-;7C5& <45& :=?;7F& >J& 122aD& <45& C>:<:& 67A& ?;:X:& ?586<5A& <>&
45AF;7F&46S5&A5C?56:5A&;7&=6?68858&@;<4&<45&:<6B;8;:6<;>7&>J&
<45&(i&G6?X5<]:&>=5?6<;>7&67A&<45&C8>:;7F&>J&<45&>7bB6867C5&
:455<&(i&=>:;<;>7N&%4;:&;:&?5J85C<5A&B9&<45&J6C<&<46<&;G=8;5A&
9;58A:& 6==?>_;G6<5A& G>759& G6?X5<& 9;58A& 85S58:& 67A& <45&
6S5?6F5& G6<H?;<9& >J& <?67:6C<;>7:& ?>:5& C>G=6?5A& <>& <45&
B5F;77;7F&>J&<45&956?N&%45&<><68&>=57&(i&=>:;<;>7&>J&B67X:&
@;<4&J>?5;F7&:HB:;A;6?;5:D&4>@5S5?D&;:&:;F7;J;C67<&AH5&<>&<45&
J6C<& <46<& C6=;<68& ;7S5:<G57<:& ;7& ><45?& G5GB5?:& >J& <45&
B67X;7F&F?>H=:&6?5&7><&45AF5A&@;<4&:@6=&<?67:6C<;>7:N
;4)*+1.)&)2.*&+272*$5*.4)*'"17+19*2/2.)6*"&)*2.+((*1$.*
4+94:* )7& <45& C6:5& >J& <45& J>?;7<D& <45& CHGH86<5A& ?5b=?;C;7F&
F6=g3&;:&;7&<45&75F6<;S5&?67F5N&%45?5J>?5D&6CC>?A;7F&<>&<4;:&
;7A;C6<>?& ;7<5?5:<& ?6<5& 4;X5:& C>H8A& ;7C?56:5& 56?7;7F:& ?;:X:N&
(>88>@;7F& 67& 6AOH:<G57<& @;<4& ;7<5?5:<& ?;F;A& :;F4<& A5=>:;<:&
<45&?5b=?;C;7F&F6=&;:&68G>:<&C8>:5AD&:>&6&C467F5&;7&J>?;7<&B6:5&
?6<5:& 46:& 7>& :;F7;J;C67<& 5JJ5C<& >7& <45& =?>J;<6B;8;<9& >J& <45&
B67X;7F& :5C<>?& ;7& :4>?<& <5?GN& %45& 5H?>& 67A& V-& A>886?&
?5b=?;C;7F& F6=& ;:& 75F6<;S5& 6==?>_;G6<;7F& [5?>D& @4;85& <45&
-@;::& J?67C& ;:& =>:;<;S5D& :8;F4<89& 4;F45?& <467& <45& 677H68&
6S5?6F5&>J&<45&=?5S;>H:&956?Ng1&%45&?5b=?;C;7F&F6=&:4>@5A&6&
$C<N&2a
*=?N&2a
T67N&2a
$C<N&2d
TH89&2d
*=?N&2d
T67N&2d
$C<N&2o
TH89&2o
*=?N&2o
T67N&2o
:.,' %266,#%+' (-$8' 0$65,)' %7#)"#2,(' )7' 8&$+' $' 5,+' 67&,' "#' Chart 2-39
.,34"#4' ).,' 7#E*$&$#%,' (.,,)' ,M%.$#4,' 6$),' 6"(5' 7/' ).,'
Total open position of the banking system
370,()"%' *$#5"#4' (+(),01' -."%.' "(' 3,%6,$("#4' *2)' 6,0$"#('
."4.9' :.,' (077).' 78,6$)"7#' 7/' )."(' 0$65,)' "(' %62%"$&' )7' ).,' jj #5?&C57<
j2
()$*"&")+' 7/' ).,' *$#5"#4' (+(),09' :.,' 0$@76")+' 7/' 370,()"%' ej
*$#5('0$"#)$"#').,"6')7)$&'78,#'!b'87(")"7#'$)'$'%7#("(),#)&+' e2
gj
&7-' &,A,&1' -").' ).,' ,M%,8)"7#' 7/' *$#5(' -").' /76,"4#' g2
1j
(2*("3"$6",(9':.,'"#),6,()'6$),'6"(5'7/').,'*$#5"#4'(+(),0'()"&&' 12
/$&&('"#'$'073,6$),'6$#4,9'P").').,'3,%&"#,'"#'+",&3('("#%,').,' 3j
32
j
(86"#4'7/'&$()'+,$61'$886,%"$)"7#'7/').,'47A,6#0,#)'(,%26")",('
2
876)/7&"7' .$(' "#%6,$(,3' ).,' 867/")(' 7/' ).,' 370,()"%' *$#5"#4' mj
(+(),09
TH89&2a
2.4 Low market risks
%45&<><68&>=57&(i&=>:;<;>7&<>&<45&>@7&JH7A:&J>?&:>8S57C9&
=H?=>:5:
%45&<><68&>=57&(i&=>:;<;>7&<>&<45&>@7&JH7A:&J>?&:>8S57C9&
=H?=>:5:&m&@;<4>H<&B67X:&@;<4&:HB:;A;6?;5:
%45&<><68&>=57&(i&=>:;<;>7&<>&<45&>@7&JH7A:&J>?&:>8S57C9&
=H?=>:5:&m&B67X:&@;<4&:HB:;A;6?;5:
<7),W' :.,' )7)$&' 78,#' !b' 87(")"7#' %766,(87#3(' )7' ).,' (20' 7/' ).,'
7#E*$&$#%,' (.,,)' /76,"4#' %266,#%+' $((,)(' $#3' ).,' 7//E*$&$#%,' (.,,)'
/76,"4#' %266,#%+' 6,%,"A$*&,(' #,)' 7/' 7#E*$&$#%,' (.,,)' /76,"4#' %266,#%+'
&"$*"&")",(' $#3' 7//E*$&$#%,' (.,,)' /76,"4#' %266,#%+' 3,*)(9' :.,' %.$6)'
"#%&23,(',#3E7/E07#).'3$)$9
G726%,W';<>9
G>A5?6<5& A5C?56:5& ;7& <45& J;768& `H6?<5?& ;7& <45& C6:5& >J& 688&
<4?55&J>?5;F7&CH??57C;5:N
O2*"*&)2%(.*$5*-)0(+1+19*5$&+1.*/+)(-2*2+10)*.4)*23&+19*
$5*("2.*/)"&8*.4)*'"17+19*2/2.)6*&)"(+2)-*2.&$19*3&$5+.2*
$1* 9$#)&16)1.* 2)0%&+.+)2* +1* PQQR:& %45& C6=;<68& G6?X5<&
5_=>:H?5&>J&<45&B67X;7F&:9:<5G&6CC>H7<:&J>?&db32&=5?&C57<&
>J& <><68& 6::5<:& C>G=>:5A& =?5A>G;767<89& >J& F>S5?7G57<&
:5CH?;<;5:& n+46?<& 1be2pN& %45& S6:<& G6O>?;<9& >J& <45& RV(b
A57>G;76<5A& F>S5?7G57<& :5CH?;<;5:& =>?<J>8;>D& ?>HF489& d2&
=5?&C57<D&;:&>J&8>7F5?&G6<H?;<9N&*&=5?:;:<57<&67A&:HB:<67<;68&
A5C?56:5&;7&J>?;7<&9;58A:&C>H8A&?5:H8<&;7&6&:;F7;J;C67<&=?>J;<&
;7C?56:5& J>?& <45& B67X;7F& :9:<5G& >7& <45& F>S5?7G57<& B>7A&
=>?<J>8;>N&%45&5_<57<&>J&<4;:&=?>J;<&A5=57A:&>7&<45&:46?5&>J&
5_=>:H?5&45AF5A&B9&;7<5?5:<&?6<5&:@6=:&67A&><45?&A5?;S6<;S5:&
67A& <45& 6CC>H7<;7F& :<67A6?A:& 6==8;5A& B9& <45& B67X:N&
*CC>?A;7F89D&AH5&<>&A5C?56:;7F&9;58A:&67A&76??>@;7F&;7<5?5:<&
?6<5&:@6=&:=?56A:D&<45&B67X;7F&:9:<5G&?568;:5A&6&:;F7;J;C67<&
=?>J;<N&%45&CHGH86<5A&8>::5:&?5:H8<;7F&J?>G&<45&?5S68H6<;>7&
The re-pricing gap shows the difference between re-priced assets and liabilities within 90 days in proportion to the balance sheet total, including on-balance
sheet and off-balance sheet items as well. The negative gap increases profitability upon an interest rate cut and decreases it upon an interest rate hike.
32
The re-pricing gap is positive in the case of the Swiss franc mainly as a result of loans with variable interest.
31
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
55
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
>J&<45&=>?<J>8;>:&=56X5A&;7&'>S5GB5?&122df&<45?56J<5?&<45& Chart 2-40
=?>J;<:&?568;:5A&B9&<45&B67X;7F&:9:<5G&@5?5&4;F45?&<467&<45&
Government securities market exposure of the
8>::5:& 6CCHGH86<5A& AH?;7F& <45& <H?G>;8& >7& <45& F>S5?7G57<& domestic credit institution sector and effect of
:5CH?;<;5:&G6?X5<&;7&<45&:=?;7F&>J&122dD&<45&C?;:;:&;7&$C<>B5?& yields on profit
122d&67A&<45&?;:5&;7&9;58A:&;7&<45&:=?;7F&>J&122aN&
;4)*$%.2."1-+19*"6$%1.*$5*9$#)&16)1.
eD222
2)0%&+.+)2*".*.4)*N%19"&+"1*'"17+19
#5?&C57<
.7&RV(
e2
1D222
12
3Dj22
3j
3D222
32
j22
j
2
2
T67N&2a
TH89&2d
T67N&2d
$C<N&2a
1j
TH89&2a
g2
1Dj22
*=?N&2a
gD222
$C<N&2d
gj
*=?N&2d
gDj22
%?56:H?9&B;88
Q>S5?7G57<&B>7A
%45&:46?5&>J&B67X:&;7&<45&>H<:<67A;7F
6G>H7<&>J&B;88:&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
%45&:46?5&>J&B67X:&;7&<45&>H<:<67A;7F
6G>H7<&>J&B>7A:&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
d2
$C<N&2a
*=?N&2a
T67N&2a
$C<N&2d
TH89&2d
gb956?
TH89&2a
;4)*/+)(-*$1*9$#)&16)1.*2)0%&+.+)2
#5?&C57<
*=?N&2d
3j
3e
3g
31
33
32
a
d
o
^
T67N&2d
O1*)?04"19)*&".)*24$07*"1-*"1*)?.&)6)*+1.)&)2.*&".)*
24$07* -$* 1$.* 4"#)* 2+91+5+0"1.* +63"0.* $1* .4)* 0"3+."(*
3$2+.+$1*$5*.4)*'"17+19*2/2.)6*.4&$%94*.4)*)?3$2%&)*
.$* 6"&7).* &+272:& *7& 5_C467F5& ?6<5& :4>CX& n3j& =5?& C57<&
A5=?5C;6<;>7& >J& <45& J>?;7<& 5_C467F5& ?6<5p& 46:& 6& =>:;<;S5&
;G=6C<&>7&<45&=?>J;<6B;8;<9&>J&<45&A>G5:<;C&B67X;7F&:9:<5GN&
+5<5?;:& =6?;BH:D& ;7& <45& C6:5& >J& B67X:& @;<4& 8>7F& <><68& (i&
=>:;<;>7D&;<&G;F4<&;7C?56:5&<45&=?>J;<&B9&1NjbgNj&=5?&C57<&>J&
<45;?&>@7&JH7A:D&67A&;7&<45&C6:5&>J&B67X:&@;<4&:4>?<&<><68&
(i& =>:;<;>7D& ;<& G;F4<& A5C?56:5& <45& =?>J;<& B9& 2Ngb2N^& =5?&
C57< ggN&%45&J>?G5?&F?>H=&>J&B67X:&?5=?5:57<:&6&4;F45?&:46?5&
;7&<45&>@7&JH7A:&>J&<45&@4>85&B67X;7F&:9:<5GN&*7&5_<?5G5&
;7<5?5:<& ?6<5& :4>CXD& ;N5N& 6& =6?68858& H=@6?A& :4;J<& nj22& B6:;:&
=>;7<:& ;7& C6:5& >J& J>?;7<D& 122& B6:;:& =>;7<:& ;7& C6:5& >J& -@;::&
J?67CD& 5H?>& 67A& A>886?p& >J& <45& 9;58A& CH?S5& ?5:H8<:& ;7&
G6_;GHG&^bo&=5?&C57<&8>::5:&6:&6&=5?C57<6F5&>J&>@7&JH7A:&
;7&<45&C6:5&>J&<45&J>?;7<D&@4;85&2Njb1&=5?&C57<&=?>J;<&;7&<45&
C6:5& >J& ><45?& CH??57C;5:& n-55& E6C?>=?HA57<;68& ;7A;C6<>?:D&
+46?<&e2&67A&+46?<&e1pN&*CC>?A;7F89D&<45&B67X;7F&:9:<5G&;:&
:57:;<;S5& <>& <45& F>S5?7G57<& B>7A& G6?X5<& A5S58>=G57<D&
G6?X5<& A;:<H?B67C5:& C67& C6H:5& :;F7;J;C67<& ;G=6C<& >7&
=?>J;<6B;8;<9D& BH<& ;<& @>H8A& 7><& 57A67F5?& B67X;7F& :5C<>?]:&
:>8S57C9&=>:;<;>7N ge
jb956?
32b956?
M63"0.*$1*)"&1+192
CG%6%(".)-*2+10)*PQQ\*c"1%"&/F
.7&RV(
^2
e2
12
2
m12
$C<N&2a
TH89&2a
*=?N&2a
T67N&2a
$C<N&2d
TH89&2d
*=?N&2d
md2
T67N&2d
me2
m^2
"6?7;7F:&>7&:5CH?;<;5:&=H?C46:5A&J>?&<?6A;7F
"6?7;7F:&>7&458A&<>&G6<H?;<9&:5CH?;<;5:
G726%,W';<>1'd]]9
33
34
56
Naturally exchange rate depreciation can deteriorate the overall profitability of banking sector via credit risks.
The exchange rate shocks applied in the partial market risk stress tests are in line with the shock scenario of the credit risk stress test, while interest rate shock
is higher than in credit risk stress test.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
2.5. High profitability, strong capital position
12
3j
32
j
2
mj
m32
m3j
m12
m1j
+W&&n2a&qgp
.Q&n2a&qep
RV&n2a&qep
""&n2a&q3p
#,&&n2a&qgp
-M&n2a&qgp
!$&n2a&qgp
,%&n2a&q3p
,h&n2a&q1p
I#'JKKL1').,'*$#5"#4'(,%)76'867/")'"#%6,$(,3'(&"4.)&+'%708$6,3' Chart 2-41
)7'JKKk1'#7)-").()$#3"#4').,'467-"#4'A7&20,'7/'867A"("7#(1' Profitability position of the domestic banking
8$6)"%2&$6&+'$('$'6,(2&)'7/').,'),0876$6+'"#%6,$(,'7/'#,)'867/")' sector in regional comparison
7#'/"#$#%"$&'78,6$)"7#(1'$#3')7'$'&,((,6',M),#)1').,'6"(,'"#'#,)'
>LO
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
"#),6,()' "#%70,9' :.,' 6"(,' "#' #,)' "#),6,()' "#%70,' 0$+' *,' 3Nj
$))6"*2),3')7').,'/$%)').$)'*$#5('-,6,'$*&,')7'8$(('7#'(70,'7/' 3
).,' 467-"#4' 6"(5' 86,0"$' )7' ,M"()"#4' %2()70,6(9' >,."#3' ).,' 2Nj
."4.'867/")$*"&")+').,6,'"('("4#"/"%$#)'$(+00,)6+h').,'0$65,)'
2
(.$6,'7/'*$#5('-").'&7-,6'867/")('"#%6,$(,39':.,'%266,#)'&,A,&'
m2Nj
7/' 867/")$*"&")+' -"&&' *,' 3"//"%2&)' )7' 0$"#)$"#' "#' JK^K1' $('
867A"("7#"#4' 0$+' 6,0$"#' ."4.1' -."&,' ).,' #,)' 867/")' 7#' m3
/"#$#%"$&' 78,6$)"7#(' 0$+' 3,%&"#,' ("4#"/"%$#)&+9' I#' JK^K1' ).,' m3Nj
*$#5"#4' (,%)76' -"&&' *,' $*&,' )7' (2()$"#' 867/")$*"&")+' 7#&+' *+' m1
"#%6,$("#4' #,)' "#),6,()' "#%70,9' :.,+' %$#' "#%6,$(,' ).,"6' #,)'
"#),6,()' "#%70,' A"$' &,#3"#4' 076,' )7' #,-' 4773EO2$&")+'
%2()70,6(1' -"3,#"#4' ).,' "#),6,()' 0$64"#' /76' ,M"()"#4'
%2()70,6(1' -."&,' ,M8,#3")26,(' %$#' *,' 6,32%,3' -").' %2)(' "#'
>L<
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
%7()9':.,'%$8")$&'$3,O2$%+'7/').,'*$#5"#4'(,%)76'"('($)"(/$%)76+1'
g2
$#3'"('."4.',A,#'"#'"#),6#$)"7#$&'%708$6"(7#9'
1j
3Nj
3
2Nj
2
m2Nj
m3
m3Nj
m1
g2
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
mj
m32
m3j
m12
m1j
+W&&n2a&qgp
.Q&n2a&qep
RV&n2a&qep
""&n2a&q3p
#,&&n2a&qgp
-M&n2a&qgp
!$&n2a&qgp
,%&n2a&q1p
,h&n2a&q3
M1* PQQR8* .4)* -$6)2.+0* '"17+19* 2)0.$&* B"2* "'()* .$*
"'2$&'*.4)*2%'2."1.+"((/*9&$B+19*($"1*($22)2:&)7&122aD&
<45& B67X;7F& :5C<>?& ?568;:5A& 6& =?5b<6_& =?>J;<& >J& RV(& g2^&
B;88;>7D& H=& ?>HF489& j& =5?& C57<& >7& <45& ?5:H8<& >J& RV(& 1a2&
B;88;>7& J>?& 122dN& %4;:& J;FH?5& :;F7;J;C67<89& 5_C55A:& <45&
6G>H7<&>J&RV(&322b122&B;88;>7&J>?5C6:<5A&;7&<45&=?5S;>H:&
!5=>?< gjD& =?;G6?;89& 6:& 6& ?5:H8<& >J& <45& 5_C5=<;>768& 56?7;7F:&
?586<5A&<>&J;767C;68&>=5?6<;>7:N&%45&=?5b<6_&3&=5?&C57<&!$*&
n?5<H?7& >7& 6::5<:p& 67A& 3g& =5?& C57<& !$"& n?5<H?7& >7& 5`H;<9p&
;7A;C6<>?:&6?5&:;G;86?&<>&<46<&>J&122dD&67A&6?5&C>7:;A5?5A&6:&
6& F>>A& =5?J>?G67C5& ;7& ;7<5?76<;>768& C>G=6?;:>7& n+46?<& <7),W' _eW' _$)A"$1' _:W' _").2$#"$1' HYW' H70$#"$1' G]W' G&7A$5"$1' T_W'
1be3pN
T7&$#31'RRW'R()7#"$1'FDW'F2#4$6+1'>SW'>2&4$6"$1'BiW'B=,%.'H,82*&"%9
G726%,W'<$)"7#$&'%,#)6$&'*$#5(1';<>9'
;4)* )?.&"$&-+1"&/* 3&$5+."'+(+./* +2* 04"&"0.)&+2)-* '/*
"2/66).&+0* -+2.&+'%.+$1* +1* .4)* '"17+19* 2)0.$&:& %45&
=?>J;<6B;8;<9& >J& G>:<& B67X:& @>?:575AD& @4;85& :>G5& G6O>?&
B67X:&67A&:HB:;A;6?;5:&6C4;5S5A&6B>S5b6S5?6F5&=?>J;<:N&*:&6&
?5:H8<D&<45&6S5?6F5&85S58&>J&!$"&?5G6;7:&B6:;C6889&H7C467F5A&
C>G=6?5A&<>&122dD&BH<&;<&@6:&6CC>G=67;5A&B9&6&:;F7;J;C67<&
?;:5& ;7& :<67A6?A& A5S;6<;>7& 6G>7F& B67X:N& %45& :46?5& >J&
H7=?>J;<6B85& B67X:& 67A& B67X:& @;<4& 8>@& =?>J;<6B;8;<9&
@5;F4<5A&B9&B6867C5&:455<&<><68:&;7C?56:5Af&457C5&;7&C6:5&>J&
:>G5&6B>S5&6S5?6F5&=5?J>?G5?&B67X:&>J&122d&<45&=?>J;<&68:>&
A5C8;75A&n+46?<&1be1pN&%45?5J>?5&>789&J5@&B67X:&6?5&6B85&<>&
;7<5?76889&6CCHGH86<5&C6=;<68D&;N5N&;7C?56:5&C6=;<68&6A5`H6C9&
J?>G&=?>J;<N
35
M10&)"2+19* 3&$#+2+$1+19* B"2* $552).* '/* 3&$5+.2* $1*
5+1"10+"(* $3)&".+$12:& E6O>?& ?5:<?HC<H?;7F& <>>X& =86C5& ;7&
<45& :<?HC<H?5& >J& <45& =?>J;<& 67A& 8>::& 6CC>H7<& ;7& 122ak& 75<&
;7<5?5:<& ;7C>G5& F?5@& B9& 3^& =5?& C57<& >7& <45& ?5S57H5& :;A5D&
75<& =?>J;<& >7& J;767C;68& >=5?6<;>7:& A>HB85AD& @4;85& 75<&
C>GG;::;>7& ;7C>G5& ?5G6;75A& H7C467F5AN& %45&
5_<?6>?A;76?9& 75<& =?>J;<& >7& J;767C;68& >=5?6<;>7:& @6:&
G6;789& <45& ?5:H8<& >J& <?6A;7F& =?>J;<& >7& :5CH?;<;5:& 6S6;86B85&
J>?& :685& 67A& 458A& <>& G6<H?;<9N& $=5?6<;7F& 5_=57:5:& @5?5&
:8;F4<89& B58>@& <45& S68H5:& ?5C>?A5A& J>?& 122dD& 67A& <4H:&
B67X:&@5?5&6B85&<>&CH<&<45;?&C>:<:N&,>67&8>::&=?>S;:;>7;7F&
Report on Financial Stability, April 2009, section 2.1.4.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
57
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
Chart 2-42
Chart 2-44
ROE indicator of the banking sector, standard
deviation and dispersion by total assets
Changes in the net interest margin
3j
32
32
j
j
1Nj
32D222
ej
e2
gj
g2
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
122^
122o
122d
122a
31bG>7<4&6S5?6F5&;7<5?5:<&B56?;7F&6::5<:
31bG>7<4&6S5?6F5&;7<5?5:<&B56?;7F&6::5<:&;7C8N&>789&
<?67:6C<;>7&;7C?56:5&;7&122a
'5<&;7<5?5:<&G6?F;7&n'5<&;7<5?5:<&;7C>G5l31bG>7<4&
6S5?6F5&;7<5?5:<&B56?;7F&6::5<:D&?;F4<b467A&:C685p
<7),W' HYR' X^JE07#).' 67&&"#4' 86,E)$M' 867/")a' X^JE07#).' $A,6$4,'
(.$6,.7&3,6(?',O2")+'Q'867/")'76'&7(('/76').,'/"#$#%"$&'+,$6ZZ9
I"
I5CN&2a
1N2
T).*+1.)&)2.*6"&9+1*+1*+1.)&1".+$1"(*0$63"&+2$1
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
eNj
eNj
R>G5&C>H7<?;5:
R>:<&C>H7<?;5:
eN2
eN2
gNj
gNj
gN2
gN2
1Nj
1Nj
1N2
1N2
3Nj
3Nj
3N2
3N2
2Nj
2Nj
2N2
2N2
|j2r
e2bejr
gjbe2r
#5?&C57<
)%
I5CN&2d
12bgjr
1jbg2r
12b1jr
3jb12r
32b3jr
jb32r
bjb2r
b32bjr
b3jb32r
2bjr
;4)*-+23)&2+$1*$5*>L<*
CB)+94.)-*'/*.$."(*"22).2F
#5?&C57<
{b3jr
ej
e2
gj
g2
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
3jD222
-<67A6?A&A5S;6<;>7&>J&!$"
ejbj2r
!$"
gN2
-)
3j
12D222
-M
12
gNj
+W
12
1jD222
RV&n122apu
1j
eN2
RV&n122ap
g2
1j
eNj
g2D222
#,
gj
g2
T67N&2^
E6?N&2^
E69&2^
TH89&2^
-5=N&2^
'>SN&2^
T67N&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH89&2o
-5=N&2o
'>SN&2o
T67N&2d
E6?N&2d
E69&2d
TH89&2d
-5=N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
E6?N&2a
E69&2a
TH89&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
gj
gjD222
.Q
e2
!$
#5?&C57<
."
#5?&C57<
M1.)&)2.*')"&+19*"22).2*"1-*1).*+1.)&)2.*6"&9+1
#5?&C57<
.7&RV(
*%
e2
>L<*"1-*+.2*2."1-"&-*-)#+".+$1
'5<&;7<5?5:<&;7C>G5&l&<><68&6::5<:&n57A&>J&956?p
u'5<&;7<5?5:<&;7C>G5&l&677H68&6S5?6F5&>J&;7<5?5:<&B56?;7F
6::5<:
<7),W'I:W'I)$&+1'C:W'C2()6"$1'>RW'>,&4"201'NRW'S,60$#+1'_eW'_$)A"$1'_:W'
_").2$#"$1'HYW'H70$#"$1'G]W'G&7A$5"$1'T_W'T7&$#31'RRW'R()7#"$1'FDW'
F2#4$6+1'>SW'>2&4$6"$1'BiW'B=,%.'H,82*&"%9
G726%,W';<>9
Chart 2-43
G726%,W';<>1'RB>'RD'>$#5"#4'G,%)76'G)$*"&")+'XC242()'JKKLZ9
Major income statement items of the banking sector
3Dj22
.7&RV(
.7&RV(
3D222
3D222
j22
j22
2
2
mj22
mj22
m3D222
m3D222
m3Dj22
I5CN&2^
I5CN&2o
I;S;A57A:
'5<&C>GG;::;>7&67A&
J55&;7C>G5
$<45?&75<&;7C>G5
$=5?6<;7F&5_=57:5
I5CN&2d
I5CN&2a
'5<&=?>J;<&>7&J;767C;68&
>=5?6<;>7:
'5<&;7<5?5:<&;7C>G5
,>67&8>::&=?>S;:;>7
#?>J;<&B5J>?5&<6_
G726%,W';<>9
58
3Dj22
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
m3Dj22
?>:5& A976G;C6889N& %45& 5_C5=<;>76889& 4;F4& 6G>H7<:& >J&
A;S;A57A&;7C>G5&67A&><45?&5_=57A;<H?5&;<5G:&6?5&F575?6889&
8;7X5A&<>&>75b>JJ&<?67:6C<;>7:&n+46?<&1begpN
;4)* &+2)* +1* 1).* +1.)&)2.* +10$6)* B"2* 0"%2)-* '/* .4)*
+10&)"2)* +1* +1.)&)2.* ')"&+19* "22).28* B4+()* .4)* 1).*
+1.)&)2.*6"&9+1*&)6"+1)-*%104"19)-:&%45&75<&;7<5?5:<&
G6?F;7& @6:& 1Na& =5?& C57<& 6<& <45& 57A& >J& 122aD& B6:;C6889&
C>??5:=>7A;7F& <>& <45& J;FH?5& J>?& <45& =?5S;>H:& 956?& n+46?<&
1beepN& %45& A>G5:<;C& 75<& ;7<5?5:<& G6?F;7& C>7<;7H5:& <>&
:;F7;J;C67<89& 5_C55A& <45& G6?F;7:& 6==8;5A& ;7& =6?57<& B67X:]&
C>H7<?;5:D&67A&?67X5A&6S5?6F5&;7&C>G=6?;:>7&<>&C>H7<?;5:&;7&
<45& ?5F;>7N& %45& S>8HG5& >J& ;7<5?5:<& B56?;7F& 6::5<:& ;7& <45&
!)-M-&$(&%R"&()'*'+)*,&)'%"!E"I)*!/&-/-%"E
A>G5:<;C& B67X;7F& :5C<>?& ;7C?56:5AD& F575?6889& AH5& <>& <4?55& Chart 2-45
J6C<>?:N&*==?>_;G6<589&468J&>J&<45&?;:5&C>G=6?5A&<>&122d&;:& Pre-tax profit of financial enterprises
<45&?5:H8<&>J&<45&@56X5?&J>?;7<&5_C467F5&?6<5&;7&122ag^f&<45& XJKKkQJKKLZ
><45?&468J&;:&8;7X5A&<>&:HB:<;<H<;>7&5JJ5C<:k&68<4>HF4&<45&8>67&
;$."(*2)0.$&
.7&RV(
j2
=>?<J>8;>& A5C?56:5AD& F?>@;7F& 8;`H;A;<9& ?5:H8<5A& ;7& 6& ?;:5& ;7&
ej
F>S5?7G57<& A5B<& :5CH?;<;5:& <>& 6& 85::5?& 5_<57<D& 67A& ;7& <45&
e2
C57<?68&B67X&:5CH?;<;5:&=>?<J>8;>&<>&6&F?56<5?&5_<57<N&)7&S;5@&
gj
>J& <45& J6C<& <46<& <45& ;7<5?5:<& ?6<5& 85S58:& >J& F>S5?7G57<& g2
1j
:5CH?;<;5:&67A&C57<?68&B67X&:5CH?;<;5:&6?5&8>@5?&<467&<46<&>J&
12
8>67:&67A&B67X:&C>H8A&7><&56?7&;7<5?5:<&;7C>G5&>7&;7C?56:;7F&
3j
7>7b=5?J>?G;7F& 8>67:D& @5& C67& 6::HG5& <46<& <45& ;7<5?5:<&
32
j
G6?F;7& >J& =5?J>?G;7F& 8>67:& ?>:5N& %4;:& G69& G567& <46<& <45&
2
B67X:&=6::5A&>7&:>G5&>J&<45;?&?;:;7F&?;:X&=?5G;6&<>&5_;:<;7F&
mj
CH:<>G5?:N&
m32
m3j
;4)*3&)E."?*3&$5+.*$5*5+1"10+"(*)1.)&3&+2)2*-).)&+$&".)-*
2+91+5+0"1.(/:* %45& =?>J;<:& >J& B67Xb>@75A& 67A& 7>7bB67X&
>@75A& J;767C;68& 57<5?=?;:5:& @5?5& 75F6<;S5D& <45& :5C<>?& 6:& 6&
@4>85& 6CCHGH86<5A& =?5b<6_& =?>J;<& 6G>H7<5A& <>& RV(& 33&
B;88;>7& n+46?<& 1bejpN& '56?89& 468J& >J& B67Xb>@75A& J;767C;68&
57<5?=?;:5:&@5?5&H7=?>J;<6B85&6<&<45&57A&>J&122af&6<&:>G5&>J&
<45:5D& <45& :46?54>8A5?& B67X:& @5?5& J>?C5A& <>& ?5C6=;<68;:5&
<45GN
j2
ej
e2
gj
g2
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
mj
m32
m3j
q3
qg
qe
U+.4*'"17*$B1)&24+3
.7&RV(
M1*PQWQ8*.4)*3&$5+.*$5*.4)*'"17+19*2)0.$&*6"/*')*($B*"2*
"* &)2%(.* $5* -+2"33)"&+19* $1)E$55* 3&$5+.* +.)62* "1-* .4)*
0$1.+1%+19* 4+94* &".)* $5* 3&$#+2+$1+19:* c5& C>7:;A5?& <45&
q3
4;F4&75<&=?>J;<&>7&J;767C;68&>=5?6<;>7:&<>&B5&6&>75b>JJ&J6C<>?D&
67A&<4H:&;<&@;88&B5&G>?5&A;JJ;CH8<&J>?&<45&B67X:&<>&>JJ:5<&<45&
:<;88& 4;F4& ?6<5& >J& 8>67& 8>::& =?>S;:;>7;7F& ;7& 1232N&& j2 .7&RV(
*&J688&;7&=?>J;<6B;8;<9&;:&5_=5C<5AD&BH<&<4;:&?H7:&C>7<?6?9&<>&<45& ej
5_=5C<6<;>7:&>J&B67X:&<45G:58S5:&n.>_&1bepN&*&=>::;B85&?;:5&;7& e2
gj
857A;7F& 6C<;S;<9& ?5:H8<;7F& J?>G& >@75?:]& 5_=5C<6<;>7:& G69& g2
;G=?>S5&=?>J;<6B;8;<9N&%45&?;:5&;7&?5S57H5:D&4>@5S5?D&G69&B5& 1j
8;G;<5A&B9&<45&76??>@&?67F5&>J&F>>A&`H68;<9&B>??>@5?:N&%45& 12
3j
B67X;7F& :5C<>?& C>H8A& 6C4;5S5& 6& 4;F45?& S>8HG5& >J& 75@& 32
j
>?;F;76<;>7:& B9& 857A;7F& <>& CH:<>G5?:& >J& =>>?5?& `H68;<9D& BH<&
2
<4;:&@>H8A&856A&<>&A5<5?;>?6<;7F&`H68;<9&>J&<45&=>?<J>8;>N&%45&
mj
B67X:& C>H8A& ?6;:5& <45& G6?F;7:& >J& 5_;:<;7F& CH:<>G5?:D& BH<& m32
;7C?56:5&;7&857A;7F&C>:<:&G69&?5:H8<&;7&JH?<45?&A5<5?;>?6<;>7& m3j
q3
;7& <45& 8>67& =>?<J>8;>N& !6<;>768;:6<;>7& >J& >=5?6<;7F& 5_=57:5:&
122d
C>H8A&B5&6&<4;?A&>=<;>7D&BH<&@5&5:<;G6<5&<46<&<4;:&C>H8A&>789&
C>G=57:6<5&8>67&8>::5:&<>&6&8;G;<5A&5_<57<N&
G726%,W';<>9
36
q1
q1
qg
qe
U+.4$%.*'"17*$B1)&24+3
q1
qg
qe
122a
Since net interest income is expressed in forint, in the event of a weaker forint exchange rate and net foreign currency assets, net interest income expressed in
forint also increases.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
59
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
Box 2-4: Business expectations of domestic banks in 2010
In the framework of the practice of Market Intelligence conducted
The surveyed banks expect slow growth in the balance sheet total, a
since 2008, in February and March the MNB surveyed the 7 largest
moderate rise in lending to households and non-financial enterprises
domestic commercial banks and two branches of foreign banks active
and further tightening on lending to financial enterprises. On the
on the financial markets to know the key cornerstones of their
deposit side, the banks expect the increase in corporate and financial
business plans relating to 2010 and their expectations. Business
enterprise deposits (partly managed by investment funds) to be
planning is still overshadowed by a high degree of uncertainty, but
greater than in the previous year. However, market participants expect
growth and profit targets are already emerging due to the
a slowdown in the rise of household deposits. On the whole, a further
strengthened liquidity and solvency positions.
decline in the loan-to-deposit ratio is expected. With regard to
Table 2-3
Target figures of banks for 2010
Mutatószámok
End of 2009 value
Target interval for end
of 2010
2.2%
0.9%
0.1%
0.9%
I. Balance sheet developments
1. Increase of balance sheet total (y-o-y growth in per cent)
2. Growth targets for credits (y-o-y growth in per cent):
a. Households
b. Non financial corporations
c. Financial corporations
–7.1%
6.4%
–20.1%
–8.3%
3. Growth targets for deposit taking (y-o-y growth in per cent):
a. Households
6.0%
3.5%
–1.7%
6.3%
c. Financial corporations
4. Loan-to-deposit ratio (change in percentage point)
–18.1%
4.8%
–17 percentage points
–1,8 percentage points
II. Portfolio quality
1. Ratio of non-performing loans to total loans (per cent)
a. Households
7.2%
8.7%
10.1%
10.5%
c. Loans total
6.2%
7.4%
a. Households
2.5%
2.6%
2.5%
2.1%
c. Loans total
1.6%
1.6%
2. Newly allocated provisioning (as percentage of outstanding loan amount)
III. Profit
Profit before tax (HUF billion)
306 bn HUF
334 bn HUF
ROA (%) (before tax)
0.97%
1.1%
ROE (%) (before tax)
13.0%
12.5%
IV. Capital position
Growth in Risk Weighted Assets total (y-o-y change, in per cents)
–6.8%
1.5%
Capital adequacy ratio
12.9%
13.5%
<7),W'I#3"A"32$&'8&$#('-,"4.),3'*+'*$&$#%,'(.,,)')7)$&9':.,'/$%)'$#3'/76,%$()'3$)$'6,&$),')7').,',#3'7/').,'+,$69'
'G726%,W';<>?(';$65,)'I#),&&"4,#%,'(26A,+9
60
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
!)-M-&$(&%R"&()'*'+)*,&)'%"!E"I)*!/&-/-%"E
more than 90 days for households’ and non-financial corporations’
portfolio as well, but a slowdown in the pace of deterioration is
Chart 2-46
Results of Market Intelligence survey on risks
characterising the year 2010
expected by the banks. The need for new provisioning in connection
eN2
with lending to non-financial enterprises may be lower. According to
levels, due to further portfolio deterioration expected in relation to
loans to households and financial enterprises. The market players plan
a return to normal operations and in parallel target maintaining
profitability at unchanged levels (Table 2-3).
We surveyed what the given institutions regard as key risks from the
point of view of the domestic banking sector and their own bank. The
results suggest that the highest risks are economic recession, an
unfavourable change in the HUF exchange rate and the deterioration
in debt servicing inclination of customers (Chart 2-46). The rising
country risk of Hungary, mounting market volatility, the fall in asset
prices and the possible decline in depositor confidence are smaller,
but nevertheless substantial risk factors.
M59&?;:X:&6JJ5C<;7F&<45&?5:=>7A;7F&B67X
banks’ plans, provisioning for total loans may remain at end-2009
,5::&:;F7;J;C67<&?;:X&&&m&&&&-;F7;J;C67<&?;:X
"C>7>G;C&?5C5::;>7
V7J6S>H?6B85&C467F5&;7
RV(&5_C467F5&?6<5
gNj
gN2
1Nj
I5<5?;>?6<;>7&;7&A5B<
:5?S;C;7F&;7C8;76<;>7&>J
CH:<>G5?:
1N2
3Nj
3N2
(688&;7&6::5<&=?;C5:
)7C?56:5&;7&A>G5:<;C
C>H7<?9&?;:X
E6?X5<&<H?BH857C5:D&?;:5&;7&S>86<;8;<9
2Nj
2N2
2N2
I5C?56:5&;7&A5=>:;<>?:]&C>7J;A57C5
,5::&:;F7;J;C67<&?;:X&&&m&&&&-;F7;J;C67<&?;:X
portfolio quality, in 2010 they expect a rise in the ratio of loans overdue
2Nj 3N2 3Nj 1N2 1Nj gN2 gNj eN2
M59&?;:X:&6JJ5C<;7F&<45&A>G5:<;C&B67X;7F&:5C<>?
<7),W':.,'*$#5('-,6,'6,O2"6,3')7'(,&,%)'$#3'6$#5').,')78'['6"(5('"#'
).,"6'6,(87#(,(9'CA,6$4,'A$&2,('-,"4.),3'*+'*$&$#%,'(.,,)')7)$&9'
G726%,W';<>';$65,)'I#),&&"4,#%,'(26A,+9
Table 2-4
Results of Market Intelligence survey on risks characterising the year 2010
Az egyes kockázati tényezők említésének aránya relatív piaci részesedéssel súlyozva
Key risks affecting
the domestic banking
sector
Key risks affecting
the responding
bank
Economic recession
92
92
Fall in asset prices
28
57
Unfavourable change in HUF exchange rate
87
87
Deterioration in the repayment inclination of customers
99
100
External and internal capital accumulation constrains
12
12
Drying-up of external liabilities
16
1
Change in parent bank's behaviour
1
12
Swap market turbulences
1
1
Change in the potential instruments of domestic monetary policy
0
0
Decrease in depositors' confidence
8
7
Market turbulences, rise in volatility
44
33
Increase in domestic country risk
53
53
Change in the potential instruments of eurozone members' fiscal policy and ECB
("exit strategies")
26
11
Contagion risks within the Eastern-central European region
11
13
Unemployment
11
11
Uncertainties in the economic policy
10
10
<7),W':.,'*$#5('-,6,'6,O2"6,3')7'(,&,%)'$#3'6$#5').,')78'['6"(5('"#').,"6'6,(87#(,(9'CA,6$4,'A$&2,('-,"4.),3'*+'*$&$#%,'(.,,)')7)$&9'
G726%,W';<>';$65,)'I#),&&"4,#%,'(26A,+9
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
61
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
Chart 2-47
Chart 2-48
Capital adequacy ratio of the banking sector in
2008-2009 and decomposition of its change
Capital adequacy of the banking sector
jNj
33N2
gNj
32Nj
3Nj
32N2
1Nj
I5CN&2d
I5CN&2a
m2Nj
;4)*0$63$2$.+$1*$5*.4)*04"19)*+1*.4)*GO>
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
1Nj
1N2
1N2
3Nj
3Nj
3N2
3N2
2Nj
2Nj
2N2
2N2
m2Nj
m2Nj
m3N2
)7C?56:5&;7&=?>J;<&?5:5?S5:&n;7C8N&G;A956?&6HA;<5A&=?>J;<p
)7C?56:5&;7&:46?54>8A5?:]&5`H;<9
I5C?56:5&;7&!c*
$<45?:
)7C?56:5&n122am122dp
m3N2
G726%,W';<>9
;4)*0"3+."(*3$2+.+$1*$5*'"172bd*+2*"-),%".)8*.4)*0"3+."(*
"-),%"0/*&".+$b\*&$2)*'/*W:e*3)&*0)1.*.$*WP:R*3)&*0)1.*
'/* .4)* )1-* $5* PQQR:* *& A5C8;75& ;7& ?;:X& @5;F4<5A& 6::5<:&
n!c*p&C>7<?;BH<5A&B9&3&=5?C57<6F5&=>;7<D&<45&?5;7S5:<G57<&
>J& =?>J;<& B9& 2Nd& =5?C57<6F5& =>;7<:& 67A& <45& C6=;<68& ?6;:5& B9&
=6?57<& B67X:& B9& 6& <><68& >J& 2Ng& =5?C57<6F5& =>;7<:& <>& <4;:&
;7C?56:5N&$<45?&5JJ5C<:&?5AHC5A&<45&C6=;<68&6A5`H6C9&?6<;>&B9&
756?89&>75&468J&>J&6&=5?C57<6F5&=>;7<&n+46?<&1beopN&%45&%;5?&
3&C6=;<68&6A5`H6C9&?6<;>&>J&<45&B67X;7F&:5C<>?&6==?>6C45A&
33&=5?&C57<&B9&<45&57A&>J&122aN&)7&1232&@5&5_=5C<&6&JH?<45?&
?;:5& ;7& <45& C6=;<68& 6A5`H6C9& ?6<;>D& G>S;7F& C8>:5& <>& 3e& =5?&
C57<D&;7&=6?68858&@;<4&6&A5C8;75&;7&<45&8>67&=>?<J>8;>&>J&<45&
=?;S6<5&:5C<>?N
37
38
62
322
a2
d2
o2
^2
j2
e2
g2
12
32
2
+*!&;7&<45&B67X;7F&:5C<>?
.67X:&46S;7F&db32r&+*!&6:&6&=5?C57<6F5&>J&<><68&6::5<:
n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
3d
3o
3^
3j
3e
3g
31
33
32
a
d
GO>*+1*&)9+$1"(*0$63"&+2$1
#5?&C57<
.Q&n2a&qgp
33Nj
#5?&C57<
""&n2a&qgp
oNj
,%&n2a&q1p
31N2
+W&&n2a&qep
aNj
!$&n2a&q3p
31Nj
#,&&n2a&qgp
33Nj
G"3+."(*"-),%"0/*&".+$*CGO>F
RV&n2a&qep
3gN2
,h&n2a&q3p
3gNj
#5?&C57<
T67N&2^
E6?N&2^
E69&2^
TH89&2^
-5=N&2^
'>SN&2^
T67N&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH89&2o
-5=N&2o
'>SN&2o
T67N&2d
E6?N&2d
E69&2d
TH89&2d
-5=N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
E6?N&2a
E69&2a
TH89&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
#5?&C57<
3eN2
3gNj
3gN2
31Nj
31N2
33Nj
33N2
32Nj
32N2
aNj
aN2
-M&n2a&qep
3gNj
#5?&C57<
G"3+."(*"-),%"0/*&".+$*CGO>F
<7),W' _eW' _$)A"$1' _:W' _").2$#"$1' HYW' H70$#"$1' G]W' G&7A$5"$1' T_W'
T7&$#31'RRW'R()7#"$1'FDW'F2#4$6+1'>SW'>2&4$6"$1'BiW'B=,%.'H,82*&"%9
G726%,W';<>1'RB>'RD'>$#5"#4'G,%)76'G)$*"&")+'XC242()'JKKLZ9
;4)* 6"&7).* 24"&)* $5* '"172* B+.4* "* 0"3+."(* "-),%"0/*
&".+$* $5* \EWQ* 3)&* 0)1.* -&$33)-* 2+91+5+0"1.(/:& *:& 6&
J6S>H?6B85&=457>G576&6<&;7A;S;AH68&B67X&85S58D&<45&?6<;>&>J&
B67X:& @;<4& 6& C6=;<68& 6A5`H6C9& ?6<;>& >J& db32& =5?& C57<& J588&
J?>G& e2b^2& =5?& C57<& <>& 12& =5?& C57<& n+46?<& 1bedpN& )7& 6&
?5F;>768& C>G=6?;:>7D& <45& 6FF?5F6<5& C6=;<68& 6A5`H6C9& ?6<;>&
>J&<45&A>G5:<;C&B67X;7F&:5C<>?&;:&6<&6A5`H6<5&85S58N
Excluding branch offices of credit institutions.
Capital adequacy ratio (CAR) = (total own funds for solvency purposes/minimum capital requirement)*8%. By definition, only mid-year audited profit is included
in the own funds. The CAR by accounting for total profit or loss for the financial year is 13.4 per cent.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
2.6 Liquidity and credit risk stress tests show
adequate shock-absorbing capacity39
U)* 6)"2%&)* .4)* 24$&.E.)&6* (+,%+-+./* 3$2+.+$1* $5* .4)*
-$6)2.+0* '"17+19* 2)0.$&* $1* .4)* '"2+2* $5* "* bQE-"/*
5$&B"&-E($$7+19* .&)"2%&/* 9"3:& %45& g2bA69& CHGH86<5A&
<><68& <?56:H?9& F6=& :4>@:& 4>@& G6<H?;7F& >7bB6867C5& :455<&
67A& >JJbB6867C5& :455<& <?56:H?9& 6::5<:& 67A& 8;6B;8;<;5:& @>H8A&
6JJ5C<&<45&B67X]:&8;`H;A;<9&=>:;<;>7&>7&<45&@4>85&;7&<45&75_<&
g2& A69:& ;7& 6B:57C5& >J& <45& B67X]:& 6C<;S5& C6:4bJ8>@&
G676F5G57<N& .9& C>G=6?;7F& <45& 6B>S5& <>& <45& 85S58& >J&
8;`H;A;<9& ?5:5?S5:D& @5& ?5C5;S5& <45& 8;`H;A;<9& =>:;<;>7& <46<&
@>H8A&B5&6<&<45&F;S57&B67X]:&A;:=>:68&6<&<45&57A&>J&<45&g2<4&
A69&6:&6&=5?C57<6F5&>J&<45&B6867C5&:455<&<><68:&n+46?<&1beapN&
30-day liquidity position of the seven major banks
as a percentage of balance sheet totals
e2
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
e2
E;7;GHG
E6_;GHG
I5CN&2a
2
'>SN&2a
2
$C<N&2a
d
-5=N&2a
d
*HFN&2a
3^
TH89&2a
3^
TH75&2a
1e
E69&2a
1e
*=?N&2a
g1
E6?N&2a
g1
(5BN&2a
2.6.1 THE STRESSED LIQUIDITY
SURPLUS IS ADEQUATE AS A RESULT OF
BANKS’ ADJUSTMENT
Chart 2-49
T67N&2a
Y#').,'*$("('7/').,'&"O2"3")+'()6,(('),()1').,'&"O2"3")+'6,(,6A,('
7/' *$#5(' $6,' (2//"%",#)' /76' ).,' %70*"#,3' 7%%266,#%,' 7/'
)2607"&'7#').,'/"#$#%"$&'0$65,)(1'-").36$-$&'7/'3,87(")('$#3'
$#' ,M%.$#4,' 6$),' (.7%59' C' 3,%&"#,' "#' ).,' &7$#' &7((' 6$),(' "('
,M8,%),3' "#' ).,' 0$%67,%7#70"%' *$(,&"#,' (%,#$6"71' $#3' ).2('
).,'*$#5('87(("*&+'37'#7)'#,,3'$33")"7#$&'%$8")$&'"#@,%)"7#(9'
I#' ).,' ()6,((' (%,#$6"71' $' 8,6("(),#)' ,%7#70"%' 6,%,(("7#' 0$+'
6,(2&)' "#' 6"("#4' &7$#' &7((,(' -."%.' 0$+' #,%,((")$),' 073,6$),'
%$8")$&' "#@,%)"7#(' 7/' FD!' m[E[K' *"&&"7#9' P,' %7#("3,6' ).,'
$33")"7#$&' %$8")$&' #,,3' "#' ).,' ,M)6,0,' (%,#$6"7' &7-' $#3'
0$#$4,$*&,9
*S5?6F5&>J&o&G6O>?&B67X:
<7),W' _"O2"3")+' 87(")"7#W' ).,' VK' 3$+' )7)$&' %202&$),3' 4$8' X3"//,6,#%,'
*,)-,,#' "#/&7-"#4' $#3' 72)/&7-"#4' "),0(Z' g' &"O2"3")+' 6,(,6A,' $A$"&$*&,'
VK'3$+('&$),69':7)$&'%202&$),3'4$8W')6,$(26+'/"#$#%"#4'3,/"%")'76'(268&2('
%$&%2&$),3' 7#' ).,' *$("(' 7/' ).,' ()$)"%' 0$)26")+' %$(.E/&7-9' CA$"&$*&,'
&"O2"3")+'6,(,6A,W'!b'#7()67'$%%72#)'g'3"(87($*&,';<>E,&"4"*&,'(,%26")",('
g' 2#36$-#' ()$#3E*+' %6,3")' /$%"&")",(' g' X(,))&,0,#)' $%%72#)' %266,#)'
*$&$#%,' Q' $A,6$4,' (,))&,0,#)' $%%72#)' .7&3"#4' 6,O2"6,0,#)' 326"#4'
0$"#),#$#%,'8,6"73Z9
G726%,W';<>9
*&8;`H;A;<9&=>:;<;>7&C8>:5&<>&[5?>&;7A;C6<5:&8;`H;A;<9&A;:<?5::f&
=5?:;:<57<& 8;`H;A;<9& A;:<?5::& G69& C>7<?;BH<5& <>& :<?>7F5?&
A585S5?6F;7FN
Table 2-5
Main parameters of the liquidity stress test
Assets
Item
Degree
Liabilities
Degree
Currency effect
HUF
Withdrawals in
household deposits
10%
HUF/FX
15%
HUF
Withdrawals in
corporate deposits
15%
HUF/FX
10%
HUF
Standby credit
cancellation
100%
HUF
Default at HUF
interbank assets
20%
Exchange rate shock
on swaps
Depreciation of central
bank eligible assets
Currency effect
Item
<7),W':.,'/76-$63E&775"#4')6,$(26+'4$8'$((20,('#7'$%)"A,')6,$(26+'0$#$4,0,#)'7#').,'8$6)'7/').,'*$#5h'.,#%,'")'37,('#7)')$5,'"#)7'$%%72#)').,'
67&&7A,6('7/'0$)26"#4'"#),6*$#5'$#3'/76,"4#'/2#3(9
G726%,W';<>9
39
These stress tests do not take into consideration the market risks, since they are in a moderate range. See also “Low market risks” chapter for the calculations on
the sensitivity of banks to the exchange rate and extreme exchange rate shocks through the exposure to market risks.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
63
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
;4)* (+,%+-+./* 2.&)22* .)2.* 6)"2%&)2* .4)* )55)0.* $5* .4)*
"22%6)-* 2+6%(."1)$%2* $00%&&)10)* $5* .%&6$+(* $1* .4)*
5+1"10+"(* 6"&7).28* B+.4-&"B"(* $5* -)3$2+.2* "1-* "1*
)?04"19)* &".)* 24$07:& .9& H:;7F& <45& A6<6& >J& :5S57& G6O>?&
B67X:& <>& A5<5?G;75& <45& =>::;B85& S68H5& >J& 4>H:54>8A& 67A&
C>?=>?6<5& A5=>:;<& @;<4A?6@68:D& <45& A5=?5C;6<;>7& >J& E'.b
58;F;B85&:5CH?;<;5:&67A&<45&5_C467F5&?6<5&:4>CXD&@5&6==8;5A&6&
S68H5b6<b?;:X&6==?>6C4&<>&C68CH86<5&>7&<45&B6:;:&>J&4;:<>?;C68&
A6<6N& (>?& <45& ><45?& ?;:X& G56:H?5:D& @5& H:5A& ?5C57<& C?;:;:&
5_=5?;57C5:&6:&6&B6:;:&n%6B85&1bjpN
;4)* 2.&)22)-* (+,%+-+./* 3$2+.+$1* $5* '"172* +63&$#)-*
0$1.+1%$%2(/8* '%.* .4)&)* +2* "* 2+91+5+0"1.* "2/66).&/*
').B))1*+1-+#+-%"(*'"172:&%45&:<?5::5A&8;`H;A;<9&=>:;<;>7&
>J&<45&:5S57&G6O>?&B67X:&@>H8A&46S5&B557&;7&6&=5?G6757<89&
=>:;<;S5&?67F5&J?>G&*=?;8&122aD&5`H688;7F&32b33&=5?&C57<&6<&
<45& 57A& >J& <45& 956?D& ;7:<56A& >J& <45& 12b11& =5?& C57<& 7>7b
Chart 2-50
Liquidity position in the stress scenario as a
percentage of balance sheet totals
1j
#5?&C57<
K.&)22)-*(+,%+-+./*2%&3(%2*".*.4)*
d*6"S$&*'"172
#5?&C57<
12
3j
3j
32
32
j
j
1j
#5?&C57<
E;7;GHG
G%&&)10/*'&)"7-$B1*$5*.4)*2.&)22)-*
(+,%+-+./*2%&3(%2
#5?&C57<
1j
12
12
3j
3j
32
32
j
j
2
2
G726%,W';<>9
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
I5CN&2a
'>SN&2a
$C<N&2a
-5=N&2a
*HFN&2a
TH89&2a
TH75&2a
E69&2a
m12
*=?N&2a
m3j
m12
E6?N&2a
m3j
(5BN&2a
mj
m32
T67N&2a
mj
m32
RV(&8;`H;A;<9&:H?=8H:
%><68&8;`H;A;<9&:H?=8H:
(i&8;`H;A;<9&:H?=8H:
64
I5CN&2a
'>SN&2a
$C<N&2a
-5=N&2a
*HFN&2a
m12
TH89&2a
m3j
m12
TH75&2a
m3j
E69&2a
m32
*=?N&2a
m32
E6?N&2a
mj
(5BN&2a
2
mj
T67N&2a
2
*S5?6F5&>J&o&G6O>?&B67X:
O* 5$&)+91* 0%&&)10/* (+,%+-+./* 1))-* 6"/* $00%&* +1* "*
2.&)22*2+.%".+$1:*.?56X;7F&A>@7&<45&8;`H;A;<9&=>:;<;>7&;7<>&
RV(& 67A& (i& =>:;<;>7:D& @5& G69& ;7J5?& <46<& <45& :4>?<b<5?G&
J>?5;F7& CH??57C9& 8;`H;A;<9& 755A:& >J& B67X:& @>H8A& 46S5&
C>7<;7H>H:89& A5C8;75AD& BH<& :<;88& @>H8A& 46S5& ?5G6;75A& ;7& 6&
75F6<;S5& ?67F5D& @4;85& <45& J>?;7<& 8;`H;A;<9& =>:;<;>7& @>H8A&
46S5&B557&6<&6==?>_;G6<589&<45&:6G5&85S58&:;7C5&E69&122a&
n+46?<& 1bj2pN& '>& A;JJ5?57<;6<;>7& :4>H8A& B5& G6A5& B5<@557&
<45& A57>G;76<;>7:& >J& 8;`H;A;<9& ;J& <45& :@6=& G6?X5<& ;:&
>=5?6<;7F&@;<4>H<&A;:<H?B67C5:N&*8<4>HF4&<45&=6?57<&B67X:&
C>7<;7H5&<>&B5&C>GG;<<5AD&J>?5;F7&CH??57C9&8;`H;A;<9&@>H8A&
B5& G>?5& A;JJ;CH8<& <>& =?>S;A5& J>?& <45;?& :HB:;A;6?;5:& ;7& 6&
=?><?6C<5A&8;`H;A;<9&C?;:;:N&%4H:D&@5&6::;F7&X59&?585S67C5&<>&
A;?5C<&JH7A:&=?>S;A5A&<4?>HF4&=6?57<&B67X&?586<;>7:D&>7&<45&
>75& 467AD& 67A& (i& :@6=:& >J& <45& =6?57<:& 67A& <45& C57<?68&
B67XD&>7&<45&><45?D&@4;C4&C67&57:H?5&JH7A;7F&>J&<45&J>?5;F7&
CH??57C9&8;`H;A;<9&755A:&J?>G&<45&J>?;7<&8;`H;A;<9&=>:;<;>7N
1j
12
E6_;GHG
:<?5::5A& :H?=8H:N& *& :;F7;J;C67<& ;G=?>S5G57<& ;:& >B:5?S5A&
H=>7&67689:;:&>J&<45&G;7;GHG&S68H5:f&4>@5S5?&S68H5:&C8>:5&
<>&[5?>D&;7A;C6<5:&<46<&<45?5&@>H8A&46S5&B557&6&B67X&;7&67&
5_<?5G5&=5?:;:<57<&:<?5::&:;<H6<;>7D&@45?5&<45&C>7<?6C<;>7&;7&
857A;7F&G;F4<&46S5&B557&86?F5?&n+46?<&1bj2pN&
2.6.2 THE CREDIT RISK STRESS TEST
DOES NOT INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL CAPITAL NEED DUE TO
HIGH PROFIT AND CAPITAL ADEQUACY
;4)* 2.&)22* 20)1"&+$* +2* 04"&"0.)&+2)-* '/* "* 6"&7)-*
-)0(+1)* +1* @=A* "1-* "* 2+91+5+0"1.(/* B)"7)1+19*
)?04"19)* &".)* C;"'()* PEeF:& $H?& G6C?>5C>7>G;C& J>?5C6:<&
C>7<6;7:& 7HG5?>H:& A>@7@6?A& ?;:X:D& =?5A>G;767<89& 8;7X5A&
<>& 85::& J6S>H?6B85& 5_<5?768& A5G67A& <467& 5_=5C<5AN& c;<4& 6&
A>@7<H?7& ;7& <45& F8>B68& 5C>7>G;C& C9C85D& J>?5;F7b>@75A&
A>G5:<;C& B67X:]& ?;:Xb<6X;7F& ;7C8;76<;>7& G69& 68:>& B5& 8>@5?N&
)7&=6?68858&@;<4&<46<D&C>?=>?6<5&;7S5:<G57<:&G;F4<&B5&8>@5?&
<467& 5_=5C<5AD& 67A& C>?=>?6<5& 6AOH:<G57<& G69& B5C>G5&
:<?>7F5?& 6F6;7D& 856A;7F& <>& JH?<45?& 86?F5b:C685& 869>JJ:N& %45&
86<<5?& G69& JH?<45?& H7A5?G;75& A>G5:<;C& A5G67A& S;6&
A5<5?;>?6<;>7& >J& <45& 4>H:54>8A:]& ;7C>G5& =>:;<;>7N& %45&
@>?:57;7F&F8>B68&5C>7>G;C&C9C85&G69&6F6;7&856A&<>&?;:5&;7&
?;:X&=?5G;6&?5:H8<;7F&;7&6&@56X5?&5_C467F5&?6<5&67A&4;F45?&
;7<5?5:<&?6<5:N&%4;:&@>H8A&;7C?56:5&JH7A;7F&C>:<:&<>&B><4&<45&
C>?=>?6<5& 67A& 4>H:54>8A& :5C<>?:D& G67;J5:<5A& ;7& @56X5?&
;7S5:<G57<& 6C<;S;<9& 67A& 4>H:54>8A& C>7:HG=<;>7N& *&
@56X57;7F&?568&5_C467F5&?6<5&C67&>789&G>A5?6<589&G;<;F6<5&
<45:5&75F6<;S5&5JJ5C<:&B9&;G=?>S;7F&5_=>?<N&$7&<45&@4>85D&6&
:;F7;J;C67<89&85::&J6S>H?6B85&5_<5?768&57S;?>7G57<&<467&<45&
hb:46=5A& ?5C>S5?9& >J& <45& B6:58;75& :C576?;>& C67& C6H:5& 6&
:HB:<67<;68& A5C8;75& ;7& A>G5:<;C& QI#& <4;:& 956?& 6:& @588D&
=>::;B89&J>88>@5A&B9&6&JH?<45?&G>A5?6<5&A5C8;75&;7&1233N
!)-M-&$(&%R"&()'*'+)*,&)'%"!E"I)*!/&-/-%"E
Table 2-6
Macroeconomic indicators in the baseline and stress scenarios
Baseline scenario
The difference between the two
scenarios
Stress scenario
2010
2011
2010
2011
2010
2011
GDP*
-0.2
3.4
-2.2
-1.0
-2.0
-4.5
Private sector employment*
-1.7
0.1
-2.3
-3.1
-0.5
-3.3
CPI*
4.4
2.3
5.0
3.5
0.6
1.2
HUF/EUR exchange rate
270
270
315
315
HUF interest rate (per cent)
6.0
6.0
8.0
8.0
<7),W':.,'A$6"$*&,('0$65,3'-").'p'(.7-'$##2$&'%.$#4,'"#'q9
G726%,W';<>9
=?5b<6_&=?>J;<&>J&<45&B67X;7F&:9:<5G&B9&6&<><68&>J&RV(&ge2&
B;88;>7&@4;C4D&4>@5S5?D&@6:&=6?<89&C>G=57:6<5A&B9&C5?<6;7&
:4>?<b<5?G&;<5G:&@4;C4&;G=?>S5A&56?7;7F:&nG6;789&?5S57H5&
>7&J;767C;68&>=5?6<;>7:pN&)7&1232&67A&1233D&;7&<45&B6:58;75&
:C576?;>D&@5&:<;88&J>?5C6:<&=?>S;:;>7;7F&>J&RV(&g22&B;88;>7&
67A& RV(& 1gj& B;88;>7& ?5:=5C<;S589D& @4;85& <45& ?>85& >J& <45&
4;F45?b<467b5_=5C<5A& =?5b<6_& =?>J;<& ;G=?>S;7F& ;<5G:& ;7&
122a& ;:& 8;X589& <>& A;G;7;:4N& c5& 6?5& <45?5J>?5& 5_=5C<;7F& 6&
:;F7;J;C67<&A5C8;75&;7&=?>J;<:&;7&<45&B67X;7F&:5C<>?&;7&1232N&
)7& <45& :<?5::& :C576?;>D& =?>S;:;>7:& G69& 5_C55A& RV(& e^2&
B;88;>7&;7&1232&6:&6&?5:H8<&>J&<45&4;F4&8>67&8>::&?6<;>&n+46?<&
1bj3p&=>::;B89&?5:H8<;7F&;7&75F6<;S5&=?>J;<6B;8;<9N
Chart 2-51
Estimated loan loss rates in the baseline and stress
scenarios
eN2
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
eN2
1N2
1N2
3Nj
3Nj
3N2
3N2
2Nj
2Nj
2N2
2N2
I5CN&33
1Nj
I5CN&32
gN2
1Nj
I5CN&2a
gN2
I5CN&2d
gNj
I5CN&2o
gNj
I5CN&2^
U)* %2)-* 6$-)(E)2.+6".+$1* 5$&* .4)* 3&$'"'+(+./* $5*
-)5"%(.*$5*0$63"1+)2*"1-*4$%2)4$(-2:*)7&>H?&6==?>6C4D&
<45& =?>B6B;8;<9& >J& A5J6H8<& n#Ip& ?5=?5:57<:& 6& ?;:X& =6?6G5<5?&
<46<& 8;7X:& <45& G6C?>5C>7>G;C& 57S;?>7G57<& @;<4& =>::;B85&
8>67&8>::N&c5&5:<;G6<5A&<45&=?>B6B;8;<9&>J&A5J6H8<&>J&B67X:]&
C>?=>?6<5& C?5A;<& =>?<J>8;>& ;7& S6?;>H:& G6C?>5C>7>G;C&
:C576?;>:&H:;7F&67&6FF?5F6<5&B67X?H=<C9&G>A58N&c5&H:5A&6&
S5C<>?&6H<>?5F?5::;S5&nh*!p&G>A58&J>?&J>?5C6:<;7F&<45&?6<;>&
>J&B67X?H=<&C>G=67;5:&;7&<45&B6:58;75&67A&:<?5::&:C576?;>:N&
)7& <45& G>A58D& ;7& 6AA;<;>7& <>& <45& B67X?H=<C9& ?6<5D& @5&
;7C8HA5A&57A>F57>H:&S6?;6B85:&:HC4&6:&<45&677H68&C467F5&;7&
QI#D&677H68&;7J86<;>7D&A>G5:<;C&7>G;768&;7<5?5:<&?6<5:&67A&
<45&5H?>&5_C467F5&?6<5D&67A&C>7<?>885A&J>?&J>?5;F7&7>G;768&
;7<5?5:<& ?6<5:N& )7& ?586<;>7& <>& 4>H:54>8A:D& @5& 5:<;G6<5A& <45&
=?>B6B;8;<9& >J& A5J6H8<& @;<4& <45& +>_e2& =?>=>?<;>768& 46[6?A&
G>A58& >7& ;7A;S;AH68& C>7<?6C<:D& :5=6?6<589& J>?& J>?;7<& 67A&
J>?5;F7& CH??57C9bA57>G;76<5A& 4>H:;7F& 8>67:D& 4>G5& 5`H;<9&
67A& =5?:>768& 8>67:N& *G>7F& 5_=8676<>?9& S6?;6B85:D& <45&
CH:<>G5?&C46?6C<5?;:<;C:&n6F5D&:5_D&G6?;<68&:<6<H:D&5AHC6<;>7D&
A6<5&>J&A?6@A>@7p&6?5&:H==85G57<5A&@;<4&G6C?>5C>7>G;C&
S6?;6B85:& n5_C467F5& ?6<5& A5S;6<;>7& J?>G& <45& B>??>@;7F&
5_C467F5&?6<5D&C467F5&;7&5G=8>9G57<D&<4?55bG>7<4&.V.$!&
67A& "V!).$!pN& )7& <45& C>H?:5& >J& 5S68H6<;7F& <45& ?5:H8<:D& ;<&
:4>H8A& B5& 7><5A& <46<& H=>7& 5_6G;7;7F& <45& C>??586<;>7:&
B5<@557& <45& A;JJ5?57<& G6C?>5C>7>G;C& S6?;6B85:& 67A& <45&
C?5A;<;7F& 8>::5:D& 7>7b8;756?& C>??586<;>7:& @5?5& C>7:;A5?5A&
>789& <>& 6& S5?9& 8;G;<5A& A5F?55D& 6:& >H?& <;G5& :5?;5:& A>& 7><&
C>7<6;7& 67& 5C>7>G;C& ?5C5::;>7& >J& :HC4& G6F7;<HA5D& @4;C4&
G69&856A&<>&H7A5?5:<;G6<;>7&>J&?;:X:&;7&?586<;>7&<>&5_<?5G5&
G>S5G57<:N
'>7bJ;767C;68&C>?=>?6<;>7:&m&B6:58;75&:C576?;>
'>7bJ;767C;68&C>?=>?6<;>7:&m&:<?5::&:C576?;>
R>H:54>8A:&m&B6:58;75&:C576?;>
R>H:54>8A:&m&:<?5::&:C576?;>
;4)*0$1.+1%+19*4+94*&".)*$5*3&$#+2+$1+19*B)"7)12*.4)*
)"&1+192* 0"3"0+./* $5* .4)* '"17+19* 2/2.)6:& )7& 122aD&
;G=6;?G57<& >J& C>?=>?6<5& 67A& 4>H:54>8A& 8>67:& ?5AHC5A& <45& G726%,W';<>9
40
When applying the Cox model to credit risks, we analyse the effect of the special characteristics of individuals and the macroeconomic environment on the
maturity of the loan. The term of proportional hazard refers to the aspect of the model according to which the proportion between the bankruptcy likelihood of
two individuals with different characteristics is dependent on their varying characteristics. The model was estimated with the maximum likelihood method.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
65
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
66
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
Additional capital need in the banking sector in the
baseline and stress scenarios
1232
.6:58;75&:C576?;>
+>7:>8;A6<5A&@;<4
B67X:}&J;767C;68
57<5?=?;:5:&67A
J>?5;F7&:HB:;A;6?;5:
+>7:>8;A6<5A&@;<4
B67X:}&J;767C;68
57<5?=?;:5:
.7&RV(
.67X:
.7&RV(
+>7:>8;A6<5A&@;<4
B67X:}&J;767C;68
57<5?=?;:5:&67A
J>?5;F7&:HB:;A;6?;5:
j2
ej
e2
gj
g2
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
+>7:>8;A6<5A&@;<4
B67X:}&J;767C;68
57<5?=?;:5:
;4)* "--+.+$1"(* 0"3+."(* 1))-* $5* .4)* '"17+19* 2)0.$&* +2*
1)9(+9+'()*+1*.4)*'"2)(+1)*20)1"&+$*"1-*6"1"9)"'()*+1*
.4)*2.&)22*20)1"&+$:&*7&6AA;<;>768&C6=;<68&755A&6?;:5:&;J&<45&
8>67& 8>::5:& >J& 6& F;S57& B67X& C677><& B5& >JJ:5<& B9& >=5?6<;7F&
=?>J;<& 67A& :H?=8H:& C6=;<68D& 67A& C>7:5`H57<89& <45& C6=;<68&
6A5`H6C9&?6<;>&>J&<45&B67X&@>H8A&J688&B58>@&<45&d&=5?&C57<&
G;7;GHG& ?5FH86<>?9& C6=;<68& 85S58N& +6=;<68& ;7O5C<;>7:& 6?5&
75F8;F;B85& ;7& <45& B6:58;75& :C576?;>& >@;7F& <>& <45& F575?6889&
4;F4&85S58&>J&C6=;<68&6A5`H6C9&>J&<45&B67X;7F&:5C<>?N&)7&<45&
:<?5::&:C576?;>D&67&6AA;<;>768&C6=;<68&;7O5C<;>7&>J&RV(&ejbj2&
B;88;>7& ;:& 5_=5C<5A& n+46?<& 1bj1pN& %4;:& 6G>H7<& G69& B5&
?5F6?A5A& 6:& 75F8;F;B85& ;7& C>G=6?;:>7& <>& <45& RV(& 1D1j2&
B;88;>7& >J& >@7& JH7A:& 6<& <45& 6FF?5F6<5& 85S58N& )7& 6AA;<;>7D&
Chart 2-52
.67X:
;4)* 0"3+."(* "-),%"0/* $5* .4)* '"17+19* 2/2.)6* 6"/*
&)6"+1* 4+94* +1* '$.4* .4)* '"2)(+1)* "1-* .4)* 2.&)22*
20)1"&+$:& )7& 122aD& B67X:& :;F7;J;C67<89& A585S5?6F5A& <45;?&
B6867C5& :455<:k& B><4& <45& C>?=>?6<5& 67A& 4>H:54>8A& 8>67&
=>?<J>8;>&:HB:<67<;6889&A5C8;75AN&%4;:&:;F7;J;C67<89&;7C?56:5A&
C6=;<68&6A5`H6C9&>7&;<:&>@7D&@4;C4&@6:&JH?<45?&;G=?>S5A&B9&
C6=;<68&;7O5C<;>7:&>J&C5?<6;7&B67X:&AH?;7F&<45&956?N&%45&+*!&
;7A;C6<>?D& 6==?>6C4;7F& 3g& =5?& C57<& ;7& 122aD& G69& ?;:5& <>&
6==?>_;G6<589&3^&=5?&C57<&;7&1233&;7&<45&B6:58;75&:C576?;>D&
@;<4>H<& =69G57<& >J& A;S;A57A:N& )7& <45& :<?5::& :C576?;>D& <45&
C6=;<68& 6A5`H6C9& ?6<;>& @>H8A& ?;:5& G;7;G6889& ;7& 1232D& 67A&
<457&J688&<>&33Nd&=5?&C57<&;7&1233D&@4;C4&?5G6;7:&:;F7;J;C67<89&
4;F45?&<467&<45&?5FH86<>?9&G;7;GHGN
j2
ej
e2
gj
g2
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
1233
-<?5::&:C576?;>
<7),W' :.,' $33")"7#$&' %$8")$&' "#@,%)"7#' "(' ).,' (20' 7/' "#3"A"32$&' *$#5'
$33")"7#$&'%$8")$&'#,,3(9':.,'3$)$'/76'JK^^'%7#)$"#(').,'%$8")$&'"#@,%)"7#'
#,,3'/76'JK^K9
G726%,W';<>9
=6?57<& B67X:& 46S5& C>7J;?G5A& <45;?& C>GG;<G57<& ;7& :5S5?68&
;7:<67C5:& <>& =?>S;A5& 75C5::6?9& C6=;<68& J>?& <45& =?HA57<&
>=5?6<;>7&>J&<45;?&RH7F6?;67&:HB:;A;6?;5:N
2.7 High returns for institutional investors
!7&&7-"#4' ).,' 2#/$A726$*&,' "#A,()0,#)' 8,6/760$#%,' "#' Chart 2-53
JKKk1' 370,()"%' "#A,()0,#)' /2#3(' ,$6#,3' ."4.' 867/")(1' Performance and capital flows of investment funds
86,370"#$#)&+'7#',O2")+'$#3'47A,6#0,#)'*7#3'"#A,()0,#)(1' in 2009
-."&,'/670').,'(,%7#3'.$&/'7/').,'+,$61').,'#,)'$((,)'A$&2,('7/'
;4)*0$&&)0.)-*1).*"22).*#"(%)
#5?&C57<
).,' /2#3(?' .$A,' $&(7' "#%6,$(,3' ).6724.' ).,' #,-' %$8")$&' 3j2 #5?&C57<
3j2
"#/&7-(' 6,&$),3' )7' 7).,6' "#()")2)"7#$&' "#A,()76(9' :.,'
3e2
"#A,()0,#)(' 7/' "#(26$#%,' %708$#",(' $#3' 8,#("7#' /2#3(' "#' 3e2
*7#3(' $#3' 07#,+' 0$65,)' /2#3(' -,6,' &"5,&+' 07)"A$),3' *+'
3g2
3g2
3,%&"#"#4' "#),6,()' 6$),' ,M8,%)$)"7#(1' -."&,' ).,' 876)/7&"7'
6,()62%)26"#4' 7/' 86"A$),' 8,#("7#' /2#3(' -$(' 3,),60"#,3' *+' 312
312
#,-'6,42&$)"7#'()"82&$)"#4').,'%&7("#4'7/').,'!b'87(")"7#9'
41
E>759&G6?X5<:&JH7A:
.6867C5A&JH7A:
!568&5:<6<5&JH7A:
$<45?:
I5CN&2a
'>SN&2a
.>7A&JH7A:
"`H;<9&JH7A:
(H7A&>J&JH7A:
.>7A&JH7A:
(H7A&>J&JH7A:
!568&5:<6<5&JH7A:
I5CN&2a
'>SN&2a
$C<N&2a
-5=N&2a
*HFN&2a
TH89&2a
TH75&2a
*=?N&2a
E>759&G6?X5<:
JH7A:
"`H;<9&JH7A:
E69&2a
T).*2"()2
.7&RV(
E6?N&2a
3e2
312
322
d2
^2
e2
12
2
m12
me2
m^2
md2
m322
$C<N&2a
-5=N&2a
*HFN&2a
TH89&2a
TH75&2a
E69&2a
*=?N&2a
a2
E6?N&2a
a2
(5BN&2a
322
T67N&2a
322
I5CN&2d
332
(5BN&2a
A&)6+%6*$1*(+5)*+12%&"10)*3&$-%0.2*-)0(+1)-*+1*PQQR:&
)7& <45& =>?<J>8;>& >J& ;7:H?67C5& C>G=67;5:D& 6& A5C8;75& @6:&
?5C>?A5A& J>?& 688& =?>AHC<:& ;7& 122aD& @;<4& <45& 5_C5=<;>7& >J&
:;7F85&=?5G;HG&=>8;C;5:&n<45&<><68&;7:H?67C5&=>?<J>8;>&@6:&d&
=5?&C57<&:G6885?&C>G=6?5A&<>&<45&57A&>J&122dp&n+46?<&1bjepN&
I5:=;<5&<45&J688;7F&=>=H86?;<9&>J&8;J5&;7:H?67C5&=?>AHC<:D&<45&
7HGB5?&>J&H7;<b8;7X5A&8;J5&;7:H?67C5&=>8;C;5:&A5C8;75A&B9&<45&
:G6885:<&?6<5D&J688;7F&B9&>789&3No&=5?&C57<Ne3&%45&7HGB5?&67A&
6G>H7<&>J&:;7F85&=?5G;HG&;7:H?67C5&=>8;C;5:&46:&;7C?56:5A&
;7&<45&8;J5&;7:H?67C5&:5FG57<D&=6?<89&6:&6&?5:H8<&>J&6B>8;:4;7F&
<6_&B575J;<:&6:&>J&3&T67H6?9&1232N
332
T67N&2a
M1#)2.6)1.* 5%1-2* &)"(+2)-* 4+94* &).%&12* +1* PQQR8*
"00$63"1+)-* '/* 2%'2."1.+"(* 0"3+."(* +15($B2* 5&$6* .4)*
2)0$1-* 4"(5* $5* .4)* /)"&:* (>88>@;7F& <45& A>@7<H?7& ;7& <45&
=5?J>?G67C5& >J& ;7S5:<G57<& JH7A:& ;7& 56?89& 122aD& <459&
:4>@5A& :HB:<67<;68& F6;7:& J?>G& <45& :5C>7A& `H6?<5?& >J& <45&
956?D& =6?<;CH86?89& >7& <45;?& 5`H;<9& 67A& B>7A& ;7S5:<G57<:&
n+46?<&1bjgpN&%45&:5C<>?&5_=5?;57C5A&C6=;<68&>H<J8>@:&;7&<45&
J;?:<& 468J& >J& <45& 956?D& J>88>@5A& B9& 6& 75<& C6=;<68& ;7J8>@&
C>GG57C;7F&;7&TH89D&=?;G6?;89&6:&6&?5:H8<&>J&;7S5:<G57<:&B9&
;7:H?67C5&C>G=67;5:&67A&=57:;>7&JH7A:N&!568&5:<6<5&JH7A:D&
@4;C4& H7A5?@57<& C467F5:& ;7& ?5FH86<;>7& ;7& 122dD& @5?5&
H76B85&<>&6AOH:<&<45;?&=?5S;>H:&75F6<;S5&=5?J>?G67C5&>?&F6;7&
75<& ;7J8>@:& J?>G& :685:& ;7& 122a& n<45?5& @6:D& 4>@5S5?D& 6&
G>A5?6<5&=>:;<;S5&;7J8>@&J?>G&-5=<5GB5?pN&IH5&<>&;7S5:<>?:]&
A5C8;7;7F& ;7<5?5:<& ?6<5& 5_=5C<6<;>7:D& G>759& G6?X5<& 67A&
B>7A&JH7A:&@5?5&<45&@;775?:&;7&<5?G:&>J&C6=;<68&;7J8>@:&;7&
<45&:5C>7A&468J&>J&<45&956?N
.6867C5A&JH7A:
$<45?:
<7),W':.,'%.$#4,'"#'#,)'$((,)'A$&2,'-$('/"&),6,3'-").')6$#($%)"7#('X($&,('
$#3' 6,3,08)"7#Z9' :.,' 7).,6(' %$),476+' %7#)$"#(' 3$)$' 7#' 42$6$#),,31'
3,6"A$)"A,1'%&7(,3E,#3'$#3'2#%&$(("/",3'/2#3(9
G726%,W'>C;YGi9
Currently 18 per cent of the total unit-linked portfolios are schemes combined with housing loans, while nearly 4 per cent of the mortgage loan portfolio of banks
is linked to such a product.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
67
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
Chart 2-54
Premium income realised from life insurance products and the proportion of funds channelled into the
banking system to bank deposits totals
a2
<"&1)-*3&)6+%6
.7&RV(
2No
2N^
d2
2Nj
o2
2Ne
^2
2Ng
j2
2N1
e2
g2
V+"'+(+.+)2*.&"215)&&)-*+1.$*.4)*'"17+19
2)0.$&*&)(".+#)*.$*-)3$2+.2*$%.2."1-+19
#5?&C57<
2N3
q3
q1
qg
+86::;C&8;J5&;7:H?67C5:&n122dp
+86::;C&8;J5&;7:H?67C5:&n122ap
V7;<b8;7X5A&8;J5&;7:H?67C5:&n122dp
V7;<b8;7X5A&8;J5&;7:H?67C5:&n122ap
qe
2N2
q3
q1
122d
qg
qe
q3
q1
qg
qe
122a
+86::;C&8;J5&;7:H?67C5&C6:4&67A&A5=>:;<
V7;<b8;7X5A&8;J5&;7:H?67C5&C6:4&67A&A5=>:;<
G726%,W'TGid!1';<>9
U+.4* -)0(+1+19* 3&)6+%6* +10$6)8* .4)* &)2%(.2* $5*
3)12+$1*5%1-2*)?0))-)-*.4)*($22)2*$5*3&)#+$%2*/)"&:&
%45& =?5G;HG& ;7C>G5& >J& =57:;>7& JH7A:& :;F7;J;C67<89&
A5C8;75A& ;7& 122ak& <45& =?;S6<5& n:5C>7Ab=;886?p& :5FG57<&
B>>X5A& 6& e& =5?& C57<& A5C8;75D& @4;85& <45& S>8H7<6?9& n<4;?Ab
=;886?p&:5FG57<&?5C>?A5A&6&3e&=5?&C57<&A5C8;75&C>G=6?5A&<>&
<45&=?5S;>H:&956?N&(>88>@;7F&<45&H7J6S>H?6B85&;7S5:<G57<&
=5?J>?G67C5&;7&122dD&<45&=?;S6<5&JH7A:&?568;:5Ae1&1gNo&=5?&
C57<& 9;58A:& >7& 6S5?6F5& ;7& 122aD& @4;85& <45& JH7A:& ;7& <45&
42
68
S>8H7<6?9&:5FG57<&F6;75A&3^Nd&=5?&C57<&>7&6S5?6F5&AH?;7F&
<45& :6G5& =5?;>AN& *& :;F7;J;C67<& =?>=>?<;>7& >J& <45& ;7C?56:5&
;7&<45&=>?<J>8;>&@6:&?568;:5A&>7&A>G5:<;C&F>S5?7G57<&A5B<&
:5CH?;<;5:& 67A& ;7S5:<G57<& JH7A& :46?5:N& %45& :46?5& >J&
A>G5:<;C& ;7:<?HG57<:& ;7& <45& =>?<J>8;>& >J& =?;S6<5& =57:;>7&
JH7A:&G69&;7C?56:5&J?>G&1232&6:&6&?5:H8<&>J&<45&F>S5?7G57<]:&
:>bC6885A&CH??57C9&C>G=8;67C5&?5FH86<;>7&@4;C4&8;G;<:&<45&
(i& =>:;<;>7& 67A& <45& ;745?57<& ?;:X:& >J& =?;S6<5& =57:;>7&
JH7A:]&=>?<J>8;>N
The yields of the selectable portfolios are the following: the classic portfolios realised 11.45 per cent, the balanced portfolios gained 17.4 per cent, while the
growth portfolios realised 25.6 per cent on average. The yields of the different funds deviated in a wide range: the difference between the maximum and the
minimum yields recorded in 2009 was 20 percentage points, but in 2008–2009 it was 10 percentage points, and this range of the cumulative yields in the last 10
years was 5 percentage points.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
2.8 Low risks in the domestic payment and
settlement systems
!$&* fMI<>8* PQQR* B"2* 0"(6)&* .4"1* .4)* 3&)#+$%2* /)"&*
"1-* B"2* 5&))* $5* 24$072:& h)."!& C>7<;7H5A& <>& B5&
C46?6C<5?;:5A& B9& 4;F4& ;7<?6A69& 8;`H;A;<9& >@;7F& <>& ;7<?6A69&
C?5A;<&8;75:ee&;7C?56:5A&;7&122d&67A&<H?7>S5?&:<6B;8;:;7F&6<&
85S58:&8>@5?&<467&;7&<45&=6:<N&-;7C5&h)."!&=?;G6?;89&:5?S5:&
J>?& :5<<85G57<& >J& 86?F5& S68H5& G>759& 67A& C6=;<68& G6?X5<&
<?67:6C<;>7:D& <45& :9:<5G& <H?7>S5?& >BS;>H:89& G>S5:& ;7& 8;75&
@;<4& <45& 6C<;S;<9& >7& <4>:5& G6?X5<:N& h)."!& <H?7>S5?D&
4>@5S5?D& ;7C8HA5:& 67& ;7C?56:;7F& :46?5& >J& <45& :5<<85G57<& >J&
C57<?68&B67X&;7:<?HG57<:N
M1* PQQR* fMI<>* 3"&.+0+3"1.2* -+-* 1$.* 2+91+5+0"1.(/*
&)-%0)* .4)* +1.&"-"/* 0&)-+.* (+1)2* .4".* 4"-* '))1*
2%'2."1.+"((/*+10&)"2)-*)"&(+)&*CG4"&.*PEYYF8*"1-*.4%2*
.4)*()#)(*$5*+1.&"-"/*(+,%+-+./*&)6"+1)-*4+94*".*'$.4*
.4)* "99&)9".)* "1-* +1-+#+-%"(* 3"&.+0+3"1.* ()#)(:& )7&
122dD& ;7& ?5:=>7:5& <>& <45& C?;:;:D& h)."!& =6?<;C;=67<:&
:;F7;J;C67<89& ;7C?56:5A& <45;?& ;7<?6A69& C?5A;<& 8;75:& =?;G6?;89&
>H<&>J&C6H<;>7D&67A&<45&C57<?68&B67X&A5C;:;>7:&>7&<45&8;:<&>J&
58;F;B85& C>886<5?68& 68:>& :<?57F<4575A& <4;:& B546S;>H?& n+46?<&
1bj^pN&)7&122aD&<45&8;:<&>J&58;F;B85&C>886<5?68&@6:&5_<57A5A&<>&
;7C8HA5&GH7;C;=68&B>7A:&67A&G>?<F6F5&B>7A:&>J&>@7&;::H5D&
JH?<45?&J6C;8;<6<;7F&<45&G676F5G57<&>J&;7<?6A69&C?5A;<&8;75:N&
*=6?<&J?>G&<45&8;:<&>J&58;F;B85&C>886<5?68D&<45&C>G=>:;<;>7&>J&
43
44
Chart 2-55
Current account balance and available liquidity as
well as the maximum usage of intraday credit line in
the system
XJKKlQJKKLZ
gD222
.7&RV(
#5?&C57<
^2
1Dj22
j2
1D222
e2
3Dj22
g2
3D222
12
j22
32
2
2
T67N&2d
(5BN&2d
E6?N&2d
*=?N&2d
E69&2d
TH75&2d
TH89&2d
*HFN&2d
-5=N&2d
$C<N&2d
'>SN&2d
I5CN&2d
T67N&2a
(5BN&2a
E6?N&2a
*=?N&2a
E69&2a
TH75&2a
TH89&2d
*HFN&2a
-5=N&2a
$C<N&2a
'>SN&2a
I5CN&2a
T67N&32
I#' JKKL1' eI>RHmV' %7#)"#2,3' )7' *,' %.$6$%),6"(,3' *+' ."4.'
"#)6$3$+'&"O2"3")+'7-"#4')7'%6,3")'&"#,('"#%6,$(,3'"#'JKKk'$#3'
)26#7A,6' ()$*"&"("#4' $)' &,A,&(' &7-,6' ).$#' "#' ).,' 8$()9' eI>RH'
8$6)"%"8$#)(' -,6,' $*&,' )7' (,))&,' )6$#($%)"7#(' ,$6&",6' ).$#' "#'
JKKk1'32,')7'."4.'"#)6$3$+'&"O2"3")+'$#3'46$32$&&+'$3@2(),3'
%2()70,6' "#)6$3$+' %6,3")' &"#,(9' !670' Y%)7*,6' JKKL1' ).,'
6,3,08)"7#' 7/' 47A,6#0,#)' (,%26")",(' "(' (,))&,3' "#' eI>RH'
"#(),$3' 7/' 2("#4' ).,' I#),6*$#5' B&,$6"#4' G+(),0' XIBGZh' "#'
6,&$)"7#')7').,'$*7A,1').,';<>'.$('"#%6,$(,3').,'/6,O2,#%+'
7/' 62##"#4' ).,' 46"3&7%5' 6,(7&2)"7#' $&476").0' /76' 86,A,#)"A,'
82687(,(9' Y#' o$#2$6+' ^' JKKL1' ).,' %,#)6$&' %72#),68$6)+'
/2#%)"7#'%$66+"#4'%6,3")'6"(5'-$('(,8$6$),3'/670').,'%,#)6$&'
(,%26")",('3,87(")76+'$%)"A")+1'$#3').,'%&,$6"#4',#4"#,'7/').,'
IBG'-$('2846$3,39':.,'$A$"&$*"&")+'7/').,'7A,6(,,#'(+(),0('"('
$3,O2$),'/670'$'/"#$#%"$&'()$*"&")+'87"#)'7/'A",-9
+H??57<&6CC>H7<&B6867C5
*S6;86B85&8;`H;A;<9
E6_;GHG&H:6F5&>J&;7<?6A69&C?5A;<&8;75&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
<7),W'G)$6)E7/E3$+'*$&$#%,'$3@2()0,#)('$#3';<>'$#3'F2#4$6"$#'G)$),'
:6,$(26+')6$#($%)"7#('-,6,',M%&23,3'/670').,'3$)$'(,6",(9':.,'2($4,'7/'
"#)6$3$+' %6,3")' &"#,' 3$)$' "(' $A$"&$*&,' 7#&+' /76' o$#2$6+E<7A,0*,6' JKKl'
$#3'()$6)"#4'/670'o2&+'JKKk9'N$)$'"('"#'$&&'%$(,('%$&%2&$),3'$('$'[E3$+'
07A"#4'$A,6$4,9
G726%,W';<>9
8;`H;A;<9& 6S6;86B85& ;7& <45& :9:<5G& @6:& ;7J8H57C5A& B9& <45&
A5C?56:5&>J&<45&?5:5?S5&?5`H;?5G57<&?6<;>&6<&<45&57A&>J&122df&
<45& ?5:H8<;7F& J?55& ?5:5?S5:& @5?5& =86C5A& ;7& E'.& B;88:& >?&
>S5?7;F4<&C57<?68&B67X&A5=>:;<:N&%45&E'.&B;88&;:&58;F;B85&6:&
C>886<5?68&;7&C57<?68&B67X&>=5?6<;>7:D&67A&<4H:&;<&;:&6S6;86B85&
6:& =><57<;68& 8;`H;A;<9& ;7& h)."!D& :;G;86?89& <>& <45& >S5?7;F4<&
C57<?68&B67X&A5=>:;<&@4;C4&;:&?5=6;A&;7&<45&G>?7;7F&B5J>?5&
:9:<5G& >=57;7FD& 457C5& ;<& ;:& 6S6;86B85& 8;`H;A;<9N& %45& C4>;C5&
B5<@557& <45& <@>& C57<?68& B67X& ;7:<?HG57<:& ;:& 75H<?68& J?>G&
<45& =>;7<& >J& S;5@& >J& ;7<?6A69& 8;`H;A;<9& ;7& h)."!N& %45&
=85AF5A&=>?<;>7&>J&<45&>@75A&E'.&B;88&=>?<J>8;>&A5C8;75A&
;7& 122a& n+46?<& 1bj^pD& @4;C4& A;A& 7><& ?5:H8<& ;7& ?568;:;7F&
8;`H;A;<9& ?;:X& ;7& h)."!D& :;7C5& <45& >@7& =>?<J>8;>& ;<:58J&
;7C?56:5A&;7&S68H5&67A&h)."!&<H?7>S5?&:<6B;8;:5A&6<&6&8>@5?&
85S58N
VIBER: Real Time Gross Settlement System operated by the MNB.
VIBER liquidity is composed of two components: the account balance and the portion of the securities portfolio pledged for the MNB which is not used up for
monetary purposes (overnight or longer term central bank loans).
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
69
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
Chart 2-56
Chart 2-57
Portion of securities portfolio pledged for the MNB
and the system participant’s MNB bill portfolio
Liquidity needed for settling IBC-turnover as
a percentage of available liquidity (average,
maximum, minimum), and queued transactions as
a percentage of turnover
3Dd22
.7&RV(
3D^22
#5?&C57<
%4>H:67A<4
^
^2
3D122
j2
j
e2
e
^22
g2
g
e22
12
1
32
3
2
2
3D222
d22
122
T67N&2d
(5BN&2d
E6?N&2d
*=?N&2d
E69&2d
TH75&2d
TH89&2d
*HFN&2d
-5=N&2d
$C<N&2d
'>SN&2d
I5CN&2d
T67N&2a
(5BN&2a
E6?N&2a
*=?N&2a
E69&2a
TH75&2a
TH89&2a
*HFN&2a
-5=N&2a
$C<N&2a
'>SN&2a
I5CN&2a
T67N&32
2
Q>S5?7G57<&B>7A
E>?<F6F5&B>7A
$<45?&58;F;B85&B>7A:
gj
#5?&C57<
%?56:H?9&B;88&B;88
%?56:H?9&7><5
+57<?68&B67X&B>7A:
.7&RV(
g2
V7C>S5?5A&<?67:6C<;>7:l&<H?7>S5?&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
E;7;GHG
E6_;GHG
*S5?6F5
^D222
jD222
1j
eD222
12
T67N&2^
E6?N&2^
E69&2^
TH89&2^
-5=N&2^
'>SN&2^
T67N&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH89&2o
-5=N&2o
'>SN&2o
T67N&2d
E6?N&2d
E69&2d
TH89&2d
-5=N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
E6?N&2a
E69&2a
TH89&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
T67N&32
3De22
gD222
3j
G726%,W';<>
`H5H5A&<?67:6C<;>7:&n@4;C4&C>H8A&7><&B5&C856?5A&;7&<45&7;F4<b
<;G5& C856?;7F& AH5& <>& ;7:HJJ;C;57<& JH7A:p& 6:& 6& =5?C57<6F5& >J&
<H?7>S5?& ;7& )+-& ?5G6;75A& 75F8;F;B85f& 6& 86?F5?& S>8HG5& >J&
`H5H5A& <?67:6C<;>7:& @6:& ?5C>?A5A& >789& 6<& <45& 57A& >J& 122a&
n+46?<&1bjopN&
1D222
32
3D222
2
2
T67N&2d
(5BN&2d
E6?N&2d
*=?N&2d
E69&2d
TH75&2d
TH89&2d
*HFN&2d
*HFN&2d
-5=N&2d
$C<N&2d
'>SN&2d
I5CN&2d
T67N&2a
(5BN&2a
E6?N&2a
*=?N&2a
E69&2a
TH75&2a
TH89&2a
*HFN&2a
-5=N&2a
$C<N&2a
'>SN&2a
I5CN&2a
j
%45&:46?5&>J&<45&=85AF5A&C>886<5?68&>J&<45&C57<?68&B67X&B>7A:
$H<:<67A;7F&6G>H7<&>J&C57<?68&B67X&B;88:&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
<7),W':.,'(,%26")",('$6,'$446,4$),3'$)').,'$%%,8)$#%,'A$&2,'3,),60"#,3'
*+').,';<>'7#'$'3$"&+'*$("(9'
G726%,W';<>9
;4)*"#"+("'+(+./*$5*fMI<>*5%&.4)&*+63&$#)-:&)7&>?A5?&<>&
JH?<45?& ?5AHC5& >=5?6<;>768& ?;:XD& ;G=85G57<6<;>7& >J& <45&
6C<;>7& =867& =?5S;>H:89& A5J;75A& C>7<;7H5A& ;7& 122aN& %45&
6C<;>7&=867&@6:&:H==85G57<5A&@;<4&<6:X:&?5:H8<5A&J?>G&<45&
C>G=?5457:;S5& >S5?:;F4<& 6::5::G57<& >J& h)."!& ;7& 122df&
;G=85G57<6<;>7& >J& <45:5& ;:& 68:>& H7A5?@69N& $7& <45& B6:;:& >J&
<45& C>G=?5457:;S5& 6::5::G57<& >J& h)."!D& <45& :9:<5G&
F575?6889& JH8J;885A& <45& ?5`H;?5G57<:& B6:5A& >7& ;7<5?76<;>768&
?5C>GG57A6<;>7:N&%45&677H68&6S5?6F5&6S6;86B;8;<9&;7A;C6<>?&
>J&<45&:9:<5G&?56C45A&aaNad&=5?&C57<&86:<&956?D&;7A;C6<;7F&6&
JH?<45?&;G=?>S5G57<&C>G=6?5A&<>&=?5S;>H:&956?:N
;4)* ,%)%)2* B)&)* 0"%2)-* '/* (+,%+-+./* "1-* $3)&".+19*
3&$'()62*"&+2+19*+1*MGK:*%45&67689:;:&>J&<45&8;`H;A;<9&?;:X&
;7& )+-& :4>@5A& <46<& <45& =6?<;5:& F575?6889& @>H8A& 46S5& 46A&
:HJJ;C;57<& J?55& n;N5N& =85AF56B85p& 58;F;B85& C>886<5?68& ;7& <45;?&
B6867C5& :455<:D& 67A& :>G5& >J& <45G& 68:>& =86C5A& >S5?7;F4<&
C57<?68& B67X& A5=>:;<& n@4;C4D& ;7& C>7<?6:<& <>& h)."!D& ;:& 7><&
;7C8HA5A& ;7& 6S6;86B85& 8;`H;A;<9& ;7& )+-pN& *8<4>HF4D& `H5H5:&
C>H8A& 46S5& B557& 6S>;A5A& @;<4& G>?5& C6H<;>H:& 8;`H;A;<9&
G676F5G57<& n5NFN& =85AF;7F& JH?<45?& 58;F;B85& :5CH?;<;5:& <>&
;7C?56:5& <45& C?5A;<& 8;75:& >?& H:;7F& 6S5?6F;7F& G>?5& @457&
JH8J;88;7F& ?5:5?S5& ?5`H;?5G57<:pD& >H?& 67689:;:& :HFF5:<:& <46<&
<45&;7<5?768&C>7A;<;>7:&G6X;7F&;<&=>::;B85&<>&<6X5&<45&6C<;>7:&
6B>S5&n:HJJ;C;57<&J8>@&>J&;7J>?G6<;>7&B5<@557&>?F67;:6<;>768&
H7;<:p& 6?5& 7><& 75C5::6?;89& F;S57N& )7& 6AA;<;>7D& <45& 67689:;:&
68:>&5:<6B8;:45A&<46<&?H77;7F&;7<>&`H5H5:&n6::HG;7F&<46<&;<&
C67&B5&:5<<85A&;7&h)."!&J?>G&<45&?5=69G57<&>J&<45&>S5?7;F4<&
C57<?68& B67X& A5=>:;<& AH?;7F& <45& A69<;G5& C856?;7F& C9C85p&
:>G5<;G5:& =?>S5A& <>& B5& 6& yC456=5?z& 68<5?76<;S5& J>?& )+-&
=6?<;C;=67<:&<467&6CCHGH86<;7F&?5:5?S5&:H?=8H:5:&>?&=69;7F&
<45&<?67:6C<;>7&67A&86B>H?&C>:<:&>J&6AA;<;>768&=85AF;7FN&%45&
A6<6& :HFF5:<& <46<& `H5H5:& G>:<89& >CCH?& 6?>H7A& 4>8;A69:D& ;7&
<45&G>7<4:&>J&*=?;8&67A&I5C5GB5?D&;G=89;7F&<46<&>=5?6<;>768&
?;:X&;7C?56:5:&;7&<45:5&=5?;>A:&n=?5:HG6B89&AH5&<>&856S5:pN&
;4)*MGK*'"2+0"((/*%2)2*.4)*"#"+("'()*+1.&"-"/*(+,%+-+./*
$5*fMI<>:*%45&8;`H;A;<9&;7&)+-D&C856?;7F&85::&<467&32&=5?&C57<& L1*W*c"1%"&/*PQQR8*.4)*0)1.&"(*0$%1.)&3"&./*5%10.+$1*
>J&h)."!&<H?7>S5?D&@6:&6G=85&;7&122a&6:&@588N&%45&?6<;>&>J& 0"&&/+19* .4)* 0&)-+.* &+27* B"2* 2)3"&".)-* 5&$6* .4)*
70
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
!)-M-&$(&%R"&()'*'+)*,&)'%"!E"I)*!/&-/-%"E
0)1.&"(*2)0%&+.+)2*-)3$2+.$&/*"0.+#+./:&%45&C>7:>8;A6<;>7&
>J& G6?X5<& C>7A;<;>7:& C>H8A& B5& :557& ;7& <45& :5CH?;<;5:&
C856?;7F&67A&:5<<85G57<&:9:<5G&6:&@588N&%45&A5S58>=G57<&>J&
<45& :5<<85G57<& J6;8:b<>b<H?7>S5?& ?6<;>& C68CH86<5A& J>?&
FH6?67<55A&G6?X5<:&:4>@5A&6&:4;J<&;7&6&=>:;<;S5&A;?5C<;>7N&
%45&J6;8:&;7&122a&@5?5&6<<?;BH<5A&<>&<5C47;C68&C6H:5:&nJ68:5&
<?67:6C<;>7:D&5??>75>H:&>?A5?:p&67A&A58695A&:5<<85G57<&>J&
86?F5& CH:<>A;67& CH:<>G5?:N& %45& 4;F4& =?;C5& J8HC<H6<;>7:&
5_=5?;57C5A& ;7& 122d& >CCH??5A& >789& :=>?6A;C6889& ;7& 122aD&
67A&<45:5&6?5&7><&;7&A;?5C<&C>775C<;>7&@;<4&<45&C?;:;:N&%45&
:9:<5G& :<;88& =?>S5A& <>& B5& ?>BH:<& 6F6;7:<& >CC6:;>768& 4;F4&
=?;C5&J8HC<H6<;>7:N
45
;4)* "#"+("'+(+./* $5* .4)* 0$&)* 2)0%&+.+)2* 0()"&+19* "1-*
2)..()6)1.* 2)&#+0)2^Y* +63&$#)-* +1* PQQR* 0$63"&)-* .$*
PQQ\:&E6O>?&>=5?6<;>768&=?>B85G:&6?5&?6?5f&<45&7HGB5?&>J&
;7C;A57<:&86:<;7F&G>?5&<467&32&G;7H<5:&:4>@5A&6&A5C8;7;7F&
<?57Af& 67A& 6:& 6& ?5:H8<D& <45& 6S6;86B;8;<9& >J& <45& :5CH?;<;5:&
C856?;7F&67A&:5<<85G57<&:9:<5G&;:&6CC5=<6B85&J?>G&<45&=>;7<&
>J&S;5@&>J&J;767C;68&:<6B;8;<9N&)7&122aD&<45&E'.&=H?:H5A&<45&
C>G=?5457:;S5& >S5?:;F4<& 6::5::G57<& >J& <45& :5CH?;<;5:&
C856?;7F&67A&:5<<85G57<&:9:<5G&>=5?6<5A&B9&M","!&W?<N&67A&
M","!& M-W(& MJ<N& 67A& ?5856:5A& ?5C>GG57A6<;>7:& J>?& <45&
>=5?6<>?:D&?586<;7F&<>&>=5?6<;>768&?;:X&G676F5G57<D&67A&<45&
:<?5::&<5:<;7F&G5<4>A>8>F9&6:&@588&6:&5JJ;C;57C9N
Gross, multinet and derivative clearing and settlement.
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
71
*4438D:GH
A;<65I46JD387:;=':8D:<;756>
:!!M1NHO8*-:PQR@!QSNM1TH:U*H1NHP:TRQ<
1 Risk appetite
Chart 1
Chart 2
Primary risk indicators
Implied volatility of the primary markets
.6:;:&=>;7<
3Dg22
3D122
3D322
3D222
a22
d22
o22
^22
j22
e22
g22
122
322
2
g^2
g12
1d2
1e2
122
3^2
312
d2
e2
2
.6:;:&=>;7<
E$h"&)7A5_&
T#E&"E.)&Q8>B68
T#E&E6FF;5&R;F4&/;58A
T#E&E6FF;5&*&
.6:;:&=>;7<
a2
d2
o2
^2
j2
e2
g2
12
32
2
T67N&2j
(5BN&2j
*=?N&2j
TH75&2j
TH89&2j
-5=N&j2
'>SN&2j
I5CN&2j
(5BN&2^
E6?N&2^
E69&2^
TH89&2^
*HFN&2^
$C<N&2^
I5CN&2^
T67N&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH75&2o
*HFN&2o
$C<N&2o
'>SN&2o
T67N&2d
E6?N&2d
E69&2d
TH75&2d
*HFN&2d
$C<N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
E6?N&2a
E69&2a
TH75&2a
*HFN&2a
$C<N&2a
'>SN&2a
T67N&32
E6?N&32
.6:;:&=>;7<
T67N&2j
(5BN&2j
*=?N&2j
TH75&2j
*HFN&2j
$C<N&2j
T67N&2^
E6?N&2^
TH75&2^
*HFN&2^
$C<N&2^
I5CN&2^
(5BN&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH89&2o
-5=N&2o
'>SN&2o
I5CN&2o
(5BN&2d
*=?N&2d
E69&2d
TH89&2d
*HFN&2d
$C<N&2d
I5CN&2d
(5BN&2a
*=?N&2a
E69&2a
TH89&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
T67N&32
E6?N&32
3Dg22
3D122
3D322
3D222
a22
d22
o22
^22
j22
e22
g22
122
322
2
h)i&)7A5_&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
G726%,W'N$)$()6,$01'>&770*,649
G726%,W'N$)$()6,$01'oT';764$#9
Chart 3
Dresdner Kleinwort indicator
&
T67N&2j
(5BN&2j
*=?N&2j
TH75&2j
TH89&2j
-5=N&2j
'>SN&2j
I5CN&2j
(5BN&2^
E6?N&2^
E69&2^
TH89&2^
*HFN&2^
$C<N&2^
I5CN&2^
T67N&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH75&2o
*HFN&2o
$C<N&2o
'>SN&2o
T67N&2d
E6?N&2d
*=?N&2d
TH75&2d
*HFN&2d
-5=N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
(5BN&2a
*=?N&2a
TH75&2a
TH89&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
I5CN&2a
(5BN&32
3^
3e
31
32
d
^
e
1
2
m1
me
m^
*!#)1
3^
3e
31
32
d
^
e
1
2
m1
me
m^
*!#)1&n<?57Ap
G726%,W'N6]P9
2 External balance and vulnerability
Chart 4
Chart 5
Net financing capacity of the main sectors and
external equilibrium as percentage of GDP
External financing requirement and its financing as
percentage of GDP
#5?&C57<
21&q3
21&q1
21&qg
21&qe
2g&q3
2g&q1
2g&qg
2g&qe
2e&q3
2e&q1
2e&qg
2e&qe
2j&q3
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
32
d
^
e
1
2
m1
me
m^
md
m32
m31
#5?&C57<
Q575?68&F>S5?7G57<u
+>?=>?6<5&:5C<>?&67A&
y5??>?zuu
R>H:54>8A&:5C<>?
"_<5?768&J;767C;7F&
?5`H;?5G57<uuu
32
d
^
e
1
2
m1
me
m^
md
m32
m31
12 #5?&C57<
3j
32
j
2
mj
m32
m3j
#5?&C57<
21&q3
21&q1
21&qg
21&qe
2g&q3
2g&q1
2g&qg
2g&qe
2e&q3
2e&q1
2e&qg
2e&qe
2j&q3
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
X(,$(7#$&&+'$3@2(),3Z
I5B<&F575?6<;7F&J;767C;7F
'5<&5??>?:&67A&>G;::;>7:&
n'"$p
12
3j
32
j
2
mj
m32
m3j
'>7bA5B<&F575?6<;7F&
J;767C;7F
"_<5?768&J;767C;7F&
?5`H;?5G57<
G726%,W';<>9
G726%,W';<>9
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
75
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
Chart 6
Chart 7
Net external debt as percentage of GDP
Open FX position of the main sectors as percentage
of GDP
#5?&C57<
21&q3
21&q1
21&qg
21&qe
2g&q3
2g&q1
2g&qg
2g&qe
2e&q3
2e&q1
2e&qg
2e&qe
2j&q3
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
o2
^2
j2
e2
g2
12
32
2
.67X;7F&:5C<>?
Q575?68&F>S5?7G57<
+>?=>?6<5&:5C<>?
'5<&5_<5?768&A5B<
^j
^2
jj
j2
ej
e2
gj
g2
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
mj
m32
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
22&q3
22&q1
22&qg
22&qe
23&q3
23&q1
23&qg
23&qe
21&q3
21&q1
21&qg
21&qe
2g&q3
2g&q1
2g&qg
2g&qe
2e&q3
2e&q1
2e&qg
2e&qe
2j&q3
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
#5?&C57<
o2
^2
j2
e2
g2
12
32
2
R>H:54>8A&:5C<>?
Q575?68&F>S5?7G57<
'5<&5_<5?768&A5B<
G726%,W';<>9
^j
^2
jj
j2
ej
e2
gj
g2
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
mj
m32
+>?=>?6<5&:5C<>?
'>7b?5:;A57<:
G726%,W';<>9
3 Macroeconomic performance
Chart 8
Chart 9
GDP growth and its main components
Employment rate and net wage developments
X$##2$&'467-).'6$),Z
g1
1d
1e
12
3^
31
d
e
2
me
md
m31
m3^
m12
m1e
3^
3e
31
32
d
^
e
1
2
m1
me
m^
'5<&?568&@6F5:
R>H:54>8A&J;768&C>7:HG=<;>7&5_=57A;<H?5
Q?>::&J;_5A&C6=;<68&J>?G6<?;>7
%><68&QI#
"_=>?<
)G=>?<
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
21&q3
21&q1
21&qg
21&qe
2g&q3
2g&q1
2g&qg
2g&qe
2e&q3
2e&q1
2e&qg
2e&qe
2j&q3
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
#5?&C57<
a^&q3
a^&qg
ao&q3
ao&qg
ad&q3
ad&qg
aa&q3
aa&qg
22&q3
22&qg
23&q3
23&qg
21&q3
21&qg
2g&q3
2g&qg
2e&q3
2e&qg
2j&q3
2j&qg
2^&q3
2^&qg
2o&q3
2o&qg
2d&q3
2d&qg
2a&q3
2a&qg
g1
1d
1e
12
3^
31
d
e
2
me
md
m31
m3^
m12
m1e
X$##2$&'467-).'6$),Z
#5?&C57<
j1N2
j3Nj
j3N2
j2Nj
j2N2
eaNj
eaN2
edNj
edN2
eoNj
eoN2
e^Nj
"G=8>9G57<&?6<5&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
G726%,W'FBGY9
G726%,W'FBGY9
Chart 10
Chart 11
Use of household income as a ratio of disposable
income
Corporate real unit labour cost in the private sector
+>7:HG=<;>7
)7S5:<G57<&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
'5<&J;767C;68&:6S;7F&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
G726%,W'FBGY1';<>9'
76
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
X$##2$&'467-).'6$),Z
3d
3^
3e
31
32
d
^
e
1
2
m1
g2
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
mj
m32
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
aa&q3
aa&qg
22&q3
22&qg
23&q3
23&qg
21&q3
21&qg
2g&q3
2g&qg
2e&q3
2e&qg
2j&q3
2j&qg
2^&q3
2^&qg
2o&q3
2o&qg
2d&q3
2d&qg
2a&q3
2a&qg
#5?&C57<
aj&q3
aj&qg
a^&q3
a^&qg
ao&q3
ao&qg
ad&q3
ad&qg
aa&q3
aa&qg
22&q3
22&qg
23&q3
23&qg
21&q3
21&qg
2g&q3
2g&qg
2e&q3
2e&qg
2j&q3
2j&qg
2^&q3
2^&qg
2o&q3
2o&qg
2d&q3
2d&qg
2a&q3
2a&qg
a1
a2
dd
d^
de
d1
d2
od
o^
oe
o1
#5?&C57<
E67HJ6C<H?;7F
G726%,W'FBGY1';<>9
#?;S6<5&:5C<>?
E6?X5<&:5?S;C5:
g2
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
mj
m32
Chart 12
Sectoral bankruptcy rates
#5?&C57<
a
d
o
^
j
e
g
1
3
2
a^&q3
a^&qg
ao&q3
ao&qg
ad&q3
ad&qg
aa&q3
aa&qg
22&q3
22&qg
23&q3
23&qg
21&q3
21&qg
2g&q3
2g&qg
2e&q3
2e&qg
2j&q3
2j&qg
2^&q3
2^&qg
2o&q3
2o&qg
2d&q3
2d&qg
2a&q3
2a&qg
a #5?&C57<
d
o
^
j
e
g
1
3
2
+>7:<?HC<;>7
*F?;CH8<H?5
!568&5:<6<5&67A&5C>7>G;C&:5?S;C5:
E67HJ6C<H?;7F
-5?S;C5:&><45?&<467&?568&5:<6<5&67A&5C>7>G;C&:5?S;C5:
G726%,W'Y8),#1'FBGY1';<>9
4 Monetary and financial conditions
Chart 13
Chart 14
Long-term default risk and forward premium of
Hungary
Three-month EUR, USD, CHF and HUF money market
interest rates (LIBOR and BUBOR fixing)
.6:;:&=>;7<
o22
^22
j22
e22
g22
122
322
2
3e
31
32
d
^
e
1
2
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
T67N&2j
*=?N&2j
*HFN&2j
$C<N&2j
T67N&2^
*=?N&2^
TH89&2^
$C<N&2^
(5BN&2o
TH75&2o
*HFN&2o
'>SN&2o
(5BN&2d
E69&2d
*HFN&2d
I5CN&2d
*=?N&2a
*HFN&2a
I5CN&2a
.6:;:&=>;7<
T67N&2^
(5BN&2^
*=?N&2^
TH75&2^
TH89&2^
-5=N&2^
'>SN&2^
T67N&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH75&2o
*HFN&2o
$C<N&2o
I5CN&2o
(5BN&2d
E6?N&2d
E69&2d
TH89&2d
-5=N&2d
$C<N&2d
I5CN&2d
T67N&2a
E6?N&2a
E69&2a
TH89&2a
*HFN&2a
$C<N&2a
'>SN&2a
T67N&32
E6?N&32
o22
^22
j22
e22
g22
122
322
2
gbG>7<4&"V!
gbG>7<4&RV(
juj&J>?@6?A&9;58A&=?5G;HG
j&956?&+I-&=?;C5&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
3e
31
32
d
^
e
1
2
gbG>7<4&V-I
gbG>7<4&+R(
G726%,W'H,2),6(9
G726%,W'N$)$()6,$01'H,2),6(9
Chart 15
Chart 16
HUF/EUR, HUF/USD and HUF/CHF exchange rates
compared to January 3, 2005
Volatility of the HUF/EUR exchange rate
RV(l+R(
G726%,W'H,2),6(9
RV(l"V!
RV(lV-I
^2
e2
g2
12
32
2
m32
m12
mg2
me2
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
^2
j2
j2
e2
e2
g2
g2
12
12
32
32
2
2
T67N&2^
(5BN&2^
*=?N&2^
TH75&2^
*HFN&2^
$C<N&2^
I5CN&2^
E6?N&2o
TH75&2o
*HFN&2o
$C<N&2o
I5CN&2o
(5BN&2d
E6?N&2d
E69&2d
TH89&2d
-5=N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
(5BN&2a
*=?N&2a
TH75&2a
*HFN&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
I5CN&2a
(5BN&32
#5?&C57<
T67N&2^
(5BN&2^
*=?N&2^
TH75&2^
TH89&2^
-5=N&2^
'>SN&2^
T67N&2o
(5BN&2o
*=?N&2o
TH75&2o
TH89&2o
-5=N&2o
'>SN&2o
T67N&2d
G6?N&2d
*=?N&2d
TH75&2d
*HFN&2d
-5=N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
(5BN&2a
*=?N&2a
TH75&2a
TH89&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
I5CN&2a
(5BN&32
e2
g2
12
32
2
m32
m12
mg2
me2
#5?&C57<
)G=8;5A&S>86<;8;<9
R;:<>?;C&S>86<;8;<9
G726%,W'H,2),6(1';<>9
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
77
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
Chart 17
Chart 18
Interest rate premium of new loans to non-financial
enterprises
Interest rate premium of new HUF loans to
households
.6:;:&=>;7<
T67N&2o
(5BN&2o
E6?N&2o
*=?N&2o
E69&2o
TH75&2o
TH89&2o
*HFN&2o
-5=N&2o
$C<N&2o
'>SN&2o
I5CN&2o
T67N&2d
(5BN&2d
E6?N&2d
*=?N&2d
E69&2d
TH75&2d
TH89&2d
*HFN&2d
-5=N&2d
$C<N&2d
'>SN&2d
I5CN&2d
T67N&2a
(5BN&2a
E6?N&2a
*=?N&2a
E69&2a
TH75&2a
TH89&2a
*HFN&2a
-5=N&2a
$C<N&2a
'>SN&2a
I5CN&2a
T67N&32
ej2
e22
gj2
g22
1j2
122
3j2
322
j2
2
.6:;:&=>;7<
ej2
e22
gj2
g22
1j2
122
3j2
322
j2
2
X7A,6'VE07#).'>D>YHZ
a
d
o
^
j
e
g
1
3
2
#5?C57<6F5&=>;7<
R>H:;7F&8>67
RV(&8>67:&H=&<>&3&G;88;>7&"V!
RV(&8>67:&>S5?&3&G;88;>7&"V!
"V!&8>67:&H=&<>&3&G;88;>7&"V!
"V!&8>67:&>S5?&3&G;88;>7&"V!
#5?C57<6F5&=>;7<
T67N&2j
E6?N&2j
E69&2j
TH89&2j
-5=N&2j
'>SN&2j
T67N&2^
E6?N&2^
E69&2^
TH89&2^
-5=N&2^
'>SN&2^
T67N&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH89&2o
-5=N&2o
'>SN&2o
T67N&2d
E6?N&2d
E69&2d
TH89&2d
-5=N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
E6?N&2a
E69&2a
TH89&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
X7A,6' VE07#).' >D>YH' $#3' RDHI>YH1' 6,(8,%)"A,&+1' VE07#).' 07A"#4'
$A,6$4,Z
1o
1e
13
3d
3j
31
a
^
g
2
#5?:>768&8>67&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
G726%,W';<>9
G726%,W';<>9
Chart 19
Interest rate premium of new CHF loans to
households
X7A,6'VE07#).'BF!'_I>YHZ
#5?C57<6F5&=>;7<
#5?C57<6F5&=>;7<
T67N&2d
(5BN&2d
E6?N&2d
*=?N&2d
E69&2d
TH75&2d
TH89&2d
*HFN&2d
-5=N&2d
$C<N&2d
'>SN&2d
I5CN&2d
T67N&2a
(5BN&2a
E6?N&2a
*=?N&2a
E69&2a
TH75&2a
TH89&2a
*HFN&2a
-5=N&2a
$C<N&2a
'>SN&2a
I5CN&2a
31
32
d
^
e
1
2
#5?:>768&8>67&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
R>G5&5`H;<9
1e
12
3^
31
d
e
2
R>H:;7F&8>67
G726%,W';<>9
5 Prices of instruments
Chart 21
Real home prices
#5?&C57<
22&q1
22&qg
22&qe
23&q3
23&q1
23&qg
23&qe
21&q3
21&q1
21&qg
21&qe
2g&q3
2g&q1
2g&qg
2g&qe
2e&q3
2e&q1
2e&qg
2e&qe
2j&q3
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
11j
12j
3dj
3^j
3ej
31j
32j
dj
#5?&C57<
!568&4>H:5&=?;C5&n1222&s322rp
11j
12j
3dj
3^j
3ej
31j
32j
dj
Annualised yields on government securities’ indices
and money markets
e2
#5?&C57<
78
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
e2
g2
g2
12
12
32
32
2
2
m32
m32
m12
m12
!E*i
G726%,W'!F>9
#5?&C57<
T67N&2e
E6?N&2e
E69&2e
TH89&2e
-5=N&2e
'>SN&2e
T67N&2j
E6?N&2j
E69&2j
TH89&2j
-5=N&2j
'>SN&2j
T67N&2^
E6?N&2^
E69&2^
TH89&2^
-5=N&2^
'>SN&2^
T67N&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH89&2o
-5=N&2o
'>SN&2o
T67N&2d
E6?N&2d
E69&2d
TH89&2d
-5=N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
E6?N&2a
E69&2a
TH89&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
T67N&32
E6?N&32
Chart 20
.V.$!&n3&@55Xp
G726%,W'd]]1'876)/7&"79.21';<>9
E*i
Chart 22
Annual yield of key Hungarian and Central and
Eastern European stock market indices
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
3^2
3e2
312
322
d2
^2
e2
12
2
m12
me2
m^2
md2
E69&2j
TH89&2j
-5=N&2j
'>SN&2j
T67N&2^
E6?N&2^
E69&2^
TH89&2^
-5=N&2^
'>SN&2^
T67N&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH89&2o
-5=N&2o
'>SN&2o
T67N&2d
E6?N&2d
E69&2d
TH89&2d
-5=N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
E6?N&2a
E69&2a
TH89&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
T67N&32
3^2
3e2
312
322
d2
^2
e2
12
2
m12
me2
m^2
md2
.VE)i
+"%$#
.Vi
G726%,W'>GR1'876)/7&"79.29
6 Risks of the financial intermediary system
Chart 23
Chart 24
Indebtedness of non-financial enterprises as a
percentage of GDP
Denomination structure of domestic bank loans of
non-financial enterprises
#5?&C57<
aj
a2
dj
d2
oj
o2
^j
^2
jj
j2
ej
e2
gj
g2
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
aD222
,>67:&J?>G&6B?>6A
(i&8>67:
.7&RV(
oD222
jD222
gD222
3D222
m3D222
I>G5:<;C&8>67:
,>67:D&"H?>&6?56
+R(
G726%,W'R267()$)1';<>9
#5?&C57<
T67N&22
*HFN&22
E6?N&23
$C<N&23
E69&21
I5CN&21
TH89&2g
(5BN&2e
-5=N&2e
*=?N&2j
'>SN&2j
TH75&2^
T67N&2o
*HFN&2o
E6?N&2d
$C<N&2d
E69&2a
I5CN&2a
#5?&C57<
23&q3
23&q1
23&qg
23&qe
21&q3
21&q1
21&qg
21&qe
2g&q3
2g&q1
2g&qg
2g&qe
2e&q3
2e&q1
2e&qg
2e&qe
2j&q3
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
aj
a2
dj
d2
oj
o2
^j
^2
jj
j2
ej
e2
gj
g2
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
"V!
V-I
!6<;>&>J&(i&8>67:&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
RV(
G726%,W';<>9
Chart 25
Chart 26
Annual growth rate of loans provided to
non-financial corporations by domestic banks
Net quarterly change of bank loan volumes of
non-financial enterprises
#5?&C57<&
/56?b>7b956?&F?>@<4&?6<5&>J&8>67:&
n6AOH:<5A&J>?&5_C467F5&?6<5&C467F5:p
/56?b>7b956?&F?>@<4&?6<5&>J&8>67:&n7>G;768p
gj
g2
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
mj
m32
m3j
^22
j22
e22
g22
122
322
2
m322
m122
mg22
.7&RV(
.7&RV(
23&qg
23&qe
21&q3
21&q1
21&qg
21&qe
2g&q3
2g&q1
2g&qg
2g&qe
2e&q3
2e&q1
2e&qg
2e&qe
2j&q3
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
#5?&C57<
TH75&23
I5CN&23
TH75&21
I5CN&21
TH75&2g
I5CN&2g
TH75&2e
I5CN&2e
TH75&2j
I5CN&2j
TH75&2^
I5CN&2^
TH75&2o
I5CN&2o
TH75&2d
I5CN&2d
TH75&2a
I5CN&2a
gj
g2
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
mj
m32
m3j
^^
^1
jd
je
j2
e^
e1
gd
ge
g2
-4>?<b<5?G
,>7Fb<5?G
^22
j22
e22
g22
122
322
2
m322
m122
mg22
'5<&;7C?56:5
G726%,W';<>9
G726%,W';<>9
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
79
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
Chart 27
Chart 28
Quality of the corporate loan portfolio
Provisioning on loans of non-financial corporations
by industry
*F?;CH8<H?5D E67HJ6C<H?;7F
J>?5:<?9
n3arp
nerp
G726%,W';<>9
+>7:<?HC<;>7 %?6A5D&?5=6;?D
n^rp
G6;7<5767C5
n3drp
R><58:&67A
?5:<6H?67<:
ngrp
%?67:=>?<D
8>F;:<;C:D
<585C>G
n^rp
a
d
o
^
j
e
g
1
3
2
!568&5:<6<5&67A '>7bJ;767C;68
5C>7>G;C
C>?=>?6<;>7:
:5?S;C5:
n1d&rp
G726%,W';<>9
Chart 29
Chart 30
Indebtedness of households in international
comparison
Debt service burden of the household sector
o2
^2
j2
e2
g2
12
32
2
R>H:54>8A:]&J;767C;68&8;6B;8;<;5:&<>&J;767C;68&6::5<:
R>H:54>8A:}&J;767C;68&8;6B;8;<;5:&<>&J;767C;68&6::5<:&m&5H?>&6?56
R>H:54>8A:&8>67&<>&QI#
R>H:54>8A:&8>67&<>&QI#&m&5H?>&6?56
3e
31
32
d
^
e
1
2
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
21&q3
21&q1
21&qg
21&qe
2g&q3
2g&q1
2g&qg
2g&qe
2e&q3
2e&q1
2e&qg
2e&qe
2j&q3
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
21&q3
21&q1
21&qg
21&qe
2g&q3
2g&q1
2g&qg
2g&qe
2e&q3
2e&q1
2e&qg
2e&qe
2j&q3
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
o2
^2
j2
e2
g2
12
32
2
I5CN&2j
I5CN&2^
I5CN&2o
I5CN&2d
E6?N&2a
TH75&2a
-5=N&2a
I5CN&2a
I5CN&2j
I5CN&2^
I5CN&2o
I5CN&2d
E6?N&2a
TH75&2a
-5=N&2a
I5CN&2a
I5CN&2j
I5CN&2^
I5CN&2o
I5CN&2d
E6?N&2a
TH75&2a
-5=N&2a
I5CN&2a
#5?&C57<
I5CN&2j
I5CN&2^
I5CN&2o
I5CN&2d
E6?N&2a
TH75&2a
-5=N&2a
I5CN&2a
#5?&C57<
I5CN&2j
I5CN&2^
I5CN&2o
I5CN&2d
E6?N&2a
TH75&2a
-5=N&2a
I5CN&2a
,>67&>S5?AH5&G>?5&<467&a2&A69:&<>&<><68&4>H:54>8A&8>67:
+>:<&>J&=?>S;:;>7;7F&<>&<><68&C>?=>?6<5&8>67:&
n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
a
d
o
^
j
e
g
1
3
2
I5CN&2j
I5CN&2^
I5CN&2o
I5CN&2d
E6?N&2a
TH75&2a
-5=N&2a
I5CN&2a
1Noj
1Nj2
1N1j
1N22
3Noj
3Nj2
3N1j
3N22
2Noj
2Nj2
2N1j
2N22
I5CN&2j
I5CN&2^
I5CN&2o
I5CN&2d
E6?N&2a
TH75&2a
-5=N&2a
I5CN&2a
#5?&C57<
I5CN&2j
I5CN&2^
I5CN&2o
I5CN&2d
E6?N&2a
TH75&2a
-5=N&2a
I5CN&2a
#5?&C57<
2g&q3
2g&q1
2g&qg
2g&qe
2e&q3
2e&q1
2e&qg
2e&qe
2j&q3
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
33
32
a
d
o
^
j
e
g
1
3
2
3e
31
32
d
^
e
1
2
)7<5?5:<&=69G57<lA;:=>:6B85&;7C>G5
#?;7C;=68&=69G57<lA;:=>:6B85&;7C>G5
G726%,W';<>9
G726%,W'RB>1';<>9
Chart 31
Chart 32
Annual growth rate of total household loans
Net quarterly change of bank loan volumes of
households by main products and currencies,
adjusted for exchange rate changes, seasonally
adjusted
#5?&C57< a2
d2
o2
^2
j2
e2
g2
12
32
2
m32
/56?b>7b956?&F?>@<4&?6<5&>J&8>67:&n5_C467F5&?6<5&6AOH:<5Ap
/56?b>7b956?&F?>@<4&?6<5&>J&8>67:&n7>G;768p
G726%,W';<>9
e22
gj2
g22
1j2
122
3j2
322
j2
2
mj2
m322
m3j2
.7&RV(
(i&C>7:HG5?&8>67:
RV(&C>7:HG5?&8>67:
'5<&J8>@
G726%,W';<>9
80
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
.7&RV(
21&q3
21&q1
21&qg
21&qe
2g&q3
2g&q1
2g&qg
2g&qe
2e&q3
2e&q1
2e&qg
2e&qe
2j&q3
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
#5?&C57<
2g&q3
2g&q1
2g&qg
2g&qe
2e&q3
2e&q1
2e&qg
2e&qe
2j&q3
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
a2
d2
o2
^2
j2
e2
g2
12
32
2
(i&4>H:;7F&8>67:
RV(&4>H:;7F&8>67:
e22
gj2
g22
1j2
122
3j2
322
j2
2
mj2
m322
m3j2
Chart 33
Chart 34
Household loans distribution by denomination
Household loans distribution by collateral
d2
o2
^2
j2
e2
g2
12
32
2
(i&8>67:
RV(&A57>G;76<5A&8>67:
(i&8>67:&<>&<><68&8>67:&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
33D222
32D222
aD222
dD222
oD222
^D222
jD222
eD222
gD222
1D222
3D222
2
G726%,W';<>9
.7&RV(
#5?&C57<
2j&q3
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
#5?&C57<
.7&RV(
21&q3
21&q1
21&qg
21&qe
2g&q3
2g&q1
2g&qg
2g&qe
2e&q3
2e&q1
2e&qg
2e&qe
2j&q3
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
dD222
oD222
^D222
jD222
eD222
gD222
1D222
3D222
2
o1
o2
^d
^^
^e
^1
^2
jd
j^
je
j1
j2
,>67:&@;<4&G>?<F6F5&C>886<5?68
,>67:&@;<4&S5C4;C85&C>886<5?68
,>67:&@;<4>H<&C>886<5?68
,>67:&@;<4&G>?<F6F5&C>886<5?68&<>&<><68&4>H:54>8A&
8>67:&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
G726%,W';<>9
Chart 35
Chart 36
Distribution of new housing loans by LTV
Quality of the household loan portfolio
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
322
d2
^2
^2
e2
e2
12
12
2
2
2e&q3
2e&q1
2e&qg
2e&qe
2j&q3
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
d2
o2r&{&,%h
g2r&{&,%h&{&j2r
j2r&{&,%h&{&o2r
2r&{&,%h&{&g2r
G726%,W';<>9
33
32
a
d
o
^
j
e
g
1
3
2
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
21&qe
2g&q3
2g&q1
2g&qg
2g&qe
2e&q3
2e&q1
2e&qg
2e&qe
2j&q3
2j&q1
2j&qg
2j&qe
2^&q3
2^&q1
2^&qg
2^&qe
2o&q3
2o&q1
2o&qg
2o&qe
2d&q3
2d&q1
2d&qg
2d&qe
2a&q3
2a&q1
2a&qg
2a&qe
322
1Noj
1Nj2
1N1j
1N22
3Noj
3Nj2
3N1j
3N22
2Noj
2Nj2
2N1j
2N22
,>67&>S5?AH5&G>?5&<467&a2&A69:&<>&<><68&4>H:54>8A&8>67:
+>:<&>J&=?>S;:;>7;7F&<>&<><68&4>H:54>8A&8>67:&
n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
G726%,W';<>9
Chart 37
Chart 38
Comparison of instalment payments of CHF- and
HUF- denominated housing loans
Provisioning on household loans
R>H:;7F&8>67& R>H:;7F&8>67&
m&RV(
m&(i
$H<:<67A;7F&6G>H7<
2^&qe
2o&qe
2d&qe
2a&qe
2^&qe
2o&qe
2d&qe
2a&qe
2^&qe
2o&qe
2d&qe
2a&qe
R>G5&5`H;<9
m&RV(
R>G5&5`H;<9 +H??57<&6CC>H7<&
m&(i
67A&C?5A;<&
C6?A&8>67
2^&qe
2o&qe
2d&qe
2a&qe
#5?&C57<
.7&RV(
2^&qe
2o&qe
2d&qe
2a&qe
+467F5&;7&G>7<489&=69G57<&<>&;7;<;68&;7:<688G57<&
J>?&+R(bA57>G;76<5A&4>H:;7F&8>67:
+467F5&;7&G>7<489&=69G57<&<>&;7;<;68&;7:<688G57<&
J>?&RV(bA57>G;76<5A&4>H:;7F&8>67:
I;JJ5?57C5&;7&G>7<489&=69G57<&B5<@557&
RV(b&67A&+R(bA57>G;76<5A&8>67:
12D222
3^D222
31D222
dD222
eD222
2
meD222
mdD222
m31D222
m3^D222
gD222
1Dd22
1D^22
1De22
1D122
1D222
3Dd22
3D^22
3De22
3D122
3D222
d22
^22
e22
122
2
2^&qe
2o&qe
2d&qe
2a&qe
RV(
T67N&2j
E6?N&2j
E69&2j
TH89&2j
-5=N&2j
'>SN&2j
T67N&2^
E6?N&2^
E69&2^
TH89&2^
-5=N&2^
'>SN&2^
T67N&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH89&2o
-5=N&2o
'>SN&2o
T67N&2d
E6?N&2d
E69&2d
TH89&2d
-5=N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
E6?N&2a
E69&2a
TH89&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
12D222
3^D222
31D222
dD222
eD222
2
meD222
mdD222
m31D222
m3^D222
RV(
3^
3j
3e
3g
31
33
32
a
d
o
^
j
e
g
1
3
2
h5C4;C85&
8>67
#?>S;:;>7&<>&>H<:<67A;7F&6G>H7<&
n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
G726%,W';<>9
G726%,W';<>9
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
81
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
Chart 39
Chart 40
Open FX position of the domestic banking system
Banking sector's exchange rate exposure
.7&RV(
.7&RV(
T67N&2e
E69&2e
-5=N&2e
T67N&2j
E69&2j
-5=N&2j
T67N&2^
E69&2^
-5=N&2^
T67N&2o
E69&2o
-5=N&2o
T67N&2d
E69&2d
-5=N&2d
T67N&2a
E69&2a
-5=N&2a
T67N&32
jDj22
jD222
eDj22
eD222
gDj22
gD222
1Dj22
1D222
3Dj22
3D222
j22
2
mj22
m3D222
jDj22
jD222
eDj22
eD222
gDj22
gD222
1Dj22
1D222
3Dj22
3D222
j22
2
mj22
m3D222
3j
32
j
2
mj
m32
m3j
m12
m1j
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
.67X:&@;<4&:4>?<&
.67X:&@;<4&8>7F&
<><68&(i&=>:;<;>7
<><68&(i&=>:;<;>7
%><68&>=57&(i&=>:;<;>7&<>&>@7&JH7A:
I5CN&2^
TH75&2a
%><68&>=57&(i&=>:;<;>7
'>7b?5:;A57<:]&75<&(i&:@6=:
$7bB6867C5&(i&=>:;<;>7
$7bB6867C5&(i&=>:;<;>7&6AOH:<5A&@;<4&7>7b?5:;A57<:]&
75<&(i&:@6=:
I5CN&2o
I5CN&2d
-5=N&2a
3j
32
j
2
mj
m32
m3j
m12
m1j
E6?N&2a
I5CN&2a
G726%,W';<>9
G726%,W';<>9
Chart 41
Chart 42
90-day re-pricing gap of the banking sector
Estimated maximum loss based on interest rate risk
stress tests relative to equity
2
2
mj
mj
m32
m32
m3j
c4;<>H<
6AOH:G57<
*AOH:<5A&
@;<4
:;F4<&A5=>:;<:
c4;<>H<
6AOH:G57<
RV(
I5CN&2e
I5CN&2d
*AOH:<5A&
@;<4
:;F4<&A5=>:;<:
c4;<>H<
6AOH:G57<
c4;<>H<
6AOH:G57<
V-I
+R(
"V!
I5CN&2j
I5CN&2^
m3j
e
g
1
3
2
m3
m1
mg
me
mj
m^
mo
md
ma
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
RV(
I5CN&2j
E6?N&2a
I5CN&2o
I5CN&2a
"V!
I5CN&2^
TH75&2a
V-I
I5CN&2o
-5=N&2a
G726%,W';<>9
G726%,W';<>9
Chart 43
Chart 44
Liquidity index
Liquidity sub-indices
X,M87#,#)"$&&+'-,"4.),3'07A"#4'$A,6$4,Z
X,M87#,#)"$&&+'-,"4.),3'07A"#4'$A,6$4,Z
me
mj
mj
,;`H;A;<9&;7A5_&n5_=>757<;6889&@5;F4<5A&G>S;7F&6S5?6F5p
G726%,W';<>1'],&,61'H,2),6(1'N6]P9
md
md
m31
m31
$C<N&2d
mg
me
me
TH89&2d
mg
me
*=?N&2d
m1
2
(5BN&2d
m1
2
'>SN&2o
m3
*HFN&2o
m3
TH75&2o
2
e
E6?N&2o
2
.;Ab6:X&:=?56A&;7A5_
!5<H?7&<>&S>8HG5&;7A5_
'HGB5?&>J&<?67:6C<;>7:&;7A5_
%?67:6C<;>7&:;[5&;7A5_
G726%,W';<>1'],&,61'H,2),6(1'N6]P9
82
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
e
g
1
3
2
m3
m1
mg
me
mj
m^
mo
md
ma
e
O67N&2o
3
T67N&2j
E6?N&2j
E69&2j
TH89&2j
-5=N&2j
'>SN&2j
T67N&2^
E6?N&2^
E69&2^
TH89&2^
-5=N&2^
'>SN&2^
T67N&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH89&2o
-5=N&2o
'>SN&2o
T67N&2d
E6?N&2d
E69&2d
TH89&2d
-5=N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
E6?N&2a
E69&2a
TH89&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
T67N&32
E6?N&32
3
+R(
I5CN&2d
I5CN&2a
T67N&32
j
'>SN&2a
j
*HFN&2a
32
E69&2a
#5?&C57<
E6?N&2a
#5?&C57<
I5CN&2d
32
Chart 45
Chart 46
Bid-ask spread indices of the major domestic
financial markets
Credit to deposit ratio of the banking sector
X$3@2(),3'/76',M%.$#4,'6$),'%.$#4,(Z
j
j
2
mj
m32
m32
m3j
m3j
m12
m12
m1j
m1j
TH75&2o
TH89&2o
*HFN&2o
-5=N&2o
$C<N&2o
'>SN&2o
I5CN&2o
T67N&2o
(5BN&2d
E6?N&2d
*=?N&2d
E69&2d
TH75&2d
TH89&2d
*HFN&2d
-5=N&2d
$C<N&2d
'>SN&2d
I5CN&2d
T67N&2a
(5BN&2a
E6?N&2a
*=?N&2a
E69&2a
TH75&2a
TH89&2a
*HFN&2a
-5=N&2a
$C<N&2a
'>SN&2a
I5CN&2a
T67N&32
(5BN&32
2
mj
V-IlRV(&67A&"V!lRV(&(i&:@6=&G6?X5<
V7:5CH?5A&;7<5?B67X&G>759&G6?X5<
Q>S5?7G57<&B>7A&G6?X5<
"V!lRV(&:=><&(i&G6?X5<
3o2
3^j
3^2
3jj
3j2
3ej
3e2
3gj
3g2
31j
312
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
T67N&2^
E6?N&2^
E69&2^
TH89&2^
-5=N&2^
'>SN&2^
T67N&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH89&2o
-5=N&2o
'>SN&2o
T67N&2d
E6?N&2d
E69&2d
TH89&2d
-5=N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
E6?N&2a
E69&2a
TH89&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
X,M87#,#)"$&&+'-,"4.),3'07A"#4'$A,6$4,Z
3o2
3^j
3^2
3jj
3j2
3ej
3e2
3gj
3g2
31j
312
+?5A;<&<>&A5=>:;<&?6<;>
G726%,W';<>9
G726%,W';<>1'],&,61'H,2),6(1'N6]P9
Chart 48
Chart 47
External funds of the banking sector
I5CN&2a
-5=N&2a
TH75&2a
E6?N&2a
I5CN&2d
-5=N&2d
TH75&2d
E6?N&2d
#5?&C57<
I5CN&2o
.7&RV(
I5CN&2^
31D222
32D222
dD222
^D222
eD222
1D222
2
I5CN&2j
312
33j
332
32j
322
aj
a2
dj
d2
I5CN&2e
2a&qe
2a&qg
2a&q1
2a&q3
2d&qe
2d&qg
2d&q1
2d&q3
2o&qe
2o&qg
2o&q1
2o&q3
2^&qe
#5?&C57<
2^&qg
2^&q1
2^&q3
e2
gj
g2
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
#5?&C57<
I5CN&2g
Liquidity ratios of the banking sector
d2
o2
^2
j2
e2
g2
12
"_<5?768&JH7A:&m&8>7F&<5?G&JH7A;7F
"_<5?768&JH7A:&m&:4>?<&<5?G&JH7A;7F
!6<;>&>J&JH7A:&J?>G&>@75?:&<>&<><68&5_<5?768&JH7A:&
n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
!6<;>&>J&5_<5?768&JH7A:&<>&<><68&JH7A:&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
-<6B85&8;6B8;<;5:&<>&7>7b8;`H;A&6::5:<&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
,;`H;A&6::5<:&<>&<><68&6::5:<:
RV(&8;`H;A&6::5<:&<>&<><68&6::5<:
(H7A;7F&F6=
G726%,W';<>9
G726%,W';<>9
Chart 49
Chart 50
ROA, ROE and real ROE of the banking sector
Dispersion of banks΄ total assets by ROE
G726%,W';<>9
j2
%><68&6::5<:D&=5?&C57<
%><68&6::5<:D&=5?&C57<
j2
|j2r
ejmj2r
e2mejr
2
gjme2r
2
12mgjr
32
1jmg2r
32
12m1jr
12
3jm12r
12
32m3jr
g2
jm32r
g2
2mjr
e2
mjm2r
e2
m32mjr
!$"&n85J<b467A&:C685p
!568&!$"&n85J<b467A&:C685p
!$*&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
gNj
gN2
1Nj
1N2
3Nj
3N2
2Nj
2N2
m3jm32r
#5?&C57<
{m3jr
#5?&C57<
I5CN&2g
E6?N&2e
TH75&2e
-5=N&2e
I5CN&2e
E6?N&2j
TH75&2j
-5=N&2j
I5CN&2j
E6?N&2^
TH75&2^
-5=N&2^
I5CN&2^
E6?N&2o
TH75&2o
-5=N&2o
I5CN&2o
E6?N&2d
TH75&2d
-5=N&2d
I5CN&2d
E6?N&2a
TH75&2a
-5=N&2a
I5CN&2a
gj
g2
1j
12
3j
32
j
2
!$"
I5CN&2^
I5CN&2o
I5CN&2d
I5CN&2a
G726%,W';<>9
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
83
E*Q/*!&'"EW"%)&.*'M
Chart 51
Chart 52
Banking sector spread and its components
Operating efficiency indicators of the banking
sector
#5?&C57< eN2
gNd
gN^
gNe
gN1
gN2
1Nd
1N^
1Ne
1N1
1N2
)7<5?5:<&;7C>G5l6S5?6F5&;7<5?5:<&B56?;7F&6::5<:
&n85J<b467A&:C685p
)7<5?5:<&5_=57A;<H?5:l6S5?6F5&;7<5?5:<&B56?;7F&8;6B;8;<;5:&
n85J<&467A&:C685p
-=?56A&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
gN^
gNe
gN1
gN2
1Nd
1N^
1Ne
1N1
1N2
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
I5CN&2g
E6?N&2e
TH75&2e
-5=N&2e
I5CN&2e
E6?N&2j
TH75&2j
-5=N&2j
I5CN&2j
E6?N&2^
TH75&2^
-5=N&2^
I5CN&2^
E6?N&2o
TH75&2o
-5=N&2o
I5CN&2o
E6?N&2d
TH75&2d
-5=N&2d
I5CN&2d
E6?N&2a
TH75&2a
-5=N&2a
I5CN&2a
#5?&C57<
I5CN&2g
E6?N&2e
TH75&2e
-5=N&2e
I5CN&2e
E6?N&2j
TH75&2j
-5=N&2j
I5CN&2j
E6?N&2^
TH75&2^
-5=N&2^
I5CN&2^
E6?N&2o
TH75&2o
-5=N&2o
I5CN&2o
E6?N&2d
TH75&2d
-5=N&2d
I5CN&2d
E6?N&2a
TH75&2a
-5=N&2a
I5CN&2a
31
32
d
^
e
1
2
m1
me
m^
md
jd
j^
je
j1
j2
ed
e^
ee
e1
+>:<l6S5?6F5&<><68&6::5<&n85J<b467A&:C685p
+>:<l;7C>G5&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
G726%,W';<>9
G726%,W';<>9
Chart 53
Chart 54
Banks΄ capital adequacy ratios
Dispersion of banks΄ minimum capital
requirement by capital adequacy ratio
+?5A;<&?;:X
$=5?6<;>768&?;:X
%;5?&3&C6=;<68&6A5`H6C9&?6<;>
2a&qe
2a&qg
2a&q1
2a&q3
2d&qe
2d&qg
#5?&C57<
2d&q1
#5?&C57<
2d&q3
3e
31
32
d
^
e
1
2
E6?X5<&?;:X
(?55&C6=;<68
G726%,W';<>9
3e
31
32
d
^
e
1
2
o2
#5?&C57<
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
o2
^2
^2
j2
j2
e2
e2
g2
g2
12
12
32
32
2
{dr
E6?N&2d
E6?N&2a
G726%,W';<>9
84
#5?&C57<
dbar
ab32r 32b31r 31b3er
+6=;<68&6A5`H6C9&?6<;>
TH75&2d
-5=N&2d
TH75&2a
-5=N&2a
|3er
I5CN&2d
I5CN&2a
2
7 Risks of the payment systems
Chart 55
Chart 56
Liquidity needed for settling IBC-turnover as a
percentage of available liquidity and uncovered
transactions as a percentage of the turnover
Monthly turnover/liquidity ratio (VIBER) and
monthly turnover and queue statistics
#5?&C57<
%4>H:67A<4
.7&RV(
jN2
322D222
eN2
d2D222
gNj
gN2
^2D222
e2
1Nd
1N2
1N3
e2D222
g2
12
3Ne
3N2
12D222
32
2No
2N2
2
2
2N2
T67N&2^
E6?N&2^
E69&2^
TH89&2^
-5=N&2^
'>SN&2^
T67N&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH89&2o
-5=N&2o
'>SN&2o
T67N&2d
E6?N&2d
E69&2d
TH89&2d
-5=N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
E6?N&2a
E69&2a
TH89&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
E;7;GHG
E6_;GHG
*S5?6F5
V7C>S5?5A&<?67:6C<;>7:l&<H?7>S5?&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
G726%,W';<>9
T67N&2^
E6?N&2^
E69&2^
TH89&2^
-5=N&2^
'>SN&2^
T67N&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH89&2o
-5=N&2o
'>SN&2o
T67N&2d
E6?N&2d
E69&2d
TH89&2d
-5=N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
E6?N&2a
E69&2a
TH89&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
eN1
j2
^2
qH5H5&n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
*S5?6F5&<H?7>S5?l
8;`H;A;<9&?6<;>
E;7;GHG&<H?7>S5?l
8;`H;A;<9&?6<;>
%H?7>S5?&
n?;F4<b467A&:C685p
E6_;GHG&<H?7>S5?l
8;`H;A;<9&?6<;>
G726%,W';<>9
Chart 57
Availability of domestic overseen systems (IBC,
KELER, VIBER)
#5?&C57<
#5?&C57<
322N2
aaNj
aaN2
adNj
adN2
aoNj
aoN2
a^Nj
a^N2
T67N&2^
E6?N&2^
E69&2^
TH89&2^
-5=N&2^
'>SN&2^
T67N&2o
E6?N&2o
E69&2o
TH89&2o
-5=N&2o
'>SN&2o
T67N&2d
E6?N&2d
E69&2d
TH89&2d
-5=N&2d
'>SN&2d
T67N&2a
E6?N&2a
E69&2a
TH89&2a
-5=N&2a
'>SN&2a
322N2
aaNj
aaN2
adNj
adN2
aoNj
aoN2
a^Nj
a^N2
).+
M","!&nB6:5A&>7&
75@&G5<4>A>8>F9p
h)."!&n!%Q-p
M","!&nB6:5A&>7&>8A&
G5<4>A>8>F9p
G726%,W';<>9
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
85
Notes to the appendix
%45&C46?<&A6<5&n5NFN&122dp&G567:&<45&57A&>J&<45&956?&ng3:<& G4"&.*Weg*
R;:<>?;C& S>86<;8;<9k& @5;F4<5A& 4;:<>?;C& S>86<;8;<9& >J& <45&
I5C5GB5?p&;J&7><&><45?@;:5&;7A;C6<5AN
5_C467F5&?6<5&nQ*!+R&G5<4>ApN
G4"&.*Wg
%45&;7C?56:5A&S68H5&>J&<45&;7A;C6<>?&;7A;C6<5:&A5C8;7;7F&?;:X& )G=8;5A&S>86<;8;<9k&;G=8;5A&S>86<;8;<9&>J&`H><5A&g2bA69&*%E&
(i&>=<;>7:N&
6==5<;<5&>?&;7C?56:;7F&?;:X&6S5?:;>7N
G4"&.*Pg
h)ik&;G=8;5A&S>86<;8;<9&>J&-~#&j22N
G4"&.*PQg*
(R.&R>H:5&#?;C5&)7A5_N
E$h"k&;G=8;5A&S>86<;8;<9&>J&V-&%?56:H?;5:&nE5??;88&,97C4pN
G4"&.*PYg*
(i& 8>67:D& 5_C467F5& ?6<5& 6:& >J& 57AbI5C5GB5?& 1222D& RV(&
G4"&.*bg
%45&;7C?56:5A&S68H5&>J&<45&;7A;C6<>?&;7A;C6<5:&A5C8;7;7F&?;:X& 8>67:&6AOH:<5A&B9&:<6<5&8>67&?5J;767C;7F&;7&I5C5GB5?&1221N
6==5<;<5&>?&;7C?56:;7F&?;:X&6S5?:;>7N
G4"&.*Peg*
G4"&.*^g
(i&8>67:&>7&I5C5GB5?&1222D&57A&>J&G>7<4&5_C467F5&?6<5N
u&Q575?68&F>S5?7G57<k&6CC>?A;7F&<>&-'*&G5<4>A>8>F9N
uu&+>?=>?6<5&:5C<>?&67A&y5??>?zk&<45&J;767C;7F&?5`H;?5G57<& G4"&.*bRg*
>J&C>?=>?6<5&:5C<>?&;:&C68CH86<5A&6:&6&?5:;AH68D&:>&;<&;7C8HA5:& *7&;7C?56:5&;7&<45&:@6=&:<>CX&:<67A:&J>?&:@6=:&@;<4&6&8>7F&
J>?;7<& :=><& 85FN& .6:5A& >7& <45& A6;89& (i& ?5=>?<:& >J& C?5A;<&
5??>?:N
;7:<;<H<;>7:N& +68CH86<5A& J?>G& :@6=& <?67:6C<;>7:& B5<@557&
uuu& "_<5?768& J;767C;7F& ?5`H;?5G57<k& 6AOH:<5A& B9& <45& C?5A;<& ;7:<;<H<;>7:& 67A& 7>7b?5:;A57<& ;7S5:<>?:N& %45& E'.&
A;JJ5?57C5&C6H:5A&B9&;G=>?<:&B?>HF4<&J>?@6?A&>7&6CC>H7<&>J& A>5:& 7><& <6X5& ?5:=>7:;B;8;<9& J>?& <45& 6CCH?6C9& >J& <45& A6<6N&
"V&6CC5::;>7&67A&B9&<45&;G=>?<&;7C?56:;7F&;G=6C<&F575?6<5A& !5S;:;>7:&AH5&?5=>?<;7F&5??>?:&67A&7>7b:<67A6?A&<?67:6C<;>7:&
B9&CH:<>G:&@6?54>H:5:&<5?G;76<5A&AH5&<>&"V&6CC5::;>7&67A& C67&856A&<>&:;F7;J;C67<&:HB:5`H57<&G>A;J;C6<;>7:&>J&<45&A6<6&
:5?;5:N& %45& A6<6& :5?;5:& A>5:& 7><& ;7C8HA5& :@6=& <?67:6C<;>7:&
Q?;=57&6C`H;:;<;>7:N
B5<@557&B?67C45:D&:=5C;68;:5A&C?5A;<&;7:<;<H<;>7:D&C>>=5?6<;S5&
C?5A;<& ;7:<;<H<;>7:& 67A& 7>7b?5:;A57<& ;7S5:<>?:N& %45& :@6=&
G4"&.*WQg*
I;:=>:6B85& ;7C>G5& ;:& 5:<;G6<5A& B9& E'.& H:;7F& <45& :<>CX&;:&<45&:HG&>J&J>?@6?A&85F:&C68CH86<5A&6<&6C<H68&J>?5;F7&
C>7:HG=<;>7D& ;7S5:<G57<& 67A& J;767C;68& :6S;7F:& A6<6& >J& 5_C467F5&?6<5:N
4>H:54>8A:N
G4"&.*^Pg*
%45&;7<5?5:<&?6<5&?;:X&:<?5::&<5:<&;7A;C6<5:&<45&=?>O5C<5A&?5:H8<&
G4"&.*WPg*
'HGB5?& >J& B67X?H=<C9& =?>C55A;7F:& >J& 85F68& 57<;<;5:D& >J&67&5_<?5G5&;7<5?5:<&?6<5&5S57<f&;7&<4;:&:C576?;>&<4;:&5S57<&
:HGG5A&6CC>?A;7F&<>&<45&A6<5&>J&=HB8;C6<;>7D&CHGH86<5A&J>?& ;:& 6& =6?68858& H=@6?A& :4;J<& >J& <45& 9;58A& CH?S5& B9& j22& B6:;:&
e&`H6?<5?:D&A;S;A5A&B9&<45&7HGB5?&>J&85F68&57<;<;5:&>=5?6<;7F& =>;7<:& J>?& <45& J>?;7<& 67A& B9& 122& B6:;:& =>;7<:& J>?& <45& 5H?>D&
<45&V-&A>886?D&67A&<45&-@;::&J?67CN&(>?&<45&C68CH86<;>7:&@5&
6&956?&B5J>?5N
6==8;5A&?5b=?;C;7F&A6<6&67A&<45&E6C6H869&AH?6<;>7&A5?;S5A&
J?>G&<45GN
G4"&.*Wbg*
%45&jb956?&J>?@6?A&J>?;7<&?;:X&=?5G;HG&6:&>J&j&956?:&J?>G&
7>@D& C>G=6?5A& <>& <45& 5H?>& J>?@6?A& 9;58A& ngbA69& G>S;7F& G4"&.*^bg*
6S5?6F5p& 67A& <45& jb956?& RH7F6?;67& C?5A;<& A5J6H8<& :@6=&
*&?;:5&;7&<45&8;`H;A;<9&;7A5_&;7A;C6<5:&67&;G=?>S5G57<&;7&<45&
:=?56AN
8;`H;A;<9&>J&<45&J;767C;68&G6?X5<:N
86
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
G4"&.*YQg*
G4"&.*^^g*
-;G;86?89& <>& <45& 8;`H;A;<9& ;7A5_D& ;7C?56:5& ;7& 8;`H;A;<9& :HBb #?5b<6_&=?>J;<N
;7A;C5:&:HFF5:<:&67&;G=?>S5G57<&;7&<45&F;S57&A;G57:;>7&>J&
G4"&.*YWg*
8;`H;A;<9N
)7<5?;G&A6<6&6?5&677H68;:5A•
G4"&.*^Yg*
*& ?;:5& ;7& <45& ;7A;C5:& ?5=?5:57<:& 76??>@;7F& B;Ab6:X& :=?56AD& )7<5?5:<&;7C>G5k&=?5S;>H:&31&G>7<4:
<4H:&67&;7C?56:5&;7&<45&<;F4<75::&67A&8;`H;A;<9&>J&<45&G6?X5<N&
%45& 8;`H;A;<9& ;7A5_& >J& RV(& (ib:@6=& G6?X5<& ;7C8HA5:& <45& )7<5?5:<&5_=57A;<H?5k&=?5S;>H:&31&G>7<4:
A6<6& >J& V-IlRV(& 67A& "V!lRV(& :5FG57<:D& <6X;7F& ;7<>&
6CC>H7<&>J&<>Gb75_<D&>S5?7;F4<&67A&:=><b75_<&<?67:6C<;>7:N& *S5?6F5&;7<5?5:<&B56?;7F&6::5<:k&G567&>J&=?5S;>H:&31&G>7<4:
%45&56?8;5?&S5?:;>7&>J&<45&8;`H;A;<9&;7A5_&;7C8HA5A&>789&<45&
*S5?6F5& ;7<5?5:<& B56?;7F& 8;6B;8;<;5:k& G567& >J& =?5S;>H:& 31&
<>Gb75_<&V-IlRV(&<?67:6C<;>7:N
G>7<4:
G4"&.*^eg*
+8;57<& 8>67:& ;7C8HA5& 8>67:& 67A& B>7A:& >J& 7>7bJ;767C;68& G4"&.*YPg*
;7:<;<H<;>7:D&4>H:54>8A&8>67:D&8>67:&67A&B>7A:&>J&J;767C;68& +>:<k&=?5S;>H:&31&G>7<4:
67A& ;7S5:<G57<& 57<5?=?;:5:D& F>S5?7G57<& 8>67:D& GH7;C;=68&
8>67:& 67A& GH7;C;=68& B>7A:N& +8;57<& A5=>:;<:& ;7C8HA5& <45& )7C>G5k&=?5S;>H:&31&G>7<4:
A5=>:;<:& >J& 7>7bJ;767C;68& ;7:<;<H<;>7:D& 4>H:54>8A& A5=>:;<:D&
A5=>:;<:& >J& G>759& G6?X5<& JH7A:D& A5=>:;<:& >J& J;767C;68& 67A& *S5?6F5&<><68&6::5<k&G567&>J&=?5S;>H:&31&G>7<4:
;7S5:<G57<&57<5?=?;:5:D&F>S5?7G57<&A5=>:;<:&67A&GH7;C;=68&
A5=>:;<:N&%45&8>67b<>&A5=>:;<&?6<;>&;:&5_C467F5b?6<5b6AOH:<5A& G4"&.*Ybg*
+6=;<68& 6A5`H6C9& ?6<;>& n+*!p& s& n<><68& >@7& JH7A:& J>?&
@;<4&?5:=5C<&<>&<45&86:<&=5?;>AN
:>8S57C9&=H?=>:5:lG;7;GHG&C6=;<68&?5`H;?5G57<pudr
G4"&.*^dg*
(H7A;7F& F6=& ;:& <45& A;JJ5?57C5& B5<@557& <45& 5_C467F5& ?6<5& %;5?& 3& C6=;<68& 6A5`H6C9& ?6<;>& s& n<;5?& 3& C6=;<68& 6J<5?&
6AOH:<5A& CH:<>G5?& C?5A;<& 67A& A5=>:;<D& A;S;A5A& B9& <45& A5AHC<;>7:lG;7;GHG&C6=;<68&?5`H;?5G57<pudr
5_C467F5&?6<5&6AOH:<5A&CH:<>G5?&C?5A;<N
G4"&.*Yeg
-<6?<b>JbA69&B6867C5&6AOH:<G57<:&67A&C57<?68&B67X&=69G57<:&
G4"&.*^Rg*
!$"k&=?5b<6_&=?>J;<&l&6S5?6F5&n5`H;<9&m&B6867C5&:455<&=?>J;<pN 6?5&5_C8HA5AN&
!$*k&=?5b<6_&=?>J;<&l&6S5?6F5&<><68&6::5<:N
G4"&.*Ydg*
IH5&<>&A;JJ5?57C5:&;7&<45&76<H?5&>J&<45&>S5?:557&:9:<5G:&67A&
;7&<45&C68CH86<;>7&G5<4>A>8>F9D&C>G=6?;7F&<45&6S6;86B;8;<9&
)7<5?;G&A6<6&6?5&677H68;:5AN
?6<;>:&C67&B5&G;:856A;7FN&%45&C68CH86<;>7&G5<4>A>8>F9&J>?&
<45& 6S6;86B;8;<9& ?6<;>& J>?& M","!& @6:& C467F5A& ;7& T67H6?9&
#?5b<6_&=?>J;<k&=?5S;>H:&31&G>7<4:N
122dN&%45&?6<;>:&B6:5A&>7&<45&75@&67A&>8A&G5<4>A>8>F;5:&
6?5&7><&C>G=6?6B85D&@4;C4&;:&@49&@5&@;88&=HB8;:4&<45&A6<6&
*S5?6F5&<><68&6::5<:k&G567&>J&=?5S;>H:&31&G>7<4:N
B6:5A& >7& <45& 75@& G5<4>A:& J>?& M","!& ;7& :5=6?6<5& <;G5b
*S5?6F5& n5`H;<9& m& B6867C5& :455<& =?>J;<l& 8>::pk& 31bG>7<4& :5?;5:N
G>S;7F&6S5?6F5N
I5J86<>?k&=?5S;>H:&956?&:6G5&G>7<4s322&+#)&nrpN
!"#$!%&$'&()'*'+)*,&-%*.),)%/&0&*#!),&1232
87
!5=>?<&>7&(;767C;68&-<6B;8;<9
*=?;8&1232
#?;7<k&Ib#8H:
Rm32go&.HA6=5:<D&+:;886F45F9;&U<&3am13N

# :F$ EF FE # EE - Center for Financial Stability

Transcription

Similar documents

POPCORN

Adult Recognition History - Girl Scouts of Nation`s Capital

Die BUCHSTAVIER - Das Dosierte Leben