Metro Las Vegas Overview - Southwest Multifamily Team

Transcription

Metro Las Vegas Overview - Southwest Multifamily Team
Metro Las Vegas Overview
Q3 - Q4 2015
CUNNINGHAM │STEELE
Table of C o n t e n t s
Co n ta c t I nforma tion
I. Multifamily Market������������������������������������������������������������������������������1
John P. Cunningham
Executive Vice President
+1 602 282 6314
[email protected]
Charles Steele
Vice President
+1 602 282 6310
[email protected]
Matt Kolano
Analyst
+1 602 282 6264
[email protected]
Annie Novotny
Marketing Coordinator
+1 602 282 6295
[email protected]
II. Economic Overview���������������������������������������������������������������������������8
III. Hospitality & Tourism Update����������������������������������������������������������16
IV. The JLL Team����������������������������������������������������������������������������������21
Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
I. Multifamily Market
Metro Las Vegas Overview
Page 1 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
I. M ultifa m i l y Ma r k e t
Multifamily Las Vegas Submarket Snapshot
LV / Sunrise Manor
Grade North
Inventory (growth): 23,279 (34) Units
Las Vegas
Grade Northwest
Inventory (growth): 7,428 (111) Units
A+
Rents & Yr Growth: Vacancy: A-
$946 (8.2%)
4.6%
Rents & Yr Growth: Vacancy: $766 (5.8%)
5.9%
/ Central LV
Grade Downtown
Inventory (growth):
26,565 (0) Units
/ Spring Valley
Grade Summerlin
Inventory (growth): 30,313 (1,395) Units
A+
Rents & Yr Growth: Vacancy: $898 (8.1%)
4.1%
A-
Vegas Strip
Grade Las
Inventory (growth): A
Rents & Yr Growth: Vacancy: 23,699 (0) Units
$731 (5.3%)
4.6%
Rents & Yr Growth: Vacancy: $721 (5.0%)
5.5%
Valley East
Grade Paradise
Inventory (growth): 3,963 (0) Units
A
Rents & Yr Growth: Vacancy: $804 (6.5%)
3.1%
Grade Henderson
Inventory (growth): / South Paradise
Grade Enterprise
Inventory (growth): 12,321 (28) Units
A
Rents & Yr Growth: Vacancy: Source: CoStar Analytics - Q4 2015
Page 2 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
$1,061 (5.4%)
3.2%
A-
Rents & Yr Growth: Vacancy: 22,214 (373) Units
$931 (6.9%)
4.9%
I. M ultifa m i l y Ma r k e t
The most recent recession is finally fading into the distance, as Las Vegas and its economy forge ahead. Economic uncertainty that plagued the Metro through its recovery is being outshined by new and significant
reasons for optimism. Strong employment gains and accelerating population growth are providing a strong foundation for expansion across the Metro and both show no signs of slowing down. New jobs and new
bodies have translated into robust demand for apartments in the last several quarters, driving vacancy to record lows. All of this new demand has been funneling into existing projects as developers have remained
relatively silent this cycle, allowing current landlords to push pricing rather aggressively. Most recently, however, Las Vegas has begun to attract a handful of developers who cannot seem to resist the Metro’s
impressive economic and demographic indicators. In addition to the slow return of developers to Las Vegas, investors are starting to flock back to seize on opportunities you cannot find anywhere else. Investors are
being driven out of coastal and primary markets by record low cap rates and are beginning to look elsewhere for value. Las Vegas apartment sales volume and pricing is quickly approaching prerecession peaks.
Occupancy
Beginning in 2012, demand for apartments returned to Las Vegas with a renewed vigor thanks to a number of factors that helped push households into rental units. Suffering from one of the highest foreclosure
rates in the nation, many Las Vegas residents were left with little choice following the recession. Fortunately, steady job growth reemerged in 2011 and has successfully outpaced the national rate every year
since. With the wave of new jobs, median household income broke free of its stagnancy and has started to grow consistently. As people recover from the recession, apartments and rental homes remain the most
affordable options.
Although many residents have entered the renter pool by default, a significant portion of renters are choosing to avoid homeownership. With a growing millennial population that prefers the convenience and
flexibility of renting, the homeownership rate in Las Vegas has plummeted. Preceding the recession, 64.8 percent of households owned their homes at peak in Q4 2006. Nine years and a recession later, the
homeownership rate fell to 55.2 percent as of Q4 2015. This sharp decline has resulted in over 70,000 households being added to the Las Vegas renter pool. Preferences towards renting will continue to fuel
apartment demand and translate to tighter occupancy across the Metro.
Vacancy
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
5.9%
5.5%
6.5%
10.0%
10.4%
11.5%
9.2%
8.7%
8.1%
7.5%
5.9%
4.8%
4.5%
4.3%
5.1%
5.9%
6.5%
Source: CoStar Analytics – Q4 2015
14%
Forecast
12%
Vacancy
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Page 3 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
I . M ultifa m i l y Ma r k e t
Supply & Demand
A potential source of concern for landlords is sharing apartment demand with single-family rentals. At the beginning of the recovery, institutional investors entered the Las Vegas single-family home market to
purchase entire communities and convert them into rentals. The demographic between a typical home renter and that of a market-rate apartment renter usually differs, but the large inventory of single-family rental
stock provides increased competition for apartment demand.
The Las Vegas apartment inventory remained relatively unchanged in the years following the recession with approximately 151,089 total units. Developers returned to the Metro beginning in 2014 and have become
increasingly more active. High performing submarkets supported by strong demographics, such as Henderson and Summerlin/Spring Valley, accounted for the majority of new projects. These new projects come
fully equipped with large floorplans, premium amenities, and modern features attractive to a higher-income demographic. The demand for new or renovated product has been insatiable as these projects exceed
occupancy and rent growth expectations by large margins. Incremental increases in vacancy could follow in the short term amid the more active development pipeline and favorable rent growth, but should not be
a cause for concern as they will remain below prerecession levels.
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Completions
3,112
1,287
1,143
5,236
3,971
3,915
1,552
404
546
460
1,359
1,864
1,579
1,438
2,833
2,946
2,535
% of Growth
2.5%
1.0%
0.9%
4.0%
2.9%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.9%
1.2%
1.0%
0.9%
1.8%
1.9%
1.6%
Source: CoStar Analytics – Q4 2015
6,000
Completions
Forecast
% Growth
5.0%
4.0%
4,000
3.0%
3,000
2.0%
2,000
1.0%
1,000
0
2004
2005
Page 4 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
0.0%
% Growth
Completions
5,000
I. M ultifa m i l y Ma r k e t
Rents
In 2015, Las Vegas recorded its largest increase in rents in almost a decade. The Metro was plagued with negative rent growth through 2012 before finally bouncing back. Robust demand has outpaced any limited
new supply to the market resulting in aggressive pricing. Landlords have been able to successfully push rents without any significant increases to the value of concessions offered to renters. Positive movement
in asking rents was recorded in all eight of the Metro’s submarkets. Rent growth is expected to sustain its positive growth through 2020, despite slowing in the latter of years of the forecast. As new supply and
competition enter the market, landlords will be less inclined to raise rents as aggressively as they did in recent quarters, although increasing demand will continue to support positive growth.
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Asking Rents
$747
$800
$839
$858
$850
$772
$760
$755
$761
$780
$803
$857
$896
$926
$953
$970
$980
YOY Rent Growth
5.8%
7.1%
4.9%
2.2%
-0.9%
-9.2%
-1.6%
-0.7%
0.9%
2.5%
2.9%
6.6%
4.6%
3.4%
2.9%
1.8%
1.0%
Source: CoStar Analytics – Q4 2015
$1,100
Asking Rents
$1,050
Forecast
% Growth
10.0%
7.5%
$1,000
5.0%
$900
2.5%
$850
0.0%
$800
-2.5%
$750
-5.0%
$700
-7.5%
$650
$600
% Growth
Asking Rents
$950
2004
2005
Page 5 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
-10.0%
I. M ultifa m i l y Ma r k e t
Sales
Las Vegas is seeing increased interest from national investors as aggressive pricing pushes buyers out of coastal markets. Investors chasing value are looking to Las Vegas, a lagging market that has yet to reach
its peak with plenty of growth ahead. Although sales volume and pricing has not yet reached the levels seen before the recession, investors have been active in Las Vegas exceeding $1 billion in each of the last
three years.
Class A properties are benefiting the most from institutional interest because these properties offer modern amenities with higher than average rents and room for additional growth. Pricing for these assets has
risen substantially since the recession as new buyers continue to enter the market. Many of the recent trades, including even the highest volume trades, still often involved value-add plans. New owners are
upgrading unit interiors and expanding amenities to continue to push rents and attract renters.
Class A Volume (millions)
Class A Median Price / Unit
Overall Cap Rates
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
$614
$1,143
$501
$375
$128
$28
$89
$182
$236
$781
$613
$451
$61,251
$108,092
$105,826
$107,864
$103,057
$59,149
$104,318
$78,503
$62,086
$86,658
$105,593
$84,459
6.1%
5.5%
5.2%
5.3%
6.2%
7.0%
7.4%
6.8%
6.2%
5.7%
5.5%
5.2%
Source: CoStar Analytics – Q4 2015
$125,000
Class A Median Price / Unit
$115,000
10.0%
Overall Cap Rates
7.5%
$95,000
$85,000
5.0%
$75,000
$65,000
$55,000
2.5%
$45,000
$35,000
$25,000
2004
2005
Page 6 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0.0%
Cap Rates
Median Price / Unit
$105,000
I. M ultifa m i l y Ma r k e t
Outlook
Las Vegas is back as the Leisure & Hospitality and Construction sectors pave the way forward. Both industries have been adding significant jobs stemming from ongoing development of hotel and gaming resort
projects. Population growth is following shortly behind with growth returning to 3.0 percent through 2019. Positive economic indicators leave little room for doubt, and developers, investors, and owners will benefit
from the positive trends.
Almost 1,600 new units are expected to deliver in 2016, growing the Las Vegas multifamily inventory by approximately 1.0 percent. New household formations across the Metro over the same year are expected to
average 3.1 percent, as positive population and job trends stimulate the growth. Apartment demand is expected to keep pace with new construction in the short term resulting in minimal, if not incremental changes
to vacancy. Rental rates will continue to climb as demand for new and modern apartments remains strong.
1,917
Rent Growth
$890
Cap Rates
1,579
Rents
4.5%
Absorption
Completions
Vacancy
Metro Las Vegas 2016 Projections
4.6%
5.0%
Arrows represent change from prior year
*CoStar Analytics includes competitive, traditional, rental apartment properties in complexes with 20 or more units in Nevada. Specialty property types such as condominium, student, senior, subsidized, and affordable
properties are excluded from CoStar rental apartment statistics. Economic and demographics statistics are sources from Moody’s Economy.com and used to support estimated CoStar projections.
Page 7 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
II. Economic Overview
Metro Las Vegas Overview
Page 8 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
II. Econo m i c Ov e r v i e w
Lower cost of living, a friendly business environment, and its strategic location between some of the
Nation’s largest metros sets the stage for continued growth in Las Vegas
The Las Vegas economy continues to outpace the west region and the country as a whole. The Metro’s unparalleled gaming and entertainment infrastructure is one of its primary economic drivers, which feeds
additional sectors such as construction, retail, and restaurants. Tourism is gaining traction from rising incomes and low fuel costs and will result in faster industry growth in 2016.
Based on statistics from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA), the Metro is seeing record growth. Metro Las Vegas attracted 42.3 million visitors in 2015, the highest total visitation ever.
Additionally, Las Vegas remains the third leading destination in the U.S. for conventions and meetings, drawing nearly 5.89 million convention delegates in 2015, spread over 21,306 conventions, the largest number
hosted since 2008. People are gaining discretionary income and are beginning to travel and take vacations as they did before, driving the Las Vegas economy forward.
Las Vegas is witnessing demographic and behavioral shifts in the age, nationalities and spending habits of visitors. While gaming activity has declined over the past decade,
visitors are spending more on non-gaming activities. As a result, investors are making significant investments in retail and entertainment, both on and off the Strip. There will be a
total of 7,671 new and converted hotel and timeshare rooms totaling nearly $5.9 billion added to the inventory through 2018. Las Vegas will develop $2.9 billion in entertainment
and retail projects through 2018. The new developments are expected to help boost hotel values where many of these new facilities will be anchored.
Page 9 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
II. Econo m i c Ov e r v i e w
Las Vegas Market Drivers
#5 Best Tax
Structure Nationally
2015 National
Golden Shovel Award
Among the Nation’s Leaders
in Startup Activity
The low-tax climate in Southern Nevada is
one of the most-cited reasons to do business
in Nevada. Their tax structure clearly
distinguishes Nevada as providing a business
environment very few states can match.
Area Development’s annual Gold Shovel Award
recognizes states for their overall economic
development effectiveness. Nevada has proven
that it understands what makes for a winning
economic development strategy. They have
determinedly held the line on taxes and have
relentlessly pursued other paths to businessfriendliness, including providing reasonable
incentives, improving infrastructure, training
workforces, and establishing an overall
environment of cooperation with business that
helps create vibrant new economic presence
in communities and sustainable employment
today and for the future.
The Kauffman Index is an annual look at
startup activity across US cities and states
by the entrepreneurship-focused Kauffman
Foundation. Las Vegas jumped up 3 ranks
2015, to the be among the top 11 markets in
the nation for startup activity.
Due to such a competitive operating
environment, companies doing business in
Nevada can save millions of dollars by having
a long-term presence in Nevada.
Source: Tax Foundation
Page 10 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
Source: Area Development
Rate of new entrepreneurs: 380
Opportunity share of entrepreneurs: 72.7%
Startup density: 158.3
Source: Tech.co; 2015 Kauffman Index
II. Econo m i c Ov e r v i e w
Las Vegas Population
Population growth in the region is driven by trends, such as the shifting of the nation’s population center further to the west, and opportunities for jobs in industries like healthcare, logistics, and technology, as well
as a booming tourism industry. Projections show the region is expected to grow three percent annually over the next four years, reaching 2.3 million people. The projected population growth rate of 10.2% through
2019 ranks Las Vegas as the 3rd fastest growing market among all metros in the U.S. according to Moody’s Analytics.
One of the market’s strong suits is that Las Vegas has a strong concentration of residents in the 20 to 34 year old demographic, the group most likely to rent apartments. This group is set to increase by nearly 16%
over the next five years, which is substantially higher than any other western U.S. market.
PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH BY METRO FOR 2015 - 2019
Projected to be the
4.6%
4.6%
5.0%
5.2%
5.7%
5.8%
4%
6.1%
6.9%
7.3%
7.3%
6%
7.5%
8.4%
9.8%
9.8%
10.2%
8.6%
Job Growth
8%
10.3%
10%
11.4%
12%
Source: Moody’s Analytics
Projected Population Growth by Metro for 2015 - 2019
Source: Page
Moody’s
11Analytics
| Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
Indianapolis, IN
San Diego, CA
Riverside, CA
Tampa, FL
Denver, CO
Miami, FL
Jacksonville, FL
Houston, TX
Fort Lauderdale, FL
San Antonio, TX
Atlanta, GA
Dallas, TX
Fort Worth, TX
Phoenix, AZ
Charlotte, NC
Las Vegas, NV
Austin, TX
0%
Orlando, FL
2%
3
rd
fastest growing
major MSA from 2015
through 2019
I I. Econo m i c Ov e r v i e w
Las Vegas Employment
PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY METRO FOR 2015 -2019
2.2%
South
Carolina
2.1%
2.2%
Idaho
2.4%
Oregon
2.3%
2.4%
2%
Georgia
2.5%
2.9%
2.7%
Job Growth
3%
3.1%
4%
Source: Moody’s Analytics
Annual Projected Employment Growth by State through 2019
Source: Forbes Business; Moody’s Analytics
Page 12 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
California
Washington
Utah
Florida
Nevada
0%
Arizona
1%
Projected to be the
2nd fastest growing
state for employment
from 2015 through 2019
I I. Econo m i c Ov e r v i e w
Las Vegas Employment
In addition to hospitality and leisure, secondary drivers, which have comprised a bigger share of recent job additions, will also gain potency. Construction employment is quickly rising thanks to an escalation of
infrastructure and industrial development. Though it accounts for only 6 percent of employment, the industry is responsible for one-quarter of jobs created over the last year. The majority of other new positions are
in business/professional services, which are expanding faster than in the rest of the state and the nation. Southern Nevada’s healthcare footprint is also growing rapidly. New hospital developments and expansions
are taking place to meet growing demand. Robust population growth, especially among those age 65 and older, will preserve above-average job gains.
Las Vegas’s economy will soon kick into a higher gear, and job growth in 2016 is forecast to again exceed that of the West and the nation. An influx of new residents and visitors will support housing and consumer
industries, and investment and hiring outside of the travel industry will help improve industrial diversity. Longer term, unmatched tourism assets and appeal as a place to live will help Las Vegas keeps its lead over
the U.S.
INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT STRATIFICATION
Other Services
Construction 3%
6%
Manufacturing
2%
Financial Activities
5%
Information
1%
Mining/Logging
<0%
JOB GROWTH/LOSS BY SECTOR
Trade,
Transportation, and
Utilities
18%
Total
18,086
Education and Health Services
5,679
Construction
5,409
Leisure and Hospitality
3,650
Government
3,147
Professional and Business Services
Professional and
Business Services
13%
Leisure and
Hospitality
31%
2,843
Other Services
803
Information
504
Manufacturing
193
Mining and Logging
Education and
Health Services
10%
Government
11%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics December 2015; Data released February 1, 2016
USBLS Dec 2015 –released Feb 2016
Page 13 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
0
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Financial Activities
-850
-3,292
-5000
-3000
-1000
1000
3000
Number of Jobs
5000
7000
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics December 2015; Data released February 1, 2016
II. Econo m i c Ov e r v i e w
Las Vegas Employment
6.2%
2.0%
Las Vegas Unemployment Rate
LV 12-month Job Growth
6.4%
4.8%
Nevada Unemployment Rate
U.S. Unemployment Rate
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics December 2015; Data released February 1, 2016
MAJOR EMPLOYERS
Las Vegas MSA Major Employers
Employees
MGM Resorts International
Clark County School District
Caesars Entertainment Corp.
Nellis Air Force Base
Wynn Resorts
Station Casions, LLC
Las Vegas Sands Corp.
Clark County Government
Boyd Gaming Corp.
Walmart Stores
University of Nevada, Las Vegas
The Valley Health System
Blackstone Group
Supervalu
University Medical Center
Dignity Health
Southwest Airlines
City of Las Vegas
Sears Holdings Corp.
Target Corp.
UnitedHealthcare
56,000
37,000
26,600
14,000
11,000
10,000
8,800
8,500
7,300
6,400
5,000
4,500
4,100
4,000
3,500
3,000
3,000
3,000
2,800
2,600
2,000
Source: LV Global Economic Alliance & JLL Research
Page 14 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
II. Econo m i c Ov e r v i e w
Las Vegas Homeownership Rate
Paradigm Shift in U.S. Homeownership
Homeownership Rate Peak (Q4 2004) - 69.2%
Homeownership Rate Today (Q4 2015) - 63.8%
Paradigm Shift in Metro Las Vegas Homeownership
Homeownership Rate Peak (Q4 2006) - 64.8%
Homeownership Rate Today (Q4 2015) - 55.2%
Source: U.S. Census, Moody’s Business Analytics
With approximately 754,730 households in the Las Vegas MSA, that accounts for a decrease of over 70,000
homeowners, most of who have migrated to the rental market.
Page 15 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
III. Hospitality & Tourism Update
Metro Las Vegas Overview
Page 16 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
III. Hospitality & Tourism Update
Las Vegas Visitor Profile
VISITOR VOLUME
VISITORS & GAMING
41,126,512
39,668,221
39,727,022
38,928,708
37,335,436
36,351,469
39,196,761
38,914,889
37,481,552
35,540,126
35,071,504
35,017,317
71%
2.9 hrs
$530
of visitors
gambled
avg spent/day
gambling
avg gambling
budget/trip
85% in 2000
4.0 hrs in 2000
$665 in 2000
- vs -
- vs -
- vs -
Source: LV Convention and Visitor Authority
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
VISITORS’ BUDGETS
2001
30,000,000
2000
32,000,000
35,849,691
36,000,000
37,388,781
38,000,000
38,566,717
40,000,000
42,312,216
visitors in 2015 -
42,000,000
34,000,000
visitors gambled less in 2014
42.3 MILLION the highest visitation ever
44,000,000
Average trip budget is increasingly focused on non-gaming activities
2014 trip budget: $1,369
VISITOR DEMOGRAPHICS
Compared to 2000
Shopping
Average age
45.2
Under age 40
26%
Under age 40
44%
International
13%
International
19%
Source: LV Convention and Visitor Authority
Page 17 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
Gaming
39%
Nongaming
61%
Gaming
+60%
50.4
2014
+51%
Average age
shift
-20%
2000
Food & Drinks
III. Hospitality & Tourism Update
Las Vegas Lodging Performance
Market fundamentals
Both ADR & occupancy are driving RevPar growth
Las Vegas lodging performance
5%
RevPAR CAGR
in Las Vegas
since 2009
Both aDR &
occupancy
increases
are driving
RevpaR
growth
YTD Mar 2014
RevPAR is up
$140$140
8%
90% 90%
$120$120
80% 80%
$100$100
70% 70%
60% 60%
$80 $80
40% 40%
30% 30%
$40 $40
20% 20%
Occ
2014
2013
2012
2013
2011
2012
2010
2011
2009
RevPAR
2010
2008
2009
2007
ADR
2008
2006
2007
2005
2006
2004
2005
2003
2004
2002
2003
2001
2002
2001
$0 $0
10% 10%
0% 0%
YTD Mar
2013
2015
YTD Mar
2014
RevPar CAGR
in Las Vegas
since 2009
as 2015 RevPAR
was still 12% below
previous peak in 2007
50% 50%
$60 $60
$20 $20
4.3%
100%100%
Las Vegas
ranks among
UPSIDE
top 3 highest
POTENTIAL
occupancy markets
in the U.S.
in the market
upside
potential
in the
market
Las Vegas
as 2013 RevPAR
among
wasranks
still 22%
below
TOP
3
HIGHEST
previous peak in 2007
occupancy markets in
the U.S.
Source: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA)
Visitor profile
Las Vegas visitor volume
Source: LV Convention and Visitor Authority
in 2013 surpassed
previous peak volume in 2007
39.7 MiLLioN visitors
Page 18 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
41
40
Las Vegas visitors gambled less in 2013
71%
of visitors
2.9 hrs
avg spent/day
$530
avg gambling
III. Hospitality & Tourism Update
Las Vegas Convention Market
5.89 million delegates
attended
21,306 meetings held in 2015
Meeting, exhibit and trade show space totaling
10.9 million square feet
#3
convention
destination
in U.S.
Convention attendance
increased
13%
in 2015
Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority has planned the $2.3 billion, 600,000-square-foot Las Vegas Global
Business District addition to the Las Vegas Convention Center. The project will create 6,000 construction jobs throughout
the multi-phased development and 6,000 new permanent jobs once completed.
Source: LV Convention and Visitor Authority
Page 19 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
III. Hospitality & Tourism Update
Las Vegas Hotel Pipeline
Recent Hotels
Marriott Grand Chateau (III)*
Wyndham Desert Blue*
The LINQ Hotel & Casino (II)
Estimated Totals
Future Hotels
Residence Inn South #2
Silverton Hotel and Casino Lodge*
Lucky Dragon Hotel & Casino
All Net Resort & Arena
SpringHill Suites Marriott
Lorenzo Doumani Parcel
Resorts Worlds Las Vegas (I)
Alon Las Vegas Crown Resort
Mardi Gras Hotel & Casino
Estimated Totals
New Supply Pipeline*
Location
Rooms
Cost($M)
Completion Date
1,805
Rooms
$172
Cost($M)
Completion Date
Strip
West
Strip
120
281
1,404
Location
South
South
Strip
Strip
South
Strip
Strip
Strip
Strip
NA
$172
NA
124
390
206
500
160
NA
3,000
1,100
386
NA
NA
$373
$1,400
NA
NA
$4,000
NA
NA
5,866
$5,773
Q1 2015
Q1 2015
Q3 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
2017
2017
2017
2017
2018
2018
2018
7,671 new and converted
hotel and timeshare rooms totaling nearly
$5.9 billion
through 2018
*Timeshare Source:
units LV Convention and Visitor Authority
Las Vegas Retail & Entertainment Development Outlook
$2.9 Billion
IN ENTERTAINMENT AND
RETAIL DEVELOPMENTS
THROUGH 2016
Page 20 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
=
$1.5 Billion
ON THE STRIP
$15
$20
$20
$30
$38
$50
$50
$55
$100
$375
$733
Million
Million
Million
Million
Million
Million
Million
Million
Million
Million
Million
26
hotels
+
TI Hotel & Casino Retail & Entertainment Venue
Rock in Rio - MGM Festival Grounds
Shops at Tropicana Las Vegas
SpeedVegas
Caesars Palace Omnia Nightclub
The Grand Bazaar Shops at Bally's
Topgolf Las Vegas
The Park - Toshiba Plaza and Beer Garden
Monte Carlo Resort & Casino Theater Hall
MGM Resorts International Arena (AEG)
Additional destination amenities
$1.4 Billion
OFF THE STRIP
N/A
N/A
$1,000 Million
$26
Million
$63
Million
$47
Million
N/A
$23
Million
$229 Million
Trivoli Village (Phase 2)
Las Vegas Premium Outlets- North
World Market Center
Galleria at Sunset (Phase II)
Henderson Space & Science Center
Thomas & Mack Center Renovation
IKEA Store
Boulevard Mall Renovation
Additional destination amenities
IV. The JLL Team
Metro Las Vegas Overview
Page 21 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
IV. The JLL Team
MULTIFAMILY
INVESTMENT SALES
Arizona
JOINT VENTURE
EQUITY PROCUREMENT
Nevada
New Mexico
Our Team
Our Experience
Our Results
Established
group, profoundly
different than any
other team in the
market
Over 35 years
of experience as
principals and
brokers
Over 16,000 units
totaling
+$1.7 billion
Page 22 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
95
157
SILVERSTONE
SPRING
MOUNTAIN
RANCH
KYLE
CANYON
GATEWAY
IRON
MOUNTAIN
RANCH
Southwest Multifamily Team Metro Las Vegas Transaction Experience
IV. The JLL Team
GRAND TETON DR
HAULAPAI WAY
PARK HIGHLANDS
FARM RD
ALIANTE
574
W LAKE MEAD BLVD
D
RIA
UST
ES
“TH
IND
TRI
LR
RR
PA
CI
FIC
P”
KE
LA
S
LA
AS PKWY
VEG
VD
BL
Y
HW
O RD
PABC
VAN
WA
BURK
HOLD
GEN
EN
FOOTHILLS DR
SEVEN HILLS
MISSION DR
**Part of portfolio transaction
COLLEGE DR
PK
GREENWAY RD
PARADISE HILLS DR
1. Oasis Sierra
208 Units / $14.2 M
EQUESTRIAN DR
CCSN
HENDERSON CAMPUS
APPALOOSA RD
515
MACDONALD
HIGHLANDS
VD
BLACK
MOUNTAIN
MACDONALD RANCH
WEST
CANYON
2. Desert Shores
424 Units / $28 M
ER BL
ST
MAGIC WAY
P Y
DOMINICAN
HOSPITAL
PACIFIC AVE
12
ST. ROSE
3. Green Valley
360 Units / $46.3 M
T
RS
TE
WA
DEL WEBB
SUN CITY
SUNRIDGE
4. Desert Lakes**
184 Units / $26 M
RACETRACK RD
95
DRAGON RIDGE
DOMINICAN HOSPITAL
SIENA CAMPUS
Y
W
D PK
LAKE MEA
CENTER ST
582
GIBSON RD
PASEO VERDE PKWY
HENDERSON
SOUTHFORK
TUSCANY
EASTGATE RD
515
AMERICAN PACIFIC DR
215
WY
HENDERSON
EXECUTIVE
AIRPORT
STEPHANIE ST
SE
RO
HOLLYWOOD BLVD
R
DE
UL
ST
VD
MARYLAND PKWY
BERMUDA RD
JONES BLVD
DECATUR BLVD
R
IC R
BUFFALO DR
FORT APACHE RD
SILVERADO
RANCH 146
R
5. Flamingo West**
324 Units / $45.9 M
THE
FALLS
564
LEGACY
ST. ROSE
604
T
93
BL
UPR
E VERDE DR
VALL
GREEN VALLEY PKWY
GREEN
VALLEY
607
SILVERADO RANCH BLVD
CACTUS AVE
EN
SUNSET RD
ARROYO GRANDE
PECOS RD
WINDMILL LN
PEBBLE RD
SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS
DB
6. Talavera**
350 Units / $52.8 M
REFLECTION
BAY
WHITNEY
RANCH
WILDHORSE
S EASTERN AVE
UN
ION
PAC
IF
S RAINBOW BLVD
BLUE DIAMOND RD
OA
BO
3
SUNSET
PARK
SOUTH LAS VEGAS BLVD
CORONADO
RANCH
HOLLYWOOD BLVD
BR
MC CARRAN
INT’L AIRPORT
TOWN
SQUARE
WINDMILL LN
WIGWAM AVE
MOUNTAIN’S
EDGE
11
E TROPICANA AVE
7. Reserve at Arrow Canyon
426 Units / $37 M
147
LAKE
LAS VEGAS
EAST
LAS VEGAS
582
WARM SPRINGS RD
NEVADA
TRAILS
CACTUS AVE
8
SUNSET RD
ST. ROSE
SAN MARTIN
HOSPITAL
MOUNTAINS EDGE PKWY
STALLION
MOUNTAIN
95
SANDHILL RD
BUFFALO DR
DURANGO DR
SOUTHERN
HILLS HOSPITAL
595
ROYAL
LINKS
RUSSELL RD
BALI
HAI
SUNSET RD
GOMER RD
MARYLAND PKWY
RUSSELL RD
15
215
160
LAMB BLVD
T
DISE RD
FORT APACHE RD
HACIENDA AVE
SPRING
VALLEY
HOSPITAL
DESERT
SPRINGS
HOSPITAL
UNLV
RAILROAD
PASS
RIO SECCO
ANTHEM
REVERE
DEL WEBB’S
(note sale)
8. Solis at Flamingo
524 Units / $35.3 M
VEGAS VALLEY DR
612
DESERT INN RD
E FLAMINGO RD
PARA
593
SPANISH TRAIL
RHODES
RANCH
E SAHARA AVE
BOULEVARD
MALL
WYNN
DECATUR BLVD
W TROPICANA AVE
WARM SPRINGS RD
LAS VEGAS
CC
604
502
SPRING
VALLEY
SUNRISE
COLONY
TS
VALLEY VIEW RD
JONES BLVD
SPRING MTN RD
10
DESERT
ROSE
ON
ST LOUIS AVE
589
S RAINBOW BLVD
HUALAPAI WAY
SIENA
595
BUFFALO DR
4
5 RD
W FLAMINGO
DESERT INN RD
PECOS RD
DRIVE
THE LAKES
BEAR’S
BEST
607
W SAHARA AVE
9. Sedona Lone Mountain
321 Units / $11.1 M
E CHARLESTON BLVD
M
6
TER
215
10. Sunset Cove
392 Units / $21.7 M
STEWART AVE
UNIVERSITY
MEDICAL CENTER
159
AVE
BONANZA RD
DESERT PINES
EE
TOWN CEN
RED
ROCK
1
CCSN
CHARLESTON
CAMPUS
CAMPUS
CANYON
GATE
11. Solis at Flamingo
524 Units / $50.5 M
147
D
BLV
E LAKE MEAD
WASHINGTON
FR
FOOTHILLS DR
W CHARLESTON BLVD
PECCOLE
RANCH
BRUCE ST
ERT
DES
BADLANDS
SUNRISE
VISTA
OWENS AVE
515 93
ALTA DR
W LAKE MEAD BLVD
N EASTERN AVE
R
95
WESTCLIFF DRIVE
ANGEL
PARK
LAS VEGAS
LAS VEGAS
MUNICIPAL
WASHINGTON DR
SUMMERLIN PKWY
12. Vantage Lofts & Flats
110 Units / $39M
NORTH
LAS VEGAS
147
HD
NC
RA
TPC AT
CANYONS
A
NL
NELLIS AFB
D
LV
SB
GA
E
SV
E CHEYENNE AVENUE
15
CAREY AVE
VEGAS DR
SUMMERLIN
CHEYENNE
CAMPUS
CAMPUS
BELMONT ST
95
147
TPC AT
SUMMERLIN
CCSN
NORTH LAS VEGAS
AIRPORT
SMOKE RANCH RD
EAGLE
CREST
CRAIG RD
93
NELLIS BLVD
DESERT
SHORES
PALM
VALLEY
9
NELLIS AFB
15
573
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR BLVD
N RAINBOW BLVD
BUFFALO DR
CHEYENE AVE
2
SUN CITY LAS VEGAS
HIGHLAND
FALLS
599
7
D
CRAIG RD
SHADOW
CREEK
SE
ER
RANCHO
ALTA MIRA
N 5TH ST
RANCHO
DEL NORTE
LONE MOUNTAIN RD
ALEXANDER RD
ANN RD
WASHBURN RD
12 transactions
totaling 4,146 units
$407.8 Million
IO
N
LOS
PRADOS
LAMB BLVD
DURANGO DR
PAINTED DESERT
EL DORADO
15
LAS VEGAS
MOTOR SPEEDWAY 604
CENTENNIAL PKWY
PECOS RD
SIMMONS ST
DECATUR BLVD
ANN RD
93
LOSSEE RD
CAMINO AL NORTE
JONES BLVD
TENAYA WAY
215
DURANGO
HILLS
215
UN
ELKHORN RD
ELKHORN
SPRINGS
95
DEER SPRINGS WAY
LO
PROVIDENCE
93
IV. The JLL Team
John Cunningham
Executive Vice President
+1 602 282 6314
[email protected]
RESPONSIBILITIES
Mr. Cunningham is an Executive Vice President in JLL’s Capital Markets Group. Based in Phoenix, Arizona, Mr. Cunningham focuses on multifamily investment sales throughout the Southwest and oversees a
broad range of investment sales and equity procurement for multifamily developers.
EXPERIENCE
Mr. Cunningham has over 25 years of real estate experience with an emphasis in multifamily acquisitions, and development. Prior to joining JLL, Mr. Cunningham was the Managing Partner of Acquisitions with
Alliance Residential Company. During his tenure with Alliance, Mr. Cunningham structured an institutional investment platform and acquired over $1 billion in multifamily assets throughout the United States through
single asset and portfolio acquisitions. The business model included core asset acquisitions as well as asset reposition opportunities with variable hold periods. The reposition program varied from $2,000 to
$10,000 per unit in capital improvements, totaling over $100 million under management.
Prior to Alliance, Mr. Cunningham held the position of Investment Officer for Camden Property Trust, where he was responsible for real estate transactions of multifamily assets in the western United States. In
addition, he was responsible for strategic management of Camden’s western United States office and retail holdings. Prior to his work at Camden, he was also in charge of acquisitions for the southwestern United
States for United Dominion Realty Trust, where he was responsible for over $100 million in acquisitions and development of multifamily properties.
EDUCATION AND AFFILIATIONS
Mr. Cunningham is a licensed Real Estate Broker in Arizona and a licensed salesperson in Nevada. He received his bachelor’s degree from the University of Arizona.
Page 24 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
IV. The JLL Team
Charles Steele
Vice President
+1 602 282 6310
[email protected]
RESPONSIBILITIES
Charles Steele is a Vice President for JLL’s Capital Markets Group based in Phoenix focusing on multifamily investment sales and equity procurement for multifamily developers throughout the Southwestern
United States. He is currently engaged in transactions in Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico.
EXPERIENCE
Over a career spanning ten years, Charles has conducted multifamily acquisitions and dispositions totaling $1.2 billion. Prior to joining JLL in March 2012, Charles was an acquisitions and investments associate with Alliance Residential Company, with a focus on distressed investing and note purchases. During his tenure with Alliance, he acquired in excess of $850 million in multifamily properties and real estate
backed loans.
Prior to his time with Alliance, Charles was a senior accountant with KPMG LLP, where he had several real estate investment and operating clients. He also was the lead accountant on the audit of a $2 billion
consumer product manufacturer based in Phoenix.
EDUCATION AND AFFILIATIONS
Charles earned his bachelor of arts in business administration and master of science in accounting from Eastern Michigan University. He holds both an Arizona and a Nevada real estate license.
Page 25 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
IV. The JLL Team
Matt Kolano
Annie Novotny
+1 602 282 6264
[email protected]
+1 602 282 6295
[email protected]
Analyst
Marketing Coordinator
RESPONSIBILITIES
RESPONSIBILITIES
Matt Kolano is the primary market analyst with the JLL Southwest Multifamily Capital Markets
Team, responsible for tracking and analyzing all local and regional real estate market
fundamentals. He closely monitors economic and demographic trends to identify opportunities
for value creation. Mr. Kolano provides financial modeling, investment analysis, underwriting
and a comprehensive understanding of the transaction and development landscape to offer
clients a competitive and strategic perspective.
Annie Novotny is a Marketing and Project Coordinator for the JLL Southwest Multifamily Capital
Markets Group in Phoenix. She oversees the synchronization of the group’s marketing efforts
and acts as the project coordinator throughout the listing and sale transaction. Ms. Novotny’s
responsibilities include coordinating marketing materials, creating pitches and presentations, and
developing marketing campaigns. Additionally, she offers client support and facilitates the due
diligence process.
EXPERIENCE
EXPERIENCE
Prior to joining the team, Mr. Kolano led the JLL Phoenix research team, where he advised
corporations and investors on all branches of the local market. He holds two Bachelor of
Science degrees in economics and finance from the W.P. Carey School of Business at
Arizona State University.
Ms. Novotny joined JLL from Cushman & Wakefield where she was the Senior Brokerage
Coordinator of the Retail Capital Markets Group. She brings over ten years of commercial real
estate experience to JLL. Ms. Novotny earned a Bachelor of Science degree in business marketing
from Arizona State University and she holds an Arizona real estate license.
Page 26 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
IV. The JLL Team
JLL Southwest Multifamily Recent Team Experience - Select List
McClintock Station
Cobalt on 32nd Street
Avion on Legacy
Vantage Lofts
San Miguel Del Bosque
Phoenix, AZ
Multifamily Investment Sale
90 Units
Completed 2014
Closed November-2015
$16.2 Million
Scottsdale, AZ
Multifamily Investment Sale
322 Units
Completed 2015
Closed October-2015
$74.06 Million
Henderson, NV
Multifamily Investment Sale
110 Units
Completed 2014
Closed September-2015
$39.0 Million
Albuquerque, NM
Multifamily Investment Sale
356 Units
Completed 1994/2008
Closed September-2015
Pricing Confidential
Solis at Flamingo
Indigo
Regents on University
Tempe Metro
Sunset Cove
Las Vegas, NV
Multifamily Investment Sale
524 Units
Completed 1988/1992
Closed June-2015
$50.5 Million
Phoenix, AZ
Multifamily Investment Sale
101 Units
Completed 2014
Closed January-2015
$18.1 Million
Tempe, AZ
Multifamily Investment Sale
408 Units
Completed 2010
Closed August-2014
$47.05 Million
Las Vegas, NV
Multifamily Investment Sale
392 Units
Completed 1989
Closed September-2013
$21.7 Million
Tempe, AZ
Equity Procurement
423 Units
To be completed 2018
Under LOI
Terms Confidential
Page 27 | Metro Las Vegas Overview Q3 - Q4 2015
Tempe, AZ
Student Housing Sale
225 Units
Completed 2010
Closed July-2014
$38.7 Million
Optima Kierland Center
Scottsdale, AZ
Equity Procurement
226 Units in Phase I
To be completed 2017
Closed August-2015
Terms Confidential
Sedona at Lone Mountain
Las Vegas, NV
Multifamily Note Sale
321 Units
Completed 1999
Closed April-2012
$11.1 Million
Metro Las Vegas Overview
Q3 - Q4 2015
CUNNINGHAM │STEELE