Titel - Espon

ESPON 2006 Programme Action 1.1.4:
THE SPATIAL EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
AND MIGRATION
Lead partner and coordinator:
Swedish Institute for Growth Policy Studies (ITPS), Stockholm, Sweden
Partners:
Centre for Geographical Studies (CEG), University of Lisbon Foundation, Lisbon
University of Vienna, Institute for Geography and Regional Research, Vienna
IGEAT, ULB, Bruxelles
University G.d'Annunzio, Department of Economy and History of the Territory, Pescara
NIBR, Oslo
VÁTI, Budapest
Matrix for policy implications and policy recommendations
Levels
Micro
Objectives
Sustainable development
Competitiveness
Territorial and social cohesion
Policentricicity – both means and objective
Meso
Macro
Policy recommendation 1: Stimulate natural population increase and TFR
Points of departure:
•
Difficult through policy recommendations stimulate natural population development
•
Natural population development – cohort phenomenon
•
Natural population development – often a result of the age and gender structure
Recommendations:
•
A common (European) social and family policy and a more active labour market policy
that stimulates higher fertility
•
Better female labour market conditions stimulate childbearing
•
Out-migration regions – more attractive
•
Better child care – public or private (the three generation family is gone, defamilisation
is a fact)
TFR 1999 to the left (more disaggregated in appendix A)
Natural growth potential 2020 to the right
Natural growth potential 2000 (2020)
Fertility rate in 1999
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Reykjavik
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Reykjavik
Helsinki
Helsinki
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Oslo
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Oslo
Stockholm
Tallinn
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Tallinn
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Stockholm
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Moskva
Moskva
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Riga
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Riga
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Kobenhavn
Kobenhavn
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Dublin
Vilniaus
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Minsk
Dublin
Vilniaus
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Minsk
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Amsterdam
London
Berlin
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Amsterdam
Warsaw
London
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Berlin
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The content of this map
does not necessarily
reflect the opinion of
the espon monitoring
committee
Praha
Luxembourg
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the espon monitoring
committee
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Kiev
Bruxelles
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Paris
Warsaw
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Kiev
Bruxelles
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Paris
Luxembourg
Praha
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WienBratislava
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Budapest
Bern
Wien Bratislava
Kishinev
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Kishinev
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Budapest
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Bern
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Ljubljana
Zagreb
Ljubljana
Zagreb
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Bucuresti
Beograd
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Bucuresti
Beograd
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Sarajevo
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Sarajevo
Sofiya
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Madrid
Lisboa
Skopje
Roma
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Sofiya
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Madrid
Ankara
Tirane
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Lisboa
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Skopje
Roma
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Ankara
Tirane
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Athinai
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Athinai
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Nicosia
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Nicosia
Valetta
© Project 1.1.4 ITPS 2003
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Valetta
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400 Kilometers
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Number of children
per women
0.75 - 1.17
1.17 - 1.45
1.45 - 1.69
1.69 - 2.02
2.02 - 2.42
No Data
© Project 1.1.4 ITPS 2003
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Origin of data: EU15 and CC's: Eurostat,
Norway and Switzerland: National Statistics Offices
Source: ESPON Database
400 Kilometers
population 20-29 in 2020/population 20-29 in 2000
Cohort 1991-2000/cohort 1971-80
Sources : Eurostat and national sources
for Switzerland and Norway + own estimate
0.42 - 0.6
0.6 - 0.7
0.7 - 0.84
0.84 - 0.98
0.98 - 1.58
Origin of data: EU15 and CC's: Eurostat,
Norway and Switzerland: National Statistics Offices
Source: ESPON Database
Policy recommendation 2: Hamper future asymmetrical east-west
migration and stimulate symmetrical migratory flows
Implications:
• Increased east-west migration erodes territorial cohesion.
• Out-migration of qualified people have negative consequences
on spatial development and competitiveness
Recommendations at meso and macro levels:
• Stimulate symmetrical migratory flows
• Close the gap in living conditions (in a wider sense) between
regions and nations – symmetrical migratory flows
• Stimulate structural transformation of the economy among the
new EU-members – risks in short run but necessary in the long
• Stimulate regional enlargement (even across borders) –
larger local labour markets, decreased mismatch
• Better accessibility
•
Don’t hamper migration in general – migration and mobility are
lubricants for economic development!
International migratory balance (left) and immigrations rates (right)
External migratory balance, 1996-1999
External immigration
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Reykjavik
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Reykjavik
Helsinki
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Oslo
Helsinki
Tallinn
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Stockholm
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Oslo
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Tallinn
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Stockholm
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Moskva
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Riga
Moskva
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Riga
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Kobenhavn
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Dublin
Vilniaus
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Kobenhavn
Minsk
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Dublin
Vilniaus
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Minsk
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Amsterdam
London
Berlin
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Warsaw
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Amsterdam
London
Kiev
Bruxelles
Berlin
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Warsaw
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The content of this map
does not necessarily
reflect the opinion of
the espon monitoring
committee
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Paris
Luxembourg
Praha
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The content of this map
does not necessarily
reflect the opinion of
the espon monitoring
committee
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Paris
Wien Bratislava
Luxembourg
Praha
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Kishinev
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Budapest
Bern
Kiev
Bruxelles
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WienBratislava
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Kishinev
Budapest
Bern
Ljubljana
Zagreb
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Bucuresti
Beograd
Ljubljana
Zagreb
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Sarajevo
Bucuresti
Beograd
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Sofiya
Sarajevo
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Madrid
Lisboa
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Skopje
Roma
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Sofiya
Ankara
Tirane
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Madrid
Skopje
Roma
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Lisboa
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Tirane
Ankara
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Athinai
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Athinai
Nicosia
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Valetta
© Project 1.1.4 ITPS 2003
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Nicosia
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400 Kilometers
Origin of data: EU15 and CC's: Eurostat,
Norway and Switzerland: National Statistics Offices
Source: ESPON Database
Valetta
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annual average balance
for 1000 inhab.
-50 - -3
-3 - -1
-1 - 0
0-2
2-5
5 - 20
no data
exterior immigration rate
for 1000 inhab.
Source : Eurostat, except for Switzerland
and Norway (national statistical institute)
© Project 1.1.4 ITPS 2003
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0 - 1.5
1.5 - 3.5
3.5 - 7
7 - 12
12 - 20
20 - 30
no data
400 Kilometers
Origin of data: EU15 and CC's: Eurostat,
Norway and Switzerland: National Statistics Offices
Source: ESPON Database
Policy recommendation 3: About depopulation
Implications:
• depopulation - a risk for many regions both in short and long term
• depopulation erodes territorial and social cohesion as well as
competitiveness and sustainability
Recommendations:
• Multifunctional perspective on the agricultural sector in combination
with better accessibly and services (micro/meso/macro)
•
Stimulate local and regional services to hamper out-migration
(micro)
•
Sustainable use of resources and avoidance of
environmental/ecological pressure in densely populated regions can
be hampered by a successful policy to hamper out-migration from
depopulation areas (micro/meso)
•
Stimulate growth poles in the depopulation areas (micro/meso)
Population change (left) and relative/structural depopulation (right)
Evolution of the population between 1990 and 2000
Average score on indirect depopulation indicators in 2000
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Reykjavik
Helsinki
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Oslo
Tallinn
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Stockholm
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Moskva
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Riga
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Kobenhavn
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Dublin
Vilniaus
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Minsk
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Amsterdam
London
Berlin
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The content of this map
does not necessarily
reflect the opînion of
the espon monitoring
committee
Warsaw
The content of this map
does not necessarily
reflect the opinion of
the espon monitoring
committee
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Kiev
Bruxelles
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Praha
Luxembourg
Paris
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WienBratislava
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Kishinev
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Budapest
Bern
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Ljubljana
Zagreb
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Bucuresti
Beograd
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Sarajevo
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Sofiya
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Madrid
Lisboa
Skopje
Roma
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Ankara
Tirane
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Athinai
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Nicosia
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Valetta
© Project 1.1.4 ITPS 2003
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0
LEGEND
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average annual growth (%)
no data
< -1.00
-1 - -0.3
-0.3 - 0
0 - 0.3
0.3 - 1
>1
400 Kilometers
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Origin of data : EU 15 and CC's : Eurostat
Norway and Switzerland : National statistics office
Source : ESPON Database
Cartography : IGEAT- ULB
Average score on indirect
depopulation indicators in 2000
very low relative depopulation
low relative depopulation
high relative depopulation
very high relative depopulation
400 Kilometers
Origin of data: EU15 and CC's: Eurostat,
Norway and Switzerland: National Statistics Offices
Source: ESPON Database
Origin of data : EU15 and CC's : Eurostat
Norway and Switzerland : National Statistics Offices
Source : ESPON database
Policy recommendation 4: Replacement migration
Point of departure: Immigration is necessary in various degrees to
hamper the decrease in population and labour force in EU29.
Recommendations:
•
Sustainable development will not be achieved if immigrants are
free to settle down wherever they want in EU29.
•
Immigration policies must promote immigration to peripheral
areas that must be done more attractive.
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Focus on immigrants with different skills and competence
concerning various countries and regions in EU29. The need
differ with regard to the economic and labour market structure.
•
Higher female labour force participation rates
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Stimulate productivity development and structural
transformation – substitute labour with capital and labour with
labour
Replacement migration 2000-2050 (% of population)– model A (the
worst case and unrealistic)
Depopulation trends by NUT2
Assumptions:
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Reykjavi k
Canarias
Guadeloupe
Mar tinique
Réunion
No migration
Helsinki
Osl o
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Guyane
Tallinn
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St ockholm
No productivity development
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Moskva
Madeira
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Ri ga
Kobenhavn
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Vilni aus
Dubli n
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Minsk
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Acores
Amst erdam
London
Berlin
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Warsaw
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Kiev
Bruxel les
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Lux embourg
Paris
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Praha
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Bratislava
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Kishinev
Wien
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Budapest
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Bern
Lj ubljana
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Zagreb
Bucurest i
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Sarajevo
Beograd
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Sof iya
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Madrid
Li sboa
Rom a
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Ankara
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Skopje
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Tirane
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At hi nai
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Ni cosia
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Valet ta
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© Project 1. 1.4 .
Var iation of the popula tion, 2 000-20 50 (% )
Model A
200
40 0
600 Kilomet ers
© Euro Geo graph ics Asso ciatio n f or th e a dm inistrative bo un daries
Orig in o f t he dat a: Eurost at and o the rs
-5 1.1 to -36 .9
-3 6.9 to -25 .9
-2 5.9 to -16 .2
-1 6.2 to 0
0 to 1 6.3
Constant TFR
Sou rc e: ESPO N D ata Ba se a nd o the rs
Gaps and further research
Gaps:
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Difficult to construct longer time series for EU29 at NUTS3
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Migratory movements: origin and/or destination both with EU29 and external migration
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Data on international migration only on NUTS2 - impossible to distinguish intra29migrant from and extraEU29-migrant on NUTS3
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Life expectancy data at regional levels
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For many countries – elderly people are not disaggregated (only 70+)
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The scale problem – more data on NUTS4/5
Further research:
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Migratory gross flows and origin/destination on NUTS3 both with regard to internal and
international migrations – necessary to analyse symmetrical migratory movements
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Educational level of the migrants are in many cases missing
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Age and gender structure at NUTS3 is “shaky” and for many countries nonexistent
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The scale problem: NUTS2 and NUTS3 are in many cases too rough in order to analyse
depopulation and the post-industrial migration and pattern.
•
The development from an industrial to a post-industrial migration and settlement pattern
is a research field that will be increasingly important concerning spatial analyses