Valuing, mapping and conservation of carbon stocks and ecosystem

Valuing, mapping and conservation of carbon stocks and ecosystem

Valuation, Mapping and Conservation of Carbon Stocks and other Ecosystem Services in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania
Dr Simon L. Lewis, University of Leeds, UK
Professor PKT Munishi, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Tanzania
www.valuingthearc.org.uk
Ruth Swetnam, Simon Willcock, Neil Burgess, Andrew Balmford, Jon Lovett, Kerry Turner, Brendan Fisher, Andrew Marshall, Deo Shirima, Rogers Malimbwi Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania
Tanzania
Forest cover (sq km)
Yet undergoing rapid conversion
600
e.g. Ulugurus
500
400
300
200
100
0
Original
1955
1977
2000
Crucial for delivery of ecosystem services
Global priority for biodiversity conservation
… and relatively well documented
Sequence of work
Deciding focal services
Compiling existing data
Elevation and roads
Soils
Sequence of work
Deciding focal services
Collecting new data
Photo: Andy Marshall
Compiling existing data
a3
Sequence of work
Deciding focal services
How flow (→) links areas of production (P) to beneficiaries (B) varies between services:
Compiling existing data
Collecting new data
Modelling production,
flow, use and value
Fisher et al. 2008 Ecol. Econ. 68: 643‐653
Slide 6
a3
Probably delete flow stuff
apb12, 11/4/2009
Sequence of work
Deciding focal services
Compiling existing data
Collecting new data
Modelling production,
flow, use and value
Exploring scenarios of
plausible change
a4
Sequence of work
Deciding focal services
Compiling existing data
Collecting new data
Modelling production,
flow, use and value
Exploring scenarios of
plausible change
Integrating across
services
Slide 8
a4
Probably delete details on costs
apb12, 11/4/2009
Sequence of work
Deciding focal services
Compiling existing data
Collecting new data
Modelling production,
flow, use and value
Exploring scenarios of
plausible change
Integrating across
services
Informing policy
Deciding focal services
Compiling existing data
Collecting new data
Modelling production, flow, use and value
Exploring scenarios of plausible change
Integrating across services and costs
Timber
Non-timber
forest products
Informing policy
Carbon storage +
sequestration
Nature-based
tourism
Pollination
Biodiversity
Water
Policy
messages
Tanzania land cover types
5 km resolution for illustration, and 30 classes reduced to 9
Carbon in the tropics
• Approx. 50% dry mass of a tree is carbon
• Globally, land‐use change in tropics is a major source of carbon to atmosphere (~1.6 Pg C yr‐1, IPCC 2007)
• Undisturbed tropical forests are increasing the amount of carbon they store (~1.3 Pg C yr‐1, Lewis et al. 2009, Nature)
Carbon in Tanzania
• Conversion of forest and savanna woodland for agricultural production
• Extraction of fuel wood
– Most are dependent on trees for daily energy‐use needs
• Rural = 90% firewood (Sheya, 2000)
• Urban = 80% charcoal (Mwampamba, 2007)
• Extraction of timber for local & international markets
• Potential funds to reduce deforestation and degradation a5
Estimating carbon stocks • Define pools
–
–
–
–
–
above‐ground biomass carbon below‐ground biomass carbon coarse woody necromass (dead wood)
fine necromass (leaf litter) soil organic carbon
• Different techniques for each pool
Slide 14
a5
Probably need an extra slide or two here
apb12, 11/4/2009
a10
Estimating carbon stocks • Extensive literature search (incl. grey literature)
– 550 independent carbon pool values, >100 papers, reports, covering >500 ha of spatial coverage
• Collate existing unpublished data
– >2,500 sample plots across country
• Strategic new measurements
– 20 x 1 ha long‐term monitoring forest sites
– 50 x 0.2 ha plots to extend sampling into underrepresented areas in climate‐space
– Masters student working on woodland carbon
– Masters student on C storage in agricultural landscapes Slide 15
a10
slide on developing a surface.
Land cover + look up table (densities) = carbon map
This is tier 2, now working on tier 3
apb12, 11/4/2009
Current best estimate carbon stocks for each land‐cover type
Carbon
Mg / ha‐1
Above, below and soil organic carbon summed
0 – 50
51 ‐100
101‐150
151‐200
200+
Potentially provides a baseline from which to measure changes in the future. 0
45
90
180
270
360
Kilometres
Carbon stocks in the future
Scenarios for 2025:
1. A Hopeful Future Vision (sustainable development) of Land use Change
2. A Less Hopeful Future (Business as Usual) Vision of Land Use Change
Series of workshops in Tanzania developed a series of ‘rules’
of land use change, e.g.,
• Agriculture expands in areas with:
– suitable soils, rainfall >800mm yr-1, <20 km from roads,
expands from existing agricultural areas.
• More charcoal and/or timber extraction in forested areas closer to
roads
• Some many transitions are not possible, e.g. grassland to forest
within 25 yrs
Hopeful vision
Charcoal extraction steady
Pole extraction decreases
Timber extraction steady
Encroachment of agriculture
Improvements in
existing agriculture
Small expansion as
woodlands cleared
Steady expansion
Small decreases through
degradation & logging,
coupled with small scale
expansion of plantation
forests.
Carbon storage
Land cover
Contrasting scenarios
2000
Sus. Development 2025
LOSS
Business as usual 2025
Carbon scenarios in 2025 Present
Land Cover
More sustainable
Scenario 2025
Business as Usual
Scenario 2025
LOSS
0.02 Pg C
LOSS
0.2 Pg C
0.5% of 2000 value
5.1% of 2000 value
3.11 Pg C
1 Pg = 1 x 1015 g = 1 billion metric tonnes
Carbon scenarios in 2025 Present
Land Cover
More sustainable
Scenario 2025
Business as Usual
Scenario 2025
LOSS
0.02 Pg C
LOSS
0.2 Pg C
0.5% of 2000 value
5.1% of 2000 value
3.11 Pg C
1 Pg = 1 x 1015 g = 1 billion metric tonnes
Carbon scenarios in 2025 Present
Land Cover
More sustainable
Scenario 2025
Business as Usual
Scenario 2025
LOSS
0.02 Pg C
LOSS
0.2 Pg C
0.5% of 2000 value
5.1% of 2000 value
3.11 Pg C
1 Pg = 1 x 1015 g = 1 billion metric tonnes
Carbon scenarios in 2025 Present
Land Cover
More sustainable
Scenario 2025
Business as Usual
Scenario 2025
LOSS
0.02 Pg C
LOSS
0.2 Pg C
0.5% of 2000 value
5.1% of 2000 value
3.11 Pg C
1 Pg = 1 x 1015 g = 1 billion metric tonnes
Carbon scenarios: Baseline
Estimated error
‐33.9%
Lower Confidence Interval
Carbon
Mg / ha‐1
+39.7%
Median
Upper Confidence Interval
0 – 50
51 ‐100
101‐150
151‐200
200+
Associated Error
V. low
Low
Medium
High
Climate change and future carbon storage in East Africa
• East Africa is one of few tropical regions where general circulation model (GCM) future climate projections are consistent showing strong future warming and general annual‐mean rainfall increases
Doherty et al. 2010 Global Change Biology, 16, 617-40
Climate change future carbon storage in East Africa
• East Africa is one of few tropical regions where general circulation model (GCM) future climate projections are consistent showing strong future warming and general annual‐mean rainfall increases
Temperature, °C
Precipitation, mm d-1
Climate change future carbon storage in East Africa
• Total carbon storage increases by 3‐13% by 2099 over 1999
• More CO2 and water ↑plant growth, temperature increases ↓ plant growth
Doherty et al. 2010 Global Change Biology, 16, 617-40
Climate change future carbon storage in East Africa
Climate change future carbon storage in East Africa
• Possible changes in dominant plant functional types, favouring trees over grasses
Climate change future carbon storage in East Africa
• Possible changes in dominant plant functional types, favouring trees over grasses
a7
Initial influence on policy
• Influence on National REDD strategy and action plan, incl. Copenhagen side event
• Norwegian REDD investment for Tanzania
• UN REDD Programme focal country
• Tanzanian Government and Universities ahead of many similar counties due to a ‘head start’ with VtA.
a9
Slide 31
a7
Needs updating post-Copenhagen
a9
May need to add conclusions from talk as whole, ad change slide title accordingly
apb12, 11/4/2009
apb12, 11/4/2009
Conclusions
• Maps of spatially explicit ecosystem services can be generated by combining remote sensing land‐cover estimates with corresponding estimates of ecosystem services
• Stakeholders, experts and policy makers can, with modellers, construct potentially realistic alterative scenarios
• These can be used to generate spatially explicit quantitative maps of changes over time in ecosystem service flows and values that can assist policy makers and civil society in policy
formation
Antje Ahrends, York
Andrew Balmford, Cambridge
Julian Bayliss, Cambridge
Neil Burgess, Cambridge and WWF‐US
Brendan Fisher, Univ. East Anglia
Jonathan Green, Cambridge
Rhys Green, Cambridge and RSPB
Aloyce Hepelwa, Univ. Dar es Salaam Kim Howell, Univ. Dar es Salaam George Jambiya, WWF Tanzania George Kajembe, Sokoine University
Jafari Kidegesho, Sokoine University Chris Kirkby, Univ. East Anglia
Andreas Kontoleon, Cambridge Kassim Kulindwa, Univ. Dar es Salaam Simon Lewis, Leeds Jon Lovett, York
Seif Madoffe, Sokoine University
Joseph Makero, Sokoine University
Rogers Malimbwi Sokoine University
Rob Marchant,York Andrew Marshall, York
Boniface Mbilinyi, Sokoine University
Christina Mohammed, Sokoine University Sian Morse‐Jones, Univ. East Anglia Felix Mtalo, Univ. Dar es Salaam Pantaleon Munishi, Sokoine University
Robin Naidoo, WWF‐US
Erik Nelson, Stanford
Willirk Ngalason, Univ. Dar es Salaam
Sana Okayasu, Imperial College
Nasser Olwero, WWF‐US
Jouni Paavola, Leeds
Philip Platts, York
Taylor H. Ricketts, WWF‐US
Mathieu Rouget, Cambridge
Deo Shirima, Sokoine University
Celina Smith, Cranfield
Ruth Swetnam, Cambridge
Heather Tallis, Stanford
Kerry Turner, Univ. East Anglia
Patrick Valimba, Univ. Dar es Salaam
Sue White, Cranfield Simon Willcock, Leeds
Douglas Yu, Univ. East Anglia
www.valuingthearc.org.uk
Contrasting carbon scenarios
Total Carbon storage predicted for baseline and two scenarios
Baseline 2000
Total C
3.11 Pg
More sustainable 2025
Total C
3.10 Pg
1 Pg = 1 x 1015 g = 1 billion metric tonnes
Business‐as‐usual 2025
Total C
2.95 Pg
Carbon
Mg / ha‐1
0 – 50
51 ‐100
101‐150
151‐200
200+