Briefing on the drought in the mid-western and far

Transcription

Briefing on the drought in the mid-western
and far-western hills and mountains and
impact on household food security
Ministry of Agricultural Development
Food Security Cluster Meeting
8 April 2016
Winter drought and associated food security
impacts in the Karnali and Bajura
Situation update and overview
•
Poor monsoon (June-Sept 2015) led to significant production drops in summer
crops (paddy, maize and millet) in the 5 Karnali districts in the mid-western
region and Bajura district in the far-western region.
•
Much lower cumulative rainfall during the winter period (Nov 2015 to Jan
2016) than in a normal year. Winter drought expected to greatly reduce winter
crop (wheat, barley) harvest in May 2016.
•
Deterioration in food security reported by NeKSAP district food security
networks in each of last 3 meetings: July 2015, November 2015, & March 2016.
Situation is forecasted to get worse between March-July 2016.
•
Current drought being referred as “worst in 30 years”. It is as bad as or
worse than last large-scale droughts in 2006 and 2009 in the same region.
•
Region is chronically food insecure & among most vulnerable in Nepal.
•
Immediate and medium-term food security situation is a matter of
great concern.
What we know about the drought and
current food security situation
Latest information available
1. Satellite-based earth observation data and analysis (ICIMOD)
•
Rainfall levels and anomalies
•
Drought conditions based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
•
NDVI (vegetation conditions during growing season)
2. Nepal Food Security Monitoring System (NeKSAP)
•
NeKSAP district food security networks (DFSNs), March 2016 (most recent)
and previous two rounds (November 2015, July 2015)
– NeKSAP food security phase classification by VDC in 6 districts*
– Estimated population in need in VDCs classified as Phase 3 in 6 districts*
(*to be updated for 74 districts in mid-April)
Rainfall in the winter period (Nov-Jan) was
very low compared to the historical average
4 maps of rainfall conditions Map 1
•
Map 1: 30-year average
cumulative rainfall during
months of Nov, Dec, & Jan
•
Map 2: Cumulative rainfall
observed this season
(Nov-2015 to Jan-2016)
•
Map 3: Rainfall deficit
observed this season
(Nov-2015 to Jan-2016)
•
Map 4: Percent difference
in cumulative rainfall this
season (Nov-2015 to Jan2016) compared to the
normal level (30-year
average). E.g., In parts of
Mugu, only 35% of rainfall
received in a normal year
Map 3
Map 2
Map 4
Map: Cumulative rainfall during November 2015 - January 2016
Source: ICIMOD, based on CHIRPS data
Drought conditions across the mid-western
and far-western regions
Agricultural drought conditions in many districts
•
‘Extreme’ drought conditions in parts of 9
districts, mostly in Mugu, Dolpa, Humla,
Jumla, Bajura, and Bajhang.
•
‘Severe’ drought conditions in parts of
many districts in the mid-western and farwestern regions.
Based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
HUMLA
DARCHULA
BAJHANG
MUGU
BAJURA
DOLPA
BAITADI
JUMLA
KALIKOT
DOTI
DADELDHURA
ACHHAM
MUSTANG
KANCHANPUR
JAJARKOT
DAILEKH
KAILALI
RUKUM
SURKHET
BARDIYA
SALYAN
BAGLUNG
ROLPA
PYUTHAN
BANKE
DANG
ARGHAKHANCHI
KAPILBASTU
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Normal
Dry
Moderate drought
Severe drought
Extreme drought
Vegetation conditions in agriculture and
rangelands areas, mid & far western regions
Weak vegetation conditions in 2016 are more severe and
affect a much larger geographic area than last year
January* 2015
January* 2016
Good
* In normal years January is considered
the peak of greenness for the wheat crop.
Weak
Based on MODIS (MOD13Q1) NDVI data
What we know about the drought and
current food security situation
Latest information available
1. Satellite-based earth observation data and analysis (ICIMOD)
•
Rainfall levels and anomalies
•
Drought conditions based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
•
NDVI (vegetation conditions during growing season)
2. Nepal Food Security Monitoring System (NeKSAP)
•
NeKSAP district food security networks (DFSNs), March 2016 (most recent)
and previous two rounds (November 2015, July 2015)
– NeKSAP food security phase classification by VDC in 6 districts*
– Estimated population in need in VDCs classified as Phase 3 in 6 districts*
(*to be updated for 74 districts in mid-April)
NeKSAP food security phase classification,
mid-November 2015 to mid-March 2016
Latest round,
held early March
mid-July 2015 to mid-November 2015
Previous round,
held Nov-2015
mid-March 2015 to mid-July 2015
Previous round,
held July-2015
Number of VDCs/Municipalities by NeKSAP
food security phase classification by round
Results of the last 3 rounds of district food security
network meetings in the 5 Karnali districts and Bajura
Early March
29
59
64
60%
123
83
65
Minimally food insecure
0%
mid-Nov 15 to mid-Mar 16
Moderately food insecure
Source: NeKSAP district food security networks, 2015-2016
40%
20%
16
mid-Jul 15 to mid-Nov 15
80%
Highly food insecure
Proportion of VDCs
37
mid-Mar 15 to mid-Jul 15
100%
Latest food security phase classification map
(mid-November 2015 to mid-March 2016)
RE-CAP OF LATEST NeKSAP UPDATE
Food security impact of the drought and other stressors
Phase 3 = highly food
insecure, or crisis:
Household food consumption
gaps are higher than normal and
households are able to meet
minimum food needs only through
the accelerated depletion of
livelihood assets.
Phase 2 = moderately food
insecure, or stressed
Households are able to
meet minimum food needs with
traditional coping strategies but
are unable to afford some
essential non-food expenditures
without engaging in irreversible
coping strategies.
Phase 1 = minimally food
insecure
Source: NeKSAP district food security networks, March 2016
Households can secure food and
non-food needs without shifting or
changing livelihood strategies.
Population in need, March 2016*
(* to be updated in April following the completion of all 74 NeKSAP district meetings)
Estimated affected population: 150,000 people
• In NeKSAP, the population in need is only calculated for VDCs
classified as Phase 3 (highly food insecure) or higher.
• Currently, approximately 150,000 people in 59 VDCs in 5
districts (see table below) are considered highly food insecure.
Districts
VDCs in
Phase 3
Total population
in Phase 3 VDCs
Population in Affected
Phase 3
population
(affected)
(% of total)
Bajura
13
53,882
43,000
80%
Dolpa
6
6,676
5,300
80%
Mugu
12
23,000
23,000
100%
Humla
18
38,400
38,400
100%
Kalikot
10
49,723
40,000
80%
Total
59
171,745
150,000
~87%
Current food security situation
Contributing factors to deterioration in food security
•
Poor summer crop production: dry spells, late monsoon, fuel shortage, and pests
resulted in production drops ranging from 20-60%, especially in Mugu, Humla and
Bajura.
•
Reduced income: Value of yarchagumba in summer 2015 was significantly lower
than in previous years. Reduced wage income opportunities (20-60%) due to cold
weather and fuel shortage and administrative issues (first trimester of FY 2015/16).
•
Shortage of essential goods and food price increases: Seasonal variations, the
disruptions to cross-border trade with India, the subsequent fuel crisis and reduced
transportation services all negatively affected supply and prices in these areas.
•
Low household food stocks: Households are already running out of food stocks due
to summer crop losses. The winter crop, which will be harvested in May, will not
suffice for more than 1 month.
•
Safety net insufficient: Nepal Food Corporation (NFC) supplies of subsidized rice are
inadequate (e.g., Bajura) or not reaching the neediest (e.g., 6 VDCs in upper Dolpa).
And the poorest cannot afford to buy subsidized rice, even if available.
•
Food gap: Households are expected to have a food gap now (March-April) and during
the monsoon and autumn (June-Nov). Next summer crop harvest is in November.
Livelihood and migration patterns
Livelihoods are at risk and out-migration – as a distress
coping strategy - has increased
•
Major livelihood sources in mid-western and far-western mountains include:
– Agriculture
– Wage labor
– Non timber forest products (NTFPs), e.g., yarchagumba
– Seasonal migration (November-May) to India
•
NeKSAP district food security networks report that out-migration has
increased with the poor summer crop production and on-going winter drought.
For instance:
– In Humla, out-migration is estimated to have increased by 20%;
– In Bajura, it has increased by 30-35%, and it is reported that at least one
member has out-migrated from each household in food insecure VDCs
– In Mugu, it has increased by 25%, but is much higher in worst affected areas,
e.g., in Viyee VDC, >80% of Dalit households have at least one member who
has migrated for employment
Food security outlook in the next 4 months
(mid-March to mid-July 2016)
District food security networks forecast a higher number
of VDCs in Phases 2, 3 and 4 in the Karnali and Bajura
Reasons cited:
NeKSAP food
security
phase
classification
•
Production drops in summer crops
•
Winter lean period: Feb-May
•
Phase 1
Poor production for winter crops
(minimally
expected due to drought: 35 to
food insecure)
80 percent decrease in wheat and
barley (DADO estimates)
Phase 2
(moderately
Income from NTFPs, including
food insecure)
yarchagumba, will help mitigate
situation in some areas. However,
Phase 3
poor snowfall may decrease
(highly food
yarchagumba collection in
insecure)
summer 2016
•
•
Food security situation is likely to
further deteriorate if affected
population do not receive any
assistance
# of VDCs by
phase in midMarch 2016 to
mid-July 2016
Districts and # of VDCs
36
Jumla (16) and Kalikot (20)
47
Jumla (14), Mugu (12),
Kalikot (10), and Bajura
(11)
51
Humla (9), Mugu (12),
Bajura (13), and Dolpa (17)
24
Dolpa (6), Humla (18)
Phase 4
(severely food
insecure)
Partnerships in action
Food security monitoring and analysis in Nepal

The Nepal Food Security Monitoring System (known as NeKSAP, an acronym of Nepal
Khadhya Surakshya Anugaman Pranali) is a nationwide food security monitoring system.

NeKSAP is jointly operated by the Ministry of Agricultural Development and WFP
under the strategic guidance of the National Planning Commission and with support
from the European Union and UK aid from the UK government.

NeKSAP is currently being institutionalized within the government at the national,
regional, and district levels.

The core of NeKSAP is the District Food Security Network (DFSN). DFSNs operate in
74 of 75 districts. DFSN members include the CDO, LDO, DADO, DHO, and other districtlevel line agencies, international and national NGOs, and the private sector (e.g., FNCCI).

Partnerships with the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
(ICIMOD) and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food
Security (CCAFS) have expanded the use and integration of new technologies in crop
monitoring and assessment in NeKSAP.
Technical annex slides
•
Context and background information
•
Seasonality and food consumption patterns in the mountains
•
Market situation, food prices, and household purchasing power, 2013-2015
•
Prevalence of stunting, 2011
•
Integrated food security phase classification, chronic food insecurity analysis,
2014
•
Recurrence of acute food security crises, 2008-2015
•
Food self-sufficiency, 2014-2015
•
Historical perspective (2006 drought)
•
•
NeKSAP food security phase classifications, 2008-2011: 3 years to normalize
after the last major drought in 2009
Technical annex
Context/background information
Mid-western and far-western hills and
mountains:
• Remote areas, limited roads
•
• Low population density
• Chronically poor and food insecure areas•
(see table below)
•
• Frequent shocks lead to recurrent acute
food insecurity (see map, following slide)
Low agricultural production and
productivity (see map, following slide)
Fragile livelihoods
Poor market integration; higher prices
Stunting
(% under-5)
Underweight
(% under-5)
Wasting
(% under-5)
Food
poverty
(% HHs)
Low calorie
intake
(% HHs)
Poverty
(% of HHs)
Dolpa
55.4
42.7
10.5
37.5
45.2
42.8
Jumla
55.8
37.4
10.0
41.1
47.5
49.0
Kalikot
56.7
42.3
10.3
54.6
43.9
57.9
Mugu
56.4
41.7
11.7
47.1
42.5
47.1
Humla
56.0
41.7
12.7
50.3
53.1
56.0
Bajura
57.3
43.4
9.4
74.5
42.6
64.1
District
Source: CBS/World Bank/WFP/Unicef, Small area estimation studies, 2013
Technical annex
Seasonality and food consumption patterns
in the mountains
Source: NPC/CBS/WFP/World Bank/Unicef/AusAID, Nepal thematic report on food security and nutrition, 2013
Market situation, food prices, and household
purchasing power, 2013-2015
Retail price of coarse rice by eco-belt, 2013-15
Markets in the mountains eco-belt
38.5
37.4
42.5
33.9
38.6
42.6
55.7
56.4
Price NPR/kg
0
2013
2014
Mountain
2015
Hill
Terai
Terms of Trade by eco-belt, 2013-15
0
Mountain
2014
Hill
Terai
2015
Average
Source: WFP
4
2013
8.4
8.9
10.1
7.1
8.3
8.8
7.6
8
9.0
12
8.0
•
20
8.6
•
40
9.1
•
60
6.9
Technical annex
•
•
•
Poorly integrated with major and
regional markets (e.g. Nepalgunj)
Poor transportation infrastructure
Frequent supply constraints
Large price differentials between
major/regional and remote
markets
In 2015, prices in the mountains
are more than 73% and 56%
higher than in the Terai and hills,
respectively
In the mountains, the price of rice
increased by 20% in 2015
compared to 2014
Household purchasing power
(terms of trade) is lower in the
mountains due to high food prices
and limited employment
opportunities
Kg of rice from one day’s wage
•
66.8
80
Prevalence of stunting, 2011
Technical annex
Chronic undernutrition is concentrated in the midwestern and far-western hills and mountains
Source: CBS/WFP/World Bank/Unicef, Small area estimation of food insecurity and undernutrition in Nepal, 2014
Technical annex
Integrated food security phase classification,
chronic food insecurity analysis, 2014
Source: MoAD/NeKSAP/FAO, IPC Chronic Food Insecurity Analysis, Nepal, December, 2014.
Technical annex
Recurrence* of acute food security crises,
2008-2015
Source: NeKSAP district food security networks, 2008-2015; time-series analysis, WFP, 2016.
*Recurrence of VDCs classified as Phase 2 or higher by NeKSAP district food security networks, 2008-2015
Technical annex
Food self-sufficiency, 2014/15
•
All the districts in
the Karnali and
the far-western
mountains are
unable to meet
local consumption
requirements
through local
production of
cereals.
•
Dolpa, Kalikot,
Humla and Bajura
were severely
food deficit in
2014/15
Map: Food self-sufficiency at district level, 2014-2015
Source: Ministry of Agricultural Development
2006: Driest winter since 1960 with winter rainfall less than 30% of normal.
Some areas received no precipitation from November 2005 to February 2006.
Technical annex
Winter crops: failed by 50-100%.
Worst affected districts: Humla,
Mugu, Dolpa, Jumla, Kalikot, Bajura,
Dailekh, Jajarkot, Rukum, and Rolpa.
Affected population: approx.
270,000
Technical annex
2009: Widespread dry spell in mid- and far-western hills and mountains.
Winter crops declined sharply:
• 50-70% in far-western hills and
mountains
• 30-50% in the Karnali and RaptiBheri sub-regions
Worst affected districts: Humla,
Mugu, Dolpa, Jumla, Kalikot, Bajura,
Dailekh, Jajarkot, Rukum, Rolpa,
Bajhang, Darchula, Baitadi,
Dadeldhura, Doti, and Achham.
Affected population: approx.
500,000
NeKSAP food security phase classifications,
2008-2011: 3 years to normalize after the
last major drought in 2009
2008
2009
2010
2011
Jan-Mar
Apr-Jun
Jul-Sep
Oct-Dec

Briefing on the drought in the mid-western and far

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