Modeling the spread of aquatic invasive species
Transcription
Modeling the spread of aquatic invasive species
Dr. Nick Phelps April 14, 2016 2016 State of Waters Conference • Model: “representation of a thing” • No model is perfect, but can help • Benefits: – – – – – – Inform evidence-based decision making Test ‘what if’ scenarios Lower management costs and improve outcomes Gain stakeholder support Target surveillance efforts to high risk locations ETC! Focus management efforts in areas of highest risk Questions: 1. Can the AIS be introduced? If so, 2. Can the AIS survive and thrive? Ongoing work on: 1. Natural connections 2. Boater movement • Natural connections – Network model for water connectivity – Much more challenging than expected Waterody ID Verification Network model • Boater connections – Network model for boater movement – MN DNR watercraft inspection data Lake Superior Lake Minnetonka • Boater connections – Network model for boater movement – MN DNR watercraft inspection data – Mobile application for more efficient data collection Summer Winter Papenfuss et al. 2015. Fisheries 40:318-327. Modeling results for zebra mussels: Proximity to positive location Proximity to positive location + boater network Ongoing work on: 1. Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus 2. Nitellopsis obtusa 3. Zebra mussels 4. Eurasian watermilfoil Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus: Current range Bioclimatic variables Ecological niche model Escobar et al. In press. Diseases of Aquatic Organisms. Starry Stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa): Current range Ecological niche model Bioclimatic variables Escobar et al. In review. Scientific Reports. Zebra mussels: Eurasian watermilfoil: Estimate risk with models in series Can AIS be introduced? Can AIS survive and thrive? Provide ranked prioritization based on risk 0.92845 = Leech Lake 0.92122 = Cass Lake … 0.00012 = Mud Lake Estimate risk with integrated model Can AIS be introduced? Can AIS survive and thrive? Provide ranked prioritization based on risk 0.92845 = Leech Lake 0.92122 = Cass Lake … 0.00012 = Mud Lake • • • • • Will not be perfect Model reflects quality and quantity of data Risk is relative Tradeoff: False positive vs. False negative?? Ongoing process, requires effective collaboration and communication RESEARCH will inform variables MANAGEMENT will inform application Invasive fish Aquatic plants Harmful microbes Invertebrates [email protected] Twitter: @FishDoc_UMN Minnesota Aquatic Invasive Species Research Center www.maisrc.umn.edu Receive updates on this and other projects from our e-newsletter! Collaborators: Dr. Luis Escobar Dr. Dan Larkin Dr. Kaushi Kanankege Dr. Mohammad Alkhamis Dr. Andres Perez