Modeling the spread of aquatic invasive species

Modeling the spread of aquatic invasive species

Dr. Nick Phelps
April 14, 2016
2016 State of Waters Conference
• Model: “representation of a thing”
• No model is perfect, but can help
• Benefits:
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Inform evidence-based decision making
Test ‘what if’ scenarios
Lower management costs and improve outcomes
Gain stakeholder support
Target surveillance efforts to high risk locations
ETC!
Focus management efforts in
areas of highest risk
Questions:
1. Can the AIS be introduced?
If so, 2. Can the AIS survive and thrive?
Ongoing work on:
1. Natural connections
2. Boater movement
• Natural connections
– Network model for water
connectivity
– Much more challenging
than expected
Waterody ID
Verification
Network model
• Boater connections
– Network model for boater movement
– MN DNR watercraft inspection data
Lake Superior
Lake Minnetonka
• Boater connections
– Network model for boater movement
– MN DNR watercraft inspection data
– Mobile application for more efficient data collection
Summer
Winter
Papenfuss et al. 2015. Fisheries 40:318-327.
Modeling results for zebra mussels:
Proximity to positive location
Proximity to positive location
+ boater network
Ongoing work on:
1. Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus
2. Nitellopsis obtusa
3. Zebra mussels
4. Eurasian watermilfoil
Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus:
Current
range
Bioclimatic
variables
Ecological niche model
Escobar et al. In press. Diseases of Aquatic Organisms.
Starry Stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa):
Current range
Ecological niche model
Bioclimatic variables
Escobar et al. In review. Scientific Reports.
Zebra mussels:
Eurasian watermilfoil:
Estimate risk with
models in series
Can AIS be introduced?
Can AIS survive and thrive?
Provide ranked prioritization
based on risk
0.92845 = Leech Lake
0.92122 = Cass Lake
…
0.00012 = Mud Lake
Estimate risk with
integrated model
Can AIS be introduced?
Can AIS survive and thrive?
Provide ranked prioritization
based on risk
0.92845 = Leech Lake
0.92122 = Cass Lake
…
0.00012 = Mud Lake
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Will not be perfect
Model reflects quality and quantity of data
Risk is relative
Tradeoff: False positive vs. False negative??
Ongoing process, requires effective collaboration
and communication
RESEARCH will inform variables
MANAGEMENT will inform application
Invasive fish
Aquatic plants
Harmful microbes
Invertebrates
[email protected]
Twitter: @FishDoc_UMN
Minnesota Aquatic Invasive Species Research Center
www.maisrc.umn.edu
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Collaborators:
Dr. Luis Escobar
Dr. Dan Larkin
Dr. Kaushi Kanankege
Dr. Mohammad Alkhamis
Dr. Andres Perez