GLADSTONE BARRAMUNDI 2017 Season 2017 forecasts versus

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GLADSTONE BARRAMUNDI 2017 Season 2017 forecasts versus
GLADSTONEBARRAMUNDI2017
Season2017forecastsversusactual–mid-seasonJune2017review
Therewere11forecastsmadeforBarramundiinsizeoffish,catchrates,trendsinstocks,
recruitmentandcommercialcatch.Taggerscatchratesdonotreflectthecatchratesofthetotal
fishingpopulationhoweverastaggersaregenerallyinthetop20%offishersthatcatchmostfish
theircatchesaremoresensitivetochangesinfishstocksandarecomparablefromyeartoyear.
Forecastsareavailableatwww.crystal-bowl.com.au.
Taggers
ª
ª
ª
ª
ª
Ofthe11forecastsfortaggers4(36%)werewithintheforecastrangeorwith10%ofthe
forecastrange
ForecastforsizerangeoffishwereaffectedbyfishspillingfromLakeAwoongainApr2017
howeverthereisnochangeproposedtotheforecast
CatchrateswereontrackasforecastuntilthespillingoffishfromAwoongaandforecasts
havebeenrevisedtotakeaccountofthisinfluxoffish
Forecastwasforpoor/moderaterecruitmentandiscurrentlyassessedaspoorwhile
recruitmentintheadjacentFitzroyRiverisassessedasstronginlinewithenvironmental
conditions
ThetrendinstocklevelswasdownwarduntilfishspilledfromAwoongahoweverithasnot
beenpossibletoassesstheoveralleffectonstocks
Commercials
ª
ª
ª
ª
Forthecommercialcatchthedataareonlyavailablefor2016whiledatafor2017is
incomplete
Therewerenoforecastsmadeforcommercialcatchin2017duetotheuncertaintyineffort
shiftresultsfromtheintroductionoftheCapricorniaNetFreeZone
Commercialeffortincreasedby51%in2016comparedwith2015
Theincreaseincommercialeffortislikelytoreflectsomeoftheeffortdisplacedfromthe
CapricorniaBayNetFreeZone
Environmentalconditions
ª DryconditionslargelypersistedthroughtoApr2017whentheremnantsofCycloneDebbie
broughtfloodingtomuchofcoastalCentralQueensland
ª ClimateoutlookisforneutralconditionsthroughtoFeb2018
ª Rainfallforecastsareonlyavailablefor3monthsandtheforecastisfora45-55%chanceof
exceedingmedianrainfallfromJun-Aug
InfofishAustralia
June2017
Trophyfish>1m
Legal-trophyfish
580-999mm
Undersizefish200579mm
FORECAST
2017
5%(0-15%)
70%(65-85%)
25%(15-35%)
ACTUAL
June2016
9.6%
51.1%
39.3%
GRAPH
GLADSTONEBARRAMUNDISIZES2017
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
PERCENTAGE
MEASURE
FITZROY
UNDERSIZED
LEGAL
TROPHY
200-579MM
580-999MM
1000+MM
FORECAST
Averagelengthoffish 2008-2017
HighestLowest
LEGAL-TROPHY
20132009
72.927.6
TROPHY
20112009
13.51.1
HighestLowest
20152009
755524
Decrease9.2%
from2016-2017
GLADSTONEBARRAMUNDISIZES
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
UNDERSIZED
2012
2013
2014
LEGAL-TROPHY
2015
2016
2017
TROPHY
BARRAMUNDIAVERAGELENGTH
800
700
600
LENGTH(MM)
Percentageoffishin
sizerange
TAGGERS
500
400
300
200
100
0
Overall
1.1 (0.9-1.3)
2.0(1.8-2.2)
Legalfish
0.8(0.6-1.0)
1.5(1.3-1.7)
Overall
2.2
Legalfish
1.6
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Barramunditagsin
Gladstoneindicatorof
trendsinstock
Mostlikelyandrange
Revised
Taggedfish2017
(Jan-Dec)
150(50-250)
400(300-500)
-30%(-20--40%)
+120%(+100+140%)
HighestLowest
ALL
20122008
3.40.6
LEGAL
20132009
2.50.2
Taggedfish2017
(Jan-Jun)
286
+57%
comparedwith
2016
2017
2
1
0.5
CATCHRATE
CATCHRATE
ALLBARRA
LEGALBARRA
GLADSTONEBARRAMUNDICATCHRATE
2017-2016
80
PERCENTAGECHANGE
2017
60
40
20
0
ALLBARRAMUNDI
-20
-40
LEGALBARRAMUNDI
PREDICTED
ACTUAL
GLADSTONEBARRAMUNDICATCHRATE
4.50
4.00
3.50
FISH/FISHER/DAY
Overall
+62.3%
Legalfish
+63.8%
2016
1.5
0
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
ALLBARRACATCHRATE
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
LEGALBARRACATCHRATE
BARRAMUNDITAGSGLADSTONE
ESTIMATEANDRANGE
1600
1400
ESTIMATEDTAGS
Actualcatchrates
taggers
Fish/tagger/day
Overall
-15%(-5%--25%)
+50%(+30-+70%)
Legalfish
-20%(-10--30%
+50%(+30-+70%)
2015
2.5
FORECAST RANGE
Catchrates
percentagechange
comparedwith2016
Revised
2014
GLADSTONEBARRAMUNDICATCHRATE
FORECASTANDACTUAL2017
FISH/FISHER/DAY
Actualcatchrates
taggers
Fish/tagger/day
Revised
2008
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Poor
GLADSTONEBARRAMUNDIRECRUITMENT
0.7
35
0.6
30
0.5
25
0.4
20
0.3
15
0.2
10
0.1
5
0
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
GLADSTONERECRUITS/FISHER/DAY
Lownumbersof
trophyfish
CLIMATE INDEX
BARRAMUNDIINGLADSTONEHARBOUR
1400
1200
LENGTH(MM)
GladstoneHarbour
andBarramundi
CLIMATEINDEX
Poor/Moderate
0.1(0.05-0.15)
RECRUITS.FISHER/DAY
Recruitment
Recruits/fisher/day
1000
800
600
400
1/1/16
31/12/16
1/1/15
BARRAMUNDIANDCALLIOPEFLOWS
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
FLOW(ML)
Fishspilledfrom
AwoongainApr
2017
1/1/18
1/1/17
1/1/15
1/1/16
LENGTH(MM)
700000
1400
600000
1200
500000
1000
400000
800
300000
600
200000
400
FLOW(ML)
Nodataavailable
for2017
Commercialcatch
GridsS29/S30/S31
Catch(tonnes)
Catchrate(kg/day)
Catch
30(27-33)
Catchrate
100(90-110)
Catch2016
27.2
(Feb-Oct)
Catchrate
53.8
(Feb-Oct)
Days
505
(Feb-Oct)
51%increase
from2015-2016
1/1/18
1/1/17
1/1/16
1/1/15
300
600
250
500
200
400
150
300
100
200
50
100
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
CATCHRATE/GLADSTONE
GLADSTONEDAYSFISHED
1400
1200
1000
DAYS
Noforecast
LENGTH(MM)
GLADSTONE
Commercialeffort
GridsS29/S30/S31
Daysfished
0
GLADSTONEBARRAMUNDIGRIDSS29/S30/S31
CATCHANDCATCHRATE
CATCH(T)
Didnotspillin
2016
SpilledinApr
2017
1/1/14
1/1/13
1/1/12
1/1/11
1/1/10
1/1/09
200
1/1/07
0
1/1/08
100000
Awoongadamlevels
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
BARRAMUNDIANDBOYNEFLOW
FLOW(ML)
BoyneRiverflowand
Barramundi
(Flowdataonlyto
2012)
1/1/14
1/1/13
1/1/12
1/1/11
1/1/10
1/1/08
1/1/07
1/1/09
100000
0
LENGTH(MM)
Lownumbersof
trophyfish
CPUE(KG/DAY)
FLOW(ML)
CalliopeRiverflow
andBarramundi
HARBOUR
LENGTH(MM)
CALLEMONDAH
31/12/13
1/1/12
31/12/12
1/1/11
31/12/09
1/1/08
31/12/08
0
1/1/07
200
800
600
400
200
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Climateoutlookto
Feb2018
BOMNINO34
Neutral
conditions
throughtoFeb
2018
Rainfalloutlook
Jun-Aug2017
BOMforecast
45-55%chanceof
exceedingmedian
rainfall
DATASOURCES
DatausedintheGladstoneBarramundiCrystalBowlare:
ª TagandcatchrecordsfromGladstoneSportfishingClubandotherlocaltaggersformaps
GLD,CR02,BRGandCISGfromhttp://qld.info-fish.net
ª Recapturerecordsoftaggedfishhttp://qld.info-fish.net
ª CommercialcatchforQFISHgridsS29,S30andS31fromhttp://qfish.daf.qld.gov.au
ª RecruitmentsurveysforSuntagmapsGLD,CR02,BRGandCISGfromhttp://qld.info-fish.net
ª RiverflowrecordsforCalliopeRiverattheCastlehopestation132001Afromhttps://watermonitoring.information.qld.gov.au
ª RiverflowrecordsfortheBoyneRiverattheBoynestation133005Ato2012from
https://water-monitoring.information.qld.gov.au
ª AwoongaDamWaterLevelsandRainfalldatafromGAWBhttp://www.gawb.qld.gov.au/
ª RainfallrecordsforGladstonestation049083fromhttp://www.bom.gov.au/
ª StockedfishrecordsforLakeAwoongaandLakeCallemondah

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