Trotman Belize National Consultation Final

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Trotman Belize National Consultation Final
Status of Capacities for
Climate Services Provision in the
Caribbean
Adrian Trotman
Chief, Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize
30 October to 1 November 2013,
Belize City, Belize.
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
PRIMARY FUNCTIONS
• Train various categories of
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meteorological and hydrological
personnel
Operate as a centre of research
in meteorology, hydrology and
associated sciences
Data collection, storage, &
dissemination
Maintain, repair, and calibrate
meteorological & hydrological
instruments
Advise regional governments on
matters related to meteorology &
hydrology
Provide consulting services to
industry
Now Regional Climate Centre in
demonstration phase
An arm of the
Caribbean Meteorological
Organisation
The Caribbean Climate Outlook
Forum (CariCOF)
Approach I
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Approach II
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Seasonal Rainfall Prediction with use of
climate prediction models Global and Regional
3 to 6 months
forecasts
Monthly Caribbean
climate outlook
newsletter
Seasonal climate
and impacts monitoring
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Seasonal climate
forecasts
http://www.cimh.edu.bb/?p=precipoutlook
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Climate Monitoring
Example
Caribbean Drought and
Precipitation Monitoring Network
Focus next on temperature
Monitoring
Why concerns over drought?
Wet season rainfall as a
percentage of annual
rainfall (Enfield and
Alfaro, 1999).
Seasonal Impacts
Future dryer and warmer regime likely to
increase frequency of drought episodes
Moving 10 year averages of
rainfall at Edgecumbe, Barbados
(Burton 1995).
Impacts potentially more severe
during drier phases.
Types of Drought
Response
Caribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring
Network (CDPMN)
CDPMN launched under Caribbean Water Initiative CARIWIN in
January 2009 expected to be fully operational by the end of 2010
Two Scales of Monitoring
• Caribbean Basin
• Country-level
• Precipitation status monitored using a number of indices
• Final precipitation status determined, by consensus, by a
network of persons from different sectors, institutions and
communities embracing the diversity in definitions and
impacts of drought
• Short term and seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide a
projection of future drought (1 - 6 months possible)
Depicting the 2009-2010 Drought
MONITORING:
Caribbean SPI and Deciles (Caribbean Drought and Precipitation
Monitoring Network)
PREDICTION:
Caribbean seasonal precipitation outlook (CIMH and CariCOF)
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In total contrast to 2010, the 2011 and 2012 dry seasons were
forecasted to be wetter than normal in the eastern Caribbean, and
that is how they turned out
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CARICOM/Brazil programme in DRR
Drought
• Implemented by CIMH
• Pilot Countries: Grenada, St. Lucia, Jamaica
• Training in drought monitoring and planning
(assisted by NDMC)
• Provision of monitoring instruments
(illustrative)
• Upgrade of CWM
• Draft Implementation plans for DEWIS (to
Cabinet)…
• In the context of a Drought Management
framework
Framework for National Drought
Management
Focus on Drought Early Warning & Information
Systems
Caribbean Agrometeorological
Initiative (CAMI)
An example of Weather and Climate Services
www.cimh.edu.bb/cami
CAMI
• Funded by the EU under the ACP S&T Programme
• Implemented by CIMH (Project Manager), CARDI,
WMO and Ten National Meteorological Services
• to increase and sustain agricultural productivity at
the farm level in the Caribbean region through
improved applications of weather and climate
information using an integrated and coordinated
approach
• Information providers, users and media
• www.cimh.edu.bb/cami
Specific Activities of the Action 1
• Seasonal Rainfall Prediction through analysis of
long-term climatic data and use of seasonal to
inter-annual climate prediction models
• Use of rainy season prediction and near-real
time weather information to support
management decisions such as especially
irrigation scheduling
• Working with the agricultural research and
extension agencies in developing an effective
pest and disease forecasting system
Specific Activities of the Action 2
• Preparation and wide diffusion of a userfriendly weather and climate information
newsletters/bulletins
• Organization of regular forums with the
farming community and agricultural extension
agencies to promote a better understanding of
the applications of weather and climate
information
• Building capacity of the Meteorological and
Agricultural Services and research institutions
Statistical
Analyses
Crop and
Irrigation
Simultion
Developing
forecasting
systems for
selected pests and
diseases
Supporting management
decisions such as for irrigation
scheduling and quantities
Using Aquacrop and INSTAT for
example
Means for Dissemination and
Effective Communication – Strategy involving
any media that can reach farmers in a
language they can understand
Also a Regional Monthly Bulletin – already 23 volumes
Preparation and dissemination of a user-friendly
weather and climate bulletins and information
Daily, week ten-daily, monthly, seasonally
Print, radio, television, mobile/cellular, telecentres
Regular forums with the farming
community and agricultural
extension agencies to promote
a better understanding of the
applications of weather and
climate information and
feedback for Met Services
Seasonal and weather Forecasting
and information, drought, irrigation,
crop simulation, pests and diseases
825 participants during 27
forums engaged
Effective Data Management and
Observation System
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Rescue and Digitise hard copy information
Data sharing, protocols
All data to a centralised system
Database developed – To pursue light versions – Synchrony
Denser, strategic climate observation network, Global data
systems, Remote Sensing
• IT support
Recommendations for
Policy Makers
Adequate Human Resources and structural changes at NMS that support weather and climate services for
agriculture.
Financial resources for developing competent staff to deliver agrometeorological services.
Support specialised training for staff of Agricultural Extension Services in agrometeorology.
Policies and protocols put in place within and between government, statuary departments and research
institutions that encourage collaboration, data sharing and centralizing of agrometeorological data.
Farmers forums to continue, led by the NMSs, particularly just prior to the beginning of the wet/hurricane
and dry seasons.
Radio and television programmes and newspaper articles can be used to supplement the awareness.
Pursue a robust Strategy for Communication with the assistance of communication specialists, at the national
and regional levels, ensuring efficient and effective dissemination of information.
Financial resources made available for adequate, well maintained observation networks of higher spatial
density that include Automatic Weather Stations.
Particular emphasis should be placed on enhancing the quality and detail of biological information.
National Tri-partite committees, made up of meteorologists, extension officers and farmers as core groups
ratified by government and report to the Ministry of Agriculture, particularly at times of threatening weather
and climate conditions. These committees can be either expanded to, or play an advisory to role of Disaster
Risk Reduction Committees in Agriculture .
Potential in
Water Resources Management
Developing Useful Hydrological Services
From Weather and Climate Science
• High-resolution weather and climate scenarios are used in
conjunction with hydrological models to predict water balance
and dynamics for complex topography
– Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
– Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) model
– ParFlow (coupled with CLM and WRF) hydrologic model
• Operationalize predictions of spatial and temporal variability of
climate-induced hydrologic changes
– Short-term : generation of monthly, seasonal and annual hydrologic
forecasts
– Long-term : comprehensive projections of hydrologic impacts to year 2100
• changes in hydro-climate variability and extremes
• causes of changes in extreme behavior
– Near-term : decadal and multi-decadal hydrologic predictions including
hydro-climatic predictions to year 2035
Climate Forecasts in Hydrological Terms
• Downscale to resolve
mismatch in spatial and
temporal scales
• Hydrologic models
– solve equations subject to
meteorological forcing
– Compute water balance:
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runoff
evaporation
transpiration
soil water storage
percolation/recharge
HYDROLOGICAL / CROP MODEL
Example Output
Day of Year
Thank you

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