What is a National Vulnerability Assessment Committee

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What is a National Vulnerability Assessment Committee
SOUTHERN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
VAC
SADC FANR
Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT COMMITTEE
Vulnerability
Assessment Committee
Emergency Food Security Assessments, August 2002
Covering … Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe
Presentation of
Major Findings, Conclusions and Recommendations
Johannesburg
17 September 2002
What is the Regional SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee (RVAC)??
The SADC-FANR VAC is ...
... a mulit-agency group of technical experts
from …
... the FANR Food Security Programme and
from associated technical agencies …
… working at the regional level to promote and
support vulnerability assessment in the
region.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What is the Regional SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee (RVAC)??
Members of the VAC include ...
UNICEF
REWU
FSTP
FSDP
RRSU
SDU
Associated donor agencies include ...
DFID
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What is a National
Vulnerability Assessment Committee (NVAC)??
• Like the Regional VAC, National VACs are
consortiums of government, NGO, UN agencies
and other partners concerned with people’s
livelihoods and their vulnerability to events that
could result in food insecurity.
• National VACs receive technical, institutional, and
financial support from the Regional SADC FANR
VAC, based in Harare.
• National VACs led the Emergency Assessments in
the six countries.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
Why Undertake
Emergency Food Security Assessments??
They broaden our understanding of who is affected, where
they are, how they are affected and what can be done about
it, by answering questions such as …
• What is the net food deficit effect at district, community and
household level, for different livelihood zones and wealth groups?
• What are the livelihoods and vulnerabilities of various population
groups, such as small-scale farmers, farm workers and the urban
poor in terms of access to food and cash?
• What coping strategies and capacities are available to people (food,
income, expenditure strategies, etc.)?
• How can agencies respond in a way that saves lives, maintains
nutritional standards and supports livelihoods?
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What was the Process for the
Emergency Food Security Assessments?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The overall assessment process and methodology was coordinated and backstopped by the SADC
Food Agriculture and Natural Resources Vulnerability Assessment Committee.
National Vulnerability Assessment Committees led the assessments in each country with broad
participation from key partners and stakeholders.
The assessment methodology draws from a livelihood-based vulnerability assessment framework.
Secondary data analysis provided an overview of macro-level processes and trends.
Primary data collection and analysis was focused at the district (160 visited), community (378 visited)
and household (4,457 visited) levels.
The assessment methodology linked nutritional surveys with household interviews in four of the six
countries (Lesotho, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe).
This is the first in a series of three rolling emergency food security assessments following the April/
May FAO/WFP CFSAM. A second assessment, with similar objectives, will be complete by midDecember. The final assessment will take place towards the end of the cropping season.
In between assessments, the SADC FANR VAC will assist affected countries in monitoring food
security conditions, and will undertake special studies on topics or areas of particular concern.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What are the Key Assessment findings??
LESOTHO HIGHLIGHTS
•
Government estimates 2001/02 cereal
production at 121,500MT, which is 29
percent below the five year average. This
compares with preliminary FAO/WFP cereal
production estimates of 54,000MT in April.
•
Approximately 160,000 people, or eight
percent of the rural population, will require
emergency food assistance from
September through November 2002.
•
As stocks become depleted, this figure will
jump 650,000 people, or 34% of the
population prior to next year’s harvest.
•
Total emergency cereal needs for Lesotho
for the period September 1st – March 31st
is 35,760MT.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What are the Key Assessment findings??
MALAWI HIGHLIGHTS
 2001-2002 maize production (1.6 million MT) was 28%
lower than the five-year average and 6% less than the
previous year.
 Malawi faces a deficit of 572,000 MT maize equivalent.
The government is planning to import 250,000 MT of
maize to be sold at a subsidized prices.
 21% of the population (2,200,000 people) are in need
of food assistance between September and November,
rising to 29% (3,250,000) in December-March.
 Many households overstretched their coping
mechanisms last year, reducing their resilience and
increasing their vulnerability in the face of the
continued food shortages.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What are the Key Assessment findings??
MOZAMBIQUE HIGHLIGHTS
• Overall cereal production in 2002 was
approximately 5% higher than in 2001.
• 590,000 people are in need of assistance (3%
of the population), requiring 48,000MT of cereal
• Poor transportation infrastructure makes it uneconomical to move food from the surplus north
to the deficit south.
• Food prices could increase to levels that would
be beyond the reach of the poorer households.
• Cereal imports are currently ahead of plans and
the winter crop is progressing well in areas that
have not been affected by poor production in
the main season.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What are the Key Assessment findings??
SWAZILAND HIGHLIGHTS
• Crop production was 33% lower than the
five-year average resulting in a domestic
food gap of 138,000MT, which is 71% of the
total domestic requirement.
• A significant number of households (29%)
have either no adults or only one adult in
the 19 – 60 year old age bracket. This
could be attributed to the HIV/AIDS
epidemic as well as to absent males
seeking work elsewhere.
• Forty one percent of households are
headed by females. This results in less
income from employment and less labour
for productive activities.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What are the Key Assessment findings??
ZAMBIA HIGHLIGHTS
• Cereal production was 738,000 MT,
leaving a domestic cereal gap of
711,000 MT.
• Some 2.4 million people will require
food aid through November, increasing to almost 2.9 million people by
March 2003.
• The cumulative cereal food aid
requirements for the period
September to March 2003 are
224,200 MT.
• More than 70 percent of households
have no seeds.
• Restrictions on GM foods has
disrupted the food aid pipeline.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What are the Key Assessment findings??
ZIMBABWE HIGHLIGHTS
• Cereal availability is a critical factor with
a deficit of 1.65 million MT.
• To-date, GMB has imported 335,000 MT,
and humanitarian food relief 70,600 MT.
• 486,000 MT of cereal food aid is required
from September through March.
• Through November, 4.5 million people (33%
of the population) will require assistance,
rising to 6.7 million people (49% of the
population) through March.
• Of those requiring assistance, 5.9 million
are rural, including 489,000 (ex)commercial farm workers. 850,000 urban
residents also require assistance.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What are the Key Assessment Findings??
REGIONAL CONSOLIDATION
•
Zimbabwe is threatened with a major humanitarian crisis and
possible famine due to serious food shortages caused by erratic
rainfall, a declining economy, and recent policy changes.
•
Malawi is suffering from structural food insecurity, exacerbated by
two consecutive poor harvest. High levels of poverty leave many
households with limited access to staple foods.
•
In Zambia, poor households in areas affected by drought face both
physical food shortages and constrained access to food due to
chronic poverty. There is growing concern over the threat of urban
food insecurity.
•
While Lesotho is structurally dependent on food imports, declining
productivity due to environmental degradation, couple with low
purchasing power due to reduced labour opportunities are
exacerbating food security conditions.
•
Although Swaziland is a lower-middle income country, consecutive
poor harvest the past two years exceed the government and private
sector capacities to fill the cereal gap.
•
Despite good production in key cereal producing regions of northern
Mozambique, drought condition in some southern and central areas
have lead to pockets of food shortages, with access constrained by
poor infrastructure and high market prices.
What is the Current Food Security Situation
at the National Level??
2001/02 CEREAL PRODUCTION (MT)
compared with the past 5-year average
1,759,000
(15%)
738,000
(33%)
759,000
(65%)
Slightly More
1,767,000
(5%)
0 – 25% Less
25 – 50% Less
+ 50% Less
70,000
(22%)
121,500
(29%)
SOURCE: REWU, September 2002
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What is the Current Food Security Situation
at the National Level??
2002/03 DOMESTIC CEREAL GAP AND IMPORT PROGRESS
2001/02
2001/02 Cereal
Cereal
Commercial
Commercial Food
Food Aid
Aid Remaining
Remaining
Production
Production ++
Domestic
Domestic
Domestic
Domestic
Imports
Imports
Imports
Imports Cereal
Cereal Gap/
Gap/
11
Opening
Opening Stocks
Stocks Requirements
Received
Received
Received
Surplus
Surplus
Requirements Cereal
Cereal Gap
Gap Received
Lesotho
Lesotho
140,000
140,000
395,500
395,500
255,500
255,500
56,500
56,500
3,000
3,000
196,000
196,000
Malawi
Malawi
22
1,847,000
1,847,000
2,124,000
2,124,000
277,000
277,000
42,000
42,000
24,000
24,000
211,000
211,000
Mozambique
Mozambique
1,876,000
1,876,000
2,256,000
2,256,000
380,000
380,000
233,000
233,000
63,000
63,000
84,000
84,000
72,500
72,500
193,500
193,500
121,000
121,000
28,000
28,000
5,000
5,000
88,000
88,000
Zambia
Zambia
761,000
761,000
1,445,000
1,445,000
684,000
684,000
43,000
43,000
46,000
16,000
16,000
595,000
625,000
625,000
Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe
929,000
929,000
2,583,000
2,583,000
1,654,000
1,654,000
335,000
335,000
71,000
71,000
1,248,000
1,248,000
Swaziland
Swaziland
1. Excludes stock replenishment
2. Includes cassava maize equivalent
SOURCE: National and Regional Early Warning Units
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What is the Current Food Security Situation
at the National Level??
POPULATIONS IN NEED OF EMERGENCY FOOD AID
AND CEREAL REQUIREMENTS
1 September 2002 to 31 March 2003
CFSAM
Estimate
Max No. of
People in Need
CFSAM
Estimate
Max % of Total
Population
Cumulative
Requirements
Zimbabwe
6,075,000
6,700,000
46%
49%
486,000 MT
Malawi
3,188,000
3,300,000
28%
29%
237,000 MT
Zambia
2,329,000
2,900,000
21%
26%
224,000 MT
Lesotho
444,800
650,000
20%
30%
36,000 MT
Swaziland
231,000
270,000
21%
24%
20,000 MT
Mozambique
515,000
590,000
3%
3%
48,000 MT
12,783,000
14,400,000
22%
25%
TOTAL
*Numbers are rounded
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
1,000,000 MT
What is the Current Food Security Situation
at the National Level??
PHASING UP OF NEED: REGIONAL TOTALS
16,000,000
Phasing Up of Need
Regional Totals
People in Need
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
Sept-Nov Dec-March
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What is the Current Food Security Situation
at the Household Level??
CEREAL ENTITLEMENT and ACCESS
• Cereal entitlement is current plus expected access
to cereals (directly and indirectly).
• Most households have low purchasing power
resulting from chronic poverty, and/or are faced
with very high cereal prices.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What is the Current Food Security Situation
at the Household Level??
CEREAL AVAILABILITY
• Numbers of people in need of
assistance do NOT include
households that are food
insecure due to supply side
factors.
• The assessment revealed that
a high proportion of households
who could afford to buy cereal
are unable to because it is not
readily available in the
marketplace.
Availability of cereals in local
market: percent of communities
stating that cereal grains were
NOT readily available
Lesotho
77%
Malawi
62%
Mozambique
No data
Swaziland
No data
Zambia
50%
Zimbabwe
99%
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What is the Current Food Security Situation
at the Household Level??
COPING STRATEGIES
• Coping strategies include income increasing strategies, expenditure
reducing strategies, food consumption reducing strategies, and
migration strategies.
• Vulnerable households in all countries are already engaged in
distress coping strategies. The most common include:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Changing consumption patterns
Removing children from school
Reduce expenditures
Sale of capital assets
Prostitution
Rural – Urban migration
• These coping strategies could send households into a downward
spiral that could undermine their livelihoods for years to come.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What is the Current Food Security Situation
at the Household Level??
HIV/AIDS AND HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY
HIV/AIDS Prevalence in Adults
Malawi
15%
Zambia
21.5%
Mozambique
13%
Zimbabwe
33.7%
Swaziland
33.4%
Lesotho
31%
• HIV/AIDS was highlighted as a
major problem at the community
level.
• There appears to be an “overlap”
of HIV/AIDS affected households
and those experience acute food
shortages.
• HIV/AIDS adds to household
vulnerability
Source: UNAIDS/WHO June 2000
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What is the Current Food Security Situation
at the Household Level??
GENDER AND HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY
• In general, female-headed households are more
adversely affected and vulnerable than male-headed
households, because they have:
• Less income generating opportunities
• Less mobility
• More demands on their time due to care-giver roles
• Prostitution as a distress coping strategy puts women
and young girls at high risk of HIV/AIDS
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
Is the Food Situation Getting Better or Worse??
The VAC assessment estimates the number of
people in need of food aid to be 12.5% greater
than the initial CFSAM estimates back in May
(14.4 million as compared to 12.8 million).
Amongst the reason for the increase …
• The assessment was undertaken later in the year, closer
to the time of actual needs.
• A larger sample size and more in-depth assessment
techniques were used.
• So far in most countries, the deteriorating effects of
distress coping strategies have been exacerbated by
insufficient grain import levels and continued high prices.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
Is Nutritional Status a Cause for Concern??
• The VAC assessments linked
nutritional surveys to the
household food security
analysis in four of the six
countries.
• Findings were in line with
larger studies indicating
stunting rates of 35-45%
• Wasting rates are below
those expected in times of
severe food shortages (10-15%)
Malnutrition in children under-five
Wasting
Stunting
(<-2SD)
(<-2SD)
Lesotho
7.5%
1
6.0%
Malawi
2
OLD
DATA
49.0%
Mozambique
5.5%
Swaziland
2.2%
40.0%
Zambia
4.4%
39.9%
Zimbabwe
7.3%
41.3%
43.8%
SOURCES: 2002 Aug VAC; 1. 2000DHS; 2. QUIBB2001
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
34.7%
What is the Food Situation
Likely to be in the Future??
• Future commercial import levels are difficult to predict. Based
on past performance, actual imports could be less than plans.
• Market prices of cereals are already high and are expected to
increase up until the next harvest in April/May.
• Without adequate agricultural inputs, the coming cropping
season could generate poor harvests.
• A weak to moderate El Niño event is expected this season. If it
is weak, there could be little effect on rainfall The stronger it is,
the greater the likelihood for dry conditions.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What is the Food Situation
Likely to be in the Future??
CLIMATE OUTLOOK
Rainfall Forecast, October 2002 through March 2003
January to March 2003
October to December 2002
Probability that Rainfall will be …
35
45
20
25
40
35
25
35
40
% Above Normal
% Normal
% Below Normal
35
40
25
35
40
25
Enhanced Probability of Rainfall … 20
40
Normal to Above Normal
40
35
40
25
25
40
35
Normal to Below Normal
Below Normal to Normal
th
SOURCE: 6 Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum, September 2002
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What does the Mean for Decision-Making?
The VAC emergency food security
assessments confirm the severity of the
regional food crisis and provide
compelling evidence that urgent action-beyond that of current levels--is required
from national governments, regional
bodies and the international community to
avert a humanitarian disaster in the next
seven months before the main harvest in
April/May 2003.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What does the Mean for Decision-Making?
NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS
Generally, governments need to create policy environments that:
• Enable large volumes of required food to be easily imported
and disbursed through private sector, government, and
humanitarian programmes.
• Enable unfettered transportation of cereals across international
boundaries and within countries.
• Avoid government action in the market place that could reduce
private sector participation, such as high subsidies, price
controls, etc.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What does the Mean for Decision-Making?
INTERNATIONAL HUMANITARIAN COMMUNITY
• The international humanitarian community has already
donated hundreds of millions of dollars of food and other
assistance.
• This benefits of that assistance are clearly evident.
• The recent assessment confirms the need for 1,000,000 MT
of cereal food aid from September through March.
• The current WFP appeal is only 36% funded. Appeals for
assistance need to be revised upwards, and fully resourced.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What does the Mean for Decision-Making?
TARGETING
• The VAC assessments provide updated information to
guide geographic targeting at the district level, temporal
targeting for the two time periods, and socio-economic
targeting based on the characteristics and a better
understanding of the most vulnerable groups.
• The targeting criteria allows for prioritization of resources.
• Conditions on the ground are complex and dynamic,
requiring constant targeting revision—highlighting the need
for effective monitoring systems.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What does the Mean for Decision-Making?
AGRICULTURAL INPUTS
• There is an urgent need to make agricultural inputs
accessible at the community level for the upcoming planting
season.
• Maize seed is reportedly available at the national level, with
the possible exception of Malawi. However, most households are unsure where and how they will obtain their seeds.
• Where seed availability is not a serious problem,
programmes should focus on making inputs accessible to
farmers, such as voucher schemes and trade fairs.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What does the Mean for Decision-Making?
NUTRITION
• Comprehensive emergency food baskets are
required. These should include pulses, oil,
and other essential commodities.
• Supplementary feeding is warranted for the
most vulnerable groups. School feeding
programmes would help slow the high
withdrawal rates reported in all countries.
• Vitamin A capsules should be considered.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What does the Mean for Decision-Making?
MONITORING
• Food security conditions at the community, national, and
regional levels need close monitoring, including macro and
community level data.
• Macro level indicators include market prices, rainfall,and
food imports.
• Community level indicators include nutrition surveillance,
household purchasing power, dietary diversity, coping
strategies, and availability of commodities.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
What does the Mean for Decision-Making?
THE NEED TO ACT NOW
Urgent action is required to ensure that emergency food
reaches those most in need and that emergency food
stocks are in place within countries for the particularly
severe months of December through March. Based on
an understanding of current national and household food
stocks, market prices, dietary intake, coping strategies,
and other food security indicators, the assessment clearly
indicates that if international assistance remains at its
current levels, a humanitarian disaster may be
unavoidable in the months ahead. Implications of a
disaster of this nature would be loss of livelihoods
(having long term-negative effects), severe malnutrition,
and potentially, death of those most at risk.
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC
Where can I get the details??
The following reports are available (in PDF format)
 six country reports
 consolidated highlights from the country reports
 a regional synthesis
at …
www.sadcfanr.org
or by writing …
[email protected]
SADC FANR
Vulnerability Assessment Committee
VAC

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