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SW-Monsoon 2017 and Kharif Crop Prospects
Presented by:
Aurobinda Prasad
Vice President
022-66528894/7506938641
Monsoon Meter
Preliminary
Forecast
18 Apr 2017
Forecast On-Set
Date
30 May ± 4 day
Actual Onset
Date
Rainfall Forecast
(% of LPA)
Actual Rainfall
(% LPA)
???
96
???
12 Apr 2016
7th June
8th June
106
97
22 Apr 2015
30th May
5th June
93
86
24 Apr 2014
5th June
6th June
95
88
26 Apr 2013
3rd June
1st June
98
106
26 Apr 2012
1st June
5th June
99
92
98
101
19 Apr 2011
Source: Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)
Monsoon: GDP & Inflation Relation
IMD’s initial
forecast date
Actual
Rainfall (%
LPA)
Growth in
Agricultural
GDP (%)
Food
Inflation(%)
Food Inflation
Index
18 Apr 2017
???
3.50 (E)
???
???
12 Apr 2016
97
4.15
4.11
134.9
22 Apr 2015
86
1.20
2.64
131.5
24 Apr 2014
88
-0.20
5.67
124.5
26 Apr 2013
106
4.20
12.32
110.9
26 Apr 2012
92
1.50
-
-
19 Apr 2011
101
5
-
-
Source : IMD , Office of Economic Advisor (GOI) and Ministry of Statistics &
Programme Implementation, Note: Food Inflation: Yearly Average
Agriculture share in GDP
Kharif Production Scenario
Production of Major Kharif Crops (in Million Tonnes)
Kharif Crops
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
% Change
Total Kharif food-grains 128.06
125.09
138.04
10%
Rice
91.39
91.41
96.09
5%
Total Coarse Cereals-
30.94
28.15
32.84
17%
Total Pulses
5.73
5.53
9.12
65%
Total Oilseeds
19.18
16.68
22.81
37%
Cotton
348.05
300.05
325.76
8%
Sugarcane
362.33
348.48
306.02
-12%
Source: Directorate of Economics & Statistics; Department of Agriculture;
Cooperation & Farmers Welfare
Note: Production in million bales of 170 kgs. each.
Rising Minimum Support Price (MSP)
Minimum Support Price (MSP)
Kharif Crops
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2 yr % Change
PADDY
1360
1410
1470
8.1%
MAIZE
1310
1325
1365
4.2%
ARHAR(Tur)
4350
4425
4625
6.3%
MOONG
4600
4650
4800
4.3%
URAD
COTTON (Medium
Staple)
COTTON (Long
Staple)
GROUNDNUT IN
SHELL
4350
4425
4575
5.2%
3750
3800
3860
2.9%
4050
4100
4160
2.7%
4000
4030
4120
3.0%
SOYABEAN (Yellow)
2560
2600
2675
4.5%
Source: Commission for Agricultural Costs & Prices (CACP)
Kharif Scenario 2016-2017
Policy Initiatives
 Schemes like Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana (PKVY) helps in developing organic

clusters & make available chemical free inputs to farmers
 100 per cent FDI under automatic route for development of seeds
 100 per cent Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is allowed under automatic route in
storage & ware housing including cold storages
 Other steps include Pradhanmantri Gram Sinchai Yojana (PGSY) that ensures improved
access to irrigation; creation of an unified national agricultural market which would
help boost the incomes of farmers
 Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) In 2016, Central Government launched
PM Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana for providing financial support to farmers & cover their
crop losses. The scheme covers rabi, kharif crops as well as annual horticultural &
commercial crops
Suggestions
•
Walk the Talk (MSP)
•
Support the farmers in excessive supply scenario (Current pulses scenario)
•
Stock limit should be abolished at least in surplus commodities
•
Open exports for Agri commodities (Pulses)
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