2015 International Tourism Results and Prospects for 2016

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2015 International Tourism Results and Prospects for 2016
18/01/2016
2015 International
Tourism Results and
Prospects for 2016
1184 million international tourist arrivals
(overnight visitors), 50 million more than in 2015
International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution
World
(million)
140
2011
130
2012
120
2013
110
2014
100
2015*
90
80
70
60
50
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1
18/01/2016
6th consecutive year of above-average growth
International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution
World
(% change)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-4.0%
+6.6%
+4.6%
2009
2010
2011
+4.7% +4.6% +4.2%
2012
2013
+4.4%
2014
2015*
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
Inbound tourism in the world
International tourist arrivals (million)
1400
1,184 mn
1200
1000
764
800
600
527
602
561 586
625
696 692
674 675
809
855
911 928 891
950
994
1041
1088
1134
50 million arrivals more
than in 2015
256 million arrivals
more than in pre-crisis
year 2008
400
200
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
2
18/01/2016
2014 and 2015 by region
International Tourist Arrivals
(% change)
8.4
9
7
5
5.8
5
4.2 4
6.7
5
5
3
2.4
3
0.3
1
-1
-3
14*/13
15*/14
-3
-5
-7
World
Europe
Asia and the Americas
Pacific
Africa
Middle East
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
Increase 2015 by region
International Tourist Arrivals
35
50 million
additional arrivals
29
30
25
2014
2015
20
15
(absolute change, million)
13
14
13
14
9
10
3
5
0
2
0
-2
-5
Europe
Asia and the
Pacific
Americas
Africa
Middle East
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
3
18/01/2016
Lower price of oil and other commodities
Price Crude Oil Brent
(US$ per barrel)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
20
17
20
14
20
11
20
08
20
05
20
02
19
99
19
96
19
93
19
90
19
87
0
Source: US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration
Unusual strong exchange rate fluctuations
‐50
US dollar
Hong Kong dollar
UAE dirham
Chinese yuan
Philippine peso
Vietnamese dong
Taiwan dollar
Indian rupee
Swiss franc
Thai baht
Korean won
Pound sterling
Singapore dollar
Israeli new shekel
Peruvian new sol
Indonesian rupiah
Japanese yen
Canadian dollar
Moroccan dirham
South African rand
Mexican peso
Malaysian ringgit
Polish zloty
Euro
Australian dollar
Swedish krona
Turkish lira
Norwegian krone
Brazilian real
Russian rouble
Exchange rate, average 2015 compared to average 2014
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
10
variation of currency to US$
variation of currency to euro
currencies that
weakened to US$
but strengthened
to euro
-37
-22
-30
-25
-19
-20
-11
-12
-13
-14
-14
-15
-16
-16
-16
-16
-17
-16
-7
-7
-8
-8
-5
-5
-5
-5
0
0
-2
-3
-3
0
0
0
-7
-4
-3
20
0
2
3
3
4
6
7
11
11
10
10
14
14
14
13
17
17
16
30
20
20
20
currencies that
weakened to both
US$ and euro
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
4
18/01/2016
Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices
Complex forces weigh on global growth
Growth of gross domestic product
Source: UN/DESA, World Economic Situation and Prospects; data for 2015 are estimated; data for 2016 and 2017 are forecast
5
18/01/2016
Outlook
www.unwto.org/facts
Confidence slightly weaker than past 2 years
Worse 50
71
72
Equal 100
75
131
140
139
127
122
121
125
129
138
136
133
135
131
125
98
Better 150
119
175
150
144
144
140
140
136
137
143
132
UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: World
Prospects (before)
Evaluation (after)
25
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
6
18/01/2016
Outlook: World
International Tourist Arrivals, World
12
10.4
10
7.8
8 6.4
6
4.5
change (%)
4
(% change)
5.9 5.7
2.7
3.9
2
3.0
Forecast 2016: 3.5% to 4.5%
6.6
6.6
4.6 4.7 4.6 4.2 4.4
1.9
0.2
0
-2
-0.6
-4
-4.0
96
/9
97 5
/96
98
/9
99 7
/98
00
/9
01 9
/0
02 0
/01
03
/0
04 2
/03
05
/0
06 4
/0
07 5
/06
08
/0
09 7
/08
10
/0
11 9
/10
12
*/
13 11
*/1
14 2
*/
Fo
re 1 5 1 3
ca */1
st 4
20
16
-6
Long-term average
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
International tourism: projection full year 2016
Actual data
Projection 2016
2015
Average 2005‐2014
World
4.4%
+3.8%
+3.5% and +4.5%
Europe
5.0%
+2.8%
+3.5% and +4.5%
Americas
4.9%
+3.5%
+4% and +5%
Asia and the Pacific
4.8%
+6.2%
+4% and +5%
Middle East
3.1%
5.2%
+2% and +5%
Africa
‐3.3%
5.0%
+2% and +5%
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
7
18/01/2016
Actual Trend vs. Tourism Towards 2030 projection
World
International Tourist Arrivals (million)
1,800
1.8 bn
Trend 1995-2010
Tourism Towards 2030 projection
Actual 1995-2014*
1,600
1.4 bn
1,400
1184 mn
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
527 mn
200
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Thank you very much
for your attention!
John G.C. Kester
Acting Director,
Tourism Market Trends Programme
World Tourism Organization
(UNWTO)
www.unwto.org
8

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