Electricity Q1 2015 - Ontario Energy Report

Transcription

ONTARIO
ENERGY REPORT
Q1 2015
JAN – MAR 2015
ELECTRICITY
Transmission Grid-Connected Generation Output (Q1)
Ontario Peak Demand (Q1)
Nuclear
25 TWh
58.7%
Hydro
9.7 TWh
22.7%
21,814 MW
Gas
5.3 TWh
12.4%
Wind
2.5 TWh
5.9%
Biofuel
0.1 TWh
<1%
Hourly Ontario Energy Price (Weighted Average)
3.54 ¢/kWh
0.02 TWh
<1%
Global Adjustment (Average, Class B)
5.09 ¢/kWh
Total
8.63 ¢/kWh
Solar
Source: IESO
January 7, 2015 6:00 PM EST
Source: IESO
Commodity Cost (Q1)
Source: IESO
Conservation Savings (Q1)
Net Peak Demand Savings
Net Energy Savings
599 MW
159 GWh
Source: IESO
Ontario’s Transmission Grid
Legend
Nuclear generation
Hydroelectric generation
Gas-fired generation
Wind-powered generation
Biofuel generation
This map displays generation facilities with installed capacity
of over 20 megawatts (MW) connected to the high-voltage
transmission grid. Please note that this map is used for
illustrative purposes only. All locations are approximate.
Last updated: May 8, 2015
500 kV Transmission lines
1
Ontario Energy Report Q1 2015 – Electricity
January – March 2015
For the first quarter of 2015, Ontario experienced overall demand that was typical for the province in winter,
and strong generator output. Demand for Ontario electricity increased as a result of cold weather in the United States and
a lower Canadian dollar, providing many opportunities for generators to derive revenues from selling energy to neighbouring
jurisdictions. Nuclear and wind generation achieved record monthly outputs, and new solar facilities also came online early
in 2015, increasing the contribution by solar to the high-voltage grid.
Overall demand in Ontario continued to remain flat, in part due to the successful implementation of conservation initiatives
and the restructuring of the economy, and the system continued to benefit from solid capacity and energy margins. The period of robust supply provides an opportunity to review existing procurements and identify opportunities for enhancements,
while ensuring that any commitments for new supply reflect the system need, and maintain one of the cleanest fleets in
North America.
Electricity Supply
Monthly Energy Grid Output by Fuel Type (MWh)
Ontario’s bulk electricity grid has a diverse supply mix, featuring baseload generators that provide energy 24 hours a day and variable generators as well as flexible generators that change output quickly. The chart below sets out single month-end values of output to the grid, by fuel type,
from October 2013 to March 2015. The chart illustrates how generator availability, demand for electricity and price can lead to month-to-month
variances. Nuclear generator output was at record high levels in January and exceeded January levels in March. Grid-connected wind hit new
records for output, as newly installed facilities continued to come online. Solar generation also took on new significance in supplying power, as
the first solar facilities connected to the transmission grid.
15,000,000
12,000,000
MWh
9,000,000
6,000,000
3,000,000
0
OCT
2013
NOV
2013
Nuclear
DEC
2013
JAN
2014
Hydro
FEB
2014
MAR
2014
APR
2014
Coal
MAY
2014
Gas
JUN
2014
JUL
2014
Wind
AUG
2014
SEP
2014
OCT
2014
NOV
2014
DEC
2014
JAN
2015
FEB
2015
MAR
2015
Source: IESO
Note: Nominal grid-connected solar and biofuel output not shown.
The data shown above is sourced from an IESO report, available at http://reports.ieso.ca/public/GenOutputbyFuelMonthly/PUB_
GenOutputbyFuelMonthly.xml. The report uses settlement data to provide information for all self-schedulers, intermittent and
dispatchable Ontario generators registered as a Market Participant. The report – which includes all transmission grid-connected generators,
plus generators that are embedded and Market Participant registered – is published monthly following the Physical Settlement calendar.
2
Imports and Exports
Ontario is connected to a large, stable network of transmission systems across North America, which supports system reliability and
economic efficiency. Imports compete against domestic generation to provide energy at the best possible price and to support the
province’s needs during periods of high demand. Ontario also exports energy when prices are higher which helps to bring in revenue
that helps offset other system and infrastructure costs and can help maintain system reliability during times of surplus generation.
Ontario imports and exports power across 26 interties with two provinces and three states. While Ontario is electrically interconnected
with Manitoba, Michigan, Minnesota, New York and Quebec, the interties allow for electricity trade in transactions that can reach across
eastern North America, contributing to a more diversified and competitive pool of supply.
Imports Q1
Exports Q1
Quebec
74.9%
New York
38.6%
Michigan
9.3%
Michigan
38.5%
New York
7.9%
Quebec
19.3%
Manitoba
7.6%
Manitoba
2.8%
Minnesota
<1%
Minnesota
<1%
Q1 GWh
Manitoba
Michigan
Minnesota
New York
Quebec
Total
Imports
114.06
138.92
5.45
117.68
1,120.99
1,497.10
Exports
187.03
2,561.16
49.06
2,567.65
1,280.36
6,645.26
Source: IESO
Note: Numbers may not add up to source totals due to rounding.
Installed Capacity Connected to Transmission Grid
Changes to installed grid capacity in this quarter highlight the continuing process of renewal in Ontario’s electricity sector. While nuclear,
hydroelectric and natural gas production accounted for the vast majority of bulk supply, new wind, biofuel and solar generators continued
to connect to the transmission grid.
New Facilities Registered in Q1
The following projects have completed commissioning and the market entry process and are included in current installed grid-connected
generation capacity data:
• Adelaide (Landon) Wind Power – 40 MW
• Bruce Power (nuclear plant upgrade) – 31 MW
• Dufferin Wind Power – 91.3 MW
• Goshen Wind Energy Center – 102 MW
• Grand Renewable Energy Park (wind) – 148.8 MW
Source: IESO 18-Month Outlook – June 22, 2015
3
Current Installed Generation Capacity (Grid-Connected) (MW)
Nuclear
37%
Gas
29%
Hydro
24%
Wind
8%
Biofuel
1%
Solar
<1%
As of May 8, 2015
Note: Data includes all transmission-connected generation facilities and distribution-connected facilities that are Market Participants.
The table below shows the increased use of renewable resources for generating electricity in the province.
Current Installed Generation Capacity (Grid-Connected) as of May 8, 2015
Year
Nuclear
Hydro
Coal
Gas1
Wind
Biofuel
Solar2
Total
2015 MW
12,978
8,462
0
9,920
2,925
455
40
34,780
37%
24%
0%
29%
8%
1%
<1%
2014 MW
12,947
8,462
0
9,920
2,543
455
40
34,367
2013 MW
12,947
7,939
2,291
9,920
1,725
124
0
34,946
2012 MW
12,998
7,947
3,293
9,987
1,511
122
0
35,858
2011 MW
11,446
7,947
4,484
9,549
1,412
122
0
34,960
2015 %
Distribution-Connected Generation (IESO-contracted)
Embedded generators supply electricity to local distribution systems, helping to offset demand on the high-voltage grid by supporting
some of the needs of local communities. While wind and solar make up the majority of contracted embedded generation, the IESO has
contracted for increasing amounts of hydroelectric, combined heat and power, natural gas and bio-energy systems that will also connect
to local distribution networks. By the end of Q1 2015, there was more than 2,600 MW of contracted generation in commercial operation
within local distribution systems.
1. Units that use natural gas, oil or are dual fuel, such as Lennox, NP Kirkland and NP Cochrane, are included in the Gas category.
2. Solar category represents grid-connected solar facilities. Most solar generation in Ontario is currently connected to distribution systems.
4
Contracted Embedded Generation in Commercial Operation (Q1)
Solar
63%
1634 MW
Wind
16%
425 MW
Hydroelectricity
10%
248 MW
4%
108 MW
Combined Heat & Power
4%
100 MW
Bio-Energy
3%
88 MW
Natural Gas
Source: IESO
Note: Numbers may not add up to source totals due to rounding.
Historical Totals – Contracted Embedded Generation in Commercial Operation (YE MW)
2500
Bio-Energy
Combined Heat & Power
Natural Gas
2000
Hydroelectricity
Wind
Solar
MW
1500
Source: IESO
1000
500
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
The data shown above are sourced from the IESO Progress Report on Contracted Supply. The report provides a quarterly update on the
status of supply and procurement initiatives that are under development or in commercial operation, by fuel type, and aggregates total
capacities as stated in each contract, which differs from values on installed capacity used for operation purposes. The report is available
at http://www.ieso.ca/Documents/Supply/Progress-Report-Contracted-Supply-Q12015.pdf.
5
Available Capacity versus Ontario Demand
Peak demand on the grid in this quarter was typical for winter months, despite very cold weather in February. Factors such as conservation, demand response programs and time-of-use rates all contributed to reducing demand on the grid, and embedded solar generation
continued to moderate demand on sunny days.
Available Capacity at Peak
28,374 MW (Q1)
Peak Demand
21,814 MW (Q1)
Operating Reserve Requirement
Minimum Demand
12,675 MW (Q1)
1,573 MW (Q1)
Source: IESO
Available capacity is all installed grid-connected capacity, less allowances made for seasonal derates, planned outages and the
capacity of energy-limited resources. Operating Reserves are required to ensure that the forecast Ontario Demand can be supplied
with a sufficiently high level of reliability. Required Reserve is the amount of supply resources required to handle the loss of the largest
contingency on the grid, plus the loss of half the amount of the second largest contingency. More information on the criteria, tools
and methodology the IESO uses to perform resource adequacy assessments can be found at http://www.ieso.ca/Documents/market
Reports/Methodology_RTAA_2014jun.pdf.
Conservation
As part of the new Conservation First Framework for 2015-2020, the province has targeted a reduction of 7 terawatt-hours (TWh) in electricity consumption by initiatives offered through local distribution companies (LDCs). The IESO will work with transmission-connected
customers toward an additional reduction of 1.7 TWh, to achieve an overall 8.7 TWh in provincial savings by December 31, 2020.
By Q1, Ontario LDCs had signed Energy Conservation Agreements with the IESO. LDCs also developed Conservation and Demand Management (CDM) plans, which the IESO will review and approve by Q3, 2015. Approved CDM plans will be posted at http://www.ieso.ca/
Pages/Conservation/Conservation-First-Framework/Conservation-and-Demand-Management-Plans.aspx.
Conservation Portfolio Results (Q1)
Results as of Q1 2015
LDC Delivered Programs
IESO and other Non-LDC Programs
Net Peak Demand Savings (MW)
414
Net Energy Savings (GWh)
159
Net Peak Demand Savings (MW)
184
Net Energy Savings (GWh)
0
Total Net Peak Demand Savings (MW)
599
Total Net Energy Savings (GWh)
159
Source: IESO
Note: Preliminary unverified results (as of Q1). Totals may not align due to rounding.
6
Energy Savings through LDC-led Conservation Programs (Q1)
Net Energy Savings
Peak Demand Savings
Residential Initiatives
12 GWh
Business and Industrial Initiatives
Other Consumer Initiatives
146 GWh
Residential Initiatives
140 MW
Business and Industrial Initiatives
274 MW
1 GWh
Source: http://www.ieso.ca/Documents/Conservation/Quarterly-Conservation-Report-Q12015.pdf
Note: Preliminary unverified results (as of Q1). Totals may not align due to rounding.
Demand Response
Demand response and peak savings programs benefit the electricity system and lower energy costs for consumers by contributing to
overall peak savings for the province.
The DR3 program supplied approximately 400 MW of available contracted demand response capacity in the first quarter, providing
payments to both aggregated and individual customer loads prepared to reduce their consumption at times of peak demand. On February
19, there was 335 MW of available demand response activated every hour from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m.
DR3 Activation – February 19, 2015
25000
Peak reduction
335 MW
Demand (MW)
22500
20000
17500
15000
12500
HE 1
HE 2
HE 3
Ontario Demand
HE 4
HE 5
HE 6
HE 7
HE 8
DR3 Activation
HE 9
HE 10 HE 11 HE 12 HE 13 HE 14 HE 15 HE 16 HE 17 HE 18 HE 19 HE 20 HE 21 HE 22 HE 23 HE 24
Source: IESO
The Capacity-Based Demand Response (CBDR) program came into effect on March 4. The program brings contracted demand response
providers from the DR3 program into the wholesale energy market to better reflect system needs. By the end of March, all DR3 program
participants had transitioned to the CBDR and the program represented approximately 500 MW of demand response capacity.
The IESO is also focusing on the development of demand-side resources, market-based mechanisms such as a demand response auction
and will continue to put conservation first in planning the power system.
7
Peak Savings
The Industrial Conservation Initiative (ICI) encourages large consumers to shift their energy use away from system-wide peaks. Customers
who are able to reduce their impact on peaks benefit the system by reducing the need to build new infrastructure. Participating customers
are assessed an individual Global Adjustment (GA) rate, based on the percentage that their highest demand during peak hours contributes
to the top five system coincident peaks measured during a defined base period.
The table below lists the top five daily peaks for the most recent base period, which began on May 1, 2014, and ended on April 30, 2015.
Given the relatively mild summer in 2014, three of the top five Ontario demand peaks occurred in the first quarter of 2015.
More information on the ICI is available at http://www.ieso.ca/Documents/settlements/April_2015-ICI_Backgrounder.pdf.
Industrial Conservation Initiative Coincident Peak Values (for base period May 1, 2014 to April 30, 2015)
Date
Hour Ending
Net Ontario Load
(MW)
Embedded Generation
(MW)
Total
(MW)
January 1, 2015
19
21,118.570
491.57
21,610.140
February 19, 2015
20
20,976.264
440.031
21,416.295
August 26, 2014
17
20,967.233
682.792
21,650.025
February 23, 2015
20
20,862.399
539.973
21,402.372
September 5, 2014
17
20,830.888
884.74
21,715.628
Source: IESO
Note: The value in the Total (MW) column is the number used to calculate a customer's Peak Demand Factor.
8
Emissions – CO2 Equivalents
The marked decline in CO2 equivalent emissions is a result of the phase-out of coal-fired electricity generation in the province. Emissions
of oxides of sulphur (SOx) – which are predominantly a by-product of coal combustion – have also shown a marked decrease with the
phase-out of coal-fired electricity.
CO2 Emissions for the Ontario Electricity Sector (as of Q1)
35
33
30
35
27
30
20
Mega Tonnes (MT)
25
16
20
15
14
11
15
7
10
2
5
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
CO2e Emissions
2014
2015 Q1
Source: IESO, Environment Canada
Air Contaminants
Air contaminants, including oxides of sulphur (SOx), oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) are also released
during combustion of fossil fuels.
Air Contaminants for the Ontario Electricity Sector (Q1) (Tonnes)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
SOx Emissions
114,323
87,932
105,420
76,020
30,768
38,448
11,971
10,342
10,192
1,033
364
NOx Emissions
48,143
38,955
43,846
38,314
24,389
28,130
18,988
19,077
17,183
9,726
2,757
1,787
1,529
1,876
1,314
1,779
2,120
562
478
439
246
73
PM2.5 Emissions
Source: IESO, Environment Canada
9
Electricity Demand
Electricity demand is generally shaped by several factors which have differing impacts – those that increase demand (population
growth, economic change), those that reduce demand on the grid (conservation, embedded generation) and those that shift demand (time-of-use rates, the Industrial Conservation Initiative). The impact of each of these factors on electricity consumption
varies by season and time of day. Even as the Ontario economy has moved beyond the 2008 recession, demand has remained
flat. This trend is expected to continue as capacity and energy margins remain adequate and can be attributed in part to the
successful implementation of conservation initiatives.
Ontario Peak Demand – Q1
21,814 MW
Jan 7, 2015 6:00 PM EST
The peak Ontario demand set on January 7 was typical for winter, and almost 1,000 MW lower than the peak in January 2014 that caused
Ontario to become winter-peaking for the first time in a decade. While January and March temperatures this year were fairly typical
for the province, record low temperatures, especially in the province’s southern areas, were seen in February. Assuming a more typical
summer ahead, Ontario should return to a summer peak in 2015.
The effects of conservation and solar generation are growing, gradually becoming more noticeable in hourly and daily system operations,
and the IESO continues to monitor their effects on overall system operability and summer peak demand.
Ontario Monthly Peaks and Minimums (MW)
For the first time in a decade, Ontario was winter peaking in 2014. A milder-than-normal summer and a long winter contributed to the
peak for demand being established in January, not in the summer, when hot temperatures would usually drive heavy air-conditioning load.
Embedded solar generation, as well as conservation, time-of-use rates and the ICI all put additional downward pressure on peak demand.
25000
22500
MW
20000
17500
2014 Peak Demand
22,774 MW
15000
2015 Q1 Peak
21,814 MW
2014 Summer Peak
21,363 MW
2014 Minimum
10,719 MW
12500
10000
JAN
FEB
Maximums
MAR
APR
Minimums
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
Source: IESO
10
Forecast Demand Peaks
The demand for electricity on the provincial grid is forecast on a rolling 18-month basis. An assessment is done to assure the adequacy
of the existing and proposed generation and transmission facilities to meet demand needs. The chart below presents normal weather forecasts, representing a typical peak for the time of year, and extreme weather forecasts that reflect severe weather conditions. The impacts of
time-of-use rates and the Industrial Conservation Initiative – which incents customers to reduce demand in peak demand hours – are also
factored into the demand forecast in this report.
Season
Normal Weather Peak (MW)
Extreme Weather Peak (MW)
Summer 2015
22,888
24,721
Winter 2015-16
22,380
23,172
Summer 2016
22,849
24,706
Total Annual Ontario Energy Demand (TWh)
Year
Total (TWh)*
Change Over Previous Year
2015 (Q1)
37.5
-2.34
2014 (Q1)
38.4
2014
139.8
-0.64%
2013
140.7
-0.42%
2012
141.3
-0.14%
2011
141.5
-0.35%
* Total does not include the impact of embedded generation to reduce demand.
Source: IESO Power Data, Demand Overview
11
Electricity Prices
Commodity Cost (¢/kWh)
Commodity cost comprises two components, the wholesale price (the Hourly Ontario Energy Price) and the Global Adjustment.
The commodity cost is only a portion of the total energy bill.
Month
¢/kWh
JAN
2014
FEB
2014
MAR
2014
APR
2014
MAY
2014
JUN
2014
JUL
2014
AUG
2014
SEP
2014
OCT
2014
NOV
2014
DEC
2014
JAN
2015
FEB
2015
MAR
2015
YTD
Avg.
HOEP1
(Weighted Avg)
6.14
8.18
8.04
3.33
1.79
2.98
2.37
2.21
1.55
0.71
1.65
2.24
2.96
5.12
2.56
3.54
Global Adjustment2
(Class B Customers)
1.26
1.33
-0.03
5.20
7.20
6.03
6.26
6.76
7.96
10.01
8.23
7.44
5.07
3.96
6.29
5.09
7.8
9.51
8.01
8.53
8.99
9.01
8.63
8.97
9.51
10.72
9.88
9.68
8.02
9.08
8.85
8.63
Total Cost of
Commodity
Source: IESO
Monthly Wholesale Electricity Prices (¢/kWh)
The wholesale electricity price fluctuates by the hour. This chart shows the highest, lowest and average wholesale prices for each month.
The monthly price varies depending on factors in the electricity market that shift the energy price higher or lower. A higher average
monthly price exerts a downward pressure on costs that needs to be recovered through Global Adjustment.
150
¢/kWh
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
JAN
2014
FEB
2014
Maximum Hourly Price
MAR
2014
APR
2014
MAY
2014
Minimum Hourly Price
JUN
2014
JUL
2014
AUG
2014
SEP
2014
OCT
2014
NOV
2014
DEC
2014
JAN
2015
FEB
2015
MAR
2015
Arithmetic Price
Source: IESO
1. HOEP (Hourly Ontario Electricity Price) is the wholesale price of electricity, determined by bids and offers that are settled in the electricity market operated by the IESO.
2. Global Adjustment is calculated based on the difference between the HOEP and regulated rates to nuclear and baseload hydroelectric generating stations, contracts with IESO for gas-fired facilities,
renewable facilities, and nuclear refurbishments, and contracted rates paid to existing generators. It also includes the cost of delivering conservation programs and payments made to participants under
contracts with the IESO for demand response programs.
12
Time-of-Use Pricing under the Regulated Price Plan (RPP)
In accordance with the mandate provided under the Ontario Energy Board Act, the OEB has developed the regulated price plan (RPP),
a plan which provides eligible residential and small business consumers with stable and predictable electricity pricing, encourages conservation and ensures the price consumers pay for electricity better reflects the price paid to generators. The plan has been in place since 2005.
The RPP is established by forecasting the cost of supply for RPP customers for an upcoming year and determining the prices that will
recover those forecast costs from eligible customers. Consumers with eligible time-of-use (or “smart”) meters that can determine when
electricity is consumed during the day will pay the RPP under a time-of-use price structure. The prices for this plan are based on three
time-of-use periods per weekday. These periods are referred to as off-peak, mid-peak and on-peak and are shown below. The hours for
mid-peak and on-peak periods are different in the summer and winter months to match energy consumption patterns in those seasons.
Summer and Winter Time-of-Use Hours
$
Off-peak
$$
Mid-peak
$$$
On-peak
Source: Ontario Energy Board
RPP prices reflect a forecast of prices on the Ontario wholesale electricity market, as well as other components of supply costs, such as
those resulting from contracts. These costs are generally allocated to time-of-use consumption periods based on the type of supply that
is active at those times. For example, costs for always-on baseload sources of generation (such as nuclear) are allocated across all periods
whereas costs for demand-response conservation programs are only allocated to on-peak periods. The lowest (off-peak) price is below the
average RPP supply cost, while the other two are above it. The time-of-use prices in effect during this reporting period for consumers with
eligible time-of-use meters are shown in the table below.
RPP Time-of-use Prices during Q1 (effective November 1, 2014 to April 30, 2015)1
Time-of-use RPP Prices – ¢/kWh
Off-Peak
Mid-Peak
On-Peak
Average Price
Price
7.7¢
11.4¢
14.0¢
9.5¢
Per cent of time-of-use consumption
64%
18%
18%
Source: Ontario Energy Board
1. New RPP prices came into effect on May 1, 2015. Information on RPP prices can be found in the data catalogue at www.OntarioEnergyReport.ca.
13
Electricity – What’s New
A collection of electricity reports and publications.
Information
Published By
Date
Ontario Energy Board Annual Report
OEB
April 1, 2015
IESO 2014 Annual Report
IESO
April 1, 2015
Environmental Monitoring Program (EMP) Report
OPG
April 20, 2015
Ontario’s System-Wide Electricity Supply Mix: 2014 Data
OEB
April 29, 2015
Ontario Smart Grid Assessment and Roadmap
Navigant Consulting
June 5, 2015
Hydro One 2014 Annual Report
Hydro One
June 15, 2015
Actual versus Forecasted Data used in Long-Term Energy Plan
IESO
June 22, 2015
Energy Reporting & Benchmarking for Large Buildings:
Policy Development Consultations: Summary Report
Integral
June 22, 2015
18-Month Outlook
IESO
June 22, 2015
Quarterly Conservation Report and Summary
IESO
June 22, 2015
Progress Report on Contracted Electricity Supply
IESO
June 22, 2015
Quarterly Nuclear Performance Reports
OPG
June 22, 2015
Year-End Performance Report
OPG
June 22, 2015
14

Electricity Q1 2015 - Ontario Energy Report

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