Power Choices

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Power Choices
POWER CHOICES
EURELECTRIC Study on low-CO2 Europe by 2050
Owen WILSON
Environment and Sustainable Development Committee, EURELECTRIC
Geneva, 13th April 2010
Background
• EURELECTRIC “Role of Electricity” Study (2007)
– Changed Energy landscape
• Climate Challenge; Security of supply; Competitive EU economy
– Partners: University of Leuven (Demand); VGB (Supply);
Technical University of Athens (Modelling); McKinsey (coordination)
– Focus: How to provide low-carbon, secure energy at least
cost
– Outcome: 50% reduction in EU27 GHG emissions by 2050
• European Council decisions on Climate-Energy
package and 2050 objective
• Economic and financial crises
• Electricity industry CEOs Declaration
EURELECTRIC CEO Declaration
18 March 2009
Carbon-neutral power in
Europe by 2050
1. Cost-efficient, reliable supply
through an integrated market
2. Energy efficiency & electricity
use as solutions to mitigate
climate change
High Level Strategy to deliver CEO Declaration
• Build on “Role of Electricity” Study
– “Role of Electricity” took technological and
policy developments as start point and projected
impacts on CO2 emissions to 2050
– New study, “Power Choices”, takes 2050 GHG
objective (-75% on 1990) as start point and maps
most economic pathway for delivery
– Consequential impacts on SO2, NOx emissions
also assessed
“Power Choices” Study
SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS
• 75% GHG cut across whole EU economy,
consistent with 450 ppm global in 2050
• CO2 price applied uniformly to all sectors
BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS
• No new policy developments post 2009
• ETS 1.74% p.a. reduction continues
• Power becomes major transport fuel
• No CO2 price in non-ETS sectors
• All power generation options available
(with CCS commercially available as of 2025)
• Bottom up measures to support energy
efficiency, new renewables
• Major policy push in energy efficiency
• No binding RES target post-2020; RES
support mechanisms withdrawn by 2030
• CO2 price is the only driver for low-carbon
generation post 2030
• Rational behaviour by economic agents
MODELLING
• PROMETHEUS to evaluate global
energy supply/demand and prices
• PRIMES to evaluate EU27 energy
supply/demand (as per DGTREN Dec
2009) and emissions
“Power Choices” Output Summary
• Energy efficiency in buildings, houses, electricity use
(appliances, lighting, heat pumps, motor drives … )
– Domestic sector savings
• -16% in 2030 relative to Baseline; -39% in 2050 relative to Baseline
– Electrification of road transport
• 10% in 2030; 80% in 2050
• Renewables in heat and power generation
– 37% in 2030; 40% in 2050
• CCS in power generation
– 63 GW in 2030; 191 GW in 2050 (85% of CO2 captured)
• Nuclear energy
– 132 GW in 2030 (85 GW new); 175 GW in 2050
Energy Efficiency is Key
Stationary uses
- 10% on Baseline by 2030
- 30% on Baseline by 2050
Transport uses
- 7% on Baseline by 2030
- 29% on Baseline by 2050
Composition of electricity demand
Electricity demand on Power Choices vs. Baseline
TWh
2020
2030
2050
Stationary Transport Combined
-168
47
-121
-436
330
-106
-1156
1521
364
Power Choices
3473
3799
4776
Overall energy demand -30% vs. Baseline in 2050
Final energy consumption by sector, EU-27
Mtoe
1400
1200
1000
Transport
800
600
Residential
Tertiary
Other Industries
400
Heavy Industry
200
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Paradigm shift to efficient electric technologies
More electricity = less energy
Need for all low-carbon generation options
In 2050
RES:
• 40% of total mix (1910 TWh)
• Wind: 56% of RES
Nuclear:
• 28% of total mix (1330 TWh)
CCS:
• 28% of total mix (1320 TWh)
Other fossils:
• 4% of total mix (210 TWh)
Net power generation in EU-27
Carbon emissions from power fall by >90%
Deep emission cuts
take place between
2025-2040.
But investments are
needed NOW!
NOW: 1423 MtCO2
2050: 128 MtCO2
Decomposition of emissions reduction in
Power Sector
Decomposition (ex-post) of emissions reduction
Investment needed across the period
Gross investment in generation capacity
MW
2010 – 2050
13%
17%
4%
52%
14%
Significant investments…
… but a reasonable cost for society
Investment needed in power
generation by 2050: €2 trillion
Power Generation Investment (billion €)
2500,0
2000,0
1500,0
2025-2050
2000-2025
1000,0
500,0
0,0
Power Choices
What if…
Nuclear phaseout is reversed
in Germany and
Belgium?
Commercial
deployment of
CCS is delayed
to 2035?
One-third of onshore
wind power is not
built due to planning
problems?
All technologies are really needed
CO2 emissions from power, EU-27
Mt
CCS delay
1600
Power Choices
Nuclear+
• More nuclear = more rapid
reduction curve
1400
• 10-year delay of CCS =
delayed CO2 emission
reductions from power & whole
economy!
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
• 1/3 onshore wind not built =
more CCS & nuclear, off-shore
wind not likely to fill gap.
Power Sector SO2 and NOx emissions
Emissions index (2000=1)
1.20
SO2 emissions
NOx emissions
1.00
CO2 emissions
• 3.3 Mt in 2000
• 0.2 Mt in 2050
SO2 emissions
0.80
NOx emissions
• 1.6 Mt in 2000
• 0.5 Mt in 2050
0.60
0.40
Major impact on urban
air quality
0.20
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
0.00
Key outcomes
EU carbon-neutral power by 2050 is realistic
-75% GHG on whole economy can be reached
•
Energy efficiency is critical
–
•
•
•
•
•
Electrification of the demand side essential
All power generation options needed
Significant investment but at acceptable cost to society
The major CO2 reductions in power are achieved from 2025
onwards
CCS delayed &/or nuclear phase-out = slower CO2 reduction
Significant co-benefits with air pollutants
Policy recommendations
CO2 reductions
• Support CO2 market to deliver cap at
least cost
• All sectors to internalise cost of GHGs
• Promote an international agreement
on climate
Cost
• Significant investment cost but
reduction in share of GDP
• Recognise that cost of technology
deployment differs substantially across
the EU
Technology choices
• Enable the use of all low-carbon
options for power generation
• Encourage public support for modern
energy infrastructure: onshore wind,
CCS, smart grids…
Demand-side
• Major policy push in energy efficiency
• Facilitate electrification of road
transport and spatial heating & cooling
EURELECTRIC’s partner organisations
in Power Choices study:
National Technical University
of Athens
Verband der
Großkraftwerks-Betreiber

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