Exim Bank Indian Economy Presentation - Exim Bank. Export

Exim Bank Indian Economy Presentation - Exim Bank. Export

Presentation on India’s
International Trade and Investment
July 2016
Structure of Presentation
Indian Economy: A Snapshot
1
4
2
Merchandise Trade: A Perspective
3
Services Trade: Recent Trends
India’s Investment Flows
2
Indian Economy – Snapshot
PARAMETER
FY 2012
FY 2014
FY 2015
FY 2016
1823.2
1863.2
2042.4
2072.3
GDP Growth (constant prices, %)
6.7
6.6**
7.2**
7.6#**
Exports – Merchandise (US$ bn)
306.0
314.4
310.3
262.0
Imports – Merchandise (US$ bn)
489.3
450.2
448.0
380.4
Exports – Services (US$ bn)
140.9
151.8
158.1
154.3
62.2
69.4
73.1
74.2
76.9
78.7
81.6
84.6
Current Account Balance (US$ bn)
-78.2
-32.4
-26.8
-22.1
CAB as percentage of GDP (%)
-4.2
-1.7
-1.3
-1.1
External Debt (US$ bn)
360.8
446.2
475.0
485.6
Forex Reserves (US$ bn) (as on end-March)
294.4
304.2
341.6
360.2
FDI Inflows (US$ bn)
46.6
36.0
45.1
55.4
FDI Outflows* (US$ bn)
30.9
36.9
30.9
22.0
GDP (current prices, US$ bn)
Software Exports (US$ bn)
Imports – Services (US$ bn)
Note: e: estimates; * - FDI Outflows include Equity, Loan and Guarantee Issued; ** - Data as per the revised base year 2011-12;
# - provisional estimates; FYxx means financial year ended March 31, 20xx.
Source: IIF, MOCI, CSO, RBI
3
India: An Emerging Economic Powerhouse
Strong Economic Fundamentals
 World’s 7th largest economy based on nominal GDP in 2015 (1)
o Nominal GDP for 2015: ~US$ 2.1 trn(1)
 World’s 3rd largest economy based on GDP measured in PPP terms in 2015 (2)
o GDP in PPP terms for 2015: ~US$ 8 trn(1)
 GDP for 2016 projected at 7.4%(1)
 Favorable demographic profile: 66% of the population is in the age group of 15 to
64 years (2)
 Consumption demand which is driven by basic consumption remained strong
 Sovereign rating: Baa3/Positive (Moody’s), BBB-/Stable (S&P), BBB-/Stable (Fitch)
Source: (1) IMF World Economic Outlook April 2016 and July 2016 Update.
(2) World Bank Database.
4
India’s International Trade
Increased Global Integration through Trade
(USD bn)
Exports
Imports
Trade Balance
 Decline in global commodity prices and
weak demand resulted in subdued global
trade.
489
491
450
448
 Exports from India declined from US$ 306
380
306
300
314
310
262
bn in FY2012, to US$ 262 bn in FY2016.
 Imports also registered a fall from US$ 489
bn in FY2012 to US$ 380 bn in FY2016.
 Trade deficit declined significantly from
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
US$ 183 bn FY2012 to US$ 118 bn in
FY2016.
-136
-183
-138
-190
-118
 India’s share in global merchandise trade
stood at 2.0% (2015)(2).
Source: (1) Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
(2) World Trade Organization
5
India’s Trade: Shifting Southwards
Region-wise Export Destinations FY2006 and FY2016
49%
47%
Asia
19%
Europe
24%
16%
18%
North America
Latin America
4%
0.2%
Asia
FY2016
Latin America
CIS & Baltics
CIS & Baltics
58%
17%
22%
3%
8%
7%
7%
North America
FY2006
1%
1%
34%
Europe
Africa
10%
7%
Africa
Region-wise Import Sources FY2006 and FY2016
5%
2%
2%
2%
FY2016
FY2006
 Direction of trade moving towards developing countries, particularly Asia, Africa and LAC.
 Share of Asia, Africa and LAC regions in India’s exports increased from 57% in FY2006 to 63% in
FY2016.
 Share of Asia, Africa and LAC regions in India’s imports increased sharply from 39% in FY2006
to 71% in FY2016; of this, share of Asia region rose from 34% to 58% during this period.
 Future trade flows to be geared towards the developing nations (buttressed by GOI policies).
Note: - Mexico is excluded in North America’s regional classification and included in Latin America
- Figures indicate percentage share to total export/import and may not add up to 100 as the data for
unspecified countries are excluded.
Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Government of India
6
India’s Major Trading Partners
USA
UAE
Hong Kong
China
UK
Singapore
Germany
Saudi Arabia
Bangladesh
Sri Lanka
11.6%
4.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.0%
2.7%
2.4%
2.2%
2.0%
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry
12.2 Nigeria
-7.7
Malaysia
-5.4 12.8
Belgium
-3.2 13.3
14.0 3.6 UK
Japan
-5.2 14.5
15.0 0.4 Singapore
Indonesia
15.9
-10.2
Republic of Korea
6.1 Hong Kong
18.2
15.4%
16.6
Germany
19.2
-5.0
Top Export Destinations (FY 2016)
Trade Balance in FY2016
-9.5
Switzerland
Saudi Arabia
-18.3 20.3
49.7
62.1
70.7
-52.7
(US$ bn)
-13.9 26.7
UAE
Total Trade in FY2016
10.9
18.5 USA
China
India’s largest trading partners in FY2016
Top Import Sources (FY 2016)
China
USA
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Switzerland
Indonesia
Republic of Korea
Germany
Iraq
Nigeria
16.2%
5.7%
5.3%
5.1%
5.1%
3.4%
3.4%
3.2%
2.9%
2.6%
7
India’s Trade Basket
Top Export Items (FY 2016)
Top Import Items (FY 2016)
Gems & jewellery
15.1%
Textiles & allied
products
13.8%
Chemicals &
related products
12.3%
Petroleum crude & products
Gems & jewellery
11.7%
Chemicals & related products
Petroleum
products
11.6%
Machinery
8.1%
14.8%
Electronic items
Agriculture and
allied products*
Transport
equipments
21.8%
Base metals
10.5%
9.7%
8.7%
6.5%
Machinery
7.3%
Agriculture and allied
products*
5.7%
Base metals
7.1%
Ores & minerals
5.4%
Plastic & rubber
articles
2.4%
Transport equipments
4.0%
Electronic items
2.2%
Plastic & rubber articles
3.6%
* Includes plantation and marine products
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry
8
India’s Trade Basket
* Includes plantation and marine products
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry
Petroleum crude & products
-52.5
Electronic items
-34.3
Ores & minerals
-18.4
Gems & jewellery
-17.0
Top 5 Commodities
with Trade Deficit
Machinery
-14.2
Top 5 Commodities
with Trade Surplus
Articles of stone
1.4
Leather & its mfg.
4.5
Transport eqpts
6.3
Agri & allied prdts*
9.0
(Trade Balance in US$ bn)
Textiles & allied prdts
30.9
Top 5 commodities in India’s trade basket with surplus/deficit in FY2016
9
India’s Share in Global Merchandise Exports
Rankings
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
Country
Grand Total
Germany
USA
China
Japan
France
Netherlands
UK
Italy
Canada
Belgium
Hong Kong
South Korea
Russia
Singapore
Mexico
Chinese Taipei
Spain
Saudi Arabia
Malaysia
Sweden
Switzerland
Austria
Brazil
UAE
Thailand
Ireland
Australia
Norway
India
Source: WTO
2005
100.0
9.2
8.6
7.3
5.7
4.4
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.2
2.8
2.7
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
Country
Grand Total
China
USA
Germany
Japan
Netherlands
France
South Korea
Italy
UK
Belgium
Hong Kong
Russia
Canada
Singapore
Mexico
Chinese Taipei
Spain
Saudi Arabia
India
UAE
Australia
Brazil
Malaysia
Switzerland
Thailand
Poland
Sweden
Indonesia
Austria
2010
100.0
10.3
8.4
8.2
5.0
3.8
3.4
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.3
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Country
Grand Total
China
USA
Germany
Japan
Netherlands
South Korea
Hong Kong
France
UK
Italy
Canada
Belgium
Mexico
Singapore
Russia
Switzerland
Chinese Taipei
Spain
India
UAE
Thailand
Saudi Arabia
Malaysia
Poland
Brazil
Australia
Viet Nam
Czech Republic
Austria
2015
100.0
13.8
9.1
8.1
3.8
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.1
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
10
India’s Trade in Services
Strong Services Account
(USD bn)
146
141
158
152
154
74.2
73.1
69.4
77
81
64
65
FY12
FY13
Exports
79
82
73
77
FY14
FY15
Imports
85
70
62.2
FY16
FY12
Trade Balance
Source: RBI, Balance of Payment Statistics
65.9
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
Software Exports (US$ bn)
11
India’s Share in Global Services Exports
Ranking
Country
2005
Grand Total
USA
2010
Country
Grand Total
2015
1
Grand Total
USA
2
UK
8.1
UK
6.9
UK
7.2
3
Germany
6.4
Germany
6.4
China
5.9
4
France
4.8
France
5.0
Germany
5.2
5
Japan
4.3
China
4.2
France
5.0
6
Spain
3.7
Japan
3.6
Netherlands
3.7
7
Netherlands
3.6
Spain
3.2
Japan
3.4
8
Italy
3.5
Netherlands
3.0
India
3.2
9
China
2.9
India
3.0
Singapore
2.9
10
Hong Kong
2.5
Hong Kong
2.7
Ireland
2.7
11
Ireland
2.3
Ireland
2.5
Spain
2.4
12
Belgium
2.2
Italy
2.5
Belgium
2.3
13
Canada
2.2
Singapore
2.4
Switzerland
2.3
14
Singapore
2.2
Belgium
2.4
Hong Kong
2.2
15
India
2.0
South Korea
2.2
Italy
2.1
16
Switzerland
1.9
Switzerland
2.1
South Korea
2.0
17
South Korea
1.9
Canada
1.9
Luxembourg
2.0
18
Denmark
1.7
Luxembourg
1.6
Canada
1.6
19
Sweden
1.7
Denmark
1.6
Sweden
1.5
20
Austria
1.7
Sweden
1.6
Denmark
1.3
Source: WTO
100.0
14.7
Country
100.0
14.3
100.0
USA
14.7
12
India’s Foreign Direct Investment Flows
Foreign Direct Investment Inflows & Outflows
FDI Inflows
FDI Outflow
55.4
US$ 55 bn in 2015-16, as compared
46.6
45.1
34.3
(US$ bn)
 FDI inflow into India increased to
36.0
to US$ 45 bn in 2014-15
36.9
 FDI outflow from India stood at
30.9
30.9
26.9
22.0
US$ 22 bn in 2015-16, against US$
31 bn in 2014-15
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
Note: FDI Outflows include Equity, Loan and Guarantee Issued
Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI)
13
India’s Foreign Direct Investment Flows
India’s FDI Inflows – FY2016 stood at US$ 40.0 bn#
Top FDI Investing Countries
France
2%
UAE
2%
Sector-wise FDI Inflows
Cyprus
1%
Others
11%
UK
2%
Services
sector*
17%
Germany
2%
Singapore
34%
Others
38%
Computer
software &
hardware
15%
Japan
7%
Netherlands
7%
USA
11%
Mauritius
21%
Trading
10%
Pharmaceuti
cals
Power
2%
2%
Telecommu
nications
3%
Chemicals
Hotel & (other than
tourism fertilizers)
3%
4%
Automobile
industry
6%
#- data is for FDI equity inflow; * - Services sector includes Financial, Banking, Insurance, Non-Financial / Business,
Outsourcing, R&D, Courier, Tech. Testing and Analysis
Source: DIPP
14
India’s Foreign Direct Investment Flows
India’s FDI Outflows – FY2016 (US$ 22.0 bn)
Country-wise FDI Outflows
Luxembourg
1%
Sector-wise FDI Outflows
Construction
Others
13%
Malaysia
2%
Transport,
storage and
communicat
ion services
7%
Singapore
17%
Cayman
Island
4%
U.K
5%
Others
5%
6%
Agriculture
and mining
8%
Manufacturing
39%
Mauritius
17%
Netherlands
7%
Switzerland
8%
USA
13%
UAE
13%
Wholesale,
retail trade,
restaurants
and hotels
13%
Financial,
insurance
and business
services
22%
Note: FDI Outflows include Equity, Loan and Guarantee Issued (Approved ODI)
Source: Reserve Bank of India
15
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