accuaproject - CREAF

ACCUA PROJECT
WATER USE ADAPTATIONS TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN
J.A. LOPEZ-BUSTINS1, E. PLA1, L. CANDELA2, J. FONS3, R. MILEGO3, J. RETANA1, R. SAVÉ4, J. TERRADAS1
1CREAF
(Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications) – Autonomous University of Barcelona – 08193 Bellaterra
(Grup d’Hidrologia Subterrània – Universitat Politència de Catalunya) – 08034 Barcelona
(European Topic Centre – Land Use and Spatial Information) – Autonomous University of Barcelona – 08193 Bellaterra
4DHA-IRTA (Departament d’Horticultura Ambiental – Institut de Recerca i tecnologia Agroalimentàries) – Torre Marimon – 08140 Caldes de Montbui
2GHS-UPC
3ETC-LUSI
Getting to know ACCUA
There is clear evidence that human activity is influencing climate leading to strong impacts and changes in natural and human systems. New policies must be carried out beyond mitigation efforts (reduction of greenhouse gases).
The interdisciplinary ACCUA project attempts to identify the main vulnerabilities that affect these systems and propose some adaptation measures at local scale (Catalonia, NE Iberian Peninsula).
The main objectives are (1) to establish land vulnerabilities according to water availability and (2) to propose adaptations addressed to overcome these vulnerabilities. And finally, to suggest recommendations on how to optimize future water uses.
Study area
The study areas are three medium-sized catchments which represent different environmental conditions: Fluvià, Tordera and Siurana. They have been chosen
to represent different human activities related to water use found in the Mediterranean. Fluvià catchment is characterised by a natural environment which is
increasingly been threatened by important climate and human changes. Tordera catchment is under fast industrialisation and urbanisation, and Siurana is strongly
dependent on agriculture. All these factors will contribute to draw new scenarios of demands and availabilities regarding water resources. Furthermore, the three
catchments are obviously under Mediterranean climate but with some noteworthy differences in temperature and precipitation regimes due to their North-South
latitudinal gradient location.
el Fluvià
977 mm
400-500
500-600
600-700
700-800
13 ºC
dry Catalonia
wet Catalonia
800-900
Fluvià: 66% forests, 23% crops, 6%
other natural vegetation and 1% urban
soil
Tordera: 63% forests, 13% other
natural vegetation, 12% crops and 7%
urban soil
900-1.000
Siurana: 39% other natural vegetation,
38% forests, 23% crops and 0.3%
urban soil
1.000-1.100
1.100-1.200
1.200-1.300 mm
14 ºC
la Tordera
819 mm
13 ºC
el Siurana
589 mm
Spatial distribution of the annual precipitation mean (1951-1999) for the three catchments according to the Digital
Climatic Atlas of Catalonia (Unitat de Botànica and Departament de Geografia in the Autonomous University of
Barcelona). The annual precipitation and temperature mean for the whole catchment is also shown.
A methodological approach
The project presents new approaches not yet undertaken by other studies carried out on climate change in Catalonia. Firstly, we will
perform a multidisciplinary integration. We will match and cross human and physical databases. Secondly, the local scale of the study
will bring new information and methods which have not been applied in Catalonia yet.
Climate Change
…for instance, how vine will
adapt to new precipitation
regimes in Priorat?
We will carry out precipitation and temperature
projections by means of the regional HadRM3 model
and the global ECHAM-5 model. We will mainly
consider the A2 scenario.
It would be of major interest to assess some possible
future trends such as the precipitation decrease which
occurred in March during the second half of the last
century.
Strong changes in precipitation regime are more
important than those in the annual mean to lead to
important alterations in vine and oil production in the
Siurana catchment.
Global Change
…for instance, how will we
manage to supply water to an
increasing population in the
Tordera catchment?
Projections of municipal water supplied by the
Tordera catchment according to the estimated
equivalent population for 2015 and 2025
The future population is estimated according to the
partial territorial plans by Idescat (Catalan Government).
Notice that some of the towns supplied by the Tordera
catchment are not within its borders.
We considered no changes in water consumption habits
and no implementation of new water supply networks.
Nowadays, those towns supplied by the Tordera river
being outside of its catchment receive water from
SOREA and Consorci de la Costa Brava Sud
enterprises.
It is expected a high increase of water demand in littoral
towns and slight changes in inland areas.
Some expected results
Our approach will be based on the application of different tools such as scenarios, indices and models. A first
approach on our predictions will be based on the last update of those scenarios developed in the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
We will employ some referenced indices and new ones to assess the impact of climate change on the
ecosystems and their ability to adapt to new conditions. It is essential to run climate (general and regional) and
water balance models.
Some of the expected results are:
-Mapping vulnerabilities of natural and agricultural zones
-Predicting water availability to different scenarios (water balance models)
-Mapping risk in the three catchments according to changes in water resources
-Programming management planning to carry out sustainable adaptations to climate change.
ACCUA project is founded by Obra Social Caixa Catalunya. For further information please do not hesitate to contact us at [email protected] or visit our website www.creaf.cat/accua