Andrew Etzinger.pptx - Fossil Fuel Foundation

The role of energy savings in solving
the current electricity supply
constraints
25 March 2015
THE MATHEMATICS
…of demand shortages
Load shedding schedules
Stage
Stage 0
70-100 MW
Stage 1
800-1300 MW
Stage 2
1600-2100 MW
Stage 3
3200-4400 MW
Stage 4
Type
Reduction obtained by
interrupting supply load shedding
Reduction obtained by
instructing reduction curtailment (pre-agreed)
Unscheduled
(pre-agreed)
Ad hoc
Load offered by customers under
the immediate curtailment option
(min 25% for 2 hrs)
Scheduled /
Notified
Shed 5% of national noncurtailment load at peak
Curtail 10% of normal demand
within 2h of notification
Scheduled /
Notified
Shed 10% of national noncurtailment load at peak
Scheduled /
Notified
Shed 20% of national noncurtailment load at peak
Curtail 20% of normal demand
within 2hrs of notification
Unscheduled
(instructed)
Shed >20% of national noncurtailment load at peak
As instructed by the National
System Operator at the time.
Research has been undertaken into the market
potential for energy savings per technology
Technology
Efficient Lighting
Resid
Comm
Indus
Total
939
115
116
1,170
Solar Water Heating
3,713
3,713
Domestic Cooking
Conversion
2,144
2,144
Infra red heating
766
766
Heat Pumps
960
224
Showerheads &
Restrictors
240
160
569
1,753
400
Load Management
9
200
209
Heating, Ventilation &
(HVAC)
14
70
84
Agricultural Initiatives
144
Efficient Compressed Air
144
1,255
1,255
Motor Efficiency
408
408
Variable Speed Drivers
417
417
Fan / Pumps
530
530
3,565
12,933
TOTAL
8,762
666
• The market’s total potential is the
estimated maximum amount of
demand savings that can be
achieved in each technology
class.
• The market potential was
estimated in a recent research
study conducted by EEDSM.
• In setting targets, the market
penetration in any of the
technology classes did not exceed
50% of the research finding’s
maximum market potential.
• The above conservative target
settings approach allows for
market estimation accuracy,
customer own projects and supply
chain constraints.
EEDSM “WORKS”
EEDSM is making a tangible contribution
EEDSM track record : verified average
weekday energy savings impact for June 2006
Average Weekday Total and DSM Impact (MW): June 2006
800.0
700
700.0
600.0
500
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
Tim e
Total Impact
DSM Impact
22:30
21:00
19:30
18:00
16:30
15:00
13:30
12:00
10:30
09:00
07:30
06:00
04:30
03:00
01:30
00:00
MW
500.0
EEDSM efforts have displaced the equivalent capacity
of a full power station
IDM cumulative performance over time
10780
(Measured and Verified savings provided for annual report 2013/14)
9417
12000
7590
10000
6240
8000
3941
3531
3072
2371
1999
1082
432
285
162
126
90
2000
1004
2656
4000
2725
4343
4906
6000
0
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
EE has permanency / longevity - once implemented, the energy efficient solution is in
place for the duration of the technology life.
Power Alert and supporting communication
initiatives demonstrate justifiable, measureable
and strategically timed energy savings
Power Alert, for which energy savings and as a result behaviour change impact can be
measured, demonstrates that significant reach is required to translate into meaningful
behaviour change.
Ongoing refinement to sustain participation
Critical inputs2
Targeted messaging 1
Fresh creative 2
Aware
Knowledge
Relevance
Relevance
Motivational
Intentions
Energy
savings
Behavior
Frequency (high) 3
3.51
273 MW & 1,644
million people
MWh (June 2014)
Note 1. The measured MW impact suggests for every 100 people reached, ~8 responds by changing behaviour saving energy. This compares very well
with international benchmarks for effecting positive behaviour change.
It has however consistently delivered demand and energy savings, strategically
timed at very competitive costs compared to the available alternatives
Power Alert and its supporting campaigns deliver proven savings, cost effectively at times
that are critical to the power system – but, requires CONTINUED focus and spend
October 2014
8
Through the Power Alert, South Africans have
contributed to keeping the lights on
Since its introduction in 2006, the Power Alert has consistently kept the South
African public informed about the electricity supply situation and have effectively
reduced the peak demand during weekday evenings by between 150 to 350
MWs (delivering as much as 450MWs peak demand reduction on occasion)
Impact – MW reduction
Average impact of Power Alert signals: April 20 – Dec 2014
221
143
64
9
350
Demand Response
Requires update
Payment of a fixed rate for load reduction at fixed predetermined times.
Demand Market Participation (DMP) programme; Demand Response
Aggregated Pilot (DRAPP) programme
DMP
Size: Customers with 20-80MW
demand reduction potential
Market focus: Industrial
DRAPP
Size: Customers with <10MW
demand reduction potential
Market focus: Small industrial and
commercial
Multiple fixed rate per MWh
R800/MWh – R1000/MWh.
900MW reduction
Contracted for current DMP
Up to 2500MW reduction
potential = DRAPP
The IDM programme produces benefits at all levels of
the economy and society…
Developmental contributions
Access to lighting
62 million The number of CFLs
replaced since inception
Access to hot water
382,542 The number of SWH
installed since inception
The number of heat
19,354 pumps installed since
inception
Education and training
1,778 The number of teachers reached via
workshops since 2004
85 The number of learners receiving ESCO
Development Programme Certificates
The number of building energy auditors
33 certified through the Building Energy Auditors
Training programme (BEAT)
The IDM programme initiated a cultural and behavioural change
amongst South Africans
IDM solutions sector coverage
TECHNOLOGY
KEY:
PRIORITY 1
PRIORITY 2
Priority 3
Industrial
ESCO
Performance
Contracting
Standard Offer / SOP
FLEX
Standard Product /
Aggregated SPP
Residential Mass Rollout
SWH / HP Rebate
Other Mass Rollout
Commercial /
Agricultural
Energy
Solutions
Demand
Solutions
Residential
Process Optimisation, Lighting
Heat Pumps, HVAC etc.
Industrial Process Optimisation, Fans
Compressed Air, Shower Heads, Lighting
Lighting, Hot Water Systems,
Solar , Process Optimisation, Renewables
Lighting, Shower Heads,
Industrial Heat Pumps
“Mixed bag” of
technologies
HP & LP Solar Water
Heaters, Heat Pumps
CFL Sustainability and
Fill-ins
12
RECENT INDUSTRY CHANGES
Since 2008, EEDSM became a national
imperative
As national priority, multiple roleplayers are now
promoting and participating in EEDSM initiatives
12 I Tax incentive +
SANEDI and the dti
12 L Tax incentive +
SANEDI and the DoE
Private Sector Energy
Efficiency (PSEE) Initiative
+ National Business
Initiaitive
Green Energy Efficiency
Fund + IDC and kfW
AfD Green Loan and
Technical Assistance
Facility
Solar Water Heating
(SWH) rebate +
Department of Energy
Industrial Energy
Efficiency Programme +
National Cleaner
Production centre (NCPC)
DR and EEDSM +
Department of Energy IPP
Procurement Office
Distributed and/or own generation increasingly
part of the energy solution
Technology advancements and price trends are empowering the “Prosumer”
“Other” alternatives (incl. gas and cogen)
Solar PV developments
The unofficial IRP 2013 update suggested that 22.5 GW
solar PV from rooftop installations may be possible
by 2030.
EXAMPLE
“MTN reduces powerprice exposure with
innovative selfgeneration schemes”3
Capacity installed (kWp) – Feb 2015
PV capacity that has been voluntarily reported and registered
National 25.8MW
(excluding REIPPPP)
Price trends
Cellular major MTN South Africa has approved
two gas-powered generation developments for its
Doornfontein (1 MW) and Newlands (6 MW) sites,
in Gauteng, based on the success of its 2 MW
trigeneration plant at its Roodepoort
headquarters.
MTN will expand this methane-powered plant by
another 5 MW within the next two years, which
will meet all its baseload heating, cooling and
electricity requirements of its head offices.
- 99.9%
International and local
Global
(capacity cost):
$1/watt
1784
1.30
0.70
year
1953
2012
2015
Large scale Solar PV trends reported by the REIPPPP has
shown a 68% drop in price from bid window (BW) 1 to bid
window 3 (i.e. three consecutive years):
- 68%
R2/kWh
3.10
1.85
0.99
BW 1
BW 2
BW 3
Note 1. Source: spheralsolar.com; Note 2. Fully indexed price
in 2013 Rands;
15
Note 3. http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/mtn-reducespower-price-exposure-with-innovative-self-generation-schemes2014-09-26-1
Demand side levers: Funding and MW savings
shortfall
Funding Shortfall
Required Funding (Rm)
- Demand Response
- Base IDM
- RMR (not in NERSA submission)
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
5,684
4,972
2,614
2,763
4,456
1,168
688
752
797
844
2,941
2,709
1,862
1,966
3,612
1,575
1,575
0
0
0
The reduction of
funding allocation to
IDM requires delivery
of 85% of the submitted
demand savings
target (MW), with only
40% of the applied for
funding being
approved.
•
Over and above IDM
core funding, R3.15bn
will be required over
the next 2 years to
fund the RMR
Programme to deliver
savings in support of
Keeping the lights on.
Total
20,489
4,249
13,090
3,150
NERSA Approved (Rm)
- Demand Response
- Base IDM
2,623
1,168
1,455
1,641
688
953
819
0
819
712
0
712
1,244
0
1,244
7,039
1,856
5,183
Shortfall (Rm)
- Demand Response
- Base IDM
- RMR
3,061
0
1,486
1,575
3,331
0
1,756
1,575
1,795
752
1,043
0
2,051
797
1,254
0
3,212
844
2,368
0
13,450
2,393
7,907
3,150
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
1,270
2,168
2,629
2,861
3,322
512
752
992
992
992
458
816
1,037
1,269
1,730
300
600
600
600
600
Total
3,322
992
1,730
600
MW Shortfall
Required MW Savings
- Demand Response
- Base IDM
- RMR
•
NERSA Approved (MW)
- Demand Response
- Base IDM
- RMR
891
512
379
0
1,425
752
673
0
860
0
860
0
1,056
0
1,056
0
1,471
0
1,471
0
1,471
0
1,471
0
Shortfall (MW)
- Demand Response
- Base IDM
- RMR
379
0
79
300
743
0
143
600
1,769
992
177
16
600
1,805
992
213
600
1,851
992
259
600
1,851
992
259
600
EEDSM FUTURE
Emerging and Future Focus
Expanding into social media
Our communication has necessarily expanded to include flash mobs, school programmes, social media
- higher frequency, more platforms - more tv channels (linked to changing viewing patterns and pay for
TV) and tools / apps.
Eskom Brand
July 2013
Facebook Fans/Twitter Followers
March 2015
Facebook Fans/Twitter Followers
70 356
46 696
896
Facebook
likes
4566
Twitter
followers
Facebook
likes
Twitter
followers
Experiments show consistent responsiveness
to price
60%
Enabling Tech
Price Only
Peak Reduction
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Peak to Off-Peak Price Ratio
Source: Brattle Group
Objective of Critical Peak Day Pricing
• Critical peak day pricing is a dynamic tariff that will contribute to Eskom's
efforts to keep the lights on
•
•
•
by providing customers with pricing signals that enables customers to
respond to system constrained periods,
empowers customers to become active participants in demand response, and
encourages electricity savings.
• The objectives of introducing Critical Peak Pricing1 generally are:
1. To provide a pricing signal that enables customers to respond to system
constrained periods and empowers customers to become active participants
in demand response,
2. To manage a capacity shortfall,
3. To manage a shortfall in energy supply,
4. To encourage the efficient use of electricity,
5. To improve the financial viability of the utility,
6. To lower total (demand and supply) energy costs, creating economy
efficiency
7. To improve customer service by allowing for informed customer decision
making
21
1World
Bank Dynamic Pricing Primer
Features of the Critical Peak Day tariff
• The CPD tariff assumes that the existing tariff structures (Miniflex,
Ruraflex and Nightsave Small and Nightsave Rural) will not change,
except on critical peak days, where:
• For a limited number of days per year (capped to 20 system constrained
days per year):
• the customer will be charged higher energy prices during the critical peak
hours of the day (6am to 10pm i.e. standard and peak periods)
• the remaining non-critical days of the year, the corresponding hours will have a
lower/adjusted energy prices
• This tariff design feature:
• provides a significantly stronger pricing signal that better reflects the
higher cost of generation during system constrained days
• encourages customer to reduce, forgo, substitute or load shift electricity usage
during system constrained times, thereby avoiding potential load shedding
• provides a direct price incentives for customers to benefit from the adjusted energy
rates for the remaining non-critical days, which is lower than normal tariff rates.
• Ensures revenue neutrality (set at the level where the customer does not
change the consumption behavior patterns).
22
•
Pilot Findings and Results – definite load
reduction and no signs of comeback load
250000
7 days after
1 day after
CPD
1 day before
7 days before
Percentage load response [kW]
200000
150000
• Average of 27% load reduction in
pilot customer responses.
• 7 days BEFORE and AFTER plus 1
day before and after the event – no
signs of load shifting after the
Critical Peak Day event.
• Agrees with customer survey:
customers indicated they did no
shifting, and reduced their
electricity usage.
100000
50000
0
23
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Closing Thought:
GWh
47,340
GWh. The electrical energy that has been
saved since inception of the IDM
programme
27 Million tons of Coal
20 000
Amount of coal ‘not burnt’
16 000
12 000
8 000
4 000
2017/18
2016/17
2015/16
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
0
• There is a cost associated with every kWh of electricity that can not be
supplied when electricity supply is constrained
24
Thank you