Real Estate Market Study

Studiu Piata Imobiliara
Real Estate Market Study
June / Iunie 2013
Content / Cuprins
1 General overview
Aspecte generale
2 Office market
Piata spatiilor de birouri
3
market
4
market
Investment
Residential
P iata tranzactiilor investitionale
P iata spatiilor rezidentiale
5 Retail market
P iata spatiilor comerciale
6
Piata terenurilor
Land market
Romania
June / Iunie 2013
Real Estate Market Study
Studiu Piata Imobiliara
General overview
Aspecte generale
Limited local banking finance, corroborated with the
Capacitatea de finantare bancara locala redusa,
decreasing foreign capital inflow and blockage of capital
coroborata cu reducerea fluxului de capital strain
in bankrupt developments represent the main problems
si indisponibilizarea capitalului in dezvoltari imobiliare
that affected the real estate market. These problems
falimentare sunt principalele probleme care au afectat
were also identified during previous years, but their
piata imobiliara. Aceste probleme au existat si in anii
effects have become more and more acute.
anteriori, insa efectele acestora au devenit din ce in ce
mai acute.
Although the volatility of the market is lower, there is still
a level of uncertainty that induces a reluctant attitude of
Desi volatilitatea pietei este mult mai scazuta, raman
the market players. Their exigencies, especially those
in continuare o serie de incertitudini care determina o
coming from the demand supporters, have induced a
atitudine ezitanta a jucatorilor pietei. Exigentele acestora,
general qualitative increase of the real estate market and
in special cele provenite din partea sustinatorilor cererii,
a better equilibrium between quality and price.
au determinat o crestere calitativa a pietei imobiliare si
un echilibru mai bun intre calitate si pret.
Considering the entire real estate market, the commercial
sector has recorded a positive evolution, being
Privite in ansamblu, sectorul comercial a inregistrat o
sustained by foreign market players, while the residential
evolutie pozitiva, fiind sustinut de jucatorii straini, in timp
segment, being exclusively dependent on the domestic
ce sectorul residential, exclusiv dependent de cererea
demand, did not witness an obvious improvement.
interna, nu a cunoscut o imbunatatire evidenta. Totusi,
However, the perspectives of the real estate market
perspectivele pietei imobiliare s-au imbunatatit, dovada
have improved, proved by strong prospecting activities
fiind activitatile de prospectie a pietei si consolidarea
and consolidation of the portfolios owned by foreign
portofoliilor de proprietati a unor dezvoltatori si investitori
investors and developers.
straini.
www.nairomania.ro
1
Office market
Piata spatiilor de birouri
Demand for offices will continue to remain active during
Cererea de spatii de birouri va continua sa ramana activa
2013-2014, the perspective of a future improvement
in 2013-2014, perspectivele unei viitoare imbunatatiri
being encouraging. Although the level of take-up will
fiind incurajatoare. Desi nivelul suprafetei inchiriate va
slightly increase, the amount of vacant offices will
creste usor, disponibilitatea suprafetei de birouri va
increase as a result of the relocations of tenants that
creste deoarece prin relocarile chiriasilor se vor genera
are likely to produce additional vacant spaces. This
spatii libere. Aceasta crestere a suprafetei spatiilor
increase in the surface of vacant offices should not
libere nu trebuie considerata o premisa pentru scaderi
be considered a premise for an additional decrease of
semnificative ale chiriilor la nivelul intregii piete, in aceste
rents at the level of the entire market; in this situation the
cazuri trebuie analizata situatia fiecarei proprietati in
individual case of each property and market area should
parte.
be considered and analyzed.
The availability of office spaces
remained high, but the number
of
properties
that
meet
the
expectations of tenants decreased.
Evolution of the average rent - Euro/sq
Evolutia chiriei medii - Euro/mp/luna
Class B
25
Class A
Due to this specific situation
the downward pressure occurs
exclusively
on
the
properties
technical
characteristics;
proprietatilor
care
corespund
asteptarilor chiriasilor s-a diminuat.
Din
aceasta
cauza
presiunea
acestora se exercita numai asupra
proprietatilor care au un grad
redus de atractivitate din cauza
15
in
accesibilitatii
other cases, the rents remained
comparable to those recorded in
ramane ridicata, insa numarul
asupra chiriilor in sensul scaderii
20
with low degree of attractiveness
generated by poor location and
Disponibilitatea spatiilor de birouri
si
specificatiilor
tehnice, in celelalte cazuri, chiriile
10
H1
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2012.
se mentin la un nivel comparativ
cu 2012.
Generally the headline rent for class A offices in
In general, nivelul chiriei de baza pentru birourile clasa
Bucharest fluctuated between Euro 16-18/sq m/month,
A din Bucuresti a fluctuat intre 16-18 Euro/mp/luna, in
while for centrally-located class B offices, the rents
timp ce cladirile clasa B din zona centrala sunt cotate la
varied between Euro 12-14/sq m/month.
aproximativ 12-14 Euro/mp/luna.
However, the office segment remained a tenant market,
Totusi, piata spatiilor de birouri ramane o piata a
where landlords continued to offer incentives to attract
chiriasilor, in care proprietarii au continuat sa ofere
tenants (i.e. rent free periods, free of charge parking
stimulente pentru atragerea acestora (perioade libere
places etc.), the total occupancy costs remaining
de chirie, locuri de parcare gratuite etc), costurile
the main decision factor for choosing the offers. As a
totale de ocupare fiind principalul criteriu de selectie
consequence, the headline rents will remain constant
a ofertelor de inchiriere. Din aceasta cauza, chiriile
in the next 12 months, excepting the areas that will
de baza vor ramane constante in urmatoarele 12 luni,
witness significant completions of office developments
exceptie facand zonele in care se vor finaliza suprafete
(i.e. Vacarescu-Dimitrie Pompeiu-Pipera) that will be
semnificative de birouri (ex. zona Vacarescu-Dimitrie
under a downward pressure.
Pompeiu-Pipera), acestea fiind supuse unor presiuni in
sensul scaderii chiriilor.
www.nairomania.ro
3
Investment market
Piata tranzactiilor
investitionale
Investment transactions have concentrated on the office
Tranzactiile de investitii s-au concentrat ca si in anii
segment similar with previous years, the second best
trecuti pe segmentul spatiilor de birouri, secondat
performing sector being the retail market. Local market
fiind de segmentul spatiilor comerciale. Piata locala
is still affected by the lack of financing and uncertainty of
investitionala continua sa resimta lipsa finantarii si
the investment climate generated by expected evolution
nesiguranta climatului investitional, generat in primul
of economy, rather than the fundamentals of the real
rand de evolutiile economice asteptate si mai putin de
estate market.
fundamentele pietei imobiliare.
The transactions recorded in 2013 mainly aimed
Tranzactiile de investitii inregistrate in 2013 au vizat in
to consolidate the portfolios owned by the foreign
primul rand consolidarea portofoliilor de proprietati pe
investment funds in Romania. The most active investment
care fondurile straine le au in Romania. Cel mai activ
fund, New Europe Property Investments acquired Lake
fond de investitii, New Europe Property Investments a
View office building In Bucharest (Euro 61.7 Million) and
cumparat cladirea de birouri Lake View din Bucuresti
Severin Shopping Center in Drobeta Turnu-Severin,
(61.7 mil.euro) si centrul comercial Severin Shopping
maintaining the strategy of consolidation on office and
Center din Drobeta Turnu-Severin, continuand astfel
retail segments.
strategia de consolidare a prezentei fondului pe
segmentele de birouri si al spatiilor comerciale.
Yields for new modern properties maintained stable,
generally fluctuating between 8.25-8.50% for class
Ratele de capitalizare pentru proprietatile noi, moderne,
A office buildings, between 8.0-8.75% for shopping
s-au mentinut stabile, fluctuand intre 8.25-8.50% pentru
centers and between 10-10.5% for industrial/logistic
spatiile de birouri clasa A, intre 8.0-8.75% pentru
schemes.
cladirile comerciale si intre 10-10.5% pentru spatiile
industriale.
Generally the prospection of the market became more
active, both the potential buyers and sellers being
In general, activitatea de prospectie a pietei s-a
more willing to be involved in negotiation compared to
intensificat, atat potentialii cumparatori, cat si potentialii
previous years. Some of the foreign investment funds are
vanzatori, fiind mult mai active comparativ cu perioada
willing to implement “exit strategies” by disposing totally
anterioara. Unele din fondurile institutionale straine
or partially their assets in Romania and concentrate on
doresc sa realizeze un “exit” total sau partial pentru a-si
more developed markets.
concentra activitatea in pietele mai dezvoltate.
Lack of financing affects both the development and
Lipsa finantarii afecteaza atat activitatea de dezvoltare,
investment activities. The main capital inflows are
dar si segmentul investitional. Principalele fluxuri de
generated by foreign market players that succeeded
capital provin de la jucatorii straini, care reusesc sa
in attracting finance from sources other than banking
atraga finantare din alte surse decat cele bancare.
finance. Thus the lack of finance and the credibility of
Astfel, lipsa finantarii si credibilitatea pietei locale au
the local market have diminished the willingness of the
diminuat disponibilitatea fondurilor de investitii straine de
foreign investors to invest in Romania.
a investi in Romania.
www.nairomania.ro
5
Investment market
Piata tranzactiilor
investitionale
We consider that the level of yields remain stable
Anticipam ca ratele de capitalizare se vor mentine stabile
throughout 2013 and during the first half of 2014 due
pe parcursul anului 2013 si in prima jumatate a anului
to the reluctant attitude of investors, lack of finance and
2014, evolutie determinata de atitudinea inca ezitanta a
attractive investment products. We are expected a limited
investitorilor de a achizitiona proprietati, de lipsa finantarii
number of investment transactions involving singular
si a produselor investitionale atractive. Consideram ca
properties part of large portfolios; these transactions
vom asista in continuare la vanzari razlete de proprietati,
will be concluded by investment funds that are already
parte a unor portofolii, acestea fiind achizitionate de
present on the local market willing to consolidate their
fonduri de investitii deja existente pe piata ca parte
portfolios. These properties require significant finance
a strategiei acestora de consolidare a portofollilor
resources and a long marketing period as the foreign
deja achizitionate. Aceste proprietati necesita eforturi
capital inflow maintain at low levels. As a consequence,
financiare semnificative, avand o vandabilitate redusa
we consider that the “exit strategy” will be difficult to be
atat timp cat fluxurile de capital strain vor fi la fel de
implemented by some investment funds as other foreign
reduse. In consecinta, apreciem ca strategia de exit
investment funds hesitate to enter the local market.
a unor fonduri de investitii vor fi puse in aplicare cu
dificultate, atat timp cat alte fonduri straine de investitii
ezita sa intre pe piata locala.
Evolution of the capitalisation rate
Evolutia ratelor de capitalizare - segment birouri
Class B
10
Class A
8
6
H1
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
www.nairomania.ro
6
Residential market
Piata spatiilor rezidentiale
Development activity during the first part of 2013
Activitatea de dezvoltare din prima parte a anului 2013
concentrated almost exclusively on the apartment
se concentreaza aproape in exclusivitate pe segmentul
segment
residential
apartamentelor situate in cadrul complexelor rezidentiale
compounds. The characteristics of properties are
de mici dimensiuni. Caracteristicile proprietatilor sunt
adapted to the price expectations of the potential
adaptate cerintelor de pret ale cererii, astfel ca preturile
clients; thus the sale prices should not exceed the
de vanzare ale acestora sa nu depaseasca plafonul de
maximum limit (Euro 67.000) imposed by the “First Time
finantare (67.000 Euro) instituit prin programul “Prima
Buyer” program.
Casa”.
Local residential market remained dependent on the
Piata rezidentiala a ramas dependenta de finantarea
banking finance; as a consequence the sale price is
bancara, astfel ca pretul de achizitie e cel mai important
the main decision factor under the condition of a more
factor de decizie in conditiile unei pauperizari a cererii.
located
within
small
scale
impoverished demand.
Noile dezvoltari rezidentiale sunt localizate cu precadere
New residential developments are almost exclusively
in zonele periferice, in apropierea retelelor de transport
located in the peripheral areas, in the vicinity of the
in comun, insa in zone care nu beneficiaza de servicii
main public transportation routes, but these areas do
sociale (educatie, sanatate etc). Cele mai multe proiecte
not benefit of the proximity of social services (education,
care se adreseaza cumparatorilor prin “Prima Casa” au
health etc.). The majority of the residential developments
fost demarate in zona sudica si vestica a Bucurestiului.
addressing the clients benefitting of the provisions of
this program are located in the southern and western
Adaptarea ofertei la cerintele cererii este relevata de
areas of Bucharest.
cresterea ponderii apartamentelor construite dupa 2008
(34%) in totalul proprietatilor finantate prin programul
The adaptation of the offer to the characteristics of
“Prima Casa”. Noile locuinte propuse de dezvoltatori au
demand is proved by the weight of the number of
suprafete utile de 50-55 mp pentru 2 camere, respectiv,
apartments completed after 2008 (34%) in the total
65-70 mp pentru apartamentele de 3 camere. Chiar si in
number of properties financed through this program.
aceste conditii, ponderea apartamentelor vechi ramane
The usable area of new apartments is between 50 and
semnificativa.
55 sq m for 2 room apartments, respectively, between
65-70 sq m for 3 room apartment. Even under these
Aceasta situatie se poate modifica la orizontul anului
conditions, the old apartment segment significantly
2014 daca programul de stimulare a cererii se va
dominates the transactions.
adresa in exclusivitate achizitiei de locuinte noi. Daca pe
segmentul apartamentelor noi se vor mentine preturile
This situation could potentially change during 2014, if
constante, pe piata apartamentelor vechi se vor inregistra
the governmental program will be exclusively focused on
scaderi ale preturilor.
acquisition of new developed properties. The sale prices
on new apartment segment will maintain constant, while
In plus trebuie luata in calcul presiunea asupra preturilor
the sale prices on old apartment segment will record a
determinata de portofoliile de apartamente (in special
decrease tendency.
vechi) pe care bancile sunt nevoite sa le vanda, la preturi
atractive pentru a obtine un ritm al vanzarilor satisfacator.
www.nairomania.ro
8
Residential market
Piata spatiilor rezidentiale
In addition, we should consider the price pressure
Pe parcursul primului semestru din 2013, preturile de
generated by the intention of banks to dispose their
vanzare pentru apartamentele noi adresate cumparatorilor
foreclosure
old
“Prima Casa” au ramas stabile, in general fluctuand
apartments) at very attractive prices in order to generate
intre 775-875 Euro/mp pentru proprietatile din zonele
a satisfactory rhythm of sales.
periferice, in timp ce preturile pentru apartamentele noi
portfolios
(especially
containing
situate in zonele secundare se situeaza intre 900-1.050
During 2013 the sale prices of apartments addressing
Euro/mp.
“First Time Buyer” clients remained stabled, generally
fluctuating between Euro 775-875/sq m for peripheral
Scaderea preturilor medii de achizitie publicate de
properties while the sale prices for apartments situated
Fondul National de Garantare a Creditelor pentru
in the secondary areas of Bucharest range between
Intreprinderile Mici si Mijlocii este generata in special de
Euro 900-1.050/sq m.
ajustarile segmentului apartamentelor vechi, care au o
pendere de peste 60% in totalul achizitiilor.
The decrease in the average sale
prices of the apartments acquired
through this program as resulted
from the information published by
public authorities that manage this
Average sale price - “First Time Buyer” (Euro/sq m)
1200
Pretul mediu de vanzare
1000
Proprietati “Prima Casa”
program is mainly generated by
the adjustments recorded on the
800
old apartment segment that have
600
a weight of 60% in the total value
400
of transacted properties.
(Euro/mp)
200
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
On other segments of the residential market the
Pe celelalte segmente rezidentiale se inregistreaza o
development activity is very limited; the availability of
activitate de dezvoltare redusa, disponibilitate mare a
apartments completed during the boom period of the
apartamentelor in ansamblurile rezidentiale construite in
market is high while the sale rhythm is unsatisfactory
anii de crestere a pietei si ritm al vanzarilor nesatisfacator,
significantly contrasting with the expectations of
care contrasteaza puternic cu asteptarile dezvoltatorilor
developers and financing banks.
si ale bancilor finantatoare.
Unfortunately the perspectives of this market segment
Din pacate, perspectivele acestui segment in sem.2
during H2 2013 and H1 2014 are not at all optimistic
2013 si sem.1. 2014 din punctual de vedere al
in terms of the finance capacity of demand, finance
cererii nu sunt optimiste avand in vedere pauperizarea
availability and economic uncertainty. On the offer side,
acesteia, dificultatile obtinerii finantarii si incertitudinile
small scale developments will continue to dominate this
economice. In ceea ce priveste oferta, dezvoltarile de
segment being quoted prices comparable with those
mici dimensiuni vor continua sa domine acest segment,
currently recorded.
fiind promovate preturi care sunt comparative cu cele
inregistrate in present.
www.nairomania.ro
9
Retail market
Piata spatiilor comerciale
On street retail segment is marked by high availability
Segmentul spatiilor comerciale stradale este marcat
of properties as a result of the incapacity of tenants
de disponibilitate mare a ofertei, pe fondul incapacitatii
to financially sustain the lease contracts. Although the
chiriasilor de a sustine financiar contractele de inchiriere.
interest of tenants remained constant, the continuous
Desi interesul chiriasilor a ramas constant pentru
flux of tenants securing and vacating spaces generate
acest tip de proprietati, fluxul de chiriasi care ocupa,
a high degree of uncertainty on this segment. The
respectiv, elibereaza spatiile comerciale confera acestui
most active tenants remained the proximity shops
segment un grad de incertitudine crescut. Cei mai activi
(supermarkets) that take the advantages of the changes
chiriasi raman magazinele de proximitate cu caracter
in the consumption behavior.
universal (supermarket-urile), care profita de schimbarea
comportamentului de cumparare al consumatorului.
Under these circumstances, the superior limit of the
rents quoted for 2012 has obviously decreased as the
In consecinta, limita superioara a chiriilor spatiile
owners are eager to retain the tenants that encounter
comerciale a cunoscut o diminuare evidenta, din cauza
difficulties on their specific market.
dorintei proprietarilor de a retine chiriasii care intampina
probleme legate de piata acestora specifica.
Average rents for on street retail units in Bucharest – Euro/sq m/month
Chiria medie pentru spatii comerciale stradale din Bucuresti – Euro/mp/luna
Central
Centru
Secondary
Zone secundare
40-60
Peripheral
Zone periferice
18-30
8-12
Large retailers, both big box format and specialized
Marile lanturi comerciale, atat cele tip big box, cat si
stores (fashion, foot ware) are willing to continue their
magazinele specializate (imbracaminte, incaltaminte),
expansion at the national level to take the benefits of
doresc sa isi continue agresiv extinderea la nivel
lower occupancy costs and high availability of retail units
national, pentru a beneficia de scaderea costurilor de
that meet their specific requirements.
ocupare si spatii comerciale potrivite cerintelor specific.
The equilibrium between demand and offer on the
Echilibrul dintre cerere si oferta pe segmentul proprietatilor
shopping center segment is reflected in the stability of
comerciale tip centru comercial s-a reflectat in stabilitatea
the rents that generally fluctuate between Euro 30-45/
chiriilor, astfel ca acestea variaza intre 30-45 Euro/mp/
sq m/month for small units and between Euro 6-12/sq
luna pentru spatiile mici si 6-12 Euro/mp/luna pentru
m/month for anchor tenant.
chiriasii tip ancora.
For 2013-2014 we anticipate the expansion of
Pentru 2013-2014 anticipam continuarea extinderilor
hypermarkets (Kaufland, Cora) and proximity shops,
lanturilor de hypermartket-uri (Kaufland, Cora) si a
supermarket format. The rents of shopping centers
magazinelor de proximitate, tip supermarket. Chiriile
will remain stable, but a potential decrease in rents for
din centrele comerciale se vor mentine stabile, insa
on street units should be considered if the domestic
posibile diminuari ale chiriilor pentru spatiile stradale
demand will not record an obvious improvement.
pot fi asteptate, daca cererea interna nu va cunoaste o
imbunatatire.
www.nairomania.ro
11
Land market
Piata terenurilor
Local land market recorded an evident increase in the
Piata terenurilor a inregistrat o crestere evidenta a
number of transactions generated by the attractive
numarului de tranzactii, determinate de oferta atractiva,
offer, both in terms of asking prices and granted urban
atat din punctul de vedere al indicatorilor urbanistici,
planning indicators. Under the conditions of a less liquid
dar mai ales al pretului solicitat. Pe fondul unei piete
market, the potential purchasers are speculating this
cu lichiditate limitata, cumparatorii speculeaza acest
disequilibrium putting pressure on prices and adopting
dezechilibru si pune presiune puternica asupra pretului
an aggressive attitude on negotiation.
manifestand agresivitate in negocierile de vanzare.
The acquisition of plots at lower prices compared to
Achizitia de terenuri la preturi mult mai mici decat cele
2011 and 2012 was stimulated also by the policy
inregistrate in anii anteriori a fost generata si de politica
of banks that aim to rapidly dispose the foreclosure
bancilor de vanzare rapida a portofoliilor de proprietati
portfolios.
executate.
A better equilibrium between prices, urban indicators and
Obtinerea unui echilibru echitabil intre pret, indicatorii
location has stimulated the transactions during 2013.
urbanistici si localizare a stimulat tranzactiile cu terenuri
Urban indicators by themselves do not automatically
in 2013. Indicatorii urbanistici in sine nu aduc automat
result in an added value and indirectly in a price
o crestere a valorii proprietatii si implicit a pretului; de
increase. As a consequence, demand focused on plots
aceea cererea de terenuri s-a focalizat pe segmentul
proper for office developments, as well as for residential
proprietatilor propice dezvoltarilor imobiliare de birouri,
developments, especially for small scale projects.
precum si pe segmentul rezidential, in special ansambluri
mici de apartamente.
Owners of these properties could benefit of the
development potential on short and medium term.
Potentialul de dezvoltare al acestor proprietati poate
The most attractive areas are located along the axis
fi valorificat pe termen scurt si mediu. Cele mai
between Unirii Square-Universitatii Square-Romana
atractive zone au fost axul care uneste Piata Unirii-
Square-Victoriei Square, as well those located in the
Piata Universitatii-Piata Romana-Piata Victoriei, precum
northern area of Bucharest, that benefit of the proximity
zi zonele din nordul Bucurestiului, care beneficiaza de
of important public transportation routes and flexibility of
proximitatea mijloacelor de transport in comun si de
the urban planning indicators.
flexibilitatea indicatorilor urbanistici.
Among the most important transactions, should be
Printre cele mai importante tranzactii amintim achizitiile
noticed those concluded in the northern Bucharest by
din nordul Bucurestiului realizate de Skanska pentru
Skanska for office development (Green Court project)
realizarea proiectului de birouri Green Court, precum si
and by companies owned by Ioannis Papalekas also in
cele realizate de companiile omului de afaceri Ioannis
view of office development.
Papalekas pentru dezvoltari de cladiri de birouri.
www.nairomania.ro
13
ART BUSINESS CENTER 5
71-73 Caramfil Blvd.,Entrance B
5 floor, Bucharest 1, 014143
nairomania.ro