Real Estate Market Study 2014 Trends in 2015

Studiu de Piata Imobiliara 2014 Tendinte 2015
Real Estate Market Study 2014
Trends in 2015
Content / Cuprins
NAI Romania
Studiu de Piata Imobiliara 2014 Tendinte 2015
Real Estate Market Study 2014
Trends in 2015
1 Economic overview
Mediul economic
2 Office market
Piata spatiilor de birouri
3
Residential
market
4 Retail market
5
P iata spatiilor rezidentiale
P iata spatiilor comerciale
Agricultural land market Piata terenurilor agricole
Romania
2014
Economic overview
During 2014, the economic growth continued the positive evolution recorded in 2013, even if the growth rate
was lower than last year and compared to the forecasted level. The expected growth rate fluctuates between the
estimation of the International Monetary Fund of 2.4% and the anticipation of the Romanian Gouvernment of 2.8%.
Compared to 2013, the economic growth had stronger fundaments being also supported by internal demand (private
consumption). The sources of growth were more diversified. The positive evolution of GDP is generated by the
industrial activity that was sustained by external demand, as well as by slight improvment in the internal demand.
Economic growth was negatively affected by the decrease of private and public investments. Lack of investment
in infrastructure and weak capacity to attract European Funds negatively affect the growth rate of the Romanian
economy.
Contribution of different categories of resources
to the growth of GDP
GDP Evolution
50,0%
40,0%
8,0%
7,9%
7,0%
7,3%
6,0%
30,0%
6,3%
5,0%
4,0%
20,0%
4,2%
3,0%
3,4%
2,6%
2,0%
1,0%
1,1%
0,0%
10,0%
0,6%
-0,8%
0,0%
-1,0%
-2,0%
-10,0%
-3,0%
-4,0%
-20,0%
-5,0%
-6,0%
-7,1%
-30,0%
-7,0%
-8,0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
T1
05
2014e
T3
05
T1
06
T3
06
T1
07
T3
07
T1
08
T3
08
T1
09
T3
09
T1
10
T3
10
T1
11
T3
11
T1
12
T3
12
T1
13
T3
13
T1
14
T1
14
-40,0%
GDP Growth (%)
Source: National Bank of Romania, National Commision for Prognosis
Constructions
Real estate transactions
Source: National Bank of Romania, National Commision for Prognosis
The fundamentals of the real estate market are reflected also by the contribution of the constructions sector to
the growth of GDP. This sector has a negative influence of 0.1%-0.3% during Q1 – Q3 2014. On the other side,
real estate transactions had a contribution of 0.1%-0.3%. The aggregated data at the national level reveal also the
adjustment of the construction activity to the absorption capacity of the real estate market.
The outlook for 2015 remains positive, the forecasted economic growth is 2.5%. The improvement of the economic
environment is an evidence that the real estate market will benefit of favourable conditions for consolidation and
improvment of specific market indicators.
The analysis of the most recent macroeconomic data reveals the diminishing evolution of the annual inflation rate;
thus, in December 2014, the annual inflation rate reached a historical low of 0.83%. This evolution is generated by
the influence of the prices of imported goods. These prices reflect the low level of inflation in Euro-zone, decreasing
trend in the fuel prices, doubled by a descendent trend of aggregated demand.
www.nairomania.ro
Romania
2014
Mediul economic
In 2014, cresterea economica a continuat evolutia pozitiva din 2013, chiar daca rata de crestere a fost sub nivelul
asteptat si cel inregistrat anul trecut. Nivelul estimate al cresterii economice variaza intre estimarea Fondului Monetar
International de 2.4% si cea a Guvernului Romaniei de 2.8%.
Comparativ cu 2013, cresterea economica a avut fundamente mai solide, aceasta fiind sustinuta de cererea interna
(consumul privat), sursele fiind mai diversificate. Dinamica pozitiva a PIB este sustinuta de activitatea de productie
stimulata de cererea externa, dar si de revenirea usoara a cererii interne. Cresterea economica a fost afectata negativ
de scaderea investitiilor private si a celor publice. Lipsa investitiilor in infrastructura si capacitatea limitata de a atrage
fonduri europene afecteaza negativ ritmul de crestere economica a Romaniei.
Contributia diferitelor categoriilor de resurse
la cresterea PIB
Evolutia produsului intern brut
50,0%
8,0%
40,0%
7,9%
7,0%
7,3%
6,0%
30,0%
6,3%
5,0%
4,0%
20,0%
4,2%
3,0%
3,4%
2,6%
2,0%
1,0%
1,1%
0,0%
10,0%
0,6%
-0,8%
0,0%
-1,0%
-2,0%
-10,0%
-3,0%
-4,0%
-20,0%
-5,0%
-6,0%
-7,1%
-30,0%
-7,0%
-8,0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
T1
05
2014e
T3
05
T1
06
T3
06
T1
07
T3
07
T1
08
T3
08
T1
09
T3
09
T1
10
T3
10
T1
11
T3
11
T1
12
T3
12
T1
13
T3
13
T1
14
T1
14
-40,0%
evolutia PIB (%)
Sursa: Banca Nationala a Romaniei, Comisia Nationala de Prognoza
Constructii
Tranzactii imobiliare
Sursa: Banca Nationala a Romaniei, Comisia Nationala de Prognoza
Fundamentele pietei imobiliare sunt reflectate si de contributia sectorului de constructii la cresterea PIB. Acest sector
a avut o contributie negativa de 0.1%-0.3% in perioada trimestrul 1-trimestrul 3 2014. In schimb, tranzactiile imobiliare
au contribuit cu 0.1%-0.3%. Datele agregate la nivel national releva de asemenea ajustarea ritmului de constructie la
capacitatea de absorptie a pietei imobiliare.
Perspectivele pentru 2015 raman pozitive, cresterea economica prognozata este de 2.5%. Imbunatatirea mediului
economic este un semnal ca piata imobiliara va beneficia de premise favorabile pentru consolidarea si imbunatatirea
indicatorilor specifici de piata.
Analiza celor mai recente date macroeconomice evidentiaza continuarea scaderii ratei anuale a inflatiei, astfel ca, in
decembrie 2014, aceasta a atins un minim istoric de 0.83%. Aceasta evolutie este determinata de influenta preturilor
produselor din import care reflecta nivelurile joase ale inflatiei din zona euro, scaderea preturilor carburantilor, dublate
de o cerere agregata descendenta.
www.nairomania.ro
Economic overview
The evolution of the unemployment rate in 2014 is similar to 2013,
Annual inflation rate
recording a decreasing trend. During 2014, the unemployment rate
Annual inflation rate
12,00%
11,0%
recorded seasonal fluctuations with obvious decrease below 5% during
10,00%
10,0%
summer months due to seasonal employment. Unemployment rate
8,00%
8,0%
decreased from 5.90% in January 2014 to 5.18% in November 2014.
6,00%
6,0%
Although this aggregated economic indicator is lower compared to other
4,00%
4,0%
2,00%
2,0%
EU members, it does not reveal the significant discrepancies between
0,00%
0,0%
1.1.05
1/1/05
1.1.06
1/1/06
1.1.07
1/1/07
1.1.08
1/1/08
1.1.09
1/1/09
1.1.10
1/1/10
1.1.11
1/1/11
1.1.12
1/1/12
1.1.13
1/1/13
different areas in Romania, such as Vaslui County (10.95%), the area
1.1.14
1/1/14
Source: National Institute of Statistics
with the highest unemployment rate, and Ilfov County (1.53%) with the
lowest unemployment rate.
Unemployment rate - %
Unemployment rate - %
9,00%
9,0%
Under the circumstances of a significant reduction of the inflation rate,
8,00%
8,0%
7,00%
7,0%
NBR has succesively decreased the monetary policy interest rate during
6,00%
6,0%
2014, from 3.75% in January to 2.50% in December. The decision of
5,00%
5,0%
4,00%
4,0%
NBR should theoretically result in the decrease of the interest rates for
3,00%
3,0%
2,00%
2,0%
loans granted in national currency, including mortgage loans for real
1,00%
1,0%
0,00%
0,0%
1.1.05
1/1/05
1.1.06
1/1/06
1.1.07
1/1/07
1.1.08
1/1/08
1.1.09
1/1/09
1.1.10
1/1/10
1.1.11
1/1/11
1.1.12
1/1/12
1.1.13
1/1/13
1.1.14
1/1/14
Source: National Institute of Statistics
estate acquisition. The decisions of NBR in 2014 continue the policy of
progressive reduction of the monetary policy started in 2013.
Evolution of the monetary policy
interest rate
The effect of this decision is reflected in the reduction of the interest
Evolution of the monetary policy interest rate
rates for new mortgage loans granted in the national currency from
25,00%
25,0%
8.35% in December 2012 to 4.97% in November 2014. As a result of
20,00%
20,0%
this consecutive decrease, the effective annual interest rate granted in
15,00%
15,0%
national currency is almost similar with the rate quoted for loans granted
10,00%
10,0%
in Euro.
5,00%
5,0%
0,00%
0,0%
08.01.2003
08.01.2003
08.01.2005
08.01.2005
08.01.2007
08.01.2007
08.01.2009
08.01.2009
08.01.2011
08.01.2011
08.01.2013
08.01.2013
08.01.2015
08.01.2015
Source: National Bank of Romania
This decision aimed to increase the number of loans granted in national
currency in order to protect population against the negative effects of
devaluation. Indirectly, these decisions have resulted in the increase of
Interest rates for loans granted
for real estate purchase
the number of mortgage loans by 16% during November 2012-November
2014, according to the data provided by the NBR.
Interest rates for loans granted for real estate purchase
14,00%
14,0%
12,00%
12,0%
Exchange rate had small variations during 2014, the average monthly
10,00%
10,0%
rate fluctuated between 4.4-4.5 RON for 1 Euro. The stability of the
8,00%
8,0%
6,00%
6,0%
exchange rate, as well the prudent policy of NBR aiming to descourage
4,00%
4,0%
loans granted in foreign currencies protect the residential segment
2,00%
2,0%
0,00%
0,0%
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
RON
RON
EURO
Source: National Bank of Romania
2011
2011
Euro
2012
2012
2013
2013
2014
2014
against potential financial shocks generated by the devaluation of the
national currency.
Solvability of demand on the residential segment is revealed by the purchasing power of population. Average monthly
income per household are currently at 2.495 RON (937 RON per person) during the third quarter of 2014.
The structure of the household expenditures reflects the relatively limited potential of the residential segment
to recover, considering the available monetary resources alocated to the acquisition of a residential unit. Thus,
expenditures alocated to investments for the acquisition or construction of a residential unit, acquisition of plots have
a small weight in the total amount of the households’ expenditures, specifically 1.1%. Under these circumstances, the
banking sector has an important role for the residential segment, as the aquisition of the residential units is dependent
on the conditions imposed by the financial institutions.
www.nairomania.ro
Mediul economic
Evolutia somajului in 2014 este similara celei din 2013, inregistrand o
Rata anuala a inflatiei
tendinta de scadere. In timpul anului, rata somajului a cunoscut fluctuatii
Annual inflation rate
12,00%
11,0%
cu scaderi evidente sub nivelul de 5% in timpul lunilor de vara datorita
10,00%
10,0%
muncii sezoniere. Rata somajului a scazut de la 5.90% in ianurie 2014
8,00%
8,0%
la 5.18% in noiembrie 2014. Desi acest indicator economic agregat este
6,00%
6,0%
mai mic decat in alte tari membre UE, nu releva discrepantele regionale
4,00%
4,0%
2,00%
2,0%
0,00%
0,0%
1.1.05
1/1/05
imense din Romania intre zonele cu rata somajului de 10.95% (judetul
1.1.06
1/1/06
1.1.07
1/1/07
1.1.08
1/1/08
1.1.09
1/1/09
1.1.10
1/1/10
1.1.11
1/1/11
1.1.12
1/1/12
1.1.13
1/1/13
1.1.14
1/1/14
Vaslui) si cele cu nivel foarte redus de 1.53% (judetul Ilfov).
Sursa: Institutul National de Statistica
Pe fondul reducerii semnificative a ratei inflatiei, BNR a redus succesiv
Rata somajului - %
rata dobanzii de politica monetara in 2014, nivelul acesteia fiind redus
Unemployment rate - %
9,00%
9,0%
de la 3.75% in ianuarie, la 2.50% in decembrie. Decizia BNR ar trebui
8,00%
8,0%
7,00%
7,0%
sa rezulte teoretic in scaderea ratelor dobanzilor pentru creditele in lei,
6,00%
6,0%
5,00%
5,0%
inclusiv pentru cele destinate achizitiei de imobile. Deciziile din 2014 ale
4,00%
4,0%
3,00%
3,0%
BNR continua politica de reducere treptata a ratei dobanzii de politica
2,00%
2,0%
1,00%
1,0%
0,00%
0,0%
monetara din 2013.
1.1.05
1/1/05
1.1.06
1/1/06
1.1.07
1/1/07
1.1.08
1/1/08
1.1.09
1/1/09
1.1.10
1/1/10
1.1.11
1/1/11
1.1.12
1/1/12
1.1.13
1/1/13
1.1.14
1/1/14
Sursa: Institutul National de Statistica
Efectul acestor decizii se reflecta in reducerea ratelor dobanzii pentru
creditele imobiliare acordate in lei de la 8.35% in decembrie 2012 la
Evolutia ratei dobanzii de politica
monetara
4.97% in noiembrie 2014. Prin aceasta reducere semnificativa, dobanda
Evolution of the monetary policy interest rate
25,00%
25,0%
efectiva anuala pentru creditele in lei este similara dobanzii pentru
20,00%
20,0%
creditele acordate in Euro.
15,00%
15,0%
Aceasta decizie a urmarit sa stimuleze creditarea in moneda nationala,
10,00%
10,0%
pentru a proteja populatia de efectele devalorizarii monedei nationale.
5,00%
5,0%
Indirect, aceste decizii au stimulat cresterea volumului creditelor
0,00%
0,0%
08.01.2003
08.01.2003
08.01.2005
08.01.2005
08.01.2007
08.01.2007
08.01.2009
08.01.2009
08.01.2011
08.01.2011
08.01.2013
08.01.2013
08.01.2015
08.01.2015
Sursa: Banca Nationala a Romaniei
ipotecare cu 16% in perioada noiembrie 2012-noiembrie 2014, potrivit
informatiilor publicate de BNR.
Rata dobanzilor pentru creditele
imobiliare
Cursul valutar a avut o evolutie cu amplitudini mici pe intreg anul
2014, cursul mediu lunar fluctuand in intervalul 4.4-4.5 RON pentru 1
Interest rates for loans granted for real estate purchase
14,00%
14,0%
Euro. Stabilitatea cursului valutar, precum si politica prudenta a BNR
12,00%
12,0%
de descurajare a creditelor in monede straine protejeaza segmental
10,00%
10,0%
residential de eventuale socuri financiare generate de devalorizarea
8,00%
8,0%
6,00%
6,0%
monedei nationale.
4,00%
4,0%
2,00%
2,0%
0,00%
0,0%
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
RON
RON
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
2014
2014
Euro
EURO
Sursa: Banca Nationala a Romaniei
Solvability of demand on the residential segment is revealed by the purchasing power of population. Average monthly
income per household are currently at 2.495 RON (937 RON per person) during the third quarter of 2014.
The structure of the household expenditures reflects the relatively limited potential of the residential segment
to recover, considering the available monetary resources alocated to the acquisition of a residential unit. Thus,
expenditures alocated to investments for the acquisition or construction of a residential unit, acquisition of plots have
a small weight in the total amount of the households’ expenditures, specifically 1.1%. Under these circumstances, the
banking sector has an important role for the residential segment, as the aquisition of the residential units is dependent
on the conditions imposed by the financial institutions.
www.nairomania.ro
Office market
Office market
The general condition of the office market significantly improved compared to 2013, being obvious the increases
recorded in development and leasing activities, the decreasing tendency of the vacancy rates and yields. The
increase in the ratio of pre-leases in the total take-up represents a positive sign for developers and investors,
reflecting the confidence of different market players in the local economy and prospects of the local real estate
market. The construction works undertaken by developers are the proof of the optimistic expectations regarding the
future evolution of the market indicators.
Office development activity had a similar evolution compared to the evolution recorded in 2013, being completed a
total area of approximately 100.000 sq m. Among the project completed in 2014, there are AFI BP 2 and 3 (24.300
sq m), Green Court Bucharest (19.500 sq m), Ethos House (7.750 sq m), Hermes Business Campus (18.000 sq
m) and Green Gate (31.000 sq m). Generally, projects completed in 2014 are suitable for tenants that are willing to
occupy large areas, as demonstrated by the concluded transactions, including pre-leases.
Relocations are still dominating the local market, tenants are trying to improve the occupancy conditions, in terms of
quality and costs. However, the structure of the lease transactions is not almost exclusively dominated by relocations,
the ratio of other types of transactions (new leases, extensions) is increasing compared to previous years.
Maintaining the economic growth at the forecasted levels creates the conditions for increasing the number of new
comer companies, as some companies expressed their interest in this respect. In 2014, the majority of clients prefers
to maintain or extend the occupied spaces strongly contrasting with previous year when the occupied areas recorded
obvious decreases.
The persistence of pre-leases creates the conditions for a further development of this market segment during the
next years, especially as their share increased compared to 2013. Additionally, the decrease in the number of
renegociations and renewals might be interpreted in a similar way in 2014. However, this type of transactions are still
considered a viable solution for large tenants.
The geographic pattern of transactions shows a clearly concentration of transactions in the northern areas, followed
by the western and central areas. Although the initial preference of tenants remained the central areas, excepting
large tenants, these should reconsider the office enquiries and change their interest towards other areas due to lack
of properties suitable for their requirements.
www.nairomania.ro
Piata spatiilor
de birouri
Piata spatiilor de birouri
Situatia generala a segmentului de spatii de birouri s-a imbunatatit semnificativ comparativ cu 2013, fiind evidente
cresterile inregistrate de activitatea de dezvoltare si inchiriere, tendinta de scadere a ratei de neocupare si a ratelor
de capitalizare. Cresterea ponderii pre-inchirierilor reprezinta un semnal pozitiv pentru dezvoltatori si investitori,
aratand increderea pe care diferiti jucatori o au fata de economia locala si perspectivele pietei imobiliare locale.
Continuarea proiectelor de dezvoltare imobiliara este dovada asteptarilor optimiste in ceea ce priveste evolutia viitoare
a indicatorilor de piata.
Dezvoltarea imobiliara pe segmentul spatiilor de birouri a cunoscut o evolutie comparativa cu cea inregistrata in 2013,
fiind finalizata o suprafata de birouri de aproximativ 100.000 mp. Dintre proiectele finalizate in 2014, amintim AFI BP 2
si 3 (24.300 mp), Green Court Bucharest (19.500 mp), Ethos House (7.750 mp), Hermes Business Campus (18.000
mp), Green Gate (31.000 mp). In general, dezvoltarile finalizate in 2014s sunt adecvate pentru chiriasi care doresc
sa ocupe spatii mari, dovada fiind tranzactiile, inclusiv de preinchiriere, incheiate in aceste cladiri.
Tranzactiile de relocare sunt dominante in piata, chiriasii incercand sa isi imbunatateasca situatia locativa atat din
punct de vedere al calitatii si costurilor de ocupare. Totusi, structura tranzactiilor de inchiriere nu mai este aproape in
exclusivitate dominata de relocari, ponderea celorlalte tipuri de inchirieri (cereri noi, extinderi de spatii) devenind mai
mare comparativ cu anii anteriori.
Continuarea cresterii economice la nivelul prognozat creeaza premisele cresterii numarului de companii nou intrate
pe piata, existand interes din partea unor companii in acest sens. In 2014, majoritatea chiriasilor a optat pentru
mentinerea sau extinderea suprafetelor ocupate, contrastand puternic cu anul anterior in care suprafetele ocupate
de chiriasi au inregistrat diminuari evidente.
Persistenta pre-inchirierilor ofera premise pentru dezvoltarea ulterioara a acestui segment in anii urmatori, mai ales
ca ponderea acestora a crescut comparativ cu 2013. In acelasi sens, poate fi interpretata si scaderea numarului
de renegocieri si reinnoiri de contracte in 2014. Totusi, acest tip de tranzactii raman in continuare o solutie viabila
pentru chiriasii mari.
Raspandirea geografica a tranzactiilor indica o concentrare clara a acestora in zona nordica, urmata de cea vestica
si zona centrala. Desi prima optiune a clientilor ramane zona centrala, exceptie facand chiriasii mari, acestia trebuie
sa isi reconsidere solicitarile de inchiriere catre alte zone din cauza lipsei proprietatilor care sa raspunda criteriilor
impuse.
www.nairomania.ro
Office market
In 2014, the main demand drivers are companies
Q Building
Tenant
Area
Transaction
(sq m)
1 Bucharest One
Vodafone
16.000
Pre-lease
considering also pre-lease transactions, such
1 Iride Business Park
Procter&Gamble
6.000
Extension
as transactions concluded by Orange Romania
1 AFI BP 3
Endava
4.500
Pre-lease
2 Green Court Bucharest
Orange Romania
13.700
Pre-lease
2 West Gate
Ericsson Romania
4.000
Extension
2 Floreasca Park
Allianz
3.500
New lease
3 AFI BP 3
Telus
6.000
New lease
3.500
New lease
from telecomunications, IT, services and industry.
These
companies
have
leased
large
areas,
(13.700 sq m), Vodafone (16.000 sq m) and
Telekom Romania (25.000 sq m). In these particular
cases, transactions were concluded in the northern
part of Bucharest, as within this area large office
3 Hermes Business Campus Romanian International Bank
developments have been initiated.
3 Floreasca Park
Kellogg's
2.500
New lease
4 Globalworth Campus
Telekom Romania
25.000
Pre-lease
4 North Gate
Renault Technologie Roumanie
20.000
Extension
4 West Gate
Ericsson Romania
5.000
Extension
Limited development activity during 2010-2013 and the leasing activity recorded during 2012-2013 have diminished
the number of options that tenants have when consider the occupation of large areas. This situation created the
conditions for conclusion of pre-leases for large areas and contractual periods.
Relocations have been considered also for the consolidation of the occupied space. Vacant spaces generated by
the relocations that efectively occur in 2015 will create opportunities for other tenants to consolidate and extend the
occupied spaces.
Vacancy rate fluctuated around 14%, but the decreasing tendency is obvious, if the reference level is that recorded
at the end of 2013; the vacancy rate stabilized slightly under 14%. Areas of Bucharest recorded different vacancy
rates, with low rates in the central areas (under 10%) and rates over 20% in the northern boundaries of Pipera area.
Evolution of rents - Euro/sq m/month
Evolution of rents- Euro/sq m/month
Class A
Class B
Average rents remained stable throughout 2014, fluctuating between
25
25
16-18 Euro/sq m/month for class A properties centrally located, while
20
20
the rental level for offices located in secondary and peripheral areas
15
15
prefered by the tenants varied between 12-15 Euro/sq m/month. As
10
10
concern the peripheral areas with high vacancy rates, rental levels are
lower, generally fluctuating between 9-12 Euro/sq m/month.
5
0
0
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
Class A
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
2014
2014
Obviously the fundaments of the office market improved and consolidated
Class B
Source: NAI Romania
during 2013-2014. Considering also that the outlooks are more
optimistic, yields have a decreasing tendency fluctuating between
Office yield evolution
Office yield evolution
Class A
Class B
7.75-8.00% for class A offices and between 8.50-8.75% for class B
12
12
properties. The attractivity of investment products should be analyzed
99
in the larger context of the European markets. The prices of properties
66
related to their capacity to generate incomes are lower compared to
33
00
other European markets, while the volatility of the market indicators have
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
Class A
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
2014
2014
significantly diminished.
Class B
Source: NAI Romania
www.nairomania.ro
Piata spatiilor de birouri
Principalii sustinatori ai cererii in 2014 au fost
companiile din telecomunicatii, IT, servicii si
Trim. Cladire
Chirias
Suprafata
Tip
(mp)
tranzactie
industrie. Aceste companii au inchiriat suprafete
1
Bucharest One
Vodafone
16.000
Pre-inchiriere
mari, considerand inclusiv incheierea de contracte
1
Iride Business Park
Procter&Gamble
6.000
Extindere
de pre-inchiriere, asa cum sunt tranzactiile
1
AFI BP 3
Endava
4.500
Pre-inchiriere
2
Green Court Bucharest
Orange Romania
13.700
Pre-inchiriere
2
West Gate
Ericsson Romania
4.000
Extindere
2
Floreasca Park
Allianz
3.500
Contract nou
Telus
6.000
Contract nou
3.500
Contract nou
incheiate de Orange Romania (13.700 mp),
Vodafone (16.000 mp) si Telekom Romania
(25.000 mp). In cazul acestor chiriasi, tranzactiile
3
AFI BP 3
s-au incheiat in zona de nord a Bucurestiului,
3
Hermes Business Campus Romanian International Bank
deoarece in aceasta zona s-au demarat lucrarile
3
Floreasca Park
Kellogg's
2.500
Contract nou
de constructie pentru cladiri mari
4
Globalworth Campus
Telekom Romania
25.000
Pre-inchiriere
4
North Gate
Renault Technologie Roumanie
20.000
Extindere
4
West Gate
Ericsson Romania
5.000
Extindere
Activitatea limitata de dezvoltare imobiliara din perioada 2010-2013 si activitatea de inchiriere din perioada 20122013 a diminuat din numarul de optiuni pe care le au chiriasii care doresc ocuparea unor suprafete mari. Aceasta
situatie a creat premisele pentru semnarea unor contracte de pre-inchiriere pentru suprafetele mari si perioade de
inchiriere mai indelungate.
Relocarile chiriasilor au fost realizate si pentru a consolida spatiul ocupat. Spatiile libere generate de relocarile care
vor fi deveni efective in 2015, vor crea oportunitati pentru ceilalti chiriasi pentru a consolida spatiile ocupate sau
pentru a extinde spatiile ocupate.
Rata de neocupare a fluctuat in jurul nivelului de 14%, insa tendinta este de scadere, daca se raporteaza la nivelul
ratei de neocupare inregistrata la sfarsitul anului 2013, stabilizandu-se putin sub nivelul de 14%. Zonele din Bucuresti
inregistreaza rate de neocupare neuniforme, cu niveluri scazute in zonele centrale (sub 10%) si cu zone care
depasesc 20% in extremitatea nordica a zonei Pipera.
Evolutia chiriei medii - Euro/mp/luna
Evolution of rents- Euro/sq m/month
Class A
Class B
Chiriile medii au ramas stabile pe parcursul anului 2014, fluctuand in
25
25
intervalul 16-18 Euro/mp/luna pentru proprietatile clasa A din zona
20
20
centrala, in timp ce proprietatile din zonele secundare sau periferice
15
15
care sunt cautate de chiriasi au chirii care variaza intre 12-15 Euro/mp/
10
10
luna. In cazul zonelor periferice cu disponibilitate mai mare a spatiilor
de birouri, chiriile sunt mai reduse, fluctuand in general intre 9-12 Euro/
5
0
0
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
Clasa A
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
2014
2014
Sursa: NAI Romania
In mod evident, fundamentele pietei de birouri s-au imbunatatit si
consolidat in perioada 2013-2014. Avand in vedere faptul ca si
Office yield evolution
Evolutia ratelor de capitalizare
Class A
Class B
perspectivele sunt mai optimiste, ratele de capitalizare au o tendinta
12
12
de micsorare fluctuand la sfarsitul anului 2014 intre 7.75-8.00% pentru
99
proprietatile clasa A si intre 8.50-8.75% pentru proprietatile de clasa
66
B. Atractivitatea produselor imobiliare de investitii trebuie analizata si in
33
00
mp/luna.
Clasa B
contextul regional al pietelor europene. Preturile raportate la potentialul
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
Clasa A
2011
2011
Clasa B
2012
2012
2013
2013
2014
2014
de generare venituri sunt mai mici comparativ cu alte piete europene, in
timp ce volatilitatea indicatorilor de piata s-a diminuat semnificativ.
Sursa: NAI Romania
www.nairomania.ro
Office market
During 2014, Skanska sold Green Court Bucharest office building (19.500 sq m leasable area) to the investment
fund Globalworth Real Estate Investments. The same investor acquired Nusco Tower office building (23.000 sq m
leasable area) for a total price of Euro 46 Million.
Considering the office enquiries recorded during 2013-2014, developers initiated the construction works for class
A office buildings that benefit of adequate location, including the proximity of important transportation routes, and
high quality standards. These developments are located in the northern and western areas of Bucharest, mainly in
Pipera area.
Pre-lease transactions will be concluded also in 2015, as the development that offer large areas are still under
construction, while tenants are looking for solutions that meet the technical requirements and generate low
construction costs.
Developers have been encouraged by the succes of the initial phases of developments and decided to continue the
projects that are already pre-leased. During 2015-2016, the completion of 100.000-120.000 sq m of modern offices
is expected, including projects such as AFI BP 4 and 5, Green Court 2.
The completion of new buildings and vacant space resulted after the leave of the tenants due to relocations of their
activity will generate an increasing tendency of the vacancy rate. The stability or decrease of the vacancy rate would
be probable if the number of new comer companies will obviously incease while tenants that have not relocated
during previous years decided to extend their occupied space.
www.nairomania.ro
Piata spatiilor de birouri
In 2014, Skanska a vandut cladirea de birouri Green Court Bucharest (19.500 mp suprafata inchiriabila) catre
compania de investitii imobiliare Globalworth Real Estate Investments. Acelasi investitor a achizitionat cladirea de
birouri Nusco Tower (23.000 mp suprafata inchiriabila) pentru pretul de 46 milioane de Euro.
Avand in vedere solicitarile chiriasilor din perioada 2013-2014, dezvoltatorii au initiat lucrari de constructie pentru
cladiri de birouri clasa A, care sa beneficieze de localizare adecvata, inclusiv proximitatea retelelor importante de
transport in comun, si caracteristici la standarde internationale. Aceste proiecte sunt localizate cu precadere in zonele
de nord si vest ale Bucurestiului, cu precadere in zona Pipera.
Tranzactiile de perinchiriere vor fi prezente si in 2015, avand in vedere ca proiecte cu suprafete generoase sunt in
stadiul de constructie, iar chiriasii cauta solutii care sa indeplineasca solicitarile tehnice si sa genereze costuri de
ocupare mai mici.
Dezvoltatorii au fost incurajati de succesul fazelor incipiente si continua dezvoltarea proiectelor care inregistreaza
tranzactii de preinchiriere. In perioada 2015-2016, se asteapta finalizarea unei suprafete de 100.000-120.000 mp,
incluzand proiecte precum AFI BP 4 si 5, Green Court 2.
Finalizarea unor noi cladiri si eliberarea cladirilor ocupate de chiriasi care si-au relocat activitatea vor genera o tendinta
de crestere a ratei de neocupare. Mentinerea sau scadere ratei de neocupare ar fi probabila doar daca numarul
companii nou venite pe piata locala va creste vizibil, dublat fiind de o tendinta de extindere a chiriasilor, care nu s-au
relocat in anii anteriori.
www.nairomania.ro
Residential
market
Residential market
Residential market recorded evident improvements during 2014, especially on new apartment segment, being
sustained by lower financing costs and a better adaptation of the offer to the requirements of demand in terms of
prices and characteristics of residential units. The number of transactions increased, the marketing period to dispose
a residential unit diminished compared to 2013, while the prospection activity of the potential clients has increased.
During 2014, the offer containing new residential units, especially apartments, was well adapted to the requirements
of middle income customers. Real estate development activity resulted in the completion of small scale developments
that were located in peripheral and secondary areas, in the proximity of important public transportation routes, such
as Berceni, Militari and Ghencea. A similar evolution was recorded in neighbouring localities that limit the above
mentioned areas.
The aim of the architectural concept is to provide residential units that can be acquired through “First time buyer”
program. These residential projects are developed by local developers that finance their investment by own financial
resources, reinvesting the financial resources generated by previous sale of apartments.
Developers that finance their investments by own resources have a greater flexibility of the sale policy, proposing
alternative prices depending on the payment period and methods. The increasing tendency of transactions was
sustained also by this flexibility in negotiation.
Demand for apartments with prices below 50.000 Euro represents the largest ratio within the total demand. The
purchasing power is the element that generate this structure of demand. The characteristics of the mortgage loans
financed by “First Time Buyer” program are specific for the entire residential market, as the dynamic of this segment
is generated by the guvernamental program.
The structure of residential transactions reveal that 2 room apartments remained the most sought after properties in
2014 (51%), similar with the period 2009-2013. Approximately 30% of the transactions involved 3 room apartments.
During 2014, the demand for studios recorded a decreasing tendency while the demand for 3 room apartments
slightly increased.
Structure of mortgage loans by value
This typology of demand generated a significant increase in the number
of 2 room apartments completed in 2013 and 2014; the number of this
>50.000
<30.000
Euro
24%
19%
40.000-50.000
Euro
type of residential units doubled compared to 2012 in the Bucharest-
Euro
32
%
Ilfov region. The structure of completed residential units during 20122013 reveals a significant increase in the number of studios and 2 room
apartments, while the number of residential units with a larger number
25%
30.000-40.000
Euro
Source: FNGCIMM
of rooms stagnated.
www.nairomania.ro
Piata rezidentiala
Piata rezidentiala
Piata rezidentiala a inregistrat progrese evidente in 2014, in special pe segmentul apartamentelor noi, fiind sustinuta
de costurile de finantare mai reduse si de adaptarea ofertei la solicitarile cererii, atat din punctul de vedere al pretului,
cat si al caracteristicilor locuintelor. Numarul tranzactiilor a crescut, perioada necesara pentru vanzarea locuintelor s-a
diminuat comparativ 2013, in timp ce activitatea de prospectare a pietei din partea potentialilor clienti s-a intensificat.
In 2014, oferta de unitati locative noi, in special apartamente, s-a adaptat bine nevoilor clientilor cu venituri medii.
Activitatea de dezvoltare imobiliara pe acest segment a avut ca rezultat finalizarea unor dezvoltari de mici dimensiuni,
care s-au localizat in zonele periferice si secundare din vecinatatea arterelor principale de transport public, precum
Berceni, Militari, Ghencea. Aceeasi evolutia s-a inregistrat si in comunele limitrofe Bucurestiului, care se invecineaza
cu zonele mai sus amintite.
Conceptul arhitectural al locuintelor a fost stabilit in special pentru a oferi locuinte, care sa faciliteze achizitia acestora
prin programul Prima Casa. Aceste proiecte rezidentiale sunt dezvoltate de dezvoltatori autohtoni, care finanteaza din
surse proprii lucrarile de constructie, reinvestind resursele financiare generate de vanzarile anterioare de apartamente.
Dezvoltatorii care reusesc sa isi finanteze constructiile din surse proprii au o mare flexibilitate in politica de vanzari,
propunand clientilor variante de pret in functie de modalitatea si perioada de plata. Evolutia ascendenta a tranzactiilor
a fost sustinuta si de aceasta flexibilitate in negociere.
Cererea pentru apartamente cu preturi sub 50.000 Euro reprezinta cea mai mare pondere in cererea totala. Puterea
de cumparare este elementul care determina aceasta structura a cererii. Caracteristicile creditelor imobiliare “Prima
Casa” sunt definitorii pentru intreaga piata rezidentiala, deoarece dinamica acestui segment este generata de
programul de stimulare a cererii de locuinte.
Structura tranzactiilor cu locuinte indica faptul ca apartamentele cu 2 camere au ramas preferatele cumparatorilor si
in 2014 (51%), asa cum s-a mentinut in perioada 2009-2013. Cumparatorii au preferat apartamentele cu 3 camere
in proportie de 30%. In 2014 se observa o tendinta de diminuare a cererii pentru garsoniere si o crestere a cererii
pentru apartamente de 3 camere.
Structure of mortgage loans by value
Aceasta tipologie a cererii a generat o crestere semnificativa a numarului
de apartamente cu 2 camere in 2013, numarul anual al acestora
>50.000
<30.000
Euro
24%
19%
40.000-50.000
Euro
dublandu-se comparativ cu 2012 in regiunea de dezvoltare Bucuresti-
Euro
32
%
Ilfov. Structura locuintelor finalizate in perioada 2012-2013 indica o
crestere evidenta a numarului garsonierelor si apartamentelor cu 2
camere, in timp ce numarul locuintelor cu un numar mai mare de camere
25%
30.000-40.000
Euro
Source: FNGCIMM
a stagnat.
www.nairomania.ro
Residential market
According to the data provided by the FNGCIMM, in 2014
a number of 25.000 of guarantees were granted by the
Evolution of completed residential
units by number of rooms
Evolution of completed residential units by number of rooms
1400
institution to the financial institutions, the average value
1200
1200
of a guarantee being 36.000 Euro. The average value
1000
1000
per transaction confirm the fact that the residential units
800
800
with prices below 50.000 Euro are the most sought after
600
600
by the medium income clients. The main decision criteria
400
400
for this client segment are the price (the most important
criterion), quality of the residential unit, flexibility of the sale
200
200
00
conditions, accessibility to public transaportation, location.
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
Studio
2009
2009
2008
2008
Studio
2 rooms
2 rooms
3 rooms
3 rooms
2010
2010
4 rooms
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
5 rooms and larger
4 rooms
5 rooms and larger
Source: National Institute of Statistics
Overall, the prices for newly completed apartments were stable in 2014. The average sale price of the apartments
addressed to medium income clients located in the peripheral areas of Bucharest varied between 750-850 Euro/sq
m in Berceni, between 800-900 Euro/sq m in Popesti-Leordeni area (perimeter located in the proximity of the metro),
between 725-800 Euro/sq m in the southern extremity of Rahova area and between 750-850 Euro/sq m in Militari
area. These prices fluctuate based on the distance between main public transportation routes, number of available
residential units within the project and quality of finishing.
On the old apartment segment, generally the asking prices are slightly higher compared to the asking prices on the
periferal area. Proximity of the main transportation routes and service facilities is the factor that increase the prices
of these apartments:
Asking prices for old apartments in different areas of Bucharest
District 1
Area
District 2
Euro/sq m
Area
District 3
Euro/sq m
Area
Euro/sq m
975 - 1.075
Aviatiei
1.200 - 1.300
Doamna Ghica-Colentina
925 - 975
Dristor
Banu Manta-Titulescu
1.100 - 1.200
Floreasca
1.100 - 1.200
1 Decembrie–Th.Pallady
825 - 925
Dorobanti
1.250 - 1.400
Iancului
925 - 1.025
Titan
900 - 1.000
Grivita
850 - 950
Mihai Bravu
1.000 - 1.125
Vitanul Nou
1.000 - 1.125
Mihalache
1.100 - 1.200
Mosilor
1.000 - 1.125
Vitanul Vechi
850 - 950
Pajura-Bucurestii Noi
850 - 925
Pantelimon
850 - 925
Unirii
1.200 - 1.450
Stefan cel Mare
975 - 1.125
Tei
850 - 950
District 4
District 5
District 6
Area
Euro/sq m
Area
Euro/sq m
Area
Euro/sq m
Berceni
850 - 950
Alexandriei
650 - 750
Bd.Timisoara
850 - 975
Piata Sudului-Brancoveanu
975 - 1.075
Ferentari
625 - 725
Crangasi
925 - 1.025
Progresului-Giurgiului
725 - 850
Panduri-13 Septembrie
1100 - 1200
Drumul Taberei
850 - 975
Oltenitei
850 - 925
Rahova
750 - 850
Ghencea
850 - 925
Tineretului
1.000 - 1.125
Giulesti
750 - 825
Militari – Lujerului
875 - 1.000
Militari – Gorjului - Pacii
825 - 900
www.nairomania.ro
Piata rezidentiala
Conform datelor furnizate de Fondul National de Garantare
a Creditelor pentru Intreprinderile Mici si Mijlocii, au fost
Evolutia apartamentelor finalizate in
Bucuresti in functie de numarul de camere
Evolution of completed residential units by number of rooms
1400
acordate aproximativ 25.000 de garantii in 2014, cu o
1200
1200
valoare medie de 36.000 Euro. Valoarea medie a unei
1000
1000
tranzactii confirma faptul ca locuintele cu un pret sub
800
800
50.000 Euro sunt cele mai cautate. Principalele criterii
600
600
decizionale ale cumparatorilor sunt pretul (cel mai important
400
400
criteriu), calitatea locuintelor, flexibilitatea conditiilor de
vanzare, accesul la transportul in comun, localizarea.
200
200
00
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
Cu o camera
2009
2009
2008
2008
Studio
2 rooms
3 rooms
Cu 2 camere
4 rooms
2010
2010
5 rooms and larger
Cu 3 camere
2011
2011
Cu 4 camere
2012
2012
2013
2013
Cu 5 camere si peste
Source: National Institute of Statistics
In ansamblu, preturile apartamentelor noi in Bucuresti au fost stabile in 2014. Pretul mediu al apartamentelor noi
destinate clientilor cu venituri medii in zonele periferice variaza intre 750-850 in Berceni, intre 800 si 900 Euro/
mp in zona Popesti-Leordeni (zona situata in proximitatea metroului), intre 725 si 800/mp in extremitatea sudica
a zonei Rahova si intre 750 si 850 euro/mp in zona Militari. Aceste preturi medii variaza in functie de distanta fata
de principalele mijloace de transport in comun, numarul de locuinte disponibile in ansamblul rezidential si calitatea
finisajelor.
Pe segmentul apartamentelor vechi se constata un interval de preturi solicitate putin mai ridicat fata de apartamentele
noi din zonele periferice. Proximitatea mijloacelor de transport in comun si a facilitatilor este elementul care sporeste
pretul acestor apartamente:
Preturi solicitate in functie de zonele din Bucuresti
Sector 1
Sector 2
Sector 3
Zona
Euro/mp
Zona
Euro/mp
Zona
Euro/mp
Aviatiei
1.200 - 1.300
Doamna Ghica-Colentina
925 - 975
Dristor
975 - 1.075
825 - 925
Banu Manta-Titulescu
1.100 - 1.200
Floreasca
1.100 - 1.200
1 Decembrie–Th.Pallady
Dorobanti
1.250 - 1.400
Iancului
925 - 1.025
Titan
900 - 1.000
Grivita
850 - 950
Mihai Bravu
1.000 - 1.125
Vitanul Nou
1.000 - 1.125
Mihalache
1.100 - 1.200
Mosilor
1.000 - 1.125
Vitanul Vechi
850 - 950
Pajura-Bucurestii Noi
850 - 925
Pantelimon
850 - 925
Unirii
1.200 - 1.450
Stefan cel Mare
975 - 1.125
Tei
850 - 950
Sector 4
Sector 5
Sector 6
Zona
Euro/mp
Zona
Euro/mp
Zona
Euro/mp
Berceni
850 - 950
Alexandriei
650 - 750
Bd.Timisoara
850 - 975
Piata Sudului-Brancoveanu
975 - 1.075
Ferentari
625 - 725
Crangasi
925 - 1.025
Progresului-Giurgiului
725 - 850
Panduri-13 Septembrie
1100 - 1200
Drumul Taberei
850 - 975
Oltenitei
850 - 925
Rahova
750 - 850
Ghencea
850 - 925
Tineretului
1.000 - 1.125
Giulesti
750 - 825
Militari – Lujerului
875 - 1.000
Militari – Gorjului - Pacii
825 - 900
www.nairomania.ro
Residential market
New apartments located in the central area (Dacia, Polona, Domenii and Cotroceni) and secondary areas (Iancului,
Obor and Dristor) are targeted by medium-high income customers that intend to acquire residential units for personal
use. On this segment, demand is mainly sustained by final users. The number of potential clients that intend to
acquire residential units for renting purposes is extremely low. The general concept of the units located in the above
mentioned areas is is different compared to apartments located in the peripheral areas. These apartments benefit of
large usable areas, underground parking, quality finishing. Sale prices reflect these advantages, generally fluctuating
between 1.150 Euro and 1.300 Euro/sq m (excluding VAT), depending on location and quality of finishing and
particular location of the apartments within the building.
The activity on the high income client segment was concentrated in the northern Bucharest, especially in NorduluiHerastrau and Primaverii areas. Demand on the premium property segment mainly targeted properties with prices
between 200.000 and 300.000 Euro and usable areas larger than 100 sq m. The demand is mainly sustained by final
users, aquisitions for investment purposes were not attractive for the customers. This segment recorded sporadic
developments due to limited availability of plots adequate for this type of residential projects.
Generally, the residential segment will not recorded significant changes compared to 2014, but some changes are
expected. Unless the economic environment negatively influence the general evolution of the real estate market,
demand will continue the positive evolution recorded between 2013 and 2014. At the same time, demand is
expected to diversify and the preferences of the clients will include also larger apartments, located in secondary areas
of Bucharest and well-established residential areas, such as the northern part of Bucharest. This diversification of
demand is expected as part of the potential clients will consider the extension and/or improvement of the residential
units. Thus, the demand will not be exclusively sustained by “First Time Buyer” program.
Building permits
7000
7000
Small scale residential developments located in peripheral
6000
6000
locations and secondary areas will dominate the local market.
5000
5000
On medium income segment, potential and effective demand
Building permits
4000
4000
encourage developers to initiate projects special designed for
3000
3000
this category of clients. Development costs, including those
2000
2000
generated by the acquisition of the land, allow developers to
quote attractive sale prices for the potential clients on this
1000
1000
0
0
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
Ilfov
Ilfov
2009
2009
2010
2010
Municipiul Bucuresti
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
market segment.
Municipiul Bucuresti
Source: National Institute of Statistics
Under the circumstances of a stable demand and very sensitive to the fluctuations of the prices, developers/owners
are expected to maintain stable the sale prices for apartments addressed to medium income clients. In addition, the
supply will increase and diversify, considering the increase in the number of construction permits issued in 2013
compared to 2012, many of these proposed developments were completed in 2014 and are marketed during 2015.
Among the residential developments proposed for completion in 2015, the following project are mentioned Cortina
Residence, City Point, Metropolitan Aviatiei and Militari Residence. In addition, there are other residential projects
situated in the peripheral areas of Bucharest and neighbouring localities in the proximity of Berceni, Ghencea and
Militari areas.
In 2015, the offer will be supplied with properties curretly owned by investment funds and companies that administrate
debts and loans in default. Financial institutions have disposed large portfolios of debts and/or loans in default, the
companies that acquired these portfolios intend to dispose them and obtain liquidity. However, the availability of
these properties will not generate changes in prices or significant changes in the typology of the properties available
for sale.
www.nairomania.ro
Piata rezidentiala
Apartamentele noi din zona centrala (Dacia, Polona, Domenii, Cotroceni) si cea secundara (Iancului, Obor, Dristor),
se bucura de interesul clientilor cu venituri mari, care doresc achizitia de locuinte pentru utilizare personala. Pe acest
segment, cererea este in special sustinuta de utilizatorii finali. Numarul clientilor potentiali care doresc sa achizitioneze
locuinte in scopul inchirierii este foarte limitat. Conceptul general al locuintelor oferite la vanzare in aceste zone este
diferit fata de cel din zonele periferice, beneficiind de suprafete utile mai mari, parcaje subterane, finisaje de calitate.
Preturile de vanzare reflecta aceste avantaje, fluctand in general intre 1.150 Euro si 1.300 Euro/mp (exclusiv TVA), in
functie de localizare, calitatea finisajelor si dispunerea apartamentului in interiorul ansamblului rezidential.
Activitatea pe segmentul proprietatilor pentru clienti cu venituri mari s-a concentrat in nordul Bucurestiului, in special
in zona Nordului-Herastrau, Primaverii. Cererea pe segmentul premium a vizat in principal proprietati cu preturi
cuprinse intre 200.000-300.000 Euro si suprafete mai mari de 100 mp. Principalii purtatori ai cererii au fost utilizatorii
finali, achizitiile in scop investitional nu mai sunt atractive pentru cumparatori. Acest segment inregistreaza dezvoltari
sporadice, din cauza lipsei loturilor de teren adecvate pentru acest tip de dezvoltari.
In termeni generali, segmentul rezidential nu va cunoaste modificari semnificative comparativ cu 2014, insa unele
schimbari sunt asteptate. In conditiile in care mediul economic nu va perturba evolutia generala a pietei imobiliare,
cererea isi va continua evolutia pozitiva din perioada 2013-2014. Tototdata, este asteptata o diversificare a cererii,
care va include si apartamentele mai mari, localizate in zone secundare, precum si in zone consacrate, precum zona
de nord a Bucurestiului. Aceasta diversificare a cererii este probabila avand in vedere ca o parte a clientilor potentiali
va considera sa extinda spatiul de locuit sau/si imbunatateasca situatia locativa. Astfel, cererea nu se va mai baza
aproape in exclusivitate pe programul “Prima Casa”.
Numarul de locuinte autorizate
7000
7000
Dezvoltarile imobiliare de mici dimensiuni din zonele
6000
6000
periferice si secundare vor domina piata. Pe segmentul
5000
5000
clientilor cu venituri medii, cererea potentiala precum si cea
Building permits
4000
4000
efectiva incurajeaza dezvoltatorii sa initieze proiecte special
3000
3000
concepute pentru aceasta categorie de clienti. Costurile de
2000
2000
dezvoltare, incluzand si cele generate de achizitia terenurilor,
permit promovarea unor preturi de vanzare atractive pentru
1000
1000
0
0
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
Ilfov
Ilfov
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
Municipiul Bucuresti
cumparatorii existenti pe acest segment.
Municipiul Bucuresti
Sursa: Institutul National de Statistica
Pe fundalul unei cereri constante si inca foarte sensibila la pret, se asteapta ca dezvoltatorii/proprietarii sa mentina
preturile de vanzare pentru apartamentele destinate clientilor cu venituri medii. In plus, oferta de locuinte va creste si
se va diversifica, avand in vedere cresterea numarului de autorizatii de construire emise in 2013, comparativ cu 2012,
multe din aceste locuinte avand ca termen de finalizare 2014 si disponibilitate de vanzare 2015. Dintre proiectele
mari cu termen de finalizare 2015, amintim Cortina Residence, City Point, Metropolitan Aviatiei, Militari Residence.
Acestora li se adauga proiectele rezidentiale situate in zonele periferice ale Bucurestiului si in localitatile invecinate
care delimiteaza zonele Berceni, Ghencea, Militari.
In 2015 oferta de locuinte va fi completata cu proprietatile detinute de diferite fonduri de investitii sau companii
care gestioneaza creante si credite neperformante. Bancile din Romania au vandut portofolii mari de creante si/
sau proprietati neperformante, detinatorii acestora incercand sa obtina lichiditate in acest an. Insa disponibilitatea
acestora pe piata nu va genera modificari ale preturilor sau schimbari semnificative in tipologia locuintelor aflate la
vanzare.
www.nairomania.ro
Retail market
Retail market
Generally, the retail segment had a positive evolution, being characterized by the completion of the construction
works for the shopping centers initiated during previous years, extension of specialized retail networks, supermarket
and hypermarkets, a relative stability of the rental levels and by the intention of the investors to acquire retail
properties as investment product.
The on-street retail market recorded also a slight improvement, proved by the higher interest of tenants for this
segment. The marketing period for these retail units diminished even if the rental level remained relatively constant
compared to 2013. The most sought after properties are those located in the Historical Center, as well as those
situated in the proximity of high concentration of pedestrian traffic. By asking sustainable rental levels related to the
capacity of the retail unit to generate a certain level of sales reduced the rotation of tenants in a specific property.
On the shopping center segment, in 2014, the construction works were completed for the retail park Vulcan Value
Centre (25.000 sq m of leasable area), locate in the south-western area of Bucharest. The project developed by NEPI
is anchored by Carrefour, footwear and clothing retailers. In the south-south-western area of Bucharest, Immochan
completed the Ghencea Shopping Centre (30.000 sq m).
As a number of DIY retailers (Obi) ceased the operations while the transactions concluded during 2013-2014
reflected the acquisition of Bricostore by Kingfisher and bauMax by Leroy Merlin, this specialized market segment
recorded a concentration of operations. This tendency is obvious under the circumstances of a rapid extension of
the local retail Dedeman. DIY segment is dependent on the evolution of the construction industry, especially on the
residential segment. The expected positive evolution of the residential market improves the outlook for this specific
market sector.
Average rental levels for prime shopping centers located in Bucharest fluctuate around 50 Euro/sq m/month,
excepting for anchor tenants. For less attractive shopping centers, the rental levels are obviously lower. Rents for on
street units did not recorded notable changes compared to 2013. These fluctuate depending on the location of the
property, as well on the particularity of the micro-area. Thus, the average rents fluctuate between 10-15 Euro/sq m/
month in Pantelimon, between 20-30 Euro/sq m/month in Colentina-Obor, Stefan cel Mare, between 15-25 Euro/
sq m/month in Militari, between 30-40 Euro/sq m/month in Titulescu-Victoriei Square and between 40-55 Euro/sq
m/month in central area, excepting for units with great commercial visibility and reduced exposure/pedestrian traffic.
The yield levels for shopping centers had a descending evolution during 2014, these fluctuating around 8% at the
end of the year. This level is among the highest compared to other countries located in the CEE region. Commercial
properties are attractive investment products for investors. As a proof, Immochan acquired Auchan Pitesti Gavana
(77.800 sq m) for a price of Euro 19 Million while Revetas acquired Vitantis shopping park from Equest.
www.nairomania.ro
Piata spatiilor
comerciale
Piata spatiilor comerciale
In general, segmentul spatiilor comerciale a avut o evolutie pozitiva, fiind caracterizat de finalizarea lucrarilor de constructie pentru centrele comerciale initiate in anii anteriori, extinderea retelelor comerciale specializate si a celor tip
supermarket si hypermarket, o relativa stabilitate a chiriilor si intentia investitorilor de a cumpara acest tip de produs
investitional.
Segmentul spatiilor comerciale stradale a cunoscut o usoara imbunatatire, dovada fiind interesul mai mare al chiriasilor pentru acestea. Perioada necesara pentru inchirierea acestora s-a diminuat chiar daca nivelul chiriilor a ramas
relativ constant comparativ cu 2013. Cele mai cautate spatii sunt cele din Centrul Istoric, precum si cele situate in
proximitatea marilor concentrari de trafic pietonal. Practicarea unor chirii sustenabile raportate la capacitatea spatiului
comercial de a genera un anumit nivel al vanzarilor a redus semnificativ rotatia chiriasilor intr-un anumit spatiu.
Pe segmentul centrelor comerciale, in 2014, au fost finalizate lucrarile de constructie pentru parcul comercial Vulcan
Value Centre (25.000 mp inchiriabili), localizat in zona de sud-vest a Bucurestiului. Proiectul dezvoltat de NEPI este
ancorat de Carrefour si lanturi comerciale de haine si incaltaminte. Tot in zona de sud-vest a Bucurestiului, a fost
finalizat proiectul Ghencea Shopping Centre (30.000 mp) dezvoltat de catre Immochan.
Ca efect al incetarii activitatii unor comercianti din sectorul de bricolaj (Obi) sau al tranzactiilor incheiate in perioada
2013-2014, prin care operatiunile Bricostore au fost cumparate de Kingfisher, iar cele ale bauMax de catre Leroy
Merlin, acest segment de piata a cunoscut o concentrare a activitatii. Aceasta tendinta se inregistreaza in contextul extinderii rapide a operatorului local Dedeman. Segmentul de bricolaj este legat direct de evolutia sectorului de
constructii, in special a celui rezidential. Anticipata evolutie pozitiva a pietei rezidentiale imbunatateste perspectivele
acestui segment de piata.
Chiriile pentru spatiile din centrele comerciale prime din Bucuresti variaza in jurul nivelului de 50 Euro/mp/ luna,
exceptie facand chiriasii tip ancora. Pentru centrele comerciale mai putin atractive, chiria este sensibil mai mica.
Chiria pentru spatiile comerciale stradale nu au cunoscut modificari notabile comparativ cu 2013. Acestea variaza in
functie de localizarea in cadrul Bucurestiului, precum si de specificitatea micro-zonei in care se afla. Astfel, chiriile
medii variaza intre 10-15 Euro/mp/luna in zona Pantelimon, Colentina-Obor, Stefan cel Mare intre 20-30 Euro/mp/
luna, Militari intre 15-25 Euro/mp/luna, Titulescu-Piata Victoriei intre 30-40 Euro/mp/luna, zona centrala intre 40-55
Euro/mp/luna, exceptie zonele cu expunere mare sau cu vizibilitate/trafic pietonal redus.
Nivelul ratelor de capitalizare pentru centrele comerciale a avut o evolutie descendenta in 2014, acestea fluctuand
in jurul nivelului de 8%. Acest nivel este printre cele mai ridicate comparativ cu celelalte piete din zona central-est
europeana. Proprietatile comerciale sunt produse investitionale atractive pentru investitori. Dovada sunt tranzactiile
incheiate de Immochan, prin care a fost cumparat centru comercial Auchan Pitesti Gavana (77.800 mp) pentru suma
de 19 milioane Euro si cea incheiata de Revetas prin care a cumparat Vitantis de la Equest.
www.nairomania.ro
Retail maerket
The future positive evolution of this market segment is reflected by the expectations of investors that acquired
shopping centers in 2014. The most significant transaction was the acquisition of Promenada Mall (40.300 sq m of
leasable area) by the investment fund NEPI from Raiffeisen Evolution for a price of Euro 148 Million.
During 2015 it is expected the completion of the construction works for Mega Mall, Pantelimon area that will add
approximately 70.000 sq m to the existing modern stock of retail properties. This shopping center will be anchored
by Carrefour, World Class, C&A H&M. In the same time, the construction works for ParkLake Plaza (79.000 sq m)
will continue. This project is developed in Titan area by Caelum Development and Sonae Sierra. Among the retail
developments expected to be initiated in 2015, there are Victorya City, in Bucurestii Noi area, and Dedeman, in
Pantelimon area. During the next period, it is expected that some shopping centers will be subject of refurbishments,
repositioning and potential extensions, under the conditions of the fierce competition between them, as happened
with Iris Titan Bucuresti and Bucuresti Mall.
Under the conditions of the improvement in the purchasing power, supermarkets, hypermarkets and discounters will
extend their networks in Bucharest as well in regional cities. Naturally, the opening of new large shopping centers
generates the extension of retail networks, both local and international.
www.nairomania.ro
Piata spatiilor comerciale
Evolutia pozitiva viitoare a acestui segment de piata se reflecta si in asteptarile investitorilor care au achizitionat centre
comerciale in 2014. Cea mai importanta tranzactie incheiata este achizitia Promenada Mall (40.300 mp suprafata
inchiriabila) de catre fondul de investitii NEPI de la Raiffeisen Evolution pentru suma de 148 milioane de Euro.
In 2015, este prevazuta finalizarea lucrarilor de constructie la centrul comercial Mega Mall, zona Pantelimon, care va
contribui cu aproximativ 70.000 mp la stocul modern de spatii comerciale existent. Centrul comercial va fi ancorat de
Carrefour, WorldClass, C&A, H&M. In acest an vor continua lucrarile de constructie pentru centrul comercial ParkLake
Plaza (79.000 mp), dezvoltat de Caelum Development si Sonae Sierra in cartierul Titan. Printre dezvoltarile comerciale
anuntate a fi initiate sunt Victorya City, in zona Bucurestii Noi, si Dedeman, in zona Pantelimon. In perioada urmatoare
se asteapta ca piata centrelor comerciale sa inregistreze renovari, repozitionari, posibile extinderi, pe fondul cresterii
competitiei dintre acestea, asa cum s-a intamplat cu Iris Titan Bucuresti si Bucuresti Mall.
In contextul imbunatatirii puterii de cumparare, comerciantii de tip supermarket, hypermarket si discounter isi vor
extinde magazinele atat in Bucuresti, cat si in orasele regionale. In mod natural, deschiderea de noi centre comerciale
mari atrage extinderea retelelor comerciale, atat a celor locale, cat si a celor internationale.
www.nairomania.ro
Agricultural land market
Agricultural land market
Agricultural land market in Romania recorded a particular interest in 2014 coming from different categories of clients
that are confident of the potential of this market, generated by the significant differences between the prices in
Romania and those recorded in the Western Europe. The presence of important foreign investment funds as well the
sustained prospecting activity are the elements that anticipate a positive evolution in the next period.
During 2014, the offer was diversified in terms of areas and consolidation. Thus, the offer of agricultural land is
diversified comprising areas of 130 – 2.000 ha with low level of consolidation (40-50%), generally leased by local
farmers, as well plots with areas between 100-600 ha benefiting of a higher level of consolidation (70-80%), leased by
a local farmer or farmed by the owner. The offer also comprises land with very large areas (over 3.000 ha), but some
component plots do not have a clear juridical and cadastral status. This segment of the real estate market records
also acquisition and consolidation projects concerning small areas of between 0.5 ha and 3-5 ha.
Compared to 2013, the average sale prices had an increasing evolution; the medium prices of agricultural land in
2014, excluding the added value of fixed asstes, fluctuated between 1.800-2.000 Euro per hectar and 5.000-6.000
Euro per ha. The average sale prices are illustrated on the attached map based on the geographical area.
The fluctuation of prices is generated by natural and anthropical amenities that land benefit of, as well as by level of
consolidation. Important natural elements that influence the price of the land are quality of soil, pluviometric regime
of the area, proximity of surface water resources that can be used for irrigation. Technical possibilities for irrigation,
presence of storage capacities, proximity and accesibility of sale facilities for the harvest might significantly increase
the prices.
The consolidation of farm land is an important factor as there is an optimum ratio between total area and level of
consolidation so that the farm equipments and machineries are efficiently used. Thus, large vegetable crops (wheat,
corn, sun flower, soya etc) are economicaly viable on larger areas over 500 ha. Smaller plots are economicaly
adequate for horticulture and specialized harvest. A 100% consolidation is ideal, but also plots with total areas of
15-20 ha located at a maximum distance of 1 km are attractive for farmers.
The main active clients are foreign investment funds that have the financial capacity to acquire vast areas of agricultural
land and benefit of adequate market information. The prospecting market activities are mainly undertaken by foreign
companies from the United States, Great Britain, Germany, China and Middle East.
Local clients are represented by specialized companies from meat production and processing industry that invest
in grain harvest for consumption in owned farms. During the latest period, a new category of client appears on the
market, namely, small entrepreneurs in diverse business sectors that intends to acquire plots with small areas for
speculative purposes or to set micro farms and submit requests for European funds for crops, especially horticultural.
www.nairomania.ro
Piata terenurilor agricole
Piata terenurilor agricole
Piata terenurilor agricole din Romania a cunoscut un interes deosebit in 2014 din partea diferitelor categorii de clienti,
convinsi fiind de potentialul acestui segment de piata, generat de diferenta semnificativa de pret intre terenurile din
Romania si cele din Europa vestica. Prezenta fondurilor de investitii straine importante si activitatea sustinuta de
prospectare a pietei sunt elemente care prefigureaza o evolutie pozitiva in perioada urmatoare.
In 2014, oferta de terenuri agricole este diversificata din punctul de vedere al suprafetelor si gradului de comasare.
Astfel, ofertele includ terenuri cu suprafete de 130-2.000 ha cu grad de comasare redus (40%-50%), in general
arendate de catre fermierii locali, precum si loturi cu suprafete de 100-600 ha, cu grad de comasare mai ridicat
(70%-80%), lucrate de proprietar sau arendate unui fermier. Oferta cuprinde si terenuri cu suprafete foarte mari de
peste 3.000 ha, insa unele loturi componente nu au situatia cadastrala si juridica certa. Acest segment al pietei
imobiliare inregistreaza si oferta de tip proiecte de achizitie si comasare terenuri cu suprafete mici, de la 0.5 ha la
3 – 5 ha.
Comparativ cu 2013, preturile medii de vanzare au avut o evolutie ascendenta, astfel ca preturile medii ale terenurilor
agricole in 2014, fara aportul mijloacelor fixe, a variat intre 1.800-2.000 Euro per ha si 5.000-6.000 Euro per ha.
Preturile medii de vanzare sunt prezentate pentru fiecare zona geografica in harta atasata.
Variatia preturilor este generata de elementele naturale, antropice de care beneficiaza terenul, precum si de gradul
de comasare. Elementele naturale importante care influenteaza pretul sunt calitatea solului, regimul pluviometric al
zonei, proximitatea resurselor de apa de suprafata care pot fi utilizate pentru irigatii. Posibilitatile tehnice de irigare,
prezenta capacitatilor de stocare, proximitatea si accesibilitatea punctelor de vanzare pentru productia obtinuta pot
creste preturile semnificativ.
Comasarea terenurilor este foarte importanta deoarece exista un optim intre suprafata si comasare, astfel incat
utilizarea utilajelor agricole sa fie eficienta din punct de vedere economic. Astfel, culturile vegetale mari (grau,
porumb, floarea-soarelui, soia etc) sunt rentabile pe suprafete mai mari de 500 ha. Terenurile mai mici sunt rentabile
pentru horticultura si culturi specializate. O comasare de 100% este ideala, insa si loturile de 15-20 ha aflate la
distanta de maximum 1 km sunt atractive pentru fermieri.
Principalii sustinatori ai cererii sunt fondurile straine de investitii, care au capacitatea financiara sa achizitioneze
suprafete foarte intinse de terenuri, precum si informatiile de piata necesare. Cei mai activi clienti straini care
prospecteaza piata sunt companiile din Statele Unite, Marea Britanie, Germania, China si Orientul Mijlociu.
Clientii locali sunt in general companiile specializate in productia si prelucrarea carnii, care investesc in culturi agricole
de cereale pentru consum propriu la fermele detinute. In ultima perioada, pe piata a aparut o noua categorie de
clienti locali, mai precis, mici antreprenori in diverse afaceri, care achizitioneaza mici suprafete de teren in scop
speculativ sau in eventualitatea de a crea microferme si accesa fonduri europene pentru culturi, in special horticole.
www.nairomania.ro
Agricultural land market
Average sale price depending on geographical areas
2500 - 4000 EUR/ha
Botosani
Satu
Mare
Bihor
Maramures
Salaj
BistritaNasaud
4500 - 6000 EUR/ha
2500-3000 EUR/ha
1800 - 3000 EUR/ha
Iasi
3500 - 5000 EUR/ha
Cluj
Mures
Arad
2800 - 5000 EUR/ha
Suceava
Neamt
2800-5000 EUR/ha
2500 - 3000 EUR/ha
Alba
Harghita
2000 - 2800 EUR/ha
Vaslui
Bacau
2800-5000 EUR/ha
4500-6000 EUR/ha
Timis
Sibiu
Brasov
Hunedoara
Covasna
Galati
Vrancea
Buzau
Caras-Severin
1800-3000 EUR/ha
Vilcea
Gorj
Prahova
Arges
Dambovita
Ilfov
Bucharest
Mehedinti
2000-2800 EUR/ha
Doli
Olt
Giurgiu
2500-4000 EUR/ha
Braila
Tulcea
Ialomita
3500-5000 EUR/ha
Calarasi
Constanta
Teleorman
The acquisition of farm land is financed by financial resources coming from investment funds (deposits on medium
term of 10 years or longer term of 15-30 years) or individual private resources (family office) where the depositors
invest on very log term (50-100 years). Banking finance is used mainly by local purchasers.
The main reasons behind the acquisition of farm land vary based on the profile of the purchaser. Foreign investment
funds, that invest significant financial resources, aim to preserve the value of their investments, to obtain revenues
from leases or from the subvention granted by central authorities, and eventually, the speculativ profit when they
decide to dispose the property (exit).
Holding companies (family office) specialized in agricultural investment mainly aim to obtain quality soils, a high level of
consolidation, but also the natural amenities of the neighborhoods. The expected profit is moderate, the acquisitions
concluded by these investors are financed with the financial excess generated by the profit of other businesses.
Small private investors are aware of the great opportunity to invest in Romania, as the main reason for acquiring land
in Romania is the subvention, high profitability of the harvest and the speculative purpose when the dispose of the
plot is considered.
For 2015, an increasing evolution of prices is expected, considering the natural tendency towards the prices
quoted in other countries members of the European Union. However this evolution is not dependent exclusively on
the expectations of the owners, but also on the correlation between the profitability of the harvest and the level of
investments in land. An essential element for the future evolution of the agricultural land prices would be the prices
for cereals that might moderate the ascending evolution of prices.
www.nairomania.ro
Piata terenurilor agricole
Preturi medii de vanzare in functie de zonele geografice
2500 - 4000 EUR/ha
Botosani
Satu
Mare
Bihor
Maramures
Salaj
BistritaNasaud
4500 - 6000 EUR/ha
2500-3000 EUR/ha
1800 - 3000 EUR/ha
Iasi
3500 - 5000 EUR/ha
Cluj
Mures
Arad
2800 - 5000 EUR/ha
Suceava
Neamt
2800-5000 EUR/ha
2500 - 3000 EUR/ha
Alba
Harghita
2000 - 2800 EUR/ha
Vaslui
Bacau
2800-5000 EUR/ha
4500-6000 EUR/ha
Sibiu
Timis
Brasov
Hunedoara
Covasna
Galati
Vrancea
Buzau
Caras-Severin
1800-3000 EUR/ha
Vilcea
Gorj
Prahova
Arges
Dambovita
Ilfov
Bucharest
Mehedinti
2000-2800 EUR/ha
Doli
Olt
2500-4000 EUR/ha
Braila
Tulcea
Ialomita
3500-5000 EUR/ha
Calarasi
Giurgiu
Constanta
Teleorman
Achizitia de terenuri agricole se face prin resurse financiare care provin din fonduri de investitii (depuneri pe termen
mediu, 10 ani sau lung 15-30 ani) sau resurse private individuale (family office) care investesc pe termen foarte lung,
ex 50-100 ani . Finantarile bancare sunt folosite mai mult de cumparatorii locali.
Motivatiile principale pentru achizitia de teren agricol variaza in functie de profilul cumparatorului. Fondurile de investitii
straine, care investesc resurse importante financiare, urmaresc pastrarea valorii banilor in timp, arenda sau subventia
primita si apoi profitul speculativ, atunci cand hotarasc vanzarea proprietatii (exit). Societatile de tip holding (family
office) specializate in investitii agricole urmaresc in principal calitatea terenurilor, un grad mai mare de comasare, dar
si frumusetea naturala a locatiilor. Profitul asteptat este moderat, achizitiile facute de acesti investitori fiind finantate
cu excesul de resurse financiare provenite din profitul altor afaceri. Investitorii privati, de mai mici dimensiuni, inteleg
oportunitatea de a investi in Romania, principala motivatie pentru cumpararea de teren fiind subventia agricola,
profitabilitatea ridicata a culturilor si specularea ulterioara a pretului de teren.
Pentru 2015, se asteapta o crestere a preturilor de vanzare, avand in vedere tendinta naturala de convergenta a
preturilor catre nivelurile inregistrate in tarile din Uniunea Europeana, insa marja de crestere nu vadepinde doar
de asteptarile proprietarilor, ci si de corelarea profitabilitatii productiei agricole si investitiile in teren.Un element
esential pentru evolutia viitoare a preturilor terenurilor agricole va fi si pretul cerealelor, care poate tempera din ritmul
ascendent al preturilor.
www.nairomania.ro
Rentabilitatea Investitiilor
Investment Yields
Rentabilitatea Investitiilor pe piata Imobiliara din Romania / Investment Yields
Cluj, Brasov, Iasi, Timisoara
Sibiu, Craiova, Targu Mures
Ploiesti, Pitesti, Arad, Oradea
Galati, Constanta
Eur 10 - 14
Eur 8 - 12
14%
10 - 15 %
12 - 20 %
Produs premium: 7,5 - 8,5 %
Produs Premium: 8.5 - 9.5 %
9-10.5 %
Produs Secundar: 9 - 10 %
Produs Secundar: 10 - 11 %
Produs Secundar: 10 - 12 %
Comercial (centre comerciale)
Produs premium: E 40 - 60
Produs premium: E 25 - 40
Produs premium: E 15 - 25
pentru suprafete medii de 100-250 mp
Produs secundar: E 20 - 40
Produs secundar: E 15 - 25
Produs secundar: E 10 - 15
Rata de Capitalizare
Produs premium: 7,75 - 8,00 %
Produs Premium: 8,5 - 9,5 %
Produs Premium: 9,5 - 10,5 %
Industrial
Produs premium: E 3,25 - 4,25
Produs premium: E 3 - 4
Produs premium: E 3 - 3.5
pentru suprafete medii (1000-2500 mp)
Produs secundar: E 2,75 - 3, 5
Produs secundar: E 2- 3
Produs secundar: E 2 - 3
Produs premium: 9,5 - 10 %
Produs Premium: 9,5 - 10,5 %
Produs Premium: 10 - 11 %
Segment de Piata
Bucuresti
Central: E 16,5 - 18,5
Birouri
Semicentral: E 13 - 16
Periferic: E 8 - 13
Rata medie de neocupare
Rata de Capitalizare
Rata de Capitalizare
www.nairomania.ro
Aurel Vlaicu Office Building,
4 Pipera Avenue, 8th floor,
Bucharest, District 1, 014255
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