CURS

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Public Opinion
Barometer
SOCIAL AND HUMAN RESOURCES FOR REFORM IN
ROMANIA
CURS
Center for Urban and Regional Sociology
Information presented by Daniel Chindea
Public Opinion Barometer - 1998
PUBLIC OPINION BAROMETER
Social and Human Resources for Reform in Romania
Open Society Foundation has launched in 1998 a new formula for Public Opinion
Barometer under the title: Social and Human Resources for Reform in Romania. Data
collection is planned during one year on two waves. The first wave will be ended by
June, 30, 1998. The new Barometer contains three different researches for each wave
that will be finally integrated by aggregation and comparison: a research at the level of
ordinary individual on a 1200 sample in 80 localities, a research at the level of
institutional leaders in the same localities on an approximately 1000 subjects sample
and a research at the level of communities (120) by collecting information from
different fields relevant for community life.
The main themes of the new Barometer include: political options and confidence in
political parties and personalities, life quality and life standard, social and economic
policy of the government, social capital and sociability resources, human and physical
capital, life styles.
Data collection instruments have been built by a group of Ph.D. students in Sociology,
selected by contest, from three universities: Bucharest University: Ionica Berevoescu,
Bogdan Juncu, Andra Lazaroiu, Sebastian Lazaroiu, Manuela Stanculescu; Cluj
University: Dan Chiribuca, Mircea Comsa; Brasov University: Roxana Florescu ,
Narcisa Grigorescu.
Sample design was conceived by Prof. Dumitru Sandu in Esantionare si
analiza regionala. Barometrul 1998: resurse socio-umane ale reformei. The
members of the supervising committee are: prof.univ.dr. Dumitru Sandu,
prof.univ. dr. Lazar Vlasceanu, prof.univ.dr. Traian Rotariu, Calin Anastasiu,
lector Gheorghe Onut, lector Aurora Dumitrescu, conf. Dumitru Stan.
CURS-Center for Urban and Regional Sociology was elected by open bid to
carry on the first wave of the Barometer from 7 different research agencies.
Selection criteria: the quality of interviewers’ network; experience in data
collection on probabilistic samples; professionalism and confidence of the
research staff; public prestige (previous successes and failures); abiding by the
terms of reference and availability to work on June.
The results of the Barometer will be published as written reports (charts, tables,
text) through press conferences organized by each research agency. For
research results and data bases see Internet address: http://www.sorosis.ro
Program Coordinator: Ionel David
Tel (401) 659 74 27;650 63 25;2110753, Fax: (401)312 27 45
E-mail: [email protected]
Do you think things go in a right or
wrong direction in Romania?
Direction is
right
25%
DK/NA
23%
Direction is
wrong
52%
CURS
Center for Urban and Regional Sociology
How satisfied are you with the way
you live... ?
Not satisfied at
all
17%
Very satisfied
2%
Not so satisfied
46%
CURS
Center for Urban and Regional Sociology
Quite satisfied
34%
How is your life now as compared with
last year ?
38%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
38%
11%
11%
1%
Much
Better now
better now
Quite the
same
CURS
Quite
worse
Much
worse
Center for Urban and Regional Sociology
How do you think you'll live one year now ?
28%
30%
23%
24%
25%
20%
14%
15%
10%
10%
5%
0%
1%
Much
better
Quite
better
Quite the
same
Quite
worse
CURS
Much
worse
DK/NA
Center for Urban and Regional Sociology
What would you say about your
family income ?
We manage to get the
basics
43%
We can't even satisfy the
basics
31%
We have enough for a
decent living, but nothing
more
18%
We manage to buy
expensive goods by saving
money
You manage to have all we
need with no restraints
0%
7%
1%
10%
20%
CURS
30%
Center for Urban and Regional Sociology
40%
50%
How much confidence do you have in the following political personalities…?
Little/Very little
41%
Radu Vasile
39%
44%
Teodor Melescanu
36%
51%
Emil Constantinescu
39%
40%
Varujan Vosganian
16%
53%
C.Vadim Tudor
26%
50%
M.I.Quintus
Petre Roman
60%
Ion Iliescu
60%
16%
25%
28%
54%
Valeriu Tabara
14%
60%
Adrian Nastase
21%
50%
Tudor Mohora
6%
56%
Nicolae Cerveni
7%
64%
Gheorghe Funar
Victor Ciorbea
67%
Regele Mihai
66%
16%
17%
11%
63%
Ilie Verdet
Ion Diaconescu
68%
Marko Bella
67%
-80%
Much / Very much
-60%
-40%
5%
11%
6%
-20%
CURS
0%
Center for Urban and Regional Sociology
20%
40%
Suppose next Sunday elections for Parliament will take place.
What political party or alliance would you vote for?
Percentages computed from those who opt for a party
CDR
34%
PDSR
22%
USD
14%
PRM
13%
APR
48% undecided or
not-voting
7%
UDMR
6%
Other
4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
CURS
25%
30%
Center for Urban and Regional Sociology
35%
40%
Suppose next Sunday presidential elections will take
place. What candidate would you vote for?
Percentages computed from those who opt for a candidate
E.Constantinescu
40%
I.Iliescu
23%
C.V.Tudor
14%
T.Melescanu
9%
P.Roman
9%
Other candidates
51% undecided or
not-voting
5%
0%
10%
20%
CURS
30%
Center for Urban and Regional Sociology
40%
50%
Do you believe that the economic policy of
Government will have positive or negative
consequences in the next year?
Negative
consequences
41%
Positive
consequences
31%
DK
28%
CURS
Center for Urban and Regional Sociology
How fast or slow should privatization process go?
Don't know/No
answer
24%
slower than
today
7%
NEW!
as it goes today
10%
faster than
today
59%
CURS
Center for Urban and Regional Sociology
Do you think that privatization process will
finally lead to people welfare?
Don't
know/No
answer
23%
NEW!
yes
57%
no
20%
CURS
Center for Urban and Regional Sociology
To what extent do you believe that government
fairly uses the taxes you and other people pay?
Don't know/No
answer
16%
To a very great
extent
1%
To a great
extent
11%
NEW!
To a little extent
38%
To a very little
extent
34%
CURS
Center for Urban and Regional Sociology
According to your opinion, who is the one who most
benefits from privatization of large enterprises…
differences to 100% represent people with no opinion
30%
25%
20%
26%
24%
19%
15%
10%
9%
7%
5%
2%
1%
0%
s
le
le
ians
ople
rises
c
e
i
p
t
peop
i
p
r
peop
rprise
l
e
e
o
n
s
t
s
t
p
a
s
n
s
n
i
e
e
e
e
n
a
in
in
m
of the
n bus
n bus
rs for
ll Rom
s
g
a
r
i
i
e
a
e
e
n
k
r
r
g
a
o
o
f
w
Rom
mana
CURS
Center for Urban and Regional Sociology
other
Do you think that privatization process goes..
fairly, often
times
10%
Don't know/No
answer
24%
unfairly, often
times
66%
CURS
Center for Urban and Regional Sociology
NEW!
How do you think people who made a fortune
succeeded to do that, after 1989? By…
Differences to 100% represent those with no opinion
60%
NEW!
54%
50%
40%
30%
22%
20%
10%
0%
7%
breaking the relations
hard
law
working and
competence
CURS
7%
luck
2%
other way
Center for Urban and Regional Sociology
Research methodology at the level of ordinary individual
•  Sample size: 1215
•  Probabilistic, stratified, three-stage sample
•  Stratification criteria: 18 geographic areas on historical regions, residence (urbanrural), urban localities size (4 types), degree of development of rural localities (3
categories)
•  Sampling: probabilistic selection of localities (80), sampling points (voting districts,
140) and individuals. Individuals were randomly selected from the last voting lists.
•  National representativeness for 18 years and above Romanian population which is
not institutionalized , with a maximum sampling error of +/-2,8%
•  Interviews taken by door-to-door technique
•  It must be mentioned that public opinion polls do not necessary represents electoral
predictions. Those who are interested in this kind of prediction should not ignore the
large category of people who failed to opt for a party or candidate and also low
confidence in political parties.
•  Fieldwork: 3-10 June 1998.
Statistical analysis and editing:
Vladimir Cretoiu
Andra Lazaroiu
Sebastian Lazaroiu
National sampling points