baynes appliance

Stocks and Flows Approaches and Scenario Modelling Tim Baynes | Team Leader Sustainable Produc5on and Consump5on 13 September 2013 ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES Why do we want to look at physical stocks and flows? Why stocks are important? Why do we want to create a model? What are the ways you can do this? What do we mean by stocks and flows? stock flow 3 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes parameter Why look at the physical stocks and flows •  Long term physical rela5onships will s5ll hold even as technology, markets and prices change •  Conversely, costs and prices can stay the same while there’s underlying physical change which is important •  The physical limits to sustainability are the ul5mate limits BP Sta5s5cal Review of World Energy 4 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes Why look at the physical stocks and flows 140.00 90 120.00 80 70 100.00 60 80.00 50 40 60.00 30 40.00 20 20.00 10 -­‐ 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 0.00 2015 BP Sta5s5cal Review of World Energy 5 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes Crude Oil Price ($2012) Oil ConsumpLon (106 barrels/day) 100 Bathtub stocks and flows 6 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes Why stocks are important? With abundant resources, stocks determine capacity Stocks can characterise the system The iner5a of change rests on the turnover of stocks Millions Australia's Future Housing Stock 14 12 2036-­‐2046 10 2026-­‐2036 8 20162026 6 2006-­‐2016 4 1996-­‐2006 built before 1996 2 0 1996 2006 2016 2026 2036 2046 7 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes Why do the modelling? • Repor5ng • Foresight • Explora5on of scenarios • Understanding 8 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes Ways you could model – Accounts SEEA and IEA and Na5onal Water accounts are ‘models’ of the real world, data is collected (selec5vely), classified and aggregated in ways that enable understanding but precision is lost 9 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes Accounts and data are models 10 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes A note on scope and aRribuLon Baynes and Lenzen et al. Energy Policy v39 pp7298–7309 (2011)
Scope 2 Scope 1 Direct needs for urban economic ac5vity in the urban boundary Cross-­‐boundary exchange e.g. food, H2O, concrete Secondary energy 11 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes Primary Energy A note on scope and aRribuLon Baynes and Lenzen et al. Energy Policy v39 pp7298–7309 (2011)
Scope 3 Urban economic ac5vity that supplies to household demand Household direct material and energy use and indirect needs from expenditure Regional and na5onal economic ac5vity that supplies to household demand 12 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes Ways you could model -­‐ Linked Accounts •  Physical elements of the economy – the physical economy
•  A set of accounts that are connected and self-consistent
•  Deep historical databases
•  Stock dynamics
13 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes Linked Accounts 14 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes •  Linear accounting mathematics
•  Minimal system dynamics – deliberately no feedbacks
•  A hierarchy but not a tree
Linked Accounts PopulaLon Energy Supply Energy used in buildings Energy Account 15 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes Linked Accounts PopulaLon Energy needs Emissions Response ? 16 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes Linked Accounts •  All physical elements of the economy – the physical economy
•  A set of accounts that are connected & consistent
•  Stock dynamics
•  deep historical databases
Urban economic ac5vity that supplies to household demand Household direct material and energy use and indirect needs from expenditure Regional and na5onal economic ac5vity that supplies to household demand 17 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes System dynamical representaLon Local produc5on Regional produc5on of materials & energy Employment, products, construc5on Services e.g. Finance Labour Demand Compe55on for land and resources across the urban space Baynes T.M. & Wiedmann T. (2012). Current Opinion in Env. Sustainability, 4, 458-­‐464. 18 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes Examples: The “4see” framework hap://www.driversofchange.com/tag/4see/ 19 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes Examples Güneralp B. & Seto K.C. (2008) Global Environmental Change, 18, 720-­‐735. 20 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes Summary of Approaches to Modelling •  Accoun5ng allows for the most flexible treatment of raw data but this is only a retrospec5ve view – no foresight or scenarios. •  Consump5on based accoun5ng using Input Output Tables •  Linked accoun5ng is an integrated self-­‐consistent picture of the whole economy but it requires some manipula5on of data and it can miss key feedbacks e.g. investment behaviour or policy responses. •  System dynamics has all the features of linked accounts with the added realism of behavioural feedbacks but this comes at a cost: tractability. 21 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes Flows are important metrics of state but stocks are important for long-­‐term change of state. Precision for purpose, including precision of design Robust categories for the future, relevant cross linking, think about what is common across sectors and projects The trade-­‐off between realism and tractability
QuesLons? Material and Energy Flows Integrated with Stocks: MEFISTO A stocks and flows approach to scenario modelling Tim Baynes | Team Leader: Sustainable Produc5on and Consump5on 13 September 2013 ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES What is inside MEFISTO? How has it been used? Where are we going? New demand for stock (t ) Historical stock Replacement stock (t +1) Input flows (t) Output flows (t) Stock & processes Failure rate (stock, t) Discarded stock(t) Informa5on flow through variables (all variables have 5me dimension) Household size (m2) [type] Persons / household Popula5on [x, age, s] Households [x, age, type] Material intensity kg/m2 [type, material] Floor area m2 [x, age, type] Mass (tons) [x, material, type] Australian NaLonal Outlook Project •  Housing stock turnover and scenarios of dwelling size and mix •  Industry fixed capital stock turnover •  Current and ‘Step Change’ energy use and water use intensi5es Millions Australia's Future Housing Stock 14 12 2036-­‐2046 10 2026-­‐2036 8 20162026 6 2006-­‐2016 4 1996-­‐2006 built before 1996 2 0 1996 2006 2016 2026 2036 2046 28 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes Australian NaLonal Outlook -­‐ Households Floor Area Scenarios 280 260 Floor Area (m2) 240 220 200 180 160 Average floor area -­‐ limited amer 2015 Average floor space -­‐ increasing trend 140 120 100 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 29 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes 2050 2060 Australian NaLonal Outlook -­‐ Energy 25.0 250.0 20.0 200.0 15.0 150.0 10.0 100.0 5.0 50.0 0.0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0.0 2060 Appliance Energy Use Efficiency (GJ/dwelling) Water Hea5ng Energy Use Efficiency (GJ/dwelling) Cooking Energy Use Efficiency (GJ/dwelling) Space Condi5oning Energy/Floor Space (MJ/m2) 30 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes MJ/square meter GJ/dwelling Specific ResidenLal Energy IntensiLes by End Use Australian NaLonal Outlook -­‐ Energy Energy Use 3500 1200 Mining Mining-­‐future Mining-­‐step change 3000 1000 Net Energy Use (PJ/year) 2500 800 Manufacturing Manufacturing-­‐future Residen5al Manufacturing-­‐step change Construc5on Construc5on-­‐future Transport 2000 600 1500 400 1000 200 500 Transport-­‐future Residen5al-­‐future Transport-­‐step change Commercial and Services Commercial and Services-­‐future Commercial and Services-­‐future Residen5al Residen5al-­‐future Residen5al-­‐step change Residen5al-­‐step change Gas supply Gas supply-­‐future 0 0 1975 2005 2010 2015 2015 2020 2020 2025 2025 2030 2030 2035 2035 2040 2045 1975 1980 1980 1985 1985 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2010 2040 2050 2045 2050 31 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes Australian NaLonal Outlook -­‐ Water 2500 Water Use Commercial and Services Residen5al Commercial and Services-­‐future Water ConsumpLon (GL/year) 2000 Commercial and Services-­‐-­‐step change Residen5al-­‐future Residen5al 1500 1000 Residen5al-­‐future Residen5al-­‐step change Residen5al-­‐step change 500 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 32 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes 2050 2060 ValidaLon •  Scenarios defined and refined through itera5ve interac5ons with stakeholders and collaborators •  The basis of the scenario analysis is the plausibility of the scenarios and/or their purpose •  Calibra5on with history •  Sensi5vity •  Ensemble Analysis 33 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes IntegraLng with ConsumpLon Approaches Urban economic ac5vity that supplies to household demand Household direct material and energy use and indirect needs from expenditure Regional and na5onal economic ac5vity that supplies to household demand Urban economic ac5vity that supplies to household demand Household direct material and energy use and indirect needs from expenditure Regional and na5onal economic ac5vity that supplies to household demand 34 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes Where is MEFISTO going? Persons / household Popula5on [x, age, s] Household size (m2) [x, da, type] Dwellings / household Stock of dwellings Households [x, age, type] Input-­‐Output Table (subject to change in technology coefficients) Share of new dwellings (demol. rate) Dwelling share (types) Total Intensity Mul5pliers of final consump5on Flow of impacts related to residenLal buildings Direct Intensity Mul5pliers (e.g. flow intensity of Gravel, Sand, Construc5on materials, Iron and steel semi-­‐manufactures, Aluminium 35 | Capacity Building on Economic Modelling for Na5onal Strategies for Sustainable Development | Tim Baynes Flow of new dwellings Final demand (in $) for 'Residen5al building construc5on' Dwelling Construc5on Cost $ Generic – an approach that can extend to address different quesLons Scalable – could look at the regional or naLonal scales; could expand in scope Portable – could apply to other places or issues RelaLonship between model builder and model user More QuesLons? Thank you Tim Baynes Ecosystem Sciences Team Leader Sustainable Produc5on and Consump5on t +61 2 9490 8824 e [email protected] ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES