The Na`onal Clima`c Data Center: The World5s

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INTRODUCTIONS AND WORDS FROM
MY SPONSOR AND WHATNOT
2
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
The world’s largest archive of weather and climate data
•! NCDC is located in Asheville,
North Carolina
•! A place of “active retirement”
for weather data of many
types
•! Safe storage of 10,000
terabytes of climate data
–! Equal to 12 billion Kindle
books
•! Data download of 1.9
petabytes (six million Kindle
books) each day
"#$%&&'''()*+*(),--(.,/&!
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
Climate Normals
012034505!67-868*-9!:9;<-7=!>,?<-96!
Temperature Difference for 1981-2010 Normals
Minus 1971-2000 Normals
Precipitation Percentage Difference for
1981-2010 Normals Minus 1971-2000 Normals
4
Normals and Data Work Together
A “near normal” spring in Roanoke featured lots of ups and downs
NCDC Climate Monitoring Branch
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
66
About Me
•! I’m a meteorologist by training & education
•! I learned about weather systems, jet streams,
storms, tornadoes, etc.
–! Then I got into drought
–! Then I got into local climate
–! Then I got into big-picture climate
•! My meteorology background is only a tiny part of
the climate system, as we’re about to see in detail!
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
7
Some Resources
•! Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society’s
Annual State of the Climate Report:
–! http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/
•! The National Climate Assessment
–! http://globalchange.gov
•! Extreme Weather & Climate Paper:
–! Kunkel et al. (2012). Monitoring and Understanding Trends
in Extreme Storms: State of Knowledge. Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society
•! NCDC’s Data (and Climate Monitoring Branch!)
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center 8
Annual State of the Climate
•! 23rd annual State of the Climate reports. NCDC is editorial lead
•! Surveys the changing state and the behavior of the physical climate system
•! Now tracks 43 global-scale
climate indicators
•! 384 authors from 52 countries
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Monthly State of the Climate
•! Global reports
–!
–!
–!
–!
–!
Global Analysis
Upper Atmosphere
Global Snow & Ice
Global Hazards
ENSO / Teleconnections
–!
–!
–!
–!
–!
–!
–!
U.S. Analysis
Synoptic Discussion
Drought
Tornadoes (in season)
Hurricanes (in season)
U.S. Snow & Ice (in season)
Wildfires
•! U.S. Reports
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc
Some perspectives from some sources
PREAMBLE:
DO WEATHER AND CLIMATE MATTER?
11
Colon, 1959
•! “On Tuesday, July 22nd, he departed for Jamaica … the
sky, air and climate there were just the same as in other
places; every afternoon there was a rain squall that
lasted for about an hour. The admiral writes that he
attributes this to the great forests of the land; he knew
from experience that formerly this also occurred in the
Canary, Madeira and Azore Islands, but since the
removal of forests that once covered those islands they
do not have so much mist and rain as before.”
•! Biography of Christopher Columbus. Translated to
English in 1959, 465 years after July 22nd, 1494
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center 12
Homer, 900[ish] B.C.
•! As for your own end … the gods will take you to the
Elysian plain, which is at the ends of the world.
There fair-haired Rhadamanthus reigns, and men
lead an easier life than anywhere else in the world,
for in Elysium there falls not rain, nor hail, nor snow,
but Oceanus breathes ever with a West wind that
sings softly from the sea, and gives fresh life to all
men. This will happen to you because you have
married Helen, and are Jove's son-in-law.”
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center 13
Also Long Ago
•! … saying to the crowds, “When you see a cloud
rising in the west, immediately you say, ‘A shower is
coming,’ and so it turns out. And when you see a
south wind blowing, you say, ‘It will be a hot day,’
and it turns out that way. – Luke 12:55
•! “… and when it was morning, the east wind brought
the locusts.” – Exodus 10:13
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center 14
PART I:
SO, WHAT’S THE BIG PICTURE?
15
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time. Every year of 1990s
warmer than 1980s average.
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1920
1930
1940
1950
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1980
1990
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Dataset: Land Surface Temperature
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21
Globally: Temperature over Land
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
22
The Long-term Climate Signal
Kinda like the stock market!
Globally: Temperature over Oceans
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
24
Global Ocean Heat Content
(upper layers)
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
25
Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
26
Stratospheric Temperature
27
6/26/13
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
11 Indicators of a Warming World
The stratosphere (up here!) is cooling
PART II: WHAT’S THE RELATIONSHIP
BETWEEN WEATHER AND CLIMATE?
29
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Big picture Climate Extremes since 2010
•! Mar 2010: MA NJ RI
•! Apr 2010: IL NJ CT RI ME
•! May 2010: LA
•! Jun 2010: DE LA* MD NC NJ RI VA IA MI
•! Jul 2010: DE RI
•! Aug 2010: FL* LA*
•! Sep 2010: NM MN
•! Oct 2010: FL
•! Dec 2010: FL GA NV UT
•! Apr 2011: IL IN KY NY OH PA WV
•! Jun 2011: LA TX NM
•! Jul 2011: OK TX
•! Aug 2011: AZ CO FL LA NM OK TX NH NJ NY VT
•! Sep 2011: OR PA
•! Mar 2012: CONUS AR CT GA IL IN IA KS KY MI MN
MS MO NE NH NJ NY OH OK PA RI SC SD TN VT WV
WI WY CO
•! Jun 2012: CO WY FL
•! Jul 2012: CONUS VA
•! Aug 2012: NV NE WA WY
•! Sep 2012: MN MT ND SD
WARMEST COOLEST
WETTEST DRIEST
•! 1Q 2010: FL ME NH* VT*
•! Spr 2010: CT* MA* ME MI* NH* NJ* NY* RI VT*
•! 2Q 2010: CT DE LA MA ME MD NC NH NJ RI VA
•! Sum 2010: AL DE FL GA MD MS NC NJ RI SC TN VA WI
•! 3Q 2010: FL MA WI
•! 4Q 2010: NV FL
•! CY 2010: NH* RI* ND
•! Spr 2011: IN KY MT NY OH PA VT WA WV WY TX
•! 2Q 2011: OR WA TX IN KY MI OH NM
•! Sum 2011: LA NM OK TX CT NJ TX
•! 3Q 2011: NM TX MD NJ VT
•! Aut 2011: OH PA
•! 4Q 2011: MA NH RI VT
•! CY 2011: CT IN KY NJ NY OH PA
•! 1Q 2012: CONUS CT DE IA IL IN KS KY MA MI MN MO ND NH NJ NY
OH OK PA RI SD TN VA VT WI WV CT
•! Spr 2012: CONUS AL AR CO CT DE GA IA IL IN KS KY LA MA MD MI
MN MO MS NC NE NH NJ NY OH OK SC SD TN TX VA VT WI WV WY
DE
•! 2Q 2012: CO KS AR
•! Sum 2012: CO WY FL NE WY
•! 3Q 2012: NV WY MS MT NE SD
•! Aut 2012: NV
•! CY 2012: CONUS CT DE IL KS MA MO NE NH NJ NM NY OH OK RI
SD TX UT VT WY NE WY
31
Monitoring Extremes: Snow
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32
Relationship between weather & climate
Literature Review: Stallone et al. (1976)
Weather
Climate
US Climate Extremes
summer minimum temperatures
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
34
El Niño and La Niña:
Effects on the United States
Temperature
Precipitation
Strongest effects are felt in winter months
March 20122012
September
35
Climate and Extreme Weather
•! Kinda impulsive
•! Short attention span
•! Very sensitive to his
environment
•! Prone to occasional extreme
behavior, given the “right set
of ingredients”
•! Forgets quickly, “moves on”
•! Let’s call this kid weather
36
Climate and Extreme Weather
•! Still impulsive
•! Still responds mostly to his
immediate environment
•! Still spends months at a time
hanging out with his influential
friends “La Nina” and “el Nino”
•! But seems to be getting into weird
situations more often
•! The drivers of his individual days
are mostly similar
•! The trajectory of his life has
changed
37
Climate and Extreme Weather
•! This guy alternately gets
blamed for almost
everything, but hard to
prove any one thing
beyond a reasonable
doubt
•! Still can’t predict the outcome on
November 14, 2013
•! But we can surely notice trends
•! We can try to attribute today’s
behavior to “parenting”, but that is
impossibly hard to do because we
don’t get to ask “Weather”, we
only get to observe “Weather”
•! But there will be changes, even
some positives
•! People around him will choose to
ignore, adapt to, or mitigate these
changes
38
Extreme Events
•! How we detect,
count and measure
extreme events
has changed, for
each type of event,
since the mid-20th
Century.
and
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Impr ion of sm
ct
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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
Extreme Events
•! Extreme events are
borne from a set of
ingredients.
•! Tracking the
ingredients is very
useful!
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
What we can say confidently
•! Big Heat is increasing and is expected to continue
•! Big Rain is increasing as is expected to continue
•! Big Drought seems to be increasing regionally. This is
expected to continue.
•! Violent local weather: no observed increases. Active area of
research
•! Tropical cyclones: expected continued trend toward stronger
average storm. Number of TCs still active research
•! Snow and Ice: expect regional shifts. Signal is inconclusive
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
PART III: WHERE CAN I TOUCH SOME
OF THIS INFORMATION?
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Where to go for information
NCDC Home Page
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov
NOAA’s climate.gov
http://www.climate.gov
Where to go for information
NCDC Home Page
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov
Nat’l Integrated Drought Info System
http://www.drought.gov
More Specific Options
Climate Data (sets, stations)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/
Other information, incl. monitoring
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information
Monitoring: Historical Context
Monthly values, ranks and “anomalies” dating back to 1895
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag
Data Access
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YYYU3+,-.)"U10G$
www.twitter.com/NOAANCDC
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