elections `14 - Mundus International

ELECTIONS ’14 A Mundus International Journal Elections ’14 is a journal of six issues, which monitors and analyses the elections to the European Parliament and the Swedish Riksdag in 2014. The journal has been specifically developed for foreign missions. PART 5: AHEAD OF THE NATIONAL ELECTIONS September, 2014
Part 5: Ahead of the national elections
ELECTIONS ’14 A Mundus International Journal
2014 marks an important political year in Sweden with elections to the European Parliament on May 25
and the national elections being held on September 14. The series has been specifically developed as a
tool for political reporting of foreign missions and contains exclusive research and analyses.
introduction .................................................................................................................. 2 post-­‐‑election .................................................................................................................. 4 The election of a Speaker and the formation of government ........................................ 4 The budget bill .............................................................................................................. 4 government scenarios ................................................................................................. 5 the two prime ministerial candidates ...................................................................... 7 Fredrik Reinfeldt ........................................................................................................... 7 Stefan Löfven ................................................................................................................ 8 focus on ministerial posts .......................................................................................... 8 comment ...................................................................................................................... 14 appendix 1 ................................................................................................................... 15 references ..................................................................................................................... 16 “Swedish democracy is founded on the free formation of opinion and on universal and equal suffrage. It shall be realised through a representative and parliamentary polity and through local self-­‐‑government.” The Instrument of Government 1
Part 5: Ahead of the national elections
INTRODUCTION Sweden’s ‘super election year’ is nearing its end. The eventful year has shaken Sweden’s historically fairly
static political landscape: the country looks like it is heading towards being much less reliant on the bloc
policy. In May, Sweden saw the Green Party becoming Sweden’s second largest party in the European
Parliament and the Sweden Democrats and the Feminist Initiative gaining their first seats in Brussels.
Sweden’s two largest parties – the Social Democrats and the Moderates – suffered crushing defeats. It is
telling that the Social Democratic Party, which once thought of itself as the natural ruling party, officially
proclaimed that its objective is to reach above 35 per cent of the votes, a level it had previously surpassed
in 26 consecutive elections from 1921 to 2006. Now, nine political parties are competing for the seats in
the Riksdag and polls are indicating that the small parties are growing at the expense of the traditional
frontrunners – the Social Democrats and the Moderates.
Just a few months ago, the Social Democrats and the Greens were comfortably ahead in the polls. Since
then, the distance between the blocs has shrunk and now the polls indicate a close run between the
Alliance and the Red-Greens. However, the polls published late this week show dramatically different
results. In a Sifo poll, published on 5 September, the Red-Greens were supported by 45 per cent,
compared to 51.9 per cent at its peak in April. The Alliance parties together have 40.5 per cent of voter
support in this poll with the Liberal Party gaining significantly to 8.4 per cent. The Social Democrats have
27 per cent of the vote – the party’s worst result since February 2012. In this poll the Feminist Initiative
was supported by 1.8 per cent. But in a poll by Ipsos, published on 4 September, the Feminist Initiative is
rising above the vital 4 per cent threshold and the difference between the blocs is 11.2 per cent. The
Christian Democrats and the Centre Party are again on the border between staying in the Riksdag and
dropping out altogether. In a number of previous elections, tactical voting from Moderate Party voters has
helped both the Centre Party and the Christian Democrats. While on the left, both the Green Party and the
Left party have made gains. Meanwhile, the Sweden Democrats have been polling at around 10 per cent
for a few months and are looking at holding the balance of power. But polls indicate that there is still a
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large number (around 14 per cent) of voters that are uncertain of how to cast their vote next Sunday.
Hence, one week ahead of the elections, the question of the composition of the government is pivotal. The
issue is debated, scrutinised, analysed and commented upon by analysts and used by the political parties
to intimidate voters as the election campaign moves into its feverish last week. From the left comes
warnings that the Alliance will continue to reign, even it they lose the election, with the help of the Sweden
Democrats. A scenario labelled ‘blåbrun sörja’ (blue-brown slurry) by the opposition. The Alliance, on the
other hand, warns that there is no Red-Green alternative, only fragmentation and chaos: a ‘rödgrön röra’
(red-green mess). If the Sweden Democrats receives votes around 10 per cent level and consequently
retains, or even increases, its critical position, then the rigid bloc politics established by the Alliance is
history - regardless of how the other parties perform. Furthermore, Feminist Initiative may prove crucial for
Mr Löfven to govern effectively as many polls show the bloc will win an outright majority without their help.
The Alliance is questioning the cohesion of the centre-left in the election campaign and Mr Reinfeldt has
hinted that the Alliance parties may make life difficult for the Social Democrats and their potential
government coalition partners by disrupting the annual budget process later on this Autumn. This tactic
plays on the significant internal disagreements in the opposition, highlighted during this week’s party
leader debates.
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2
See Appendix 1
For more in-depth insight into the post-election processes, refer to Elections ’14 part 3
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Part 5: Ahead of the national elections
While an important lesson from the 2010 election was that opinion polls between elections are inexact
forecasts of upcoming elections, it is impossible to ignore the fact that the Reinfeldt government is in an
unfavourable situation. There is a sense that the government will fall and the money is on Stefan Löfven
becoming the next Prime Minister of Sweden. But little can be assumed about the next government – the
make-up of his partners, and therefore Mr Löfven’s cabinet, is far less certain. And a new electoral law
provides additional ambiguities that could keep Fredrik Reinfeldt in office.
In the previous editions of the Elections ’14 series, we have provided our readers with solid facts, statistics,
and analysis. Given the uncertainties, we cannot predict the outcome of the elections with any degree of
confidence. Hence, in this fifth edition of the series we take out the crystal ball and provide you with our
best guesses on how the Swedish political landscape could look in a few weeks’ time
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Part 5: Ahead of the national elections
POST-­‐‑ELECTION The election of a Speaker and the formation of government The outcome of the election determines how and if a new government will be formed. After the election the
new Riksdag meets for a roll-call on 29 September. During the meeting, the members will elect, or re-elect,
a Speaker and three Deputy Speakers. The Speaker and Deputy Speakers are elected for four-year terms.
There are no rules as to which party the Speaker is to be appointed from, however, the Speaker is usually
appointed from the largest party forming the government. The posts of Deputy Speaker are allocated to
the parties in relation to their size in the Riksdag.
The Social Democrats do not have an official candidate for the Speaker yet, but there are rumours that the
former Speaker, Björn von Sydow, and the current Deputy Speaker, Susanne Eberstein, could be potential
candidates. If Mr Löfven would like more of a political player, then Ylva Johansson, Urban Ahlin and
Thomas Eneroth are potential names. Neither of them are not strong candidates for ministerial posts.
When a new government is to be formed, the Speaker summons the leaders of all parties in the Riksdag
and the Deputy Speakers for consultations. If the Speaker is a new official, it is assumed that the retiring
Speaker will prepare for the change of government by starting discussions with the party leaders
immediately after the incumbent government has resigned, in order not to lose time. During the
consultations, the Speaker usually instructs the party leaders to collectively review the possibilities of
forming a government that will have the support of the Riksdag. The number and scope of these
discussions can vary depending on how complicated the political situation is. Currently, opinion polls
indicate a difficult parliamentary situation where neither the Alliance nor the opposition will be in majority.
This would mean a complex situation for the Speaker, and the more complex the parliamentary situation,
the more important the role of the Speaker.
The Speaker submits to the Riksdag the proposal for new Prime Minister and states at the same time
which parties will be included in the government. The Riksdag then votes on the Speaker’s proposal. This
reflects the 2011 change in the electoral law, that the Prime Minister must win a vote of confidence in the
Riksdag after each election. If more than half the total number of members of the Riksdag, (i.e. 175) vote
against the proposal, the Prime Minister is rejected. If the Speaker’s proposal for a new Prime Minister is
rejected four times, an extraordinary election must be held within three months. If the Riksdag approves
the Speaker’s proposal, the Prime Minister designate forms a government.
At the official opening of the Riksdag on 30 September, the Prime Minister delivers a Statement of
Government Policy, which presents an outline of the incoming government’s policy goals for the next year
and defines priority policy areas at national and international level. It is usually delivered at the same time
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as the Prime Minister announces the composition of the government.
The budget bill Later on in the Autumn it is time for the crucial budget bill to be submitted to the Riksdag. The Budget Bill
is normally submitted no later than 20 September, but during an election year the regulations are slightly
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different depending on the outcome of the election.
2
For more in-depth insight into the post-election processes, refer to Elections ’14 part 3
These regulations were recently amended and the time limits mentioned above are based on the new regulations adopted by the
Riksdag on 17 June and entering into force on 1 September 2014.
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Part 5: Ahead of the national elections
a) If there is no change of government, the Budget Bill must be submitted to the Riksdag no later
than two weeks after the opening of the Riksdag session. This year, the Riksdag session opens on
30 September. This means that the Budget Bill for 2015 must be submitted to the Riksdag no later
than 14 October if there is no change of government.
b) If there is a change of government after an election, the Budget Bill must be submitted no later
than three weeks from the date on which a new government takes office, but no later than 15
November. At the earliest, a new government takes office a few days after the opening of the
Riksdag session.
GOVERNMENT SCENARIOS The Social Democrats and the Green Party are seeking to form a majority government. However, at this
stage, the polls indicate that they will not manage to. Fredrik Reinfeldt has indicated that the Alliance will
only remain in power if it remains bigger than the Red-Green party group. As polls indicate that the RedGreens will be larger than the Alliance bloc, discussions about whom Stefan Löfven would form
government with, and how strong - or weak - such a government would be are intensifying. But polls also
suggest that neither the Alliance nor the Red-Green parties will have a Riksdag majority and the Sweden
Democrats could hold the balance of power. A minority government only including the Social Democrats
and the Greens would have to rely on getting both the Left Party and at least one of the current
government parties to support its proposals.
A Social Democratic/Green government would likely need to depend on the Left Party – either as part of
the government or as parliamentary support. If so, Mr Löfven would need to reply on just how willing Mr
Sjöstedt is to compromise. For a red-green government to be formed, Mr Löfven could be forced to
depend on how willing to compromise Mr Sjöstedt is: how much is he willing to sacrifice his views to
support a red-green government?
The Feminist Initiative has made a very strong climb in the polls this year and was brimming with
confidence following the party’s successful EU election. However, the party has not received as much
media attention as it did prior to the European election. Meanwhile, the Liberal Party’s Birgitta Ohlsson has
tried to hijack the feminist issue from Ms Schyman, campaigning under the slogan ‘Feminism without
Socialism’. However, this week Ms Schyman has participated in much publicised debates with Jonas
Sjöstedt and Jimmie Åkesson, which has raised the party’s media profile. On 4 September one opinion poll
gave Feminist Initiative 4 per cent, however, other polls indicate much less support. If the party makes the
Riksdag, Ms Schyman has declared that Feminist Initiative would support a Löfven-led government.
There is also speculation regarding a government across the political bloc. Stefan Löfven is seeking to
break rigid blocs and speaks fondly of agreements made across the political divide. Meanwhile, his
unwillingness to approach the Left Party is well documented. The concept of a government comprising of
the Social Democrats, the Green Party and the Liberal Party is one that has been discussed most
frequently on the editorial pages. The Social Democrats are closer to the Liberals than the Left Party on a
variety of sensitive issues, such as nuclear energy, arms exports, foreign aid policy and views on
economics, enabling cooperation across the party blocs. However, although both the Liberals and the
Centre Party, to different extents, have a history of cooperation with the Social Democrats, a decision to
leave the Alliance would not be an easy one. This scenario is unlikely at this stage, but could come on the
table as the parties in the Alliance will probably face leadership changes following an electoral defeat. The
Liberal Party is the most likely to change party leader in 2015, and such a change may facilitate
collaboration with Mr Löfven. The Liberal Party and the Centre Party can refer to taking national
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Part 5: Ahead of the national elections
responsibility and putting party egoism aside. Another possibility is that the Liberal Party and the Centre
Party waive government involvement, but vote as a bloc on important political issues.
Another factor facing either Mr Reinfeldt or Mr Löfven in September is that electoral law is changing; the
future Prime Minister must now win a vote of confidence in the Riksdag, whereas before he could stay on
unless a majority called for his resignation. Sweden also has a system of ‘negative parliamentarianism’.
Negative parliamentarianism means that a government does not need to be actively supported by a
majority of members of the Riksdag - it just requires that there not to be a majority actively voting against
it. This means that an incumbent Prime Minister has to resign only if more than half of (175 or more) all
members of the Riksdag vote against him. Abstentions can play a key role: because of the way that the
vote is constructed abstaining has the same real effect as voting yes. We could therefore see a scenario,
come October, where Mr Reinfeldt might still be in power. If, for example, the Sweden Democrats choose
to abstain the Riksdag vote, and the Alliance parties vote against a government led by Mr Löfven.
Consequently, the forecast is for a stormy Autumn in the Riksdag. Below, Mundus International outlines
some of the more likely scenarios after 14 September. But with potentially nine parties in the Riksdag,
political scientists have calculated that 512 different governments could potentially form. We will, however,
only review the four most-likely scenarios.
Scenario A:
The Social Democrats form a majority government with the Green Party and possibly the Left Party and
Feminist Initiative. Stefan Löfven could then form a strong government. He would probably form
government with just the Green Party and negotiate with the Left Party for support in the Riksdag. But he
can also make the tactical assessment that it would be wiser to let the Left Party into the government. This
would probably require some form of concession on the issue of profits in welfare.
Scenario B:
The Alliance wins the election and becomes larger than the Red-Greens but does not achieve a majority (a
situation similar to today). The alliance would try to continue to govern the country. It could, however,
prove difficult since the Sweden Democrats support is looking to grow and, with their increasing
parliamentary power, would demand influence not to topple the government. But the alternative is an early
election, which most parties will probably want to avoid.
Scenario C:
The Red-Greens win the election, are larger than the Alliance, but do not reach a majority in the Riksdag.
Then the Alliance, together with the Sweden Democrats, would be bigger than the Red-Greens. This
opens up for a few different scenarios.
•
•
•
An early election is called to try to create a sustainable majority
The Alliance acknowledges defeat and lets Stefan Löfven form government
The Alliance continues to rule with the support of the Sweden Democrats
Scenario D:
It is crucial for a minority government to get its budget passed in the Riksdag. During the previous term,
the Alliance has successfully passed budgets, despite being in minority, because the Red-Green
opposition and the Sweden Democrats have presented separate budget proposals. If they had been able
to agree on a budget, then Sweden would have faced a government crisis and early elections. The critical
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Part 5: Ahead of the national elections
moment for a Löfven-led minority government would therefore be the annual budget process in November.
If the Alliance would present a budget proposal – backed by power-hungry Sweden Democrats – then it
would be difficult to avoid calling early elections (nyval). This scenario is, however, unlikely, as it would be
problematic – and politically risky – for the Alliance to agree on a budget with the Sweden Democrats, and
early elections are rare in Sweden; the last time Sweden held such an election was more than 55 years
ago.
THE TWO PRIME MINISTERIAL CANDIDATES Voters are more and more demanding of party leaders who need to be perceived as credible prime
ministers, to have the ability to create a strong party platform, and to lead a complex organisation. In
Sweden, voters elect parties, not governments. The majority of the people vote for a party rather than the
person leading the party. However, studies have shown that more and more voters take into account the
formation of government – and the potential Prime Minister – when casting their vote. The media is playing
up ‘the duel’ between the Prime Ministerial candidates and voters are increasingly asked who they want to
lead the country. Therefore, in this election campaign, Fredrik Reinfeldt is casting himself as an
experienced statesman in turbulent times and touting his management of Sweden’s economy as he seeks
to win an unprecedented third term as Prime Minister. Stefan Löfven meanwhile is highlighting his trade
union background and proven ability to lead a big organisation. The close race has made the usually
placid Mr Löfven become more animated, directly attacking his political opponents. But despite the lead in
the polls for the Social Democrats, a clear majority continues to believe that Fredrik Reinfeldt is better than
Stefan Löfven to lead a government. According to a September opinion poll, 52 per cent see Mr Reinfeldt
as better skilled to head the government, compared to 31 per cent for Mr Löfven.
Fredrik Reinfeldt Born and bred in Stockholm, Mr Reinfeldt has had a long career in politics. He joined the Moderate Party’s
youth wing as a teenager and has a degree in Business and Economics from Stockholm University. While
he has a reputation as a serious and almost dour politician, he spends his free time being a passionate
supporter of the Djurgårdens IF football team. He has three children with his ex-wife Filippa, an active
politician in the Moderate party who has served as Health Service Commissioner of Stockholm County
since 2006.
Fredrik Reinfeldt is one of Europe's most successful centre-right leaders and continuously polls as the
most popular political leader in Sweden. Under Mr Reinfeldt’s leadership, the Moderate Party transformed
from an elitist right-wing party to a centre-right party appealing to the broad middle class. His government
has gained a reputation as one of the most potent reformers in Europe, having boosted private ownership
of public services such as schools and hospitals while cutting income tax five times. But after ten years as
party leader and seven years as Prime Minister, the wear and tear of governing has taken its toll: Mr
Reinfeldt is perceived as low on steam and lacking new ideas. But in August, the Prime Minister delivered
his now famous speech on Norrmalmstorg - where he called on the Swedish people to ‘open their hearts
for refugees’ – and proved that he is still up for a game.
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Part 5: Ahead of the national elections
Stefan Löfven In a country where politicians are moulded early on through the youth leagues and into political
appointments, Mr Löfven stands out: an orphan who became a steel worker and built a career as the
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leader of IF Metall. Sweden’s tradition of collaboration between business and trade unions has shaped Mr
Löfven and his knowledge of Swedish industry has earned his respected both on factory floors and by
business leaders. As leader of IF Metall Löfven has worked hands-on with industrial policy, saving jobs,
creating jobs and taking the controversial decisions that are necessary in a country as dependent on
exports as Sweden. He has been working closely with Swedish company owners, but he has also lobbied
internationally (helping Saab sell Gripen fighter jets) and assisted in negotiations over Ford's and GM’s
takeovers of Volvo and Saab. His extensive business contacts includes the Wallenberg family (Saab’s
largest shareholder) and when Jacob Wallenberg invited Mr Löfven to last year's meeting of the Bilderberg
Group, the closed meeting of international politicians and businessmen, it created big headlines in
Swedish media. However, before becoming party leader he had no previous political experience, let alone
as a minister. He had hardly spent any time at the Social Democratic Riksdag headquarters, and his lack
of political experience and a Riksdag seat (which means he is unable to represent his party in the Riksdag
chamber) present further challenges.
The first couple of weeks after Mr Löfven’s appointment saw the Social Democrats climb rapidly in the
polls and an excited media was quick to label the lead as ‘the Löfven-effect’. However, while the Social
Democrats’ have climbed in the polls under Mr Löfven’s leadership support is far from what the party
formerly used to enjoy. Perhaps Mr Löfven’s biggest difficulty could be in forming a workable majority.
FOCUS ON MINISTERIAL POSTS Just a week before the Parliamentary Election there are still many uncertainties about what the allocation
of power will look like. It is the task of the Prime Minister to determine the composition of the government,
which ministers are to be Heads of Ministries, and informing the Riksdag of ministers’ inclusion in the
government. It is not necessary for cabinet ministers to have a seat in the Riksdag or to be politicians, but
most ministers have usually held some sort of political office for many years and many are members of the
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Riksdag.
When appointing ministers, the Prime Minister needs to take into consideration previous government
experience, gender balance and geographical distribution of the posts. In Mr Reinfeldt´s government
women are over-represented, 13 out of the 24 cabinet ministers are women. This trend will most likely
continue after the election. Stefan Löfven recently stated that he would form a government with a high
percentage of women and also persons with a foreign background to reflect the population of Sweden.
Below, we present a variety of people that could be in the running for ministerial posts in a Social
Democratic government. We also look at up and coming people within the Alliance, and who could be in
the running to take over party leadership posts. We have not included any potential ministers from the
Sweden Democrats because both Mr Reinfeldt and Mr Löfven have stated clearly that they will not give the
Sweden Democrats any power whatsoever. This would mean that the Sweden Democrats would
essentially have the same role as the Green Party have had in the past, but the difference is that no party
had any problems, in-principle, of talking policy with the Greens.
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The main union of industrial and metal workers and one of Sweden’s most powerful unions
While they are serving in the government, however, their seats in the Riksdag are filled by substitutes from the electoral lists.
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Part 5: Ahead of the national elections
At the Foreign Ministry There are a handful of names that are being discussed for the ministerial posts at the Foreign Ministry. If
the Alliance wins the election, most agree that Carl Bildt is unchallenged on the post of Foreign Minister.
Margot Wallström, who recently made a comeback in domestic politics, looks at the moment like the
hottest tip on who would succeed Carl Bildt. She has claimed that she is not aiming for a specific portfolio,
but has said that a natural post would be Foreign Minister. Another Social Democrat who could be
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considered for Foreign Minister is Party Secretary Carin Jämtin.
For the post of Minister for International Development Cooperation, there are no obvious candidates. Most
analyst agree that the Social Democrats' foreign aid policy spokesperson, Kenneth G Forslund, has not
impressed and instead bets are on that the Green Party would get the ministerial post. If so, Mehmet
Kaplan, Bodil Ceballos and Maria Ferm have been mentioned as a possible candidates. Some
commentators have also put forward the Green Party’s MEP Peter Eriksson, Urban Ahlin, the Social
Democratic spokesperson on foreign affairs, and Jens Orback, Secretary-General at the Olof Palme
International Centre, as possible names for the post as Minister for International Development
Cooperation.
Additionally, there are not only the ministerial posts that need to be agreed upon. There are also a large
number of important posts in the government offices that need to be filled, ranging from state secretaries
to political advisors. Social Democratic names that are mentioned for these political posts include Aida
Hadzialic, Mayor of Halmstad, and Erica Sjölander, economist at IF Metall. Green Party names on the
table include the Administrative Director, Per Ängquist, and Jon Karlfeldt, member of the Green Party
executive board.
The Left Party
While the Left Party might form part of the government, this will probably be at the expense of some of its
own core issues. If Stefan Löfven invites the Left Party into a possible government the number of seats
(mandates) will be crucial for the Left Party’s chances of claiming ministerial posts. Central positions such
as Minister for Finance, Minister for Foreign Affairs, and Minister of Defence, and Minister for the
Environment will be claimed by the Social Democrats, and also by the Green Party.
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Jonas Sjöstedt - Party Leader
Mr Sjöstedt used to represent the Left Party in the European Parliament before becoming the Party
Leader. If the party is invited to form a Red-Green government, Mr Sjöstedt would be appointed to a
ministerial post.
•
Ulla Andersson - spokesperson on economic policy and deputy party leader
Ms Andersson will not be assigned the position of Finance Minister in a potential government. Within
the party Ms Andersson is one of the top names.
•
Other possible names include;
•
Rosanna Dinamarca - spokesperson on education
•
Lars Ohly - spokesperson on culture and former party leader
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Hans Linde - spokesperson on foreign policy
•
Ali Esbati - spokesperson on labour market policy
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For further reading, refer to the July 2014 edition of the Monthly Policy Review
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Part 5: Ahead of the national elections
Feminist Initiative
Feminist Initiative won 5.5 per cent of Swedish votes in the May elections to the European Parliament.
Recent polls indicate that the party may reach the 4 per cent threshold needed to get into the Riksdag. If
so, Party Leader Gudrun Schyman has said she would support a Löfven-led government. Should Mr
Löfven require the support of Feminist Initiative to govern, they would negotiate for the ministerial post of
gender equality.
•
Gudrun Schyman - party leader
Founder and leader of the Feminist Initiative. Former leader of the Left Party. Would be the
obvious name for a ministerial post with the gender equality portfolio should the Feminist Initiative
be successful in negotiations with Mr Löfven.
The Green Party
The two spokesmen of the Green Party, Gustav Fridolin and Åsa Romson will be appointed ministerial
posts. The former teacher, Mr Fridolin is a strong candidate for the Minister for Education post. Ms
Romson will most likely be the next Minister for the Environment if the Red/Green wins the Parliamentary
election. The rest will probably be up for negotiation. Depending on the distribution of seats (mandates)
one can expect that the Greens will have their say about crucial departments such as the Ministry of
Finance and the State Department. Other Ministries such as Ministry for Rural Affairs, Ministry of the
Environment and a Ministry with the energy portfolio will be of interest to the party. The Greens are tough
negotiators and one can expect that they would want at least 4-5 ministerial posts in a Social Democratic
led government.
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Gustav Fridolin - Spokesperson
A former teacher. Gustav Fridolin was the youngest Member of the Riksdag in Swedish history when
he was first elected in 2002. He has also worked as a journalist and written three books. Mr Fridolin is
hoping to secure the post of Minister for Education in a Löfven-led government, but would need to
compete with Imbrahim Baylan for the job.
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Åsa Romson - Spokesperson
Åsa Romson has a background as a lawyer and a PhD Student who taught international- and
environmental law. There is no other candidate with the same experience as Ms Romson, she is the
obvious choice to the position as Minister for Environment. Due to her gender she is also a strong
candidate for the deputy Prime Minister post.
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Per Bolund - spokesperson on economic policy
Mr Bolund is not a competitor to Magdalena Andersson (the Social Democrat´s Economic policy
spokesperson) for the role as Minister of Finance but he could certainly be a candidate for Minister for
Enterprise and Energy or Minister for Financial Market. Mr Bolund will probably be appointed to a
position in the Ministry of Finance.
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Maria Ferm - spokesperson on immigration, Legal- and IT policy
Depending on how many mandate the Greens receive, Ms Ferm could be considered a role at the
Department of Justice.
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Part 5: Ahead of the national elections
•
Mehmet Kaplan - group leader in the Riksdag and spokesperson on integration policy
Popular and powerful within the party. Closely aligned with Mr Fridolin. Mr Kaplan is also a former
chairman of the organization Sveriges Unga Muslimer (Swedish Young Muslims).
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Other possible names include;
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Karin Svensson Smith - climate- and traffic expert with long parliamentary experience and high
expertise in the area of infrastructure. She could be a candidate for the Minister for Infrastructure
position.
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Maria Wetterstrand - former Spokesperson for the Green Party. Ms Wetterstrand has left the
Riksdag but remains very popular among the voters. This week she re-appeared on the campaign
trail. Her background is similar to that of Ms Romson. She would prefer a ministerial post containing
the industry, housing or infrastructure portfolios.
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Peter Eriksson - former Spokesperson for the Green Party. Since 2014 Mr Eriksson is a member of
the European Parliament and return to in the Swedish government is unlikely.
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Lise Nordin - spokesperson on energy policy
•
Anders Wallner - party secretary
The Social Democrats
Party leader Stefan Löfven recently stated that he would chose among new and old names when he
appoints the ministerial posts. He claimed that at least 50 per cent of the posts will be assigned to women
and he will also appoint people with foreign backgrounds. During a press conference earlier this summer
Mr Löfven presented three persons who meet these requirements; Ardalan Shekarabi (party executive
committee), Aida Hadzialic (Deputy Mayor of Halmstad) and Katrin Stjernfeldt Jammeh (Mayor of Malmö).
In addition, there are speculations that Jan Larsson, Mikael Damberg and Marika Lindgren Åsbrink might
be potential ministers. These names are known within the party: Mr Larsson’s father was a speech writer
and Minister of Environment, Mr Damberg’s father was a party cash administrator and Ms Lindgren
Åsbrink’s father is a former Minister of Finance.
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Margot Wallström - former EU commissioner
At a press conference in August 2014, Stefan Löfven identified Ms Wallström as a key player in his
team. The former EU commissioner herself claims she is not aiming for a specific portfolio, but agrees
that a natural portfolio for her would be foreign policy. Despite competition for the portfolio, Ms
Wallström will most likely be the next Minister for Foreign Affairs. Her experience on both the national
and EU stage are solid and she held many key positions, such as European Commissioner for the
Environment, Minister for Consumer Affairs, and Minister for Social Affairs.
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Magdalena Andersson - spokesperson on economic policy
Mr Löfvens favourite. In 2012 Ms Andersson was appointed for Economical policy spokesperson. She
has no governmental experience but is the only true candidate for the position as Finance Minister. Ms
Andersson has a long experience from the cabinet offices.
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Mikael Damberg, group leader in the Riksdag
Mr Damberg has no ministerial experience, but on the other hand Mr Damberg has accumulated
experience and expertise and may be suitable for many different roles, probably specialising in labour
or business.
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Part 5: Ahead of the national elections
•
Carin Jämtin - party secretary
She is one of the few in the executive committee who has ministerial experience. She is a possible
candidate to the Foreign Ministry. Weighing against her is that Mr Löfven might want her to continue to
keep the party in-check as party secretary.
•
Mona Sahlin - former party leader
In 2014 Ms Sahlin was appointed the role as the government’s coordinator against violent extremism.
Until then she was a potential candidate for the position Minister for Integration.
•
Morgan Johansson - Chairman Riksdag Committee on Justice
Has ministerial experience and has already gained a clear portfolio: justice policy. Strongly supported
by the Social Democrats in Skåne. Distinct left profile.
•
Göran Persson - former party leader, Prime Minister, Minister for Finance, and Minister for Education
In August Swedish Radio claimed that Göran Persson was the top name as Foreign Minister in a
Löfven-led government. The statement was rejected by both Mr Löfven and Mr Persson, with the
former party leader and farmer stating: “If I can bring my cows into the Ministry for Foreign Affairs I will
consider the offer.
•
Ylva Johansson - social policy spokesperson and responsible for equality policy
She is a candidate to become a Minister for Health and Social Affairs. Ms Johansson is an
experienced politician and has held several central positions in previous Social Democratic
governments. That could be a disadvantage for her if Mr Löfven decides to renew and rejuvenate the
government.
•
Ibrahim Baylan - spokesperson on education
Like Ms Johansson, Mr Baylan is a experienced politician. He has held positions as Minister for
Education, party secretary and vice president in Parliamentary Committee on Education. His main rival
for the position as Minister for Education is Gustav Fridolin.
•
Veronica Palm - housing policy spokesperson and Chairman Riksdag Committee on Civil Affairs
She could be a candidate for Minister for Public Administration and Housing. Clear left profile in the
party.
•
Åsa Westlund – former MEP
The Social Democrats' strongest Environmental politicians who had success in the European
Parliament. Ms Westlund also has the profile to be able to take over Birgitta Ohlsson´s position as
Minister for EU Affairs.
•
Other possible names include;
•
Hans Dahlgren - Diplomat
•
Peter Hultqvist - MP and spokesperson on defence policy. Candidate for Defence Minister
•
Ardalan Shekarabi - party executive committee. An academic who is considered a rising star within
the party. Has participated in the party’s state secretary school.
•
Tomas Eneroth - MP. Was a possible candidate to replace Håkan Juholt as party leader in 2011.
•
Niklas Nordström - Deputy Mayor of Luleå
•
Urban Ahlin - spokesperson on foreign policy
•
Jan Larsson - election general. Has long experience from the cabinet offices.
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Part 5: Ahead of the national elections
The Liberal Party
The Liberals and their Party Leader Jan Björklund (since 2007), also deputy Prime Minister and Minister
for Education, are facing some challenges. One of the Liberal Party´s main election issues is the education
policy and many voters may associate the Liberals to that specific question. Year-after-year surveys have
shown that the Swedish school results are deteriorating and the Minister for Education must constantly
defend it´s policy. Mr Björklund´s position as a Minister for Education is now challenged by Gustav Fridolin
(The Green Party). The party suffers from low poll figures and depending on the election result, perhaps a
party leader replacement becomes necessary.
•
Birgitta Ohlsson - Minister for EU Affairs
Ms Ohlsson, a distinct Liberal, is the main candidate in the party to take over the Party leadership. The
Liberal Youth advocates her candidacy and she has strong support within the party. Ms Ohlsson is
believed to be able to get the party back on track regarding the Liberal values.
•
Cecilia Malmström - EU commissioner and former Minister for EU Affairs
Ms Malmström has opened up for a possible comeback in Swedish politics and she has strong support
within the party. However, she was recently nominated for a second term as Sweden’s EU
Commissioner and, should she be appointed, it is very unlikely that she would return to Sweden until
her term is up.
•
Other possible names include;
•
Maria Arnholm - Minister for Gender Equality
•
Erik Ullenhag - Minister for Integration
The Centre Party
The party, which for the year has polling around the 4 per threshold, is pushing to continue its political
future with focus on turning Sweden into a green, liberal and enterprise-friendly country. When the Party
Leader Annie Lööf was elected as party leader she had strong support. But so far her leadership has not
been that prosperous in domestic politics. On the other hand, the EU election, also Annie Lööf's first
election as Party Leader was successful. The Centre Party had its best result in European elections in 19
years and increased their support in 17 of 21 counties. The question is if Ms Lööf receives continued trust
after the Parliamentary Election this fall. A smaller problem is that the party seems to have a paucity of
candidates that can challenge her. One possible candidate is the Minister for Information, Technology and
Energy, Anna-Karin Hatt.
The Moderate Party
There are speculations whether or not the Prime Minister Reinfeldt will continue to lead the Moderates
after the elections in the event of an electoral defeat. It is said that people within the party have started to
position themselves for a battle of the leadership.
•
Catharina Elmsäter-Svärd - Minister for Infrastructure
Ms Elmsäter-Svärd is described as a team leader and a representative for the New Moderates. Ms
Elmsäter-Svärd is reported to have strong support among ”powerful” people in Stockholm and also
from local politicians across the country.
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Part 5: Ahead of the national elections
•
Anna Kinberg-Batra - Group leader in the Riksdag and Chairman Riksdag Committee on Finance
Ms Kinbreg-Batra has long experience in domestic politics and is a candidate for the Party Leader
position.
The Christian Democrats
The Party has suffered from low opinion polls for a long time. Some years ago Mats Odell challenged the
Party Leader Göran Hägglund on the party leadership. There were also speculations about the former
journalist, Lars Adaktusson as a possible candidate about the party leader position. Mr Adaktusson did
well in the EU elections earlier this year and is no longer a competitor. Within the party there are young
women on their way to the top.
•
Ebba Busch Thor
Municipal Commissioner in Uppsala and former deputy chairman of the party´s youth league.
•
Ella Bohlin
The party’s top name to the county council election 2014. Ms Bohlin is a former chairman of the party’s
youth league.
COMMENT This ‘super election year’ has seen a general change of the Swedish political landscape. The election to
the European Parliament and polls indicate that the traditional main parties – the Social Democrats and
the Moderates - are seriously challenged by single-issue parties such as the Greens, Feminists, and
Sweden Democrats, as new major political players. While the Alliance won an unprecedented second term
in the 2010 elections, their chances of repeating this success in the 2014 elections in September look
remote. Very few Swedish governments have succeeded in staying in power more than two consecutive
electoral periods and the centre-right has, to this point, never accomplished that. Instead, Sweden’s next
Prime Minister looks likely to be Stefan Löfven. Despite his unusual background, the return of the a Social
Democrat to the absolute power would be more of a norm – Sweden has, after all, had a Social Democrat
as Prime Minister for more than 60 of the past 80 years.
Still, it is by no means certain that Mr Löfven will succeed in forming government. In fact, come October,
Reinfeldt might still lead a government that is trying to govern, even if the Alliance has fewer seats than the
Red-Green parties. The election next Sunday will be a close call and the next couple of weeks will
therefore require political savvy, negotiation skills and a hint of bravery by the person tasked by the
Speaker to form government.
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Part 5: Ahead of the national elections
APPENDIX 1 OPINION POLL RESULTS Polling institute
Publication date
Red-Greens
Alliance
SD
Sifo
5/9/14
45
40.5
10.4
Demoskop
5/9/14
48.5
36.9
10.8
Ipsos
4/9/14
48.8
37.7
9.7
Novus
1/9/14
46.9
39.4
10.6
Novus
24/8/14
48.8
37.6
10.0
Sifo
22/8/14
48.7
38.0
10.1
Sifo
9/8/14
48.7
38.9
9.0
Novus
7/8/14
49.0
38.5
8.8
Novus
30/6/14
49.7
36.9
9.0
Ipsos
30/4/14
52.5
36.6
7.6
Sifo
14/4/14
51.1
38.6
8.3
Sifo
16/3/14
50.5
39.0
8.0
Demoskop
07/3/14
53.7
34.6
10.0
Novus
27/2/14
51.4
38.4
8.7
Sifo
16/2/14
52.8
36.0
9.5
Novus
30/1/14
51.1
36.6
11.0
Sifo
25/1/14
50.6
38.9
9.2
43.6
49.3
5.7
2010 election result
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Part 5: Ahead of the national elections
REFERENCES Aktuellt i Politiken, http://www.aip.nu
European Election Database (EED), http://www.nsd.uib.no/european_election_database/
European Voice, http://www.europeanvoice.com
Fokus, http://www.fokus.se
Government Offices of Sweden, http://www.regeringen.se
Meta Polls, http://metapolls.net
Oscarsson, Henrik, Mätningarnas Mätning, http://www.henrikoscarsson.com/p/matningarnas-matning.html
Political blogs:
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Henrik Oscarsson
Ulf Bjereld
Politometern
Makt och Politik
Andreas Heinö
Magnus Hagevi
Politologerna
Jesper Strömbäck
http://www.henrikoscarsson.com
http://ulfbjereld.blogspot.se
http://www.politometern.se
http://maktochpolitik.wordpress.com
http://andreasjohanssonheino.blogspot.se
http://hagevi.wordpress.com
http://politologerna.wordpress.com
http://jesperstromback.wordpress.com
Political parties and groups
Swedish political parties
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
The Social Democratic Party
The Moderate Party
The Green Party
The Liberal Party
The Centre Party
The Sweden Democrats
The Left Party
The Christian Democrats
The Pirate Party
Feminist Initiative
http://www.socialdemokraterna.se
http://www.moderat.se
http://www.mp.se
http://www.folkpartiet.se
http://www.centerpartiet.se
http://sverigedemokraterna.se
http://www.vansterpartiet.se
http://www.kristdemokraterna.se
http://www.piratpartiet.se
http://gamla.feministisktinitiativ.se
Poll Watch, http://pollwatch2014.eu
Riksdag & Departement, www.rod.se
Svenska Dagbladet, http://www.svd.se/
Sveriges Kommuner och Landsting, http://www.skl.se
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Part 5: Ahead of the national elections
Sveriges Riksdag, www.riksdagen.se
Sveriges Radio, Val 2014, http://sverigesradio.se
Sveriges Television, Val 2014, http://www.svt.se/nyheter/val2014/
Swedish Election Authority, Valmyndigheten, www.val.se
Valforskningsprogrammet, University of Gothenburg, http://www.valforskning.pol.gu.se
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