Presidential Approval

THE CHALLENGE OF BUILDING
PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL IN MEXICO: THE
CASE OF EPN
March, 2014
PRESENTED AT LSE’S MEXICO’S WEEK
1
Presidential Approval
March 2014
THE PUZZLES
• Why did Peña Not Enjoy a Honeymoon?
• Why Calderón Did Start with a Higher Approval
Level if He Won by a Slight Margin and Among
an Ugly Post-Electoral Conflict?
• Why Peña Is Losing Popular Support?
2
Presidential Approval
March 2014
Presidential Approval (% “Approve”). Quarterly
data
Source: Consulta Mitofsky
Zedillo
Fox
Calderón
Peña
80
% Presidential Approval
70
60
50
70
65
58
66
59
63
62
57
56
61
59
48
53
50
40
42
(NA)
Felipe Calderón
44
43
45
Enrique Peña
Vicente Fox
Ernesto Zedillo
30
31
20
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q3
Q5
3
Presidential Approval
March 2014
Presidential Approval – Felipe Calderón and
Enrique Peña
Source: Buendía & Laredo
Felipe Calderón Hinojosa
Approve
Neither approve nor disapprove
Enrique Peña Nieto
Disapprove
80
Neither approve nor disapprove
Disapprove
80
68
70
60
Approve
66
63
59
57
70
60
56
55
55
50
50
40
30
40
33
27
30
21
20
18
20
10
46
50
12
15
9
8
0
FEB 2007
MAY
13
AUG
NOV
33
34
11
10
MAY
AUG
37
44
29
20
10
14
13
10
0
FEB 2008
FEB 2013
NOV
DK/NA not shown
4
FEB 2014
Presidential Approval
March 2014
Presidential Approval - Enrique Peña Nieto
Sources: BGC, Buendía & Laredo, Consulta, GEA-ISA, Ipsos Bimsa,
Parametría and Reforma
5
Presidential Approval
March 2014
Poll of Polls – Enrique Peña
Dynamic Bayesian Measurement Model (Kalman Filter) estimated via
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Gibbs Sampler).
• Dynamic Bayesian Measurement Model (Kalman Filter)
estimated via Markov Chain Monte Carlo.
– Pooling polls to increase precision
– Estimating and adjusting for House Effects (question wording,
response categories, etc.)
– Tracking the trends and fluctuations through a dynamic model
(aka random walk)
•
•
Jackman, Simon. "Pooling the polls over an election campaign." Australian Journal of Political
Science 40.4 (2005): 499-517.
Beck, Nathaniel, Simon Jackman, and Howard Rosenthal. "Presidential approval: the case of
George W. Bush." Annual Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology, Davis, CA. 2006.
6
Presidential Approval
March 2014
Poll of Polls –Enrique Peña Nieto
Dynamic Bayesian Measurement Model (Kalman Filter) estimated via
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Gibbs Sampler).
7
Presidential Approval
March 2014
THE CHALLENGE OF
REFORMING
• Reforming Is a Tricky Business
1) The Benefits of Reform Are in the Future but Its
Costs Are Felt from the Very Beginning
2) Costs of Reform Are Usually Concentrated
among a Few but its Benefits are Dispersed among
Many
8
Presidential Approval
March 2014
THE CHALLENGE OF
REFORMING
• Take for Instance Education Reform: Teachers are
paying the costs of reform but the benefits of
reform are still to be seen. How many years until we
see any benefit?
• Further, who the beneficiaries of Education Reform
will Be: students, their parents? Will They Mobilize
to Support Reform?
• When Will People Notice that Reforms Are Being
Sucessful?
9
Presidential Approval
March 2014
THE CHALLENGE OF
REFORMING
• Public Support for Reforms Will Depend on Expectations
The real challenge is to build those expectations (NAFTA)
Will Mexicans think in inter-temporal terms, that is, will
accept the pain of reform now in exchange for a brighter
future?
THE SHORT ANSWER IS NO
10
Presidential Approval
March 2014
In your opinion, what is ___ thing Enrique Peña Nieto
has done as President so far? Open-Ended Question
[% of responses on matters related to Structural Reforms]
Source: Buendía & Laredo
The worst thing…
The best thing…
Education Reform
Energy Reform
Education Reform
Energy Reform
Fiscal Reform
All/Other
Fiscal Reform
All/Other
16
14
15
16
13
14
12
12
12
10
10
8
10
9
9
8
7
8
6
5
6
4
3
2
5
3
2
5
6
4
4
3 4
NOV
FEB 14
4
2
2
2
2
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
FEB 13
MAY
AUG
NOV
FEB 14
FEB 13
MAY
AUG
Fiscal Reform
Education Reform
Energy Reform
Fiscal Reform
Education Reform
Energy Reform
11
Presidential Approval
March 2014
In your opinion, what is the worst thing Enrique Peña
Nieto has done as President so far?
Source: Buendía & Laredo
45
40
High prices /
Inflation
Structural
Reforms
Social Policy
40
35
30
Public Security
25
Current Events
23
20
Corruption
15
10
5
Jobs and the
economy
10 11
7 7
7
8
8
NOV
FEB 14
5
0
FEB 13
MAY
AUG
12
Presidential Approval
March 2014
In your opinion, what is the best thing Enrique Peña
Nieto has done as President so far?
Source: Buendía & Laredo
40
Jobs and
Economy
35
Structural
Reforms
30
Social Policy
25
Public Security
20
15
15
imprisonment of
Elba Esther G.
15
10
8
10
Public Works
8
5
5
4
1 3
FEB 13
MAY
2 4
1 4
2
6
Pact for Mexico
0
AUG
NOV
FEB 14
13
Presidential Approval
March 2014
In your opinion, what is the best thing Enrique Peña
Nieto has done as President so far? ¿And the worst?
Source: Buendía & Laredo
Total positive responses
Total negative responses
74
63
55
48
54
47
43
38
FEB 2013
44
MAY
49
AUG
NOV
FEB 2014
14
Presidential Approval
March 2014
Imprisonment of Elba Esther Gordillo and the Pact for
Mexico
[% of responses related to both issues]
Source: Buendía & Laredo
In your opinion, what is the best thing Enrique Peña
Nieto has done as President so far?
10
10
Imprisonment of Elba Esther Gordillo
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
Pact for Mexico
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
0
0
FEB 2013
MAY
AGO
NOV
FEB 2014
0
0
FEB 2013
MAY
AGO
NOV
15
FEB 2014
Presidential Approval
March 2014
WHAT WENT WRONG?
• 1) You build expectations by denouncing the
Statu Quo.
• People will perceive the future as a better
alternative if the present is really bad.
• EPN has achieved many reforms but he does
not present himself as a reformer.
• He is not an outsider but rather works “within
the system”.
16
Presidential Approval
March 2014
WHAT WENT WRONG?
• Take energy reform: even if people are really
unhappy with Pemex’s and CFE`s efficiency the
official narrative has not emphasized it. Rather
than rejecting the statu quo the official narrative
initially embraced Lazaro Cárdenas!
• NO POSITIVE EXPECTATIONS FOR REFORM WERE
BUILT
17
Presidential Approval
March 2014
Indicators of the Consumer Confidence Index
(December 2012-February 2014)
Source: INEGI (Census Bureau)
Economic Evaluation - Country
Economic Evaluation - Household
Retrospective
Retrospective
Prospective
110
115
105
110
Prospective
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
18
FEB
JAN 2014
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN 2013
FEB
JAN 2014
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
70
FEB
70
JAN 2013
75
DEC 2012
75
DEC 2012
80
Presidential Approval
March 2014
WHAT WENT WRONG?
• 2) A Tactical Mistake: to link the reform process
to tax and price increases. People obviously
don’t believe that gas and electricity prices will
decrease in the future when the reforms have
been accompanied by important price increases
in this and other areas.
• People may be tolerant to price increases if they
are told that the current situation is untenable
(rejection of statu quo). But no one is doing that.
19
Presidential Approval
March 2014
As you may know, late last year the Energy Reform was
approved. Do you think that due to the changes to the
law the price of ____ will increase or diminish?
Source: Buendía & Laredo
Increase
Gasoline
Electrical Energy
Gas
-77
Diminish
11
-68
-73
15
14
20
Presidential Approval
March 2014
Do you associate the ____ with something
positive or negative?
(% among who know each Reform)
Source: Buendía & Laredo
Negative
Education Reform
-33
Energy Reform
Fiscal reform
Electoral Reform
Difference*
Positive
63
-57
-8
39
-69
-13
25
-49
-8
40
-11
*Difference among “Positive” november 2013
21
Presidential Approval
March 2014
WHAT WENT WRONG?
• Under the above conditions we should expect a
traditional pattern to occur: when things get bad
people will turn against the president.
Deterioration of economic conditions will lead to
loss of presidential support.
• THIS IS WHAT IT HAS HAPPENED. WE CAN EASILY
EXPLAIN PEÑA’S LOSS OF SUPPORT WITH THE
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX!
22
Presidential Approval
March 2014
Net Approval Ratings (Poll of Polls) and Consumer
Confidence Index
December 2012-February 2014
Net Approval Ratings
30
24
Consumer Confidence Index
105
22 22 23
20 19
16
18
100
16
99
100
98 97.4
95.5 95.4 95.7 95.2
10
0
0
94.1
93.3
95
91.2
-1
-6
88.7
90
89.7
-7
-10
84.584.52
85
80
23
FEB
JAN 2014
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN 2013
DEC 2012
FEB
JAN 2014
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN 2013
75
DEC 2012
-30
Presidential Approval
March 2014
Net Approval Ratings (Poll of Polls) and Consumer
Confidence Index
December 2012-February 2014
30
25
Net Approval Rating
20
15
10
5
0
y = 2.34x - 208
R² = 0.85
-5
-10
-15
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
Consumer Confidence Index
24
102
Presidential Approval
March 2014
CALDERON’S PRESIDENCY
Net Approval Ratings (Poll of Polls) and Consumer
Confidence Index
January 2007-November 2012
50
45
Net Approval Rating
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
y = 0.36x - 5.34
R² = 0.09
5
0
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Consumer Confidence Index
25
Presidential Approval
March 2014
Net Approval Ratings (Poll of Polls) and Consumer
Confidence Index
Felipe Calderón (Jan 2007-Feb 2008)
Enrique Peña (Jan 2013-Feb 2014)
50
30
y = 1.2x – 86
R² = 0.39
y = 2.3x - 208
R² = 0.85
20
Net Approval Rating
Net Approval Rating
45
25
40
35
15
10
5
0
-5
30
-10
25
-15
90
95
100
105
Consumer Confidence Index
110
80
85
90
95
100
Consumer Confidence Index
26
105
Presidential Approval
March 2014
A TALE OF TWO NARRATIVES
CALDERÓN VS PEÑA
• Why Calderón’s approval was not as sensitive to economic
conditions as Peña’s?
• 1) Peña did run on the basis of performance: efficacy. He
wanted to be seen as someone who delivers. Indeed you
can say this is a feature closely associated to many PRI
campaigns/politicians (Zedillo: “él sí sabe cómo hacerlo”).
• 2) Peña´s message as President has emphasized structural
reforms, that is, reforms designed to improve the
performance of the economy. He emphasized structural
reforms to avoid talking about security issues.
27
Presidential Approval
March 2014
A TALE OF TWO NARRATIVES
CALDERÓN VS PEÑA
• 3) Calderón on the other hand did not emphasize the
economy. And when the economy deteriorated he assigned
blame elsewhere:
International Economic Conditions, “la crisis que vino de fuera”
Congress as an obstacle to reforms to promote growth.
People may be more receptive to this argument if it comes from
a non-PRI politician as the PRI usually has had enough power to
block constitutional reforms. It was Fox after all who said: “El
presidente propone y el Congreso dispone”.
28
Presidential Approval
March 2014
CALDERON AND PUBLIC
SECURITY
• DID PUBLIC SECURITY INFLUENCE
CALDERON’S PRESIDENTIAL
APPROVAL?
29
Presidential Approval
March 2014
Net Approval Ratings (Poll of Polls) and Public
Security Perception Index
45
40
Net Approval Rating
35
30
25
20
15
10
R² = 0.1507
5
0
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
Public Security Perception Index
30
108
Presidential Approval
March 2014
A TALE OF TWO NARRATIVES
CALDERÓN VS PEÑA
• The big question then is why the deterioration of public
security conditions did not greatly affect Calderón’s
approval?
• 1) Calderon did forcefully reject the status quo: The country
could not afford looking the other away.
• 2) People blamed the PRI regime for the statu quo on drugs.
• 3) People were patient. They were aware that it would take
several years to see positive results.
• 4) Drug-related violence was framed in intertemporal
terms: “si ves que hay polvo es porque estoy limpiando la
casa”.
31
Presidential Approval
March 2014
CONCLUSIONS
• IT IS THE ECONOMY!
• IT IS THE NARRATIVE: THE MESSAGE
MATTERS!
32