Salt Lake City Tribune August 2015

Salt Lake City Tribune August 2015
Physical Ocean Conditions and Development
of the Blob
Evolution
Predictability
Climate Change Context
Jan-Mar
Jun-Sep
O
2015
Apr-Jun
Oct-Dec
Time-Depth Averages for 45-55 N, 145-135 W
Recent SLP (contours) and SST (color fill) Anomalies
Is there precedent for the recent warmth in the NEP?
1958
1997
SST Anomalies (Jun-Sep)
2014
2015
Temperature Profiles in Puget Sound July 2012 and 2015
10
11
12
13
14
40
80
120
160
2012
2015
Terms in Oceanic Mixed Layer Heat Budget (Oct-Feb)
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Advec on
-1
-2
Net Surface
Fluxes
-3
-4
Entrainment
-5
-6
Mixed Layer
Temp
Change
-7
-8
-9
Bond et al. (2015)
Observed 200 hPa Z, SST
& Precipitation Anomalies
Seager et al. (2015)
Trenberth et al. (1998)
Net Loss of Heat from Ocean to Atmosphere in Pac NW
Coastal Waters (Nov-Mar)
10
1980
-10
-30
-50
-70
-90
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2015
SLP
Anomalies
May-Sep
2014
May-Sep
2015
M. DiLorenzo and Collaborators
Unsettled Issues (Climate)

How well do we understand the source(s) of climate
variability for the winters of 2013-14, 2014-15,
2015-16? How about the summers?

How well do we understand the impacts of upperocean temperature anomalies, once formed, on
atmospheric properties downstream over the
Pacific NW?

Are SST anomalies predictable on seasonal time
scales?
Could the Blob have been
predicted?
NMME SST Anomalies
August 2013 for DJF 2013-14
DJF 2013-14 observed SST
Anomalies
18
Projected Upper Ocean Temperatures along Washington Coast
(RCP 8.5 Scenario)
17
Mean August Temperature (C)
16
15
CanESM2
14
GFDL_ESM2G
HadGEM2CC
MIROC-ESM
13
12
11
10
2005
2015
2025
2035
2045
Capotondi et al. (2012)
(Surface to 200 m)
Potential density (kg/m3)
Jet Stream Level Flow Anomalies (2015-16)
Jet (Past El Ninos)
How are the upcoming fall and
winter seasons liable to play out?
Floods – Increased chance of moderate
events
 Windstorms – More than usual (but not
for extreme events)
 Cold-air Outbreaks – Higher odds
 Fog/Air Pollution – Mixed message
 End of Season Snowpack – Probably
more than recent years
