Exame Médico da Floresta Amazônica Brasileira: Situação Atual e

Exame Médico da Floresta
Amazônica Brasileira:
Situação Atual e Ameaças
Health Check on Brazil’s Amazon Rainforest: Status and Threats
Philip M. Fearnside
National Institute for Research in Amazonia – INPA
http://philip.inpa.gov.br
Symposium on Research on the Amazon rainforests. Hamburg. 4 Mar. 2011.
Nat Geogr. map
7
Biomassa Original
Folha de S. Paulo 13/11/09 p. A-4
Ano
08
05
02
99
10
7,0
18,8
18,2
18,2
14,1
11,5
12,9
18,2
17,4
17,3
13,2
14,9
29,1
21,2
25,2
27,4
19,0
20,4
20,4
20,4
20,4
30
96
93
15
13,8
11,1
13,8
14,9
20
90
87
84
81
20,4
20,4
20,4
20,4
20,4
20,4
20,4
25
78
Taxa de desmatmento
(103 km2/ano)
Taxa anual de desmatamento
35
5
0
Desmatamento 2002/2003
Desmatamento até 2002
Fonte: INPE PRODES Digital, 2004.
Changes in vegetation biomass
between the present day and the 2080s
–8 –5 –3 –1
1
kgC/m2
3
5
8
–8 –5 –3 –1
1
3
5
8
kgC/m2
[Hadley Centre, 2000]
Cândido et al., 2007
IPCC AR4 WG2 2007. Chapter 3
IPCC 2007 AR-4, WG-I, p. 779
Cox et al. 2004
Photo by R.I. Barbosa
Cox et al. 2004
Stainforth,2005
ADAPTED FROM HEGERL ET AL., NATURE (2006)
Betts et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Huntingford et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Length of dry season
Legend:
Number of dry months
Non TF areas
0-1
1-2
2-3
3-4
4-5
5+
i
500
500
Kilometers
Kilometers
Derived from the New et al 2001 dataset
Impact of El Nino
Legend:
Multivariate ENSO index
-0.4 - -0.3
-0.3 - -0.2
-0.2 - -0.1
-0.1 - 0
Non TF areas
0 - 0.2
ii
500
550
Kilometers
Kilometers
Malhi and Wright 2004 Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical forest
regions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
Seca de 2005
Photos Greenpeace
Fig. 4 Map of linear trends in observed SST (A) and the residual SST (B)
A. T. Evan et al., Science 324, 778 -781 (2009)
Published by AAAS
Fig. 2 Time series of mixed layer response to dust and stratospheric aerosol forcing (A) and observed
SST anomalies (B)
A. T. Evan et al., Science 324, 778 -781 (2009)
Published by AAAS
These calculations suggest that 69% of the
recent upward trend in northern tropical
Atlantic SST is due to changes in aerosols.
This is especially critical because studies
have estimated a reduction in Atlantic dust
cover of 40 to 60% under a doubled carbon
dioxide climate (33), which, on the basis of
model runs with an equivalent reduction of
the mean dust forcing, could result in an
additional 0.3° to 0.4°C warming of the
northern tropical Atlantic.
Evan et al. 2009, pp. 780-781
33=Mahowald, N. M., and C. Luo (2003), A less dusty future?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17
Fig. 1 (A and B) Satellite-derived standardized anomalies for dry-season rainfall for the two
most extensive droughts of the 21st century in Amazonia.
S L Lewis et al. Science 2011;331:554-554
Published by AAAS
10km
Fotos: Richard Bierregaard
Damage and mortality of trees (%/yr)
< 0.001
4.5
4
3.5
3
1.6
2.5
2
1.5
Mortality (%/year)
Taxa de danos (%/ano)
4
3.1
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
1
0.5
0.5
0
Y = 3.64 - 0.75 log X
R=0.51, P=0.0002
100
< 300 m
> 300 m
1000
Distance to edge (m)
Nascimento and Laurance, 2004 Ecol. Appl.;
Experimentos de exclusão de chuvas – simulando el niños de longa
duração – Projetos LBA/ESECAFLOR e LBA/SECA FLORESTA
Painéis
Calhas
Suportes
Drenos
Redução de
50-60% da
precipitação
Foley et al. 2007 Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
IPCC, 2007 AR4 WG1 Ch. 10 p. 775
Cox et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
IPCC AR4 WG2 2007. SPM
IPCC, 2007 (AR-4 WG1 SPM)
Folha de S. Paulo 10/11/09, p. A-4.
http://philip.inpa.gov.br