Tropical Depression il St T il St Tropical Storm Typhoon

8/26/2011
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PAGASA
PAGASA
EYE
NESTOR B. NIMES
Weather Specialist I
Task Leader
Department of Science and Technology
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
PAGASA, DOST
Typhoon Paeng, October 24-31,2006
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THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY [PAR]
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 Tropical Depression
( Maximum winds less
than 64 KPH )
 Tropical
T
i l Storm
St
( Maximum winds 64 to
117 KPH )
 Typhoon
(Maximum winds greater
than 117 KPH )
(Super Typhoon- was conceived by JTWC with max
winds of greater than 200 kph near the center)
NAMES OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE PHILIPPINES
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
Y
Z
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
I
2001
2005
2009
2013
AURING
BISING
CRISING
DANTE
EMONG
FERIA
GORIO
HUANING
ISANG
JOLINA
KIKO
LABUYO
MARING
NANDO
ONDOY
PEPENG
QUEDAN
RAMIL
SANTI
TINO
URDUJA
VINTA
WILMA
YOLANDA
ZORAIDA
II
2002
2006
2010
2014
AGATON
BASYANG
CALOY
DOMENG
ESTER
FLORITA
GLENDA
HENRY
INDAY
JUAN
KATRING
LUIS
MILENYO
NENENG
OMPONG
PAENG
QUENNIE
REMING
SENIANG
TOMAS
USMAN
VENUS
WALDO
YAYANG
ZENY
III
2003
2007
2011
2015
AMANG
BEBENG
CHEDENG
DODONG
EGAY
FALCON
GORING
HANNA
INENG
JUANING
KABAYAN
LANDO
MINA
NIÑA
NI
ÑA
ONYOK
PEDRING
QUIEL
RAMON
SENDONG
TISOY
URSULA
VIRING
WENG
YOYOY
ZIGZAG
IV
2004
2008
2012
2016
AMBO
BUTCHOY
COSME
DINDO
ENTENG
FRANK
GENER
HELEN
IGME
JULIAN
KAREN
LAWIN
MARCE
NONOY
OFEL
PABLO
QUINTA
ROLLY
SIONY
TONYO
ULYSSES
VICKY
WARREN
YOYONG
ZOSIMO
AUXILLIARY NAMES OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
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A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
I
2001
2005
2009
2013
ALAMID
BRUNO
CONCHING
DOLOR
ERNIE
FLORANTE
GERARDO
HERNAN
ISKO
JEROME
II
2002
2006
2010
2014
AGILA
BAGWIS
CHITO
DIEGO
ELENA
FELINO
GUNDING
HARRIET
INDANG
JESSA
III
2003
2007
2011
2015
ABE
BERTO
CHARO
DADO
ESTOY
FELION
GENING
HERNAN
IRMA
JAIME
IV
2004
2008
2012
2016
ALAKDAN
BALDO
CLARA
DENCIO
ESTONG
FELIPE
GARDO
HELING
ISMAEL
JULIO
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Tropical Cyclones Tracks in the WNP
(1948-2006)
CLIMATOLOGICAL TRACKS (Quarterly)
TROPICAL CYCLONES ENTERING THE PAR
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KINDS OF HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE:
Sorsogon, Sorsogon
September 2006
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1)) STRONG WINDS
Legaspi City
September 2006
Sorsogon, Sorsogon
September 2006
2.
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4. STORM SURGE
Infanta, Quezon
Nov. 2004
Infanta, Quezon
Nov. 2004
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(DALUYONG NG BAGYO)
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3. FLOOD/FLASHFLOOD
Cagayan
Pampanga
Landslides
Sheet Flood
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Storm Surge Generation
Storm Surge Definition
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Tropical Cyclone
Storm surge is the sudden increase in
sea water level associated with the passage
of a tropical storm or typhoon. This is due to
the push of strong winds on the water surface
(wind setup), the piling up of big waves (wave
setup), pressure setup (storm central
pressure) and astronomical tide moving
towards the shore.
Source: Wikipedia
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STORM SURGE PROFILE
Storm Surge = Astronomical tide+pressure setup+wind setup+wave setup
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Example
Inundation coverage
Wind flow
Flooded area
Wave Height
Actual Surge height
High tide
Total surge
Topo-bathymetric profile
Surge Height
Low tide
Tide height
DATUM
Mean lower low water mark (MLLW)
Mean Sea Level (MSL)
Astronomical tide during occurrences
High Tide and Low Tide – Effect on surge height
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Storm Surge Occurrences
This will happen at landfall or passage
of a tropical storm or typhoon in a locality.
This
Thi might
i ht be
b ahead,
h d during
d i or following
f ll i the
th
coming of a strong or high winds of the
storm.
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1) ANGLE OF ATTACK - PERPENDICULAR ATTACK
THE RIGHT-FRONT-QUADRANT (RFQ)
3) COASTAL CONFIGURATION-SHAPE
2) FORWARD SPEED
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The forward speed of the tropical cyclone/hurricane plays a critical
role in the overall surge height;
FAST MOVING HURRICANE: (15.1mph to 35mph: 24 to 56 KPH)
The surface wind stress is increased in the right-front quadrant thus
creating a higher storm surge on the outer coast versus the storm
surge from a slow moving hurricane
hurricane.
SLOW MOVING HURRICANE: (0 mph to 15.0mph:0 to 24 KPH)
However, a slow moving hurricane may produce the opposite effect
inside of a bay, estuary or river system. This is because slow moving
hurricanes have more time to pump water into inland water bodies
than do fast moving hurricanes.
AND: There are also cases where neither rule mentioned above will
apply.
3) TYPE OF SLOPE AND SURGE EFFECT
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TYPE OF SLOPE AND SURGE EFFECT
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1) Gentle Slope
of a continental shelf
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2) Steep Slope
of a continental shelf
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Disasters due to Storm Surge
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Particularly those living in the coastal areas:
• Destroy or carry offshore houses & bancas
• Cause of death
• Coastal inundation and flooding in
the low lying areas
• Coastal erosion
-caused damage on dikes or seawalls
-buildings collapsed
Historical Surge Height Recorded
in the Philippines
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This might be as one or two-storey
10m) depending on the
building or more (3m
(3m-10m)
track, speed and sustained wind of a typhoon,
coastal configuration and bathymetry (sea
floor profile).
The seawall was heavily damaged by surge/swell in Magsaysay, Misamis Oriental
January 13, 2009
The school compound at
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Caroan, Gonzaga, Cagayan and the more than 2
hectare land area were carried away by storm surge during the occurrence of TY
Igme (2004). The height of watermark at the wall was about 2.25 m.
The seawall invaded by storm surge during TS Caloy
in San Antonio, Northern Samar last May 11-12, 2006.
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The onset of surge inundation as TS Caloy battered
the area in Northern Samar.
A portion of the barangay in Bgy. Bangan, Botolan was
heavily scoured by storm surge during T. Cosme (2008).
MONITORING
The inundation coverage of storm surge by TS Caloy.
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The totally damaged resort in Bgy. Laoag, Cabangan,Zambales
by storm surge during T. Ondoy (2009).
THE READY PROJECT
Hazard Mapping and Assessment
for Effective Community-based
Disaster Risk Management
Storm Surge/Flood Hazard Mapping in
the Philippines
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27 PROVINCES COVERED
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
2009
1. Northern Samar
2. Eastern Samar
3. Zambales
LUZON
2011
(July 2011-July 2012
Cagayan
Isabela
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Agusan del Sur
Zamboanga del Sur*
2010-2011
(July 2010-July 2011)
1. Rizal*
2. Catanduanes
3. Benguet*
4. Abra
5. Ilocos Sur*
6. Ilocos Norte
27 PROVINCES TARGET OF READY
2010 (June)
1. Antique
2. Iloilo
2012
(July 2012-July 2013)
1. Zamboanga Sibugay
VISAYAS
2008
1. Bohol
2. Aurora
3. Cavite
4. Pampanga
5. Laguna
Surigao del Sur
Surigao del Norte
Leyte
Southern Leyte
Bohol
Iloilo
Antique
Northern Samar
Eastern Samar
Pampanga
Aurora
Zambales
Ilocos Sur
Ilocos Norte
Benguet
Abra
Isabela
Cagayan
Cavite
Laguna
Rizal
Nueva Vizcaya
Catanduanes
Agusan del Sur
Agusan del Norte
Zamboanga del Sur
Zamboanga Sibuguey
2007
1. Southern Leyte
2. Leyte
MINDANAO
2006
1. Surigao del Sur
2. Surigao del Norte
3. (Dinagat Island)
 READY 1 Project – 2 provinces
 READY 2 Project – 16 provinces covered by Storm Surge
* Started the 1:10k for floods & landslide as well as Storm surge for Ilocos Sur, Tsunami EWS in ZDS started
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MAPPING METHODOLOGY
1. Storm Surge Model Simulation
Input Data:
a) Typhoon parameters from historical data:
- T. Cosme (May 14-19, 2008) & T. Norming (Aug. 20-Sept. 4, 1982)
- Radius of max.
max wind,
wind sustained wind
wind, tracks,
tracks
and wind direction and speed
b) Digitization of Bathymetric data
extracted from Nautical chart
(map) from BCGS/NAMRIA.
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SITE ((Province))
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TYPHOON RUPING (1990)
Nov. 13/10AM - landfall
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a) Courtesy call
PDOC
SUBIC
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b) Conduct interviews in the coastal areas on notable
typhoon events and surge occurrences.
2) Fieldwork:
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BGY. BANGAN, BOTOLAN
IBA
BGY. SN. MIGUEL, SN. ANTONIO
PMMA, SN. NARCISO
CANDELARIA
c) Measure the surge height and the inundation
coverage as per interview using a level instrument and a
GPS.
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PHIL NAVY, SN. NARCISO
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3. Analysis, Computation and Storm Surge
Hazard Map Development
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LEGEND:
Inundations of 1m. Surges
Inundations of >1m. to 4 m. Surges
Inundations of >4 m. to 12 m. Surges
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PROVINCIAL STORM
SURGE HAZARD MAP
1: 120,000 Scale
2) AURORA (LUZON-EAST)
1) ZAMBALES (LUZON-WEST)
LEGEND:
Inundations of 1m. Surges
Inundations of >1m. to 4 m. Surges
Inundations of >4 m. to 12 m. Surges
3) NORTHERN SAMAR (VISAYAS)
4) SURIGAO DEL NORTE
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FLOOD HAZARD MAPS:
PAGASA
ANTIQUE
BOHOL
“Disasters can be prevented and mitigated if
pp p
p
appropriate
measures are adopted.
These can be
achieved by proper understanding and preparedness
about the hazards and the threats posed by them.”
Includes municipalities of San
Jose, Sibalom and Hamtic
Includes municipalities of Jagna,
Guindolman, Anda and Candijay
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WEBSITE
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
DIAL-A-WEATHER
433--ULAN (433433
(433-8526)
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