Emerging Technology for Next Generation Electric Vehicles

e-Mobility
Global Status Update 2016
Bangkok, Thailand June 2016
Volker Blandow
Head of e-Mobility, TÜV SÜD AG
[email protected]
TÜV SÜD AG
16-06-29
Volker Blandow
Slide 1
Our mission since 150 years !
Today, TÜV SÜD stays true to its founding
principle of protecting people,
environment and property against the
adverse effects of technology.
Climate Change is may be the biggest challenge to
mankind since we startet to burn fossil fuels!
24.000 Employees
800 Locations
64 Countries
TÜV SÜD
29.06.2016
Today‘s Agenda
• WHY…
• WHY in THAILAND…
• WHAT…
• Ups…
• WE can…
TÜV SÜD AG
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Slide 3
WHY
e-Mobility?
TÜV SÜD AG
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Slide 4
…100 Million new vehicles on the planet, every 3 years!!!
1.1 Billion
vehicles are on the road globally
88 Million
will be produced in 2015 (+ 35m net growth)
401 ppm
level of CO2 concentration in May 2014
(>450 ppm level is critical, 2-3 ppm annual growth)
TÜV SÜD AG
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eCarTec 2013
Slide 5
But local emissions are also a rising problem to societies!
But CO2 is invisible!
China
India
South America
TÜV SÜD AG
14-01-22
An inconvenient trend: Global CO2 concentration in the atmosphere
Mouna Loa Hawaii 2014 data
TÜV SÜD AG
29-Jun-16
eCarTec 2013
Slide 7
The consequences on global climate change are becoming obvious...
...but the still missing link is to connect our personal lives and behaviours
to these increasingly visible consequences!
Almost no winter rain since two years!
(California, USA, 2015)
Too much rain in other regions
(Bavaria, Germany, 2016)
Number and intensity of tropical storms is increasing since 20 years!
TÜV SÜD AG
14-01-22
Japan September 2015!
Kinugawa river – heaviest ever recorded rainfalls
TÜV SÜD AG
16-06-29
Slide 9
European and German CO2 reduction schemes, following IPCC advice!
2014 Average Fleet Emissions Germany: 134g/km
100%
German Parliament: -80%-95% CO2 emissions by 2050
EU target 2050: -80% CO2 -Emissions
IPCC-Target
-20%
EU
75%
-40%
Bundesregierung
-50%
50%
EU Directive
25%
130g/km
95g/km
-80%
[60-75g/km]?
80-95% - German Budestag
[40g/km]?
1990
TÜV SÜD AG
2010
2015
2020
16-06-29
2025
2030
EU
[10g/km]?
2050
eCarTec 2013
Slide 10
International politics!
Climate change may not cause a survival thread for current societies, but for the ones to come!
TÜV SÜD AG
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Slide 11
The Paris agreement 2015 is considered to be a breakthrough…
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Slide 12
…but what does the Paris agreement really mean?
< 1.7°C
Stabilization of temperature rise of
global average
means stabilization of CO2-concentration
at current emission levels that add another
< 450 ppm
2.5 ppm/a
to an already existing concentration of
Leaves us another
20
years to get to
0 ppm
Industrialized countries have to contribute
TÜV SÜD AG
16-06-29
400 ppm
CO2 emission increase levels !
most while emerging countries should follow soon!
Slide 13
WHY
Thailand?
e-mobility in
A couple of reasons
TÜV SÜD AG
16-06-29
Slide 14
Increasingly also economic reasons become relevant. The Thai energy picture…
The energy-mix is somewhat relatively clean, but dependence on fossil energies is high!
TÜV SÜD AG
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Slide 15
Crude oil consumption – a growing thread for the Thai trade balance!
Annual oil spending @ 50$/B
18,25 Billion US$
2008 @ 100$ /B
29 Billion US$
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Slide 16
The challenge ahead! - the local sources are dwindling…
Import started already!
TÜV SÜD AG
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Slide 17
Thai electricity mix today is cleaner than most industrialised countries…
Thus even e-Mobility powered by „grid electricity“ reduces GHG emissions from transport!
TÜV SÜD AG
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Slide 18
…while renewables should improve significantly!
Share in the grid
Germany 32%
Thailand has great potential in Wind Power (sea sides), Solar (everywhere), Biomass (north east)
TÜV SÜD AG
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Slide 19
Electricity production in Thailand
TWh
No of
cars/SUV by end 2015:
15.0 Mio
Travel km/a 14,000
Require 31,5 TWh
Roughly
of additional power!
TÜV SÜD AG
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Slide 20
Another good reason for e-Mobility: New business opportunities!
•
•
•
•
•
Technical entry barriers are much lower than with conventional technologies (ICE)
Leapfrog the combustion engine!
Traditional industries have great difficulties transforming their business models
Rival us! Challenge the elephants – become the young elephant (Chang noi!)
Also big chances for supply industryies– especially electric equipment suppliers!
TÜV SÜD AG
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Slide 21
Premium segment sales in Europe, the “premium challenge”
Official statistics hide away Tesla from premium statistics (not classified as premium car!)
• Tesla Model S outperformed all premium vehicles except of the new Mercedes S-Class but Model S is
almost at similar sales levels!
• In the German premium market Tesla was not successful, while in others it gathered up to 60% of the
premium market! (Norway, Denmark, The Netherlands, Switzerland , even Austria!)
• Model X and Model 3 are also about to start in Europe, Model X availability will be limited in 2016, Tesla
focus is China and USA..
TÜV SÜD AG
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Slide 22
The whole story in one image: The beauty of simplicity!
300 HP, V6
Diesel engine
Replaced by:
380 HP electric
Motors 2x
Source:
E-Force One AG
E-Motor: Maintenance free, oil free, no moving parts, minimum 10 Years, 95% efficiency!
TÜV SÜD AG
29.06.2016
Folie 23
What
e-Mobility and markets
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Slide 24
Future transport technology and fuel options
ELECTRIC Drive Train
Battery Electric Vehicles
Biofuels
CNG / LNG (+Biogas)
Power to Gas
Power to Gasoline
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
Hybrids and Plug-in Hybrids
Hydrogen IC Engine
TÜV SÜD AG
09.12.2013
Workshop 4 Nachhaltigkeitsmanagement
Folie 25
Fuel efficiencies, same footprint, different distances…
One hectare of land can power a vehicle:
…or with PV you can power 60,000 e-Bikes 5000 km/a !
Land coverage:
33%
PV
1%
Wind
Power
Biomass
Biomass
TÜV SÜD AG
Hydrogen
Electricity
Hydrogen FCEV -> 875,000 km
Electricity BEV -> 1,500,000 km
Hydrogen
Electricity BEV -> 800,000 km
Electricity
Hydrogen FCEV -> 434,000 km
100%
100%
Hydrogen
Fuel
Hydrogen FCEV -> 110,000 km
Bioethanol -> 35,000 km
Biodiesel -> 33,000 km
Biomethane -> 80,000 km
16-06-29
Source: Blandow, TÜV SÜD, LBST
Slide 26
Electric vehicles on the road globally
• Cumulative numbers for BEV and PHEV: Sales volume increased in 2015 to more than 420k units/a!
• In other words: a little less than 50% of the global EV-Fleet hit the roads only last year!
• Thus market growth will increase significantly and PHEV are not even really present yet!
In fall 2015 total number
of EV on the road
exceeded
1 Million vehicles!
Total vehicles
on the planet :
1200 Million!
Source: ZSW (2009-2014,), TÜV SÜD 2015
TÜV SÜD AG
16-06-29
Slide 27
Market situation in Europe – Share of new vehicle registrations
Market share of EV‘s in Europe 2015 (percentage of new passenger car registrations)
• Country market shares of EV/PHEV
differ widely but even the strong
markets are still growing
• Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark
are interesting and growing fast!
• Rest of Europe has huge potential
as their total markets are way bigger!
• EU vehicle production: about 20 Mio
• 10-20% market share are 2-4 Mio
EV and PHEV (20% are roughly
necessary to meet EU emission
regulations 2020!)
TÜV SÜD AG
16-06-29
Source: CAM
Slide 28
Europe – OEMs understood the challenges high dynamics!
Three challenges have to be addressed: China, Tesla and EU Emission Regulation 2020 (and 2025!)
EV/PHEV models of European OEMs (before Dieselgate!) - About 80 new “e” models will come to market by 2020!
2015
2020
Source: Fraunhofer ISI, Produkt-Roadmap Energiespeicher für die Elektromobilität 2030
TÜV SÜD AG
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Anouncements are already much higher in June 2016!
Slide 29
In 2015/16 several new trends came up especially by German OEMs:
• Every manufacturer is now planning also for pure EV in the premium/SUV segment
(Audi (R8, Q6); VW (Phaeton); BMW X6/i5; Porsche „Mission“; Daimler „S-Class like“)
• While PHEV plans are continued complementary as foreseen!
• All manufacturers (even Ford/Opel) are going for: large batteries (>400 km range), power (>300
kW) and ultra fast charging (150 kW and 350 kW) (Porsche, Audi)
• Former „mantra“ EV is a small city car is completely „obsolete“, EV is pure performance!
(common goal <3s 0 to 100 km/h)
• PHEV options will be offered in almost every „volume segment“ like BMW 2 and 3 series, VW
Golf and Passat, Porsche Panamera, Mercedes C/E-Class, Audi A3,A4, Qx (just to mention some,
there are many more also from sub-brands like Skoda, Seat,
• Plus of course other European and Japanese OEM which are relevant in Europe (Renault,
Peugeot, Nissan, Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Tesla)
TÜV SÜD AG
16-06-29
Slide 30
Of course e-Mobility is more than cars…
And city buses, light duty trucks, delivery trucks, assisted bicycles…and so on…
TÜV SÜD AG
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Slide 31
German postal service, a very interessting story!
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Slide 32
Ups!
e-Mobility and safety
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Slide 33
We have to consider our infrastructures for e-Mobility…
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Slide 34
…and somtimes we even have to remove some beauty!
TÜV SÜD AG
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Slide 35
All countries face challenges in this, not only emerging countries!
Typical case: renovated buildings but unchanged electrical installations
Images: ZVEI
Number of housing units in Germany: 40 Million,
thereof built between 1919 and 1948: 11 Million units,
total units built before 1978: 28 Million.
36
Problem: Old power outlet sockets and not appropriate cabelings
Image: ZVEI
Image: E.ON
37
Plug overview – Charging options could be confusing…
Cordset Mode 2/ Type 2
Plug CHAdeMO / DC-Charging
TÜV SÜD AG
Plug SAE /Type 1
(USA, Japan)
Plug Type 2
(Germany and others…)
Inlet Type 1 Combo
16-06-29
China GB / T
(GB 20234)
Inlet Type 2 Combo
Slide 38
…but get better on the AC side…
JSAE 1772
IEC 62196
GB /T 20234
• Quasi compatibility – interoperable onboard cherging unit
• Selection depending on region and available grid condition (3 phase vs. Single phase)
• Car OEM globally tend to include only single phase charging units in the vehicle
TÜV SÜD AG
16-06-29
Slide 39
…while remain fragmented on DC fast charging side…
CHAdeMO
Combo 1 & Combo 2
GB / T
• No interoperability possible, different communication and safety concepts!
TÜV SÜD AG
16-06-29
Slide 40
…and gets even more complex with further options…
Home charging
Semi public charging
Wallbox (ALPIQ)
Inductive charging(Vahle, Karabag)
Battery swapping station
Public charging
New technologies – different risks
As with every energy source onboard a vehicle there is a risk in
case of system failure, abnormal environmental conditions or
external impacts like accident / crash... also with electric vehicles!
TÜV SÜD company mission since 150 years: Protect people by supporting industry to implement
the highest possible safety standards!
TÜV SÜD AG
16-06-29
Slide 42
Therefore we take things to it‘s limits…and beyond!
images: US NFPA.org
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Slide 43
WE!
TÜV SÜD e-Mobility services!
TÜV SÜD AG
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Slide 44
TÜV SÜD Offers an All Complete e-Mobility Service Portfolio!
Testing/Certification
Charging Equipment
Type Approval for
Hydrogen Filling Stations,
Fuel Cell Testing
Battery Safety; Battery Testing
Pedelec/ e-bike Testing and Certification
Type Approval, Vehicle Safety,
Functional Safety, EMC-testing
Fleet Management,
Carbon-Footprint, Periodic Inspection
TÜV SÜD AG
16-06-29
High Voltage/ Battery Saftety Trainings
Slide 45
Selcted TÜV SÜD e-Mobility projects
Homologation and
Certification of
inductive charging
systems (bus and
vehicle project e-mil)
Approval of the Hamburg „Hafen City“ hydrogen
re-filling station
Certification and consulting
services for charging
infrastructure (Singapore,
Berlin, Hamburg)
TÜV SÜD AG
European type approval
(Homologation) for the Tesla
Roadster and the Mitsubishi IMIEV
16-06-29
Homologation services BMW i8 and i3
Slide 46
Selected TUV SUD Consulting Projects
City of Berlin
•
•
•
•
City of Hamburg
Set up of 1600 charging spots
Technical specification of RFQ
Open bidding process
Evaluation of proposals
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• Support on vehicle selection (City
vehicles, database set up)
• Support on fleet charging
infrastructure (at operators site)
• Driving pattern analysis (gasoline
vehicles)
Slide 47
TUV SUD Global Battery and e-Mobility Testing Network
GERMANY
CANADA
U.S.A.
Japan
CHINA
SOUTH
KOREA
SINGAPORE
Toronto, Canada
Auburn Hills,
USA *)
Garching,
Germany *)
Shenzhen,
China
Singapore *)
Suwon,
Korea
Utsunomiya,
Japan
Complete service
portfolio for cell,
module and
system testing
Complete service
portfolio for cell,
module and
system testing
Performance,
environmental and
abuse testing on
cell and module
level – system
level in 2015
Performance and
environmental
testing on cell,
module and
system level
Performance
testing on cell,
module and
system level,
Abuse test on cell
level
Environmental and
abuse test on cell,
module and pack
level
*) ISO/IEC 17025 accredited test lab or accreditation in 2015, Issuance of CB certificate / report possible
TÜV SÜD Japan
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Slide 48
TÜV SÜD Battery Lab Germany: EV scale battery safety testing up to 800 kg
Safe,
Professional
&
Clean
Testing!
TÜV SÜD AG
16-06-29
Slide 49
TÜV SÜD Battery Testing in USA and Canada
Auburn Hills, Michigan, USA
TÜV SÜD Battery Testing
New Market, Toronto, Canada
16-06-29
Slide 50
Battery Testing Laboratory, Shenzhen, China
TÜV SÜD Japan
Pack temperature chamber
Shock Tester
Vibration machine
Performance testing
16-06-29
Slide 51
Battery Testing Laboratory, Korea
TÜV SÜD Japan
16-06-29
Slide 52
Our Biggest Asset – Our People; True Experts with Long Term Experience!
TÜV SÜD Battery Testing GmbH
16-06-29
Slide 53
Mechanical Shock Test / Crash Test – High Risk Testing in Safe Hands!
TÜV SÜD AG
16-06-29
Slide 54
Example for a test: Propagation Test – Setup
TÜV SÜD Japan
16-06-29
Slide 55
Example for a test: Propagation Test – Results: Video
TÜV SÜD Japan
16-06-29
Slide 56
Batteries are getting bigger…we are prepared!
2 x 400 kW
Battery Cyclers!
Large (and safe) chambers!
TÜV SÜD AG
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Slide 57
And we got even bigger machines to challenge batteries!
TÜV SÜD AG
16-06-29
Slide 58
Testing, Certification and Type Approva – Our one stop service!
Client: New electric vehicle!
(EV, PHEV or FCEV)
Need:
Full vehicle type approval (TUV SUD can also do full vehicle type approval! ++)
Focus:
UN ECE R100 / Rev. 2 (mandatory from July 2016)
Two options:
Vehicle based testing
All R100 related tests (e.g. electrical safety)
Full vehicle R100 type approval
++
Full vehicle type approval
++ all 48 legal acts
Component Testing
and / or
R100 component
type approval (battery)
might be used for various vehicles
(but: every vehicle needs a sperate full vehicle R100!)
We do way more than only certification - TÜV SÜD R&D – full vehicle testing
TÜV SÜD AG
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Slide 60
We also care for the batteries second life…
TÜV SÜD AG
14-01-22
Corporate Presentation
Slide 61
…and performed research and safety tests on used batteries…
•
104 Modules under investigation- all of them showed >90% remaining capacity
•
10 Modules have been tested in detail, resistance and capacity:
Quelle: EES, TUM
TÜV SÜD AG
14-01-22
Corporate Presentation
Slide 62
To facilitate further business models and best possible use of batteries
• Suitable for one specific battery type
• Plug and Play Connection / Communication
• Incl. Cooling system
• SOH check via BMS (incl. History)
• Activlely managed by special operator
• Only change complete packs (or modules)
• System should be close to vehicle
decommissionig / wrecking
• Intermediate step before recycling
• Standardised systems 20-40 packs (1-4 MW)
Grid
63
TÜV SÜD Group
One-stop testing, inspection,
certification and training.
Safety in the Transition!
Thank You!
TÜV SÜD AG
16-06-29
Slide 64
Back-Up
TÜV SÜD AG
16-06-29
Slide 65
Electric vehicles (mainly passenger cars) in Germany 2012-2015
• Too slow growth for 1 Million target 2020 – Market stimulation package expected
• Market consists almost entirely of BEV – PHEV are expected to grow significantly 2016-17!
• BAU Scenario led to < 500k vehicle in 2020 – too low for meeting EU emission regulation 2020!
Source: electrive.net, TÜV SÜD e-mobility Dashboard
TÜV SÜD AG
16-06-29
Slide 66
China EV and PHEV market is outperforming all other markets since Oct. 2015
•
•
•
•
Currently sales are up to >30k units per month, 130k in 2015 is expected to grow to 300k-400k in 2017
Except of Tesla no Western/ European brand plays a role in the top 20 e-vehicle charts!
China is using e-Mobility as one key element of their growth stimulus package in the next 5 years!
Nobody predicted the timeframe correct – it just happened, almost “over night”!
2014 Sales
35,000
2015 Sales
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Jan.
Feb.
Mrz.
Apr.
May
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Source: Timer Auto, Monthly Market Performance of Domestic New Energy Vehicles
Foreign OEMs must act, not to lose market share in China – currently no appropriate EV for China!
TÜV SÜD AG
16-06-29
Slide 67
TUV Global Battery Testing Lab-Equipment – Always State of the Art!
Resistor Bank 70kA
100t Crush
TÜV SÜD Battery Testing GmbH
10m Drop Tower
Nail Actor
Slide 68
Battery Testing Services – from Pre-Evaluation to…
Battery (Cell) Pre-Evaluation
Aim:
• Evaluate different cell types on safety,
performance and on conformity of specs
• Pre-testing of various cell types by our inhouse
evaluation scheme – in colaboration with the
customer
• Evaluation of a wider range of cell types and
suppliers.
• Decrease the number of options before entering
into expensive life cycle testing
TÜV SÜD Battery Testing GmbH
16-06-29
Company presentation, March 2014
Slide 69
…Design Review…
Module, Pack, System design review
Aim:
• In deep system design review with focus on
safety and compliance to international
standards e.g. for later system certification or
type approval of REES (R100 and others)
• Design review consulting
• System testing e.g. on thermal behavior and
system safety performance
• Indication of „stressed areas“
• System failor analyses (also post mortem)
• Efficient development process with safety
aspects and certification aspects considered
right from the beginning. Major re-design issues
only in the beginning
• Pre-certification before design freeze
TÜV SÜD Battery Testing GmbH
16-06-29
Company presentation, March 2014
Slide 70
…to Post Mortem Analysis! (Cell / Module / System)
Special Services
• Learn from abused batteries
• Failure and outage events
• Proof internal failure behavior
• Post mortem alnalysis from failed battery
systems and modules
• Dissassembly of complete packs and modules
for failure analysis and identification of critical
spots
• Design optimization, inherent failure tolerance
levels,
• Identification of critical set ups and how to avoid
them
TÜV SÜD Battery Testing GmbH
16-06-29
Company presentation, March 2014
Slide 71