lawton-ft. sill/comanche co. outlook

L AWTO N-FT. SIL L /COMA NCHE CO. OUTLO O K
2015
The Lawton-area economy continues to stabilize and
rebound from recent Federal cutbacks in the region.
Local recovery remains uneven, but the region has now
posted consecutive years of moderate growth in jobs,
wages, and retail activity. Private sector job gains will
support local growth in 2015 as the recovery broadens.
LAWTON-FT. SILL/COMANCHE CO. OUTLOOK
Mark C. Snead, President & Economist
[email protected] • (800) 762-0570
MARK C. SNEAD, PH.D.
President - RegionTrack, Inc.
Mark C. Snead is an economist and president of RegionTrack Inc., an Oklahoma City-based economic research
firm specializing in regional economic forecasting and analysis.
Mark’s research interests focus primarily on regional economic modeling and forecasting, local area economic
development, and the economic role of the nation’s energy-producing regions. Mark presents frequently to a range
of business, financial, and policy audiences and has published numerous research articles and reports on regional
economic issues. His research has been widely cited by policy officials, other researchers, and leading media outlets.
Prior to founding RegionTrack, Mr. Snead served as vice president and Denver branch executive of the Federal
Reserve Bank of Kansas City where he served as the Reserve Bank’s regional economist and lead officer in the states
of Colorado, Wyoming and northern New Mexico.
Prior to joining the Federal Reserve, Mark was with Oklahoma State University where he was the founding director of
OSU’s Center for Applied Economic Research.
Mark is a native of Atlanta, Georgia, and holds a B.B.A. in Economics from the University of Georgia, a Master’s
degree in Economics and Finance from the Georgia Institute of Technology, and a Ph.D. in Economics from Oklahoma State University. He is married with two daughters.
LinkedIn profile: http://www.linkedin.com/in/mcsnead/
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CURRENT CONDITIONS
The Lawton area economy continues to rebound from
recent Federal job cuts. The current expansion began
in the second half of 2012 and has produced moderate
but slowly accelerating gains in hiring, wages, and retail
activity. In 2014, steady hiring growth in the private
service-providing sectors was offset by continued weakness
in government hiring and a pullback in construction and
manufacturing payrolls. Our 2015 outlook suggests a
third consecutive year of steady but uneven growth as
the Lawton region transitions to a new growth trend.
Most areas of the Lawton economy should remain
stable or strengthen further in 2015.
sharply in both the second and third quarters of 2014
which suggests solid hiring momentum moving into 2015.
The expected 2014 job gain reaches 0.7% measured from
the fourth quarter of 2013 to the fourth quarter of 2014.
EMPLOYMENT SURVEYS SUGGEST
MODERATE JOB GROWTH, BUT
DIFFER ON THE PACE OF GAINS.
The two major employment surveys shown in Figures 1
and 2 suggest rising nonfarm employment in the Lawton
area since the current job expansion began in mid-year
2012. However, the two surveys differ on the pace of
growth in the period.
While conflicting data between the two surveys is not
uncommon, the stronger QCEW survey is generally
considered the more comprehensive and reliable of the
two. Its increased accuracy, however, comes with a tradeoff
in terms of timeliness. Current QCEW data extends only
through September 2014 while CES data extends through
January 2015. CES data is also revised over time, or
benchmarked, to reflect the behavior of the more
reliable QCEW data.
The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
(QCEW) survey shows tremendous volatility in hiring
since the recent bottom in 2012, but it also suggests
a 3.0% total job gain (1,200 jobs) through September
2014 (see Figure 1). On a year-over-year basis, job
growth based on the QCEW survey is expected to come
in approximately flat for 2014 due primarily to weakness
in the first quarter of the year. Job growth rebounded
The QCEW survey is also believed to be much more
descriptive of overall activity in the Lawton area
economy since early 2012. This same pattern of
volatile growth is present in both the wage and retail
sales data for the region since 2012. On balance, the
job surveys suggest that Lawton has managed to add
net new jobs in both 2013 and 2014 despite extreme
economic volatility in the period.
in both the second and third
suggests solid hiring momentum
Figure 1. Civilian Nonfarm Wage & Salary Employment
%
Comanche County, OK / Lawton, MSA
In contrast, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey
suggests only a slight uptrend in employment with about
300 jobs added from mid-year 2012 through January
2015 (see Figures 1 and 2). The gains in the CES survey
in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2014 are also much
smaller than in the QCEW survey. The CES survey further
reports a steep job decline in the 4th quarter of 2014.
Figure 2. Civilian Nonfarm Wage & Salary Employment Growth
measured from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the fourth
47,000
10%
45,000
In contrast, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey
6%
about
43,000
na
41,000
due
ob
ird
39,000
Comanche County, OK / Lawton, MSA
9.3%
8%
2%
CES Survey
QCEW Survey
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
the
job
15
QCEW survey is generally
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
4.0%
3.6%
4%
2.5%
1.6% 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5%
0.5%
Q1
Q2
Q3
CES Survey
QCEW Survey
Q4
Q1
2013
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2014
Q2
2015
Forecast
-4.0%
5.9%
Q3
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Q4
THE TWO EMPLOYMENT SURVEYS
SUGGEST A MUCH DIFFERENT HIRING
OUTLOOK FOR THE REGION IN 2015.
The hiring outlook for 2015 is significantly stronger
based on the steeper uptrend in the more reliable
QCEW data (see Figures 1 and 2). Our 2015 forecast
based on QCEW data is for job gains averaging about
1.5% through 2015. In contrast, forecasts using the more
slowly rising CES series suggest job growth of only roughly
0.5% through 2015.
Supportive of the uptrend in the QCEW job data is the
steady decline in the Lawton jobless rate from 6.7% in
early 2013 to only 4.5% in early 2015 (see Figure 3).
The number of unemployed workers declined by one-third
from about 3,300 in mid-year 2013 to about 2,200 in
early 2015. Our outlook suggests that the jobless rate
will slowly move closer to 4% throughout 2015, but further
progress will come only slowly given that the region is
approaching its historical floor in the jobless rate.
The gap between the Lawton and state jobless rates
also closed considerably in 2014. The gap is expected
to converge further in 2015 as the state jobless rate
rises slightly on slowing activity in the oil and gas sector.
MODERATE EXPANSION IN RETAIL
REFLECTS THE PACE OF THE OVERALL
ECONOMIC EXPANSION.
Lawton retail sales rebounded to a solid 3.2% gain for
2014. This followed relatively flat but slightly stronger
growth in both 2012 and 2013 (see Figure 4). The
2014 gain was slightly below our forecast of 4.1% growth.
floor in the jobless rate.
Figure 3. Unemployment Rate (%)
State of Oklahoma and Lawton, OK MSA
8
7
6
5
Lawton MSA
Oklahoma
4
3
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
15
Figure 4. Taxable Retail Sales Growth
City of Lawton, OK
6%
5%
5.6%
4.5%
4.2%
4.7%
4%
3.2%
3.2% 3.1%
3%
2%
0.9%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
0.1%
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
0.6%
12
13
14
15
-1.9%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 5. Largest Oklahoma Retail Markets (2014)
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
City
Chickasha
Owasso
Duncan
Ardmore
Broken Arrow
Edmond
Ponca City
Sand Springs
Oklahoma City
Ada
Norman
Durant
Stillwater
Tulsa
Lawton
12-mo Total 12-mo
Dec-14
%chg
298,441,364 12.9%
744,246,653 9.6%
440,817,998 7.8%
575,934,130 6.4%
1,274,486,530 6.0%
1,668,323,015 5.6%
400,444,859 5.6%
307,257,742 4.6%
10,972,558,512 4.6%
381,235,331 4.5%
1,860,159,152 4.4%
335,748,358 4.3%
844,051,072 3.5%
7,570,062,848 3.4%
1,111,746,240 3.2%
Rank
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
City
McAlester
Sapulpa
Altus
Yukon
Muskogee
Moore
Tahlequah
Bartlesville
Elk City
Claremore
Woodward
Midwest City
Enid
El Reno
Shawnee
12-mo Total
Dec-14
390,922,592
300,572,030
255,120,988
474,327,132
599,100,744
813,646,071
282,043,987
561,917,987
422,660,392
365,069,935
375,398,770
843,626,429
890,042,142
234,392,268
576,081,057
12-mo
%chg
3.0%
2.8%
2.7%
2.5%
2.2%
1.7%
1.4%
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.2%
-0.1%
-1.0%
-1.4%
-2.1%
Oklahoma Tax Commission; RegionTrack Oklahoma Retail Outlook
Lawton’s 2014 gain ranks 15th among the 30 largest city
retail markets in Oklahoma (see Figure 5). Lawton retail
growth trailed the 5.2% growth rate posted statewide and
the 4.6% gain in the Oklahoma City metro area, but
roughly matched the 3.4% gain in the Tulsa metro area.
Among neighboring cities, retail growth reached 12.9%
in Chickasha, 7.8% in Duncan, and 2.7% in Altus in the
twelve months through December 2104. Lawton retail
sales are currently running at a $1.1 billion annualized
rate, which ranks the city as the 6th largest retail market
in the state.
Our outlook for taxable retail sales in 2015 suggests
further moderate growth of 3.1% in 2015. Further
acceleration is unlikely until employment growth enters
a steady uptrend and the region fully stabilizes from
recent Federal job cuts.
BANK DEPOSITS REBOUND.
Deposits at local banking institutions show a similar
moderate rebound in 2014 relative to 2013. After
falling -3.8% in 2013, deposits bounced back to a
1.9% gain in 2014. We expect local bank deposits to
continue to expand by 2.1% in 2015 as population
and job growth stabilizes further, reaching an all-time
high of $1.388 billion in 2015.
Figure 6. Comanche Co. Bank Deposits
$ Millions
1,600
1,388
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
Figure 7. Growth in Wage and Salary Income
Source: FDIC
State of Oklahoma and Lawton, OK MSA
10%
WAGE GROWTH HAS STABILIZED BUT
AT LEVELS BELOW THE REGION’S
LONG-RUN TREND.
Growth in total wages earned in the region has stabilized
in the 2.5-3.0% range (see Figure 7). Wage growth is
expected to reach 2.8% in 2014, a slight increase over
the 2.4% gain posted in 2013. For comparison, total
wages increased 3.8% annually in the decade between
2005 and 2014.
8%
7.9%
Oklahoma
Lawton
6%
4.1%
4%
3.9%
2%
0%
-2%
2.4%
1.5%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-0.4%
2013
6.7%
2.8%
2014
2015
-4%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Local wage growth is exceeding the pace of inflation but
has trailed state wage growth since 2011 (see Figure 7).
We expect some acceleration in 2015 to 6.7% total wage
growth. The expected bounce reflects both a recovery in
employment and continued increases in wages earned per
worker (see Figure 8). Wages earned per worker remains
in a steady uptrend in Lawton, averaging 3.0% growth
across all employment groups in the decade between
2005 and 2014.
employment groups in the decade between 2005 and 2014.
Figure 8. Annual Wage and Salary Income per Worker
Gains have been strongest in the high-paying Federal
civilian and private goods-producing sectors. Average
annual wages in 2015 are expected to reach an estimated
$62,000 per Federal civilian worker, and $58,000 per
20,000
Lawton, OK MSA
70,000
Federal Civilian
Private Goods
State & Local Govt.
Total
Private Services
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
10,000
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
10
12
14
Lawton, OK MSA
100
95
90
PROPRIETOR EMPLOYMENT HAS
RESUMED GROWTH BUT ESTABLISHMENT
GROWTH CONTINUES TO STABILIZE.
85
80
75
70
65
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Maintaining business formation will be critical for the
Lawton region as it moves further along in its current
growth phase. Two key measures of business formation –
the number of proprietors and the number of business
establishments – suggest that much progress has been
made but considerable work remains.
14
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
has
al
ge
ed
er
Slight weakness is expected in Federal civilian hiring,
while the number of military personnel is forecasted to
drift upward slightly.
Figure 9. Share of U.S. per Capita Personal Income (%)
Figure 10. Federal Civilian and Military Employment
Lawton, OK MSA
35,000
Federal Civilian
Military
25,000
15,000
5,000
-5,000 70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
15
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
private goods-producing worker. These are well above
the estimates of $38,350 earned per worker across all
industries and roughly double the $29,300 earned by
workers in the private service-providing sectors.
The region is also managing to maintain much of the
gains made in per capita income relative to the nation
from 2000 to 2010 (see Figure 9). Income in the region
peaked at 92% of the national average in 2010, up from
only 70% in 2000. The share slowly declined back to
about 85% of the nation following the recent Federal
cutbacks but remains well above recent lows. Lawton has
traditionally posted a low income share relative to the
nation due to the high share of military personnel in the
region. This has changed in recent years as military
compensation has increased substantially.
In total, the Lawton area currently has about 16,600
Federal civilian and military jobs, down from more than
25,000 as recently as 1987. Our outlook is for total
Federal jobs to remain flat again in 2015 (see Figure 10).
The number of business proprietors (which includes
sole proprietorships, partnerships, and tax-exempt
cooperatives) in the region bottomed in 2012 and has
increased at a roughly 2% annual pace since (see Figure
11). This is a critical measure of self-employment in the
Lawton economy, and our outlook is for continued growth
in the number of proprietors at a 2.1% pace through
2015. Nonfarm proprietors will provide nearly all of the
expected growth with the number of farm proprietors
remaining flat.
Growth in the number of Lawton business establishments
- the number of physical business locations operated in
the area - has remained weak and trailed behind the state
since 2012 (see Figure 12). The number of establishments
stabilized throughout 2013 and 2014, and we expect a
modest uptrend in the number of establishments to
resume throughout 2015.
Figure 11. Number of Farm and Nonfarm Proprietors
Lawton, OK MSA
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
Nonfarm proprietors
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Farm proprietors
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
10
12
14
Figure 12. Number of Business Establishments
State of Oklahoma and Lawton, OK MSA
120,000
108,000
Oklahoma
Lawton MSA
3,000
2,700
96,000
2,400
84,000
2,100
72,000
1,800
60,000
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
1,500
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
LAWTON’S EMPLOYMENT BASE
CONTINUES TO DIVERSIFY.
Lawton has come a long way from the 50%+ share of
Federal employment in the region during much of the
1970s. In our 2015 outlook, the Lawton area will reach
70,200 total jobs, with Federal jobs comprising only
23.9% of the total. The estimate of total jobs is based
on the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) definition of
total jobs which includes wage and salary workers and
proprietors as well as civilian and military employees.
A breakdown of total jobs in Lawton by major category
from 1970 to 2015 is shown in Figure 13. The share of
jobs within each major category is shown in Figure 14.
The projected job base in 2015 will include 43,420
private sector jobs (61.8%), 10,025 state and local
government workers (14.3%), and 16,760 Federal
government (civilian and military) employees (23.9%).
The role played by Federal employment in the region
continues to diminish over the longer term. Declining
Federal employment has been offset primarily by
hiring growth in the private sector and in state and
local government. More than 75% of all Lawton area
jobs will be outside the Federal government sector in 2015.
Private sector job growth has been remarkably steady
and strong since 1970, despite regular fluctuations in
the Federal sector. Lawton private sector job growth
averaged 1.7% annually from 1970 to 2014 and 1.1%
annually from 1995 to 2014. State and local government
payrolls have grown slightly faster than private sector
employment, posting 2.5% annual growth from 1970
to 2014 and 1.5% annual growth from 1995 to 2014.
Declining Federal civilian employment has played a
much smaller role in the diversification of Lawton’s
labor force than cuts in military personnel. Federal
civilian employment was down -0.6% annually from
1970 to 2014, but down only -0.1% annually between
1995 and 2014. In comparison, military employment
declined at a -1.5% average annual rate from 1970 to
2014 and a -0.7% annual rate between 1995 and 2014.
Figure 13. Total Employment by Major Source
Lawton, OK MSA
80,000
Private
70,000
State/Local Govt.
Military
80
95
Federal Civilian
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
70
75
85
90
00
05
10
15
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 14. Total Employment Share by Major Source
Lawton, OK MSA
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Private
70
75
State/Local Govt.
80
85
90
Military
95
Federal Civilian
00
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
05
10
15
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF
FUTURE FEDERAL CUTS.
Ongoing discussions to downsize most major
U.S. military installations suggest that the Federal
government sector is unlikely to serve as a reliable
source of economic growth in Lawton going forward.
It also serves as the greatest risk factor to the Lawton
outlook for 2015 and beyond.
Prospective cuts at Ft. Sill are part of broader cutbacks
planned by the Defense Department in the coming
decade. Locally, the cuts reportedly could reach as
high as 6,800 military personnel and 800 civilian
workers locally. Without adjusting for potential spillover
effects to the broader economy, cuts of this magnitude
would shift the Federal share of employment to below
15% and raise the private sector share of employment
to about 69%. State and local government would
comprise the remaining 16% of total local employment.
This would reflect the smallest role played by the Federal
government in the local Lawton area economy in the
modern era of the city.
Cuts in Federal employment of this size are not new
to Ft. Sill. For example, personnel cuts roughly twice
this size occurred in the Vietnam era between 1969
and 1972. Federal employment declined from about
59.1% of total employment to 46.9% in the period.
However, growth in Lawton’s private sector economy
was not stifled. Private sector employment expanded
by more than 6% during the three-year period of the cuts.
More recently, a cut of similar size took place between
1985 and 1991. Federal employment declined from
about 41.7% of total employment to only 33.7% in the
period. Comanche County population declined by nearly
10,000 residents. Private sector job formation slowed in
the six-year period, but total private employment managed
to increase by 4.5%.
Most recently, a personnel reduction roughly half
the size of the proposed cuts took place between
2001 and 2005. The Federal share of all local jobs
declined sharply by 4.4% to only 23.7% of total local
jobs. Comanche County population declined by 4,000
residents. Private sector jobs nonetheless managed to
increase by a healthy 5.5% in the four-year period.
n
s
e.
0
t
r
al
e
al
al
e
a
Figure 15. Population (Census estimates thru 2014)
Lawton, OK MSA
135,000
130,000
Lawton population has similarly shown softness since
2012, but stabilization is taking hold (see Figure 15).
Recent Census estimates suggest that Lawton metropolitan
area population declined by -1.3% in 2013 but slipped
only slightly by -0.1% in 2014. Total Lawton metro area
population is now 131,183.
125,000
120,000
115,000
110,000
105,000
100,000
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
15
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 16. Growth in FHFA All Transactions Housing Price
State of Oklahoma and Lawton, OK MSA
10.0%
7.3%
7.5%
5.0%
8.5% 9.3%
2.9%
2.4%
2.5%
Oklahoma
Lawton
1.6%
0.6% 1.0%
0.0%
-0.6%
-2.5%
-5.0%
POPULATION ESTIMATES REFLECT
LOCAL ECONOMIC VOLATILITY BUT
CONTINUED LONG-RUN GROWTH.
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-1.4%
-0.7% -1.2%
12
13
14
Our outlook is for local population to resume its upward
trend again in 2015, increasing by an estimated 0.9%.
For comparison, metro area population growth has
increased 0.7% annually from 2005 to 2014, the ten
most recent years of Census estimates.
The overall uncertainty surrounding the economic trend
in the region and recent weakness in population growth
have weighed on Lawton area housing prices (see Figure
16). Single-family home prices weakened in 2011 and
fell for a fourth consecutive year in 2014. Prices are
down cumulatively about 3.5% since the peak in early
2011.
Because the future path for home prices is closely tied to
the path of population growth, we do not anticipate a
resumption in housing price growth until at least one
year of strong population gains are recorded. This would
likely push a rebound in housing prices back to at least
2016.
ACCELERATED PRIVATE SECTOR
JOB GAINS EXPECTED IN 2015.
Our hiring outlook suggests that meaningful private sector
job growth will return to Lawton this year. This is critical to
a broader recovery taking hold in the region.
Our model-based outlook for 2015 is for a 2.1% increase
(900 jobs) in total private employment (see Table 2). This is
slightly faster than the pace of jobs gains already underway in the second half of 2014. Most of the job growth is
expected in the private services sector, which should be
offset in part by continued hiring weakness on the
goods-producing side (see Figure 17).
Our outlook calls a for a 3.1% gain in service-providing
employment, with gains expected across all major
sub-sectors (see Table 2). The largest number of net new
jobs are expected in professional and business services
(420 jobs), leisure and hospitality (160 jobs), and health
services (50 jobs). Retail and wholesale trade were among
the strongest sectors in the earliest stages of the current
recovery in 2013 and 2014 but both are expected to
stabilize with only small gains in 2015.
Hiring in the goods-producing sectors weakened in 2011
to only a 0.1% gain and has not regained momentum
through the end of 2014. Job losses reached -0.4% in
2012 and -1.5% in 2013. Our current estimate is for a
-3.1% loss for all of 2014, due largely to an extended
pullback in construction hiring and soft factory hiring.
Our 2015 outlook calls for a further -1.0% decline in
goods-producing employment in 2015, with construction
stabilizing slightly below current levels and manufacturing
hiring continuing the weakness that surfaced in mid-year
2014.
Figure 17. Private Nonfarm Employment by Major Group
Lawton, OK MSA
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
Private Services
Goods
10,000
5,000
0
1,750
1,250
90
95
00
05
10
15
Private Services
Goods
750
250
-250
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
-750
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Table 1. Economic Indicators - Lawton/Comanche County, Oklahoma
Economic Indicator
% change at annual rate
2010
Wage & Salary Employment (QCEW)
43,258
% change
0.4%
Total Employment (BEA)
69,037
% change
3.0%
Proprietor Employment
9,340
% change
-0.2%
Military Employment
14,212
% change
15.6%
Farm Employment
1,108
% change
-1.7%
LAUS - Unemployment Rate (%)
6.4
% change
22.4%
LAUS - Labor Force
49,038
% change
3.0%
LAUS - Number Unemployed
3,128
% change
25.9%
LAUS - Employment
45,912
% change
1.7%
Establishments
2,550
% change
2.3%
Employees per Establishment
17.0
% change
-1.8%
Personal Income ($Mil)
4,537
% change
7.1%
Real Personal Income ($Mil)
2,080
% change
5.4%
Per Capita Personal Income (PCPI)
36,165
% change
7.7%
Real Per Capita Personal Income
16,582
% change
6.0%
Share of Oklahoma PCPI (%)
100.7
% change
4.0%
90.7
Share of U.S. PCPI (%)
% change
4.7%
Wage & Salary Income ($Thou)
1,488
% change
3.9%
Wage & Salary Income per Worker
34,392
% change
3.4%
Gross Domestic Product ($Mil)
5,020
% change
8.8%
Real Gross Domestic Product (2005 $)
4,348
%Change
6.7%
GDP per Worker
116,057
%Change
8.3%
2010
2011
2012
2013
Q1
42,766
-1.1%
67,291
-2.5%
9,196
-1.5%
13,178
-7.3%
1,095
-1.2%
6.4
0.6%
47,996
-2.1%
3,078
-1.6%
44,918
-2.2%
2,545
-0.2%
16.8
-1.0%
4,684
3.2%
2,082
0.1%
37,156
2.7%
16,519
-0.4%
95.3
-5.4%
89.6
-1.3%
1,510
1.5%
35,293
2.6%
5,122
2.0%
4,305
-1.0%
119,772
3.2%
42,235
-1.2%
65,928
-2.0%
9,184
-0.1%
12,222
-7.3%
1,117
2.0%
6.6
3.2%
48,108
0.2%
3,185
3.5%
44,924
0.0%
2,560
0.6%
16.5
-1.8%
4,692
0.2%
2,041
-2.0%
37,075
-0.2%
16,125
-2.4%
89.6
-6.0%
87.0
-2.8%
1,503
-0.4%
35,574
0.8%
5,176
1.0%
4,490
4.3%
122,543
2.3%
43,180
2.2%
67,018
1.7%
9,347
1.8%
12,293
0.6%
1,107
-0.9%
6.6
-0.7%
47,831
-0.6%
3,144
-1.3%
44,689
-0.5%
2,527
-1.3%
17.1
3.6%
4,754
1.3%
2,034
-0.3%
38,053
2.6%
16,279
1.0%
90.9
1.5%
86.5
-0.6%
1,539
2.4%
35,648
0.2%
5,404
4.4%
4,646
3.5%
125,158
2.1%
42,667
-5.9%
68,040
2.2%
9,476
2.1%
12,430
1.8%
1,094
-0.7%
5.9
-24.8%
47,002
-3.7%
2,788
-28.3%
44,214
-2.0%
2,512
-5.2%
17.0
-0.8%
4,820
2.6%
2,038
0.6%
38,720
2.8%
16,369
0.8%
91.0
-2.6%
85.9
-2.1%
1,550
3.4%
36,323
9.5%
5,523
6.7%
4,707
4.9%
129,435
12.8%
2011
2012
2013
Q1
2014e
Q2
Q3
42,934
2.5%
68,421
2.2%
9,522
1.9%
12,483
1.7%
1,094
0.0%
5.5
-29.9%
46,382
-5.3%
2,545
-34.9%
43,829
-3.5%
2,517
0.8%
17.1
1.6%
4,863
3.5%
2,046
1.7%
39,030
3.2%
16,423
1.3%
90.9
-0.5%
85.8
-0.7%
1,577
7.0%
36,731
4.5%
5,561
2.8%
4,720
1.1%
129,523
0.3%
43,361
4.0%
68,828
2.4%
9,569
2.0%
12,531
1.5%
1,095
0.4%
5.3
-12.0%
46,234
-1.3%
2,461
-13.2%
43,779
-0.5%
2,518
0.2%
17.2
3.9%
4,919
4.6%
2,061
2.9%
39,392
3.7%
16,503
2.0%
90.9
0.3%
85.7
-0.4%
1,583
1.5%
36,517
-2.3%
5,571
0.8%
4,711
-0.8%
128,490
-3.2%
2014e
Q2
Q3
Q4
2014e
Q1f
43,532
1.6%
69,242
2.4%
9,617
2.0%
12,576
1.4%
1,098
1.1%
4.9
-34.9%
46,102
-1.1%
2,240
-35.9%
43,862
0.8%
2,528
1.6%
17.2
0.0%
4,987
5.5%
2,080
3.8%
39,850
4.7%
16,622
2.9%
91.1
0.6%
85.9
0.8%
1,622
9.9%
37,268
8.2%
5,711
10.0%
4,810
8.4%
131,193
8.4%
43,124
-0.1%
68,633
2.4%
9,546
2.1%
12,505
1.7%
1,095
-1.1%
5.4
-17.8%
46,430
-2.9%
2,509
-20.2%
43,921
-1.7%
2,519
-0.3%
17.1
0.2%
4,897
3.0%
2,056
1.1%
39,248
3.1%
16,479
1.2%
91.0
0.1%
85.8
-0.8%
1,583
2.8%
36,710
3.0%
5,592
3.5%
4,737
2.0%
129,660
3.6%
43,746
2.0%
69,647
2.3%
9,669
2.2%
12,617
1.3%
1,101
1.1%
4.7
-12.5%
46,080
-0.2%
2,170
-12.5%
43,910
0.4%
2,536
1.3%
17.3
0.7%
5,063
6.1%
2,101
4.1%
40,368
5.2%
16,756
3.2%
91.3
1.1%
86.2
1.5%
1,644
5.4%
37,578
3.3%
5,764
3.7%
4,830
1.7%
131,760
1.7%
Q4e
2014e
Q1f
2015f
Q2f
Q3f
43,923
1.6%
70,035
2.2%
9,722
2.2%
12,655
1.2%
1,104
1.1%
4.6
-10.1%
46,096
0.1%
2,116
-10.0%
43,980
0.6%
2,545
1.4%
17.3
0.1%
5,141
6.1%
2,124
4.2%
40,893
5.2%
16,894
3.3%
92.5
4.9%
86.5
1.5%
1,676
7.8%
38,155
6.1%
5,868
7.2%
4,896
5.4%
133,599
5.6%
44,104
1.6%
70,406
2.1%
9,774
2.1%
12,691
1.1%
1,107
1.1%
4.5
-8.1%
46,137
0.4%
2,075
-7.8%
44,062
0.7%
2,552
1.1%
17.3
0.5%
5,215
5.8%
2,144
3.9%
41,386
4.8%
17,016
2.9%
93.7
5.2%
86.8
1.2%
1,702
6.2%
38,584
4.5%
5,946
5.3%
4,939
3.5%
134,819
3.7%
2015f
Q2f
Q3f
Q4f
2015f
44,272
1.5%
70,758
2.0%
9,823
2.0%
12,723
1.0%
1,109
0.7%
4.4
-6.3%
46,199
0.5%
2,045
-5.8%
44,154
0.8%
2,560
1.3%
17.3
0.4%
5,283
5.2%
2,162
3.3%
41,818
4.2%
17,112
2.3%
94.7
4.3%
86.9
0.6%
1,732
7.1%
39,115
5.5%
6,041
6.4%
4,996
4.6%
136,444
4.8%
44,011
2.1%
70,212
2.3%
9,747
2.1%
12,672
1.3%
1,105
0.9%
4.6
-15.6%
46,128
-0.7%
2,102
-16.2%
44,027
0.2%
2,548
1.2%
17.3
0.9%
5,175
5.7%
2,133
3.7%
41,116
4.8%
16,944
2.8%
93.0
2.3%
86.6
0.9%
1,689
6.7%
38,358
4.5%
5,905
5.6%
4,915
3.8%
134,155
3.5%
Q4f
2015f
Table 2. Nonfarm Wage and Salary Employment by Industry - Comanche County, Oklahoma
GOODS
QCEW Employment
2010
2011
2012
2013
Q1
2014e
Q2
Q3
Q4e
2014e
Q1f
2015f
Q2f
Q3f
Q4f
2015f
Wage & Salary Employment
% change
43,258 42,766 42,235 43,180 42,667 42,934 43,361 43,532 43,124 43,746 43,923 44,104 44,272 44,011
0.4% -1.1% -1.2% 2.2% -5.9% 2.5% 4.0% 1.6% -0.1% 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 2.1%
Private
% change
29,075 28,884 28,375 29,309 28,847 29,218 29,441 29,583 29,272 29,752 29,897 30,048 30,183 29,970
-0.9% -0.7% -1.8% 3.3% -8.6% 5.1% 3.1% 1.9% -0.1% 2.3% 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 2.4%
GOODS-PRODUCING
Goods-Producing
5,549 5,556 5,531 5,448 5,386 5,292 5,212 5,220 5,278 5,232 5,232
% change
4.0% 0.1% -0.4% -1.5% -6.3% -7.0% -6.0% 0.6% -3.1% 0.9% 0.0%
Forestry, Fishing, Logging, Ag Serv.
64
33
38
41
44
44
54
47
47
49
51
% change
-16.4% -48.4% 16.8% 6.5% 51.3% 0.0% 90.9% -51.9% 16.0% 17.0% 16.3%
Mining
109
145
131
118
121
124
113
114
118
113
110
% change
20.1% 33.0% -9.5% -10.3% -30.5% 9.9% -35.5% 3.5% 0.2% -3.5% -10.6%
Construction
1,827 1,775 1,826 1,736 1,613 1,525 1,507 1,525 1,543 1,534 1,535
% change
6.2% -2.8% 2.9% -4.9% -31.5% -21.8% -4.7% 4.8% -11.1% 2.4% 0.3%
Manufacturing
3,549 3,603 3,536 3,554 3,608 3,600 3,538 3,534 3,570 3,536 3,536
% change
2.9% 1.5% -1.9% 0.5% 6.4% -0.9% -6.9% -0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
5,226
-0.5%
52
7.8%
110
0.0%
1,530
-1.3%
3,534
-0.2%
5,211
-1.1%
52
0.0%
109
-3.6%
1,519
-2.9%
3,531
-0.3%
5,225
-1.0%
51
7.9%
111
-6.4%
1,530
-0.8%
3,534
-1.0%
SERVICES
PRIVATE
SERVICE-PROVIDING
Service-Providing
% change
Wholesale & Retail Trade
% change
Transportation & Utilities
% change
Information
% change
Financial Activities
% change
Professional & Business Services
% change
Education & Health Services
% change
Leisure & Hospitality
% change
Other Services
% change
23,526 23,329 22,844 23,861 23,461 23,926 24,229 24,363 23,995 24,520 24,666 24,822 24,972 24,745
-2.0% -0.8% -2.1% 4.5% -9.2% 7.9% 5.1% 2.2% 0.6% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 3.1%
5,707 5,677 5,693 5,997 6,196 6,293 6,226 6,233 6,237 6,240 6,241 6,242 6,239 6,241
-3.8% -0.5% 0.3% 5.3% 0.8% 6.3% -4.3% 0.4% 4.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% -0.2% 0.1%
1,381 1,278 1,188 1,323 1,232 1,264 1,272 1,280 1,262 1,285 1,294 1,306 1,319 1,301
3.4% -7.5% -7.0% 11.3% -23.0% 10.4% 2.5% 2.5% -4.6% 1.6% 2.8% 3.7% 4.0% 3.1%
558
521
540
540
559
551
544
562
554
563
569
577
585
574
-24.1% -6.6% 3.8% -0.1% 8.8% -5.7% -5.1% 13.2% 2.7% 0.7% 4.3% 5.6% 5.5% 3.5%
2,592 2,504 2,293 2,263 2,215 2,200 2,229 2,238 2,221 2,249 2,258 2,268 2,278 2,263
-3.6% -3.4% -8.4% -1.3% -11.4% -2.7% 5.3% 1.6% -1.9% 2.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9%
3,585 3,869 3,776 4,105 3,720 4,046 4,269 4,342 4,094 4,411 4,479 4,548 4,616 4,514
-6.7% 7.9% -2.4% 8.7% -26.7% 35.1% 22.0% 6.8% -0.3% 6.4% 6.2% 6.2% 6.0% 10.2%
3,883 3,783 3,902 4,047 3,933 3,961 3,969 3,963 3,957 3,980 3,993 4,011 4,028 4,003
-4.1% -2.6% 3.1% 3.7% -8.6% 2.8% 0.8% -0.6% -2.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.8% 1.7% 1.2%
5,061 4,978 4,796 4,940 4,963 4,990 5,073 5,102 5,032 5,141 5,174 5,208 5,240 5,191
6.4% -1.7% -3.7% 3.0% -6.1% 2.2% 6.7% 2.3% 1.9% 3.1% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 3.2%
759
719
656
648
643
622
646
642
638
651
655
662
668
659
16.2% -5.3% -8.8% -1.1% -4.9% -13.1% 15.4% -2.5% -1.5% 5.6% 2.5% 4.3% 3.6% 3.3%
Civilian Government
% change
14,183 13,882 13,860 13,870 13,820 13,716 13,920 13,949 13,851 13,994 14,025 14,057 14,089 14,041
3.2% -2.1% -0.2% 0.1% -0.1% -3.0% 5.9% 0.8% -0.1% 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.4%
GOVERNMENT
GOVERNMENT
Federal Government
% change
State & Local Government
% change
State Government
% change
Local Government
% change
4,714
17.0%
9,469
-2.5%
1,408
-4.4%
8,061
-2.1%
4,538
-3.7%
9,345
-1.3%
1,352
-4.0%
7,993
-0.8%
2010
2011
4,451
-1.9%
9,409
0.7%
1,414
4.6%
7,996
0.0%
2012
4,314
-3.1%
9,557
1.6%
1,484
5.0%
8,073
1.0%
2013
4,155
-6.9%
9,665
2.9%
1,493
2.4%
8,172
3.1%
4,146 4,183
-0.9% 3.6%
9,570 9,737
-3.9% 7.0%
1,518 1,479
6.7% -10.3%
8,051 8,258
-5.9% 10.3%
4,209
2.5%
9,740
0.1%
1,490
3.0%
8,250
-0.4%
Q1
2014e
Q2
Q3
Q4e
4,173
-3.3%
9,678
1.3%
1,495
0.7%
8,183
1.4%
2014e
4,208
-0.1%
9,786
1.9%
1,492
0.5%
8,294
2.1%
4,200
-0.8%
9,825
1.6%
1,495
0.8%
8,330
1.7%
4,191
-0.9%
9,866
1.7%
1,498
0.8%
8,367
1.8%
Q1f
2015f
Q2f
Q3f
4,181
-1.0%
9,908
1.7%
1,502
1.1%
8,406
1.9%
Q4f
4,195
0.5%
9,846
1.7%
1,497
0.1%
8,349
2.0%
2015f
OUTLOOK SUMMARY.
Overall, our 2015 outlook calls for another year of moderate but uneven
growth as the region stabilizes further and moves toward a new growth
trend. The outlook for Federal hiring remains weak but meaningful private
sector job growth should offset the softness. Retail activity is expected to
match the uneven growth pattern in the region. Hiring strength in the private
services sectors should offset weakness in the goods-producing sectors.
Released March 25, 2015
INVESTMENT PARTNERS
PLATINUM PARTNERS
American Electric Power/Public Service Oklahoma
Dan Mullins Nissan
GOLD PARTNERS
AT&T
Cameron University Foundation
Great Plains Technology Center
CenterPoint Energy
Comanche Memorial Hospital
BancFirst
Brad Burgess
ARVEST Bank
SILVER PARTNERS
City National Bank
Southwestern Medical Center
The Oaks Development
Comanche Home Center
Mayor Fred Fitch
EZ GO Stores – Johnson Oil Company, Inc.
IBC Bank
Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company
BRONZE PARTNERS
Home Builders Association of Southwest Oklahoma
Billingsley Ford
Liberty National Bank
Northrop Grumman
Dr. John McArthur
Hatch, Croke & Associates
CDBL, Inc.
Brent Copeland
Lawton-Fort Sill EDC is a 501 (c) (6) not-for-profit
corporation supported and led by local business
and community leaders, city government, and top
academic institutions. The Lawton-Fort Sill EDC
collaborates closely with other entities throughout
the Southwest Oklahoma/Lawton region and the
state to ensure a globally competitive, sustainable
regional economy through quality job creation.
The Lawton-Fort Sill EDC consistently partners with
the Oklahoma Department of Commerce in pursuit
of job development.
PRESIDENT AND CEO
Barry Albrecht
BOARD OF DIRECTORS
Mr. Philip D. Kennedy
Mr. Ron Nance
Mr. Paul Ellwanger
Mr. Arthur Patrick
Mayor Fred Fitch
Mr. Nathan Slate
Mr. Jacob Brox
Dr. John McArthur
Dr. Tom Thomas
Mr. Clarence Fortney
Mr. Bryan Long
Mr. Joe Gallagher
Mrs. Debra Welch
Lawton Economic Development Corporation
302 W. Gore Blvd.
Lawton, Oklahoma 73501
(580) 354-0025
(800) 872-4540
www.Lawtonedc.com
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