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Towards Coordination among Autonomous AIs
Towards Coordination among Autonomous AIs Satoshi Morinaga Data Science Research Laboratories NEC Corporation 20 June 2016 Towards Coordination among Autonomous AIs • History of Business Development based on AI • Limitation/Problem of Independent Optimization • Coordination among Autonomous AIs • Policy Recommendation Activity • Summary Our History of Business Development based on AI Advancement Descriptive AI Statistics Visualization Already Popular 2000 4 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only 2030 Visualization of Massive Data (Descriptive AI) 辞書 301A 301U 301T 301T 301T 301T 301T 301T 301t 301S 301E P ID 2005200620072008 50796 --------------------------------@--------------50796 --------------------------------@--------------辞書記号 50796 ------------------------@-------@--------------Ａ：原因薬 50796 ------------------------@-------@--------------Ｕ：治療薬 50796 --------------------------------@--------------50796 --------------------------------@--------------Ｔ：診療行為 50796 --------------------------------@--------------Ｓ：副作用傷病名 50796 --------------------------------@--------------Ｅ：辞書マッチ終 50796 ------------------------@----------------------了 --------------------------------@--------------50796 50796 50796 -------------------+-------------++------------50796 -------------------+-----+-+++--+++--+--++--++-50796 -------------------+-+---+--+--------+--++--++-50796 ---------------------+-------------------------50796 ---------------------+-+---------++------+-----+ 50796 ---------------------+-----------+-------------50796 ------------------------+----------------------50796 ------------------------+------+---------------50796 -------------------------+---+----+-------+----50796 -------------------------+-+++--+-------++---+-50796 -------------------------+---------------------50796 ----------------------------++----+---------++-- 種別 医薬品 医薬品 診療行為 診療行為 診療行為 診療行為 診療行為 診療行為 診療行為 傷病 名称 剤形 テオフィリン 内用薬 ジアゼパム 外用薬 ＣＲＰ 末梢血液一般 Ｃａ グルコース Ｎａ及びＣｌ Ｋ 像 痙攣発作 コード R 03B 2 N 03A 160054610 160008010 160021510 160019410 160021110 160021410 160008210 R 568 医薬品 医薬品 医薬品 医薬品 医薬品 医薬品 医薬品 医薬品 医薬品 医薬品 医薬品 医薬品 塩酸エプラジノ 内用薬 ン R 05C Ｌ－カルボシステイン 内用薬 R 05C フマル酸クレマスチン 内用薬 R 06Aトラネキサム酸 内用薬 B 02A 1 セフテラムピボキシル 内用薬 J01D 1 ロキタマイシン 内用薬 J01Fホスホマイシンカルシウム 内用薬 J01X 9 ドンペリドン 内用薬 A 03Fメキタジン 内用薬 R 06Aヒベンズ酸チペピジン 内用薬 R 05D 1 リン酸オセルタ 内用薬 ミビル J05B 4 クラリスロマイシン 内用薬 J01F- 性別・年代 M _05-09_ M _05-09_ M _05-09_ M _05-09_ M _05-09_ M _05-09_ M _05-09_ M _05-09_ M _05-09_ M _05-09_ M M M M M M M M M M M M _05-09_ _05-09_ _05-09_ _05-09_ _05-09_ _05-09_ _05-09_ _05-09_ _05-09_ _05-09_ _05-09_ _05-09_ Medical events viewer referring EHR, disease, medicine DB 5 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only Our History of Business Development based on AI Advancement Predictive AI Descriptive AI Statistics Visualization Machine Learning Prediction Main Battle Field Already Popular 2000 6 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only 2030 Heterogeneous Mixture Learning (Predictive AI) Learning Algorithm Predictive Modeling Automatically finds the regularities among a vast number of possible predictive models and defines the criteria that make them possible. Applies predictive formulas optimized for each data segment to deliver accurate predictions. Computations offer high transparency based on clear reasoning. Y=a1x1+ ・ ・ ・+knx3 Y=b1x2+ ・ ・ ・+hnxn Y= xn a1 x・・・ +anx a Y=a1x n + 1+ n 1+ ・ ・・・ Y= b a11x11+ + ・・ = Y ・a++ Y xannxn = Y=aa x ・・・・ + na 1x 1 ・+ Y=c1x4+ ・ ・ ・+fnxn + nx 1 x 1 a + ・ n 1 Y= 1 ・・ ・・ ・ ++a annxxn n Mon Y=k1x + ・・・ +a 1 n xn +a nx n ・ ・ ・ + =na 1x 1 Y Su A B C Sun SAL E New Machine Learning Technology Concerning Real Business Needs 7 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only Application to Building Power Prediction Temperature Day of week (7bit) Hour of day (24bit) Power of 1 hour ago -> Power consumption Our Predictor based on HML 8 Conventional Predictor based on Regression Analysis © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only Heterogeneous Mixture Learning: Forecasting Suites Product demand forecasting Price forecasting Water demand forecasting Power demand forecasting Stock forecasting Product Quality forecasting 9 Page 9 © NECCorporation Corporation 2013 © NEC 2015 2016 NEC Group Internal Use Only Our History of Business Development based on AI Advancement Prescriptive AI Predictive AI Descriptive AI Statistics Visualization Machine Learning Prediction Operations Research Optimal Action Cutting Edge Main Battle Field Already Popular 2000 10 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only 2030 Predictive RObust Optimization Framework (Prescriptive AI) HML PROOF Prediction Optimization Data Action Sun SAL E Sun SAL E Sun SAL E Massive Prediction Results Analyzing Gains and Risks Deriving Effective and Robust Action Plans Unique optimization theory invented by NEC 11 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only Electricity Procurement Planning Optimization Consumer 1 Consumer N Electricity Supply Satisfying Demands Demand Prediction Electricity Company, Aggregator, BEMS Optimization of Procurement Mixture Planning Electricity Sources with Different Characteristics Solar Panels Diesel Generators 12 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 AI Solves Global Optimization Problem Minutely, Under Given Conditions of Demands and Sources, Realizes Low-cost, Low-Risk Operation Electricity Market Batteries NEC Group Internal Use Only Prescription Solutions based on Prediction 13 Prediction Prescription Sales Volume Pricing/ Assortment Strategy Profitable Store Water Demand Purification/ Distribution Plan Efficient Water Management Traffic Demand Transit Time Transportation Operation Plan Comfortable Commutation Electricity Demand Generation/ Procurement Plan Efficient Electricity Management Production Quality/Cost Factory Operation Condition High Productivity © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only Towards Coordination among Autonomous AIs • History of Business Development based on AI • Limitation/Problem of Independent Optimization • Coordination among Autonomous AIs • Policy Recommendation Activity • Summary Limitation/Problem of Independent Optimization Consumer 1 Consumer N Electricity Supply Satisfying Demands AI assumes - Demand as given condition - Fluctuation as inevitable, Then, - Cover extremes - Large safety margin Demand Prediction Electricity Company, Aggregator, BEMS Optimization of Procurement Mixture Planning Electricity Sources with Different Characteristics Solar Panels Diesel Generators 15 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 AI Solves Global Optimization Problem Minutely, Under Given Conditions of Demands and Sources, Realizes Low-Cost, Low-Risk Operation Consumers often don’t care changing consumption timing and revealing it. Electricity Market Batteries -> Still Big room for Cost and Risk Reduction. Benefit for Everyone even if consumers were compensated NEC Group Internal Use Only Improvement by Coordinative Optimization Consumer 1 Consumer N Electricity Supply Satisfying Demands Demand Prediction Dynamical Negotiation of schedule, capacity, price with consumers Then, - Control extremes - Reduce safety margin Electricity Company, Aggregator, BEMS Optimization of Procurement Mixture Planning Electricity Sources with Different Characteristics Solar Panels Diesel Generators 16 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 AI Solves Global Optimization Problem Minutely, Negotiating Conditions of Demands and Sources, Realizes Low-cost, Low-Risk Operation Consumers are paid for changing consumption timing and revealing it. Electricity Market Batteries -> Realization of larger Cost and Risk Reduction. Benefit for Everyone NEC Group Internal Use Only Limitation/Problem of Independent Optimization Interference among Optimal Behaviors of Independent AIs, Damages Customer Values Store Equipment Plant Factory Air Condition AI Operating Heaters Light Condition AI Collision Opening Roofs (Instead of Lamps) Maintenance AI Defrosting (warming Partly and Temporarily) Operation AI Keeping Cold 17 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only Avoiding Collison by Coordination among AIs Through negotiation among AIs, Achieve Agreement on Acceptable Actuation Store Equipment Plant Factory Air Condition AI Operating Heaters Light Condition AI Negotiation Opening Roofs (Instead of Lamps) Maintenance AI Defrosting (warming Partly and Temporarily) Operation AI Keeping Cold Wait for Completion of Defrosting Lightning Lamps Instead of Opening Roofs 18 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only Towards Coordination among Autonomous AIs • History of Business Development based on AI • Limitation/Problem of Independent Optimization • Coordination among Autonomous AIs • Policy Recommendation Activity • Summary Our History of Business Development based on AI Advancement Coordinative AI Multi-Agent System Prescriptive AI Game Theory Operations Negotiation Predictive AI Research Next wave? Optimal Machine Descriptive AI Learning Action Cutting Edge Prediction Statistics Visualization Main Battle Field Already Popular 2000 20 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only 2030 Coordination among Autonomous AIs For wide use of Prescriptive AIs, and values maximization, societal implementation of coordination among the autonomous AIs will be necessary. Through negotiation and Agreement among AIs, Achieve High Efficiency, Safety, Equality Self-Driving Cars Smart Factory Office on time Private Car Regular Operation Different Owner, Different Mission Public Transportation Emergency Vehicle Avoiding Collision or Deadlock 21 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 Equipment Hospital ASAP!! Exclusive Access, Complicated Process, Detailed Deadlines Line A Line B Utilizing Limited Resources NEC Group Internal Use Only Three Necessary Conditions for Societal Implementation 1) Development of Coordination Principle -Good algorithms for negotiation and agreement among AIs 2) Operation of Coordination Infrastructure -Communication and recording Infrastructure with quality and security -Standardized protocol of for the algorithms 3) Observance of Coordination Legislation -laws or systems for preventing breach of agreement or free rider -Social agreement about sharing of responsibility for caused events -Definition of process for revision or addition of the legislations For 1, “technology” is the point. -> Free competition of research For 2 and 3, “interoperability” and “public benefit” are the points. -> Coordination among industries, Involvement of government 22 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only Towards Coordination among Autonomous AIs • History of Business Development based on AI • Limitation/Problem of Independent Optimization • Coordination among Autonomous AIs • Policy Recommendation Activity • Summary Launch of Policy Recommendation Activity Kick-off: 23 May 2016 Current Members: AIST, Fuji Electric, HITACHI, JRI, NEC, OKI, RIKEN, TOSHIBA, TOYOTA TSUSHO, U. Tokyo, Waseda U. As one of agendas in COCN (Council on Competitiveness-Nippon): Voluntary activities for policy recommendation and realization contributing to industry competitiveness of Japan. Attendants of FY 2015 general meeting from government: 6 ministers, 3 vice ministers, 4 parliamentary officials. Good Recommendations from COCN have been implemented as policies. 24 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only Example of recommendation from COCN Development of Infrastructure for services based on 3D map information FY2014,2015 Vision: Timely 3D map information will create new useful services. Coordination for infrastructure, Competition in Services. Recommendation 1： Promotion of demonstration tests l Social PoC using SIP scheme l Support for development of basic technologies Recommendation 2： Support for primary promotion body l Support for the body established by private sector Recommendation 3： Support of 3D data development and operation l Partial funding of initial cost l Provide 3D data belonging to public sector l Support for standardization Recommendation 4：Promotion of utilization l Proactive utilization in public sector l Relaxation or setting of regulation for promotion of utilization 25 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only Action Plan FY2016 l Draw a big picture (Vision/Concept), List use-cases l Survey related trends/activities, Hear to key persons l Write story of advantage and necessity of standardization FY2017 l Refine use-cases, Design stack architecture of infrastructure l Join related activities, Discuss with governments l Design role sharing between public and private sectors, organization of standardization, schedules l Finalize the recommendation Ø 3 WGs (Principle, Infrastructure, Legislation), and use-case WGs Ø From use-case, derive specification in terms of the 3 necessaries Ø 3 WGs extract stack structure of common/individual units from them 26 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only Use-Case Candidates l Infrastructure management; Electricity, Water, Transportation l Environment/Equipment control in factory, office, store,,, l Self-driving cars coordination; avoidance of collision, deadlock,, l Value-chain connection in manufacturing/logistics/retail industries l Automatic financing l Regulation in HFT exchange l ,,,,, l ,,,,, Adding cases by proposal from a member 27 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only Value-chain connection by negotiation among AIs Specification Price Deadline Other conditions Negotiation contract Request of Manufacturing Specification Price Deadline Other conditions Negotiation subcontract delivery 28 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only Automatic Financing - Negotiation between borrower AI and lender AI - Fine grain matching of amount, period, condition of loan - Efficient distribution of limited risk money in economy system Participant Repository DB Borrower： ID, biz. description, basic financial information, track records,,, Lender: ID, basic conditionality, basic information request, track records,,, borrower (1) registration to the DB AI (2) search lender iteration until conclusion (3) inform desired amount, period, condition -> <- additional information request (4) (5) send requested information -> <- offer amount, period, condition(6) Lender AI iteration until conclusion (7) agreement or collapse (8) contract, loan execution, DB update (9)repayment execution, DB update - Both AIs are executing the process with many counterparts in parallel. - Not limited to simple loan, but also insurance or real-options 29 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only Analysis of Use-Case from 3 WGs’ Viewpoint Coordination principle: -Way of finding counterpart -Way of guaranteeing corresponding real-world entity -What information is necessary for deriving global optimization -Way of confirming agreement/fullfillment Coordination Infrastructure: -Specification of communication and recording for the algorithm -What to be standardized -How to manage agreement/contract registry -Privacy risk, Required security Coordination Legislation: -What to be agreed in advance/off-line -Necessary rule/system(ex. exchange), inconsistency with current rule -Whose responsibility, relation with third-party 30 30 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only Related Trends/Activities There are many related trends and activities. However, they are not focusing on Negotiation /Coordination. National Strategy: Industrie4.0, Industrial Internet Consortium, Society 5.0,,, Committee in Government: MIC, METI, MEXT, CAO,,, Research Agenda in National Institute AIST, RIKEN, NICT,,, Private Sector: Incubation & Innovation Initiative, IVI,,,, We will watch, influence, and participate in them. 31 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only Towards Coordination among Autonomous AIs • History of Business Development based on AI • Limitation/Problem of Independent Optimization • Coordination among Autonomous AIs • Policy Recommendation Activity • Summary Summary 1/2 Advancement Coordinative AI Multi-Agent System Prescriptive AI Game Theory Operations Negotiation Predictive AI Research Next wave? Optimal Machine Descriptive AI Learning Action Cutting Edge Prediction Statistics Visualization Main Battle Field Already Popular 2000 33 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only 2030 Summary 2/2 For wide use of Prescriptive AIs, and values maximization, societal implementation of coordination among the autonomous AIs will be necessary. Through negotiation and Agreement among AIs, Achieve High Efficiency, Safety, Equality Self-Driving Cars Smart Factory Office on time Private Car Regular Operation Different Owner, Different Mission Public Transportation Emergency Vehicle Avoiding Collision or Deadlock 34 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 Equipment Hospital ASAP!! Exclusive Access, Complicated Process, Detailed Deadlines Line A Line B Utilizing Limited Resources NEC Group Internal Use Only 以下、参考資料 36 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only Report Plan Interim Report of FY2016: September, 2016 • ビジョン描画と代表的ユースケース列挙 • 数ケースに対する予備分析→対応する原理・基盤・制度の論点列挙 • 関連活動群と本テーマの位置づけ整理 • 提⾔素案 • 最終報告書の⽬標内容とそれにむけた活動計画 最終報告書提出（１７年１⽉） • ビジョン・代表的ユースケースの精緻化 • 数ケースに対する詳細分析→原理・基盤・制度のスペック仮設 • 関連活動群と本テーマの位置づけ整理精緻化 • ケース共通構造の抽出とスタック定義、標準化の有益性分析 • 提⾔案 • 次年度の⽬標と活動計画 理事会審査（２⽉）、全体会合（３⽉） 37 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only 調整原理のパターン ▌ 完全統制型 →管制塔のイメージ モデレータＡＩが個別ＡＩにとるべき⾏動を指⽰する。 必要な情報の収集と予測分析、全体最適になる⾏動組合せの導出 ▌ 情報展開型 →渋滞予報のイメージ モデレータＡＩは調整⽤の参考情報・予測結果を個別ＡＩに展開する 情報の収集と予測分析、個別ＡＩとのＱＡ対応 ▌ 取引所型 →オークションのイメージ モデレータＡＩは調整が必要な個別ＡＩや条件をマッチングする 融通・提供条件の⼀元管理、マッチングルールの適⽤ ▌ ⺠主主義型 →相対取引のイメージ 中央処理を介さず個別ＡＩ間で交渉を⾏って利害調整 モデレータＡＩは何らかのルールに従う形で個別ＡＩに分散実装 38 38 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only 相互接続性の発展段階における位置づけ ▌ 現在のIndustrie4.0やIICなどは、通信とアプリ基盤の相互接続 性確保。 ▌ 次は、AI制御の相互接続性確保→本推進テーマの対象 仕組み/制度 ・故障時の責任 ・記録/原因解析 ・標準化の要不要 AI制御 技術 ・調整原理 ・交換すべき情報 アプリ基盤 OPC UA/Predix 通信 EtherCAT 2005 2010 2016 2020 39 39 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only Society5.0 内閣府：第５期科学技術基本政策より サイバー空間とフィジカル空間（現実社会）が⾼度に融合した「超スマ ート社会」を未来の姿として共有し、その実現に向けた⼀連の取組を 「Society 5.0」※とし、更に深化させつつ強⼒に推進 ※ 狩猟社会、農耕社会、⼯業社会、情報社会に続くような新たな社会を ⽣み出す変⾰を科学技術イノベーションが先導していく、という意味を 持つ 40 40 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only 総務省：ＡＩネットワーク化検討会議 中間報告書より ▌ 「ＡＩネットワーク化」の進展段階 ▌ ① ＡＩが、他のＡＩとは連携せずに、インターネットを介するなどして単独で機能 し、⼈間を⽀援 ▌ ② ＡＩ相互間のネットワークが形成され社会の各分野における⾃動調整・⾃動調和 が進展 ▌ ③ ⼈間の潜在的能⼒がＡＩネットワークシステムにより引き出され、⾝体的にも頭 脳的にも発展 ▌ ④ ⼈間とＡＩネットワークシステムが共存 ▌ 本検討会議における検討事項 ▌ ① ⼈間とＡＩネットワークシステムが共存する未来（ＡＩネットワーク化の進展段 階の第４段階）における社会の在り⽅に関し、⽬指すべき社会像及びその基本理念 →【第２章】 ▌ ② ＡＩネットワーク化が社会・経済にもたらす影響 →【第３章】 ▌ ③ ＡＩネットワーク化が社会・経済にもたらすリスク →【第４章】 ▌ ④ ＡＩネットワーク化が社会・経済にもたらす影響・リスクに関し、今後注視し 、⼜は検討すべき事項のうち、速やかに検討に着⼿すべきもの（当⾯の課題） →【第５章】 41 41 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only 経産省：産業構造審議会 情報経済⼩委員会分散戦略ＷＧ 第⼀回事務局資料より 42 42 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only 内閣府：SIP「⾃動⾛⾏システム」 ▌ 地図、ＩＴＳ、センサー、ドライバモデル、セキュリティなどで協調 ▌ ⾃動運転技術、情報通信技術のみならずソフト⾯での検討 ▌ ＷＧ構成 l システム実⽤化WG • 地図構造化TF • HMI TF l 国際連携WG l 次世代都市交通WG ＡＩが関わる判断・操作は、 協調領域の外 43 43 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only ⽂科省：ＡＩ/ビッグデータ/IoT/サイバーセ 情報科学技術委員会（第９２回）資料より キュリティ統合ＰＪ（ＡＩＰ） 44 44 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only Incubation & Innovation Initiative 45 45 © NEC Corporation 2016 2015 NEC Group Internal Use Only
