- BioRunUp.com

Chapter 1 – Mark’s Bio
During my daily reads of the Yahoo BAC board I ended up reading a spam post about a penny
stock biotech company called Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (CTIC) and how it would rocket ‘to the
moon’ on expected FDA approval.
CTIC was trading at just 35 cents per share and the price target on these Yahoo! message
boards were $50 per share! This was too good to pass up. I did a little research on CTIC, seeing
that according to the charts it traded at $2940 per share in 2000. I was sold.
I purchased CTIC for 36 cents per share on 3/30/09. In my head I calculated its worth if it
climbed back to its former glory. Wow!
While CTIC did not eventually live up to my expectations, I did end up selling my shares on
5/6/09 for $1.17 per share, a gain of 225%. From that point on I was hooked on biotechnology
penny stocks. I reasoned If CTIC could triple…what other similar stocks were out there?
Eighteen months ago it took quite a bit of effort to find upcoming FDA catalyst dates. I stumbled
across Hemispherx BioPharma, Inc (HEB), and I purchased the stock on 05/08/09 for $1.04. per
share.
Anybody who actively trades biotech stocks should remember the drama of Hemispherx
Biopharma. They supposedly had an FDA date for their drug Ampligen, which was supposed to
help treat Chronic Fatigue Syndrome. Months went by and yet there was still no word from the
FDA. Despite the lack of FDA news, there continued to be a cult-like following of the stock, it
was a very polarizing trade. Still waiting for the alleged FDA approval, I sold my shares of HEB
a month later at $2.56 per share for a gain of over 140%.
Chapter 2 – Mike’s Bio
- May 18, 1977: John Michael “Mike” Havrilla was born in Johnstown, PA, to John W. & Barbara
Havrilla
- November 1990: Earned Eagle Scout award from Boy Scout Troop 58 in Portage, PA
- May 1995: Graduated as salutatorian from Portage Area High School, ranked second in a
class of 95 students
- August 1995 to August 1998: Attended and graduated summa cum laude from the University
of Pittsburgh at Johnstown with a Bachelor of Science (B.S.) degree, earning a biology major
and chemistry minor
- October 1995: Completed my first marathon in Johnstown, PA in 3 hours, 8 minutes for the
26.2 mile race
- April 1996: Ran the 100th Boston Marathon
- August 1997 to present: Stock trading online with TD Ameritrade
- August 1998 to December 1999: Worked a variety of temporary jobs, including medical
proofreader at Sargent’s and customer service at MetLife (both in Johnstown, PA) while
attending University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown on a part-time basis to earn credits in business
related courses. I also served as assistant junior high wrestling coach for one season at Portage
Area School District
- May 1999: Ran my personal best time of 2 hours, 54 minutes at the Pittsburgh Marathon
- January 2000 to July 2000: Began my first “real” job as a seasonal flu vaccine employee at
Wyeth Labs in Marietta, PA
- August 2000 to April 2003: Returned to college and attended classes at the University of
Pittsburgh School of Pharmacy while also working part-time (15-20 hours per week) as a
pharmacy intern at Melwood Drug on Centre Avenue in Pittsburgh until internships for pharmacy
school began in spring 2003
- April 2003 to December 2003: Graduated summa cum laude with Doctor of Pharmacy
(Pharm.D.) from University of Pittsburgh after completing seven pharmacy school intern
rotations and presenting my Pharm.D. seminar in August 2003
- December 2003 to January 2004: Worked as a graduate intern at Rite Aid in Portage, PA
- January 2004 to April 2009: Passed licensing exams to become registered pharmacist (RPh)
in PA and began working as pharmacy manager at Rite Aid in Portage, PA -- working as a
pharmacist for over five years, including a brief three-month stint in long-term care before
returning to retail pharmacy
- April 26, 2007 to May 2007: Published my first investing article on Dendreon (DNDN) as a
freelance writer for the Motley Fool website -- 48 total articles published in approximately five
weeks while also working full-time as a pharmacist
- May 2007 to August 2009: Worked in partnership with Bill Kridel of HealthShares as ETF
Innovators, LLP, to create new healthcare exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on sub-sector
stock indexes (e.g. generic drugs, health information technology, and health benefit providers)
- June 2007 to December 2010: 575 articles published at Seeking Alpha and over 2,500
followers
- March 2009 to February 2010: Managed FDA Calendar subscription service at
BioMedReports.com as co-founder of the site, tracking a database of pending FDA decisions
and clinical trial results
- April 29, 2009: Left my job as pharmacist at Rite Aid to pursue investing and website
subscription business on a full-time basis, focused on bio-medical companies with pending FDA
decisions and clinical trial results
- March 2010 to October 2010: Formed my own company, mikehavRx.com Publishing, LLC,
that included website subscription business focused on tracking and investing in companies with
FDA, clinical trial catalyst events
- October 2010 to present: Merged my website business with Mark Messier at BioRunUp.com to
provide a complete set of research tools, current information, and a member community for
investing in companies with pending FDA, clinical trial catalyst events
- November 2010: Presented at my first investing conference with Mark Messier in Las Vegas at
The Third Annual PennyStocking Conference, presented by Timothy Sykes
- December 2010: Surpassed $300,000 in trading profits (verified on Profit.ly) since late 2008
when I focused on trading bio-medical stocks with pending FDA, clinical trial events
Since being introduced to the stock market by my late grandfather as a teenager, I have been in
awe of the power of the capital markets and the fine line that divides the creation of massive
fortunes and the destruction of vast amounts of wealth on a daily basis. Going back even
further, my great grandparents who immigrated from Italy were also investors, and I have a
framed stock certificate in my office for one of the stocks they owned in June 1930, Kolster
Radio Corporation.
Stock certificate from my great grandmother (Elena Gamberini) from June 1930
Kayak fishing with my dad at Wilmore Dam for Father’s Day 2010
Largemouth bass I caught while kayak fishing at Wilmore Dam in summer 2010
Carp and ducks fighting for bread being fed to them by onlookers at Pymatuning Lake in
northwest PA near Erie
I come from a small family as both of my parents, John and Barbara, are only children and my
older sister, Angela, is my only sibling who is now married to Brian Law with one child, Jacob.
Since I have not married or started my own family yet, my time is occupied with stocks
(researching, writing, and trading), outdoor activities (kayaking, fishing, hiking, tennis, biking),
marathon training, working on new business ventures (with my friend and business partner Tyler
Trimbath), and hanging out with family and friends. I have one living grandparent, Angeline
Pieraccini, and all of my relatives live in close proximity in western Pennsylvania.
Christmas 2010 family pic (from left): mom (Barb), me, nephew Jacob, dad (John), grandma
Angeline, sister Angela, brother-in-law Brian
My first experience as an entrepreneur was at age 13, mowing lawns for several neighbors and
relatives during the summer and walking around town after snowstorms to clear driveways and
sidewalks. I also had an interest in garage sales and auctions at an early age, watching
Antiques Roadshow on PBS and more recently Pawn Stars on the History Channel. Over time, I
came to realize that researching and trading stocks was a much more exciting and prosperous
enterprise that required less time and yielded much better returns as compared to traveling
around and hunting for the next Babe Ruth rookie baseball card or some other buried (buried as
in piles of junk) treasure!
Outside of Gold & Silver Pawn Shop (where Pawn Stars show on History Channel is filmed) in
Las Vegas -- November 2010
I also began training for marathons and ran my first race in Johnstown in October 1995 with a
time of 3 hours, 8 minutes for the 26.2 mile race. I have completed a total of 21 marathons to
date, with a best time of 2 hours, 54 minutes in Pittsburgh in May 1999 and also ran in the 100th
Boston Marathon in 1996. I typically run 50-75 miles per week in four or five days and plan to
continue for as long as I am able. My most recent marathon was in October 2010 in Johnstown,
PA, in which I finished fourth place overall with my second best time of 2 hours, 57 minutes.
2010 Johnstown Marathon Results...finished fourth overall and first in age group (30-34)...My
21st marathon...finished with my second best time in 2 hours, 57 minutes for the 26.2 mile
race...
http://www.marathonguide.com/results/browse.cfm?MIDD=1172101003
Certificate of completion for my fastest marathon time of 2 hours, 54 minutes at 1999 Pittsburgh
Marathon
Crossing the finish line at 2010 Pittsburgh Marathon and a picture from my home office (both
photos from spring 2010)
I have attended the Rodman & Renshaw Annual Global Investment Conference in New York
City (September 2009) and the J.P. Morgan Annual Healthcare Conference in San Francisco
(January 2010) since becoming self-employed in April 2009. Both of these investing
conferences attract a large crowd of companies (both private and public, ranging in size from
tiny to mega-cap), investors, research analysts, and media -- providing an excellent opportunity
to network and meet the people behind the companies outside of the formal presentations.
San Francisco cable cars during my January 2010 visit for JP Morgan Healthcare Conference
Shooting guns at LAPD firing range w/ Tim (right), Paul Ahn (Tyler’s uncle, works for LAPD),
and Mark Messier (firing gun) -- Dec. 2010 LA Trip (see my gun firing video at YouTube /
mikehav77)
Just a month later in January 2011, we completed over 12 hours of filming for the instructional
DVD package in New York City at the Google building in the Livestream studios, in addition to
screen capture videos from our computers. By the following month, we finished writing this book
and launched the new BioRunDown.com email-based service to identify bio-medical companies
for sell ratings that are expected to experience stock price declines based on our research
reports and the company’s market valuation.
View of NY City skyline and Hudson River from Livestream studio during DVD filming -- January
2011
Livestock show in NY City with Mark and Tim on 1/21/11
DVD filming at Livestream studio on 1/19/11, more info at www.BiotechGuides.com
In November 2010, with my friends Tyler Trimbath (on Profit.ly as tytrim) and Eric Skutch (on
Profit.ly as ericskutch) in Las Vegas, who had never invested until I introduced them to the
BioRunUp strategy, which they learned quickly and began posting verified trading profits at
Profit.ly within a few months of investing.
View of Luxor, skyline, and mountains from Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas on New Year’s Day
2011
Hiking with my friend Ryan Slanoc at Red Rock Canyon outside of Las Vegas -- November
2010
Hanging out in Portage over 2010 Christmas holiday with friends from high school (from left):
Jeremy Burkett, Marty Slanoc, Ben Waksmunski, me, and James Eyer
A two-hour kayaking expedition on the Little Conemaugh River with Marty Slanoc on a warm
day in early April 2010 from Portage to South Fork (see the full video at my YouTube channel /
mikehav77)
BioRunUp.com team sponsor for Portage elementary girls basketball team
Portage Mustangs football scoreboard advertisement for mikehavRx.com (2010 season prior to
merger with BioRunUp.com)
BioRunUp.com team sponsor for Portage 5th & 6th grade boys basketball team
Chapter 5: How to Research & Track FDA, Clinical Trial Events
Twitter @mikehavrilla is the account I have created for a quick scan of FDA and clinical trial
related news and is useful for receiving updates on breaking news related to FDA, clinical trials,
and bio-medical stocks. This is accomplished by syncing the RSS news feeds related to FDA
and clinical trial events outlined above with my Twitter account through Google FeedBurner to
create a constant flow of news updates that includes links to the full press release.
http://twitter.com/mikehavrilla
http://twitter.com/biorunup
Example of FDA, clinical trial related news updates from Mike’s Twitter @mikehavrilla account
Example of content from Mark’s Twitter @BioRunUp account
Chapter 7: How to Research and Track Bio-Catalyst Stocks
- Financials and Stock Data: can be obtained from company website or other sources such as
Google and Yahoo! Finance, with an example of the key statistics included below for EXACT
Sciences (EXAS).
Below is an example of stock profile for new coverage of a medical device company that I
began tracking in late December 2010 based on a compelling valuation compared to its peer
group and the potential for upside / growth catalysts in the form of four pending FDA medical
device applications. The template below can be applied to create a stock profile and includes
the resources used to find the information.
1.) Company Background and Profile – information from Google / Yahoo! Finance stock
profile and the company website.
Anika Therapeutics (ANIK) develops and markets bio-polymer (based on naturally occurring
polymer hyaluronic acid or HA) joint health and tissue repair products. In December 2009, ANIK
acquired a privately held Italian company (Fidia Advanced Biopolymers or FAB) for $17 million
(M) in cash plus 1.98M shares of the Company’s common stock. ANIK currently has four
medical device submissions pending at the FDA and has provided guidance as of 11/30/10
presentation for potential marketing clearance during 1Q11.
For example, below is a selection (items #1-13) of my forum coverage and article updates for
Amarin Corp. (AMRN) over a period of four months from mid-October 2010 to mid-February
2011 with over 450 replies and approximately 13,000 views for this very popular stock notes
thread on the BioRunUp.com members forum. The stock research and updates are highly
dependent upon FDA and clinical trial catalyst events and developments, which forms the basis
for conducting further research on stocks and the rationale for owning portfolio stocks or
tracking watch list stocks for potential buys in the near future.
The stock research case study presented above for AMRN is heavily focused on clinical
development timelines and events as a development-stage company in Phase 3 testing for its
lead omega-3 fatty acid product candidate. Below is a case study for a small-cap generic drug
company, Lannett (LCI), which generates sales and profits in addition to several pending FDA
decisions for a New Drug Application (NDA) and several abbreviate New Drug Applications
(ANDAs) for generic drug products.
Below is an excellent example of an investor relations website page for Amarin Corp. (AMRN).
SECFilings.com
A free (ad based) website that is quite handy is SECfilings.com. With a free account to this
website you can track up to 10 different companies and their SEC filings. What makes this site
unique is that they will automatically send you an email whenever your selected company
creates any type of filing with the FDA. This is can be extremely important as you will receive
the information at the same time as the market. See below for a screenshot of our personal
SECFilings watchlist and account.
StockCharts.com
There is something beautiful about clean and easy to read charts. One of the best sites to view
these charts is at StockCharts.com. Their charts are simple, clean, and easy to use. Daily and
Weekly views of charts are free. Premium accounts will allow you to break down charts and
annotate them.
FreeStockCharts.com
Another great free charting tool is at FreeStockChart.com.
Government Websites
You can directly to the source to obtain and read SEC filings using the EDGAR system on the
SEC’s website at http://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml
Chapter 8: Bio-Catalyst Stock Trading Strategies and Tips
Company Pipeline- In every biotech website I have ever visited companies will list their
‘Pipeline” or list of products that they have in development. A pipeline will show what other
products a company is developing, and what phase of development they are in. Generally, the
more products a company has in its pipeline and their indications, the better the company can
weather adversity. An example pipeline is included below for Pacira Pharmaceuticals (PCRX).
While developing the Run-Up method it became clear that the best way to make consistent
gains and lower risk was to sell before the catalyst event occurs. However it become clear that
even when a drug received FDA approval there would be a spike in share price, and then as
time passed the share price would bleed down. Lets take a look at an example of this with
Somaxon Pharmaceuticals (SOMX).
In most cases a company will announce a conference call in a week or shorter, however it is
much more likely that results will be released with no warning in the form of a press release
followed by a conference call. However at times there are amazing opportunities created by a
company announcing a specific date months in advance. Take look at what Exact Sciences
(EXAS) did in the second half of 2010:
EXAS blessed the biotech trading world by publishing the exact date of data release three
months in advance. This presented traders an excellent opportunity to get in early, ride the
price up, and time to decide how long they wanted to hold a position. EXAS ran up from the
high $3 range to the mid $8’s before releasing its positive clinical data in late October.
Unfortunately situations like this are rare, but they do occur.
ASCO receives thousands of submissions for presentations and selects the abstracts it will
allow to be presented some time in mid-March. By the end of March most companies are
notified of the selection and they will generally issue a press release about the selection and
highlight of their companies data release. For an example from the 2010 ASCO conference see
the press release issued by Delcath Systems (DCTH) on 4/13/10.
“NEW YORK, April 13 -- Delcath Systems, Inc. (Nasdaq: DCTH), a medical technology
company testing its proprietary treatment system for primary and metastatic cancers to the liver,
announced today that the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) has accepted an
abstract for oral presentation of Delcath's Phase III Trial Data comparing percutaneous hepatic
perfusion with melphalan (PHP-mel) to the best alternative care for patients with hepatic
metastases from ocular or cutaneous melanoma for ASCO's 2010 Annual Meeting, to be held
June 4-8, 2010 at McCormick Place in Chicago.”
This press release kick started a run-up that resulted in a gain of over 70%, and is an excellent
example of the kind of momentum that can be created by a conference play. Small-cap
companies generally experience the largest percentage boost in share price, as traders will
hope to own the ‘Cinderella’ of the conference.
To better understand, take a look at the options matrix below for MannKind (MNKD) (red boxes
have been added).
At first glance the above image can look incredible confusing. However break it down first by
Calls or Puts. Take a look at the red box on the left side of the screen. If you would like to
purchase the right to BUY MNKD on May 21st at $5, it will cost you $.69 per contract (or $69 for
100 shares).
Now look to at the box on the right side. If you purchased these options you would be
purchasing the option to SELL MNKD
at $5 on February 19th, it will cost you $.29 per contract (or $29 for 100 shares).
So before a trader purchases options there a few things that must be considered:
- Do you believe the stock is going to go up or down? (Call or Put)
- When do you expect the stock to change in price? (Date)
- What price do you expect the stock to go to? (Price)
- How long do you expect to hold the option? (Expiration Date)
- Does a major catalyst fall before your options are set to expire? (IV)
- How expensive are the options compared to the current share price? (Premium)
Below you will see an illustration of a typical share order through TD Ameritrade:
Searching for under the radar bio-catalyst stocks
Related to the bio-catalyst, rotating run-up strategy is searching for under-the-radar biopharmaceutical or medical device companies that are largely unnoticed by investors and the
research analyst community. There is no magic formula for identifying these companies, but
such stocks often trade at low average trading volumes (e.g. 100,000 shares or less per day)
and below the mid-point of their 52-week stock price range.
Investing in under-the-radar stocks at 2-3 months ahead of their FDA or clinical trial catalyst
events can be an effective method of minimizing risk while maximizing potential reward in the
form of share price gains as the catalyst date approaches and such stocks attract more
attention from investors and possibly research analyst coverage.
A classic example of an under-the-radar stock is medical device company Nephros (NEPH),
which traded at less than 10 cents in early 2009 (through May) and peaked at over $2 per share
within less than six months based on greater awareness of its pending FDA 510(k) decisions for
medical devices associated with dialysis and filtration. As a follow-up and in support of short to
medium trading philosophy focused on specific catalyst events rather than the old model of “buy
and hold” as a long-term investor, shares of Nephros currently trade back around the 10-cent
range in early 2011 as part of a highly volatile two-year round trip trade from lows to highs back
to lows again.
Chapter 9: How to Best Utilize BioRunUp.com
While we have discussed our methods and research; we also understand that many traders
simply do not have the time to be able to research in great detail. This is why we have
developed BioRunUp.com. We are proud of the trading community that we have assembled.
We continue to develop the site and add useful features. We encourage you to go through this
chapter step by step to get the most out of your BioRunUp.com subscription.
Participate in our Live Web Events
Recently we have added live Webinars for our subscribers. We plan on hosting these twice a
month. This will allow our subscribers to in openly interact with us and ask questions and
discuss bio-catalyst stock trades and news with us live. Each live Web event will be recorded
and saved in our video library for future reference.
http://www.biorunup.com/categories/webinars
Participate in Live Chat
We have developed our chat so that our subscribers can interact and exchange ideas live, in
real time, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The chat is very active during the trading day with an
average 60-80 traders online at http://www.biorunup.com/categories/chat
Sign up for our Private Twitter Feed
For paid subscribers, we offer a private twitter feed (@biorunuptrades), where we post instant
notification of our trades. For many this serves as an alert service. We highly encourage all
trades to fully understand what and why they are buying before placing an order. We do not
want traders to blindly follow our trades, as this may result in poorly timed trades. (buying on an
artificial spike caused by BioRunUp subscribers)
http://www.twitter.com/BioRunUpTrades
View the Lessons in our Video Library
We often post video lessons on our site to help explain a concept or a trade. When we release
a video we ‘tag’ the article as a video so that all our videos can be located in one place. Click
on the “Video Library” link in the “Members Section” on the left side of the page to view a list of
our videos.
http://www.biorunup.com/categories/videos
Register and Participate in the Forum
One of the most valuable tools we have is our members forum. Here you can interact with
hundreds of other traders and view our stock notes and trades. Due to some long and boring
technical reasons, a SEPARATE user ID is required for the forums. You need to create this
account on the forums and email your new user ID to [email protected]. We will activate it,
and notify you of access access. We realize this process is an extra step, but it only must be
done once.
http://www.biorunup.net/forum/
FDA and Clinical Events Calendar
One of the original features of BioRunUp.com is the FDA and Clinical Catalyst Calendar. To
learn more about an item, click on the event on the calendar. On the pop-up box, click on the
link to download a copy of the Bio-Analysis Report or the Valuation Report in PDF format. Most
of the events on the calendar are FDA related, as it is not often that a clinical catalyst has a
specified and concrete date, although this is possible. The Calendar is free to all, but the reports
available for download are for paid subscribers only.
http://www.biorunup.com/categories/FDA_Calendar
Sign up for SMS Text Alerts
We highly recommend that all paid subscribers activate SMS (text) message alerts for their
mobile phone. While we spend most of the trading day staring at a computer screen and
scanning the news, we know that most of our subscribers do not have the same opportunity.
Enter in your cellphone number and confirm to activate your SMS alerts. This system is not set
to pump stocks but to pass on time sensitive critical information regarding FDA and clinical
catalysts such as: FDA Prroval/ CRL, FDA Panels, Dilutions, Partnerships, Clinical Results, and
Major Insider Buying/ Selling.
http://www.biorunup.com/categories/SMS_alerts
View the BioRunUp Newsfeed
We have put together an amazing source of real-time news information from a variety of
sources. Our topics include:
BioRunUp Articles
FDA News
Clinical News
General Market News
NDA News (New Drug Applications)
Pharmaceutical Industry News
Using this tool can help you to educate yourself on recent market activity focused on biopharmaceutical companies.
http://www.biorunup.com/categories/news
Analyze the Clinical and Regulatory Catalyst Calendar Spreadsheet
Subscribers have access to a spreadsheet file and an embedded table that integrates Google
Docs and Google Finance with auto-updates every five minutes and delayed (20-minute) market
data for companies with FDA and clinical trial catalyst events. Subscribers can create
customized, on-demand reports from this information, with updates posted throughout the day,
along with the ability to view or download the spreadsheet file that can be sorted by any of the
columns.
This resource is one of the best ways to stay ahead of the curve through a DAILY scan over the
bio-catalyst spreadsheet events (including approximately 400 total events and 10-15 daily
updates). This spreadsheet is where many of the trades posted by Mark and Mike originate
from, providing members with the ability to discover the next winning, under-the-radar biocatalyst stock before the masses and make large percentage gains.
View our Trading Accounts
Mark’s Trading Account:
http://www.biorunup.com/categories/trading_account
Mike’s Trading Account:
http://www.biorunup.com/categories/mikehavrx
Catalyst Roadmap
With so much information available to our traders we have condensed a basic outline of our
planned trades into what we call our ‘Catalyst Roadmap’. This outline is a continuous work in
progress of our planned trades over the next 6 months. It helps our subscribers get a general
idea of what are the tradable catalysts in the foreseeable future.