Strathcona Update Jan. 2013
Transcription
Strathcona Update Jan. 2013
Strathcona Update Jan. 2013 “Cautionary Spending” Gerry Gabinet, Director Randy Richards, Manager, Commercial Development Jordan Rumohr, Manager Industrial Development Economic Development and Tourism Strathcona County Agenda Who we are: What is Canada GDP compared to world ? Growth outlook Canada‐ Alberta‐ Edmonton CMA Stats Canada Update Our new brand What we are: Retail Market Update Alberta Industrial Heartland Updates Summary 1/15/2013 2 World Economy – IMF, World Bank, CIA World Facts Source: Angus Watt Realtor’s Association 2013 Economic Outlook Forecasts: Alberta 2013 2014‐2020 CIBC 3.2% 3.3% BMO 3.4% TD 3.1% 3.1% ATB 3.0% 3.5% RBC 3.5% 4.2% C of C 3.5% CMHC 2.9% GOA 3.8% 3.0% Metro Edmonton 2013 John Rose (Economist) Edmonton 3.2% Edmonton CMA 4.0% CMHC Net migration 16,200 Job Growth 2.0% Edmonton Real Estate Board (housing) 2.0% Stats Canada Update February 2012 Canada 5.9% Alberta 10.8% Edmonton 11.2% Calgary 10.9% Strathcona 12.1% Edmonton CMA 11.8% Calgary CMA 12.9% Since 2006 •Yellowhead County •Lethbridge County 1/15/2013 8 Strathcona Sherwood Park Rural Growth Urban Rural Total Last 20 years Average rate 92,490 64,733 27,757 9,979 13.9% 8.2% 12.1% 62.9% 2.45% Our New Brand: Living. Refined There’s also a humble heartbeat that reminds us of more constrained beginnings, and grounds us and our children in reality rather than artificiality. We are salt of the earth in agriculture roots and environmental stewardship that continue to nourish life and living. We’re not exotica and New York City. We’re something more. Truth, beauty, and goodness pulse here. There’s serenity of escapism. Recreation and healthy lifestyle are a drumbeat. Knowing neighbors' still matters. Giving back and paying it forward matters even more. We are leadership, innovation, pursuit of excellence, creativity, potential, enablement, and empowerment. We are human powered. Strathcona County. You owe it to yourself. 1/15/2013 9 Money Sense Magazine 2012: Recognition for Strathcona County Best Place to raise kids #1 Family Income across Canada #4 Best Place find a job #1 *From over 190 municipalities across Canada Population over 10,000 10 Strathcona Growth 120000 66,295 84,722 82,511 94,253 96,076 89,382 87,998 85,521 92,490 64,733 100000 101,545 99,722 97,899 72,706 71,103 69,500 67,897 62,850 61,660 56,845 58,754 59,409 60000 Total Urban Rural 28,839 28,619 28,399 28,178 27,958 27,757 26,532 26,338 26,112 20000 25,968 40000 25,666 Population 80000 0 2006 2007 2008* 2009* 2010 2011 Year 1/15/2013 11 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Canada vs United States for Home Equity Source: Angus Watt Realtor’s Association 2013 Edmonton vs Canada MLS Housing Pricing Source: Realtor’s Association Edmonton 2013 Edmonton CMA MLS Pricing 2012 Source: Realtor’s Association Edmonton 2013 Sherwood Park Sales and Pricing Housing industry 7.8% Alberta GDP- $22 B- 270,800 employed Annualized Building Permit Activity to December 2012 Sherwood Park 12.7% 1/15/2013 21 Industrial Update Q‐4 Avison Young 1/15/2013 22 Strathallen Redevelopment dm a o Br r o o Basel ine 1/15/2013 23 1/15/2013 24 1/15/2013 25 Millennium Ridge 1/15/2013 26 New Buildings Trans America 1/15/2013 27 Broadview Centre Liberty Village ‐SCR Real Estate East Sherwood Chevrolet Broadmoor 3rd Ford new vehicle Dealer in Canada 1/15/2013 30 Lakeland Drive‐ Best Western, Tims, Fire Hall 1/15/2013 31 Over 75 % of industrial land under contract 1/15/2013 32 Emerald Hills – Full Build out 15,000 people around 2017‐20. Draft Plans for new 25m pool and all weather sporting fields 1/15/2013 33 Confirmed Retail Emerald – Grand Opening October 6, 2012 Golf Town 2013 Visions Bed Bath Beyond Winners Wal Mart Super Centre Reitmans The Shoe Company Town Shoes Opa Quiznos Ardene Press’d Sandwiches 1/15/2013 34 Bouclair Petsmart‐ opened Dollarama Wine and Beyond Tony Romas Chatters Stokes Osh Kosh Town Shoes Tommy Gun’s Jones New York Binhs Nails ORSFR Program Artificial Turf Emerald Hills Retail Concept Plans: Co op Gas Station Tim Horton’s RBC CIBC Subway Red Robin Sobeys 2013 1/15/2013 36 Centre in the Park Reflections Building 1/15/2013 37 Reflections: Draft Concept 1/15/2013 38 Target: Spring 2013 Sherwood Park Mall 40th Birthday 1/15/2013 39 Construction 2012-13: Opening 2013 Fire hall #6 location: Bison Way (near Sherwood Drive and Lakeland Drive) 1/15/2013 40 Transit Station ‐ Construction 2012‐13 Parking for 1200 vehicles 1/15/2013 41 Broadmoor Heritage Plaza Over 70,000 sq.ft retail “Stepped” development with water feature, patios Access from Broadmoor Blvd. 1/15/2013 42 1/15/2013 43 http://www.strathcona.ca/departments/Economic_Develop ment_and_Tourism/property-locator.aspx Strathcona Community Hospital Phase 1‐ completion 2013 Phase 2‐ expected to start late 2013 (subject to provincial budget approval) 1/15/2013 45 1/15/2013 46 Thomas Consulting Retail Market Study ‐ Updating 2013 1/15/2013 47 Updating the Retail Market Study 2013 1/15/2013 48 Laurin Industrial Area List pricing from $375,000 per acre to $525,000 per acre 1/15/2013 49 NE Anthony Henday Planning Eight interchanges Nine Flyovers Two River Structures 47 Total Bridge Structures Completion date of 2016 1/15/2013 50 Anthony Henday Plans for SP 1/15/2013 51 1/15/2013 52 Anthony Henday/ Sherwood Drive 1/15/2013 53 Lakeland Drive Construction Industrial – Impact of Oil and Gas in Alberta Indirect Impact of Oil and Gas Alberta 1/15/2013 60 Existing Industrial Base Canada’s largest hydrocarbon processing center home to 15 world scale facilities responsible for 43% of national basic chemical manufacturing Major center for – Petroleum Refining (422 Mbdp capacity) – Bitumen Upgrading (255 Mbdp expanding to 400 Mbpd capacity) – Petrochemical Production (Ethylene, Styrene, Fertilizers) – Natural Gas Fractionation and Processing – A variety of other specialty products Approximately $1 billion in annual expenditure (excluding feedstocks) 7,500 full time direct employees 1/15/2013 61 Turn Around Activity Maintenance turn arounds at existing plant involve thousands of contractors and millions in local expenditures – Agrium Redwater (2013) – Shell (Annually starting 2013‐2015) – Suncor 2013 1/15/2013 62 Pipelines in Strathcona County We have over 2800 km of high pressure pipelines between 10” to 36” in diameter Our urban area of Sherwood Park (population of over 67,000) has 17 pipelines adjacent to residential areas Products: – Crude oil, condensate/diluents, natural gas, butane, ethane, hydrogen 1/15/2013 63 Pipelines and Terminal Activities Kinder Morgan‐ Expansion of terminal to support Trans‐ Mountain enhancement (recent update $5.4 B – 36” line) Enbridge Pipelines – Terminal and pipeline starting point for Northern Gateway project. New tanks proposed at Stonefell (8‐12).Pipelines up North Interpipeline – Polaris diluent terminal and pipeline expansion Access Pipeline – 42” dilbit pipeline to add 350,000 bpd capacity (potential for future expansions) Keyra Energy – Diluent pipeline connecting their operation in Strathcona area and Fort Saskatchewan to the Heartland Trans Canada Grand Rapids Pipeline – Grand Rapids Pipeline Project and Tank Farm AIH. 24” Diluent and 42” Bitumen 1/15/2013 64 1/15/2013 65 Upgrading Project Estimates Estimates on additions to upgrading capacity are based on the following assumptions regarding new projects or expansions to existing projects by 2030. New Upgraders – North West Upgrading 150,000 bbl/day (new) 1st phase sanctioned – Voyageur 200,000 bbl/day (new) under review – Sasol GTL facility Proposed 48,000 bbl/day (further information later) Expansions/Debottlenecking (*) – – – – – Syncrude Suncor CNRL Shell Scotford Nexen/OPTI 100,000 bbl/day 100,000 bbl/day 100,000 bbl/day 85,000 bbl/day 50,000 bbl/day (*) Notes increase in upgrading capacity beyond existing levels 1/15/2013 66 Spread between WTI – Brent‐ Western Canada Select . The “Crack” “An even bigger concern for Canadian oil producers than the discount between WTI and Brent is the price differential between WTI and Western Canadian Select–the benchmark price for western Canadian oil exports to the U.S. It’s trading around $60 a barrel, a third less than WTI and 45 per cent lower than Brent.” “Do the math on some 2 million barrels a day of heavily discounted oil exports and suddenly you’re talking about an enormous wealth transfer from Canadian oil producers to American refineries. (Note, the subsidy is pocketed by U.S. refiners, not motorists, who don’t see the Canadian discount when filling up at the pumps.) What if Canadian oil was getting world prices? At the current Brent‐Western Canadian Select spread of roughly $50 a barrel, you’re in the neighbourhood of $100‐million a day. That equates to foregone revenues of more than $35‐billion over the course of a year.” Jeff Rubin (Article in Globe and Mail Monday Jan. 7, 2013) 1/15/2013 68 Shell Refinery Shell Upgrader Expansion One Shell Chemicals Construction storage 1/15/2013 69 Sasol Update September 5 Optioned the site from Total. Future study required for 48,000 bpd facility. If built 5,000 construction jobs, 500 fulltime jobs. 1/15/2013 70 Project Timeline FEED sanction on this project postponed. Louisiana GTL and Cracker has received their FEED sanction. Alberta still in process 1/15/2013 71 1/15/2013 72 1/15/2013 73 Apps for understanding the Oil Sands • The Facts on Oil Sands – There’s an app for that! • Have you been looking for a better way to communicate facts, clear up misconceptions and emphasize benefits about Canada’s oil sands? Now, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers is please to provide the information from their Oil Sands fact book in the form of a comprehensive, handy and always current smartphone app. • The app is available for free download to Apple and BlackBerry devices. Downloading is easy. From your mobile device, simply click the links below to access the app or search “oil sands” or “CAPP” from the Apple or BlackBerry app stores. • BlackBerry: http://bit.ly/Hhk7N5 • Apple: http://bit.ly/zwsRWi 1/15/2013 75 Tour of Alberta – Heartland Portion Sept. 4 Strathcona is under consideration for start of the road race Tourism is $5.5 B in Alberta with over 92,600 direct jobs (2010) Strathcona Summary 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Growth in the community 3.0% 2013 Labour shortages increasing Turning into a regional centre. New housing choices for 2013 Opportunity for new retail choices Oil Sands related projects continuing but at a “cautionary level” 1/15/2013 77 ““The most important benefit of population size and growth is the increase it brings to the stock of useful knowledge. Minds matter economically as much as, or more than, hands or mouths.” Julian Simon For more information, please contact: Gerry Gabinet, Director Economic Development & Tourism [email protected] Randy Richards, Manager Commercial Development [email protected] Jordan Rumohr, Manager Industrial Development [email protected] 1/15/2013 78