Status quo on the sea – Examining reclama=on and building ac=vi=es

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7th South China Sea Interna<onal Conference Status quo on the sea – Examining reclama5on and building ac5vi5es Rukmani Gupta 23 November 2015 The Spratlys – occupants and claimants States undertaking reclama5on •  Taiwan, Vietnam and China undertake land reclama<on ac<vi<es to expand territory in the South China Sea region, with China’s efforts the most intensive. •  Land reclama<on provides a less conten<ous method of increasing presence in the region as it does not involve the crea<on of completely new facili<es. •  Under UNCLOS 60(8), ar<ficial installa<ons do not have the same status as natural islands and do not have any territorial sea. Neither do they affect a state’s territorial sea boundary, EEZ, or con<nental shelf boundary. Taiwanese efforts •  Taiwan occupies 1 major land mass, Taiping (Itu Aba) Island. •  Surface work during 2005 and 2006 resulted in the installa<on of a 1,200 m runway. •  Land reclama<on began in April 2014 to expand the island’s port facili<es and is ongoing. Taiping Island 8 June 2015 Taiping Island, Taiwan
10.373295 N 114.361515 E
Image Dates: 8 June and 5 October 2015 / Pleiades
5 October 2015 N Harbour infrastructure under construc5on Slipways nearly complete Southern seawall complete New terrain © CNES 2015, Distribution Airbus DS
© CNES 2015, Distribution Airbus DS
Taiping Island 5 October 2015 Seawall under construc5on N Slipway Slipway Sediment barge Possible concrete plant Terrain crea5on in progress Dredge barge © CNES 2015, Distribution Airbus DS
Taiping Island Taiping Island, Taiwan
10.377034 N 114.365314 E
Image Date: 5 October 2015 / Pleiades
5 October 2015
N Airfield infrastructure expanded 1200 metre runway Terrain clearing underway Harbour expansion underway © CNES 2015, Distribution Airbus DS
Vietnamese efforts •  4 features show signs of land reclama<on ac<vity with ac<vity con<nuing at two sites. •  Central London Reef: land reclama<on nearly doubled the size of the island from 8,600 m2 to 17,000 m2. •  Southwest Cay: land reclama<on added a small terrain extension and harbour facili<es. •  West London Reef: land reclama<on added nearly 75,000 m2 of terrain around an exis<ng structure. •  Sand Cay: land reclama<on increased the size of the island from 50,000 m2 to 62,000 m2. West London Reef 21 November 2014
N Construction materials
Original facility
Newly constructed terrain
Original structures
Imagery data © 2015 Google Earth
Sand Cay 30 March 2012
3 November 2014
N Newly constructed terrain
Chinese efforts •  Seven of China’s 10 occupied Spratly features are undergoing expansion to varying degrees. •  Cuarteron Reef, Gaven Reefs, Hughes Reef, Johnson South Reef, and Mischief Reef are receiving ar<ficial islands along with new facili<es. •  Fiery Cross Reef and Subi Reef represent the largest expansion projects. Gaven Reefs 31 March 2014
7 August 2014
N Original structure
Original structure
Artificial island
No activity evident
Dredged channel
Gaven Reefs 13 November 2014
30 January 2015
Helipad
New facility
N Original facility
New construction
Possible new helipad
Cement plant
New facilities under construction
Dredged harbour
Re-profiled terrain
Hughes Reef 24 January 2015
N Pre-existing structure
Facility under construction
Ro/ro pier
Cement plant
Johnson South Reef 24 January 2015
N Dredged harbour
New facility
RO/RO pier
New facility
New facility
Original facility
Helipad
Mischief Reef 19 July 2014
30 January 2015
N Sediment piping
Existing channel
Existing structure
Existing channel
Sediment
Dredge
Existing structure
Existing channel
Dredged channel
19 July 2014
N Mischief Reef 9 July 2015
Existing structure
Fiery Cross Reef 14 November 2014
Sediment piping
Original structure
Fiery Cross Reef 6 February 2015
Original structure
23 March 2015
Runway installation
Dredging activity
Construction activity
New terrain
Dredging activity
Fiery Cross Reef 23 March 2015
Runway path
Runway installation
Graded area
Taxiway path
Fiery Cross Reef Fiery Cross Reef, South China Sea
09.550511 N 112.892455 E
Image Date: 20 September 2015 / Pleiades
20 September 2015
Runway markings complete Helipad markings present Seawall construc5on ongoing New construc5on Ongoing construc5on New construc5on Subi Reef Sensor dome
N Existing structure
Pier
Multiple antennas
Helipad
Channel
17 January 2015
Subi Reef 6 February 2015
5 March 2015
N New terrain
New terrain
Dredging activity
Dredging activity
Existing structure
Dredging activity
Sediment deposition
New terrain
Subi Reef 17 April 2015
17 January 2015
N N © CNES 2015, Distribution Airbus DS
© Digital Globe
Facility comparison Gaven Reefs
30 January 2015
Hughes Reef
24 January 2015
N © CNES 2015, Distribution Airbus DS
Non naval fleet •  Two 10,000 ton Chinese coast guard cuèrs under construc<on at Changxing-‐Jiangnan near Shanghai are well-‐
suited for long-‐range patrol of China’s South China Sea claims. 21 April 2015
Haijing 2901 PSO
Haijing 3901 PSO
Type 726 LCAC
Military assets TAIWAN Kang ding class light frigate C-‐130 P-‐3C VIETNAM CHINA Tarantul V class corvece Type 054A (‘Jiangkai II’ class) frigate Gepard class frigate Type 071 (‘Yuzhao’ class) LPD Ka-‐28 J-‐11B Changing the status quo •  Land reclama<on and building ac<vity paving the way for rapid militarisa<on of mari<me features •  Faced with the might of the PLAN, other claimants are also inves<ng in naval modernisa<on •  Concomitant entrenchment of na<onalist posi<ons over respec<ve claims •  Crea<on of a posi<ve feedback loop wherein these dynamics reinforce each other •  A change in the status quo – effec<vely curtailing ac<vity hitherto enjoyed by claimants -‐ is already underway

Status quo on the sea – Examining reclama=on and building ac=vi=es

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